Wow, I didn’t know Nick Blackburn was having such a good season.

I expect CC to be much better in the 2nd half.  Not like last season, but still very good.

Wow, I didn’t know Nick Blackburn was having such a good season.

That surprised me too.  I haven’t heard his name at all.

Maybe I’m out of touch, but there are more and more names I’ve never heard of on this list.  WTF are Mazzaro and Rzepczynski?

I think one is a type of plum tomato and the other is one of Superman’s routine nemesis.

Austin Jackson with a bomb triple to right center in the Triple-A AS game.  Apparently they employ local teenagers to direct the camera crew because we could only see the end of it - the camera was on the right field foul line during the swing for some unknown reason.

Apparently they employ local teenagers to direct the camera crew

Stimulus in action!

On my Reader, from Jennings blog, one of the headlines read, “Yankees sign Fossum to start Saturday,” without further exposition.

Must be a practical joke.

Every now and those feeders have a bunch of old headlines in it. Happens for the LoHud feeder sometimes, too.

Phew.

I love that the bottom three pitchers on this list ranked as follows in VORP among AL pitchers just TWO YEARS AGO:

Carmona - 2nd (65.9)
Wang - 10th (50.4)
Kazmir - 15th (46.7)

Their need for starting pitching is becoming so pressing that it’s hard to understand why they don’t start stretching Hughes out. As Girardi demonstrated on Saturday, no matter how good Hughes is in the pen, if he isn’t used when the game is still winnable, his presence there is pointless.

SG, when you do the relievers, can you also put a ranking on them. With the position players, because there weren’t so many, it was easy to see where the top, middle, and bottom were. But with the starters, it gets a little more difficult, which I assume the relievers will be even mo’ lengthy.

Why start Hughes when you have a prospect like Sergio Mitre on the horizon?

“Why start Hughes when you have a prospect like Sergio Mitre on the horizon?”

And since we know that Wang will never start again for the Yankees.

Don’t they have to go forward with the assumption that Wang either won’t start again this year or won’t be vintage Wang again this year?

I’m not sure. But I am sure that they SHOULD go ahead with starting Phil Hughes.

SG, when you do the relievers, can you also put a ranking on them.

Sure.  I added rankings for the starters too.

Wow, Kazmir-Wang-Carmona bringing up the rear.  You can predict baseball, Suzyn.

Can’t.  CAN’T.  Goddamnit.

There is another off day today???  I am fiending for Yankees Baseball.

There is another off day today???

Yeah, kinda wierd.  I suppose 4 days off could help them, especially as some key players (Posada, Jeter, ARod, Matsui) are all on the wrong side of 30, most of them by quite a bit.

Don’t they have to go forward with the assumption that Wang either won’t start again this year or won’t be vintage Wang again this year?

Don’t even have to be like that. Just that CMW won’t be ready for 5 starts. In which case, Hughes should be stretched. And CMW can rehab or bullpen properly so that he has a chance to come back strong (especially if the other pieces of the rotation ain’t the strongest either).

My laziness thanks you SG.

There is another off day today???  I am fiending for Yankees Baseball.

I like baseball.  I wish it a speedy return.

D-Train > Dice-K

I’ll admit I didn’t see that coming.

Lots of young pitching up there at the top.  Hope that keeps the “Joba-in-the-pen” crowd quiet or “trade young pitchers for Halladay” crowd quiet.  But it won’t.

It will be a great time when Joba and Hughes are near the top with CC and AJ not far behind.

And while Mitre is by far the best pitching prospect in the upper minors right now, I’m starting to get ready for Zach McAllister.

  I suppose 4 days off could help them, especially as some key players (Posada, Jeter, ARod, Matsui) are all on the wrong side of 30

I would think the marginal benefit of a day off would be higher if it came in the middle of a stretch of games rather than after 3 straight off days.  But maybe not.

Vin Mazzaro is part of the small army of project SPs on the A’s.  From what I hear he’s the most “project”-y of them.

Mark Rzep*$)^@ just came up for the Blue Jays and has pitched fairly well in two starts so far taking Scott Richmond’s rotation spot.

The things you know when you play fantasy baseball…

I would think the marginal benefit of a day off would be higher if it came in the middle of a stretch of games rather than after 3 straight off days.  But maybe not.

Probably a case-to-case basis.  E.g. if a player is nursing a minor injury like a sore ankle an extra day off can do nothing but help.  For just regular rest/relaxation…yeah, I don’t know which would help more.  I’m a little younger than the guys above (33), and I know *I* could certainly use 4 straight days off!

Actually, 32 almost 33.  The Alzheimer’s seems to be setting in already…

I’m cautiously optimistic that the extra days off - which effectively amount to skipping a turn through the rotation - will help Joba. He seemed to be getting progressively worse, which may indicate he was just tired. Is it possible he spent too much time over the winter basking in his celebrity status and didn’t devote enough time to conditioning?

I was surprized to see CC ranked over Beckett but, unfortunately, isn’t Beckett trending upwards, as is Lester and Burnett, whereas CC doesn’t seem to have any discernible trend line.

Fantasy baseball is pretty interesting that way, Josh.

I’ve always been sort of plugged in, but my brother never was - until he started playing fantasy baseball. Now he’s mentioning guys I don’t even know! It’s great, though, as it gives me someone to talk about baseball with - as he had pretty much stopped following the game around 2002 (getting back into it with fantasy baseball in 2005).

I was surprized to see CC ranked over Beckett but, unfortunately, isn’t Beckett trending upwards, as is Lester and Burnett, whereas CC doesn’t seem to have

In Beckett/CC, I am assuming they’re functionally even, with CC marginally ahead because kicking ass for an extra six innings counts for something. Beckett’s totals are a little misleading because of his uncharacteristically awful start to the season, but I’ve nothing to add.

OTOH, I can’t respect any stat that favors Burnett over Lester. Does it ignore K/BB rates completely???

I wondered if there were tacit park adjustment factors making up the CC/Beckett difference.

RE: Halladay trade rumors

From what I’ve read, the Jays want potential suitors to eat Vernon Wells’ absurd contract.  I believe that comes to around $90 million.  Shouldn’t this make Halladay more obtainable for the Yankees?  You can’t ask (well, you CAN) a team to cough up their top prospects PLUS having to eat a $90 million worth of deadwood.

So my question, if the player price (that is in Yankee prospects) comes down to earth - something like one of Hughes or Joba plus one of Montero / Ajax, a servicable MLB ready reliever and two other lesser prospects.  Do you take it knowing you’ll have to eat the $90 million?

Halladay + Wells = negative value.  The Jays would have to give up prospects to have someone take those two together.  Let alone request something back.

There is no way, absolutely no way at all a team would take that entire contract AND give up any sort of reasonably warm body.

If we gotta take Wells then they can have Gardner or Melky plus IPK and McCallister no more, maybe, MAYBE Joba instead of IPK but no more; no Montero, no Ajax.  Halliday is 32 and has been injured this year and we have to establish as we did with Santana that teams can’t try to extort more from us then they do from our rivals.

So my question, if the player price (that is in Yankee prospects) comes down to earth

Not sure if that comes down to earth, quite.  More like low-earth orbit.  To eat 90 million, I’d give up the reliever, maybe Brackman, and…someone else down there highly rated.  Maybe McAllister or Nova.  Or maybe just Joba and a reliever. 

There are probably only 3 or 4 teams that have the resources to take on $90M (or a significant portion of).  Yanks, Mets, Red Sox.  Maybe Dodgers and or Angels (okay, 5 teams.  Stupid Alzheimers).  Sox have pieces to top what I gave above for Yankees, I don’t know enough about the other teams (though I don’t think the Mets do).  So if the Sox are out of it, I think the Yankees are in play for something that doesn’t involve Hughes/Montero/AJax, and maybe even no Joba if the Jays REALLY want out from under Wells’s contract.

[35], [36] and [37]

Thanks for the replies, guys.

I’m still on the fence with this one.  I’d be agreeable to giving up one of Hughes/Joba plus a lesser prospect or two and MAYBE an MLB ready or MLB reliever (not named Mo, obviously) in exchange for Halladay + albatross contract guy.  I like the young guys on the team, but I can’t help but picture a parade this year with Halladay in pinstripes.

I just don’t see a scenario where the Jays are able to unload a significant portion of Wells’ albatross of a contract AND get actual prospects/young MLBers back.  It’s an either/or situation. 

What’s just 1.5 years of Halladay really worth?

IIRC, $40 M, according to FanGraphs.

Yep.

We would probably DFA Wells for roster flexibility.

What’s just 1.5 years of Halladay really worth?

Dave Cameron’s answer: A hell of a lot.

He writes:

To acquire the Jays ace, teams should be expected to surrender something like $40 million in value.

What does $40 million in value look like? Something like three terrific prospects who are not that far from the majors.

18 seconds behind the poetenthusiast.

Yeah.  So that means that it’s three terrific prospects OR getting rid of some of that heinous contract

If you add Wells to Halladay, as DaPuj said, all value vanishes. That is one of the worst contracts in the MLB.

The other one, the Red Sox are apparently ready to dump: Julio Lugo.

#97     Wang, Chien-Ming
#98   Carmona, Fausto C  

Springfield has moved up to #299 on the list of America’s most livable 300 cities.  Take that, East St. Louis!

Sox have pieces to top what I gave above for Yankees,

CW says no way do Sox get in on Halladay. We’ll see, but that’s my suspicion too.

When is Pujols a FA?  Can anyone afford to pay him what he’s worth?  Take on the risk that he gets hurt?

I was just thinking about the Griffey/A-Rod/Unit Mariners team.  Some players can be too valuable.

I couldn’t help but notice that Joba is at 89 IP.  If his cap is 150 innings this year, he has 61 innings remaining at 6 IP per start (a stretch, I know) that’s 10 starts.  I smell a return to the bullpen.

Paging Mr. Hughes…

I was surprized to see CC ranked over Beckett but, unfortunately, isn’t Beckett trending upwards, as is Lester and Burnett, whereas CC doesn’t seem to have any discernible trend line.

Trends are not really predictive.

In Beckett/CC, I am assuming they’re functionally even, with CC marginally ahead because kicking ass for an extra six innings counts for something

Park factors give C.C. a little nudge too, but a difference of 0.5 runs is essentially meaningless given the margin of error here.

OTOH, I can’t respect any stat that favors Burnett over Lester. Does it ignore K/BB rates completely???

Purely looking at values here.  Replacement level runs allowed per nine adjusted for pitcher’s park minus pitcher’s runs allowed per nine.  Divide by nine.  Multiply by IP.  This formula does not care if a pitcher’s peripherals are not in line with their actual performance, and does not care if a pitcher has been inordinately hurt/helped by their defense.  It doesn’t care if a pitcher’s bullpen has stranded a ton of runners for them or allowed a bunch of inherited runs to score.  It is not saying that any pitcher here is better or worse than any other in terms of ability.  It’s strictly showing how much value each pitcher’s innings and runs prevented/allowed have provided to their teams.

So to answer your question, yes, it ignores K/BB rates completely.

When is Pujols a FA?

2011 if St. Louis exercises his option.

There is another off day today???

This is for real?!? Terrific.

off days suck

I’m reduced to following the Mets.

Say it aint so!

Washburn seems to be doing very well at 34.  He could never live up to his contract, but he seems to have found his early aught effectiveness.  Babip is down a lot this year and his K rate is up slightly.  He could be due for a correction in the second half.

So I went to see Bruno last night. 20 minutes of chuckles. Took 90 minutes to watch. Thats not good.
The most disturbing thing (to me) was three couples thought it was OK to bring children to this kind of gay porn film. Bad bad parents. I’m no prude but you cannot let an 8 yo. watch a film like that.
I love Doc but no no no. Please no.

The most disturbing thing (to me) was three couples thought it was OK to bring children to this kind of gay porn film. Bad bad parents. I’m no prude but you cannot let an 8 yo. watch a film like that.

When I saw Pan’s Labyrinth there were small children in the theater. The same with The Watchmen. Some people just read the synopsis and don’t pay attention to anything else. There’s no way an 8 y.o. should watch Pan’s Labyrinth.

Washburn seems to be doing very well at 34.  He could never live up to his contract, but he seems to have found his early aught effectiveness.  Babip is down a lot this year and his K rate is up slightly.  He could be due for a correction in the second half.

the Mariners have a very good outfield defense, but even given that, Washburn is pitching better than expected.

Say it aint so!

I came to my senses, popped some popcorn, cracked a cheap beer, and watched a few more lectures on classical archaeology from the Teaching Company with my lovely wife.  I’m pleased with my decision.  Baseball starts again tomorrow.

Thurm, I was excited for Bruno until I started reading about it…hearing your reaction has confirmed for me that it’s a rental at best.

Dave- Wait for it on the pay channels. You will laugh. Just not enough.