Monday, July 7, 2008
AL SS sorted by Total Offensive and Defensive Runs Above Average - July 7, 2008
I'm having fun with these so I'll run through the rest of the positions over the next couple of days.| Player | pBRAA | RSAA | Total |
| Young, Michael* | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| Cabrera, Orlando | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Jeter, Derek* | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| Aybar, Erick | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Punto, Nick | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Scutaro, Marco | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Izturis, Maicer | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Aviles, Mike | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Zobrist, Ben | 4 | -2 | 2 |
| Eckstein, David | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| Lugo, Julio | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Hollimon, Michael | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Callaspo, Alberto | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Fahey, Brandon | -1 | 3 | 1 |
| Petit, Gregorio | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| Crosby, Bobby | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| Cannizaro, Andy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Velandia, Jorge | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Brignac, Reid | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Tolbert, Matt | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Bartlett, Jason | -5 | 3 | -1 |
| Cintron, Alex | 0 | -1 | -2 |
| Everett, Adam | -3 | 1 | -2 |
| Betancourt, Yuniesky | -3 | 1 | -2 |
| Johnson, Elliot | -3 | 0 | -3 |
| Torres, Eider | -1 | -2 | -3 |
| Cora, Alex | 1 | -4 | -4 |
| McDonald, John | -4 | 0 | -4 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | -5 | 1 | -4 |
| Bynum, Freddie | -9 | 3 | -6 |
| Hernandez, Luis | -3 | -4 | -7 |
| Renteria, Edgar | -6 | -3 | -9 |
| Pena Jr., Tony | -17 | 2 | -15 |
pBRAA: Position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights
RSAA: Defensive runs saved above average
*All Star selection
No, your eyes do not deceive you. Derek Jeter has a zone rating of .840 right now, and the AL average at SS is .829. That means Jeter has saved 2 runs above average defensively. Sample size caveats apply as always, but I thought last night that Jeter got to several balls that he hadn't gotten to in the recent past. Visually, he looks like he is playing a better short and the numbers here back that up. Now if only he could hit like he usually does...
Comments
Interesting stuff:
1) With how badly he’s been hitting, he’s still the 2nd best offensive SS in the AL.
2) Being the third best SS in the AL - and only a 3 run difference with the best - and suddenly him starting for the squad doesn’t look that bad.
Just curious SG, do you have Jose Reyes #‘s handy?
Reyes is +17 pBRAA, and -5 RSAA. Total of +12.
AL shortstops SUCK this year. They’re cumulatively hitting .259/.309/.364.
That play he made on Pedroia, where he ranged up the middle, double clutched and still got him by half a step probably does not get made usually.
These numbers ought to cease the Jeter hatred on the board for a bit. He’s on pace to be a little less than 2 wins better than the average SS right now (what, like 16 runs?) and he still hasn’t gone on an offensive hot streak. I suppose you can’t expect Jeter’s way below normal offense to return to norms without expecting his way above normal defense to return to his established norms, but I think he has the potential to improve his current rate #s.
Also, if this continues, it calls into question how much defense can be improved by working out to strengthen the legs (as Jeter did this offseason) and by positioning (which probably changed with the new coaching staff). The questions should probably wait till the sample size is a lot larger, it could still just be a hot streak but I’ll be stewing on them.
SG, is the pBRAA just for AL SS?
This is off topic, but has anyone realized Mariano’s WHIP is 0.645!
As for Jeter, perhaps he’s being positioned better and that’s why he’s getting to balls hit up the middle. Giambi has also generally done a nice job of scooping his errant throws.
That play he made on Pedroia, where he ranged up the middle, double clutched and still got him by half a step probably does not get made usually.
yup. also, the play he made the error on. he ranged far to get that, he just made an awful throw.
it seems to me that he is simply positioning himself closer to 2B. that and the fact that he was hurt last year.
but could the major issue all this time have been positioning? if so, that’s a little frustrating since it sounds like the team has spoken to him about it in the past but he was never receptive before this year.
SG, is the pBRAA just for AL SS?
Yeah, I separate the leagues on both offense and defense because there is some difference in talent there, and pitchers’ hitting and bunting seems to make the NL infield defense numbers better than the AL’s.
Doesn’t the coaching staff position players defensively?
Man, Jeter suc…........ wait, what?
This is off topic, but has anyone realized Mariano’s WHIP is 0.645!
.. or that he’s 6.2 innings away from all time ERA+ leader?
Jeter is a good player. I still think he’s overrated.
Sorry…
SG, is the pBRAA just for AL SS?
Gotta wonder where he’d be if he hadn’t GIDP’d, what, like 500 times so far this year?
This is off topic, but has anyone realized Mariano’s WHIP is 0.645!
I just did a quick check on the Lahman database. Since 1945 there have been only two seasons of 50 more innings with a WHIP lower than that. Dennis Eckersly in 1989 and 1990.
Those numbers aren’t surprising. Its Jeter’s arm that has betrayed him. Most of his errors have been of the throwing kind, I believe. It does look like his range has improved a bit.
.. or that he’s 6.2 innings away from all time ERA+ leader?
Everyone should be following the Mo 1000 countdown under the bullpen counter. Unlike the bullpen counter it actually gets updated regularly.
Gotta wonder where he’d be if he hadn’t GIDP’d, what, like 500 times so far this year?
587. I keep a running tally.
Jeter is a good player. I still think he’s overrated.
You should go work for ESPN.
Actually, I think most of us feel that way. He’s a good player, not a great player. It’s not his fault the media makes him out to be better than he is.
It’s the leadership, people! Come on. And if he were making less money, he’d be scrappy too.
Derek Jeter, Yankees SS till he’s 40!
He’s a good player, not a great player.
Ah, nice, subjective terms! Personally, I think Jeter has been a great player over his career. NOT as great as the myth that is Jeter (which probably still makes him overrated). But there have been two years he was probably the best player in the AL, and several other years he was one of the top 5, and the rest of the time probably one of the top 30. Doing that over that amount of time is very impressive.
Seems this conversation has occurred before, but I rate Jeter as great. ARod, historically great. Probably the same scale others use, I just use different terms.
Speaking of which, one spot should be reserved on the All-Star team for the scrappiest player in each league. Obviously, Lil’ Dustin is the scrappy rep from the AL, but who is doing the honors for the senior circuit?
Jeter is a good player. I still think he’s overrated.
A few years ago, in the SF Bay Area, I dated a wonderful young lady who was barely a baseball fan but enjoyed stayed vaguely aware of what was going on during the current season. Once, I figure during 2000, maybe 2001, she overheard a friend and I discussing how Barry Bonds did not enough credit for being the best player in the game over the previous years. She said, in genuine shock, “What? Barry Bonds is the best player in baseball?” We nodded and I asked, “Why, who did you think is better?” “I don’t know,” she shrugged. “Maybe Derek Jeter.”
Derek Jeter, Yankees SS till he’s 40!
Assuming the .840 isn’t a fluke, and from here he ages like a typical defender, that may actually not be that bad. Only time will tell.
Point is, he has been great; the dude is genuinely HOF-worthy, or likely will be. But yeah, like SG says above, it’s too bad that the legend, and the backlash, both overvalue and obscure his actual achievement.
IE, can we put little Dustin and little David Eckstein in a cage match to see who gets the berth?
That’s hilarious, Frog. Perhaps you can give her number to PagsRags.
She said, in genuine shock, “What? Barry Bonds is the best player in baseball?” We nodded and I asked, “Why, who did you think is better?” “I don’t know,” she shrugged. “Maybe Derek Jeter.”
I always thought it was Darin Erstad.
Ah, nice, subjective terms! Personally, I think Jeter has been a great player over his career.
Oh, I’m just talking about Jeter right now. I would agree he was great during his peak, even if you factor in his subpar defense. He was 53 total runs above average in 1999, 40 total runs above average in 1998. Those are monster, MVP-caliber seasons.
There’s a new scrappy guy in town and his name is Brett Gardner.
Is Christian scrappy, too? Are the Yankees allowed to have two scrappy guys on their team? When was the last time? Knoblauch and Chad Curtis?
Assuming the .840 isn’t a fluke, and from here he ages like a typical defender, that may actually not be that bad. Only time will tell.
We probably have to assume that he will regress towards his true mean. All empirical evidence shows that he is not as good defensively as he has shown to be so far this year. I think I had him projected at .810 coming into the year, which is around a -10. If he maintains his current .840, next year’s projection would be something like .820. That’s around a -4.
Oh, I’m just talking about Jeter right now.
Yeah, I can see that, though it’s a bit early to write this season off. Last year’s offense with this year’s defense (which obviously didn’t happen) and he probably would have still be great - or at least very, very good - last year. We’ll see…and either way he’ll probably still be over or under-rated by most everyone.
We probably have to assume that he will regress towards his true mean.
Can’t argue it. I know it is extremely unusual (but I don’t think unprecedented?) for a defender to imrpove to a new talent-level this late in his career, but it’s possible. Especially if positioning has much effect, and if Jeter is now positioned better (and continues to do so). Obviously too soon to be projecting who will play SS in 2014, and I’m sure Cashman will be looking to get some talent in the minors at that position, for depth if nothing else. Jeter is obviously the SS next year, so we’ll just need to see if he’s shifted to being a slightly-above-average defender, or if he regresses back to below-average or even bad.
“Ah, nice, subjective terms! Personally, I think Jeter has been a great player over his career. NOT as great as the myth that is Jeter (which probably still makes him overrated). But there have been two years he was probably the best player in the AL, and several other years he was one of the top 5, and the rest of the time probably one of the top 30. Doing that over that amount of time is very impressive”
I quite agree, Mike
That said even if his defense range has improved, I’m still concerned with him offensively returning to at least last year’s form in the second half. I also agree that Cabrera messed him up pretty badly. The year before it was R. Lopez as I recall at Baltimore. BTW, I’m a little worried that Boston will start plucking our guys next time around. I like the Yankee pitchers pitching in close but perhaps a little too much contact. I have to give Francona some credit for restraint to this point. I don’t like the Sox even a little bit but you have to give Tito some credit. He’s got some wierd guys to deal with, particularly Manny. Wonder what will happen to him next year?
Christian is most certainly scrappy. Dude played in the independent leagues, where everyone is scrappy.
The Red Sox fan I work with had a chart from BTF that indicates in 07 Jeter defensive runs saved at SS was the worst in baseball. Has he improved that much or is it just a matter of you can make anything true by choosing which statistic to honor, lies, damn lies and statistics in other words
Has he improved that much
Yes, he has. His ZR was .765 last year, and I think SG had him at -20 runs for the year.
Has he improved that much or is it just a matter of you can make anything true by choosing which statistic to honor, lies, damn lies and statistics in other words
I’m pretty sure I wrote about a dozen articles last season about how bad Jeter was defensively. There’s no picking and choosing here. His zone rating last year was .765, and this year it’s .840. That means that this year he’s converted 84% of the fieldable balls hit into the SS area of responsibility into outs, compared to 76.5% last year.
Is it strictly that he’s playing better? Probably not. It could be positioning, it could be that he faced more difficult chances last year compared to this year, it could be that he was playing hurt last year and is relatively healthy now.
I’d say his 2007 was flukishly low and I’d probably say his .840 this year is flukishly high, and the truth will rest somewhere in the middle, hopefully closer to the .840.
RZR has him first (Yes, Jeter is first out of all qualifiers in a defensive metric) in the Majors at getting balls in zone.
“These numbers ought to cease the Jeter hatred on the board for a bit. “
Oy. People don’t hate Jeter. They’re just frustrated b/c he’s not hitting like he usually does. His defense has been better than usual, and that’s nice. But give me the normal Derek who lets a few grounders up the middle go through, but hits .320/.380/.450 or thereabouts.
And I suspect that in the second half, you will see that Derek Jeter, not this one. His defense will regress and his offense will come back.
“AL shortstops SUCK this year. They’re cumulatively hitting .259/.309/.364.”
Varitekian.
In 06 his ZR was 810 and he was ranked 7th, in 05 it was 830 and he ranked 5th so if you threw out the worst and best of the 4 years his average would be 820 which I gather would be fair to slightly negative. Naturally Sox fans embrace his 07 stats as the true ones.
Of course in any case Arod should be playing SS with Jeter at 3b or in the outfield
Who cares what Red Sox fans embrace?
When they’re at the next desk it can be an issue
Hey, Tampa finally lost a game!
Of course in any case Arod should be playing SS with Jeter at 3b or in the outfield
That ship has sailed, and it’s entirely possible that right now Jeter is as good as ARod at SS. I *do* believe ARod would be better had he stayed there, but…
Who knows how much the wear-and-tear of playing SS, rather than 3rd, would have dropped A-Freud’s offense. But it likely would have had an impact.
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