“I made the point over there that of course we’d expect them to do worse against good starters, because they’re good starters.”

Oh good.  I had reached the site via a link from Bronx Banter, seen that he hadn’t realized that point, and once again decided not to waste my time there.

The above of course in part a commentary on the quality of work here.

He’s the guy with the irrational hatred of ARod right? Yeeeaahhh… nvm.

SG,

I tried to make a point in Lombardi’s website, but I did not flesh out correctly.

Lombardi’s assumption is that the Yankees will do badly against good pitchers the rest of the year because they have done badly against them up to now.

Besides the very small sample size (and the fact that as you point out, Lombardi’s statement is a bit of a tautology), my complaint is that the Yanks have had certain hitters who have been very hot or very cold this year REGARDLESS of whether they are hitting against good, regular or mediocre pitchers.

That being the case, I am not fully convinced that using John Lackey(for example), who won against the Yanks twice (on May 27th, after pitching 8 innings and allowing 2 runs and on July 7th, after pitching another 8 innings and allowing 1 run) is the best frame of reference, because the Yankees were not exactly hitting at all for the first of those two games.

Let’s look at the May 27th game.

The Yankees had lost the previous two games to the Angels, one 10-6 (with the starting pitcher being J. Weaver) and another one against Kelvim Escobar, who is also on the list, 3-1.

Then they lost the 2 games after losing to Lackey (to Toronto), 7-2 and 3-2 (incidentally, in games Roy Halladay did not pitch).

So yes, the Yankees were not hitting at the time at all.

Conversely, in the second of the two Lackey games (the 2-1 loss), the Yankees had been hitting well, since they’d won the previous two games (one against Minny 7-6 and one against the Angels 14-9) and the subsequent game before the all star break 12-0 against Anaheim.

So IMO, Lackey’s performance against the Yankees on May 27th was not particularly out of line with how the Yankees were hitting at the time (they weren’t), but he did throw a dandy game on July 7th.

That leads me to believe that Lackey is a pitcher the Yankees have trouble with this year, be it that they are on a hot streak or not.

A problem I have with Lombardi is that while he uses good statistical analysis in answering his questions, the questions that he asks sometimes come with flawed assumptions.

He recently pointed out (after the Yanks lost 13-9 against the ChiSox), that the Yanks had a 337-20 record when they scored 9 runs, so the loss against the ChiSox was an aberration.

I mentioned to him that this is just a matter of how you frame the question, because I’m pretty darn sure that the Yanks have a pretty sucky record in games where they are losing by 8 runs (as they were after the end of the top half of that crazy second inning).

In any case, that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.

I’d be curious applying park-factors to that as well, though I have the feeling you would need to do it for each game played and it would no longer be a quick-study.  Obviously some of the noise that can get in the stats with this is if they happen to play those top-of-the-line starters in environments that suppress offense, they could lose ground against the rest of the field.  The gap would still be much larger than the field, but I’m mostly curious if the .24 RC less the Yankees have against good starters would go away.

The flip-side of this argument is if poor-pitchers also have a larger variation in runs-allowed between poor hitting teams vs. good hitting teams.  In other words, good pitchers pitch well against everyone, while poor pitchers pitch poorly against bad teams, but awful against good teams.

JRJV, I saw your post over at WW and I think I understand your point.  Basically, when someone like Cano’s going poorly, he couldn’t hit Kei Igawa, and when he’s going well he could hit Mo.  Well, not Mo, but a lesser pitcher like Jon Papelbon or something.

The problem is separating it out.  Did the Yankees hit poorly because they were hitting poorly, or were they hitting poorly because they were playing against good pitchers.

Their performance against Matsuzaka’s a good example.  They faced him twice, on April 22 and April 27 and put up 10 runs in 13 innings against him.  Here’s how they were hitting as a team over the stretch from April 18 through May 1:  .271/.352/.432.  Compare that to their overall season line of .291/.366/.465.  So they weren’t really hitting well over that time period, but still did pretty well against a pretty good pitcher.

There’s a lot of noise in this type of data, but I’ve always felt that a team like the Yankees of recent vintage that thrive on working the count and driving pitchers out of games will tend to do worse than expected against better pitchers because better pitchers throw quality strikes and force them into a situation where they have to hit more defensively.  These cursory numbers indicate there may be something to that idea, but it’s far from definitive and I wouldn’t claim it to be that way.

It’s an interesting thing to ponder anyway.  I actually like the fact that Cano isn’t a ‘typical’ work the count player although he’s walking more this year, I think a few players like that can help with matchups against strike-throwing pitchers, provide they hit well enough to have a respectable OBP, which Cano certainly does, especially for a 2B.

I understand all the quirks with comparing things like this but the results match up perfectly with what I have seen from the Yanks. It also makes perfect sense based off the kind of hitters the Yankees are mainly made of. The Yanks do well by not swinging at borderline pitches and hitting the pitches hard that are mistakes. This method allows them to run up pitch counts and have big innings.

But the flipside is when facing a pitcher, like an Erik Bedard, who can pound the strikezone with plus offerings the Yankees method fails. Other then Cano and to a lesser extent Jeter we dont have guys who are gonna go up there and swing at the first hittable pitch. So the batters get behind in the count early.

Every time we face a quality pitcher the game goes pretty much the same way, the first time through a lot of guys take pitches and strike out because they got behind, realizing this the second and third time through they go up there swinging early and get a lot of weak hit balls. As long as this team is built around high OBP mistake type hitters we will see this trend, I think it is also why we have been having trouble in the playoffs.

If you look at the splits for the Yanks best hitters they all tend to crush finesse pitchers and hit weakly against power pitchers:

A-Rod- .890 OPS vs power 1.018 vs finesse
Giambi- .876 vs Power     .990 vs finesse
Abreu- .862 vs Power     .919 vs Finesse
Damon- .725 vs power     .811 vs finesse
Posada- .810 vs power     .915 vs finesse
Cano-  .731 vs power     .980 vs finesse
Jeter-  .784 vs power     .880 vs finesse

You would expect some dropoff as power pitchers are generally better pitchers but some of these hitters are losing 200 or so points in OPS.

how can you make this post without citing the overall ERA for these pitchers against the rest of the league?  makes no sense.  it’s the most obvious and important piece of information that is needed.  these pitchers have a 3.89 ERA against the Yankees.  what if it is 2.50 vs. everyone else?  kindof important.

If you look at the splits for the Yanks best hitters they all tend to crush finesse pitchers and hit weakly against power pitchers:

how did you make these classifications?

and isn’t there a huge bias since almost all of the “good” pitchers would fall into the “power” category? 

and how does it compare to the rest of the league against the power/finesse split?

te wana wanga!

how can you make this post without citing the overall ERA for these pitchers against the rest of the league?

RC/27 is close enough to ERA for me but without the impacts of bullpens.

RC/27 is close enough to ERA for me but without the impacts of bullpens.

i’m sorry, i wasn’t directing that to YOUR post.

i meant Lombardi’s post. your analysis, as always, is sound.

Manchy kabook noonee Schilling..makingsa lee ka bok bagthra…beeska chata wnow kong bantha poodoo!!!

Neh Joba no botha. Iz dye woto. Say gotto doh mooty

interesting stuff. I think the nail got hit on the head about the patient nature of the hitters.

Are there similar numbers readily available for the yankees vs avg relievers and ++relievers?? I feel like their could be opposite results with the yankees faring BETTER against good relievers than the rest of the league.

In my opinion, the sample sizes (i.e. 1-2 starts vs. each pitcher) are just too small.  After all, the Yanks last year were able to hit all of Detroit’s starters (with the exception of one very good outing by Robertson where he was outdueled by Wang and Rogers, who they never faced) but in the post season, the only one they got to was Robertson in Game 1.  Now, was post-season pressure a factor?  Maybe.  Was the team perhaps not in the same “zone” as before?  Perhaps.  But the tiny sample sizes can’t be ignored.

Now, was post-season pressure a factor?  Maybe.  Was the team perhaps not in the same “zone” as before?  Perhaps.  But the tiny sample sizes can’t be ignored.

exactly, and if i recall, wasn’t Rogers somewhat lucky (and RJ unlucky) in his start?  at least early on?

i remember abreu lining one in the first that looked like a sure RBI double, but granderson ran it down and Bernie missing a 3 run HR by about 6 inches….

of course, i was also really drunk that night.

if you think dipping your hand in pine tar is lucky then he was damn lucky

You guys see Ankiel last night? Totally awesome.

it seems that the yankees abandon their strategy of taking pitches when they face good pitchers.  It’s as though they fear they won’t see a good pitch later in the count, so they have to swing at the first decent pitch they see.  It drives me crazy when they have one of those games where a good pitcher has only thrown 70 pitches through 6 innings.

They may not be as good as they’ve looked while feasting on Tampa and KC.

“May”? I don’t think any team could possibly be as good as they’ve looked the past few weeks for any sustained length….

I don’t think any team could possibly be as good as they’ve looked the past few weeks for any sustained length

The 98 team came close…not so much with the offense playing at that level, but dominating the competition so completely.  I see no reason why the Yankees can’t play 6 games over .500 in the next twenty, though.

it seems that the yankees abandon their strategy of taking pitches when they face good pitchers.  It’s as though they fear they won’t see a good pitch later in the count, so they have to swing at the first decent pitch they see.  It drives me crazy when they have one of those games where a good pitcher has only thrown 70 pitches through 6 innings.

but if it is a good pitcher, you can take all the pitches you want and you will just strike out looking on 3-4 pitches.

you can’t “force” a pitcher to throw balls.

good pitchers throw more strikes than bad pitchers.

i don’t think the yankees change their approach.  the pitcher is just pitching better.

I had a question why do we not use Chris Britton? His AAA and brief major league stats are good. can someone please tell me why?

Isn’t Britton hurt, on Int’l League DL?

Fernando Cabrera—good stuff, very high ceiling, big 2007 struggles—was released by Cleve.  Why not take a flier?  Out of options so can’t be sent down for fine-tuning.  But I’d would rather have him in the 8th inning of a 6-run game than Brower or Farny.

Going back to the conversation a few days ago about Abreu’s option…no question Eric Byrnes’ $10m per has set the market in a messed-up way.  I’ve been arguing, even when he’s been hot, that Abreu should be turned loose.  But $16m is starting to look like a modest salary so maybe not.  I wonder if they couldn’t do a sign-and-trade a la Sheff.  Don’t even take Torii Hunter’s call—he’s having a career year and will want something preposterous like 5/$60-$70. 

2 OF names that popped to mind—young, underperforming but huge upside and no real place on their current roster: Rocco Baldelli and Carlos Quentin.  Wonder if it mightn’t be worth dipping into the prospect pitching depth (at the sub-Kennedy level) to get one of them in the off-season. 

Thoughts anyone?

well, he just came of the DL in the minors.  other than that, there is no good reason.  i’d imagine he will be up in the next few weeks.

Quentin yes, Baldelli no.  durability is a skill, and it is one that Baldelli unfortunately lacks.  if TB were selling low, sure.  but i don’t see why they’d bother.  might as well hold onto him until he re-establishes some value.

i think they will pick up abreu’s option at this point and just go with the one year deal and hope someone like Austin Jackson is ready by 2009.

What Andrew Jones instead of Bobby? It will probably cost us 2 million more a year but a longer deal or we could just pick up the option and wait for Tabata or Jackson to be ready.

After next year we have huge payroll coming off the books
Pavano
Giambi
Mussina
Abreu
Jeter

i would rather put Tabata there and see what he can do and overpay for a frontline starter and offer Santana or others 4-5 million more per year with the money we save by using homegrown talent on offense

Well, it’s gonna be hard to re-establish his value without a place for him in the lineup.  Who’s going to sit out of Crawford/Upton/Gomes/Delmon Young?

Maybe one of the others (not Upton though) will be on the market—there was buzz, wasn’t there, about them possibly looking to move Crawford for a big package.  He has affordable team option for ‘09 and ‘10.  The Yanks wouldn’t/shouldn’t get involved there—they’ll want Hughes, Joba, a 1999 WS ring, and a partridge in a pear tree.

I wonder if they couldn’t do a sign-and-trade a la Sheff.

Abreu has a no-trade.  Sheffield did not.

Jeter won’t be coming off the books.  He’ll be getting a raise.

well, he just came of the DL in the minors.  other than that, there is no good reason.  i’d imagine he will be up in the next few weeks.

Well, and Torre seems adverse to using him.  I think I mentioned yesterday too that he just doesn’t throw that hard; tops out at about 90.  I think he’ll get another shot - certainly after the AAA playoffs are over - but there may be some scouts for the minors that don’t like him.

After next year we have huge payroll coming off the books
Pavano
Giambi
Mussina
Abreu
Jeter

I thought Jeter was signed for 10 years?  So that he has 3 years left?

Am I reading this correctly that Seattle is 6.6% to win the wild card?  How can that be when they are 2 games in the loss column ahead of us?  On an unrelated note the Times is saying that Edwar may be recalled as soon as today.

Andruw Jones crossed my mind, but the down year he’s having is troubling.  I’ve even heard that his glove isn’t what it was (which still makes it better than most, of course, and about 10 miles better than Damon’s).

I just don’t think we want to hitch ourselves for 4-5 years to a guy who’s on the wrong side of 30 and with a lot of mileage on him.  Better to re-up with Abreu and reassess going in to ‘09.  If the free agent pool it must be though, I actually think dollar-for-dollar I’d rather have Rowand.

What are folks’ best guess about what the final numbers will be if/when we bring back Mo and Posada?  I think Jorge is going to play hardball given the seasno he’s having—could the market bear a 4 or 5-year deal for him?  (I think this came up in a previous thread.  Would 3 yrs/$50m get it done for Mariano?

Well, it’s gonna be hard to re-establish his value without a place for him in the lineup.  Who’s going to sit out of Crawford/Upton/Gomes/Delmon Young?

Upton is their 2Bman.  i think he is only playing CF b/c Dukes came down with a case of the crazies.

Gomes or Baldelli could DH.

i agree there was a logjam in the OF, but that was with Dukes in there.  and he seems to be out of their plans now.

Britton tops out at 90?  Then something’s wrong with him physically.  He was flirting with triple digits when playing for the Orioles last season.

Am I reading this correctly that Seattle is 6.6% to win the wild card?  How can that be when they are 2 games in the loss column ahead of us? 

SG can correct, but i assume it is b/c the predictions rely heavily on run differential.

also, let’s not forget that right now, the gap between Seattle and the Yankees is that “safe” stolen base call from earlier in the season when the Seattle guy was out by literally 3 feet.  that sucks.

Not positive yup, but pretty sure they’ve never been satisfied with Upton’s infield glove and think they’ve found a home for him and his athleticism in CF.  Iwamura, I think, is ticketed for 2B when Longoria is ready.  Which should be Opening Day. 

Damn, that’s a lot of good young position players.  If I were them, I would look to trade Crawford for someone else’s Phil Hughes equivalent.  Maybe a package headlined by Blanton or Haren in Oak?  Someone to give them a decent 1-3 with Kazmir and Shields.  Could be a .500 team next year and even a contender after that.

Personally I think re-upping Abreu is a no-brainer.  Since we have to buy him out for $2MM anyway, his net cost would be $14MM, not $16MM.  The key advantage is that we only need to commit to 1 year.  Even if he turns into a pumpkin or he’s outperformed by everyone else on the team, then you can either make a move at midseason or move on in 2009.  The last thing we want to do is get someone like JD Drew, whose performance has been putrid and who the Red Sox have committed to paying for another FOUR years.

The only free agent that could be signed at a reasonable price is Rowand, but so many teams will probably covet him as a good plan B that his cost will become unreasonable as well.  Also, Roward only hits enough to be a CF, I think we’re all better off if Melky plays there as much as possible.

If there are obvious issues with the sample size, why not pick the next 10 best starters and check out the differential there. Or given that the Yankee team is similar to last year’s team (same kind of approach), why not look at last year’s performance differential.

i’m pretty sure that Byrnes just set the market for Rowand, so i think someone will pay him more than he is worth.

#36:That blown call on the stolen base sucked but what also sucked and I can’t forget was the 15-11 loss we took in a game that we gave Igawa a big lead which he and the BP proceeded to blow.

Is the relative strength of schedules of the various teams involved available anywhere?

man posado hasnt even earned his current contract. he realistically should get 2yrs/24mill but he’ll end with 2yrs/30mill.

mariano i think will end up with 3yrs/45mill.

2009 dream acquisitions:

Johan Santana
Ben Sheets

Santana, Wang, Sheets, Hughes, Chamberlein/Kennedy/Betances

does anyone know any other major players in the 2009 market

Britton tops out at 90?  Then something’s wrong with him physically.  He was flirting with triple digits when playing for the Orioles last season

That was what the gun said the other night anyway.  When I saw him pitch in May, I couldn’t see the gun reading on the scoreboard from where I sat.  But if he really is 6+ MPH off what he should be because he is recovering, then I think it is a good reason to keep him in the minors, no?

Is the relative strength of schedules of the various teams involved available anywhere?

I think if you check out the ESPN standings and click the RPI link, you can get what you are looking for, or close.

man posado hasnt even earned his current contract

Hmm, best all around catcher in the AL for the last 5 years, caught more games than anyone except for Kendell, most irreplaceable Yankee (other than maybe Mo)...if you say so.

Actually, isn’t Carlos Zambrano a free agent in THIS year’s market?  Not sure if he ended up signing a deal with the Cubbies or not…

man posado hasnt even earned his current contract.

how do you figure that?

But if he really is 6+ MPH off what he should be because he is recovering, then I think it is a good reason to keep him in the minors, no?

i don’t think Britton was ever a 100 MPH type guy.  i thought even last year he was a low 90’s guy.  he just seems like a hard thrower b/c he is, how do i put this, horizontally challenged…

Precisely my point on Posada, Mike K.  I think I remember reading a quote from him recently that he’s looking forward to testing the FA waters for the first time in his career.  I think we’ll get it done eventually, but I can’t see him settling for only 2 years.

Posada hasn’t earned his current contract? The best catcher in baseball over that span isn’t worth $13 million per?

Maybe not 100mph, but I watch a lot of O’s games down and let me tell you he was consistently mid-90s at least during parts of last season.

I’d pass on Zambrano.  Hothead.  And for a great pitcher, kind of inconsistent.  Wait for Johan.

Really you would rather have posado than anyone of these guys:

Jeter
A-Rod
Matsui
Wang
even cano

and besides this year Michael Barrett wouldnt put up similiar numbers to Posado if he was in the yanks lineup.

His AVG over the years…AMAZING is why he so irreplaceable

.277
.268
.281
.272
.262
.277

we dont need Posado, it makes us put Cano and Melky lower in the lineup.

Did you forget about Ivan Rodriguez? hes better than Posado. Just cause Posado plays for the yanks doesnt mean he needs to have an aura around him. he has been with us forever but that does not make him irreplaceable.

I think we’ll get it done eventually, but I can’t see him settling for only 2 years.

I think 2 years with a 3rd year option that he can turn into a player option (based on # of games he catches) is doable, maybe for 45M$ total.

posada is going to hold us ransom. he will get whatever he wants and deserves it. Upton is definitely the center fielder in TB, delmon was filling in for him while he was out with the injury.

Maybe a package headlined by Blanton or Haren in Oak?

Blanton maybe, but Bean wouldn’t trade Haren for three Carl Crawfords.

Think the Cardinals would like a do-over on the Mulder trade?

His AVG over the years…AMAZING is why he so irreplaceable

OPS over the years:

.838
.838
.923
.881
.782
.866

IRod over the years:

.888
.895
.843
.893
.734
.769

Also remember these are unadjusted…

FCUKBOSTON, 
  Are you a troll? If not, I fear for you. That was the stupidest post I have ever seen. Nice job posting Posada’s batting averages, now why dont you go back and post his On Base Percentages…dont worry, I’ll do it for you:

.370
.405
.400
.352
.374

And this yaer, .422.

You do know he is a CATCHER, right? RIGHT?  His worst year, .352, is well above league average for a catcher.

“Did you forget about Ivan Rodriguez? hes better than Posado. Just cause Posado plays for the yanks doesnt mean he needs to have an aura around him. he has been with us forever but that does not make him irreplaceable. “

Pudge is great; but that he is better than Posada over the last 7 seasons is arguable at least. Pudge has never put up an OBP over .375. I would of course give Pudge the edge in defense. In pudge’s MVP year he hit .332 with a .358 OBP: that’s pathetic. he had more double plays than walks. Posada, by contrast, is hitting .335 this year with a .420 obp.

Also, his name is Posada.

Did you forget about Ivan Rodriguez? hes better than Posado

Umm, no he isn’t.  Rodriguez has been a below-average hitter for the past three years*, he plays less than Posada, and his defense isn’t what it used to be.  He’s the same age as Jorge, but is showing it a lot more, probably because he started catching at a much earlier age.  Besides, you think he’s going to be cheap?

Posada has been more irreplaceable than any of those other players because the drop-off from Posada to whoever would have replaced him is much bigger than the drop-off at any of those other positions would have been.

*still damned good production for a catcher, mind you.

Thank you Mike K I was about to post that.

Screw batting average it is a fairly useless stat. I posted this the other day somewhere else:

If you look back over the history of baseball and find all the players who played at least 1000 games at catcher, while hitting .270/.350/.450 or better and hitting 200 or more homers, you get a rather short list:

Mike Piazza
Roy Campanella
Bill Dickey
Gabby Hartnett
Jorge Posada

Posada over his contract is by far the best hitting catcher in the AL.

Even using MORP, he is valued at over $13 million this year

I know we are going to resign Posado but i dont think he deserves 15 million year.
Thank you for setting me straight on Posado lol and i hope since he didnt start out as catcher he still has a couple of more years in his knees for us.

He’s trolling.  Worse part is that the Yankees hardly have anyone capable of replacing Posada.  But like I said earlier, the thinking among the core posters here is fairly homogeneous, even if there is some nuance in the margins. 

Abreu is going to be interesting.  I think a one year flyer for someone playing for a new contract would be worth it, and considering what’s out there, he’s can’t be possibly be worse or riskier.  And Abreu has as more upside than a lot of the other FAs.  Plus draft pick, plus short contract gives the FO more time to assess their outfield prospects and preempting a costly FA signing.

But then again, if any team can take on the money or risk of signing a bad multi year deal that would be the Yankees.

Wait, if groupthink can bludgeon someone back into the group, then he’s not a troll.

I guess I shouldn’t react so strongly that someone isn’t aware of the value of a player like Posado (that does have a nice ring to it, at least).  It’s not like everyone has benefited from this (or similar) site.  There are lots of new fans or old fans still learning about the beautiful pastime. 

And by groupthink, it’s a compliment, you guys here are pretty sharp.

Did you forget about Ivan Rodriguez? hes better than Posado.

1. no he isn’t.
2. who is “Posado”?

Andruw Jones may be available fairly cheap as he’s having a terrible season. I’m thinking a one or two year deal and catch lightning in a bottle. But will Ca$hman (assuming he is still around) give up a first round pick?

The Yankees hardly have anyone capable of replacing Posada because there’s no one in baseball who can match him over the last few years.  Here’s what I’d like to know:  What’s the difference between P’s numbers and that of the average C since 2000?  What’s the difference between, say, Arod’s numbers and that of the average 3B in the same span?  I’ll bet these are more comparable figures than we’d guess.  The average 3b’s numbers will be brought up by the fine seasons by Chipper, Cabrera, Wright, etc.   

My point is to compare Posada to the greatness that is Arod and see that Posada looks pretty good in the end. 

Of course, I haven’t done this comparison, because I’m really, truly, lazy.

i’m probably for picking up abreu’s option, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to let him go.  Unless either damon or matsui learns how to play first base, there’s still going to be 5 guys for 4 positions (OF/DH).  This would be great depth, but if it stands in the way of paying for another SP or even a couple of RPs, abreu may be more of a luxury than a necessity.

theFrog - I saw an article earlier this season that showed Posada actually has a higher VORP than Jeter.  So that was pretty telling.

This would be great depth, but if it stands in the way of paying for another SP or even a couple of RPs, abreu may be more of a luxury than a necessity.

We are still talking about the Yankees, right?  I think the SP’ing is going to be alright, but the bullpen will probably still be a mess next year unless Britton, Bruney, Ramirez, others step up.  Of course, with Torre, we haven’t learned much from what we have aside from the fact that Farnsworth sucks.  Probably the biggest upgrade for the pen next year will be a new manager.

I worry about any deal the team will give Posada. Catchers do tend to deteriorate quickly, sometimes right in front of your eyes. It will be interesting to see what offers he gets from other teams, assuming he really does want to test FA, as he has said he does.

theFrog - I saw an article earlier this season that showed Posada actually has a higher VORP than Jeter.  So that was pretty telling.

Jeter has been pretty mediocre (by his own lofty standards) since the all-star break.

I worry about any deal the team will give Posada. Catchers do tend to deteriorate quickly, sometimes right in front of your eyes.

agreed.

i think this situation is similar to the Damon situation though.  there aren’t many attractive alternatives, so they will go into it knowing they may overpay in the last year or 2 (that was the idea with Damon anyway, the decline wasn’t supposed to happen so fast) of the deal to secure him for the next year or 2.

at least with posada, you could theoretically move him to 1B or DH and still have a decent bat.

RE: Abreu

“i’m probably for picking up abreu’s option, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world to let him go.  Unless either damon or matsui learns how to play first base, there’s still going to be 5 guys for 4 positions (OF/DH).  This would be great depth, but if it stands in the way of paying for another SP or even a couple of RPs, abreu may be more of a luxury than a necessity.”

We do have a lot of OFs, but I think Abreu’s ability to play RF is something the Yankees would have to replace from outside the organization.  While Abreu is not a great defender, I really don’t want Matusi and Damon (both a year older) in the outfield at the same time.  I think it’s becoming clear that Damon’s skill-set makes him the most expendable of the 5 guys for 4 positions.

What’s interesting is that I suspect the baseball establishment elite considers Pudge a first-ballot HOFer and Posada on the outside looking in at Cooperstown.

well, unfortunately for Posada, the HoF is all about counting stats, and Pudge has almost TWICE as many hits as Posada.

Posada’s offensive peak will be better than Pudge’s, but it just won’t be long enough.

you can blame some of that on a well-timed triple from Joe Girardi.

has one player ever gotten more mileage from a single hit?

I won’t take back the triple.

Games 4, 5, 6 of the ‘96 WS is the single most exhilirating baseball-watching experience of my life.  Every time after that it was expected, y’know?  Not that I’d give back ‘98-00 either.

Any word about plans for Clemens suspension?  They could start it on the day he is cheduled to pitch next and use Wang instead.  I hope its not Karstens or Desalvo or Kei; Kennedy might be interesting but I think Wang on short rest might be best.

With Posada, I think it’s important to remember that he came to catching pretty late… I wouldn’t be surprised if he some very good years left in him. I’m not saying he’ll become Carlton Fisk, but he can still be a very valuable player 4 years from now.

They can appeal the suspension, then drop the appeal so the suspension occurs during a stratch when there is a day off. Yes, I know it is a 5 GAME suspension, but with the day off, the guys who follow Clemens in the rotation can each move up a day and still be going on regular rest.

I won’t take back the triple.

Games 4, 5, 6 of the ‘96 WS is the single most exhilirating baseball-watching experience of my life.  Every time after that it was expected, y’know?  Not that I’d give back ‘98-00 either.

oh, i agree.  and it’s a GOOD thing for the 2007 (and hopefully 2008-2009) Yankees that Posada was held back as long as he was. 

i am happy he doesn’t have that extra mileage.

but it killed his HoF chances.  That was my point.

What’s the difference between P’s numbers and that of the average C since 2000?  What’s the difference between, say, Arod’s numbers and that of the average 3B in the same span?

A quick one I could do is using the hardballtimes WSAB (Win Shares Above Baseline).  If you care to know more about them I would consider going to the source, but over the last four years (including this year):

ARod 17, 24, 12, 14
Po   11,  9, 14, 10

well, unfortunately for Posada, the HoF is all about counting stats, and Pudge has almost TWICE as many hits as Posada

Bill James said - I think in Win Shares but maybe in The New Historical Baseball Abstract - that a catcher would need about 280 Win Shares to be in the hall.  Currently, IRod has 308, and Posada has 214.  So yeah, Rodriguez certainly deserves to be in, and if Posada retires today he probably doesn’t.  But I also expect Posada to put up 60+ Win Shares more before he retires.

has one player ever gotten more mileage from a single hit

Bobby Thompson?

We have to remember that Pudge was in the majors at age 19 and has been a full-time catcher since age 20.  Posada didn’t get to the majors until 23 and didn’t become the full-time starter until age 28.  There’s a difference of 3000 plate appearances between the two, or five full seasons.  My hope is that the late start will keep Posada going for another 3 or 4 years.

From 2000-2007 I have Posada’s offense as being worth 120 runs more than Pudge’s.  Pudge gets a fair amount of that difference back by being the best defensive catcher in the league while Posada’s typically been average or slightly below. 

I did a Keltner list on Posada on Posada during spring training.  My conclusion, he needs a lot more counting stats.

I’d sign him for 3 years with a fourth year option that kicks in based on games played or something.  As far as dollars, who knows.

also, Pudge took steroids.

All this Posada talk gave him a stiff neck so he’s out of the lineup tonight

I’m fine with a little bit of extra rest of Posado.  Does this mean he’ll only play one game against the Indians? I should check the schedule.

Rats, a day game after a night game for the last two games.  Posodo’s bat will be missed.

Sweeny Murti says Chamberlain and brower will assume 6th and 7th inning duties-is the glass half full or half empty?

I can’t believe that they’re still going with the bullpen by numbers approach.  You shouldn’t assign relievers by innings, it’s asinine.

Sweeny Murti says Chamberlain and brower will assume 6th and 7th inning duties-is the glass half full or half empty?

Whichever of the glass that indicates badness.  Why have such strict role assignments when the game is about situations?  And I like to see Chamberlain be more than a one inning guy.

I think he was saying either might pitch both the 6th and 7th innings.  I assume Joba will pitch unless its back to back days.  What happened to Edwar’s being recalled?

Just want to say that I absolutely love all this talk of “Posado.”  Sounds like a square dance move.

the NY Times said Edwar was on his way, right?

also, i can’t figure out for the life of me why Clemens is not appealing his suspension.

will this mean Kei Igawa on Monday?

the NY Times said Edwar was on his way, right

He pitched an inning yesterday, but none the day before.  I wouldn’t think they would want to give him a day off for that, but maybe they are, and would then call him up tomorrow.

Hell, I’d rather send Villone out there Monday—I think he spot-started once last year—rather than Igawa, who would also cost us a roster spot, at least for one game.

Damon or Giambi DHing tonight?

And Edwar means the end of Brower?  Or is that too sensible? 

What are Edwar’s Scranton stats since that disastrous last MLB outing—when Joe threw him out there after letting him rust for 10 days?

To answer my own question…Damon not Giambi.  Boo hiss.

And Betemit in for Phillips.  This seems like the right move, as Phillips appears to be regressing to his normal level of offensive mediocrity…and especially against a righty with a filthy sinker.

I had almost forgotten—we’re getting a little break as Hafner is out with a balky knee.  Nice if he could miss the whole series.

All you guys moaning about Murti’s reporting of bullpen by specific innings, Torre on WFAN said it wouldn’t be the case though he’d prefer using Chamberlain and Farnsworth to start innings.