The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, July 7, 2008

AL LF sorted by Total Offensive and Defensive Runs Above Average - July 7, 2008

Player Tm Lg Pos pBRAA RSAA Total
Damon, Johnny NYA AL LF 14 1 15
Quentin, Carlos* CHA AL LF 15 -3 12
DeJesus, David KC AL LF 9 3 12
Crawford, Carl TB AL LF 1 11 12
Scott, Luke BAL AL LF 7 4 11
**Ramirez, Manny* BOS AL LF 13 -4 9
Thames, Marcus DET AL LF 7 -1 6
Joyce, Matt DET AL LF 1 4 5
Cust, Jack OAK AL LF 7 -3 4
Francisco, Ben CLE AL LF 1 3 4
Thomas, Clete DET AL LF 2 1 3
**Ellsbury, Jacoby BOS AL LF 3 -1 2
Raburn, Ryan DET AL LF 0 1 1
Coats, Buck TOR AL LF 0 1 1
Anderson, Garret LAA AL LF -5 6 1
Carter, Chris BOS AL LF 1 0 0
Guillen, Jose KC AL LF -1 1 0
Tyner, Jason CLE AL LF 0 0 0
Payton, Jay BAL AL LF -6 6 0
Jimerson, Charlton SEA AL LF -1 0 -1
Gardner, Brett NYA AL LF -2 1 -1
Clevlen, Brent DET AL LF -2 1 -1
Christian, Justin NYA AL LF -2 0 -2
Boggs, Brandon TEX AL LF 0 -2 -2
Lind, Adam TOR AL LF -4 1 -2
Denorfia, Chris OAK AL LF -2 -2 -4
Willits, Reggie LAA AL LF -4 0 -4
Thurston, Joe BOS AL LF -2 -2 -4
Michaels, Jason CLE AL LF -4 0 -4
Rivera, Juan LAA AL LF -6 1 -5
Young, Delmon MIN AL LF -4 -1 -5
Mench, Kevin TOR AL LF -4 -2 -6
Jones, Jacque DET AL LF -8 1 -7
Ibanez, Raul SEA AL LF 4 -11 -7
Stewart, Shannon TOR AL LF -8 0 -8
Brown, Emil OAK AL LF -11 1 -10
Dellucci, David CLE AL LF -7 -4 -11


pBRAA: Position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights
RSAA: Defensive runs saved above average

*All Star selection
**RSAA adjusted for Green Monster

Johnny Popup was robbed, although it doesn't matter since he's injured. I can't believe f'in Dellucci beat Joba. He is having an awful season on both sides of the ball.
.
--Posted at 6:35 pm by SG / 14 Comments | - (191)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

I assume that’s AL LF that should be in the blog post title, not AL CF?

Yeah, fixed that.

I had to watch Gardner’s “gritty” AB again from last night.  Awesome.

How are you adjusting for the green monster?

Wow, the Sox are on ESPN again tonight.  The booth just held forth on Varitek’s wonderful intangibles, which qualifies him for the ASG.  Pathetic.

How are you adjusting for the green monster?

Sean Smith, Chris Dial and I came up with an estimate of around 15-20 unplayable chances in Fenway in any given season that are still charged as missed chances to Fenway LF.  Average LF sees about 350 chances over a full season, or 175 at home.  So I divide their actual chances by 350/(175 + 160) and re-calculate a revised zone rating.  That removes the Green Monster penalty fairly well.

Varitek just intangibled a fly-out with the bases loaded.

Theo is going to intangible Veritek out of town after his contract ends this year.

By the way, the sobriquet “popup” really belongs to Melky this season.

Last but not least the Toledo Mudhens put a hurting on our man Jeff Karstens this evening - including a three run bomb by Brandon Inge.

you can’t tell me that Elsbury’s defense is below league average duder.

Actually, I can and I just did.

Seriously, odds are you’re seeing two things here.  The Fenway factor and small sample size.  The way zone rating is scored in Fenway makes Boston LF and CF look worse than they are.

CF: .869 (Lg Avg: .896)
LF: .800 (Lg Avg: .849)
RF: .875 (Lg Avg: .873)

I’d trust the scouting reports over these numbers for now.

The Fenway factor and small sample size.

You’ve already adjusted for The Fenway Factor though, right?  I’ll believe SSS.  However, it is also entirely possible that his defense is more myth than fact.  I suppose in 2-3 years we’ll have an accurate picture…

You’ve already adjusted for The Fenway Factor though, right?

I did, but in a sample of fewer than 50 games a few extra chances could screw up his statistics beyond the adjustment I use.

Ah, like SSS issues, and then apply those same issues again when factoring in Fenway.  I get it.  So again, 2-3 years of data I think we’ll get a fairly good idea of Ellsbury’s defensive prowess.

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