The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

AL CF Run Values Through the First Half of 2009

Player Team Pos PA AVG OBP SLG BRAR RSAA TRAR
Hunter, Torii* LAA CF 324 .305 .380 .558 27 2 29
Granderson, Curtis* DET CF 374 .257 .340 .462 17 5 21
Gutierrez, Franklin SEA CF 297 .295 .360 .441 9 7 16
Byrd, Marlon TEX CF 292 .288 .332 .476 13 3 16
Jones, Adam* BAL CF 332 .307 .361 .495 18 -4 14
Gardner, Brett NYA CF 201 .287 .362 .420 8 0 8
Sizemore, Grady CLE CF 287 .235 .323 .462 8 1 8
Crisp, Coco KC CF 215 .228 .336 .378 5 2 7
Cabrera, Melky NYA CF 262 .278 .336 .432 6 1 7
Hamilton, Josh* TEX CF 147 .263 .313 .474 5 1 6
Ellsbury, Jacoby BOS CF 347 .303 .352 .410 14 -8 6
Sweeney, Ryan OAK CF 269 .265 .317 .355 -3 8 4
Upton, B.J. TB CF 354 .240 .330 .380 8 -7 1
Gomez, Carlos MIN CF 194 .220 .276 .322 -5 5 0
Golson, Greg TEX CF 1 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
Owens, Jerry CHA CF 15 .083 .267 .083 -1 1 0
Hairston, Scott OAK CF 5 .200 .200 .800 0 -1 -1
Maier, Mitch KC CF 148 .215 .295 .315 -2 2 -1
Davis, Rajai OAK CF 121 .248 .322 .321 -2 1 -1
Crowe, Trevor CLE CF 74 .169 .250 .215 -5 1 -4
Freel, Ryan KC CF 24 .333 .333 .333 0 -4 -4
Wells, Vernon TOR CF 375 .262 .312 .410 5 -10 -5
Anderson, Brian CHA CF 197 .231 .318 .312 -5 0 -5


BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level (position and park-adjusted) using linear weights
RSAA: Runs saved above average defensively using zone rating for non-catchers
TRAR: Total runs above replacement level (BRAR + RSAA)
* denotes All Star
** stats were compiled as of July 7

Brett Gardner > Grady Sizemore, just like I expected.

--Posted at 6:57 am by SG / 36 Comments | - (120)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

And I know the chart says Gardner is +8/0 and Sizemore is +8/+1 and has both at +8, but that’s a rounding issue.  Gardner is +8.4/0, Sizemore is +7.5/+0.6.

FanGraphs doesn’t give Gardner quite as high of marks for offense, but UZR has him rated much higher for defense (9.4, 3.5 of which is from his arm).  Overall they have him 4th among AL CF, less than a run below Granderson.  Might be something interesting for the off-season if you are bored; compare how you calculate WAR compare to FanGraphs to see where the differences are, and if one can tell us something the other doesn’t.

It’s funny how the Yankees have two part-time CF, both of whom are more valuable than Ellsbury.

CF has been a pleasant surprise this year…with his speed, I really dig on Gardner’s .360 OBP.

On ESPN and Fangraphs they have Gardner’s numbers as
282/.352/.404/.756

And Melky’s as
.285/.347/.439/.786


And is there a reason for Ellsbury’s low RSAA and UZR?  He has speed and he was very good last year.

I didn’t realize that Hunter was having such a good season.  Just like the Angels - they can fall into a puddle of mud and come out wearing a shiny new brown suit.

Nevermind, as of July 7th.  I thought that was an ** for one specific player.

I think Gardner would be a more effective hitter if he stopped uppercutting so much.

Sizemore was out for a while with an injury.  Not sure if that could contribute to his lower BRAR.

But Ellsbury -8?  That seems very low.  I’ve covered a lot of their games and he’s seemed above average defensively.  I know ZR is somewhat park adjusted but I wonder if Fenway has hurt him here.

But Ellsbury -8?  That seems very low.  I’ve covered a lot of their games and he’s seemed above average defensively.  I know ZR is somewhat park adjusted but I wonder if Fenway has hurt him here.

Don’t question it.  Just enjoy it.

Don’t question it.  Just enjoy it.

I second the motion!

FanGraphs has Ellsubry at -8.9 total, -3.3 for his arm and -.4 for errors.  Could be the other way around too, that Fenway is *helping* him at home and he’s doing much worse on the road.  Or not.

Upton at -7 seems kind of strange.  He’s always been a pretty good defender, hasn’t he?

Upton’s always been so fast that we presumed he was a good defender (he’s one of those “Water covers 70 percent of the Earth and BJ Upton covers the rest” guys), but maybe that’s wrong?

ESPN.com had one of the best headlines ever.

The top headline on their Rumor Central feature (so the one headline that shows up on the front page under RUMOR CENTRAL)...

Joba bound for pen?

So I’m like, oh man, is that being rumored?

And then the actual piece is…

Joba bound for pen?

Well, if Joe Girardi listens hard enough to the clamor in New York, that’s where he’ll send his struggling 5th starter.

Just listen to former Yank Goose Gossage: “This guy was their savior two years ago when they didn’t have a set-up guy. They wouldn’t have made the playoffs without Joba. He’d be the perfect [set-up] guy. If you could impact three or four ballgames a week instead of one…I think you’re wasting a tremendous talent.”

Yesterday we mentioned that Girardi could consider Sergio Mitre as a fifth starter.

Seriously, ESPN?

Seriously?!?

Good thing Hunter wasn’t playing in our series with the Angels. Oh wait.

Since I mentioned that the OF offense seems to be down this year, I guess in the past there probably would have been big numbers by Hamilton, Wells, Granderson, Sizemore, others to give some distance at the top.

Or more generally, it seems like a whole slew/generation of big offensive outfielders has either left or are on the cusp of leaving the game, and the next wave isn’t quite ready to fill in yet.

Or maybe it’s less PED.

Or I could just be wrong about this whole premise.

Awesome ‘insider info’ right there from ESPN. People actually pay for the crap they put up on their ‘ESPN Insider’ service.

Dont they know you can go to SportSpyder and find the same info for free?

Dont they know you can go to SportSpyder and find the same info for free?

Or from Brian’s [13], listening to sports radio, or hitting oneself in the head with a hammer.

Seriously, ESPN?

Did you see the poll on the MLB section?  “Are Alex Rodriguez’s best years behind him?”.  He’s 33, of course his best years are behind him!  I’m sure this is Buster Olney looking at his batting average (ignoring the fact his OPS+ is exactly the same as last year, and slightly higher than his career mark) and wondering if he’s relegated to an average player.

He’s 33, of course his best years are behind him!

Barry Bonds and his cream disagree with this.

I’ve stopped reading ESPN altogether.  Terrible (and in many instances, biased) reporting and 90% of their stuff is behind the subscription barrier.  F that.

If anyone thinks that sending Joba to the pen is going to magically cure his velocity and command problems, they’re high.

That’s what I love about the ‘Joba to the pen’ people. They all now say, “See, he sucks as a starter. Put him back in the pen.” like his command and FB velocity will just return by osmisis.

My roomate and I argued about this for 30 minutes on our road trip to see the Yanks this past weekend.

The ironic part is that in April “Joba to the pen” was seen as a way to fix the bullpen. Now “Joba to the pen” is seen as a way to fix Joba.

Is the all star break over yet?

What happened to Hughes when he went to the bullpen?  He got much better.  I have always supported Joba as a SP but I am also willing to objectively evaluate the situation.  The facts so far:
1-Joba was a great RP
2-Joba hurt his shoulder
3-Joba has been a poor SP

What I am not clear on is, given the injury, would Joba still be a dominant RP now?  If the answer is yes than we either have to move him to the pen or make the adjustments neccessary to form him into a SP.  I think they should probably give him a few more starts at least but it’s time to look at this objectively and not huff and puff whenever anyone suggests he should be in the pen.

Going through Jennings blog about the AAA outfield, I really wonder what is going to happen with the Yankees outfield next season, or if some kind of trade will be in play for this season. Not that anyone here cares too much for Shel Duncan, but the blog implies he might be gone next season. AJax is showing he’s near ready. Matsui/Damon/Hinske are only signed through 2009. The shortfall seems to be a lefty plus bat.

I’m fine with Joba going to the pen if it means Hughes is starting. Since that still seems to not be an option, I say F you Yankees.

3-Joba has been a poor SP

“Poor” might be too strong. I think below expectation, but acceptable as a fourth/fifth-ish starter. Which, within your framework, still might be arguable that he could return to the pen. I rather tough it out.

Since the All-Star break is the most boring thing known to man, is anyone else really excited to see Robinson’s typically explosive second half? I think it’s still coming (he was red hot before the break) and it’ll be fun to see where his numbers end up this year without the craptastic first half.

Robinson is also leading the AL in K rate, which makes me positive that he’s going to have a big second half.

That Ellsbury rating is a complete joke. He committed his first error of his entire career about a month ago. You can knock his arm, but I fail to see how that gets him to -8 even if he didn’t run down everything in sight, which he does.

I’ve stopped reading ESPN altogether.

Me too. It doesn’t even load properly, not that I care since the content is for morons.

I think Fenway CF has a park effect that’s not captured by zone rating, although it’s not as extreme as LF.  UZR has him even worse, and that’s supposed to adjust for park.  Looks like his career UZR/150 in CF is -4.9, so for whatever reason, he hasn’t made all the plays an average CF is supposed to make.  Could be a positioning issue, does he play shallow?

ESPN is worthless BTW.  I haven’t watched it since MLB network came out, and haven’t been to their website in a long-ass time.

is anyone else really excited to see Robinson’s typically explosive second half?

I’ll take a Cano second half like his ‘08 first half if it means CC repeats his ‘08 2nd half.  Each and every position player in the starting lineup has performed to expectation or exceeded it.  What’s needed is for the pitching staff to kick it to the next level.

I go to ESPN for their match tracker when Grand Slam tennis is on, to see news about the Tour de France or golf, or to check Neyer out every now and again.  You just have to hold your nose and pick through the garbage: slim pickings nonetheless.

Melky Cabrera = Ellsbury + BJ Upton, just like I expected too.

ESPN is worthless BTW.

Like w/ Dave S., I go there for some individual stuff.  I like Neyer (for the most part).  I usually read the chats from Neyer and Keith Law.  I like the blogger who covers the NFC East (name escapes me right now).  And they’re just as good as anyone for checking a box-score quickly, especially when other sports are going on.  But yeah, 10 years ago I could spend an hour reading ESPN, and now maybe 10 minutes.  The only time I watch ESPN is if they have a basketball or football game on I want to watch.

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