Shelley the legend should be at -3, not -4.
That being said its impressive that he’s 3 runs below average after only appearing in 130 innings (less than 15 full games for those who hate math).

Giambi close to decent at 1b

Shelley the legend should be at -3, not -4.

Rounding error.  He’s -4.4 on offense and +.6 on defense.  I need to add a comment about that.

ah, my mistake then

Giambi close to decent at 1b

I would think -2 is within the realm of statistical noise, though I’m sure SG can provide more info on that.

I would think -2 is within the realm of statistical noise, though I’m sure SG can provide more info on that.

Yeah, full season runs saved has a sigma of around 3 either way although it varies by position, but remember that zone rating doesn’t capture scooping ability (which I think Giambi does well) or catching foul popups (something I think Giambi doesn’t do well). 

Subjectively, I think he’s been decent this year defensively, definely better than I would have projected him to be. A few runs below average seems about right.

Sorry, but Jason Giambi is cooked.  I know, because I read it on the internet.

By the way, that’s quite a drop-off for Carlos Peña.  Last season, he was in A-Rod’s league as a hitter.  I don’t think anyone thought he was going to have a hall of fame career from here on out, but he promised to at least be very good.

Sorry, but Jason Giambi is cooked.  I know, because I read it on the internet.

Well I read it in the papers so it has to be true.

Well, IE, a very wise man once said on the radio: “You can’t predict baseball.”

Think Pete Abe ever finds out about this and makes a joke about Farnsworth?

http://tinyurl.com/5lq4dt

By the way, that’s quite a drop-off for Carlos Peña

I haven’t seen too many people here clamoring for him the way they were a few months ago, that’s for sure.

By the way, that’s quite a drop-off for Carlos Peña.  Last season, he was in A-Rod’s league as a hitter.  I don’t think anyone thought he was going to have a hall of fame career from here on out, but he promised to at least be very good.

But-but-but!!  I thought Cashman was an imbecile for not signing Pena!  I heard it from certain RLYW commenters which means it must be true!

Wow, how scary would the 2008 Rays be if they had 2007 Carlos Pena?

Or 2007 Carl Crawford?

I don’t think anyone thought he was going to have a hall of fame career from here on out, but he promised to at least be very good.

I’m sure everyone will have their own definition of “at least very good.”  Without wanting to quibble over that, the thing that everyone seemed to ignore about Pena is that he’s 30 years old, and never managed to actually become the player he was supposed to be all along until he was 29.  Anyone who predicted that he’d repeat 2007, much less improve on it, was going out on a limb.

That said, I think he’s a bit dinged up and is better than he’s played this season.  I don’t think the Rays will regret his contract extension, but we won’t be hearing too much more from the people who were saying that he should have gotten 5/75 instead of 3/24.

Carl Crawford has an OPS+ of exactly 100.  This is his age 27 season and last year he was at 117.  Of course, replacing Iwamura’s production at 3B with Longoria helps as does Dionner Navarro’s emergence after a horrid 2007.

By the way, does Molina start today with all those speedy Rays in the lineup?  I would think he does.  Having Posada catch against the likes of Crawford and BJ Upton would seem a bit foolhardy.

By the way, that’s quite a drop-off for Carlos Peña

He’s been injured a bunch, no?

Yeah, full season runs saved has a sigma of around 3 either way although it varies by position, but remember that zone rating doesn’t capture scooping ability (which I think Giambi does well) or catching foul popups (something I think Giambi doesn’t do well).

Do any of these defensive metrics try and take this into account?  Fielding grounders and snaring line drives are a big part of defense, but I feel like things like zone rating end up missing a huge part of the picture.

not that this is part of this thread, just is the most active currently…

picked this up on yahoo sports, probably the same as some of the numbers that SG ran earlier last week or so…

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=anelitejobachamberlainbe&prov=tsn&type=lgns

seems like the masses are starting to turn around to what we’ve been saying all along.

YankeeMonkey, answer me this: where are the following players now and how are they doing?: Mientkdjknsckz, Andy Phillips, Miguel Cairo, Craig Wilson, Shelly Duncan, Josh Phelps, and Aaron Guiel.  Those are all the guys Cashman/Torre tried at 1B rather than give Carlos Pena ONE AB.  The guy did hit 20 HR’s and walked 63 times in 380 AB’s in AAA and plays gold glove defense as well (don’t be swayed by this years defensive stats- small sample).  He wasn’t worth a shot but those guys were? Would you say opting for all of those guys before Pena was a good or bad move by Cashman.  And don’t use the “even we couldn’t have foreseen Pena being so good” argument.  Cashman is paid to recognize talent and there was never any doubt he had it.  It’s not like Cashman would have had to replace Lou Gehrig or even Jason Giambi.

He’s been injured a bunch, no?

He missed three weeks in June, but he was hitting .227/.333/.430 before that.

But inquiring minds really want to know what happened to his “gold glove” defense.

[20]  That’s a nice article.  I don’t know that David Pinto counts as being among “the masses” as he’s at least fairly sabre-oriented.  I would have liked at least some mention of leverage, because that does count, and might make the argument for Joba-the-starter just a tiny bit less of a slam-dunk.

plays gold glove defense as well

Pena’s defense is good, but I always thought the rep he had was as a bad defensive player and that’s why he didn’t get much of a shot. I could be remember 2006 wrong.

Do any of these defensive metrics try and take this into account? 

UZR and the Fielding Bible do include a first baseman’s scooping ability I believe.  Standard zone rating does actually include line drives as playable chances.

Giambi may get a fancy star next to his name if he gets selected this week.  He’s going up against Longoria, Dye, Roberts and Guillen.  Looks like Longoria is leading the race.

Shelley Duncan did not get a single major league at-bat while the Yankees had Carlos Pena in their system.  Phelps and Mientkiewicz were not signed until the following season either.  I know you don’t think that matters, but Pena only signed a minor league deal with the Yankees in the first place because Cashman promised to release him if he wasn’t on the major league team before September.  So it’s kind of a stretch to say that they could have kept him instead of signing those other guys.  And everybody on the freakin’ planet thought that Craig Wilson was a better idea than Carlos Pena in 2006, not just Cashman.

You really need to let this go.  It’s not good for your health.

j, you are misremembering.  Pena and Nick Johnson arrived in the majors with practically identical profiles as good-glove, high-OBP guys with power potential.  I, for one, have found it interesting to watch neither of them rack up the HOF numbers everyone predicted.  But, as a wise man once said on the radio, “You can’t predict baseball!”  So it must be true.

PagsRags, you might also remember that when the Yankees had Peña in their system, they needed a 1st baseman who could hit . . .  righthanded.

You really need to let this go.  It’s not good for your health.

MC beat me to confirming most of these.  Also, if you look at Pena’s track record, last year is screaming out “freak season”.  He never had an OPS+ over 113 (other than a 121 in a brief period his first year), and suddenly comes up with a 172?  Now this year, he is back to what his numbers used to be.  If the Yankees had given him a ML deal in 2007, and then signed him to a large extension, you’d be screaming about how they were wasting money, and Cashman should have *known* that Pena’s 2007 wasn’t real.

Oh, and Giambi’s better than Pena.

Cashman is paid to recognize talent and there was never any doubt he had it.  It’s not like Cashman would have had to replace Lou Gehrig or even Jason Giambi.

if Cashman didn’t recognize Pena’s talent, why did he sign him?

it seems to me that in those days, Torre had a TON of pull over the 25 man roster.

we can argue all day over whether or not that should be the case, but there is more than just anecdotal evidence that Torre was going to play who he wanted to play.

we know for a fact (or as factual as a newspaper report is taken as) that Torre nixed the acquisition of both Ensberg and Bradley last year, two hitters that could have helped the Yankees.  we know when Craig Wilson was acquired that Torre kept playing Phillips.

we know Torre barely played Phelps and Betemit when they were put on the roster.

Cashman has made statements, in regards to Chris Britton, that he will not tell his manager who to play.

the Yankees whiffed on Pena.  there is no doubt about that.

but i would not be at all surprised to hear that when offered Pena’s services, Torre would have opted to stick with “his guy” Andy Phillips.

now, in fairness to Torre, Phillips had probably the ONLY productive month he’s ever had in the majors at the EXACT time they had Pena in AAA.

Phillips hit .333/.347/.623 in June of 2006, so you could kindof see why Torre wanted to stick with him. 

when Phillips started to fall off in July, Cashman went and got Craig Wilson.

and as i have laid out before, Cashman did go and get Craig Wilson, who was ARGUABLY THE BETTER PLAYER at the time.  every aspect of their respective track records up to that point indicated that Wilson was a better player (at least offensively) than Pena.  everyone here, including SG, was thrilled with acquiring Craig Wilson and thought it was total heist.  the non-Yankee fans on BTF were livid that the Yankees were able to acquire Wilson for seemingly nothing.

i have pointed all of this out before, and i believe your argument was that “but Wilson looked like a doofus while Pena looked like a player”. 

so what is my point?  just that this was a little more complex than you are making it out to be.

i actually agree with you that the people in this thread who are trying to rub your face in Pena’s “decline” are off the mark.  Pena would have helped the 2007 Yankees and he would be helping the 2008 Yankees. 

but it simply isn’t the colossal blunder you continually try to make it out to be.

Frog- I was actually referring to comments made by some of the folks around here. I thought I remembered Pena being pegged by some of us as “might hit, can’t field, so why not just play Giambi?”

Oh, I was thinking of his early career, with Texas and Oakland.  But I’m an historian of sorts.

Pena would have helped the 2007 Yankees and he would be helping the 2008 Yankees.

It’s undeniable that he would have helped the 2007 Yankees.  I think it is debateable how much he would have helped the 2008 Yankees.  Obviously, RIGHT NOW, with Matsui and Damon disabled he would help.  But when they were all healthy, Pena would have pushed Giambi to DH.  Which would have moved Matsui to LF, and Damon to CF.  As bad as Melky has been hitting (though, in April he hit plenty well) I have difficulty believing that big of a drag on defense would justify Pena’s extra offense.  And actually, with Giambi’s April struggles, there’s an excellent chance he would have been benched/released in favor of Pena, which certainly wouldn’t be helping.

If the Yankees sign Texiera, I wonder if Giambi would be: a) willing to re-sign at reasonable dollars ($8 million plus the $5 million buyout) for one year; and b) able to be the DH without a substantial decline in his offensive output.

Giambi is hitting better as the DH than as the 1B this year.  Very small sample size of course, but I still maintain that most of the explanation of his career DH/1B split is a simple reflection of the fact that when he’s healthy enough to play the field, he hits batter.  The real question going forward is whether he will be healthy enough to stave off substantial offensive decline.  Happy as I am about what he’s done this season, bringing him back (even at reasonable dollars) remains a scary thought.

If the Yankees sign Texiera and re-sign Giambit then what do they do with Matsui and Posada?  Posada needs regular breaks (assuming his throwing shoulder recovers) and Matsui was a poor defender prior to the repeated knee operations this season.  I can’t think the team can afford to carry all 4 of those players

BTW, I just voted for Giambi 30 more times.  Something is definitely screwy.  Makes me think they’re not even counting the votes at all, and the whole thing is actually fixed.  The only question is whether it’s fixed for Dye or Longoria.

I think it is debateable how much he would have helped the 2008 Yankees.  Obviously, RIGHT NOW, with Matsui and Damon disabled he would help.

you *could* argue that with Pena’s 2007 (which, by the way, is very debatable that it would have even happened in the Bronx.  how many times has Pena cited his COMFORT in TB as a big reason for his 2007?  maybe the guy just prefers flying under the radar a bit?), the Yankees could have traded one of Giambi, Matsui, or Damon for something to help in other areas.

I can’t think the team can afford to carry all 4 of those players

Haven’t you heard?  MLB is going to allow teams to DH for three fielders in addition to the pitcher next year.

...the Yankees could have traded one of Giambi, Matsui, or Damon for something to help in other areas.

That’s true, though with their NTC’s/contracts/age it may have been difficult to get anything of value in return; or at least anything that could have helped this year or next.  The only one of those three I think we wouldn’t have been bemoaning losing however is Matsui.  As well as he’s played (pre injury), Damon and Giambi I think have been just as - if not more - valuable.  And if Damon were the one to go, Matsui would have been playing LF all season (shudder).

Oh well, pointless diversion.  Here’s one to start a controversy.  What would anyone think of getting Sexson from Seattle, if taking on his contract lowered the cost for Bedard?  Sexson isn’t good, but I wouldn’t mind having his bat off the bench for the rest of the year…

I voted for Longoria, but only once.  After all, it must be a thrill to play in the All-Star game at the age of 22.

I can’t think the team can afford to carry all 4 of those players

either Giambi will not be back or Matsui will be traded.

it really is a shame Matsui is injured, b/c it would be nice if the Yankees could trade him now.

nothing against Matsui, i love Matsui, but if he were healthy he might bring back something good.

Matsui has a full no trade clause so trading him will be quite difficult

either Giambi will not be back or Matsui will be traded.

Seems it wasn’t all that long ago where the Yankees would just keep all of them, and let the playing-time issues sort themselves out.  Perhaps it is just my failing memory that seems like we had that many bats that would start for most teams, being part-time players back in the nineties.

I never said that letting Pena go was the worst mistake ever- all I say is that it was a mistake, among many mistakes (and successes), that has THUS FAR made Cashman an average GM in my opinion.  The defenders of St.Brian say he can do no wrong and that NOBODY could have know Pena would possibly be better than Andy Phillips and Co.  Perhaps if Cash gave him the shot he deserved he would have been able to keep him on in 2007 rather than Phelps, Guiel, & Co. And perhaps we got that year from him.  I’d venture to say that Carlos Pena in 2007 would have won use the Division and possibly more.

Also, the “it’s not Brians fault it’s Torre’s fault” argument is impossible to prove or disprove.  I woulddn;t say a rumor is fact just because it’s published in the newspaper.

Oh well, pointless diversion.  Here’s one to start a controversy.  What would anyone think of getting Sexson from Seattle, if taking on his contract lowered the cost for Bedard?  Sexson isn’t good, but I wouldn’t mind having his bat off the bench for the rest of the year…

Depends on what it costs in terms of prospects.  I’d imagine Seattle isn’t going to dump Bedard for next to nothing, even if they get rid of Sexton.

As for the DH logjam, I’d let Giambi walk, even though he might have a year, maybe two, left in the tank.  He’s having a great year and some team might reward him with a two year deal, and regret it sooner rather than later.  I’d take the draft picks.

My primary reason for letting Giambi go is Jorge Posada.  I can’t see him returning to a serviceable fielding catcher, even if the surgery goes well.  Let him concentrate on hitting.

I’d rather move Matsui than Damon, since Damon is better in the field, but I don’t think many teams will trade for Matsui.  Looks like the Yanks will be stuck with him, unless a team like Seattle plays pass-the-trash and agrees to take Matsui and the Yanks take Sexton.

Bedard has been struggling of late, something about him hitting 95 pitches and his stuff dropping off big-time.

Yanks aren’t trading Matsui. He’s a cash cow. Who knows how much the team makes from Japan on him, but it is a lot.

j, you are misremembering.  Pena and Nick Johnson arrived in the majors with practically identical profiles as good-glove, high-OBP guys with power potential.  I, for one, have found it interesting to watch neither of them rack up the HOF numbers everyone predicted.  But, as a wise man once said on the radio, “You can’t predict baseball!” So it must be true.

Not necessarily. They both were tagged as future Gold Glovers, but for the most part Nick Johnson was looked as a a John Olerud type and Pena was supposed to be more of a slugger. Johnson has, essentially, lived up to his potential when healthy, the problem is he’s almost never healthy.

/NJ apologist.

Bedard has been struggling of late, something about him hitting 95 pitches and his stuff dropping off big-time.

That’s not EXACTLY the issue, but it is along those lines.

What would anyone think of getting Sexson from Seattle, if taking on his contract lowered the cost for Bedard?  Sexson isn’t good, but I wouldn’t mind having his bat off the bench for the rest of the year…

Sexson IS cooked. I wouldn’t take him for free.

Also, the “it’s not Brians fault it’s Torre’s fault” argument is impossible to prove or disprove.  I woulddn;t say a rumor is fact just because it’s published in the newspaper.

In this particular case, I’d say that it’s almost certainly correct, even without any rumors published in any newspapers.

First, think about this for a minute: the Rays were going to stash Pena in the minors, and risk losing him themselves when June 1 rolled around.  The only reason they, a team that would lose 96 games and finish last for the third straight year and ninth time in their ten year existence, gave Pena a chance to play was that the immortal Greg Norton blew out his knee.  But we’re supposed to think that a contender would have just handed him the job, and that he would have responded the same way in the heat of a pennant race with big-market press scrutiny?

But let’s say that Pena had played a little with the Yanks in 2006, and they were able to bring him back for ST 2007.  Maybe they don’t bring in Phelps, but I bet they still sign Mentkiewicz.  In any case, do you really think that Torre would have played Pena ahead of anybody?  That’s a serious question; do you honestly believe that Joe Torre would have played Carlos Pena ahead of anyone else available to him in 2007?  Cashman brought in Kenny Lofton to play CF so Bernie Williams could transition to LF/DH.  What did Torre do in that case?  Why should we think this one would have gone differently?

Sexson IS cooked. I wouldn’t take him for free

But he *does* have an OPS of 1.046 against lefties.  Or put another way, he could fill the role that S. Duncan was supposed to this year, as a RH power-bat off the bench.  It’s not like the Yankees have anyone better to fill that role right now…and again, this is also based on getting Bedard for less.  I agree with Yatt that it depends on the players, but I think it’s worth considering.  Remember too that the Yankees wouldn’t be getting Bedard to be their ace, they’d be getting him to be their 4th starter.  Again, it all depends on what Seattle asks, but if the price is right in players, and the only catch is, “take Sexson or no deal”, I’d be willing to do it.

But let’s say that Pena had played a little with the Yanks in 2006

Pena put up an OPS+ of 96 for Boston in 2006.  I don’t think that would have swayed the Yankees in any way to offer him more than a minor-league deal, if that.

I don’t think that would have swayed the Yankees in any way to offer him more than a minor-league deal

I was only thinking that it might have swayed Pena to accept a minor league deal.

When a Managaer refuses to play a player who it makes sense to play I believe that some blame lies with the GM.  The Yankees take flyers on guys with minimal talent all the time (especially SP)- why not try out this guy who has talent over a bunch of guys who didn’t? Not the end of the world, I just wish a few posters would admit when Cashman makes mistakes. When the guys on the farm pan out and become all-stars like many people seem to think in a certainty then I will give Cashman credit for that.

YOOOOOOOUUUUK!

As for Pena, isn’t it possible that there wasn’t much to look at in 2006? I mean, the Sox and Yanks aren’t stoopid, but they both dumped him. He went to TB, got a ton of at-bats, and the light went on. Right?

When a Managaer refuses to play a player who it makes sense to play I believe that some blame lies with the GM.

This might almost make a small modicum of sense if we could actually believe for one nanosecond that Cashman ever had any meaningful authority over Torre.

I just wish a few posters would admit when Cashman makes mistakes.

Would you give it a rest with this crap already?  Nobody here is anywhere near as single-minded in defending Cashman as you suppose, or as you are in attacking him for missing out on Carlos freakin’ Pena.

the Sox and Yanks aren’t stoopid, but they both dumped him.

So did the Tigers.  And 26 other teams passed on him too.  The Rays got lucky.  Period.

Nobody here is anywhere near as single-minded in defending Cashman as you suppose, or as you are in attacking him for missing out on Carlos freakin’ Pena.

Ditto.  And one of the big things isn’t that we won’t admit when Cashman makes a mistake; most of us just don’t feel that this was one.

Part of the problem is it is difficult to assign credit OR blame to Cashman for pre-2005 moves.  E.g. the Womack and Sheffield deals are well-documented, to NOT be of Cashman’s design.  Some of the other “failures” since then, how much of a failure was it?  Hawkins has been pretty poor; I think most of the Cashman supporters came out *before* the season and said it was low-risk, and anything we get out of it would be gravy.  Some of his other “failures” have actually turned out quite well (e.g. Damon).  So…I guess come up with a different argument, besides, “should have gotten Pena”, or, “hasn’t won a WS since 2000”.