The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, June 16, 2008

A Tale of Two Lefties

With Chien-Ming Wang suffering a foot injury, there's a new meme going around that the Yankees should explore trading for C.C. Sabathia. If Sabathia is truly available, I think it's at least worth exploring. While I'd like to think that the Yankees have enough young pitching in the minors to last them for the next 10 years, the truth is that most of the names we're reading about now will not pan out. With 40 man roster issues and the Rule 5 draft looming, at some point the Yankees are going to lose some of the arms they are developing, so it makes sense to get something of value for them.

I like Sabathia quite a bit. He's got a great combination of stuff and control, and he's developed into a workhorse. While there are valid concerns about his weight, I wouldn't really be all that worried about him since he's been pretty durable and healthy. He started this season off poorly but has been as good as ever more recently.

Johan Santana was available if the Yankees wanted him this offseason, but they felt the price was too high. So why would they trade for Sabathia when Santana is clearly better? Here are two sets of numbers to ponder.

Player A
Year Age G W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WAA WAR Value
2009 28 32 19 10 222 221 100 92 21 44 181 3.72 1.8 4.6 $20,727,852
2010 29 32 19 10 220 219 100 92 20 43 177 3.76 1.7 4.5 $20,090,486
2011 30 31 18 10 214 214 98 91 20 41 170 3.82 1.5 4.2 $18,904,375
2012 31 30 17 9 203 204 95 88 19 38 160 3.89 1.3 3.8 $17,240,196
2013 32 28 15 9 189 192 91 84 18 35 146 3.98 1.0 3.4 $15,203,250
2014 33 25 14 8 172 178 85 78 16 31 131 4.09 0.7 2.9 $12,923,107
Total 178 101 56 1221 1228 568 525 114 231 964 3.87 8 23 $105,089,267


Player B
Year Age G W L IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WAA WAR Value
2009 30 33 20 9 224 180 92 85 30 52 219 3.40 2.7 5.5 $24,528,340
2010 31 32 19 9 213 172 89 82 29 48 205 3.47 2.4 5.0 $22,637,377
2011 32 29 17 8 199 162 85 78 27 44 188 3.54 2.0 4.5 $20,284,055
2012 33 27 16 8 181 150 79 73 25 40 168 3.64 1.7 3.9 $17,613,020
2013 34 24 14 7 162 137 73 68 23 35 147 3.75 1.3 3.3 $14,866,583
2014 35 21 12 7 142 122 66 61 20 31 126 3.88 0.9 2.7 $12,090,431
Total 166 97 47 1121 923 484 447 155 250 1053 3.59 11 25 $112,019,806


WAA: Wins above average
WAR: Wins above replacement
Value: WAR times $4.5 million

With the caveat that I have as much faith in multi-year pitching projections as I do in Kyle Farnsworth, 8th inning man™, these are the CAIRO projections for Sabathia and Santana if they were Yankees over the next six years. Right now, Santana(Player B) is the better pitcher and that's pretty indisputable. It's also fairly unlikely that Sabathia will end up being any better than Santana at any point over the next six years. But Sabathia has one big advantage on Santana, he is two years younger. So even though he's not likely to be as good as Santana has been, due to the attrition rate as pitchers age, he's at least projected to be fairly similar in overall value due to a better likelihood of durability.

Like I alluded to, projecting pitchers is iffy. Projecting them out for six years is even iffier. Any of the thousands of pitches they throw every season could be their last. But the argument that the Yankees didn't go for Santana so they shouldn't go for Sabathia doesn't really make sense.

As far as what it would take to get him, it won't be cheap. If Sabathia leaves as a free agent the Indians would get a first round pick and a supplemental pick, so they'd have to get at least two players whom they feel are better than that. Odds are also pretty good that Boston will get in the mix to at least raise the price for the Yankees.

Obviously the best case scenario is Sabathia leaving as a free agent and the Yankees signing him for just cash and a lost first round pick, but it's also pretty unlikely to happen.

Anyway, while I like the idea of at least inquiring about Sabathia, I'd probably be hesitant to give up the players Cleveland would most likely be looking for. If a deal can be made while keeping Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, and Dellin Bettances then I'd probably be amenable to listening.
--Posted at 9:28 am by SG / 134 Comments | - (240)

Comments

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“But the argument that the Yankees didn’t go for Santana so they shouldn’t go for Sabathia doesn’t really make sense”

I agree. The scenario now is much different than in the offseason, when we thought we had a good rotation based on young arms (Kennedy, Joba and Hughes) and with experienced arms to fill the rest of the rotation. And I think that the Yanks made a good decision passing on Santana because they had so much faith in Hughes and Kennedy. But now is a different story. Hughes looks like an injury prone pitcher with an avergae FB and Kennedy has control problems along with question marks on his stuff to get major leaguers out.

So getting CC will feel our need for this season and also we’ll have an ace for years to come and will not have to hope for Hughes and Kennedy to be big parts of our rotation.

I’d trade a package based on Cano, Hughes, Kennedy or Melky along with type B prospects. Also I think that CC could agree to an extention, don’t you? He is going to make FA money and he’ll play for a conteneder for many years to come.

I think CC (and his buddy Lebron) would love to move to NY. Pure speculation though but he seems like someone who would thrive at the big stadium in the bronx. Yes I know he is 1-8 against the yanks and his numbers at the stadium are pretty bad, but his line against boston in his career looks pretty good to me and he is pretty damn good in fenway.

who is cc’s agent?

Boras, I think.

I’d trade a package based on Cano, Hughes, Kennedy or Melky along with type B prospects.

No on Hughes and Cano.  I’d be willing for either Kennedy or Melky, IF they get that window to get him to agree to an extension.  I don’t want either of those going in a rental.

I still think the best chance of getting Sabathia is if this goes into August, which is very likely.  Right now, Cleveland will ask for the best 5 players in the Yankees system, at least, and that is a big “no”.

I would be willing to move Dellin.

I’d throw Horne, Kennedy or Melancon their way. I don’t know if anyone else would interest them. Trading young position players from this team, even ones as middling as Melky, is crazy.

Probably do Betances too. Definitely not Hughes or Cano.

Are you serious you won’t include Hughes to get the CC Sabathia? Why?

I did not want him to be part of the package to get Johan, but now that I watched him pitch more games and realized that he has only two pitches including an 89 mph FB and also realized how often he injures himself and how slow he heals I just want him out if we can still get something good for him. And CC Sabathia is not just something good. He is the second best LHP in the AL.

when is the last time a big time free agent to be was traded and signed an extension during the season?

why would he sign an extension mid-season?

I think the only way this works is if Cleveland gives the Yankees a negotiating window.  I don’t know if Boras is willing to extend now.  But, otherwise, I can’t see a package that is worthwhile for a rental, being enough to interest Cle.

I would not trade Hughes.  I would trade Melky, but only if you got another CF from someplace.  A Matsui, Damon, Abreu outfield is not a viable option.  Likewise, I would trade Cano (and I said this winter I would have done Cano + B prospects for Santana), but again, you need to find a 2B from somewhere.

I rather keep Melancon than Betances, Hughes and Kennedy.

I did not want him to be part of the package to get Johan, but now that I watched him pitch more games and realized that he has only two pitches including an 89 mph FB and also realized how often he injures himself and how slow he heals I just want him out if we can still get something good for him.

89 MPH fastball?  based on what?

2008 with a broken rib:
type Speed (MPH)
Fastball   91.98

2007:
type Speed (MPH)
Fastball   92.27

dakranker your way off on hughes. Who knows how many games he pitched with that broken rib. We have seen how good he can be in the postseason last year when he led us to another game. Oft injured? probably. but still a potentially dominant guy. Kennedy on the other hand was just sucking while healthy.

People who are willing to sell the farm for 2 months of Sabathia are insane.  Boras will not sign an extension midseason, period.  So at the end of it all, you’re left with a big fat ZERO: no Sabathia AND no prospects.  Brilliant!!!

Who plays 2B if you trade Cano?  The team has no backup option and Cano has a fantastic track record.  It would be the height of foolishness to give up on a 25 year old, gold glove caliber 2B who has a three years of good hitting behind him because of a poor two and a half months.  I would trade Melky though, because the team has a major league ready CF in Gardner.

YM - If the yanks got CC and could not sign him we would get 2 (i believe) compensation picks.

Does anyone want to take a shot at who the next 5 pitchers to come up from the minors will be?

Is it possible for us to compete without a month of CM Dub? I think it is if the offense stays healthy and Joba steps up big.

CC is not going anywhere anytime soon. 

First, I doubt the Indians are going to call it quits this early in the season. 

Second, no team, including the Yanks, is going to give up big minor league talent for a half-season CC rental.  They’ll want a window to negotiate a new contract.  I can’t see Boras allowing that to happen.  He wants as many teams as possible bidding for CC’s services.  That happens during free agency.

Even if the first two roadblocks are traversed, what exactly do the Yanks have that the Indians want, especially if the Indians want position players?  Do you give up Cano and Jackson and Montero (plus an arm probably) for CC when you can have him for a lost draft pick after the season?

I don’t think trading for CC is worth it, even if he is available and Boras is willing to open a window for a contract extension.  Don’t sell the farm for a player you can get for a draft pick after the season.

Are you serious you won’t include Hughes to get the CC Sabathia? Why?

because you are only trading for 12 starts.

if you can convince me that Sabathia would sign an extension mid-season without testing the market, i would listen.

but right now, i don’t believe that at all.

remember, he already rejected a pretty sizable offer from Cleveland, a team that by all accounts he loves to play for.

I just think that CC will be better than Hughes. So I don’t care if the Yankees have to pay CC Sabathia rather than wait if Hughes can be an ace in the future, and I really don’t think so.

I just think that CC will be better than Hughes

I think you mean Hughes won’t outpeform CC.  I agree.  Most prospects, even the most hyped ones, won’t outperform a pitcher like CC.  However, it’s not worth trading any valuable prospects for a three month rental.

Keep Hughes and the other prospects that you would have to send to Cleveland and watch them develop alongside CC, whom you could sign once the season ends for the price of a 1st round draft pick.

Don’t fall victim to the Win Now strategy.

IE, I don’t see how a hot three months have you convinced that Gardner is a ML ready CFer, before this season he wasn’t even considered a serious prospect.

So I don’t care if the Yankees have to pay CC Sabathia rather than wait if Hughes can be an ace in the future, and I really don’t think so.

right, but the problem is if you trade Hughes for Sabathia and Sabathia signs with the Cubs in the offseason.

what do you get, the 30th pick in the draft?  for Phil Hughes?

If the Yanks offer Sabathia an extension paying him Johan’s money, why is he going to say no? It’s very good money and he’s going to wear pinstripes for a while. Also he also avoids the risk of an injury for 3 months. I know Boras is his agent, but Boras is not stupid and will let CC know that Santana’s money is fucking awesome.

Why have 20 some odd bad innings with an injury this year completely erased everyone’s memories of Hughes from last year?

I’m not saying Gardner will be a star, but he could easily give the team what Melky is currently providing, i.e. excellent CF defense and slightly below average offense.  Also, Gardner has always hit around .300 with a high OBP.  The difference this year is extra base hits.

I’d be willing to trade for Sabathia if and only if we can sign him to an extension, if not then I’ll pass and wait for him to be a FA in the offseason. I just don’t see a reason why he won’t want an extension from the New York Yankees.

“Why have 20 some odd bad innings with an injury this year completely erased everyone’s memories of Hughes from last year?”

He wasn’t that good last year. And also he spent like 3 months on the DL. I am more concerned that Hughes could be an injury prone pitcher than I am about his stuff.

I just don’t see a reason why he won’t want an extension from the New York Yankees.

1.  I realize this may come as a shock to you, but not everyone in the world wants to play for the Yankees.

2.  His agent is Scott Boras.

Why have 20 some odd bad innings with an injury this year completely erased everyone’s memories of Hughes from last year?

I really don’t think it is “everyone”.  I think it is two or three people who are making their voices heard now.  But you may also notice there are more people trying to shout them down.

IE, I don’t see how a hot three months have you convinced that Gardner is a ML ready CFer, before this season he wasn’t even considered a serious prospect.

Gardner has done well at each level in the organization.  Each year he’s sent up to the next level mid-season, struggles to adjust, and after adjustment plays very well.  So it is not just, “a hot three months”.  Add in the fact that with the way Melky is playing right now the bar is low, and I’d be willing to do that trade for Sabathia, again if there is a window.

when is the last time a big time free agent to be was traded and signed an extension during the season?

why would he sign an extension mid-season?

I don’t know the answer to the first.  The second it depends on the money and if he wants the better shot at the championship THIS year.  Either way, it is a matter of setting parameters.  It doesn’t matter what the odds are of CC signing mid-season, it is a matter of the Yankees shouldn’t do a trade if he doesn’t.  If they make the deal and CC says, “not interested” in signing a contract oh well.

Why have 20 some odd bad innings with an injury this year completely erased everyone’s memories of Hughes from last year?

What have you done for me lately?

he spent like 3 months on the DL.

The hamstring injury was legit, but an ankle sprain is a freak accident, like the Wang injury. Using that as a sign of him being injury prone is bullshit. It may be true, but he only would have been on the DL for about 6 weeks without it last year.

“Why have 20 some odd bad innings with an injury this year completely erased everyone’s memories of Hughes from last year? “

Because people love to panic and let their fear overwhelm judgement.

“He wasn’t that good last year. And also he spent like 3 months on the DL. I am more concerned that Hughes could be an injury prone pitcher than I am about his stuff.”

That’s silly.  He’s 22 F-ing years old.  At 21 he was a league average pitcher.  Most guys his age are seniors in college.

He has to be untradeable.  Especially for a rental.

He has to be untradeable.

I would trade him for say, Chase Utley, so that they can then use Cano in a deal.  But that’s about it (maybe Pujols if the Yankees’ medical staff thinks his recent injuries aren’t a concern).

He has to be tradeable because he is just a fucking prospect and the Yankees can afford to sign superstars like CC who is just 27 years old and his projections are among the best in the majors and if he is available and the Indians want Hughes and CC want a contract extension, then is a no brainer to take that risk.

I know we want to win with our farm system, but giving up one of them to get an ace is a good strategy to build a championship team.

IE made the point about Melky I was thinking about. A couple of weeks ago we were wondering (or maybe it was at RAB) where the point of trying Gardner instead of Melky makes sense.  As long as its a plus defender in CF who provides something on offense (in Gardner’s case it would be plus speed and a little power/OBP, while in Melky’s case, he seems to do everything just about average/slightly below average) then you should consider Melky a tradeable commodity, especially to a team like the Indians who are looking for position players, not pitchers.

By the by, would the Indians even WANT Cano in a trade like this? Cano is expensive and currently sucking - he’s not the same commodity he was before he signed the extension (and began the suckiness).

j- I don’t think the Indians want Melky with Sizemore in CF. They will ask for pitching, I think, as they are going to give up their ace.

Pujols? Utley? Yeah sign me up for that. I think it would have to involve getting Pat Gillick and John Mozeliak really drunk though.

“He has to be tradeable because he is just a fucking prospect and the Yankees can afford to sign superstars like CC who is just 27 years old and his projections are among the best in the majors and if he is available and the Indians want Hughes and CC want a contract extension, then is a no brainer to take that risk.”

He’s not just a prospect.  Last year he was the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, who has proven he can get major league hitters out.

You’re just fundamentally misvaluing Hughes and Sabbathia.

You will pay CC a ton of money (full market price).  Getting that opportunity 3 months earlier is just not worth a ton.  Look what Minn. got for Santana.

Also he also avoids the risk of an injury for 3 months.

but he is already set for life.  that’s what gives him all the leverage in the world to hold out for free agency and choose where he wants to go and the contract he takes.

how many 27 year old players have ALREADY earned $35M?  not many.  it’s a unique situation.

your entire argument is predicated on the belief that Sabathia WANTS to be a NY Yankee and frankly no one here knows if that is even true. 

maybe he wants to play for Detroit. or Chicago.  or go to California.

j- I don’t think the Indians want Melky with Sizemore in CF

Sure, Sizemore >> Melky, but I would view Melky as a nice upgrade over David Dellucci. An OF of Melky, Sizemore and Guterriez would probably be the best defensive OF in the AL, and has a lot of youth and upside. So, certainly reasonable to think that Shapiro might be interested in Melky.

maybe he wants to play for Detroit. or Chicago.  or go to California.

Or perhaps he wants to be a lumberjack (cue the music)!

Honestly what I don’t understand is saying Hughes for CC. It’s not a straight up deal. The package would probably have to be like Hughes, Jackson, McCallister/Montero just to start talking. I twould probably take even more than that to get it done and this is all for the right to pay CC 25 mill a year. Which he may end up being close to worth but is still a lot of money. To be honest I think I’d be willing to gamble the rest of this year a little bit and get either Sabathia or Teixiera in the off-season while keeping Hughes and the rest of them.

My argument is that he will be happy to get Santana’s money before he is a FA and will also be happy to play for a contender. I don’t even know if he wants to be a yankee, but if he becomes a Yankee he’ll be rich and also he’ll be playing for a contender almost every year.

When you are a FA there is a risk that you get a good offer from a shitty team (see Zito and Arod) and maybe tehre are players who’ll be willing to earn 10% less and have the cahnce to win it all once in his life.

I see the NY Times claim that Wang said he heard a “pop” in his foot. I hope that’s just BS, because “pop” cannot be good at ALL.

“But the argument that the Yankees didn’t go for Santana so they shouldn’t go for Sabathia doesn’t really make sense”

I agree that you need to judge each deal on it’s own merits, but we at least have a window into the way the FO thinks. If they weren’t willing to make a deal for Santana, then what has changed which would make them want to deal for Sabathia? We’ve made most of the points here I think, but based on what they did (or didn’t do last year) the burden is going to be on the Indians offering something that makes sense for the Yankees, and not the other way around.

I do think Wang’s injury will be long term. I really hope I’m wrong.

Mike, nice.

BC, feeling/hearing a pop is never good but it’s also not always as bad as it sounds. Sometimes you can feel/hear a pop and you haven’t done anything too bad. Anecdotally, when I sprained my ankle this past winter/spring, I heard and felt a pop and thought that I had either broken my leg or ruptured a tendon, ended up with a high ankles sprain that took over a month to recover from but until I got it diagnosed, which really has to wait for a day or so for the swelling to go down, I was terrified.

I think it is two or three people who are making their voices heard now.  But you may also notice there are more people trying to shout them down.

Fair enough.

Gardner has done well at each level in the organization.  Each year he’s sent up to the next level mid-season, struggles to adjust, and after adjustment plays very well.  So it is not just, “a hot three months”.  Add in the fact that with the way Melky is playing right now the bar is low, and I’d be willing to do that trade for Sabathia, again if there is a window.

It is just a hot 3 months. Before this year, his ceiling was considered to be decent 4th OFer, he wasn’t on any top 10 or top 11 Yankee prospect lists. Now you’re willing to start him in CF midseason, even though you acknowledge he struggles when he’s bumped up a level. You can’t lean on all the previous information if there’s such a dramatic difference between the consensus evaluation before the season as to what Gardner could be and what you’re proposing now unless you’re also claiming that Sickels, Goldstein, Fabian, and BA were all wrong at the beginning of the season.

BC, feeling/hearing a pop is never good but it’s also not always as bad as it sounds. Sometimes you can feel/hear a pop and you haven’t done anything too bad. Anecdotally, when I sprained my ankle this past winter/spring, I heard and felt a pop and thought that I had either broken my leg or ruptured a tendon, ended up with a high ankles sprain that took over a month to recover from but until I got it diagnosed, which really has to wait for a day or so for the swelling to go down, I was terrified.

I love the experience you bring to the sports injuries, Clay! Very useful, thanks!

But still - if it WAS a pop, we’re LIKELY looking at the majority of the season, if not all of it, right?

If Melky is a good blue chip I think we can afford to play Gardner in CF for 3 months. In the worst case scenario you can play Damon in center and Matsui in left, having Gradner as a late deffensive backup.

I agree that you need to judge each deal on it’s own merits, but we at least have a window into the way the FO thinks. If they weren’t willing to make a deal for Santana, then what has changed which would make them want to deal for Sabathia

it all comes down to the specific players i think.

the yankees were loathe to trade Phil Hughes.  the Twins were not really interested in making a realistic offer without Hughes (Kennedy and Wang?).

maybe the Indians are interested in making a realistic offer without Hughes. 

i can easily find an argument where you do 1 trade but not the other.  it all comes down to what players are changing hands.

the Yankees and Twins were simply not able to come to that agreement.

Yes. Also, High ankle sprains really suck. And, I wish I didn’t bring all this experience to the sports injuries.

Given that he couldn’t walk I’d go for the more sever side of things as well. Even with a total tear there’s a possibility, although very, very remote, he could be back for september/post season.

*more severe meaning out for the season.

But still - if it WAS a pop, we’re LIKELY looking at the majority of the season, if not all of it, right?

Paul Pierce says no.

And, I wish I didn’t bring all this experience to the sports injuries.

Ha! I bet!

Ah well, at least you got some information out of it all. Yes - that’s right - the key thing here is that Brian is later informed by your pain. wink

What about Bedard?  Seattle is definitely going nowhere this year.

Paul Pierce says no.

Oh? Pierce had a pop with that injury?

Awesome!

Then again, that dude was stabbed in the back several times and was back playing way too soon afterwards, so Pierce may just be like Bruce Willis’ character in Unbreakable.

Don’t talk about playoffs with Wang out. I would like to see the rest of the season projected without Wang, and with a replacement level starter taking his spot.

I guess not having Wang should be a 4 windowngrade from this point till the end of september.

SHOCKINGLY, Tiger is already a stroke ahead of Mediate after two holes.

Shocking.

it all comes down to the specific players i think.

I think it’s actually more than players. Whether or not you think the Yankees are planning to sign Sabathia in the offseason, they certainly have that ability right now.  In a rationale sense, each start that Sabathia makes for the Indians and not the Yankees should decrease his value to the Yankees. So, 12-16 starts should not be worth much.  The flip side for the Indians is that they should only be trying to increase their return on Sabathia - which as it stands now is the first rounder and compensation rounder.  This of course assumes that the Indians are ready to throw in the towel now.

I’d start with Kennedy and Melky, and demand a 72 hour negotiating window for an extension.  Kennedy + Melky + a little less per year and maybe a 5 year contact instead of 6 or 7 would be worth it.

Yes. Also, High ankle sprains really suck. And, I wish I didn’t bring all this experience to the sports injuries.

High ankle sprains are the worst.  My doctor told me it’s better to break your ankle than have a high ankle sprain.  The break heals more quickly.

I know what he meant.  I suffered a high ankle sprain in HS and it took a good month to get all the blood out of my foot.  It took a good three months to walk w/o a limp.  My basketball season was shot.  Of course, that was in the late 80s and I didn’t have access to the medical care and therapy services that Wang will have.  Hope he gets better quicker, if indeed he has a high ankle sprain.

“I’d throw Horne, Kennedy or Melancon their way. I don’t know if anyone else would interest them. Trading young position players from this team, even ones as middling as Melky, is crazy.”

If we trade Melky now we lose a lot of outfield defense. Cano is a keeper- he will come around-he just needs to ride the pine from time to time.

On CC, you have to also consider what if the Tribe finds its way back into the race by August?  That may make it hard to dump him for a return of players.


Nice hit for Jeter yesterday, huh? Let’s hope he gets rolling soon.  I don’t think Wang will return in 08 but I hope I’m wrong.

eh, doesn’t sound like that’s what he has, but its what I had, fortunately for me, it sounds like I didn’t mess up my ankle as bad as you did Yatt. I was walking after 2-3 days and running again after a month, I couldn’t do lateral motion for about 2 months though. My ankle is still stiff now about 4 months later.

It’s amazing to me that people are ready to dump Cano so quickly.

Here’s a little exercise.  Which of the following stat lines is more meaningful?

PA     AVG     OBP     SLG    OPS+
1707   .314    .346    .489    117
274    .225    .269    .322     60 

“1.  I realize this may come as a shock to you, but not everyone in the world wants to play for the Yankees. “

True enough today-but if they are reluctant to be Yankees, we don’t want them do we?

Also, after the palace opens next year, perhaps everyone will.

the one where he sucks, OBVIOUSLY.

Hey SG, do you think you could run some sort of projection on how much improvement Sabathia would be over the motley crew Yanks would have to use to take up Wang’s innings (IPK, Hughes, Giese)?

SG, how many wins downgrade will be if we lose Wang for the season and we’ll replace him with a replacemnet level starter?

Cano has also been fantastic at fielding his position this season.

Also, if you trade Cano, you are losing arguably the best defender on the team (currently +5 runs saved compared to average, on pace to be +13 after being +9 last year).  Right now Rodriguez and Damon are slightly better, but Damon gives back some of his value in LF with his arm and Rodriguez is playing better defense than he has since 2004 so it’s very possible he will regress.

From what I see, Cleveland could use corner OFs and possibly a 3B.  They actually have a fair amount of pitching on the way, plus Carmona who’s only 24, so throwing a bunch of live arms at them isn’t going to work.

Hey SG, do you think you could run some sort of projection on how much improvement Sabathia would be over the motley crew Yanks would have to use to take up Wang’s innings (IPK, Hughes, Giese)?

SG, how many wins downgrade will be if we lose Wang for the season and we’ll replace him with a replacemnet level starter?

Sure.  Let’s wait for the Wang diagnosis and then I’ll get something up.

Clay - I had the worst grade sprain.  I landed on a guy’s foot and turned my ankle almost to the ground (or so it seemed).  A couple of years ago, I did it again while playing in a rec league.  After a couple of months of therapy, I went to the doctor because it still swelled on occasion.  He told me I tore a ligament and had bone chips.  He gave me two choices: get the ligament re-attached and face a year of therapy or give up basketball.  I gave it up and now swim.

It’s cutting side-to-side that did me in since the ligament wasn’t giving me any support.  I could run no problem.  But do a quick cut and I was in trouble unless I had a brace.

The best therapy I had on my ankle consisted of a balancing exercise.  The therapist had me on a wooden board.  Attached underneath the board was half a rubber medicine ball, curved side on the floor.  I had to balance on the board using my bad ankle.  As I got better, I’d have to start catching tennis balls and then small medicine balls.  Worked like a charm.

Another thing to note is how good the bullpen has been this year. Hawkins has been bad, Farnsworth has been Farnsworth, but aside from that, they’re getting the job done, to the tune a 3.49 ERA (good for something like 5th or 6th in the AL.)  The Yankees need to replace Wang with someone who goes into the 6th or 7th regularly - even if it means giving up 4 runs each time - to not turn a good bullpen into a bad one through overuse. Maybe they should get creative with the bench, go back down to 3 catchers, and call up another pitcher.

Even operating on the assumption that Wang is gone for the year, would it be so bad to not make a deal at all? Kennedy is nearly back and was just starting to figure it out a bit when he hit the DL. If he pitches reasonably well, a revitalized offense may be able to keep them in contention through the next couple of weeks.

And if they are able to stay in the race, they can make a deal closer to the July 31st deadline to supplement the rotation (maybe for Rich Harden or Randy Wolf) if desired, or hold out a little longer until Hughes’ return in mid-August. Hell, Alan Horne may be rolling at that point and worth a shot.

If they can’t stay in contention - well, there were a lot of signs through the first three months of the season saying “it wasn’t meant to be this year.”  And at least they wouldn’t have unloaded the system for a three month rental who, by the way, sucked big-time in the playoffs last year, AND is available for cash this offseason.

Are there any decent pitchers on losing teams who might be available in a salary dump for middlling prospects?  After all, we don’t have to get the BEST available pitcher, just one who’s measurably better than Kei Igawa.

Jeff Weaver’s available for cold hard cash…

Jeff Weaver’s available for cold hard cash…

Hey, it worked for St Louis Cardinals…

“Jeff Weaver”


Say it with me:  Knows-how-to-win, pitched-in-the-World-Series JEFF WEAVER!

Jeff Weaver’s available for cold hard cash…

so is Boomer.

I could see Boomer having some kind of nostalgia fueled, bizarely efffective, 3 month run for the Yanks.  Especially if they let him wear Babe’s cap.

#50 - Sickels, BA and all of them also didn’t project Cano to even be a backup infielder.  Fabian’s opinion I respect, but that doesn’t mean he is infallible.  And yes, I expect him to have some difficulties adjusting, but I’m *not* talking about just sitting Melky down so Gardner can play.  I’m saying I think Melky+Igawa/Karstens <<<< Gardner+Sabathia. 

The only thing that has been unusual so far for Gardner compared to other seasons is he has excepted more power.  Which has of course led to his other #‘s being higher.  If a super-fast CF with an OPS

I’m available for cold hard cash, hell, both of my grandmothers are as well.

drat!  to finish: with an OPS around .850 in AAA doesn’t deserve a look in the big-leagues, then I don’t see much point in having a farm-system.

CAIRO says Weaver would put up a 5.77 ERA as a Yankee.  Wells, 5.88.  Both are probably better than Igawa.

I’m available for cold hard cash, hell, both of my grandmothers are as well.

Now, now.  Let’s keep this pg-rated.

Now, now.  Let’s keep this pg-rated.

I actually prefer warm slightly damp cash.

Hey YM—what’s your assessment of the Yankees farm system, as and Ag School graduate?

HAHAHA!  Farm!  Ag school!

I actually spent a year in Ag myself.  I kid because I love.

I wouldn’t trade for Sabathia to “save this season” but I would consider trading for Sabathia if it allowed us to get him for cheaper when both money and prospects are considered.  I doubt that will be possible. 

As far as Hughes, the Hughes bulls are properly considering his minor-league track-record while over-emphasizing the small-sample in 2007 to label him major-league average.  To my eye while his curve is very impressive his fastball is not, nor is his poise/command SO FAR.  Also, he is Prior-esque in his propensity to get hurt (I know, not his arm but still).  I think his value is well down from Fall 2007 in the eyes of most GM’s, as is IPK’s…as is CC’s for that matter.

If a super-fast CF with an OPS with an OPS around .850 in AAA doesn’t deserve a look in the big-leagues, then I don’t see much point in having a farm-system.

But this is (IIRC, can’t look right now) the first time, or at most the second time, in his entire professional career he’s posted an OPS that high. I don’t know about bringing a guy up to start with this small of a sample of success with such a high K rate (I get that he works deep counts, that doesn’t mean it’s not troubling) and such low power potential. And he’s 24, so it’s not like he’s young for the level or anything.

Just a note, Sabbathia is from California, so he might prefer to play on the west coast.

Farnsworth has been Farnsworth…

To the tune of a 4.02 ERA.  He blows up sometimes, but he has some really good moments, too.  He deserves some credit for the success of the bullpen.

If they weren’t willing to make a deal for Santana, then what has changed which would make them want to deal for Sabathia?

Not much, in my opinion.  Unless Cleveland is willing to take a surprisingly sweet deal, I think the Yankees seem pretty committed to sticking with their young assets.  Especially if the asset we’re talking about is Hughes.  If you wouldn’t trade Hughes for Santana, I don’t see how you trade him now for Sabathia, unless you’re willing to admit that what we’ve seen the first three months of the season is Hughes’ true ability level, in which case you’re admitting you horribly overrated him in the off-season.

Am I the only one hitting refresh on Abraham’s blog every 10 minutes?  Please tell me I’m not the only one!

Hughes cannot be traded as he is injured. And who knows when Mr. Breakable will be healthy.

Anyone agitating trading Cano is nuts. No offense intended. cool smirk

But this is (IIRC, can’t look right now) the first time, or at most the second time, in his entire professional career he’s posted an OPS that high

Depends on how you count it.  It’s true he’s never had a FULL season with an OPS above .800, but in 2006 he had an .851 in A+ before being promoted, last year he had an .811 before being promoted, and this year so far an .848.  Here are the numbers.  Add in his SB ability, and I think he could approach average for a CF.

As for the K-rate…for his career he strikes out once every 5.94 PA, so that is 101/600PA.  A little high for a non-power hitter, but not horrible, and he does walk a lot. 

And again, I don’t *know* if he’s going to be starting-quality.  He may indeed be no better than a 4th OF, though I think he would be one of the better ones if that’s what he ends up being.  However, given that Melky has struggled this year, if the cost to get a quality starter - say Bedard instead of Sabathia - is Melky + some B-level prospects, I’d be comfortable giving Gardner a try at it.  If Gardner can put up a .700 OPS with slightly worse D but better baserunning, he’ll probably be Melky’s equal this year.

As for the K-rate…for his career he strikes out once every 5.94 PA, so that is 101/600PA.  A little high for a non-power hitter, but not horrible, and he does walk a lot. 

You want to focus on K/AB.

Liz frank fracture - FUCK

Liz frank fracture - FUCK

Guh.  Source?

What does that mean?

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MLB.com - Bauman: Yankees appear stronger
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TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
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