Better defense = pitchers who seem/are better. I’m sure Shields, Kazmir, Jackson and Garza got better, but having stud defenders basically everywhere has gotten them way better.

Also, take a look at the OPS+ column on their BR page. Everyone is over 100 except Bartlett, Longoria leads the pack with a 138, and then basically everyone else is in the 110-120 range. Defense, pitching, consistent offense and speed on the bases. Yikes.

Better defense = pitchers who seem/are better.

That can work both ways.  Better pitching can make the defense seem better too.  If the pitchers are allowing fewer line drives and/or more easily fieldable grounders and flies it will make for what looks like better defense.

Bartlett is on the DL, and Zobrist is nursing a sore shoulder.  The SS defense will suffer a bit, at least until the break.

Did left-field get better between years?  How much of that is attributable to Damon playing over Matsui?  Maybe a run better for league average?

Looks like a little of both is happening, I think:

Player ERA FIP

Kazimr / 2.63 / 3.16
Sonnanstine / 4.31 / 3.23
Shields / 3.64 / 3.88
Garza / 3.51 / 4.01
Jackson / 4.08 / 4.38
Hammel / 4.88 / 4.73

So the defense has helped Kazmir, Shields, Jackson and Hammel, but not so much for Garza and Sonnastine (3.23!). Kazmir shoud have a worse ERA, but it looks like Garza and Sonnanstine should be much better - which makes my yikes a double yikes. Also, Shields has a low LD% (15.5%) but the rest of these guys are all right around 20% with to me is about league average.

The starting pitching has always been legit. I think the offense will come down to earth a bit. Is Navarro really this good? Seems like Longoria will have his rookie slump as some point. I hope so at leasst.

Carl Crawford has a disappointing OPS+ of 100.

Isn’t defense the new area where sabremetric/moneyball teams are trying to gain an edge over the competition?  It seems like it’s working in Tampa (along with good old-fashioned player development).

Did left-field get better between years?

It could just be random fluctuation, but AL LF zone rating is actually lower this year.  AL Average zone rating in LF last year was .862.  This year it’s .849.  Crawford’s ZR was .934 in 2007, this year’s he’s at .918, which is down for him.

How much of that is attributable to Damon playing over Matsui?  Maybe a run better for league average?

Last year, AL LF saw around 5100 chances.  The average LF would see 350 or so chances over a full season.  So if we say Matsui was a -15 fielder and Damon is say a +5 fielder, that would be a 20 run improvement in ‘average’ over a full season.  Divide that among the 14 AL teams and yeah, in theory that would be a little more than a run a game better.

Probably not reality right now since Matsui’s played enough D to cancel out Damon and more.

Isn’t defense the new area where sabremetric/moneyball teams are trying to gain an edge over the competition?  It seems like it’s working in Tampa (along with good old-fashioned player development).

Well, I think you’re also seeing the benefit of a young team.  Defense peaks in the early 20s for the most part, followed by a long steady decline after 25 at most positions for most players.  There’s a reason the Yankeed defense hasn’t been very good recently, and it has a lot to do with the ages of most of their key players.  It’s not surprising that Melky and Cano are the two best defenders on the team right now, they’re also the only guys under 30.

In my opinion, saber-metric analysis also undervalues stolen bases.  I’ve never understood why someone doesn’t design a metric whereby every stolen base minus each time caught stealing is added to produce a revised slugging percentage of sorts.  I realize a slap single is not the same as a double in the gap if a man is on first.  However, if the bases are empty and a Gardner-Ellsbury-Gathright type walks or gets a hit and then winds up on third shortly thereafter, that isn’t really reflected by any sort of metric that I’ve seen.  All I read is that such players have no value because they slug around .380 in Ellsbury’s case, for example.

IE, It depends what analysis you use.  Linear weights credits SB and CS, and I think B Pro’s EQA and VORP do as well.  OPS doesn’t, but I don’t necessarily think it should.

I’ve never understood why someone doesn’t design a metric whereby every stolen base minus each time caught stealing is added to produce a revised slugging percentage of sorts.

Well, for starters, that would seriously over-value a stolen base.  For starters, revising slugging in this way would give the impression that player A’s SBs could somehow magically help player B advance additional bases.  Part of the value of an XBH is in moving runners who are already on base; a single and a stolen base doesn’t do what a double does in that sense.  More importantly, you’d better revise OBP for each time caught stealing.  They do cost you an out and a baserunner, after all.

I’ve never understood why someone doesn’t design a metric whereby every stolen base minus each time caught stealing is added to produce a revised slugging percentage of sorts.

One of the guys at hardballtimes a few years ago, his metric was SB-(2*CS), to get bases gained.  I don’t recall if he then converted that to runs.  So his contention (basically) was that anything over a 67% success rate was a positive, but of course a player that did 20/22 (+16) contributed more than a player that did 40/60 (+/-0).  Not sure how well that correlates to other metrics…

AL LF zone rating is actually lower this year.

I might be looking at this screwy, if the ZR is higher in 2008, but the plays saved is lower, doesn’t that mean that the average must be higher in 2008?

TB   LF     .907     .913     16     14     13     12     -2

I might be looking at this screwy, if the ZR is higher in 2008, but the plays saved is lower, doesn’t that mean that the average must be higher in 2008?

Oh, you’re comparing a full year to a half year.  2008 is YTD, not pro-rated.  So Crawford is worse than he was last year when compared to himself, but he is more betterer than the league average this year since LF ZR is down.  So if trends hold, he will end 2008 with a higher RSAA relative to league, even if he’s lower than his 2007.

Okay, yeah, I’m dumb.  But isn’t the ZR still higher for TB LF in 2008 than 2007?  Isn’t he doing better than last year?

Actually, the difference is in the bench guys.  They are better than last year’s bench, which is why the team’s LF ZR is higher this year.  Crawford himself is down slightly, although still really good.

Ah, okay.  That makes sense.  Thanks for clearing that up for me.

How much of last year’s -9 at 1B is attributable to the gold glove caliber defense of Carlos Pena?

How much of last year’s -9 at 1B is attributable to the gold glove caliber defense of Carlos Pena?
Pena, Carlos -7 RSAA
Wigginton, Ty -2 RSAA

But Cashman was still a fool for letting such a clearly good player go.