Thursday, June 28, 2007
A Little Exercise about Reliever Utilization (plus Playoff Odds through June 27)
One of my favorite sabermetric researchers, Tango Tiger, has done a lot of research about reliever usage. He came up with the statistic Leverage Index, which uses win expectancy to determine the most crucial situations in a given game.Let's look at two situations in particular.
Situation 1: Two teams, we'll call them NYY and BAL are playing in BAL. They are tied heading into the bottom of the ninth. In this situation, the win expectancy for the visiting team (NYY) is
Situation 2: The same two teams are playing again, but this time BAL is leading NYY 4-0 heading into the bottom of the eighth. In that situation, the win expectancy for NYY is .027.
So in situation 1, NYY had a 36.6% chance of winning the game, and in situation 2, NYY had a 2.7% chance of winning the game. In that spot, preventing the winning run is the most important thing that NYY could do. So which situation should their best reliever have been used in?
But what if your best reliever had thrown 20 pitches over 1.2 innings in a game four days prior? Well in that case, you could use arguably your second best reliever, since he had only thrown 22 pitches in that same game, plus 40 pitches in the next game. You could even watch while he walks three batters, including one with the bases loaded to lose the game.
Anyway, the Yankees' recent skid has had a dramatic effect on their already fading playoff chances. When I ran my playoff odds exercise on June 18, the Yankees had a 9.3% chance at the division, and a 59.7% chance at the wild card. And after going 1-7 in their last eight games, here's where they are now after simulating the rest of the season 1000 times using projections weighted 80% on 2007 projections coming into the season and 20% on current performance.
| American League | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | DIV% | WC% | PO% | High | Low |
| East | W | W | |||||||||
| Bos07 | 101.2 | 60.8 | 888 | 701 | 977.5 | 17.0 | 97.8% | 1.7% | 99.5% | 113 | 90 |
| NYA07 | 88.3 | 73.7 | 847 | 706 | 22.5 | 336.0 | 2.3% | 33.6% | 35.9% | 102 | 76 |
| Tor07 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 802 | 782 | 0.0 | 45.5 | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 95 | 69 |
| Bal07 | 71.7 | 90.3 | 755 | 821 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 86 | 59 |
| Tam07 | 67.2 | 94.8 | 787 | 960 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 82 | 55 |
| Central | |||||||||||
| Cle07 | 92.8 | 69.2 | 883 | 761 | 592.0 | 162.0 | 59.2% | 16.2% | 75.4% | 107 | 76 |
| Det07 | 90.9 | 71.1 | 902 | 777 | 363.0 | 220.0 | 36.3% | 22.0% | 58.3% | 105 | 78 |
| Min07 | 83.7 | 78.3 | 782 | 748 | 45.0 | 75.5 | 4.5% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 97 | 71 |
| ChA07 | 72.7 | 89.3 | 740 | 838 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 86 | 61 |
| KC07 | 66.2 | 95.8 | 746 | 889 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 77 | 52 |
| West | |||||||||||
| LAA07 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 805 | 711 | 868.5 | 25.0 | 86.9% | 2.5% | 89.4% | 104 | 76 |
| Sea07 | 83.8 | 78.2 | 793 | 803 | 71.0 | 71.5 | 7.1% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 97 | 72 |
| Oak07 | 82.8 | 79.2 | 738 | 705 | 60.5 | 47.5 | 6.1% | 4.8% | 10.8% | 96 | 65 |
| Tex07 | 70.0 | 92.0 | 825 | 908 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 84 | 55 |
So they've gone from an already meager 9.3% shot at the AL East to an even more scant 2.3%. More concerning is their wild card chances have plummeted, from 59.7% to 33.6%. I guess it still means they have a chance.
Peter Abraham reported yesterday that the Angels will be DFA'ing Shea Hillenbrand by Friday and that he could be a Yankee by the weekend. Hillenbrand might be better than Cairo, but he won't be a difference-maker, and he'll be awfully tough for me to root for. I'd rather not see him in pinstripes.
And what happened to the pledge to get Andy Phillips some playing time? Phillips was called up on June 19, and in the 8 games since he's gotten one start and 8 AB. Meanwhile, Miguel Cairo has started six games and hit .238/.304/.286. I have no expectations for Phillips, but odds are he cannot be any worse than Cairo has been, and he'd be a hell of a lot easier to root for than someone like Hillenbrand.
Comments
Hillenbrand sucks and i really, really hate him.
but Torre is not going to play Phillips. he wouldn’t play Phelps.
Hillenbrand is better than Cairo.
that’s about all i can say about him.
if the Yankees pay more than 10% of his salary i’ll be pissed. but if the Angels are footing the bill and take a D prospect, why not?
can it get any worse?
oh, and i won’t even comment on using Rivera last night down 4-0 b/c surely we are jsut being PUNK’D by Torre, right? Ashton Kucher is going to rip off his Torre mask tonight and reveal the practical joke, right? surely no one could be this bad of a tactician.
I nominate the Ghost of Billy Martin for Yankees Manager
Cairo - 1B
Can someone explain that to me? Every sports fan has issues with the way his favorite team is managed from time to time. The thing I like about this blog is that there are enough level headed people who post here that eventually someone comes up with a sensible explanation for why the Yankees do what they do. At least when things make sense, following a losing team is a little less frustrating. But so far I haven’t seen one reasonable explanation for Cairo -1B. The defensive metrics for Cairo suffer from small sample size, but based on watching the games I’d say he and Phillips are about even. Cairo doesn’t have great speed, so that’s not it. Maybe he can “handle the bat”, but that’s really only a plus when you have a few speedy guys who are on base all the time in front of you. If you are batting behind low OBP hitters or guys mired in 4 for 30 slumps, the ability to pop one now and then would seem to have a lot more value. I really don’t get it.
Not that it would have helped much last night. Losing to Bedard certainly
won’t be considered the low point of the season. It just underscores how important the previous night’s game was. A game in which Torre refused to use his best lineup and best reliever. The result - another one run loss. And as I predicted, Rivera worked the 8th inning, down by 4 runs (I had guessed 5 yesterday) because “he needed the work.”
I actually took a look at Rivera’s game log- and he’s been put in the ninth or later on the road in a tie game just twice in the past three seasons, and only five times in his career. The Yankees have had countless more times where they were tied on the road in the ninth or later.
But its not all that different from other closers and managers. Mike Hargrove has managed seven different closers over the past ten seasons and has used jhis closer in the ninth, on the road, in a tie game, just twice. Trevor Hoffman has only been used this way three times this century. So when criticizing Torre it’s important to note what the “average” manager does, just as if you were looking at VORP or FRAA.
In this situation, the win expectancy for the visiting team (NYY) is exactly .5. So they are even money to win the game.
SG, just for arguments sake (and because it takes my mind off the obvious disappointment thus far), wouldn’t also somehow depend on a few other things, such as who each team has coming up in the 9th, which relievers are “available” to pitch the 9th, etc. It’s probably the difference between .5 and .48 or something, but still. I’d think if we had Jeter-ARod-Posada coming up, and they had ... whoever is on that team besides Roberts/Markakis/Tejada/Huff, you could figure we had a slightly better shot. Same thing with Rivera vice whoever is in their pen.
Here’s what I’d like to see happen:
DH Damon
SS Jeter
RF Abreu
3B ARod
C Posada
LF Matsui
2B Cano
CF Cabrera
1B Phillips
And stick with that line up, a few permutations aside (like when Nieves plays and Po DH’s maybe Melky leads off.) It’s obvious shaking the line up isn’t working. It’s obvious there is no savior on the bench. Run these guys out there (unless they’re hurt) and just see what happens. Remove the element of “where will I hit tomorrow?” out of it. Do it against LHP and RHP.
Also, what is the deal with Milton Bradley? At worst, he would be a defensive upgrade over Abreu, who I’m guessing is probably our worst defensive outfielder right now.
just for arguments sake (and because it takes my mind off the obvious disappointment thus far), wouldn’t also somehow depend on a few other things, such as who each team has coming up in the 9th, which relievers are “available” to pitch the 9th, etc.
Right. Win expectancy assumes average everything, and that’s really one of the reasons I don’t like it as a measure of value in MVP races. However, it’s a good gauge of the general odds of a team’s chances at winning or losing at any point in time, it just regresses everything to average.
But so far I haven’t seen one reasonable explanation for Cairo -1B.
What’s even more frustrating about this is that the argument about Andy Phillips and whether or not he can be a contributing 1B to a big league club is still open for debate (although the odds are heavily stacked against Andy.) The guy is the classic AAAA player. He had a solid AAA season before being called up. We know he can handle the glove at 1B at least as well as Cairo. So why not run him out there and see what you have? Give him 400 at bats. If he’s a bust, well, then we know for sure and next year (which has to be what Cashman is thinking about at least half the time these days) you know whether or not he is or isn’t in the picture.
Phillips had a weird season with the Yanks last year. He mashed for about 2 weeks in June and then fell flat on his face after the scouting report on him made it around the league. While in his adjustment period, Aaron Guiel got on Torre’s good side somehow and the Yankees dealt Shawn Chacon for Craig Wilson - Phillips ended on the bench and basically stayed there for the rest of the season. I say give him a chance to finish that adjustment period. I’d be willing to bet Andy Phillips ends up being Doug Mientkiewicz with a right handed bat for a third of the price and none of the injury history.
Phillips is being set up to fail. If he does get playing time now, it will be after having been stuck on the bench for a week. Of course he’s going to have problems with his timing and likely his swing. He’s also likely to feel more pressure when he does play, knowing that if he does not do well he won’t play for another week.
If Torre was fired today and Girardi was hired, how many people would be happy?
I think I would. This team needs a fire lit under it’s ass.
But its not all that different from other closers and managers. Mike Hargrove has managed seven different closers over the past ten seasons and has used jhis closer in the ninth, on the road, in a tie game, just twice. Trevor Hoffman has only been used this way three times this century. So when criticizing Torre it’s important to note what the “average” manager does, just as if you were looking at VORP or FRAA.
look at yesterday’s box score from Boston/Seattle.
Francona >>> Torre, and it’s not particularly close.
Torre has really been pissing me off lately. The bullpen useage and Cairo - 1B…
I mean, here I was watching the Red Sox play Seattle (my wife’s a Sox fan). Tie ballgame, 9th inning, at Safeco. Okajima struggles, and it’s 1st & 3rd with one out. And whaddya know, Francona comes out, removes Okajima, and puts in Papelbon. Who then proceeds to get out of the inning, thus giving his team a chance to win it. He also, IIRC, pitched a scoreless 10th, but the Sox lost in the 11th (Pinata, I thank thee).
That really, really, really pissed me off.
And yeah, wtf is up with dumping Phelps, calling up Phillips, and… playing Cairo?? Bueller? Bueller?
I think I would. This team needs a fire lit under it’s ass.
Brining in Hillenbrand would do that. But not it a good way.
At this point, the most important thing for this team is to do well enough that the players who have the option of coming back next year, Rodriguez,Rivera, Posada and Petitte(have I missed anyone), will want to. Adding a clubhouse cancer to the mix isn’t going to help.
“If Torre was fired today and Girardi was hired, how many people would be happy?”
Normally, I am against in season firing, but this whole Cairo at first thing is gross incompentency. He’s doing a job, and he’s doing it very, very poorly. He needs to be fired.
I do not want Shea Hillenbrand on this team.
FWIW - the Sox went into the 9th yesterday in Seattle in a tie game. Francona went to his 2nd best reliever - granted a guy with an ERA under 1.00 - so hard to argue with that. He proceded to record 1 out and give up 2 hits. Bucking conventional (Torre) wisdom, TF then went to his closer who got out of the jam and went on to pitch another inning, in effect buying 6 more outs for his team to try to push across a run.It didn’t work out, as the Sox still lost (ok maybe it did work out!) but apparently there are some managers who seem to have figured this out. The situations aren’t exactly the same since I don’t know when any of those guys pitched last, and they do have a day off today, but trusting those “no margin for error” situations to anyone less than your best just doesn’t make sense in most cases.
Couldn’t agree more with you, SG, about Shea Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand barely hit the tarmac in Arizona before criticizing the Red Sox for their “lack of heart” and unwillingness to do what it took to win—the team which, at the time, had Nomar, Varitek, Manny, Pedro, and so on. Not exactly a “losing” team. Then he wears out his welcome in Arizona, heads to Toronto, and within a couple of years is fighting his manager and writing diagrams of losing on clubhouse blackboards. He’s better than Cairo, but bringing him to a sub-.500 team is a recipe for disaster, not recovery.
As for Francona, although he has his own managerial flaws, I agree that he did the right thing yesterday, and if it weren’t for the inept offense and Joel Pinata the Sox could have avoided being swept (please, someone, lock down Safeco Field so the Red Sox never have to go there again…they can seriously not play in that park). What’s most amazing about this season is that the Sox can go through their usual swoon at Safeco and not freak out that they’re losing ground to the Yankees…because somehow the Yankees are not beating the Orioles.
What a weird season.
Guess I was a little slow on the Seattle/Sox recap…..
yeah, unless that clubhouse cancer happens to be a really good player, like sheffield.
My biggest question is why miguel cairo wouldn’t go to Torre and say “I’m hurting this team playing everyday.” Isn’t he supposed to be a team guy? I hate him and I don’t want to go to see any of the remaining games I have tickets for.
I criticized Cashman early this year when I asked here what the hell he is doing on the team, and everyone was like “He’s only going to get 50 AB’s, chill out.” Well, Cashman could have fixed this by not signing him to begin with and getting some other utility guy. Cairo is old and not very good. My guess is no team would even pick him up.
If you have a player that is relatively established, and he couldn’t get signed by any other team do not pay him more than league min. to play for the Yankees. I’m looking at you too, Womack and Lofton.
The more I think about it, the more Cashman and Torre need to GTFO.
Sheffield isn’t a clubhouse cancer; most reports say that fellow players actually like Sheffield. Hillenbrand, on the other hand, ranks slightly above Randy Johnson on players’ likeability lists.
Phillips is being set up to fail. If he does get playing time now, it will be after having been stuck on the bench for a week. Of course he’s going to have problems with his timing and likely his swing. He’s also likely to feel more pressure when he does play, knowing that if he does not do well he won’t play for another week.
this is a classic torre-ism. see Phelps, Josh. also Felix Rodriguez, Bubba Trammel, Buddy Groom, Kenny Lofton, David Delucci, etc.
not saying these guys were great players, but they were never used, so when they DID play, their performance was far below their established career levels and they got buried again.
Also, is it really a player’s job to go ask his manager to be benched? Who is this, Kerry Collins?
But its not all that different from other closers and managers. Mike Hargrove has managed seven different closers over the past ten seasons and has used jhis closer in the ninth, on the road, in a tie game, just twice. Trevor Hoffman has only been used this way three times this century. So when criticizing Torre it’s important to note what the “average” manager does, just as if you were looking at VORP or FRAA.
mehmattski, while I do agree that you have to take that into account and it is a custom to play for the save stat nowadays, Torre gave the reason for not using Rivera was that he pitched on Friday, not because it was a tie game on the road. That is inexcusable.
m242, I think criticizing Cairo is misguided. As a utility infielder, he’s fine. It’s not his fault he’s being put in a role he is not equipped for, and it’s really not Brian Cashman’s fault, as he as provided Joe Torre with alternatives in Josh Phelps and now Andy Phillips.
And it’s fine to say they could have gotten “some other utility guy”, but look at who was available this offseason and tell me who was a better choice than Cairo. The only two choices that were probably better were Rich Aurilia, who wanted a full-time role and would have cost them a first round draft pick, and maybe Mark Loretta, who preferred the offer Houston gave him, and who probably can’t play SS or 3B either.
My biggest question is why miguel cairo wouldn’t go to Torre and say “I’m hurting this team playing everyday.” Isn’t he supposed to be a team guy? I hate him and I don’t want to go to see any of the remaining games I have tickets for.
this is kindof a ridiculous comment.
But their bench has been a disaster, SG, don’t you think?
If you have a player that is relatively established, and he couldn’t get signed by any other team do not pay him more than league min. to play for the Yankees. I’m looking at you too, Womack and Lofton.
i’m not sure what universe you live in that Kenny Lofton shares anything in common with Tony Womack and Miguel Cairo.
Lofton is a good to very good player who SHOULD have been the everyday CFer in 2004. that’s what he was signed to do and Bernie was supposed to DH.
but Torre just kept playing Bernie in CF.
Cairo signed for like $750K. that is pretty much the league minimum for a veteran.
It really is very frustrating that Torre thinks he can play Cairo everyday at a major offensive position and that it won’t be detrimental to the team. Cairo is a good defensive player. But that’s it. He should not be starting games at first base for any team in the Major Leagues, let alone the New York Yankees.
If someone doesn’t explain to Torre that he really is handcuffing his team offensively with this move every night, there is no chance at the wild card.
That being said, I fully expect Cairo to be starting at first tonight.
...and Cutter will blow himself up.
But their bench has been a disaster, SG, don’t you think?
yes, b/c their 4th OFer is starting in CF and their utility IFer is starting at 1B. plus Phelps ran over Torre’s dog.
Nieves is horrible, but i thought a bench with Melky, Cairo, and Phelps was ok.
Fair enough. The Sox have Hinske, Cora, Willy Mo, and Mirabelli…not tremendous either, but not terrible.
What’s really mind boggling is why did Torre pinch hit for Cairo last night with Phillips. Was it a matchup with a certain reliever? Was he looking for a homerun, down 4-0? Does he admit Andy is a better hitter but just not good defensively so he starts Cairo instead? Does he still think that’s Phelps, not Phillips on the bench?
But their bench has been a disaster, SG, don’t you think?
What yup said.
Bench wasn’t great coming into the year, but Phelps looked like a potentially useful bat who maybe didn’t get a fair shake. With Cano/Rodriguez/Jeter, there was little need for a good utility IF, and with Melky as the 4th OF they seemed set there. Backup C continues to be a sore spot for this team, and has been since Posada was a backup. Carrying 12 pitchers, which I will admit has been a necessity this year, also limits the ability to build a strong bench.
I live in the universe where I don’t want to go see my favorite team play baseball because they make ridiculous moves that can’t be justified. I hate this I’m the GM, he’s the manager bullshit. Replace them with computers or let the bat boy fill out a lineup card. They are not giving themselves (or me) a chance of watching a winning team.
I’m seriously pissed off.
“Torre gave the reason for not using Rivera was that he pitched on Friday, not because it was a tie game on the road. That is inexcusable.”
Agreed- he is managing a web of hypocrisy lately. If you’re managing to one kind of philosophy, fine, that is who you are as a manager. But if you’re going to mix and match strategies, it doesn’t work out. Like in the top of the ninth in that same game- bunting with Cano (1 Sac Bunt in last two years) to move over Posada (slowest regular on the team). If you’re going to play for one run and the win, then for god’s sake pinch run Basak and go with Nieves in the bottom of the ninth. But if you’re not making a move because you expect the game to go long and you want Posada behind the plate… then don’t bunt.
My point was that the whole ninth inning on the road thing is bad- the way Torre, (and Hargrove, among others) use their closers is illogical. But compared to the in-game tactics of other managers, he is average in this respect, and his failures in other areas are more cause for concern.
My point was that the whole ninth inning on the road thing is bad- the way Torre, (and Hargrove, among others) use their closers is illogical.
In a normal season where the Yankees were not in desperation mode, I’d agree with you, but I think at this point in the season, pissing away your best chance to win a much needed game due to either faulty logic or a horseshit excuse is not something we can excuse it with the “everyone else would have done it” line. Especially when we saw Francona do the exact opposite yesterday.
BTW, Shea Hillenbrand’s updated projection if we use 80% of his projection coming into the season and 20% of his play YTD is .272/.307/.397. I guess that’s better than Cairo, but it’s close enough that I’d bet his crappy defense makes them just about equal.
But compared to the in-game tactics of other managers, he is average in this respect, and his failures in other areas are more cause for concern.
i think he is way below average this season.
remember in April when he was pulling Giambi for a pinch runner in like the 7th inning of every game?
he’s been awful all year.
No to Hillenbrand. If that’s what the team “needs” then wtf was up with dumping Phelps???
Arrrrrrrggggg!
“remember in April when he was pulling Giambi for a pinch runner in like the 7th inning of every game?”
Ok, now, to be fair to Torre, it’s entirely possible he was trying to prevent what ultimately occurred: Giambi going on the DL. I was annoyed by it at the time, but looking back I’m willing to cut him some slack about it.
“Situation 1: Two teams, we’ll call them NYY and BAL are playing in BAL. They are tied heading into the bottom of the ninth. In this situation, the win expectancy for the visiting team (NYY) is exactly .5. So they are even money to win the game.”
Is this correct? Shouldnt the road team be less than even money to win a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, since the home team is going to have one more turn at bat for the rest of the game?
Is this correct? Shouldnt the road team be less than even money to win a tie game in the bottom of the 9th, since the home team is going to have one more turn at bat for the rest of the game?
Doh. You’re right. .5 is for a tie score entering the top of the ninth. Entering the bottom of the ninth, it’s .634 for the home team (or .366 for the visitors). I’ll correct that.
I see someone asked a bit earlier how many people would be happy if Torre was fired and replaced by Girardi today… I’m here to tell you that I think it’s the right move. Torre was great for the organization but he’s not the right guy to properly motivate this current batch of players, period.
FWIW- Girardi last year inserted his closer, Joe Borowski, into the ninth inning in a tie game on the road- zero times. Twice he did it in the bottom of the tenth after using a different pitcher in a tie game in the ninth. I count four times last season when the Marlins were tied going into the bottom of the ninth on the road, and in NONE of those games did Borowski pitch.
So, once again, Torre isn’t exactly doing something no one else does. In fact in my research only Larry Deirker has ever shown a consistent willingness to put his closer (Billy Wagner) into a tie game in the ninth on the road.
So, once again, Torre isn’t exactly doing something no one else does. In fact in my research only Larry Deirker has ever shown a consistent willingness to put his closer (Billy Wagner) into a tie game in the ninth on the road.
i agree. many managers do this.
however, Torre’s reasoning was not that he was saving Mo to close out if they got a lead. he specifically said he didn’t want to use him because Mo pitched 1 2/3 innings on Friday. 3 days earlier. when he threw 20 pitches. for his only appearance in 9 days. so he used the guy that threw 22 pitches on Friday and 40 on Saturday.
sorry, that’s indefensible.
let’s change topics, i want to poll the board here. i am not trying to start a flame war about the merits of jeter’s defense.
i honestly want to know if people here think most shortstops would have gotten to the ball that the Orioles scored their first run on.
i think they do. jeter looked like he was running in quicksand on that play.
as an example, the same play happened in SF in the 13th inning, right before the bloop single and Cairo fielded the ball behind the bag but he couldn’t put anything on the throw.
mehmattski-
How many of those times had the closer not pitched in a week? Rivera has mold growing on the cobwebs that were growing on the rust that was growing on the splinters in his ass that he got in April. Torre is obviously not subscribing to any revolutionary ideas (like using your closer for the three most important outs, like say when the starter gets you in a jam with an out in the 7th), but he’s obviously managing to some predetermined “7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, 9th inning guy” formula.
Let’s see if we can list what a manager needs to do. I could be way off:
1) Manage the game to give your team the best chance to win (sac bunts, pinch runners, positioning defenders, etc.) Torre has failed miserably at this in virtually all respects, with the exception of, IMO and despite the comments of the traditional talking heads, the “throw day” relievers when the bullpen is really hurting.
2) Managing personalities in the clubhouse to get your team to play to their potential? We have arguably one of the most talented teams, and we suck. Part of it is due to injury (Giambi, Damon, Wang, Mussina), but the overwhelming majority is the underperformance of the talent - specifically Cano and Abreu, who have not been injured save Abreu’s oblique in February/March.
3) Putting the best team on the field? Anyone who can put logic to the Cairo/Phillips/Phelps saga shares the same level of senility as Torre. Rivera sits in the bullpen when he’s needed. Vizcaino is brought in during the most crucial games. Scott Proctor’s arm is going to fall off.
Some managers have some of these problems. Torre has all of them at the same time.
Sure, Clemens signed because of Torre, or so he says. Does that mean Clemens wouldn’t have signed if Torre wasn’t in the dugout? Would we have even sought after Clemens as much as we did if our outlook wasn’t as bleak?
I’m almost at the point where I wish they would start revamping for next year. Almost. Watch them win 15 in a row.
</frustrated>
“So, once again, Torre isn’t exactly doing something no one else does.”
But Mariano is 1. severely underused this season and 2. one of the most effective relievers in baseball history.
In other words, when Joe needs to limit Mariano’s innings the no-tie-game-on-road strategy makes some sense. And with Joe Borowski, the no-tie-game-on-road strategy makes some sense.
But we’re talking about a ship that’s going down while one of the team’s best assets molders away.
I am tired of this team’s roster being distorted because a manager with an under .500 career record stumbled on to a team that was ready to win in 1996 and is now thought of as a genius.
It’s time to turn the page on Torre.
I didn’t see the game last night, but Jeter’s range seems to have diminished this year. I feel like I’m seeing one or two grounders a night get through that he would have caught up to even as recently as last season.
Separately, and I realize this is old news and probably not worth the time, but shouldn’t Jeter be the leadoff hitter? Shouldn’t the first at bat of the game, especially when the team is struggling to score, be given to the guy hitting .340 who gets on base forty percent of the time?
i honestly want to know if people here think most shortstops would have gotten to the ball that the Orioles scored their first run on.
Jeter is not even on my screen on balls up the middle or slightly to the left of the bag.
Peter Abraham does a player interview every now and then and allows the readers to email him questions. He’s done Jeter and Giambi, and when he did Jeter, I emailed him a question about how much long does Jeter thing he’ll play SS? He rephrased it and tossed him a softball of course, but Jeters answer was somewhere along the lines of “one day I won’t be able to do it a SS anymore” and something else indicating that he didn’t think his lack of range at SS was an issue.
I love Jeter, but this is an issue. Torre will do with Jeter what he’s done with Bernie, and if Jeter is on the team, he’ll be playing SS when he’s 45. Unless we end up with a manager with some brains and balls.
</frustrated^2>
I didn’t see the game last night, but Jeter’s range seems to have diminished this year.
Zone Rating would agree. Through this morning, ZR says Jeter has made 18 fewer plays than average SS would have made over the same opportunities, equivalent to -13 runs through this point, and -30 runs over a full season.
Hey, “the how much longer will you play SS” was my question.
I’d love to chime in here, but, well, we have Julio Lugo. We’ll take Derek Jeter’s and his “I need to jump throw because I can’t get in front of a ball like most shortstops” stuff anytime, if you want Lugo. Really. You can even have Joel Pineiro as a throw-in for free.
Please?
“We’ll take Derek Jeter’s and his “I need to jump throw because I can’t get in front of a ball like most shortstops” stuff anytime, if you want Lugo.”
We don’t need Lugo, we have two guys in the starting lineup who are already capable of playing a better SS then Jeter (maybe three, I think Cano’s probably a better SS at this point). We need a manager who’s not senile.
The Yankees would be instantly better if they moved Jeter to 1B, ARod to SS and had Cairo play 3B while they found someone to eventually play there.
Derek Jeter’s and his “I need to jump throw because I can’t get in front of a ball like most shortstops”
Ha! What I’ve been wanting to say for so long! I feel liberated. And those ZR numbers are so depressing, but they totally align with what everyone (exclusing sportswriters) is seeing with their eyes.
Though I do agree that Jeter and his .418 OBP should be batting leadoff. Hell, I thought that even afer Damon was signed. It seems Torre is trying every other combination, but when it comes to his veterans and where he likes to bat him, he’s like Rain Man. Must bat Jeter 2nd. Must bat Jeter 2nd. Torre’s brain is about as agile as the Titanic.
I’d really love another manager to step in and start clearing out the cobwebs. This team needs an overhaul and Torre is simply incapable of doing that. It’s not his style.
I’d love a new manager come in a breathe some life into this team:
-give Shelley Duncan a shot at the 1B/DH slot. Forget Hillenbrand.
-bring up Edwar, Henn and Britton. DFA Villone and Farnsworth. Send Proctor to AAA to fix him. Vizcaino - attempt to trade him while his stock has temporarily risen.
-keep BP at six (Edwar, Henn, Britton, Myers, Bruney, Mo) and give them some stability and routine through clearly defined roles
-bench/trade Abreu and play Thompson.
While I think moving Jeter would be intriguing and ulitmately benefit the Yankees, it will not sit well with the Captain. Last thing this organization needs is more conflict beyond the Jeter/A-Rod rift. Not something you want a new manager in the Bronx to have to deal with at first.
“DFA Villone and Farnsworth.”
I wouldn’t DFA Farnsworth, pitch him in blowouts, he’ll get hot, and someone will want him in the next year. Someone always wants/thinks they can fix him.
“-bench/trade Abreu and play Thompson.”
I’d play Thompson more, sure, but I don’t think I would bench Abreu. I would DL Damon first. And there’s no evidence that KT is more then a 4th OFer as far as I know. Getting a rotation going seems far more reasonable to me.
“While I think moving Jeter would be intriguing and ulitmately benefit the Yankees, it will not sit well with the Captain.”
Evidence? He’s among the leaders in errors and if he is who he’s supposed to be (and I think he is), he’ll move if he’s asked. Especially if you sell him on first for the team this year, OF (which is way more glamourous IMO) next year. Maybe move Cairo to SS instead of A-rod if you’re really concerned about the riff. I don’t think there would be much of a difference wherever those two play.
“he’ll move if he’s asked”
Evidence? My recollection is that he just laughed at reporters who asked about him ceding SS to A-Rod back in the day, and surely someone has told him he’d help the team more in CF.
Hey, “the how much longer will you play SS” was my question.
You, me and about 100 others I think Rich
I think it’s more likely that Jeter will still be playing SS at 40. I can’t see him changing positions on his own.
Keep in mind, most of the mainstream sports media, or what passes for such, thinks that Jeter is an above average SS. The person who is assigned blame for getting him to move could be the recipient of fatuous derision. Any prospective manager knows that, and would probably seek to avoid it.
During the time that the A-Rod/Soriano trade was discussed, I had thought (however foolishly) that Jeter would voluntary change positions after a year because, as a team first player, he would realize that A-Rod’s presence at SS was in the team’s best interests.
Wrong.
If the Yankees can win tonight we might be able to pick things up and go on a little bit of a run here. Oakland has not been playing particularly well as of late.
I don’t think it’s fair to expect Jeter to be able to evaluate himself and his ability at shortstop, especially since he gets so much positive reinforcement that he is a good fielder from his undeserved Gold Gloves, the inaccurate plaudits from the media, and generally good scouting reports.
This is again a management problem, and one that got complicated by the Damon signing taking away CF and as an option and probably (apologies for delving into armchair psychoanlysis here) the fact that it was Alex Rodriguez that was brought in, and it’s likely that moving for him would be a tacit acknowledgement of the obvious that Jeter is an inferior player, something that most professional athletes’ egos would not accept. Look at Cal Ripken when he was asked to move for Manny Alexander. He resisted loudly.
Joe has never been a good in-game manager, and since Zim left, he has never had one sitting next to him to tell him what to do. His strength is “managing the players”, and he can still do that reasonably well, but someone Zim-like is needed.
Cairo will be the starting 1B until a trade can be worked out for Teix or Konerko. Even though Phillips is better than him at basically every single possible baseball activity there is to be good at.
Seriously, if I am Cashman I call Torre into my office and tell him to never, ever start Cairo at 1B again, period. The next time Cairo starts a game at 1B, I would cut him and thus take away Torre’s toy. I think the Yankees could handle the 0.1 windowngrade from Cairo to Basak.
“windowngrade” = “windowngrade”
Cowboy - if you DFA Farns, you can still work out a trade. I just don’t see how keeping him on the roster, even just to pitch in blowouts, helps the team. At this point, the Yankees need to start developing young pitchers and giving them auditions to see what they can do. Giving Farns innings only impedes this.
As for Jeter, he comes across to me as an ass. Yankees fans love him because he’s their kind of ass (to paraphrase a Die Hard II quote). That said, I think he’d tell Torre or another manager to shove it if asked to move. Jeter will move only when Jeter is ready to move.
Thompson provides a little better range and D in the OF. I don’t think he’ll do much at the plate, but if he can get to some of the balls Abreu can’t, then the pitchers will breathe a little easier.
I’d DH Abreu, but at this point, I think Damon, if healthy, is a better option at DH. In my dreams, Matsui would be the DH, we’d have some good corner OFs and Damon/Abreu would be a distant memory.
The rotation is coming soon: Hughes, Chamberlain (maybe) will joing Wang next year. Petitte and Clemens are up in the air. Maybe the former will follow the latter. Maybe Petitte will figure he’s too old to go through a rebuilding, as will Clemens. Besides Hughes and possibly Joba, you have Karstens on the mend and maybe a FA.
Rotation help is coming soon. Bigger problems are to be had in the OF and BP.
Look at Cal Ripken when he was asked to move for Manny Alexander. He resisted loudly.
he did, but the second time, he moved for Mike Bordick quite agreeably.
though Jeter wasn’t moving when a-rod came over, maybe now, 4 years later, he would be more open to it. after all, SURELY he won’t win the Gold Glove this year, will he? nah…i think the “secret” is out.
even with CF occupied, Jeter could play LF.
kindof depends. i could see Damon traded this winter.
“Keep in mind, most of the mainstream sports media, or what passes for such, thinks that Jeter is an above average SS.”
Seriously? How many times does it take saying “past a diving” before the facts set in? Surely the media has some vague awareness of the sabermetric community’s views on this.
How many times does it take saying “past a diving” before the facts set in?
i think you are overlooking the fact that “past a diving Jeter” implies that since Jeter dove and could not get to the ball that NO ONE was getting to that ball. that’s what “past a diving Jeter” means. it means “Jeter makes a great effort on a clear base hit”. and that is why defense is so hard to evaluate. truly some of those balls ARE legitimate base hits. but good luck convincing the non-believers.
“keep BP at six (Edwar, Henn, Britton, Myers, Bruney, Mo) and give them some stability and routine through clearly defined roles “
I think that’s part of Torre’s problem - the roles are too well defined. Mo pitches in save situations; Farnsworth in the 8th; Proctor the 7th; Bruney the 6th. Unless Farns worked the day before then everyone moves back an inning. It often doesn’t seem to matter what the matchups are.
After four years, how does anybody know how Alex will play SS? In 2006, when he was heavier, I’ll bet he was no upgrade. As for this year, who knows. As for next year, will Alex even be here?
Let’s be real for a moment. If Alex opts out of his contract, which will pay him what, $25 million next year, that means he expects a raise. Now the Yankees are only paying what, $18 million plus the luxury tax on that in 2007, around $23.5 million. So if he opts out, he wants a raise, so that would be $30 million per year. With all that salary on the Yankees, plus the luxury tax. What does that total per season for one player? Around $39 million, for one guy? Not sure about the percentage, but you get my drift. And then sign Posada and Mo and, naturally, Jeter will expect a salary adjustment upwards to be close to what Alex is getting.
So IMHO, if Alex opts out, he won’t be a Yankee in 2008 and Jeter will still be at SS.
It doesn’t necessarily have to be more money in 2008-2009, a good deal for him gets him more garunteed years (I really can’t spell that word to save my life). This gives the yankees a slight edge, because they can extend the contract, and still have the rangers pay part of the load.
With Bora$$ as his agent that is probably what it does mean, more money beginning in 2008. Although the final call is on Alex, that is why you hire such an agent, to get you more. On his current deal he is still owed plenty, so if he does opt out it will likely be for a big new deal. Only I wonder, who will ante up? So I still doubt he opts out.
After four years, how does anybody know how Alex will play SS? In 2006, when he was heavier, I’ll bet he was no upgrade.
i would agree. jeter was also better last year.
As for this year, who knows. As for next year, will Alex even be here?
i think there is a 50% chance that he is back next year. maybe less. 40%? as far as this year, it will never happen, so it’s a moot point. but i am positive A-Rod would be a significant upgrade at SS right now. A-Rod is playing an excellent 3B while Jeter has been the worst SS in the majors according to ZR.
Let’s be real for a moment. If Alex opts out of his contract, which will pay him what, $25 million next year, that means he expects a raise.
not necessarily. just more guaranteed years. or maybe just out of NY.
Jeter will expect a salary adjustment upwards to be close to what Alex is getting.
he can expect whatever he wants, he’s not going to just get a raise in the middle of a contract that he signed. has that ever happened before? jeter has 3 years left on his deal. he can take it up with the Yankees in 2010.
Tiro the Robot on his way to manage the Yankees? Some Yankee fans have demanded a robot manager and Tiro, fresh from presiding over a wedding in South Korea, may be available.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/06/17/robot-to-be-master-of-ceremonies-at-south-korean-wedding/
Sorry, I’m a little late to the discussion, but one point about Francona bringing in Papelbon yesterday: recall the Sox have Bill James on staff, who I believe is one of the authors of the notion that the key outs in a game aren’t always in the 9th. This creativity (and other realities) led the Sox to try to win in 2003 without a traditional closer, which blew up in their faces on opening day and almost every other day that year. The lesson is that there’s value in regularity in the bullpen—order of usage, expected situations, etc. Nobody liked not knowing their role. [also they were a mediocre lot, but whatever.] Still… the James line (if I’m attributing this accurately) has just enough life for situations like yesterday where Tito went to Paps in a non-save, but otherwise obviously critical, situation.
Also, I despise Shea Hillenbrand, but I’ve never shared a clubhouse with him. Good luck w/ that. And I’m sure some here will be warmed by the idea of a “Seattle Sox fan.” I can’t advocate for the closing of Safeco; my older son loves the Mariner Moose more than life itself. But from now on I’m only going to AL West games.
If Arod leaves, maybe Jeter moves to 3B. Any idea how his skill set would play there? Saying “Cal made that move” would make it easier on the ego. Although if Arod leaves it really doesn’t matter what kind of defense they get out of the SS. This team will REALLY suck.
he did, but the second time, he moved for Mike Bordick quite agreeably.
Right, that was SG’s point. Ripken wouldn’t move for Alexander, as it was an insult. Bordick, though, had a reputation as a great defensive infielder, so it wasn’t an insult to Ripken to be asked to move for him.
So Jeter wouldn’t want to move for an A-Rod, but he probably would have been willing had the Yankees acquired, say, Adam Everett. The Yankees would never TRY to acquire a player like Everett, but just saying that if they DID, I think Jeter could move without feeling insulted.
“if you DFA Farns, you can still work out a trade. I just don’t see how keeping him on the roster, even just to pitch in blowouts, helps the team. At this point, the Yankees need to start developing young pitchers and giving them auditions to see what they can do. Giving Farns innings only impedes this.”
With no leverage. Someone needs to pitch in blowouts and eat those innings and protect the younger arms or the ones that will be used in future from over use. Farnsworth is perfect for that.
“That said, I think he’d tell Torre or another manager to shove it if asked to move. Jeter will move only when Jeter is ready to move.”
You’re essentially assigning Jeter the greatest ego in SS history. Everyone moves off of SS. Ripken, Yount, Nomar, A-rod, Banks. There just aren’t many guys who play SS as late as Jeter has, and when he doesn’t win the Gold Glove this year (and he better not, if he does, all bets are off and it’s clearly a conspiracy to keep him there), the Yanks will have the perfect oppurtunity to move him. I haven’t seen anything that suggests Jeter will tell anyone to shove it if he is told to do something. He calls Torre “Mr. Torre”. He will do what he’s told, if not because he wants to, then because he is very well aware of his image and legacy. I won’t believe the guy won’t move until he actually tells the Yanks to go f themselves.
“Any idea how his skill set would play there?”
The claim at the time was that he has a slow first step and that would be esp. bad at third. Only way I was able to accept A-Rod not playing SS.
Sorry about my rants earlier:
This Jeter situation is screwed up both in batting order and defense.
Through his career, Jeter is both better in BA and OBP than Damon but, if you look at them as leadoff hitters, Jeter is even much better than this career line. Throw in the fact that he used to never get caught running (another thing he sucks at this year) he is a far better choice than gimpy damon.
Those stats are off the top of my head but totally true.
Further, DePodesta is an available GM. Let’s get him and let Bowa finish out the season as manager until we can figure out who else is available sending Torre and Cash their ways. They would be great in a market where no one cares about anything besides getting back on the “winning” track. Pittsburgh?
Do you really think any decision maker in Pittsburgh cares about getting back on the “winning” track?
You’re essentially assigning Jeter the greatest ego in SS history. Everyone moves off of SS. Ripken, Yount, Nomar, A-rod, Banks. There just aren’t many guys who play SS as late as Jeter has, and when he doesn’t win the Gold Glove this year (and he better not, if he does, all bets are off and it’s clearly a conspiracy to keep him there), the Yanks will have the perfect oppurtunity to move him. I haven’t seen anything that suggests Jeter will tell anyone to shove it if he is told to do something. He calls Torre “Mr. Torre”. He will do what he’s told, if not because he wants to, then because he is very well aware of his image and legacy. I won’t believe the guy won’t move until he actually tells the Yanks to go f themselves.
I’m assuming Torre joined Cashman and asked Jeter to move for A-Rod, and he said no.
Ripken analogy makes no sense. Ripken said no to Alexander, then said yes to Bordick because Bordick was a better defender.
A-Rod was one of the best fielding SS, better than Jeter, when he came to the Yanks. Jeter said no.
Ripken moved when he was in his late 30s. Yount moved in his middle thirties after a couple of injuries. Ditto with Banks. Jeter is in his early- to mid-30s and hasn’t suffered any injuries. He’s also less than a year past a Gold Glove. He’s not moving.
With no leverage.
The Yankees have no leverage anyway, no matter who they deal for, or deal away. The only leverage the Yankees have is pitting teams against each other.
With proper BP use, you don’t have to worry about abusing young arms in blowouts. Other managers do it just fine. It seems that only Torre has trouble in doling out proper roles and workloads for the bullpen.
i could see Damon traded this winter.
No one will take an aging OF with no power who can’t play the field. You can find a player with a comparable skill set for a tenth of Damon’s salary. He’s all ours.
“I’m assuming Torre joined Cashman and asked Jeter to move for A-Rod, and he said no.”
Yeah, but there’s no reason to believe that.
“Ripken moved when he was in his late 30s. Yount moved in his middle thirties after a couple of injuries. Ditto with Banks. “
Banks never played a game at SS after 30. Yount was done at short after 28. Ripken moved when he was 35.
I stand corrected on two. Depending on how old you are 35 is the late thirties. To me, it is. I also would hazard comparing those with Jeter. Ripken’s body was breaking down, as was Yount’s. Jeter’s been relatively healthy (knock on wood). I don’t know much about Banks, so I can’t comment on a guy long since retired.
I still don’t see any facts on the ground that would lead you to believe Jeter would move out of SS if asked. He was asked to move for one of the best SS in the game at the time, and declined.
Also, I don’t see anyone in the organization who can come in and field better than Jeter right now. I’m sure if the Yanks had a good hitting, good fielding SS waiting in the wings, and the Yanks made sure Jeter would be well compensated for moving, he’d probably do it. Absent that, I doubt he will. And moving Jeter for an all-field, no-hit SS will hurt the Yankees more than help them.
“He was asked to move for one of the best SS in the game at the time, and declined.”
That’s the thing, he wasn’t. Or at least, to my and your knowledge, he wasn’t. A-rod offered to move when the trade was being discussed. It may have never come up. Joe Torre may have said Jeter is my guy (which I think is WAY more likely). Cashman may have said, we think the D will be better with A-rod at 3rd and Jeter at SS (which was true in 04). I don’t understand how you can so confidently assume the guy who has one of the best reputations in the game is that arrogant.
I’m confident because he’s confident. He just won a gold glove, whether he deserved it or not. Why is he going to switch positions? I am assuming that he wants to be a Yankee for life and would love to go down as one of the best, if not the best, SS in Yankee history.
My question back to you is - what has he done that shows he’s less egotistical than any other superstar? What has he done to help the team in some selfless way?
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