Thursday, April 19, 2007
4/19/07 House Money Day - Cleveland Indians (9-5) at New York Yankees (7-6) - 1:05pm (Liveblog)
It’s House Money Day, and here are your lineups.
Cleveland
G. Sizemore cf
D. Dellucci lf
T. Hafner dh
V. Martinez c
R. Garko 1b
C. Blake 3b
J. Peralta ss
M. Rouse 2b
J. Michaels rf
F. Carmona p
NY Yankees
J. Damon cf
D. Jeter ss
B. Abreu rf
A. Rodriguez 3b
J. Giambi dh
R. Cano 2b
M. Cabrera lf
D. Mientkiewicz 1b
W. Nieves c
D. Rasner p
The Yankee offense is rolling, leading the majors in runs per game. Let’s see if they can keep it going today. Back in 10 minutes with the first pitch.i
Pre-game Michael Kay and Paul O’Neill are the announcers today.
I’m not really looking forward to watching Rasner vs. the Indians, but maybe he’ll surprise me.
Rasner’s pitched 9.2 innings on the year, and has allowed 13 hits, 2 BB, 2 HR, and 3 K. While his ERA of 4.66 is fine for a fill-in, the peripherals are not a good sign for long-term success.
Top of the first:He starts of Sizemore with a fastball away for strike 1. He goes to a full count then comes inside with a fastball, and Sizemore drops a double into the gap in right center.
Dellucci steps in. Jeff Karstens is in the dugout, getting ready to be activated in time to get shellacked on Saturday. Dellucci’s fouling off pitches, and Rasner’s pitch count is going to be about 50 by the time this inning is over. The Yankees need a good long outing from Rasner today so the pen will be in decent shape heading to Fenway.
After a full count, Dellucci lines one to Cano, who makes a little leaping catch and is able to double Sizemore off second. Nice.
Hafner now batting. He gets Hafner to ground out 4-3 to end the inning.
Bottom of the first: Fausto Carmona. Is this the clown that kept blowing saves against Boston last year?
Damon leads it off. Carmona looks like a hard thrower who suffers from some control issues. He’s sitting at 94, throwing nothing but fastballs so far. He falls behind Damon 3-0, throws two strikes, then walks him.
Jeter comes up with delusions of bunting on the brain, I’m sure. Carmona gets a first pitch fastball on the outside corner for a strike, which ends any chances of Jeter bunting. Carmona’s keeping an eye on Damon, having thrown over twice now. Jeter gets sawed off and chops to Peralta, who flips to second for one. Jeter is called safe on the relay to first, but it looks like he was out to me. I’ll take it.
Bobby Abreu comes to the plate and immediately takes ball one. High fastball misses for ball two. Fastball on the outside corner is a strike, then a breaking pitch away is ball three. Abreu can look for a pitch to drive here. He doesn’t drive it, but grounds one past first that almost hits Jeter, who would have been called out. Jeter was able to jump over it and get to second.
A-Rod up. Let’s see what he does here. He ends up striking out on a 94 mph fastball in on the hands after taking four pitches, two strikes, two balls.
Here comes Giambi. Let’s see if he can pull Carmona’s fastball. He does pull it, on the ground, but right into the heart of the shift, and gets thrown out. At least they made Carmona throw 25 pitches that inning…
Top of the second: Victor Martinez hits a weak grounder to A-Rod on the first pitch he sees to lead off the second, and gets thrown out 5-3.
Garko steps in, and takes an 88 mph fastball on the inside part of the plate for strike one. Rasner gets ahead but then plunks him on the elbow.
Has anyone been talking about the lack of offense in the AL this year? Entering today the AL average hitter was hitting .247/.318/.392.
Casey Blake hitting now. He’d kill for a line of .247/.318/.392.
Rasner is getting ahead of everyone, but when gets to 0-2, he doesn’t have the pitches to put people away, so he has to keep nibbling and trying to get them to chase. It’s a little frustrating to watch.
He shuts me up by fanning Blake on a hit and run, and the Yankees are able to catch Garko in a rundown. Posada throws to Cano who, flips to Mientkiewicz, who applies the tag for what I think is the most exciting play in baseball, the strike ‘em out, throw ‘em out DP.
Bottom of the second: Cano leads things off in the second. Although they are different stylistically, Cano reminds me a lot of Alfonso Soriano. When he’s going well, rocking line drives from foul line to foul line, he’s a pleasure to watch. When he’s not, he can be really annoying to watch.
Consider me annoyed, as he chops weakly to second for the first out.
Speaking of annoyed again, here’s Melky. I’d really like to see him start hitting. Malkey rewards me with a bloop single to CF, but Doug M grounds it to first, and they fore Melky at second.
Wil Nieves at the plate. His next hit will be his first as a Yankee, despite getting time in 2005 and 2006. Nieves hits it about as well as he is capable off, which means its a flyball that died in left center field, about 300 feet from home plate, in the glove on an OF. Maybe next time kid.
Top of the third: Jhonny Peralta gets things going in the top of the third, and he whiffs. Since I accused Rasner of not having a pitch to put people away, he’s struck out two. He gets Rouse to fly out to shallow center for the second out, and Michaels will bat with two outs. Michaels grounds out 4-3, and Rasner has his best inning of the day.
Bottom of the third: Damon gets his second look at Carmona now. I haven’t looked at the #s yet, but it seems that most of the Yankee offensive damage this year has come on the second and third trips through the order. He breaks his bat and hits a little dunker into RF for a leadoff single.
Jeter batting. Damon takes off on the first pitch, and Martinez’s throw isn’t even close as he steals second. Jeter hits one pretty well the other way, but Michaels is able to flag it down in RF. Damon advances to third on the play.
Abreu up, and the Indians are bringing the infield in with one down and Damon on third. Abreu grounds a 2-1 pitch through the drawn in infield. I can’t say for sure that it would have been fielded if the second baseman was back at normal depth. Likely not, it was hit pretty hard. Yanks take the 1-0 lead.
A-Rod up. He’s now 0 for 4 with 4 Ks in his career against Carmona. Make that 0 for 5 with 5 Ks, but Abreu does steal second on the play.
Giambi bats with Abreu on second and two down. I’d imagine he won’t get much to hit here. Carmona’s not happy with the last two calls he’s gotten against Giambi as he’s fallen behind 3-0. Giambi flies to short left and Dellucci makes a nice sliding catch to get the third out. Carmona’s performance so far has lowered his ERA to 8.59. Not bad.
Top of the fourth: Rasner gets Sizemore to ground to Cano, who flips to Mientkiewicz for the first out. Rasner’s now at 49 pitches.
On a 2-2 pitch, tries to sneak fastaball inside on Dellucci, who cracks it into the RF seats to tie the game at 1. Feh. That one skimmed the wall on its way out, but it counts.
Here’s Hafner, a very scary fella. He lines one the other way for a single.
It should be noted this is the second time through the order for Cleveland now, and Rasner’s struggling a little bit more, although it seems to be of his own doing. He’s losing the strike zone now, and walks Martinez on four pitches.
Rasner’s working a lot slower this inning, and the Yankees aren’t wasting any time in getting the pen moving. Brian Bruney is loosening now.
Garko gets plunked, and Ron Guidry goes out to talk to him. Since the Dellucci HR he’s been a different pitcher.
I can’t read lips, but whatever Gator told him took about 3 seconds.
Whatever it was worked, for one batter at least, as he gets pop out to the tarp down the first base line, and Doug M makes a nice catch leaning on the tarp. One out away from pitching out of a mess, and here’s Jhonny.
Rasner fans Peralta to end the inning. The last two pitches were clocked at 90 mph even. Good recovery there. But, the Tribe tie it up.
Bottom of the fourth: Cano the singles hitter leads it off. If he can get on it lets the Yankees clear the black hole that is MelkMinkNieves.
Cano hits one up the middle pretty sharply, but Rouse is able to recover when he can’t pick it cleanly and throws him out.
Melky follows up with a single. I’m amazed. Maybe Mientkiewicz won’t hit into a 1-6-3 DP here, and I’ll be even more amazed.
Mientkiewicz is 2 for his last 24, which qualifies as red-hot for him. He flies out to Dellucci for the second out. Melky was running on the play and returned to first.
Nieves up. I would be shocked if he doesn’t make an out here. He hits the first pitch to second base, and the force Melky.
Top of the fifth: Rouse leads things off by hacking at the first pitch, and flying out to Melky for the first out. Everyday Mike Myers is loosening now in the pen.
Melky’s 2 for 2 has raised his average to .212. Mientkiewicz’s 0 for 2 has lowered his to .147.
A groundball single that Cano can’t quite get to ends Rasner’s day. He wasn’t bad, but I guess they don’t want to take any chances here.
Myers in to face Sizemore. He starts him off with a strike, then follows up with three straight out of the zone. Grady hits it well and the crowd groans, but Damon is able to make a nice running catch in right center field the wall for the second out.
Myers then gets Dellucci to ground right back to him to end the inning. If the Yankees are going to score, now would be a good time.
Bottom of the fifth: Carmona begins the inning with 77 pitches through four, so the Yankees can probably get him out of the game here with a little rally.
Damon tries to do his part, working a full count before flying out to CF for the first out.
Jeter grounds to Peralta who fields it and bobbles it a little, but still recovers in time to get Jeter. Two down, Abreu up.
Abreu grounds out to Garko.
Yeah, when I said rally to knock him out of the game, that wasn’t quite what i had in mind…
Top of the sixth: Hafner singles up the middle against Myers. That was the first hit Myers has allowed in the last 22 batters he’s faced.
Torre keeping Myers in against Martinez. I don’t like this in a tight game. If he gets him out, then that means that it’s more likely to keep happening, and if he doesn’t, that means something bad is going to happen here.
Myers ends up hitting Martinez on the leg, putting two on with no outs. Myers out, Bruney in.
Bruney has had much better control this year, which has been the biggest thing holding him back. Garko’s really battling him here. Lots of fouls. I think Bruney’s thrown about ten pitches now to Garko. Garko wins the battle, grounding one between third and short. Melky charged in, which kept Hafner at third. So the Indians have the bases loaded, and no outs. Blake up.
Blake rips one on the line, but right into A-Rod’s glove. One down.
Bruney doesn’t look like he has his good fastball today. He’s been mostly 93-94 on his fastball, and is not getting many swings and misses.
Come on Bruney. Rasner struck Peralta out with a fastball. Why can’t you?
He does the next best thing, getting Peralta to pop up. Infield fly rule is called, and Cano makes the catch for the second out. One more out to go. Sean Henn warming in the pen.
Bruney gets Rouse to pop out to Melky in LF to end the inning. Great job pitching out of a bases-loaded, no out jam in a 1-1 game. He deserves a win for that effort. If the team can score for him here, he might get it.
Bottom of the sixth:
Giambi to lead things off. I’d imagine Posada will hit for Nieves if they get to that point.
GIAMBI MAULS IT. UPPER DECK! 2-1 YANKEES!
Giambi’s now hitting .259 /.355 /.519
Cano and Melky go out meekly, so meekly that I missed it while typing about how great Giambi is. I apparently also missed A-Rod not striking out to really lead things off.
Top of the seventh: L-Viz in. While his ERA is nice, he’s walked 4 in 8.2 innings and only struck out two.
He walks the leadoff hitter. That was sub-optimal. Sizemore follows up with a ringing double in the gap in right center. Abreu picks it up off the wall and throws in, and the Indians hold Michaels at third for some reason.
A Dellucci grounder brings the tying run home. 2-2, Sizemore goes to third on the play.
After a mound conference, they decide to walk Haftner and set up the double play.
Victor Martinez hits one into the right center field bleachers for a three run HR, and the Yankees now trail 5-2. Shit.
This game went to hell quickly, huh?
L-Viz recovers to strike out Garko. That almost makes up for giving up four runs.
Another K ends the frame, but the damage is done.
Bottom of the seventh: I miss a Josh Phelps PH appearance because someone came to my door, but I am in time to see Posada fly out for the second out. This game is really going to leave a bad taste in my mouth.
Damon doesn’t help things with a weak fly out to end the inning.
Top of the eighth: Funny how O’Neill is talking about how hitters don’t like seeing Farnsworth. I don’t like seeing him either.
After one out, Farnsworth gets a popup foul on the third base side, but A-Rod can’t make the play thanks to fan interference. Farnsworth ends up walking the hitter. Jason Michaels flies out for the second out.
Farnsworth adds to his legend by balking. He gets out of the inning, but this game’s basically over. I’d be shocked if the Yankees get a baserunner over the next two innings.
Bottom of the eighth: Rafael Betancourt in for the Indians. Jeter up. He fists ones to RF and Michaels catches it for the first out.
Abreu falls behind 0-2, then takes three straight out of the zone. On a full count he lines a base hit to RF.
A-Rod up, with his 17 game hitting streak on the line. He gets under the first pitch and pops out to Blake at 3B for the second out.
Giambi up. He takes strikes two and three, and did not agree with either call. Inning over.
Top of the ninth: Sean Henn gets the ninth. He gets Dellucci to K on a slider down and away for the first out. Haftner and Martinez follow up with singles, and there’s runners on first and second with one down.
Henn gets Garko to ground out 5-3, with the runners advancing. Henn needs to get out of this here.
A weak grounder to short and A-Rod cuts in front of Jeter to make the play, but his throw is high and Blake beats it. They give him an error on the play, although it was close. More importantly, it’s now 6-2 instead of 5-2, and the Yankees’ comeback chances are that much worse.
Inning finally ends on a weak liner behind second that Cano catches.
Bottom of the ninth: Joe Borowski in to get three outs before giving up four runs.
Cano steps in. He pops to shallow center, three Indians converge and almost collide, but Sizemore is able to make the catch.
Melky now batting and quickly down in the count 0-2. He grounds out to Peralta for the second out.
Josh Phelps is the last hope.
This game sucked ass. Hopefully the weekend goes better.
Phelps decides to prolong the agony by homering in a lost cause. 6-3 Indians.
Posada decides to prolong the agony by lining a single up the middle. Now Johnny Damon is the last hope.
Damon decides to prolong the agony by drawing a walk.
I think I mentioned last week how when the team is trailing late, I always just root for them to get an opportunity to bring the tying run to the plate. Well, he’s there now.
Jeter decides to prolong the agony by singling in a run, and making the game 6-4.
Damon is at second, Jeter is at first, and Abreu is up. He falls behind quickly 1-2.
Abreu decides to prolong the agony by singling in Damon. It’s now 6-5 Indians and A-Rod comes up with the tying run on second.
Wild pitch moves the runners to second and third.
HE HOMERS. HE HOMERS! YANKEES WIN!!!!
The agony is no longer being prolonged.
Wow. Just Wow.
Comments
I would suggest a study on Wang. It has been widely reported that few (no?) pitchers have been successful with such a low strikeout rate. Maybe you can determine how much of an anomaly he is?
Alternately, I think anything that uses statistics and regression analysis should qualify as learning. If you can reproduce a study that shows that team OPS predicts team runs scored better than OBP, which is in turn better than AVG which ... Walks, etc. I think there is some real learning there. You can reproduce results that already exist, but demonstrate that you learned how to do the analysis, I think that will be significantly educational.
Good luck.
All I can say to the way the game ended is wow!
By the way, Wang pitched in Tampa this evening. His line was: 5IP 5H 3ER 1BB 4K. Obviously, the main thing is that he pitched. I suppose he’ll now be in line to start against Tampa. Also, Ross Ohlendorf, who has been having some problems, showed some improvement for SWB. His line was: 6IP 2H 1ER 2BB 4K.
I can’t ebeliev I missed this game, I was at Swim practice. I`ve missed both his walk-offs
Yo, SG, I sent you an e-mail. Did you get it?
I think, EFB, that if you multiply the team’s At Bats by on base and then slugging percentage, you get a pretty darn good estimate on how many runs the team should have scored.
That said, the Yankees are currently outplaying their offensive production 
Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
On the other hand, one can only imagine how many runs the team would score with a league average 1B. Perhaps today’s HR from Josh Phelps is a sign of good things to come, perhaps, .270/.340/.475. Moreover, I have a feeling he wouldn’t be too horrible defensively (although he’d certainly be below average) if he played on a regular basis.
This is for A.Phil. I’m an AP Stat and calc teacher and a Yankees fan. I know that I would be thrilled at a student turning in a well presented project of the sort that Andrew described in post 206. Alternately, you may want to try something like running a chi-squared analysis with your expected values being pythagorean records of teams vs. the observed actual records. There are also a bunch of cool hypothesis testing things that you can do with t-tests or z-tests on various samples of at bats by a player to see how well you can predict overall performance. For example you could take p-hat to be the proportion of A-rod’s HR to plate appearances over the course of April. Then run a proportion z-test with a null hypothesis that p = his lifetime hr/pa ratio, to see how anomolous his beastly year so far has been. Try different levels of significance. Calculate the probability of some Type II errors for various alternative hypothesis, etc. Best of luck.
All that stuff in 209 can probably be calculated with web apps easily findable via google or wikipedia.
Yeah, but any good stat teacher will want to see that the student could do it themselves. IF a student just handed me the results of some web apps and couldn’t, under my questioning, explain how he had done the math, I’d fail them. Since A.Phil is in an AP Stat class, he presumably knows how to do everything I described. If not, he’s in for a lot of hurting on the May 8th (the date of the AP Stat exam.)
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