I like Nick Swisher’s pitching projection

Yeah, I’m thinking Swisher as fourth starter or 8th inning guy.

Did you project Hughes as a starter somewhere as well? I’m also a bit surprised by the computer pessimism on both Damon and Matsui. I do like that it is particularly tough on minor league players. It may be too tough, but I think its a much better idea to project them pessimistically. And, who is Luke Priholda?

Seems pessimistic on A-Rod to me.

Who the hell is Carlos Mendoza?

i think he has that terrible show “Mind of Mendoza”

too slow on the SG interview thread, just want to add that you are the man, SG.

keep bringin’ the great stuff.

unfortunately, RLYW is now behind my employer’s firewall and it’s harder for me to keep up, but i’ve been enjoying the site for ~5 years.  and i wouldn’t worry about that Odalis Perez post, i can vividly remember arguing for the yanks to fill their CF hole with Jason Michaels!  get on it Cash!!

Did you project Hughes as a starter somewhere as well?

Not officially.  If I were to do that right now, he’d project around 4.59 ERA-wise, and 17 RSAR over 150 innings.

Who is Luke Prihoda?.

Indy-league relief signing.

Who is Carlos Mendoza?.

Looks like Mendoza is retiring from playing and will serve as a coach.  CAIRO is so cutting-edge it now projects coaches too.

Manager Pete Incaviglia

For some reason, I find this combination of words unexpected and amusing.

Seems pessimistic on A-Rod to me.

Really?  I thought it was actually a little optimistic. FWIW, that’s the second best projected wOBA in the entire system, behind Albert Pujols.  Third, if you count Miguel Cairo’s 1.000.

It seems strange that Nady projects to have a .349 wOBA given that his career wOBA is .342 and he’s coming off a significant injury, but Fangraphs’s Bill James has him at .347.

SG more optimistic than Bill James? Is Nady the new Cairo?

CAIRO is so cutting-edge it now projects coaches too.

It’s so cutting-edge that Girardi is printing them off right now, 3-hole punching them, and putting them into his magic binder.

It seems strange that Nady projects to have a .349 wOBA given that his career wOBA is .342 and he’s coming off a significant injury, but Fangraphs’s Bill James has him at .347.

Probably not really worth looking at career wOBA for a player who’s accrued more than four seasons of playing time.  Player talent generally changes too much.

A weighted average of Nady’s wOBAs from 2006-2009 accounting gives Nady a wOBA of .357, so the .349 fits with the age-related decline and regression.  I don’t have any injury-related correction, although it may make sense to have some kind of penalty for a player who effectively misses the entire season.

I asked this in the other thread and I’ll ask again: am I the only one who finds it a bit odd that the Rule 5 draft is held before the non-tender deadline?  Wouldn’t it make more sense the other way around?  I’m not even sure if teams can announce their non-tenders early to free up roster spots.

I do find it odd as well. It seems one of the main reasons to non-tender guys is to free up a spot on the 40 man roster. I am pretty sure you can’t non-tender a guy early, he is on your roster until the deadline, and if he isn’t offered a contract by the deadline then he just becomes a FA once the deadline is passed.

SG - that’s true.  It’s an excellent line… the numbers that strike me as lower than expected, however, are the ‘triple crown’ numbers.

Given NYS and no built-in expectation of injury, I’d expect more HRs.

Also, unless I’m mistaken, we’re predicting a BA lower than anything he’s touched since he hit .232 in 48 games in 1995.  Is that age-based regression?  Granted, it’s only a bit lower than this past year, but it seems significantly out of line with he previous 5 years.

And given the team around him, along with park factors, etc., I’d expect moe than 112 RBI.

Is this unreasonable?

Also, I feel compelled to note that I’m not overestimating the importance of those stats, it’s just that those were the numbers were lower than expected.

I do find it odd as well. It seems one of the main reasons to non-tender guys is to free up a spot on the 40 man roster. I am pretty sure you can’t non-tender a guy early, he is on your roster until the deadline, and if he isn’t offered a contract by the deadline then he just becomes a FA once the deadline is passed.

The union probably doesn’t like players being non-tendered, and didn’t want to encourage it, but I’m not sure.

I hear WP’s favorite stat is RBI.

I knew that was a mistake.
Soon I’ll be talking about “winning type” players, do you think?

My point is only that various aspects of the line ought to be consistent with expectation if they are presented as having predictive value due to said expectations.

I know where these stats rank., but nevertheless it seem strange that they don’t seem to match expectations.  They are not especially indicative of performance value, but they emerge from the same basic predicted numbers.  If, therefore, they don’t seem to match expectations, that might seem to raise a potential question with respect to other aspects of the line that better indicators of performance value.

Somebody tell me I don’t have to crawl away with my tail between my legs!

Yup—you can probably get to www.replacementlevel.com by typing in the URL here:

http://www.peekatwork.com/

...the numbers that strike me as lower than expected, however, are the ‘triple crown’ numbers.

Alex Rodriguez has a .305 career batting average and had averaged 44 HR and 128 RBI per 162 games for his career.  Adjusting that for the 605 PA that are being projected here gives 37.02 HR and 107.71 RBI.  So you’re quibbling over batting average and playing time, Pete.

Personally, I don’t find it unreasonable to think that BA and PT might decline more quickly than some other components as a player ages.

well the reason they aren’t useful for predicting future performance is that they are (more) influenced by factors outside of a player’s control, and for the same reason they are more difficult to predict.  SG, how do you project rbi’s?  Do you have a formula for them based on other stats? Do you take the team into account? Is it just a weighted average?

Soon I’ll be talking about <strike>“winning type” players</strike> “True Yankees”, do you think?

Fixed.

True, MC.

In addition to the BA quibbl, the HR idea might also still stand, though, I think.  Some weighting for the past five years (his NY career, minus the first year), over which he averaged a tad over 40HR/season.  And perhaps additional weighting for park effects that, I think, must still leave NYS a better HR park for right-handers than its predecessor.  This is compensated for by a decline-phase prediction?

The system may not be taking into account the fact that we KNOW he was playing injured last year, but we could conceivably take that into account and, perhaps - probably lowering to some extent the high weighting we’d normally expect to attribute to the immediately preceding season?  If we did that, the average performace in these numbers for the past 4-5 years inches up still further…

Is it that they’re not predictive, Tree, or that they’re not great indicators of performance value?

I’d think that stats that depend upon a group of players (i.e., RBI) might conceivably be easier to predict than one that depends solely upon a single player…

In the first iteration of my projections, playing time, runs and RBI, pitcher W-L are all based on weighted averages. 

When rosters are a little more settled, I usually plug the player projections into Diamond Mind (a simulator) with expected lineups and that gives me runs, RBI, wins, losses and saves that are more closely related to the team around the player.

well for a team RBI’s are pretty much the same as runs scored, so they are a good measure of performance; the problems come when you only use information from one player’s history, problems in both predicting the future and measuring past value, which is why I was curious how SG (and other projectors) compute them.

A weighted average of Nady’s wOBAs from 2006-2009 accounting gives Nady a wOBA of .357, so the .349 fits with the age-related decline and regression.

That makes sense, but his 2008 half-season with Pittsburgh seems to be so out of context that I’m skeptical that it’s representative of his true talent.

That makes sense, but his 2008 half-season with Pittsburgh seems to be so out of context that I’m skeptical that it’s representative of his true talent.

It’s possible, but when I looked at fluke seasons (specifically with Nady in mind), the evidence showed that fluke seasons generally tell us something.

When rosters are a little more settled, I usually plug the player projections into Diamond Mind (a simulator) with expected lineups and that gives me runs, RBI, wins, losses and saves that are more closely related to the team around the player.

thanks, I like that method.  Much better than developing an explicit mathematical model (using markov chains, I guess) just to figure out how many RBI’s a player will have given their team.

[32] I had forgotten about that post. Thanks.

OT:

Davidoff:

#Yankees’ biggest focus so far is finding common ground with Damon. Pettitte’s return should work out, Matsui less of a priority.

McCarron:

“He is an extremely talented guy,” says one baseball executive who has seen Chapman pitch. “My bet is that it’ll come down to the Yankees and Red Sox, like it always does now. Most of us believe that. To them, it’s only money.

“And I think the Yankees will get him. They can give him a big-league contract over five years for $20 million and they don’t even feel that.”

Soon I’ll be talking about <strike>“winning type” players</strike> <strike>“True Yankees”</strike> playing the game the right way, do you think?

Fixed!!!!!!!!!!

Why is “The Trader” batting righthanded in his 22kt gold baseball card?

OK, the coin set worked for bringing home the W in ALCS game 2…

“If we sign Lackey and Holliday I will buy a 22kt Gold Yankees Baseball Card.”

[38]
Are we (collectively) certain that we want you to do that, Pin?

[37] I thought someone already explained that Damon is actually right handed (batting and throwing) but that is why he looks so awkward batting and attempting to catch baseballs.

[39] I don’t know if signing Lackey is something all of us want to support. It seems most are on-board with Holliday, but not so much Lackey with the possible FA pitchers available next off-season (and those of us who think Joba AND Hughes should be given spots in the rotation).

[39] My attitude towards Lackey and Holiday depends on the total level of resources that the team has available.  If payroll >= $250m, I’ll back signing both since they are clearly the best choices this year and at $250m, it won’t preclude future plans.  If payroll >= 220m, I’d prefer to just sign Holliday.  If payroll ~= 200m, I’m not sure that signing either is right.

At a 200m payroll, money is going to be tight, and I’d rather not have Cashman feel so squeezed that it’s not possible to build a good bench, keep some money in reserve to cover pre-deadline injuries, or pay for potential which isn’t sure to be realized.  For example, if the team thinks that Wang’s value over the next 2 years is > 10m, I’d rather offer him arbitration even if he’s unlikely to realize much of that value in 2010.  Similarly, if Chapman can be signed to an attractive deal but needs a year in AAA, that might be a good value which isn’t available after signing Holliday.

It’s tough to determine Wang’s value at this point.  He’s thrown 137 innings in the last two seasons, and is now coming off a big injury.  I’d love for him to come back strong and at least be a back of the rotation guy, but he’s such a wild card at this point.

I don’t believe this for a second:

Boston.com:

The Yankees could easily get into the Roy Halladay hunt if they’re willing to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, which they apparently are. The one player they’d love to hold on to is Austin Jackson, their future center fielder who could keep their outfield costs low.

Would the Blue Jays even want players like Chamberlain and Hughes?  They only have one cheap year left, and will both command decent salaries during their arb years if they come anywhere close to their potential.  If you’re embarking on real rebuilding, you have to be concerned about whether these guys will still be with you when you’re ready to contend again.

I would imagine that Toronto asks for Montero and Jackson, and Cashman hangs up.

Anyone who trades fro Halladay is going to give up too much.  And everyone who analyzes the trade will say that Toronto didn’t get enough.

The process could become interesting if Halladay tells Toronto that he will only waive his NTC if he is traded a particular team. Does Toronto then make the best deal they can, even if it’s at a discounted price, or do they hold on to him and take the draft picks?

I was going to question Posada’s projection as perhaps a bit ungenerous.  Then I remembered 2003, when I thought he was on the way out.

Also, I never really get into the armchair GM business because it’s mostly a fool’s errand, and tends to produce speculation of the 20-player WFAN daytime call trade.

But I’m curious (just because I like him and for no other reason) how Adam Dunn projects defensively relative to Johnny Damon.

just guessing, but i’d imagine that Dunn projects exactly the same as Damon…wearing a blindfold.

Telnar hits it on the head in [41], and do we really think they’re going to up the payroll to $2500000000?
In a limited market, Lackey and Holliday seem likely to get more than they would in a better market - second tier talent that’s going to be paid like first-tier talent.  Pass, unless the price unexpectedly winds up lower than we have a right to expect.
And why would NYA treat Halladay differently than Santana?  Very similar situations, in many (not all) ways, aren’t they.
I think I’d be fine with none of these things happening - see what Cashman can do via other routes.

[48] I’m confused.  Who’s wearing the blindfold?  Dunn, Damon, or the guy doing the projections?

In a limited market, Lackey and Holliday seem likely to get more than they would in a better market - second tier talent that’s going to be paid like first-tier talent.

Unless demand is constrained by external factors, like a weak economy and/or a confidential memo from the commissioner.

[39, etc.]

Of course. I don’t think it’s a likely scenario. I’m just thinking of the players who are smaller question marks to make bigger contributions.

To me, we have lots of uncertainty in the outfield and pitcher - and IMO we dodged several bullets. Joba and Hughes are still in “if” mode, IPK is as well, plus injury. Wang is…Wang. Andy was a bet that paid off big.

Nady, Damon, Melky, Gardner. Do we have unqualified confidence in any of them ?

just guessing, but i’d imagine that Dunn projects exactly the same as Damon…wearing a blindfold.

So, Dunn = 2009 Damon, defensively?

With Halladay announcing he won’t resign w/ the Jays, he’s basically created a situation where the 2011 Jays have 2 late first round trade picks, and a good chance of winning every 5th day in 2010.  That’s the value they need to be thinking about when they are trying to trade him.

Hughes ALONE comes close to matching that.  I’d like to think the Yankees could get Halladay for less than that.  Maybe a package centered around austin jackson.  Other than the Redsox, any other team trading for Halladay would probably only be getting him for one year, and thus might not be willing to offer more than that.

Assuming the Yankees could get Halladay, without giving up Joba or Hughes, I think they’d have cut costs in the OF and not re-sign Pettitte.

a rotation of CC, Halladay, AJ, Joba and Hughes very good for the regular season and downright scary for the playoffs.

And an OF of Melky, Gardner, Swisher isn’t that big of a downgrade from 2009.

DH then becomes a question of Damon, Matsui, or someone even cheaper.

Damon and Dunn’s defense?

Ain’t the same ballpark, ain’t the same league, ain’t even the same fuckin’ sport.

Adam Dunn is in a universe of his own.

I don’t think trading for Doc would preclude them from bringing back Pettitte for one year. Doc only makes $15.75M next season, but would significantly more expensive after that (assuming they would extend his contract as part of the trade).

Not that I want them to have a scenario where they can justify moving Hughes or Joba to teh ate, but if you are trading for Doc to build a killer win-now rotation, you might as well bring back Pettitte as the #4 starter and go with the safer bet of only needing one of Joba/Hughes to be an effective #5 starter.

An argument can certainly be made that this is the smart thing to do. The core (Jeter/Posada/ARod/Mo) aren’t young by any means. CC has that opt out in two years. So, why not go all out and try to give yourself the best chance to win a couple titles right now with a killer rotation, even if it means mortgaging the future title hopes 5 years from now?

I don’t know if that’s what want them to do, but there is certainly an argument to be made for doing so.

In a limited market, Lackey and Holliday seem likely to get more than they would in a better market - second tier talent that’s going to be paid like first-tier talent.

Are Lackey and Holliday really second-tier talent?  If they are, they’re certainly at or near the top of any “second tier” you’d be talking about.  In which case, is paying fair value for top-of-the-second-tier talent necessarily a bad thing?  It worked out well with Teixeira and Burnett last year, both players that I’d consider to be at similar levels as Holliday and Lackey.

On another front, if the Yankees go for any kind of approach that involves a “rotating DH,” what about signing Mark DeRosa as the super-utility guy?

With Halladay announcing he won’t resign w/ the Jays…

Halladay hasn’t announced anything.  Paul Beeston did, which is pretty damned bizarre if you think about it.  Why undercut your own leverage like that?

Hughes ALONE comes close to matching that.

Yeah, I’ve been beating this drum for a few days now.  It’s just amazing how little understanding people have of what constitutes a fair trade.  For a guy like Halladay with a 1 year, $16M contract, one top prospect and a couple of risky (but high upside) younger guys is probably an overpay.  Like I said, whoever gets Halladay will give up too much, but everybody will say that the Jays didn’t get enough.

On another front, if the Yankees go for any kind of approach that involves a “rotating DH,” what about signing Mark DeRosa as the super-utility guy?

If it HAS to be DH-by-committee then DeRosa would be a safer bet to give the extra PA to than Pena and whoever else would be on the bench otherwise. But they would probably also want to sign a BUC who can hit since most of the rotating DH plans have Posada spending a significant amount of time at DH, and Cervelli might not be ready for 80+ starts at C, at least his bat probably isn’t.

Basically, the rotating DH plan isn’t as cheap monetarily as some are assuming, since you have to either upgrade your bench, upgrade your rotation, or be prepared for WOE.

Long-time listener, first-time caller, etc etc.  I really enjoy the site, and I’d like to thank Larry, SG, and Jonathan for all their hard work.  However, I do have some questions about the projections:

I don’t see a projection for Wilkins de la Rosa, who showed some success at Trenton this year, or for both Hector Noesi and Romulo Sanchez, who were added to the 40-man roster the other day.  Additionally, how about Tim Norton, who’s rehabbing from shoulder surgery?

Additionally, does Austin Jackson really project that poorly?  I realize he didn’t exactly crush AA and AAA, and his success was mostly BA-driven, but there’s not much positive to take away from there, despite his youth/playing in pitcher’s parks.  On a similar token, I’m surprised Jesus Montero projects so well, since his highest level is a half-season of AA.  CAIRO seems to think he’d hit well enough to be a credible big league catcher out of ST 2010 (although his defense is another story, I assume).  Actually, looking at the rest of the list of the minor leaguers, Montero’s projection looks ineffingcredible.  Care to shed some light on that, SG?

Between this and his ZiPS projection, Shelley Duncan looks like a DH/1B/RF on a bad team, as opposed to just a AAA slugger.

just a hunch, but someone will overpay DeRosa to start for them this winter.

Montero isn’t easy to project because there aren’t many prospects per decade to compare him to.  He’s worth a lot more if he can stick behind the plate (and we’ve heard some random rumors of late that that’s less highly unlikely than we thought) so it’s good to give him a long chance there in the MiLs.

Shelley probably is a major leaguer on a middling NL team - but he’s also not that projectable from his MiL #s given his age.  He’s already passing his peak.

Jackson has projected pretty well for a young CF in the past - last time I asked SG it sounded like he might be a sensible option mid-year (or was that mid-2009?  Can’t keep up.  In physics reality is a fixed target.).

Nova in the Dominican Winter League: 25 IP, WHIP < 1, 3 R, 17 K.  Dunno if the competition is meaningless but anyway those #s are better than the opposite or inverse or whatever.

[57]
SAS, we could discuss what the top tier is, but I don’t see putting Lackey in a group that begins with Halladay, Lincecum, Santana, Greinke, King Felix… that’s the first tier.  Of course, the line is drawn subjectively…

But, most importantly, your response becomes unfair when you stick in the phrase “fair value.”  I explicitly posited that I think it’s very unlikely that the top starting pitcher of the current FA group, however unimpressive that group is, will likely receive an exaggerated contract.  I translate: more than fair or reasonable value.  I also wrote that, if somehow that didn’t happen, I think we’d view it differently.  But - I wouldn’t go betting the farm on it.

I hereby replace the broken sentence above with the following:

I explicitly posited that I think it’s very unlikely that the top starting pitcher of the current FA group, however unimpressive that group may be, will end up with a contract that fails to exceed “fair value.”  It seems very likely that he will get a contract that significantly exceeds his worth.

[64] I agree. Lackey is good, but not the kind of guy you pay the contract he’s likely to get. I think he’s in the AJ Burnett tier, but without the slim possibility of figuring it out and more injury prone.

On the other hand I think Holliday is in the top tier. Sure his value took a hit moving from Coors, but he still hit pretty well and plays a good LF.

As far as projections I think that CAIRO really values ISOp and ISOd and heavily suppresses empty BA, especially for MiL players. While it produces pessimistic results, I think its better to be pessimistic about the ability of most MiL players to produce in the majors.

Personally I think that Austin Jackson would likely hit for a better average than SG projects, but not by a lot. (Honestly, most of my beleif that AJax would hit better is based on the fact that Gardner hasn’t hit horribly and from all reports Jackson is a much better hitter.)

MLBTR says Damon is looking for a deal similar to Abreu who got 19MM over 2 years. Damon for 20MM over 2 years sounds pretty good to me.

Absent a comprehensive exam of Lackey’s elbow, I would be reluctant to sign him to a long-term contract.

[67] Given his declining defense and the number of aging position players already on the Yankees, I would not give Damon two years, but I think the Yankees probably would.

I remember all the discussion about Damon being of one year deals or let him walk… until Boras asked for four years.
Now everyone’s saying that Damon should get two.
Damn, Boras must be very, very good.

[70] I think ideally you sign him for one year, but realistically he probably gets 2. He’s good enough that some team somewhere will give him the years. If the Yankees want him they will have to sign him for more than one year.

Then Matsui might be the better choice, Clay.  Esp. as I don’t think Damon wants to go anywhere else and might stand down if confronted with that scenario.

[72] I’ve been in favor of Matsui all along, but Damon at ~10MM per year isn’t awful. And honestly, as awful as he looked and was in LF this season I can’t imagine he’s really gone from a very good LF in both 2007 and 2008 to as awful as he was in 2009. I’d be willing to bet that he bounces back next year to be right around average in the field. Of course, if the Yankees are planning on grabbing Cameron or Holliday then Damon doesn’t make that much sense.

Cameron and Damon together doesn’t not make sense.  An OF/DH rotation of Cameron/Damon/Gardner/Melky/Swish works for me, especially as I don’t really think of Melky or Gardner as every day players.

In this scenario Damon would be at DH 1/2 the time and LF 2/5 of the time (with rest).

the Frog [et al.], do you have any suggestions for villainx in the Cano thread?

Can’t help much in the poetry thread but I just got around to watching the Mannypaq/ Cotto beating from last weekend.
If any of you guys ever need to guage your toughness call Miguel Cotto.
The lad took a 12 round blistering that kind of made me a bit queazy.
Face ripped open in the 5th, eyes nearly shut by the 8th. He stumbled out of his corner for the 11th. Dead on his feet.
Dude was game and willing.
Mannypaq beat him like the redheaded stepchild.
Pacquiaos hand speed is otherworldly.
Boxing sure beats being a Jets fan.

And honestly, as awful as he looked and was in LF this season I can’t imagine he’s really gone from a very good LF in both 2007 and 2008 to as awful as he was in 2009.

Damon had a precipitous decline in CF defense from 2004 to 2005, and despite his UZR improving from 2006 to 2007 (based on a small sample size), my recollection that he got worse over that period of time. So I think it’s not unreasonable to think that he will be awful in LF in 2010, and unusable by 2011.

Between 2008 and 2009 Damon went from being +11.2 UZR/150 to -12.1 UZR/150. That seems too much of a drop to be a true talent change. His RZR didn’t change that much but his Out of Zone plays dropped on a rate basis, pretty significantly. I think it is likely that Damon has regressed defensively. However I doubt he’s transformed from a strong asset to a serious liability in one year, especially in LF. I seriously doubt that Damon will be above average again (at least not significantly so), I think it is more likely that he is now an average defensive LF.

But Damon’s UZR/150 went from 37.4 in 2007 to 11.6 in 2008 to -12.1 in 2009. The trend is a potential red flag, especially when viewed in the context of the way his defense declined in CF during prior seasons.

He played 271 inning of LF in 2007, 659.1 in 2008 and 1117.2 in 2009. Considering there is concern about the validity of the sample size of a single season’s defensive data I find 271 innings worth of data difficult to take seriously, especially when it says someone is posting a UZR/150 rate of 37.4.

I’m not saying Damon is a good LF, just that it is reasonably unlikely that he is truly as bad as we performed in 2009.

Again, it’s the trend that concerns me, as well as the nagging injuries and the overall age of the team. I wouldn’t give him the second year, but I’m not presiding over the cash cow that is the NYY.

I agree there is a trend, and that the second year is a problem. But if the Yankees sign him as a LF for 2010 and as a DH for 2011, I wouldn’t have a huge issue with it. At 10MM/year Damon looks to be a pretty good deal.

I’d certainly prefer Matsui on a 1 year and Holliday.

Wow, I’m going to take back my interest in Adam Dunn.  His fangraphs defensive line from 2009 is appalling…and I expected wretched.  It’s too bad: he’s one of my favorite players.  But he needs an AL team without a million 35 year olds.  I suppose I could root for him on a team like the White Sox.

[82]  I agree: a one-year holiday would be great.

Rilke . . .  what?

Re: Damon vs Matsui,

I think we’re getting too much afterglow on Matsui’s MVP performance.  CAIRO projects Matsui for a .346 wOBA and Damon for .339 (question: does this version of wOBA include SB?).  I think just adding in non-SB baserunning and they are pretty much equivalent offensively.  So you have two players who are equivalent offensively, one of whom *can* play the field (and I imagine SG will project him ~ -5 runs defensively), and won’t need to be removed as a PR, and actually can be used as a PR on days he doesn’t start.  Why take the other player?

Plus we suddenly have this notion that it is a given Matsui will take a one-year deal?  I think it’s just as likely he’ll want 2 years as well.  Try to get Damon to take the 2nd year as an option, vesting w/ like 600PA.  Just make it known to him they’re still going to pursue Holliday to play LF.  The team is better w/ Holliday+Damon than Holliday+Matsui.  Plus, if they can’t acquire Holliday, Damon is the LF.  At that point they can either get Matsui, trade for Dunn as a DH, or whatever.

Wow, I’m going to take back my interest in Adam Dunn. His fangraphs defensive line from 2009 is appalling…and I expected wretched.

Totally POOMA, but it’s hard for me to believe that Montero in his early 20 can’t be at least a little better defensive OFer than Dunn, if he can’t remain at C.

[83] There’s nothing wrong with Dunn, so long as you are relying on him to be your DH. He’s been a model of consistency for the past 5 years, and he’s signed reasonably for the next few (Cot’s is blocked at work for some reason, probably because ‘blog’ is in the URL).  If you can trade for Dunn you’re basically getting 40 HR’s, 100+ RBI, 110 BB’s (and yeah, 175 K’s..)

[87] Dunn is signed for one more year: 10:$12M; I agree that he would be a perfect fit at DH.

Who cares if the rest of the lineup is filled with 35 year-olds? He’d be playing DH. Does anyone doubt that Dunn is going to hit for the next two years? How would the age of the other guys affect that?

Dunn as the regular DH would be excellent.  But he’s a Natinal, and (POOMA) they’d ask for something ridiculous in trade.

Plus we suddenly have this notion that it is a given Matsui will take a one-year deal?

He has no knees.  He knows this.  That’s why.  Could be wrong, of course.

[89] I believe the thought is w/ a bunch of older players, you’re going to want to find time to DH them so they can have rest but their valuable bats are still in the lineup.  Of course, if you have a full-time DH putting up an OPS+ of 130 or more, there are very few players you worry about losing their bats if you need to rest them.  And fortunately, all of those bats (excepting maybe Damon, who isn’t even signed yet) are righty or switch, so you can work those guys into the DH slot against lefties.

I don’t see a projection for Wilkins de la Rosa, who showed some success at Trenton this year, or for both Hector Noesi and Romulo Sanchez, who were added to the 40-man roster the other day.  Additionally, how about Tim Norton, who’s rehabbing from shoulder surgery?

I have projections for all of them, just forgot to change their team to the Yankees instead of their minor league teams before I pulled the list. I just fixed that and the projections are re-running now, I’ll update the page when that finishes.

Additionally, does Austin Jackson really project that poorly?  I realize he didn’t exactly crush AA and AAA, and his success was mostly BA-driven, but there’s not much positive to take away from there, despite his youth/playing in pitcher’s parks.

Unfortunately, yeah.  It looks like his Ks and his lack of power are not a good combination when I run his MLEs.  I thought CAIRO may be too pessimistic, but ZiPS is even harsher (.245/.296/.338) and CHONE is right around where CAIRO is (.250/.308/.365).  Although they’re not yet publically available, the Hardball Times projections for Jackson are only a smidgen better (.256/.314/.376).

The good news is, projecting minor leaguers is really a crapshoot.  If it was up to me I’d probably not project them at all, but I know people like to look at them and they can be instructive in many cases.  Player skill in the early 20s is so volatile that a guy who looks like a D prospect one year ago can all of a sudden look like an A prospect a year later.  We try to account for the incremental improvements players make as they age, but fitting the standard development curve to a single player is not really all that useful.

He’s toolsy, the scouts liked him, and he’s a very good athlete.  That sounds like the profile of someone who has a good chance to make a quantum leap forward.  So don’t read too much into what a system that only looks at data thinks.

On a similar token, I’m surprised Jesus Montero projects so well, since his highest level is a half-season of AA.

Yeah, I think CAIRO’s a little bullish on Montero as well.  He’s just been so good at such a young age that I don’t think a general MLE formula can necessarily handle someone like that.  I do think the fact that the projection wouldn’t be adequate for a full-time DH is at least somewhat realistic.  Yeah, his bat would play at catcher right now if that projection is accurate, but the glove wouldn’t, which you mentioned.  That seems to jibe with the scouting reports, plus even if Montero isn’t a .258/.310/.444 hitter RIGHT NOW, I’d think he could be that by mid-season or by the end of the year.

Between this and his ZiPS projection, Shelley Duncan looks like a DH/1B/RF on a bad team, as opposed to just a AAA slugger.

The numbers have shown that the last couple of years, but I think rilkefan kind of hits the key issue with him on the head. He’s probably about to start declining, but I don’t see why a team like KC doesn’t grab him when he hits free agency and give him 300 full-time ABs for the hell of it.

Just realize that projections are educated guesses, albeit data driven, and by their design they assume that players follow the same general development paths.  I think they tell us a lot, but I don’t think they tell us everything.  You just hope that overall, they give you a good general idea of an organization’s talent level, assuming the high projections and low projections kind of mitigate each other.

[91] Actually I’m not sure if he knows that.  His doctor is talking about how after the *next* surgery Matsui is supposed to have shortly, Matsui could play the OF next year.  I’ll hunt around here and see if I can find a link (waiting for an email that would actually require me to do work, so may not get to the link).  I think Matsui believes he can play the OF as well.

Matsui may in fact be willing to take a one-year deal.  Or he could be going for one-last contract and thinking he wants a multi-year.  I’m not sure if I’d want to piss Damon off and then find Matsui not willing to back down from 2-years…

Probably just posturing, but:

Damon’s preference is to remain with the Yankees, and while he has made that wish well-known, sources close to the veteran say he isn’t about to give the Bombers a big discount to stay in pinstripes.

Although he’s told friends all season that he would take a shorter deal from the Yankees than he would elsewhere, it is believed that he would want a higher average annual salary if he were to take fewer years.

A source close to Damon said that the outfielder believes his statistics over the past two years have been good enough that unless the market crumbles entirely like it did last winter for Bobby Abreu, he doesn’t feel he should take a pay cut.

Okay, here’s a link to an NYTimes article.  Among other things, his dr. says Matsui should be able to play OF a few times a week, and mentions (not direct quote) that Matsui wants to play OF as well.  Sounds like he believes his knee is sound…

I think we’re getting too much afterglow on Matsui’s MVP performance.  CAIRO projects Matsui for a .346 wOBA and Damon for .339 (question: does this version of wOBA include SB?).

No.  Damon projects about a run better in terms of BR/650 PAs when you add in SB.  They’re effectively the same offensive player right now, even if the way they get there is different.

And yeah, Damon would probably project as below average, maybe -5.  Dunn would probably project at least a win worse than that.

[96] I’m not sure if that doctor is providing an unbiased medical opinion or is offering the best case scenario in the service of a <strike>client</strike> patient. But let’s assume for the sake of argument that Matsui can play a little OF in 2010. Cash may even believe that, but his negotiating stance may be contra because he wants to pay him as a DH.

Being physically able to play the OF, maybe.  Playing it half-decently?  No way.  I’d expect a Dunn-level horrorshow out there from HazMat.

He should not be allowed onto the field expect for absolutely emergency situations.  If some team is dumb enough to sign him for more than that, so be it.

Concur [99].

Matsui was already a freak show in LF before the incremental knee injury/surgeries.  Might as well get Dunn, it’ll be the same disaster, and Dunncan stay healthy.

I wouldn’t give Matsui more than 1/$8M, and that only after I exhausted my options to do better.

I’d rather have some combination of Holliday/Damon/Cameron/Dunn/Branyan/N Johnson.