I’ve also worked on fixing the mappings for all the players to their MLBAM ids, which is probably gibberish to 99% of you, but trust me, it was a pain in the ass.

I sporadically have to do that sort of thing for work. Different data sets, but I feel your pain.

“I’d expect his FIP to be closer to his ERA than vice versa”

What an odd metric space.  I mean, non-metric space.

These WAR projections are interesting:

Halladay 6.6
Sabathia 6.4
Vazquez 5.2
Linceum 5.4
Greinke 4.9
Lester 3.3
Felix 5.9
Verlander 4.6

I thought I fixed Lester’s playing time.  His projection is about 50 innings low, he should project closer to 4.3 WAR.  I’ll fix that and re-upload it.

[4] I’ve been wondering why the NYY-RS disparity was so large in the recent sim, given your earlier comments.  Guess that helps some.

Something is wrong.  Joba and Hughes the starters both project more than Joba and Hughes the relievers.

[3] I saw a large debate about Lincecum’s WAR projection elsewhere. I think he has had back to back (or “belly to belly”) 7+ WAR seasons (actually 7.5 and 8.2 according to fangraphs), but I guess it is quite rare for a 7+ WAR pitcher to repeat or improve his performance the next season.

So, some are assuming he has to comeback to earth, while others expect him to have another season close to 8 WAR.

[6] Formula not taking into account the dire importance of the third out in teh ate.

Sorted delta 2009/2010 WAR and delta WAR/150 lists would be a simple cross-check for the commentariat to check.

OK, I’ve uploaded a revised file that fixes Lester’s projected playing time, and moves a few more stragglers to their correct teams.

[4] I’ve been wondering why the NYY-RS disparity was so large in the recent sim, given your earlier comments.  Guess that helps some.

I need to see what the other projections say, but basically, CAIRO says the Yankee pitching plus defense is roughly equivalent to the Red Sox pitching plus defense.  It likes the Yankee pitching slightly better and the defense worse, but the net result (pitching + defense) is essentially the same.  So the difference (around forty runs/ four wins, which I’d dispute as being especially large) is almost entirely due to the Yankee offense projecting better in CAIRO.  Like I said, I’ll be interested to see what the other systems think.

Something is wrong.  Joba and Hughes the starters both project more than Joba and Hughes the relievers

[6] Formula not taking into account the dire importance of the third out in teh ate.

Right, once you add in the eighth inning factor (multiply WAR by about 20 to factor in the actual importance of the eighth), you’ll get a more accurate representation of where their value would be best leveraged.

Now I want the edit function…

“So the difference (around forty runs/ four wins, which I’d dispute as being especially large)”

I just thought from your earlier comments about the progress of the off-season that the difference would be perhaps a couple of games - maybe I misremembered or -read.

If I had to guess, I would probably have the Yankees 3 wins better than the Sox.  Something like 97-98 vs. 94-95.

So, I agree, 4 wins is not large.

I’m not at all impressed with the Red Sox offense.

From Lohud:

Wang’s agent, Alan Nero, told Ken Rosenthal: “We’re <strike>anticipating</strike> wishcasting a major-league offer with a substantial guarantee and substantial upside… We’re so <strike>confident</strike> delusional with what is going to happen, if we don’t do it until May, we’re OK. Whoever shows the initiative to take a little bit of risk is going to <strike>win</strike> be looking for a new job.”

Fixed.