“[...]/Ellsbury/[...] is a great defensive outfield.”

Fangraphs doesn’t much like his defense.

Sox have moved on from Bay and don’t seem to have much interest in Holliday. Run prevention is a fine strategy but I wonder if playing Cameron in LF in Fenway is a misallocation of his skill set (similar for Ellsbury)

The wall is going to cut off many of the defensive plays he otherwise could have made in left.

Bay was a poor fielder.  But I’m not sure if Cameron’s potential impact on runs saved is going to materialize in LF in fenway.

I hope cashman has a plan to replace Matsui and Damon.

The wall is going to cut off many of the defensive plays he otherwise could have made in left.

yeah I’m wondering about that too, although this may be a precursor to a Bubba Crosby moment.

The always entertaining halosheaven.com asks whether Lackey is a traitor. Shockingly, your choice is to only answer “Yes.”

I hadn’t read that the Angels make a comparable offer to Lackey.

[205]
That’s actually quote funny.

I’m guessing Falstaff is ok with the cutting of Wang (sorry, someone wanted more of those - and besides, if the joke was good enough for Shakespeare…)

quite

“While the Phillies have done next to no actual negotiating with Lee, they heard enough rumblings that Lee wanted a CC Sabathia-type contract that they believed it would take a five-year or six-year deal to keep the 31-year-old left-hander. And the Phillies have an organizational philosophy that precludes deals longer than three years for starting pitchers.”

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4742072

Philosophy or not, wouldn’t you think they would, like, ASK before putting together a blockbuster?

It looks like it’s still going to be a while before the dust settles on this one.  The Phillies got the M’s involved because the Jays kept insisting on Drabek, and they didn’t want to go there.  But now Salisbury is tweeting that Drabek is in fact in the deal.  Domonic Brown took a physical today, but now it’s said that he’s not going anywhere.  Happ and Blanton took physicals, and could be part of the deal.  Aumont is in, no he’s out, no…

This is great for baseball.  Heads are spinning on both coasts and everywhere in between, not to mention in a whole ‘nuther country to boot.  Yes, THIS is a blockbuster.

[205] You misspelled “trader”.

SG, if you have time, could you do a comparative projection on Halladay and Lee?

[211] I thought that was the sole prerogative of Boston and Johnny Damon. I even thought that was copyrighted for that context.

[210] Long live twitter!

I wonder if playing Cameron in LF in Fenway

I wouldn’t put much stock in reports about where Cameron or Ellsbury would play. I would bet the Sox haven’t said anything and maybe haven’t even made up their mind. Also, nobody puts this much effort into finding “undervalued assets” only to misallocate them.

Eh, Vasquez is a solid 3 starter who will give you a ton of innings.  He’s also a bit of head case who underperforms his peripherals every year.  He was admittedly spectacular this year with the Braves but at 33 its not like I expect it to continue.  Furthermore, he has only had 1 good year in the AL.
I’d like to have him at Andy Pettite money but I can’t get too torn up about his absence.

Well, Vasquez is under contract for one year at $11.5M right now, so when the Braves call Cashman (latern) to try and dump Lowe (3 years $45M remaining for age 37,38,39 seasons) he should change the subject to Javy. Well, actually he shouldn’t because I hope they head into the season with Joba and Hughes both in the rotation.

I’m not sure why The Angels can’t resign their players- LA is a rather large market after all.

Their endless quest for a team made up entirely of OFers? The apparently just signed a Zombie DH who thinks he can still play the OF.

How is that misallocation?  It seems like the argument about winning against a weaker schedule.  Should you lose to those teams?  Should Boston not bother with good defense there, simply because there’s less ‘territory to defend?’
Put differently - given the fielders they have, UUZR notwithstanding, Boston will be playing someone in left field next year.

Ted, I’ve noticed from the beginning that you’ve lost the first “n” in “(lantern).”  Why is that?

On the Blockbuster trade (brought to you by Blockbuster Video, if you want a much slower version of online dvd rental service, try BLOCK-BUSTER!), this pretty much guarantees Lee is a FA next off-season. I can’t see the M’s locking him up when they need to lock up Felix.

If the Sox have Lackey for 5 years, and do extend Hemp Necklace, that means they wouldn’t be a serious suitor for Lee. With Pettitte possibly done after next season, maybe the Yankees make a run at Lee next off-season? I can’t think of many other serious suitors willing to pay what it will take. He is best friends with CC. He seems like a pitcher likely to age well since he is more about control/location than velocity. Having LHP in DNYS is always a good idea.

any chance we get a post where we can discuss all the moves?

[217] I naturally spell “lantern” wrong all the time, but Firefox refuses to correct it when I spell it wrong. So, it’s an inside joke between me and my browser.

[220]
You’re beginning to make me think that RLY(NPHP)W doesn’t count as getting out enough.

[90] I might try Bradley if the Cubs ate substantially all of his contract, i.e. the Yankees are on the hook for no more than $2-3M p.a.  He needs to be eminently cutable if you hope to exercise any control.

Maybe give them Igawa and a C+ prospect for Bradley + $10M.

of we could always do the Kei Igawa package! (and this time it might work!)

Seeing that Matsui got 6.5 m , it seems that we need to revise our view that we can have these DHs for nearly nothing.

Bradley seems like someone that could work in NY, with enough big guys around to check him. he’s also the most capable fielders of the bunch of DHs (but you’d like to keep him from too many games out there for his health sake)

AP is now saying that the Phillies are getting Halladay for Blanton, Happ and Brown.  And working on a separate Lee trade.  Much less good for Toronto if true, I would think.  Also, not a BLOCKBUSTER!

Bradley seems like someone that could work in NY, with enough big guys around to check him.

There aren’t enough big guys to keep Milton Bradley in check in the known universe.  I used to be a big Bradley defender, but I’ve finally come to realize that the guy really is just flat out batshit crazy.  Plus, he’s owed a ton of money.

Stay away.  Stay very far away.

I think MC’s spot on.  I seem to recall similar discussions when Albert Joey Bell(e) was a potential pick-up.
Pathological insanity is not solved by good teammates (who have better things to do).
Fortunately, this doesn’t seem like Cashman’s kind of move.

I liked Cameron, but not for 2 years/$15. That’s what I’d like Damon for.

I hope he plays LF, if only to see what his UZR/ZR numbers look like there. The only two guys there with significant playing time have been Ramirez and Bay, right? It’d be interesting to see what kind of numbers Cameron puts up.

On Milton Bradley, there are two rules when it comes to crazy:

-Never give Crazy lots of money
-Never promise Crazy a baby

I liked Cameron, but not for 2 years/$15.

Agreed. I was on the Cameron train when it was one year < $8M. Two years is double the potential for him to fall off the cliff in his late 30s or fail another PED test. Just go get Holliday, backload the contract, and sign a cheap DH option (Cust, Thome, whoever).

RollingWave had a great point above, and I think the Cameron deal is bearing that out, as well - these guys so far are getting more money than we thought that they would. I mean, TWO YEARS for Mike Cameron? The guy couldn’t get a two year contract two years ago (it was a one year deal with a team option for the second year) and now he can? $6.5 for Matsui?

I liked Cameron, but not for 2 years/$15. That’s what I’d like Damon for.

To play worse defense and get no bump in numbers from DNYS?

Damon doesn’t really make sense. If we are going to get a LF get one that can play defense reasonably well. Damon can’t. If we are going to get a DH then get the best hitter available. Damon isn’t that. I have no idea why they keept focusing on him. They don’t need to try and sign a LF to play DH. That just seems… stupid. They have 5 OFer already all of which play defense better than Damon.  They don’t need roster flexibility out of the DH spot to have 6. That’s just overkill.

RollingWave had a great point above, and I think the Cameron deal is bearing that out, as well - these guys so far are getting more money than we thought that they would. I mean, TWO YEARS for Mike Cameron? The guy couldn’t get a two year contract two years ago (it was a one year deal with a team option for the second year) and now he can? $6.5 for Matsui?

Then that also means Damon is worth more.  Same equation, higher numbers.  Cameron makes more sense.

And Matsui for $6.5M is a good price.  Who would really be upset with that?

[228] “Just go get Holliday, backload the contract, and sign a cheap DH option (Cust, Thome, whoever). “

Agree 100%.

Matsui for $6.5M is pretty cheap, though.

To play worse defense and get no bump in numbers from DNYS?

I’ve certainly been educated on defensive metrics this offseason and learned not to use only the previous year’s data. Damon had a bad year by UZR in 2009 in LF, but a great year in in 2008 (in ~70% of the innings as compared to 2009.) All the data certainly needs to be considered.

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘get no bump in numbers.’ Damon’s bat certainly plays better in Yankee Stadium than Cameron’s… <insert overplayed joke about the media thinking YS is a bandbox here>.

If we are going to get a DH then get the best hitter available. Damon isn’t that.

Using Fangraphs wOBA, the only free agents (as of this morning, I guess) that project better are Holliday, Johnson, Bay, and Matsui, all of which come with associated bumps and bruises (injury history and contract value/length demands.)  When you consider all of that, don’t discount Damon’s entire career’s worth of defensive numbers outside of last year, and then put the pricetag that we’ve been discussing (2 years/$15M) is the number we’re discussing, he certainly seems like a perfectly logical option. FWIW, Jim Thome is not projected for some reason.

[233] Damon at 2/15 is easily one of the best, if not the best options for DH/LF (depending on what Cash does otherwise).  Damon reportedly wants 3/13 which, in my opinion, is Boras speak for 2/24 or somewhere in that neighborhood.  Are we ready to sign up for that? 

I’m on the Holliday train, but if Damon can be had on the cheap (2/15-18) and Holliday wants Teix money, then by all means sign JD.  I’m more interested in the DH position myself.  Nick Johnson would really fit in well with this lineup.  Any lineup really, but I’m starting to wonder if he’s willing to be a full time DH.  Doesn’t seem likely.  Matsui “wants to play OF” and he just got a 1/6.5 deal.  I imagine he would have been worth Cameron money+ had he been capable of fielding a position.

[234]  Where exactly is Holliday getting Tex money?

I think Holliday will get, maximum, 6/120.  For $20M p.a., I’d rather have Holliday than pay Damon $12M p.a.

I for one will sleep well tonight, knowing that ted does not want to have Milton Bradley’s baby.

I’m not sure that there is a contract with $20m AAV for Holliday. Supposedly, the Cards won’t go that high, and I think they could make the highest non-Yankee offer.

[237]  Even better.  5/90 would be a steal.

I’ve certainly been educated on defensive metrics this offseason and learned not to use only the previous year’s data. Damon had a bad year by UZR in 2009 in LF, but a great year in in 2008 (in ~70% of the innings as compared to 2009.) All the data certainly needs to be considered.

Ok.  Consider all the data you want and make the case Damon is a better fielder than Cameron.

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘get no bump in numbers.’ Damon’s bat certainly plays better in Yankee Stadium than Cameron’s… <insert overplayed joke about the media thinking YS is a bandbox here>.

I mean that Damon has been playing in YS for the last 4 years.  Cameron has been playing in pitchers parks.  Looking at their road numbers for the last 3 years Cameron is a flat out better hitter.  Now he won’t get as big as a bump at home as Damon but he will still get a bump and overall he will most likely be as good if not better. 

Better to very similar offense.  Better defense.

Using Fangraphs wOBA, the only free agents (as of this morning, I guess) that project better are Holliday, Johnson, Bay, and Matsui, all of which come with associated bumps and bruises (injury history and contract value/length demands.) When you consider all of that, don’t discount Damon’s entire career’s worth of defensive numbers outside of last year, and then put the pricetag that we’ve been discussing (2 years/$15M) is the number we’re discussing, he certainly seems like a perfectly logical option. FWIW, Jim Thome is not projected for some reason.

Except Damon hasn’t agreed to a $15/2 deal.  Cameron has.  Matsui has agreed to a $6.5/1 and asked the Yankees to make the same offer.  You can’t say Damon can be had for that price. 

The problem I have with Holliday is that unless they increase payroll significantly (instead of decreasing it like they have been doing) it’s going to be very hard to add a larger contract unless they let Jeter or Mo walk until Posada’s contract is up.  Holliday is good but he is not an elite player.

[237]Holliday at $18 per (5/90 or 6/105) is about my guess.  It depends how much Bay gets, I think.  If I’m Cash, I don’t want the Mets to set the market with a 5/75 deal for Bay like they probably will. 

[235] As for Damon vs. Holliday, I agree, but that’s not really a contest.  Although $20 per is high, even by Yankee standards.  Damon just isn’t worth 2/24 at this stage in his career.  Definitely see what the “DH types” are looking for and make an offer to Damon accordingly.

Does one really need to look at UZR data to see that Damon can’t track a flyball very well?

If you want to rely on UZR, however, look at Damon’s trendlines.

Matsui has agreed to a $6.5/1 and asked the Yankees to make the same offer. 

Link?  I missed this one.

[239] “Holliday is good but he is not an elite player. “

Fangraphs has Holliday has 15th in wRC (basically park & league adjusted wOBA) and 13th in value among position players.

That may not be “elite” but it’s pretty damn close.

The problem I have with Holliday is that unless they increase payroll significantly (instead of decreasing it like they have been doing) it’s going to be very hard to add a larger contract unless they let Jeter or Mo walk until Posada’s contract is up.

I thought that too for a while, but the more I think about it, I’m not sure there will be as many good choices as was once thought. Halladay is off the table. I’d rather have Holliday than Crawford. If you need room to sign, for example, Mauer (although I think he will be extended by the Twins), you can backload Holliday’s contract (maybe Jeter’s too) and trade Swisher.

[242] - http://twitter.com/nyp_joelsherman/statuses/6671899317

[245] They really need to forget about Damon.

They really need to forget about Damon.

Exactly.  How much further do the Damon issues need to be exhausted?  You are two years and $5M/year off.  Neither is budging.  At that poin they should have walked away and pressured him with other deals.  Damon and Cameron should have been the ones they were calling. 

This was the perfect storm for Damon.  Now those other deals that would kill him to the Yankees are almost all gone.  Matsui, Halladay, Cameron, and Lackey are all off the market within 6 hours of each other (not that I wanted Halladay or Lackey).  Now Damon has a much better position.

247 should read Matsui and Cameron should have been the ones they were calling.  They could have landed them both for a touch more than what Damon wanted.

They have 5 OFer already all of which play defense better than Damon.  They don’t need roster flexibility out of the DH spot to have 6.

Actually 6 OFers since their UIF can play the OF too. So, DH would make 7, which is uber-overkill.

If we are going to get a DH then get the best hitter available. Damon isn’t that.

Using Fangraphs wOBA, the only free agents (as of this morning, I guess) that project better are Holliday, Johnson, Bay, and Matsui.

You don’t have to sell use on Nick Johnson, he had us at hello.

Holliday is good but he is not an elite player.

In addition to what snapper listed, there is the whole he has more WAR in the past five years than Teix and is likely available at significantly lower cost at a position of long-term need. As for the “lowering payroll”, again just backload the contract so he isn’t killing them salary-wise in 2010 and 2011, and when his salary increases in 2012 hopefully they will be saving a ton of money at catcher by replacing Posada with Jesus of Scranton-Wilkes Barre.

[248] Unless Matsui is going to change his name to Nick, grow a cheesy mustache, and skyrocket his OBP, he isn’t the DH they should have been calling.

Unless Matsui is going to change his name to Nick, grow a cheesy mustache, and skyrocket his OBP, he isn’t the DH they should have been calling.

Unless they were choosing between Matsui and Damon, which seems to be at least the partial import of Sherman’s tweet (posted at 245).

[249] - I agree about Teix but he was a contract that was a little more necessary than Holliday.  They can put out a very good offense without Holliday and there were no Cameron like options out there last year for less than half the price as an alternative. 

[250] - Nick can still play a defensive position so I’m assuming he is going to cost more and generate more interest than a true DH only option.

[252]
By much, do you think?  Nick Johnson is the poster boy for getting hurt all the time.  Whenever anyone around baseball talks about injury proclivity, he (and everyone else) thinks: like Nick Johnson!
Would anyone really sign him relying upon him to play the field?  Will he really get much more monetary credit for that (so very often theoretical) ability?

Maybe I’m wrong about Nick’s price, and if I am I’ll gladly take him on the Yankees.  That was just my guy feeling on what he’d go for. 

Either way, then they could have had Cameron and Nick for a touch more than what Damon was asking for.  They would still much better off (and I haven’t heard the Cameron deal was agreed on yet, just “close” so maybe there is still hope).

I don’t know why anyone would think that Nick “I’ve been on the DL at least once in every year of my career” Johnson will cost more than Hideki “World Series MVP” Matsui.  I’m sure he wants a multi-year deal, and I’m sure he doesn’t think of himself as a pure DH, but what he wants and how he think of himself aren’t nearly as important as what GMs want and how they think of him.

Cameron is a nice player.  I’ve always liked him, and I’m not happy about him going to Boston.  But due to handedness and his relatively lower OBP, he doesn’t fit the Yankees nearly as well as Damon did.

They can put out a very good offense without Holliday and there were no Cameron like options out there last year for less than half the price as an alternative.

Was Cameron really comparable to Holliday? Cameron is 7 years older and has been suspended for PED use in the past. I know he is an alternative in LF to Holliday, but is 2 years for a 37 year old really a better idea than 6 years for a 30 year old?

Nick can still play a defensive position so I’m assuming he is going to cost more and generate more interest than a true DH only option.

If by “play” you mean stand near 1B and injury himself in the process, then sure he can still play a defensive position. He seems perfectly built for DH - injury prone so being a DH reduces that risk or the harm done if he does get hurt, insanely high OBP, and power.

[255] And if signing Cameron means the Sox don’t get Holliday, and potentially allows the Yankees to do so at a reduced cost with the Sox out of the bidding, then I am all for that move.