[90] I might try Bradley if the Cubs ate substantially all of his contract, i.e. the Yankees are on the hook for no more than $2-3M p.a.  He needs to be eminently cutable if you hope to exercise any control.

Maybe give them Igawa and a C+ prospect for Bradley + $10M.

I agree with SSF re: the positive revisionist view of Jason Giambi.  Most notably, I think 1B defense is hard to properly quantify.  The Yankee infield improved substantially in large part due to Teix.  Anyone who couldn’t see a vast defensive difference between Teix and Giambi weren’t watching.  The contract wasn’t awful but I think it was poor.

[93]
There’s not “yankeeland” thing here, SSF.
The numbers were run on this site a number of times and I was surprised to see how well the G contract turned out.  And a number of others’.
Not Pavano’s.

Anyone else see Neyer put up a list of top 100 players from 2000-2009?  He put Posada 15th (top catcher, next two are Mauer and IRod, in 40th and 41st).  He had this to say:

Among the nine catchers with at least 4,000 plate appearances during the 0’s, Posada is No. 1 in on-base percentage and slugging percentage and also tops in homers (by a lot) and walks (ditto).

He’s had a dozen years consistently being one of the top 3 catchers in baseball, I wonder how many more he needs for the Hall?  To me his magic number is 2000 hits and 300HR.  Every catcher that has accomplished both of those feats is either in, or will be in.  Neither is assured for Posada, but both are in reach.

103: I will defer somewhat on the numbers, as you can tell from my posts my SABRmetrics intellectual growth came to a cold stop about 2001. But I also trolled this site pretty regularly during Giambi’s tenure and only his last year seemed to make people feel at all good about his ever having donned pinstripes.

[105]
Of course, you’re right that it wasn’t what people had hoped, but it wasn’t a financial disaster.

Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com says that the Phillies are negotiating an extension with Halladay.  If it was the Yankees, everybody would be screaming “tampering!”

Increasing speculation that Lee gets traded, apparently because he’s not interested in giving a home town discount to a team he’s been with for half a season.  The nerve of that man.

Lee to TOR? At least we know he’ll hit the market in 11 months.

The numbers were run on this site a number of times and I was surprised to see how well the G contract turned out.

FanGraphs has Giambi “earning” $76.1, and getting paid $114.8.  Unfortunately, that’s pretty bad.  He out-earned the contract in 3 of the first 4 years though - really, 2004 and 2007 killed his value, but I’m not sure how insurance policies work (and he was on the DL quite a bit), so possibly the Yankees recouped some of that salary paid?

Also, Dave Cameron had a good article discussing the marginal value of a win.  So for example, Giambi’s wins may have been more valuable to the Yankees than they would have been to an “average” team.

[108]

Anaheim would be the obvious place, since they were the other major Halladay suitor.

[109]
Mike K., I admit that this corresponds to my ‘uncalculated’ perception.  Perhaps my recollection of the numbers run here is inaccurate.

Yeah, when I looked at the Giambi contract I had him earning $90M, not $76.1M.  Still an overpay, but not an awful one.

The Jason Giambi Contract in Hindsight. 

For defense I used ZR instead of UZR, which could be part of the difference there.  It could also be differences in how replacement level or positional adjustments were calculated.

Looks like it’s 6.5MM for 1 year for Matsui and the Angels.

[113] Is that deal final?

Not yet but they’re reportedly very close to signing.

Angels offering Matsui only 6.5? Surely Yankees can match that, right?

If he gets only 6.5, I am reasonably confident that Matsui will earn that salary as a DH.

Happy trails, Hideki.

Olney seems to think the Lackey thing is a done deal, too:

With John Lackey coming off the board, next best starting pitcher is Joel Pineiro—and the Cubs would like to make a deal. We’ll see.

[116] I don’t think the Yankees ever had any serious interest in Matsui, or Damon for that matter.  I’m interested to see what the plan is.

Holliday and DH (cheap) is the most obvious.  Or it could be something else.

I gotta think Cashman would have offered him $6.5M… right?

[120] Doesn’t look that way.

Apparently he wanted to sign quickly, and the Yankees have the DH spot down on their to-do list, after pitching and LF.  Plus, Hideki apparently wants to play the field some, which the Yankees are smart enough to forbid.

I’ll miss his bat.

“when I looked at the Giambi contract I had him earning $90M”

That was through half the last season of the contract, too.

[119] If the Yankees really want to stay under 190MM for the payroll I don’t think they can sign Holliday and adequately address their other problems. They still need a back up pitcher and a DH and I’d like to see them take a look at Capps. Altogether that’s a decent chunk of change.

I want Holliday, but are the Yankees willing to pay for him?

Wow, lots more parts moving today than I would have expected.

Busy, of course it all probably happens later this week, but it will be interesting to see what the various contracts look like.

[124] What makes you think they’re staying under $190M?  That would mean they were almost done now; they are at $187.5M as per Cots plus the arb guys and renewals.

I think last year’s payroll $205M) is a much more likely budget, and I doubt it’s a hard cap.

They could fit Holliday and a cheap DH into that by backloading Holliday’s deal.

Oof. I could handle Abreu as an Angel, but Matsui playing for that blasted team might be too much.

I believe Frog said it all on Jack Cust:

“Jack Cust non-tendered.  Wow, really, maybe he’d be a good, cheap DH candidate?  Well, his OPS+ has trended downward significantly over the last 3 seasons.  Smarmy remark from someone.  Yes, but he might mash at DNYS.  Offended reaction to smarmy remark.  Demand for statistical evidence.  Apology.  RLYW in-joke.

Pass on Cust.”

Lots of stuff from Olney today:

No deal close in Yankees/Damon talks. Contrary to what is being said, there have been talks; JD has made it clear he doesn’t want a pay cut.

“JD has made it clear he doesn’t want a pay cut. “

Yeah.  Good luck with that.

ESP reporting Lackey gets 5 years and Boston offered $15mil for Chapman

ESP reporting

That’s one way to get the news.

As good a source as anything of Heyman’s.

Does the 3 way trade with Hallady and Lee count as a legitimate blockbuster?

Wow. Lots of stuff to talk about now.

Yanks are third team.  They got Lee for IPK +.

Wait, what?  Oh.  Never mind.

If it goes through you have to pick the Mariners to win the west right? That’s a scary good 1/2 with the King and Lee.

Lackey to Boston, Halladay to Philly and Lee to Seattle would be everything I hoped for.  No more temptation to waste resources on getting more SPs.

Get me Holliday Cashman!

[111 and 112] I actually expected it to be closer than it was.  I think a lot of the difference is actually in how much they value a win.  For 2002 it looks like SG has a win being worth ~$3.73M, FanGraphs is ~$2.59M.  That was Giambi’s best year as a Yankee, and w/o going through every year I also think the biggest per-win $$ difference.  I didn’t mean posting that to be final say or anything, just a data-point.  The biggest things for how close Giambi was to “earning” his contract is probably how valuable you think a win was to the Yankees in each year.

[124 & 127]  There have been a lot of #‘s thrown around for Yankee payroll.  The one that seems to have stuck most is “under $200M”.  They can afford Holliday and still stay under (or around that), either by trading a player (Melky obviously makes the most sense from Yankee perspective), and/or playing some tricks w/ the finances.  E.g. if Holliday is 5/90 pay him $12M in the first year, 18 second, 20 each of the next 3.  I still think they won’t do much of anything until after the New Year though, unless Holliday does something like say, “I really want to play in NY, give me 5/75”.

Holy crap, Lee to Seattle? Presumably for several kids. So much for once bitten, twice shy. But hey, Cliff Lee and another year of Jake Locker in the same day? FX McCrorys will be swinging tonight.

Halladay on the Phillies is a recipe for a couple more Cy Young Awards.  He might win 25 games next year.

[138] Seattle still has the worst offense in MLB, even with Figgins.  Their 3/4/5 hitters right now are Guttierez/Griffey/Lopez.

[141] 3 way trade, Phillies get Halladay, Seattle gets Lee and I assume Toronto gets a nice haul of prospects/MLB ready players.

I gotta think Cashman would have offered him $6.5M… right?

If he wanted him, yeah.

Apparently the Lee to Seattle part was Heyman jumping the gun.  Still supposedly a three way and Seattle is the third team, but not clear who goes where (except Halladay, of course).

Ah, this makes more sense. Instead of Lee to Seattle, it’s Vicente Padilla for the M’s top four prospects. Now I get it.

[145] It doesn’t make sense for Lee to go anywhere but the third team. Why would Toronto or the Phillies do a Halladay for Lee swap?

SG what kind WAR would Conor Jackson put up in the Bronx as the left fielder?  I know he is coming back from Valley Fever but he did play well last month in the DWL?

[147]  Lee could stay in Philly and other parts (Blanton?) go to Seattle to free salary.  Seems less likely than Lee though.

Who said anything about a Halladay for Lee swap?  But maybe Lee just isn’t going anywhere?  It’s almost certainly got to be somebody good and not cheap going to Seattle.  It just doesn’t have to be Cliff Lee.

[150] There’s a bunch of articles up saying it’s Halladay and Lee. But details beyond that are sketchy. Nothing has been confirmed at all, but Halladay and Lee make the most sense unless the Phils are moving someone like Hamels or Happ as a small package.

Philly should try and get Aardsma in the deal.  Don’t want to make Halladay throw 25 CGs to get his 20 Ws.

So what kind of prospects do Phillies and Seattle have?

I can’t imagine Seattle parting ways with Dustin Ackley. That would be lunacy. So, who are their other notable prospects?

As for Phillies, maybe they now part with a couple of guys that they were not willing to part before? I am guessing Kyle Drabek has to be part of this deal to make any sense for Toronto.

[152] Aardsma would be be worse than Lidge in Citizens Bank.

[153] Seattle can’t trade Ackley until next June.

There’s a bunch of articles up saying it’s Halladay and Lee.

And those articles are all basically “reporting” Heyman’s tweet, which he subsequently backed off of.  Now he’s back to saying “all signs point to Lee winding up in Seattle.”  Sounds like there’s still a bit of uncertainty and the negotiations have reached a point where the usual leakers don’t have time to waste leaking.

Funny line in the SI-com article—“The Mariners have been looking for an ace.”  Wonder if they ever thought to look at that Hernandez kid.

[155] Ok, so that is out of the way.

Now, I see that THT has Michael Saunders and Carlos Tirunfel are their top two prospects. I think one of those two have to be involved, along with another one. And Phillies will have to give up two as well, and maybe gets back a prospect from M’s, given that they see this as a straight Halladay for Lee swap, and to give up prospects, they need to get back prospects.

Seems like that is a good haul, if Toronto gets it.

[156]—“The Mariners have been looking for an ace.” Wonder if they ever thought to look at that Hernandez kid.

C’mon, everbody knows they’re going to flip him to Boston for Westmoreland and Kelly.

[158]
Kelly is untradeable.
Besides, he’s worth more than FH, straight up, no?

Yeah, I guess an ERA of 2.49 isn’t an ace.

Westmoreland is off the table too. But we can do Manny Delcarmen and Daniel Bard. Well, maybe just one of them.

[Hey, if you’re going to indulge in pure fantasy, might as well indulge for both sides of the deal.]

Heyman reporting the Lackey thing makes me more than a little concerned that it’s bullshit. Somewhere in someone’s archives is a statement from Heyman announcing the Sox signing Teixeira, trading for A-Rod, and getting a third strike on Gary Carter in 1986.

[161] I thought it was Peter Gammons that traded Alex Rodriguez to the Red Sox.

162: so awesome

From Heyman:

“Halladay wanted to be in Philadelphia, as the Phillies train in Clearwater, Fla., not far from his offseason home.”

That’s a joke, right? Does anyone choose a team on this basis, besides part-time roving instructors?

Deal seems more official now, although who is going where aside from Lee and Halladay is still unconfirmed.

The Lee part is confirmed now?

Seems to be, at least something not based on a tweet:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10523430/Sources:-Jays,-Phils-talk-Halladay-Lee-blockbuster

I get that RH is better and projects better than CL.  But this deal somehow doesn’t make sense to me.  I mean, CL is the Phils’ best pitcher, right?  How many additional games does RH help them win, really?  Isn’t this the difference between a pitcher who wins a complete game shutout versus a pitcher who goes eight and gives up one?

What losing looks like—currently running in the Seattle Times:

What would be the bigger story in Seattle?
Cliff Lee to the Mariners
Jake Locker returns to the Dawgs

I clicked out without answering. On a more promising note, USS Mariner seems to have crashed, presumably because smarter people than the Times understand the significance of the deal and are looking to find some real fucking news.

Fgas, the only thing I can think of is that the Phils have given up on extending Lee. So it’s about after 2010.

[168] I agree, doesn’t make that much sense to me, especially if they have to give up anything significant outside of Lee.

Jonny Gomes- how is his D?  He may be an interesting Jack Cust type DH/LF option if Matsui and Damon walk and Holliday is not an option.  The guy crushes LHP so it could bolster the offense if he DH’s or plays LF when Granderson sits.

I think the Phillies basically view Halladay as being THAT much better than Lee, and when you factor in Halladay’s apparent willingness to sign an extension versus Lee’s desire to test the open market, the difference between Halladay and Lee, plus the extension, plus Toronto kicking in some money to pay for Halladay’s 09 salary then the Phillies basically felt it was worth one top prospect (apparently Michael Taylor).

Meanwhile, Michael Taylor, Brandon Morrow, Phillipe Aumont and Michael Saunders is a very good haul for Halladay plus cash, if that is, indeed, the deal.

However, it’s odd that the Mariners just didn’t try to get Halladay themselves with Taylor, Morrow and Aumont.

Sorry, I meant to write Saunders, not Taylor.

Oh, I forgot, Halladay has the no trade clause. That’s likely why.

174: good Q. Maybe Doc didn’t want to go west? Or they value Lee higher so they can have the lefty-righty thing going with Felix?

Can’t wait to hear some real news.

3 years, $60 million reported extension (vesting option up to 2 years).

Not bad.

THAT’S IT?

Makes me think the Yankees should have been in…although who knows what Toronto was asking from the Yanks, and what Halladay would ask from the Yanks.

[179] I saw that too.. $20M/year is not bad, and if the options vest, you’ve got to figure that means he’s worth it anyway.

That said, I’m glad they sent him to another league. I really didn’t want to give up any of the prospects it would have taken to get him.

TOR can’t trade him to NYY. They’re just cutting their own throats.

Even with Hughes/Joba, with THAT extension it would still have been a very, very good deal. $20mill/year!  What are the chances, barring injury, that he’s not worth significantly more than that over the length of the deal?
Montero, though, is key.  He’s really Mauer insurance, if you get my point, which is very, very difficult to come by.

Yeah, that makes sense for the Phillies to throw in a good prospect for such a reasonable deal for Halladay.

Wait, ESPN is now reporting that the Phillies are actually getting prospects from Seattle, as well.

We really, really need to learn who the prospects are and where they’re going. Inform us, media!!

I wonder if any bloggers are really pissed that the Yankees didn’t trade their overhyped up young starters and their potential future catcher who won’t be able to play the position at the MLB level? Oh, wait.

He’s really Mauer insurance, if you get my point,

That Mauer to the Sox in 2011 is inevitable? Yes, I hear you. What can I say, winners get together…

[182] “Even with Hughes/Joba, with THAT extension it would still have been a very, very good deal. $20mill/year! “

Yeah, but Phillie is giving up Cliff Lee, plus an elite prospect (probably Taylor) and another prospect (D’Arnaud).

Lee + Taylor >>> Montero + Hughes

This is fun.

Why the hell did Seattle resign Griffey if they were trying to put things together to make a run at it in 2010?

Griffey: no clear LF’er, especially if they move Saunders. No alternative at DH. He’s cheap and he sells tickets. And cutting him would be like the Yankees cutting Mattingly. You don’t do it; you find him something to do until he retires.

SG what kind WAR would Conor Jackson put up in the Bronx as the left fielder?  I know he is coming back from Valley Fever but he did play well last month in the DWL?

He doesn’t project real well, although last year we know he had the Valley Fever thing.  His baseline as a Yankee LF would be something like .262/.347/.409, which would be about 14 runs better than a replacement level LF offensively if he got 650 PAs.  Zone rating and UZR see him as a -4/-3 defender in LF over a full season, so he’d be around 1.0 WAR in LF.  If he could hit his 80% projection(.284/.375/.466) he’d be worth an extra 20 runs/2 wins, but the odds of that happening are only 20%.

FWIW, Melky would project about 6 runs better than a replacement level LF offensively but would also probably project to be 5-10 runs better defensively, so he’d essentially project to be about as valuable as Jackson overall.

Matsui’s deal is official.

“Valley Fever”

Google shows this is an actual disease and not as I first surmised some joke that went over my head about him going out with a valley girl.

I thought it was a reference to a minor league park factor..

The Sox apparently have signed Cameron for two years.

This sounds like they’re definitely going for run prevention - Cameron/Ellsbury/Drew is a great defensive outfield.

I hope they don’t do something stupid with Damon.

They need to sign Holliday.

Cameron—this is done? I am just seeing rumors of talks.

Lee + Taylor >>> Montero + Hughes

For 2009? Sure. Longterm, it figures to be a lot closer.

Losing Bay and adding Scutaro, Lackey and Cameron likely makes the Sox a better team next year.

So yeah, I think the Yankees probably need to make one more move to make the same claim, but they certainly WILL be making more moves, so I’m not too worried yet (and I don’t think they “need” Holliday - but boy would he be great!).

MLBTR has Cameron playing right, or left, or center.

Why not all three?  I believe Cameron is the best outfielder ever by UUZR*.  Then you can play a guy right in front of home to guard against the bunt and protect the plate in case of wild pitches, and have a “training wheels” guy in between Youkilis and Scutaro.

Now this is what’s called looking for areas where the market is undervalued.  I learned it from John Henry, the puppetmaster who makes Warren Buffet speak.

* Ultimate Ultimate GaZparini Rating