As if you needed to see CAIRO to see who the best reliever in baseball is…

Yes, we can clearly add Papelbon’s 1.9 to the extra 3 wins he gets for his intimidation factor and get the obvious result.

CC + Roy wouldn’t be a bad little 1-2 punch…

CC, Burnett and Vasquez wouldn’t be bad either. I’m still pissed that we traded him.

Only 1 OF in the top 20 by BRAR.  That seems anomalously low.

My computer asserts that the zip file is “invalid or corrupted.”

j - I had the exact same thought. 

Damon’s defense is projected at -1?  If I actually believed that, I’d want Damon back more than I do (lukewarm at the moment).

CC, Burnett and Vasquez wouldn’t be bad either. I’m still pissed that we traded him.

Eh, Vasquez is a solid 3 starter who will give you a ton of innings.  He’s also a bit of head case who underperforms his peripherals every year.  He was admittedly spectacular this year with the Braves but at 33 its not like I expect it to continue.  Furthermore, he has only had 1 good year in the AL.
I’d like to have him at Andy Pettite money but I can’t get too torn up about his absence.

Only 1 OF in the top 20 by BRAR.  That seems anomalously low.

Well, part of that is the position adjustment, but it also looks like offensive performance is concentrated at 1B/3B right now.  Looking at the top 20 offensive players in terms of batting runs per 650 PAs (not position-adjusted) I see:

1B: 8
3B: 5
LF: 4
2B: 1
SS: 1
C: 1

I need to fix Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun’s positions, although that doesn’t change the counts.

My computer asserts that the zip file is “invalid or corrupted.”

Hmm, I was able to download it and extract it just now. Maybe try downloading it again?

Damon’s defense is projected at -1?  If I actually believed that, I’d want Damon back more than I do (lukewarm at the moment).

By UZR, two of the last 3 years he’s been a very-good defensive LF.  Tough to look at just last year and say he’s this bad now.  The problem is what are your other options, and how much are you willing to bet?  Like w/ starting pitching, I don’t think the Yankees are in any hurry.  If a deal makes sense - whether big-money for Holliday, a fair contract for Damon, or a cheap deal for someone else like Cameron - they’ll do it.  But I think Cashman believes they can win w/ Melky in LF and Miranda as DH, and isn’t willing to make a huge deal for minimal upgrade.

[5] I would have taken what he’s done since 2005 for what we got when we traded him and what we had to see run out there pretty much ever year since this last one.

[9] I agree but thats hindsight.  At the time, Randy Johson was coming off of some massive seasons down in AZ and the propsects included didn’t really amount to much.  Don’t forget Johnson was much better than Vazquez in 2005 and about the same in 2006.
The real trade I’d like back since we’re on this meme is sending Juan Rivera and Nick Johnson for Vazquez in the first place.

SG - I bet it doesn’t play well with our corporate firewall/security.  I tried it twice.  No big deal.

D.J. Mitchell with a very nice projection.

Rob, email me through the site and I can send it try to email it to you if you want.

D.J. Mitchell with a very nice projection.

Is he an actual prospect?

Wow, Bay projects worse than I thought.  Are his numbers any better if you don’t use Boston as his home park?

Matt Holliday turns 30 on 01/15/2010, looks like you need to revise your numbers a little….

Is he an actual prospect?

Yeah. Fastball with average velocity but insane sink, as evidenced by the ridiculous homer and groundball rates. Solid curve that he picked up during his time in the Yankee system, said to be developing nicely. Change-up is his third pitch and a work in progress. Good control, command. Can’t think of a good comp off the top of my head. Mid-rotation ceiling.

Are his numbers any better if you don’t use Boston as his home park?

Actually, his offense would be worse almost anywhere else since Fenway boosts offense pretty significantly.

So Alex Rodriguez is among the 5 players in MLB with a wOBA above .395. The other 4 are Pujols, Mauer, Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. So he projects slightly better than Hanley on a rate basis. That is impressive.

CAIRO is also extremely bullish on Shin-Soo Choo, in fact more bullish than Bill James. Is he that good?

Boston needs offense, Youkstah looks like their best offensive player, followed by a reasonably good David Ortiz. Jack Cust looks like he could be a pretty good DH for someone at decent cost. Cano projects to be the third best Yankee hitter, after Asteroid and Teix.

Steep regression for Jeter. I am hoping he beats that handily. I also think Justin Upton will obliterate that projection.

The worst Yankee position players sans LF in terms of wOBA is Granderson at 0.347. That is unbelievable. If they can get a decent LF, they are locked and loaded in terms of offense.

CAIRO also seems to have some irrational love for Jonathan Lucroy and Jon Knott. I think our resident Jonathan has something to do with that.

Matt Holliday turns 30 on 01/15/2010, looks like you need to revise your numbers a little….

It’s a rounding issue in how his age is displayed.  Age is calculated as 7/1/2010 - DOB, which makes Holliday’s age 30.5 and shows him as 31, even though the system treats him as a 30 year old.

CAIRO is also extremely bullish on Shin-Soo Choo, in fact more bullish than Bill James. Is he that good?

I don’t like the fact that it’s more optimistic than James for anyone.  I’ll look at the Lucroy and Knott projections, there could be bugs in their MLEs or something.

Lackey supposedly taking a physical for the Red Sox.  Isn’t it unusual for a player to take a physical before agreeing to terms (much less before an offer has been made)?

And Lowell may need surgery on his thumb.

Isn’t it unusual for a player to take a physical before agreeing to terms (much less before an offer has been made)?

Can’t say I follow when players do medicals closely enough to say for sure.  Generally speaking you hear stuff like, “contract agreed to, pending physical”.  I’m sure I’ve heard stuff about teams requesting medical *records* on players they are thinking of signing.  So it probably isn’t unheard of for teams to request a physical of a player there are some concerns with.  Though as you say, probably unusual.

The more I think about it, the less I want Damon back…

I agree, but I can live with it for one year. For two years, it’s beyond idiotic.

SG, Franklin Gutierrez is listed as a LF as a hitter, and RF as a defender for ZR, and a CF for UZR. I think, for now, he should be considered a CF.

Yeah, I will move Gutierrez to CF for his hitter projection, but the defensive projections are fine.  I have everyone’s projections for each position they’ve played separated.  Gutierrez should have a projection for all three OF positions in both ZR and UZR.

I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a player taking a physical before an offer has been agreed to, let alone an offer even being made.

It’s reasonable to think that the RS and Lackey have an agreement in principle.

Supposedly the deal with Lackey is similar to AJ’s.

So… based on Holliday’s WAR (WARs?), what is he worth a year… especially to a team that he might help make/win in the PS?

Lackey’s career performance in Fenway, if I’m reading Baseball Ref accurately, isn’t impressive.
Not a huge sample size, of course.

Holliday’s probably around a 4 WAR player right now, but we should probably project some decline going forward.  Depends on the contract length, but something like 5 years/$85M or 6 years/$100M would be a close approximation of his projected worth going forward.

[27] Based on what?  The tweet about the physical was the first thing out there.  The rest of it is Rosenthal speculating that the physical means a deal is imminent, and further speculating that the deal is similar to Burnett’s.

Anyone know Boston’s projected 2010 payroll? Can’t access Cot’s at work.

[32]
Rosenthal actually suggests in an article that this is exactly what the physical probably means.

If the socks sign Lackey, which would be at least onomastically appropriate, wouldn’t the Angels be reduced to (i) going all in for Halladay, or (ii) rebuilding?

On the other hand, by signing Lackey, could the socks could be securing sufficient pitching depth to include Mr. Laptop in a trade for Halladay?

[32] How do you read this sentence?

Free-agent right-hander John Lackey underwent a physical Monday with the Red Sox, an indication that he is close to an agreement with the team, according to a major-league source.

Is the source saying that it’s an indication that there’s a deal, or is Rosenthal saying it? I think the latter, but I’m not sure.

Anyway, it’s pretty unusual for the Red Sox to sign a high profile FA without weeks of media churn first.  Maybe in this case the media churn will come afterwards, as in the normal time it takes to finalize contract details being spun into something horrible coming up in the physical.

(i) going all in for Halladay, or (ii) rebuilding?

They could always sign 3 more outfielders.

[32] Why would a player expose himself to the risks of a physical, especially a pitcher with past elbow issues, if it isn’t a condition precedent to contractual agreement?

[35] I read it as Rosenthal saying it, but that may be just because I’m exceedingly jaded about his recent career as a rumor-monger.  There was a time when he was actually a baseball writer, and not half bad either.

[34] In that division, rebuilding isn’t hard.

I don’t see a scenario where the Red Sox would pay for both Halladay and Lackey, especially not without finding a LF and 3B or 1B. 

This is good news to me, because it means the Red Sox probably won’t go for Halladay, and it also probably means the Yankees will have less need to trade for him now.  Lackey’s a good pitcher, but he still doesn’t make the Red Sox better than the Yankees.

[33] Cot’s has Boston at ~$108M for 14 players for 2010.

[33]  $108,778,333   for 2010, but it includes Lowell’s salary but not Hermida’s, among other unresolved issues.

[40] The final piece of that is for the Mets or Cardinals to sign Holliday, forcing the Red Sox to sign Bay for closer to his terms than theirs.

Media churn.  Onomastic.  Wang jokes?

And I agree with SG’s take.  I’m actually kind of hoping this is true.

The RS could trade Bucholz for a bat.

On the other hand, by signing Lackey, could the socks could be securing sufficient pitching depth to include Mr. Laptop in a trade for Halladay?

? I’m not sure why having more pitchers would make a pitcher-for-pitcher swap any more enticing?  I could see that extra depth allowing Boston to trade Laptop for a position player (e.g. Gonzalez), but…perhaps I’m not reading your question correctly?

includes Lowell’s salary

Which they will reportedly pay 75% of even if the trade does go through.

So, Lackey to BOS takes them out of the Halladay market.  That means the Yankees won’t care that much, and he’ll likely end up in LAA.

I think this clears the Yankees to go get Holliday.  6/100 sounds about right, SG.

BTW, any idea why your projections are so down on Holliday?  He seems to have been a 5.5-6.5 WAR player in the recent past.

Your defense numbers have him pretty strong, but you’ve onl got a .371 wOBA/833 OPS.  That’s a lot of regression from a .390/909 season.

Not a Wang joke, Frog, but another NYA-related joke did occur to me:
“Yuri Sucart” is the answer to what famous Texas-related question?
A: “Who shot A.R.?”

BTW, any idea why your projections are so down on Holliday?

I need to recheck how I translated his stats, especially Coors, because I think his projections are low too.  Between Coors and switching leagues, I may have overadjusted him too much downwards.

Rosenthal also reminded me that Lackey was type A and declined arbitration.

[47]
Mike K., I still think it works.  If the RS are worried about pitching depth and Toronto is worried about salary control and age.  RS getting Halladay but giving up Lappy may seem like a swap of depth for top-end talent, but with Lacky on board for 5 years, the depth issue is removed.

[51] I think so.

I would have expected a wOBA in the .385-.390 range, both OAK and STL have been playing as slight pitchers parks.

SG, how would CAIRO project Lackey at as a red sock?

Lackey makes the overrated laptop kid “ace” expendable.

FWIW, CHONE has him at an .883 OPS for next year.  Not sure of the wOBA…I also believe they have him at ~4.8 WAR; I think the R150 is over average so I’m adding 20 runs to that.  Using that, Bay would be 3.7 WAR.  Fans projections on FanGraphs has .913OPS/.395wOBA, 5.8 WAR.

If Yanks sign him I hope the fans are right.  If Boston signs him I hope CAIRO is

So what would the Yankees current roster project to do next year?  Assuming Melky/Gardner in left, Miranda at DH, and a CC-AJ-Pettitte-Joba-Hughes rotation, etc.  This information would seem to add some important context to our roster-construction discussions.

And boy do I find Halladay’s 7 projected WAR tempting.  Those are worth about $30-35M, no?

SG, how would CAIRO project Lackey at as a red sock?

176 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.1 WAR.  Pretty similar to Burnett actually.

[58]  I’d rather have Holliday’s 5-6 WAR and keep Montero and Hughes, thank you very much.

So what would the Yankees current roster project to do next year?  Assuming Melky/Gardner in left, Miranda at DH, and a CC-AJ-Pettitte-Joba-Hughes rotation, etc.  This information would seem to add some important context to our roster-construction discussions.

Yeah, I am working on that already.  Should go up in the next few days.

[53] From Toronto’s standpoint it makes perfect sense.  I just think from the Sox standpoint being willing to trade Buccholz shouldn’t matter, at least not by itself.  Now if it is Bucky Laptop (I like that one) *and* a couple of other pitchers on their depth chart, then I can see having Lackey making it easier for Sox to trade for Halladay.  Perhaps that is what you are getting at.

The MSM often seems to look over the fact that teams are only willing to trade so much depth.  For example, a number of times I’ve seen IPK referred to as, “the guy the Yankees wouldn’t part with to get Santana”, which is of course ridiculous.  If Twins wanted IPK instead of Hughes, Yankees would have gladly done it.  But it was Hughes AND IPK that was the problem, since that would have meant probably Igawa as the #5 starter in April.  It’s rarely a good idea to fill one whole by opening another…

Thank you, SG.

Red Sox won’t pay both Lackey and Halladay.

Red Sox won’t pay both Lackey and Halladay.

and Bay/Holliday and whoever they get to play 1st or 3rd.

So what would the Yankees current roster project to do next year?

I’ve been doing that on FanGraphs, where you can put together “your” team, and see what the Fan projections are.  The seven settled starters for the Yanks, offense+defense (not counting catcher, not counting baserunning), add up to 34.1 WAR.  The 5 starters + Mo add up to 19.4 WAR.  So that has the Yankees at about a 101 win team, if they get replacement-level from LF, DH, the bench, and the rest of the bullpen.

CAIRO will probably be more pessimistic (perhaps more realistic) than the fans, but I’d have to think adding it all up you’d probably have something like 95-98 wins.  Now we’ll see if SG confirms my prognistication, or beats me down…

not counting catcher *defense*

Anybody have any thoughts on Jack Cust as a cheap DH, if we go expensive (i.e. Holliday in LF)?

Yeah, I am working on that already.  Should go up in the next few days.

Thanks SG!

What do we think is the over/under on the Yankees current projected win total for 2010?  96?

Totally based on anecdotal evidence, I’d much rather Lackey than Burnett, even when the pies are taken into consideration.  I’m not sure why The Angels can’t resign their players- LA is a rather large market after all.  Maybe they’re gearing up for Halladay but I suspect and hope Philly is gonna get him…

[68] If Cust can bounce back to 2007 or 2008 he’d be a great signing. He still walks plenty but his Ks have risen and his power took a pretty big dip last year. in 2007 he had an OBP over .400 this past year .356 (i think) and a stop at about .375 in between.

If the Yankees think they can get him back to 2008 form then by all means sign him, otherwise he’s just a slightly above average hitter.

[70] Lackey is more likely to perform evenly, but I think he’s a much larger injury risk than Burnett. But Lackey is the superior pitcher.

[71] I agree with all of that.  I’m thinking that for $2M or so, you take a shot.  If he bounces back you get a 120-130 OPS+ bat for basically free, if not, you can alway cut him and get an upgrade at the deadline.

I’d certainly rather spend $20M on Holliday/Cust ($18M/$2M) than $20M on Damon/Matsui ($12M/$8M).

[73] Even if the commitment for the latter is only 2 years?

[74] 2 years between the two of them or two years each?

Personally, although I don’t think Damon is as bad a fielder as he showed in 2009 I have no desire to see him flopping around the outfield in 2011. Any by that time Matsui will be batting with 2 bats, so that he can use them as walking sticks when rounding the bases.

[74] Yup.

I don’t think they’ll need to go 7 or 8 years on Holliday.  I think 6 gets it done at ~$100-110M.

He’s athletic enough that I think he’ll be fine through his mid-30’s.  I also like the defensive upgrade in LF.

And the long-term commitment will be to Holliday, which I think is perfectly justifiable.
Also, don’t forget payroll creep - a few years down the line, the locked-in big salaries won’t be as big in relative terms.  Happens to all the big contracts - remember how reasonable even Giambi ended up.

64: spot on. No way do the Sox move Buchholz for Halladay. They still have to pay Beckett (one rumor has a deal in the works), so they need Buchholz and his minimal salary more than ever.

Personally, I am of the belief that Bay is out of the Sox’ plans. My favorite idea has them sign Cameron and give him and Hermida 3-400 PAs next year, in part to see if Hermida can break out. And if he doesn’t, then you have to break the bank or swing a big trade. But if they believe he has big talent, they need to take a look at what he can do. Or toss him in a deal for Gonzales.

$110m for Holliday… glad it’s you guys (in this made-up scenario) and not us. I dunno, he just doesn’t do it for me.

[75] 2 years each.

[79] Aren’t you sort of staring into the abyss trying to replace Bay’s production? What other options (either single player or roster mix up) are out there besides Holliday?

Uh-oh!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SG, radical revision in the projections - apparently Kate and A-Rod have split.
Time for a rebuilding phase?  Sorry, SSF - a “bridge” phase?

D’oh. I should have read [78].

81: Holliday is an option, but if it sounds like the Sox and Yanks will end up battling it out, then it really isn’t an option.

I think the concept is to replace Bay’s production at first with run prevention (improved D and pitching), and then see what the possibilities are later for offense. Since they were 3rd in the AL last year, it’s not like they’re starting with nothing. But what can you do? Throw insane contracts at guys who don’t really fit? Timing obviously matters, like how the Yankees freed up a ton of money and needed two starters and a 1b, just when Tex, CC and Burnett hit the market. No such luck here. We need a LF and a cornerman. And there are no options out there like Teixeira, where you just know your investment is gonna work out.

[80] 2 years of Damon and Matsui at $20M total, could be very, very ugly.

If Damon’s defensive decline is real, you could be looking at a $20M zombie DH platoon.

MUCH, MUCH rather have Holliday for 6 years, and cheap filler at DH.

Godzilla talking to angels. Sucks to be an Angels fan.

I wonder if the A-Rod break up related to Tiger’s shenanigans?  I’m glad it happened after the WS and I hope The-anti-Jessica-Simpson doesn’t start dating a RedSock.

Why is Bedard’s name not coming up?  What do we think he’s worth- 3 years $36M?

Bedard… my guess is he’s stuck in line behind Sheets and Harden. Well, Harden signed. So if you want an injured guy, next you kick the tires on Sheets. Just a guess.

Posts are appearing out of order.

[83] isn’t right - when it was written, [78] wasn’t on the board.

Similarly, [87] appeared AFTER [88].

Odd.

Also, what do you think of Milton Bradley?  I know he’s nuts but The Yankee clubhouse has plenty of strong personalities who can keep him in check.  The guy crushes LHP so with him in LF perhaps Melky (or Hoffman) can play CF against tough LHP.  Oh, and Jesus can DH.

[90] Nuts and expensive. I’d prefer one or the other, but not both.

I’m sure the Cubs would pay some of Bradley’s contract.  As far as Bedard, I was looking at his ERA+ and WAR and neglected his injury history.  Perhaps he’s worth a flier but not for the money I referenced.  I do remember how he dominated the AL East only a few years ago.

Happens to all the big contracts - remember how reasonable even Giambi ended up.

Not really. Maybe in Yankeeland. Wasn’t it $17mil/yr or more? And he was only above 1.000 OPS in the first year? and below .900 in three of them? And his defense sucked?

I’m not trying to be a jerk about it, but I would be horrified if the Sox were on the hook for that much. Manny is our worst example, but he had only one truly overpaid season, if you think $20mil is about right for a guy whose OPS is .980 or above.

“Similarly, [87] appeared AFTER [88].”

That might be an effect of the site’s infectious ignoring.  I fairly often don’t see my own comments because (I assume) someone who ignores me has loaded the page.

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/6670932032

Looks like Matsui is closer to a deal with the Angels than we thought.

I’d love to get Bedard on a deal similar to Harden’s.
1 yr 7.5M with an option sounds about right.
3/36 is crazy for a guy with his injury history.

Yeah, j is responding to a #90 that isn’t appearing for me right now.  It’ll be fixed, eventually.

Bedard was bad in Seattle, rarely making it out of the 5th with ridiculous pitch counts. 17.5p/in last yr. Pretty poor walk rate, and the k/bb dropped off considerably. Not a good sign, considering the park effects too. But then, it’s hard to say what a healthier Bedard could’ve done.

96: That feels about right. 1yr no matter what; club option on #2 if he comes back strong.

Compared to Jack Cust, Hidkei Matsui runs the bases like Rickey Henderson.