2.4 mph = to be expected difference in fastball velocity for starting vs relieving
2.8 mph = irreversible shoulder injury

Cut fastball (starter): 93.3     84.8     88.1
Cut fastball (reliever):  94.0     86.4     89.6

I wonder about the top range there, but also the mean - Mo’s cutter is about 92?  How does the latter’s 4-seam velocity compare?

I guess the max values above represent either misclassified fb or a long asymmetric upper tail?

Also interesting that his slider is slighter slower in mean and min but a good deal in max - maybe the classification issue again.

I look forward to Joba and Hughes in the rotation next year.

Now, Cashman, don’t do something stupid and overpay for a veteran starter.

[1] I don’t know what the expected difference is, but in Hughes’s case he pitched better out of the pen so some of the increase might just be correlated to better mechanics.

If there is a silver lining in Hughes’s struggles in the playoffs, it may be that the knee-jerk segment of the fanbase and the MSM won’t cite any sign of difficulty he experiences as a starter as a reason why he was meant to be a reliever.

I have as much confidence in Hughes’s future as a starter as anyone, but I would like to see him throw a change-up a little more often.

[4] It does make sense, less innings = fewer chances for mechanics to go out of whack. Or less innings = less fatigue and a smaller chance of fatigue throwing mechanics out of whack. Both of those formulas are of course POOMA.

[3]  But but but Jason Marquis is a proven winner!

[7] And the Brewers are practically GIVING AWAY Suppan! He has WS experience!!

[6] That’s true, but I was just thinking that maybe he or Eiland figured something out around the time he went to the pen, and the team didn’t want to mess with a good thing.

I would love to see the yanks land chapman to go with hughes and joba as the most talented back-end of a rotation in the league.

[10] It sounds like Chapman will need seasoning in the minors, so even if they signed him, I doubt they count on him to be in the majors at all next season.

Still need to retain Pettitte to fill out the rotation.

Anyway, Hughes as a starter is probably going to need to use more sliders and changeups to offset the likely decline in the value of his fastball, but I’m confident he’ll be able to do that.

I had thought Hughes didn’t throw a slider any more.  Possibly Pitch-F/X classifying some cutters as sliders?  Or are there just too many sliders for that to be possible?  FWIW, FanGraphs doesn’t have Hughes throwing any sliders in 2009.

Anyway, even if he really does have 5 pitches, I don’t know if he *needs* to use any more of his least-used two.  That gets to the argument if he’s better off using 3 kick-ass pitches - assuming he can improve a little on each of those 3 - or using four or five pitches that are a little less effective each?  I think there are plenty of effective starting pitchers w/ FB similar to Hughes who are essentially 3-pitch pitchers.

Not that I’m saying it wouldn’t be nice if he can get that change-up to be a plus-pitch.  Just that maybe w/ 4+ pitches he’s Mike Mussina (#1/#2 for 15 years), with 3 pitches he’s…righty Andy Pettitte (#2/#3 for 15 years)?  I’ll take the latter, though I drool over the former.

[1] The decrease in Joba’s velocity is apples-to-apples.  Velo as starter pre-injury vs. Velo as starter post-injury, and Velo as reliever pre/post… same thing.  A clear drop.  Which, while hardly unprecedented, is cause for some concern.

Hughes showed a normal velo bump when switching roles (though of course there is always the case of the missing velocity with him as well, as he was touted as a guy who threw 94+ consistently as a starter, and we’ve basically never seen that).

[1] I don’t recall anyone saying the shoulder injury was irreversible.  Also, when he came back from the shoulder injury as a reliever in 2008, Chamberlain did not show the “expected” bullpen uptick in velocity but rather a slight loss.

Velocity aside, what has made Hughes’s FB a plus pitch is its late life.

I want both on the pen. I know that you think I’m stupid and I’m not ruling that out, but just listen the 2 reasons why I think Joba and Hughes belong to the pen. The first one is that both of them pitch significantly better out of the pen and on a sample size not that small. They are completely different pitchers out of the pen and starting.Second, I think both can pitch close to 100 innings out of the pen, instead of 200 starting, but they will pitch high leverage innsituation. Then pitching half the innings doesn’t hurt that much if they pitch important innings.

Having Hughes, Joba and Mariano to pitch around 270 innings could be Hughes if we give those innings more value because of the leverage.

[13 & 14] I took [1] as a shot at the MSM, not at anyone here.

[15] I think as much as the other two, better control as well.  Previously he was unable (or unwilling) to challenge hitters early in the count w/ the FB.  Recently, he’s been throwing strike-one, strike-two, which allows him to either elevate the FB to get the out or go to his hammer-curve, or cutter.

[16]

1) Every SP would be much better in the pen.  Not having to pace yourself gives you a velocity bump, and you can use only your two best pitches.  You could use the same argument for putting CC and AJ in the pen too.

2) Neither would pitch close to 100 innings.  Given modern setup usage, that would require 90 Gs and would destroy their arms. 100 IP in relief was only possible in the old multi-inning usage, and still tended to fry guys arms.

3) An averagish SP, 180 IP, 100 ERA+ is as valuable as a good closer.  Setup men don’t get nearly the leverage, so are much less valuable.
Joba and Hughes could each pitch like Mariano in 70 IP (they won’t) and still be less valuable than giving you 180 IP at a 4.00 ERA in the rotation.

This really is a no brainer.  Both need to start until they prove they physically can’t handle it, either from a health or success perspective.  They need to be in the rotation from day 1 for all of 2010 and 2011.

Velocity aside, what has made Hughes’s FB a plus pitch is its late life.

And what made him suck as a starter last year was that his fastball was straighter than an arrow.  Change in grip/mechanics or just playing up out of the pen?  I sure hope its the former.

Put another way, there is not a single RP in baseball that you could not acquire in a trade for Hughes or Joba.  Every GM in baseball would give you his closer, and the money to pay their contract, for either guy.

That’s an idea of how much value you’d be destroying by making them RPs.

This really is a no brainer.  Both need to start until they prove they physically can’t handle it, either from a health or success perspective.  They need to be in the rotation from day 1 for all of 2010 and 2011.

Exactly.  I had originally given a much more long-winded response to this but decided not to.  By FanGraphs, the most valuable relief pitcher last year in the AL was Matt Thornton, worth 2.5 WAR.  About the same as Kevin Millwood, who if the Yankees signed would be a 3rd/4th starter (depending on if they signed Pettitte). 

Hughes/Joba should both be able to approach that value as starters, saving the Yankees $$ they could instead use towards LF or DH.  And it’s not like they don’t have anyone to handle the 7th/8th innings, as Robertson has earned that chance, and you have to feel good about Marte.  Then w/ those guys no longer in the pre-7th roles, you can give meaningful, low-leverage innings to guys like Coke (who could develop further or build trade value) and Melancon.

Not only to develop Hughes and Chamberlain, but to get into the business of developing as much of the pitching staff as possible from within, it is important they start.  And of course the bonus side-effect - if the only Yankee reliever who hasn’t spent his whole career with the Yankees is Marte, and if they’re getting a lot of innings from Joba/Hughes, maybe we can stop hearing how the Yankees never develop talent?

[16] The first one is that both of them pitch significantly better out of the pen and on a sample size not that small.

You really can’t much better than Joba did as a starter from June 3-August 4 2008, so your point is not accurate.

They should start, but I would be stunned if we got 180 IP, 4.00 ERA from one of them, let alone both. Though SG will probably eventually tell us how likely that is.

I had thought Hughes didn’t throw a slider any more.  Possibly Pitch-F/X classifying some cutters as sliders?

That’s certainly possible.  They track three fields called ‘break_y’,‘break_angle’ and ‘break_length’.  According to this site they are defined as:

The quantity break_length is the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory. The quantity break_y is the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs. The quantity break_angle is the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively; a break_angle of 0 is a pitch with no horizontal break and is typical of a straight fastball. Most pitches will have a break_angle between about -50o and +50o. An angle greater than 90o in absolute value is almost impossible, since that would imply an upward break, defeating gravity (the myth of the “rising fastball”).

Here are the averages for both

<u>slider</u>:
break_y: 23.8
break_angle: -9.2
break_length: 6.3
avg_start_speed: 88.7

<u>cut fastball</u>
break_y: 23.8
break_angle: -6.6
break_length: 5.3
avg_start_speed: 89.6

Pretty similar in just about every respect.  It could be classifying slower cutters as sliders, or there could be a slight distinction there.  I’d lean towards the former.

The first one is that both of them pitch significantly better out of the pen and on a sample size not that small. They are completely different pitchers out of the pen and starting.

This is definitely true.  It’s also true for probably 99.99999999% of every pitcher in MLB.  C.C. Sabathia would be a great reliever.  A.J. Burnett as well.  The point is not ‘Pitcher A is better as a reliever, so he should relieve.’  The point is ‘Pitcher A would be more valuable as a starter because even though he will not be as good on a rate basis, he will provide more innings at a better rate than his alternatives would if he is kept in the bullpen.’

Right now, if you put Hughes and Chamberlain in the pen, who are your fourth and fifth starters?  Until you can answer that question AND demonstrate why it would make the Yankee pitching staff better, you shouldn’t even propose either Hughes or Chamberlain in the bullpen as an option.

Second, I think both can pitch close to 100 innings out of the pen, instead of 200 starting, but they will pitch high leverage innsituation. Then pitching half the innings doesn’t hurt that much if they pitch important innings.

You can certainly think that, but you’re wrong.  Look at the leverage index for relievers.  Even closers are rarely higher than 1.5.  If you’re not a closer, you’re probably more in the 1 - 1.2 range.  So you have to pitch at least 80% of the innings you’d pitch as a starter to have similar value.

If you think Hughes and Joba can be the equivalent of 1973-1974 Mike Marshall, then not putting them in the pen would be monumentally stupid.  But I’d bet a good sum of money they can’t be, which means it’s not stupid.  It’s smart.

[23] Assuming for the sake of argument that’s true in 2010. I don’t think it would also be the case in 2011 and beyond.

[24] Pretty similar in just about every respect.  It could be classifying slower cutters as sliders, or there could be a slight distinction there.  I’d lean towards the former.

I can’t find the quote, but I can recall CC being asked after the game about the effectiveness of his slider, and his response was that he was throwing cutters.

Wasn’t Phil’s best secondary pitch his slider when they drafted him?  Or was it his curve?  I can’t remember; I just remember hearing that they were making him lay off his slider to protect his young arm and make him develop other pitches.

Help me out here.

If they were curtailing the slider, is it time to unleash the beast?

[27] My recollection is that they scrapped his slider in favor of teaching him a curve - which turned out pretty well.

About the same as Kevin Millwood, who if the Yankees signed would be a 3rd/4th starter (depending on if they signed Pettitte).

Millwood is available?  Do it, Cash!  He’s a proven veteran and can get Joba back to the pen!

[23] Chamberlain gave you 180 of 4.75 ERA, why would 180 IP of 4.00 ERA be “shocking”?  He certainly has shown streaks of that type of pitching.  He just needs to be more consistent.  As of Aug 16, he was at 126.2 IP with an ERA of 3.98.  I’d argue that if they had just let him pitch in August instead of protecting him, you would have gotten 180 IP with an ERA pretty damn close to 4.00.

Edit: 157 IP of 4.75 ERA.

[30] And as [22] noted if Joba goes on a tear at any point similar to how he pitched when he first started in the ML that will drastically push his ERA down. I’d be willing to bet on ~4.00 ERA from Joba providing he stays healthy. Hell, I’d bet on it from Hughes, he really was pitching pretty decently as a starter excepting that one start against Baltimore.

Further complicating things, Hughes threw a big slow curve at some point and they had him switch to a harder one - or maybe it was a knuckle (spike?) curve originally.  (Did Mussina hold the ball on his curve like AJ does?)  Maybe the power curve is the slider?

I recall reading that Hughes once threw a slider but the Yankees had him scrap it for the curve (which is a nifty pitch).  At this point, I don’t know that he can suddenly throw the slider again - he hasn’t thrown it in years.

Hughes right now throws a 4-seam fastball, cut fastball, curveball, and the occasional changeup (or am I imagining that?).  I think he needs to work on the change to get lefties out, but what do I know?

Me still feel goodly about the 2009 season. Me loves these reviews. Me has nothing else to say.

When is the next complaint thread scheduled for?

[34] With all those options it really does seem like Hughes has a chance to be very similar to Mussina. Hypothetically he has 2 curves, a cutter, a slider and a change up to go with his fastball. It’s doubtful that he ever uses all of those pitches and certainly not in the same game, but if the slider still exists and he can still throw that slow curve, that’s a lot of options he has.

Re: Hughes’s pitch selection (to the best I remember)...

Yes, Hughes out of HS threw a slider.  If you recall, he had some minor injuries that shelved him a few times early in his career (low minors).  I think the Yankees scrapped the slider then b/c it was (thought to be) more stressful on the arm.  I think he always had the curve, but they improved it from an “other” pitch to one of his better pitches.

Yes, Hughes used to have more of a 12-6 curve, but (I think) that was more susceptible to hanging, so they taught him the tighter curve which he has better control of.

Yes, Hughes has had a change-up since the minors.  I think he mostly abandoned it when he went to the bullpen.  It has been acknowledged as the weakest in his repertoire.  I don’t know if he *needs* it to get lefties out.  Oh, it would be useful.  But that’s what the cutter is for; a pitch that cuts in on their hands.  Again, maybe the difference is w/ 3 pitches he’s just very good for a long time and w/ 4 he’s great for a long time.  Conversely, if he tries to use a 4th that isn’t effective, perhaps he’s only mediocre for several years.

Don’t take me wrong as to my personal postion on the old and tired argument about starting and relieving, but for those of you who want BOTH Joba and Phil back in the rotation, this question.  Who will the pitchers be in the pen that provide the stability that Hughes in particular offered in 2009?  It seems that the single move of putting Hughes in the pen seemed to mirror the teams move toward consistency and dominance.  I fear that issue will raise its ugly head once again and do any of you think for a moment that given the 2009 outcome that Girardi wouldn’t turn to the same playbook again?  My belief is that they will try hard to get one more starter.  I think that its possible though but not as likely that they could wait until midseason to make an addition after giving Joba and Phil one more chance to be starters.

To be clear, my guess above is that they will count on one or the other capturing a starting spot. I’m not predicting that both will be failures and head to the pen, but the more likely scenario is that the rotation will be CC, AJ, AP, a new starter, and either PH or JC.

I know that you think I’m stupid and I’m not ruling that out…

Oh, I think we can rule out stupid.  Crazy OTOH…

If you think Hughes and Joba can be the equivalent of 1973-1974 Mike Marshall…

I think Hughes and Chamberlain could be the equivalent of 1973 Mike Marshall.  That’s Hughes and Chamberlain combined of course.  1974 Mike Marshall never really happened.  Just like the moon landings, it was all staged in a secret TV studio in a remote Nevada desert.

[38] If moving Hughes to the BP is the reason this team started playing well and won the World Series. I will eat every article of clothing and every pair of shoes I own. I have about 5 pairs of spikes. That’s a lot of plastic and metal.

I fear that issue will raise its ugly head once again and do any of you think for a moment that given the 2009 outcome that Girardi wouldn’t turn to the same playbook again?

I think if this were Joe Torre around 2004-2006 it would be a concern.  But Girardi and Cashman seem to work together on this, and I think if the decision is to put Joba and Phil in the rotation to start the season the only thing that will get them out of that is 1) Joba/Phil injury 2) Joba/Phil ineffectiveness.  Honestly, if both of them are regularly going 6IP/3ER or so, it lessens the strain on the pen a lot.

Who will the pitchers be in the pen that provide the stability that Hughes in particular offered in 2009?

Robertson.  I think he’s shown he can handle it.  Marte’s a tough call.  September was the first time I think he was healthy since the Yanks got him.  September he was so-so (I think shaking off some rust), and other than 2 batters in October lights out.  *I* think we’ll get closer to the Marte who was excellent in the pen for many years than what we saw the first two half-seasons.  So there are two guys right there.  Aceves I think will be fine as a #4.  A lot of people don’t like Coke, but if he’s a #5 out of the pen, is it really that bad?  I’d match him up with the #5 out of anyone else’s bullpen, and come out at least equal.

Short term it probably is a benefit to the club if Hughes/Joba are in the rotation, unless Pettitte comes back AND they can get Lackey or better for low enough cost they can still fill LF/DH.  Long-term it benefits the club even more.

Who will the pitchers be in the pen that provide the stability that Hughes in particular offered in 2009?

Robertson and Marte.

It seems that the single move of putting Hughes in the pen seemed to mirror the teams move toward consistency and dominance.

Sure, but we have to remember that it was basically a complete accident, and we also have to remember that Hughes likely never would have had the chance to grow into that role if Bruney and Marte had been healthy all year.  Serendipity like that is a big part of what makes a long baseball season interesting, and this particular bit of serendipity was a big part of what made the 2009 Yankee season so enjoyable (not to mention successful).  But serendipity can’t be planned, sort of by definition.

“Who will the pitchers be in the pen that provide the stability that Hughes in particular offered in 2009?”

Rivera, Robertson, Marte, Melancon, Aceves, Coke sounds like a pretty nice pen to me.  Plus you have a bunch of other live arms in the minors.

You know I think a lot of the time we get caught up in the myth of how much our bullpen saved us, or in particular how much one *pitcher* in the pen saved us. (Besides Mo of course; he cures disease just by being in the room)

In particular, 2007.  Joba often gets credited with “saving the season” and I’ve read/heard about, “See how important he was to that team!  That’s why he HAS to be in the bullpen!”  2007 Yankees actually allowed about a half-run MORE per game in the second half (Joba came up on August 7th) than they did in the first half.  However, they scored about 1.2 runs more per game in the second half than the first.  So there’s Joba, come out of nowhere, hurling lightening-bolts in to the catcher, but the reason the Yankees rallied by going 51-25 down the stretch had MUCH more to do with their offense than Joba.

“Who will the pitchers be in the pen that provide the stability that Hughes in particular offered in 2009?”

Rivera, Robertson, Marte, Melancon, Aceves, Coke sounds like a pretty nice pen to me.  Plus you have a bunch of other live arms in the minors.

Can’t believe y’all missed the most obvious. IPK pitch teh ate.

Can’t believe y’all missed the most obvious. IPK pitch teh ate.

I figured that was obvious if they are having bullpen issues.  Either a reliever in the minors will be deserving of a callup (one of Dunn, Kroenke, Whelan, or even Alby), or IPK will get the call.  And then they’ll (hopefully) go through the same thing with IPK they did w/ Hughes and Joba.  He pitches well in the bullpen, Yankees claim he will slot in as the 5th starter in 2011 (Pettitte retires, Joba/Phil reliable), and we’ll hear how stupid the Yankees are.  Wash, rinse, repeat.

I’m betting that its at least 50/50 that either Joba and Hughes will be in the pen for most of next year.  Not saying that’s my preference.  As for the list I vote yea for all except Coke, I hope we can find a better 2nd lefty then him.

[48] I really don’t think so. I think they both start the season in the rotation. The Yankees know that if they want both starting long term they need to start now as well. The plan in 2009 was to have them both start, granted Hughes was starting in AAA, but unless there are performance issues I think both stay in the rotation the entire year.

George King has become a comedian:

Acquiring Tigers center fielder and left-handed hitter Curtis Granderson is an intriguing option, even if it means parting with Joba Chamberlain.

[50] What do you mean, “has become…”  King hasn’t been anything but comic relief for pretty much his entire career.

[49] I could see Hughes starting the year in the pen if somebody like Aceves or Gaudin has a really great ST.  Hopefully, it would only last a month and would pre-empt a whole summer of Hughes innings limit lamentations.

[51] OK, I could see them going the 2009 Joba route with Hughes next year. He’d transition sooner though, I’d imagine.

Oops, 2008.

“I could see Hughes starting the year in the pen if somebody like Aceves or Gaudin has a really great ST.”

Say Aceves is pitching 6.2 IP/start with a 3.84 ERA and equivalent peripherals after a month, and the rest of the staff is doing well - how does Hughes get back in the rotation?

That’s a nice problem to have. Worry about that then. Hughes definitely has the ability to be better than Aceves and Gaudin, if they are pitching better so be it, but the chances of that are not great.

Say Aceves is pitching 6.2 IP/start with a 3.84 ERA and equivalent peripherals after a month, and the rest of the staff is doing well - how does Hughes get back in the rotation?

Injuries.  If the Yankees don’t get another starting pitcher, they will have IPK and spare parts as depth, which isn’t actually too bad, but might become a problem.

Or say Andy isn’t pitching well - say 5.00 ERA - does he go to the pen for the rest of the year or anyway until Aceves/Hughes/Joba falter?

Let’s be realistic.  Aceves won’t pitch that well for much more than a month.

Or somebody else in the rotation will get a little owie and Hughes will step in for that guy and when that guy returns, Aceves transitions back to the pen.

“Injuries”

I’m just not looking forward to a situation where Hughes is pitching great in the pen and gets shuffled to the rotation and back when CC is out for a few weeks with a mild bicep strain or AJ has to miss a few starts and thus never gets established as a primary starter himself.  But ok, that’s in part about not wanting to hear from the media and other move-strong-young-starters-to-the-pen enthusiasts.

Apparently I need to remind myself that the evil of the day is sufficient unto the day thereof.

[56] “If the Yankees don’t get another starting pitcher, they will have IPK and spare parts as depth”

Assuming Pettitte is back, you’d have CC/AJ/Andy/Joba/Hughes as the top 5.

Gaudin is still under team control, and I assume he’s the long man in the pen.  They’ll probably also bring back Mitre, to start in AAA.

IPK/Gaudin/Mitre as 5-7 SP is not bad at all.  Better than Boston’s depth.

They’ll probably also bring back Mitre, to start in AAA.

They’ll have to get him through waivers, which shouldn’t be a problem but you never know.

Better than Boston’s depth.

Blasphemer!

IPK/Gaudin/Mitre as 5-7 SP is not bad at all.  Better than Boston’s depth.

That makes IPK/Gaudin/Mitre all future HOF then right?

8-9 would also be McCallister/Nova, even if they don’t sign another veteran for AAA, and not counting Aceves.  So yes, if the Yankees have injuries to 4 starting pitchers at the same time they’ll be in trouble…

[62] They just turned down his option. Cashman will probably try to sign him to a split contract.

They’ll have to get him through waivers, which shouldn’t be a problem but you never know.

Or decline the option and sign him to an MiL deal.  But yeah, I think they’ll pick up the option and then outright him.

[64] Also, apparently he’s still under Yankee control and arbitration eligible.

Is Wakefield expected back for the RS?

Never mind, google says he signed a two-year contract for $5, maybe with incentives up to another $5.

[66] And if so, then he still has to clear waivers to be outrighted to AAA.

[67] He re-signed at terms even more favorable to the team than his previous contract.

[67]  Yes, just signed a 2 year deal.  He’s their 5th starter.

Right now they have Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Matsuzaka/Wakefield with Masterson and Tazawa as depth.

I like our rotation better.

Now go get me Matt Holliday, Mike Cameron, or Adam Dunn.

[51] My bad.

Right now they have Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Matsuzaka/Wakefield with Masterson and Tazawa as depth.

Someone should probably let Cleveland know about Masterson.

[72] Damn! I always confuse him and Bowden.

“Matsuzaka”

Is there a simple plausible explanation of his 2009 season?

Came into the season out of shape and got the hell beat out of him for it. Plus was a bit unlucky, karma for his incredibly lucky 2008?

““Matsuzaka”

Is there a simple plausible explanation of his 2009 season? “

Besides injury, you can’t succed in MLB very long with a BB rate of 5/9.

Is there a simple plausible explanation of his 2009 season?

I thought most people blamed the WBC and the related extra work causing fatigue?  If you take away his first two starts (12.79 ERA), he had a 4.92 in the other 10.  That’s not very good, but it’s certainly within the ballpark of a reasonable range for a 4.00 ERA pitcher over 10 starts.  Last year was a fluke, I think there were only two or three pitchers to ever have an ERA under 3 with a BB rate as high as Matsuzaka’s over 150 innings. His FIP was over 4, and I think no projection system had him with an ERA under 4 this year except probably Bill James who likely had him at 2.5 or so.

Also, his 2008 and 2009 velocity numbers were pretty close.  Only the fastball showed as down slightly (91.8 to 91.0).

Actually, you can get away with a BB rate of 5/9 when your hit rate is 7/9 and your HR rate is 0.5/9; not so much when the hits go up to 12/9 and the HRs to 1.2/9.

2008 obviously was a fluke, but a WHIP of 1.3 is a WHIP of 1.3, whether it’s 5 walks and 7 hits or 3 walks and 9 hits.

“2008 obviously was a fluke, but a WHIP of 1.3 is a WHIP of 1.3, whether it’s 5 walks and 7 hits or 3 walks and 9 hits”

My question is how many guys can sustain that hit rate with that poor control?  Nolan Ryan sure.  But my guess is, if you have terrible command, you’re generally going to leave a lot of pitches over the plate, and get hit hard.

My guess is that Matsuzaka doesn’t in fact have terrible command, but simply doesn’t like to throw strikes.  When I’ve seen him pitch, he often seems to just give up and walk a guy when he falls behind in the count, rather than give in a let the guy hit something fat.  He doesn’t seem to throw an excessive number of pitches in the middle of the zone. 

Completely POOMA, but I get the impression that the strike zone may be bigger or the hitters less selective in Japan (or some of both) and he’s either slow to adjust or thinks he’s better off not adjusting.

[77] except probably Bill James who likely had him at 2.5 or so. I love these zingers.

I think in Japan they also frown on strikeouts, and hitters are probably more likely to chase those borderline pitches than they are here.

I’m with MC, I don’t think Matsuzaka’s command is as bad as it seems if you look at his walk rate.  I just think he’d rather walk a guy than give up an XBH.  David Cone was similar in style, albeit much, much, much better.

“I think in Japan they also frown on strikeouts, and hitters are probably more likely to chase those borderline pitches than they are here.”

Expanding the zone can’t help not King, can it?

I was thinking it could make it less likely to get called out on pitches on the corner.  Guess it depends on the pitcher, batter and umpire on whether expanding the zone can be beneficial.

Hitting weak groundballs and popups on borderline two-strike pitches will lower your K-rate.

Swinging and missing them will raise it though.  If the batter is Vlad- or Cano-like that’s one thing, but surely contact rates are significantly worse out of the zone for most players.

It actually is possible to increase your contact rate by cutting down on your swing.  Nobody does this in MLB any more, but it used to be the rule with two strikes.  If SG is right about strikeouts being frowned on in Japan, I’m pretty sure that the hitters aren’t hacking away in the hopes of getting lucky and making contact on a bad pitch, but rather sacrificing power for plate coverage.

And swinging does eliminate the backwards Ks.

@88. I LOVE it when people say things like “Noone in MLB cuts down their swing with 2 strikes anymore.” It reminds me of something Joe Morgan would say.

Never mind, google says he signed a two-year contract for $5, maybe with incentives up to another $5.

I assume you meant $5M, but knowing how much of a discount Wakefield has taken over the years it is completely possible he is playing the next two seasons for a grand total of 5 dollars with another possible 5 dollars in incentives.

“And swinging does eliminate the backwards Ks.”

Maybe that’s the real issue - even here people are more upset about a big K looking than swinging.

[89] Except in this case, it’s hyperbole.  Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver don’t know what hyperbole is.

[90] The per diem is pretty good though.

Trying to remember where I read that about the strikeout being frowned on in Japan, but a quick Google search uncovered this.

In this particular case, the difference is that in Japan, nothing a batter can do is worse or more humiliating than a strikeout. Japanese batters will do almost anything to avoid striking out, including choking up on the bat, slap-hitting, and bunting against tough strikeout pitchers. Japanese managers routinely bench players who strike out a few times in a row. In fact the swing they teach Japanese players from their youth is deliberately designed to sacrifice power in exchange for fewer strikeouts.

[94] Couldn’t a Japanese team go against this conventional wisdom, get a bunch of high OBP guys who happen to make most of their outs by K (thus those players would be extremely undervalued) and dominate that league (or at least gain an advantage)?

[16] Mo bless you, Dak for having the nuts to speak out and not follow the RLYW pravda bullshit regarding the 2 lads in question.
I actually think Phil will be an effective starter at some point.
Mr. the Hutt? He’s not the brightest guy, and doesn’t seem to be a really hard worker. I watched the Jobber/ becky game from 7/08, 5 times last winter. That was the same night we acquired messers Nady & Marte.
I thought Jobber was the next Allie Reynolds.
Not Debbie Reynolds. He needs someone to help him focus his inner Feller.
Maybe Carrie Fisher?

[96] No one’s competing with you for the Grampa Simpson niche here, no need to go peddle to the metal.

IPK on his refurbished repertoire.  5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K in his last start; 2.26 FIP in the AZFL says RAB.

2007 Yankees actually allowed about a half-run MORE per game in the second half (Joba came up on August 7th) than they did in the first half.

Can someone look up Farnsworth IP in 07 2nd half vs. 1st half ?

Jesus - “pedal”.

[99] Here’s how to fish - click on pairs of rows to sum the inclusive section.