Monday, November 30, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves
The Yankee bullpen started out shakily in 2009, with pitchers like Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez unable to follow up on their good 2008 performances. Here are some of the key stats for the Yankee bullpen through May 9.
ERA: 6.22
FIP: 6.00
CERA: 5.57
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .266/.355/.506
HR/9: 2.11
BB/9: 4.48
K/9: 8.79
From May 10 on, here’s how the pen performed.
ERA: 3.37
FIP: 4.07
CERA: 3.34
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .222/.295/.365
HR/9: 1.06
BB/9: 3.24
K/9: 8.36
We’ve already covered Phil Hughes, so now I’ll look at Phil Coke, David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves.
| phil coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 60 | 60 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 4.25 | 3.96 | 2 | 9 | 94.5% | 83.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 60 | 56 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 47 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 4 | 11 | 87.5% | 82.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 60 | 67 | 36 | 33 | 7 | 24 | 43 | 4.99 | 4.43 | -3 | 4 | 111.0% | 93.7% |
| 2009 tht projection | 60 | 68 | 39 | 36 | 9 | 29 | 37 | 5.44 | 5.33 | -6 | 1 | 120.9% | 112.6% |
| 2009 zips projection | 60 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 4.91 | 4.72 | -3 | 5 | 109.1% | 99.7% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 60 | 78 | 41 | 39 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -9 | -1 | 129.3% | 91.4% |
| 2009 average projection | 60 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 23 | 43 | 4.89 | 4.44 | -3 | 5 | 108.7% | 93.9% |
| 2009 actual | 60 | 44 | 34 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 49 | 4.50 | 4.73 | 0 | 8 |
*Coke's projections were primarily as a starter, so I converted them to a relief equivalent.
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
Although his last appearance of the season was a disaster, Phil Coke was pretty good for most of 2009. As a lefty-reliever, his primary job is to get left-handed hitters out. That's something he's done 77.9% of the time in his major league career, which is the good news. The bad news is he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and allowed 10 HRs in 60 innings. The major difference with Coke pitching to righties versus lefties is his BB rate. RHB have hit .202 against him and have slugged .367 against him in his career, good for an ISO(SLG - AVG) of .165. LHB have hit .197 with a .349 SLG, good for an ISO of .152. Coke's walked 16 of the 127 RHB he's faced, compared to 6 of the 163 LHB he's faced.
I know a lot of Yankee fans don't trust him, but I see no reason he can't be an effective second lefty out of the pen.
| david robertson | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 2 | 8 | 123.7% | 129.4% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 44 | 43 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 4.50 | 3.95 | 0 | 5 | 136.6% | 128.0% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 44 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 48 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 4 | 10 | 109.9% | 110.1% |
| 2009 tht projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 2 | 8 | 123.8% | 129.4% |
| 2009 zips projection | 44 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 2 | 7 | 125.2% | 122.4% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 44 | 39 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 5 | 10 | 105.2% | 98.6% |
| 2009 average projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 3.98 | 3.69 | 3 | 8 | 120.7% | 119.7% |
| 2009 actual | 44 | 36 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 3.30 | 3.09 | 6 | 11 |
Robertson's projections were decent, but he ended up exceeding them. The biggest thing was the bump in his strikeout rate, as he K'd about 20 more batters over his average projection pro-rated to the 44 innings he pitched. Among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in 2009, Robertson's K/9 rate of 12.98 was second in baseball, behind Jonathan Broxton.
I'm a little concerned about the late season issue that shut Robertson down for most of September, primarily because of how sporadically he was used in the postseason. That tells me that there was at least some lingering concern about his health. As long as that's not an ongoing problem, Robertson's emergence should allow the Yankees to at least try and use both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the rotation, with the hope that Robertson and Damaso Marte can serve as setup men and someone from the farm like Mark Melancon and/or Edwar Ramirez can take Robertson's 2009 role in 2010.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 84 | 82 | 39 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 63 | 3.93 | 4.64 | 5 | 16 | 111.2% | 126.1% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 84 | 71 | 31 | 29 | 9 | 32 | 68 | 3.06 | 4.12 | 13 | 24 | 86.6% | 112.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 11 | 30 | 60 | 3.99 | 4.62 | 5 | 15 | 113.0% | 125.7% |
| 2009 tht projection | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 63 | 3.93 | 4.64 | 5 | 16 | 111.2% | 126.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 84 | 85 | 42 | 38 | 14 | 24 | 51 | 4.12 | 4.96 | 4 | 14 | 116.6% | 134.8% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 84 | 75 | 38 | 36 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 3.83 | 4.15 | 6 | 17 | 108.5% | 112.8% |
| 2009 average projection | 84 | 79 | 38 | 36 | 12 | 27 | 60 | 3.81 | 4.52 | 6 | 17 | 107.8% | 122.9% |
| 2009 actual | 84 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 10 | 16 | 69 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 9 | 20 |
*Like Coke, Aceves's projections were primarily as a starter so I converted them to a relief equivalency.
Aceves emerged as one of the Yankees' most important relievers and a had a very good season even though he tailed off at the end. His ERA got as low as 2.02 on July 5. He then started a game against Minnesota on July 9 and scuffled the rest of the way (4.91 ERA). While it's a nice and convenient end point to look at that start and blame it for Aceves's year-end tailing off, a deeper look at the numbers removing that start shows this:
| Split | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | HBP | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| Through Jul 5 | 40.0 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 2.03 | 3.88 | 2.81 |
| July 18-Oct 3 | 40.7 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4.65 | 3.67 | 3.21 |
| Total | 81 | 65 | 32 | 30 | 16 | 67 | 9 | 5 | 3.35 | 3.77 | 3.01 |
Aceves didn't really pitch all that much differently before or after the start. The primary difference was five extra singles, and 12 extra runs allowed. His final overall line is reasonably close to what it should have been given his peripherals, maybe a touch better.
While the Yankees have supposedly asked Aceves to prepare to come into spring training as a starter, it's more likely he'll be in the pen again in 2010 depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, and he should be an asset there again just like he was in 2009.
I'm going to do one more of these for Mariano Rivera, but I think I'm going to skip the bench and scrubs unless there's a demand for it. Then we can dive into Hot Stove GM mode.
Comments
Mike Dunn could make Coke expendable. Could he be a part of Halladay trade?
/Hot Stove GM’ed.
While the Yankees have supposedly asked Aceves to prepare to come into spring training as a starter, it’s more likely he’ll be in the pen again in 2010 depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, and he should be an asset there again just like he was in 2009.
I think they want as many “starters” going into the season as possible. A couple of injuries in ST or April could leave them short a starter or two (or more), so they want Aceves ready to go 5 or 6 innings for a spot-start or two early. That’s smart.
Dunn has to improve his command.
Certainly. I think he can, though I don’t know if he will.
I think I’m going to skip the bench and scrubs unless there’s a demand for it
Not sure how long it takes you to do these, but I wouldn’t mind a quick review of Cervelli and Pena. Being kids who hadn’t played much above AA until going into the majors (and starting roles for a while!), I think it would be nice to have some commentary on them. They look like they’ll be part of the team going forward, so it may be nice to see what the projections (if any) of them were for this year and how they compared. But no, I certainly don’t care to look back at Ransom or Berroa, nor Veras and Edwar.
So, on a completely unrelated topic but still potentially huge news for baseball…
Grady Sizemore took mostly naked pictures of himself in a mirror and posted them on a web site that is almost exclusively frequented by gay men. Could Grady become the first openly gay player to actually play in MLB?
Among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in 2009, Robertson’s K/9 rate of 12.98 was second in baseball, behind Jonathan Broxton.
And first in the majors!
Also, one thing I, for one, would be curious to see is a look at NYA team defensive performance vs. projections. Anyone else?
[4] Doesn’t sound like it. Here’s the story on MLB.com. Quoting Sizemore:
“These pictures were stolen illegally from my girlfriend’s e-mail,” Sizemore told The Plain Dealer on Sunday night. “It’s now a legal matter that is under investigation. I can’t say anything more.”
Also, one thing I, for one, would be curious to see is a look at NYA team defensive performance vs. projections. Anyone else?
Well since Pena and Cervelli are supposed to be good defenders (not checking the numbers on purpose!), that would segue nicely into a review of them, right? Right?
Well never mind…
Apparently the photos were emailed around the web to different sites by his Playboy Playmate girlfriend, Brittany Binger
[8] Good to know the world is safe for democracy again.
That reminds me that I keep meaning to ask: what’s the origin of the “is it safe” meme that was popping up here a while back?
Marathon Man
David Robertson has giant brass balls. He is a total badass and I hope he’s successful as a Yankee for many years.
A little late, but I’m thankful for the WS championship year as well. A little gravy with Jeter winning the SI Sportsman of the Year. That of course was voted on after the series, so I’m sure the ring helped his chances. Kind of makes up for the MVP to some degree though hard to argue with the Mauer choice. Anyway, pretty special award and hard to think a first for the Yanks. I assume the Sportsman of the Year didn’t exist in 56, as Mantle would have been really overlooked had he not gotten the award.
The 1956 SI Sportsman of the Year was an Olympic sprinter you’ve never heard of, Joel.
David Robertson is a guy who illustrates the importance of deception in a pitcher’s delivery. He doesn’t throw THAT hard, but he throws his fastball right past people. The curve is very good too, of course, but to me, watching DRob blow guys away with 92, 93mph fastballs… it just shows you that sometimes the velocity numbers don’t match up well with what the hitter is seeing. Some guys throw 95 but are hittable and some guys throw 92 and are “sneaky fast.”
I don’t mind Phil Coke, but I don’t trust him either. It’s nice to look forward to a full year of an effective Marte.
Aceves is the new El Brujo (Ramiro Mendoza), which is cool.
What do people think of Mark Melancon? I remember him being hyped on his way up from the minors as a potential impact late-inning reliever. It didn’t happen that way this year in what I imagine to be a mere handful of innings. Anybody got a strong opinion on him?
Sure, I can do Pena/Cervelli and the defense.
CAIRO on the money with Coke.
CAIRO’s on coke? Add in CHONE, which I think is on crack (see: projection for Shelley Duncan), and these projection systems seem to be running with the wrong crowd…
Good God, that was awful. I really should think more before hitting submit.
Melancon will be fine if the 5.5 BB/9 (and the 4 HBPs in 16.1 IP) is a SSS fluke. If he really is that wild at the MLB level, then he’s useless. His minor league track record certainly suggests that he has much better control than that.
I know a lot of people were pissed at Girardi for burying him, but when you walk or hit the first guy you face every time you get into a game, you deserve to get buried.
[16] Melancon rcoks.
He then started a game against Minnesota on July 9 and scuffled the rest of the way (4.91 ERA).
Does anyone know how the word “to scuffle” took on the meaning of “to struggle”? I honestly think Joe Torre did that himself. I remember hearing him saying it in an interview once and thinking it was strange, but a few years later it’s a quite common part of the lexicon. Anyone?
/Word Nerd
[15] It probably helped when in FB velocity jumped from topping out around 92 and sitting around 90 to topping out at 95 and sitting in the 92-93 range. The story with him before this year was great curve, fringy-average fastball. With the added velocity his fastball became a legit plus pitch, and was reflected in its value this year. According to fangraphs it was far and away his most valuable pitch.
Frog - there’s no doubt.
According to dictionary.com:
scuf⋅fle
/ˈskʌfəl/ [skuhf-uhl], -fled, -fling
–verb (used without object)
1. to struggle or fight in a rough, confused manner.
It would seem that the use of “to scuffle” as meaning “to struggle” is pretty well established and likely predates Mr. Torre.
MC, that doesn’t really follow.
“Scuffle” means struggle, but not usually in the sense of “encounter problems” or “not do very well.”
I think it follows very well in a sort of “a little learning…” sense. People who know that two words are synonyms, but don’t understand the subtlety of the sense in which the words are synonymous, are likely to interchange words that aren’t really interchangeable. And if it sounds good, it will catch on. All I’m saying is that I think it had caught on before Torre.
Could be, of course.
[17] You the man!
Anybody got a strong opinion on him?
When I saw him pitch in 2008 for the SWB Yankees, he was dominant. Last year, not so much. Not that he, um, scuffled exactly. But 2008 every time out (so it seemed) he dominated. 2009 he might dominate, or dominate for the first inning. Other times (or next inning) he might walk a batter or two, let up a few hard-hit balls, etc. I know some of those outings were shortly after returning from NY, not sure of all of them though.
I think he’s still got “it”, and last year was SSS/learning the league. As MC says, you’ve got to produce to stay in, though it may have been nice for him to get into some more low-leverage situations. I think with another year under his belt and he’ll probably be first up in case of injury, he can do like Robertson last year.
[SG]
Thank you, I’m looking forward to that!
I want to put in a vote here for “scuffling,” especially for pitchers. As MC says, a “scuffle” means a struggle between two parties, whereas “struggles” can be internal. But “scuffling” here also gives us a visual image of the pitcher kicking at the rubber out of neurosis or frustration. I think it’s quite perfect actually, just maybe not for a batter.
This seems relevant:
3. a. intr. To struggle through, on, along; hence, to go hurriedly and superficially (through or over some operation).
1784 COWPER Tiroc. 340 The rude will scuffle through with ease enough, Great schools suit best the sturdy and the rough. 1844 H. STEPHENS Book of Farm II. 218 They are usually scuffled over in the morning with the currycomb. 1844 THACKERAY in Punch VII. 83/2 Scuffling through our blessed meals, that we may be early on the road. 1885 J. RUNCIMAN Skippers & Sh. 235 You go to school and scuffle on the best way you can.
b. To survive with difficulty, to make a bare living by uncongenial or degrading means. slang (chiefly U.S.).
1939 W. HOBSON Amer. Jazz Music (1940) 173 At the bottom of the economic pile are those musicians who have nothing which could accurately be called a job but are taking whatever one-night stand happens along; this is called ‘scuffling’. 1956 S. LONGSTREET Real Jazz Old & New xviii. 147 Scuffle is to get by. 1956 M. STEARNS Story of Jazz (1957) xvii. 212 The Basie band was scuffling. ‘It was a cracker town but a happy time,’ Basie recalls. 1961 RIGNEY & SMITH Real Bohemia p. xvi, Scuffle, to live by one’s wits, not by a gig. 1972 T. KOCHMAN Rappin’ & stylin’ Out 164 ‘Scuffling’ in the idiom means barely making it from day to day, generally by engaging in nonprestigious..activities such as begging, collecting and returning pop bottles for the deposit, working at odd jobs for minimum wages, etc.
It seems that rilke’s got access to much cooler dictionaries than us mere mortals.
Are you not in an academic context, MC? Actually maybe the OED is even generally accessible for single searches.
I posted that from home, and the OED site wanted me to register or some such nonsense. I still haven’t gotten around to reinstalling and setting up my VPN access to the U since my last hard drive failure. I know I could get the good stuff here at the office, but the moment had passed.
I live mostly in a linux or mac world, and right now I need to get something that lives on a windows drive for bogus security reasons, but my remote access account won’t allow me to install acrobat so I can open the damn pdf.
I’m a little concerned about the late season issue that shut Robertson down for most of September, primarily because of how sporadically he was used in the postseason. That tells me that there was at least some lingering concern about his health.
That or the magic binder wasn’t bullish on Robertson.
[33, 37]
I bet it’s the OED in his magic binder.
Next entry: SI.com: Derek Jeter named 2009 Sportsman of the Year
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