As Posada recently said, even though Mo doesn’t throw as hard as he once did, his command is still so good that he can put the ball exactly where he wants.

OT, but a good line from Chad Jennings I read this morning:

Quick, small-picture moves destroy good baseball teams. Cashman is a big picture kind of guy. That’s a good thing for the Yankees.

Sherman:

The best 2010 Yankees team has Johnny Damon. No question. His swing is ideal for the short right-field porch, he is New York/big-game tested, and his tandem work atop the lineup with Derek Jeter served as the offensive engine for a champion.

The Yankees, however, see him as comparable to Bobby Abreu, who recently signed for two years at $19 million to stay an Angel. The Yanks do not want to budge beyond a two-year offer. Scott Boras compares his client favorably with Jeter and sounds as if he wants a four-year contract.

If the Yankees are actually offering Damon an Abreu-like contract and he hasn’t accepted it, I wonder how long they will leave the offer open before moving on.

Seems that there’s just a wee bit of space between Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeer, no?

[4] Lies.  Bobby Abreu makes the whole lineup more patient.  Jeter is too selfishly focused on being clutchy.

Jeter is irrelevant. I think the Angels should have let the market set itself rather than rush to sign Abreu. The Yankees shouldn’t let their mistake affect their offer to Damon.

“Jeter is irrelevant. I think the Angels should have let the market set itself rather than rush to sign Abreu. The Yankees shouldn’t let their mistake affect their offer to Damon”

You think 2/18 would be a bad price for Damon?  I think it’s fair.

I’d also look into Cameron, for a similar price, or Branyan in the 1/5 or 2/10 area, or N Johnson in the 2/12-14 range.  Matsui, I wouldn’t go more than 1/6-8.

You think 2/18 would be a bad price for Damon?  I think it’s fair.

I think anything more than a one year contract with a team option would be a mistake for the Yankees.

A little slow on the draw, but has there been anything more than speculation about A-Rod needing a follow-up surgery or not ? I would have thought if it was needed they’d have taken him straight from the parade to the prep room.

I’m starting to lean more and more towards Cameron on a 1/6 type deal.  If the price goes up to around 8M I’m not sure that option is looking as good and I have no idea what the market value for his services are.

I apologize in advance for this post, but I opened SportSpyder without having logged in (which filters out unwanted sites) and the blogger who shall remain nameless had a linked post that compared Hughes’s streakiness or some such with that of Edwar Ramirez. Serenity now!

*back to work*

Money aside, I see no reason why Cameron isn’t a better option than Damon straight up.  Damon’s numbers have to a certain extent been propped up by YS (DN and old).  His value has been propped up by the attention of being on the Yankees and the lineup around him.

Damon’s road numbers for the last 3 years are almost exactly what Cameron has given you.  Yes Damon will take better advantage of DNYS than Cameron but Cameron plays better defense (not hard) and can still play CF.  I don’t put much stock into defensive numbers at all but I don’t think it’s a stretch to claim that Cameron will make up that difference.

Bringing money back into it, for that much difference in money and years and without the option of playing CF Damon just doesn’t seem worth it to me.

Mariano F’ing Rivera indeed. Can’t believe I’m around to witness his dominance.

[12] While Cameron can still play defense (and maybe he’ll be able to chase down fly balls until he’s 50), I’m very very skeptical of 37 year olds who are not historically great hitters—the cliff tends to be right there.  Now, Cameron has been very consistent from 1999 onwards, but that doesn’t give an indication of how long he’ll be able to keep it up.

Damon is eleven months younger than Cameron, and his hitting is not exactly historically great either.  Seems that the potential issues with those two are pretty darned similar, except for the expectation that Cameron will provide more defensive value.

Mo is Mo.

Amen.

[15] Fair enough.  My concern is that Cameron is a high-strikeout hitter as it is, so with a little slippage in bat speed, he’s no longer a major league hitter.  Damon doesn’t come with that issue, although he did look pretty toasty for the last month of the season.

The best 2010 Yankees team has Johnny Damon. No question.

No, the best 2010 Yankees team has Holliday, Dunn, and Halladay on it, but it’s just not likely to happen. Neither is Damon if Boras is insisting on more than two years.

His swing is ideal for the short right-field porch, he is New York/big-game tested, and his tandem work atop the lineup with Derek Jeter served as the offensive engine for a champion.

Any lefty pull hitter with some pop has a swing that is ideal for DNYS, so that includes Damon, Dunn, Branyan, and me in my backyard when I was 12.

Anyone with some pop and an above average OBP would also serve as part of the Yankees offensive engine.

What about grit though?

[15] I totally agree that there is “fall off the cliff” potential with both Damon and Cameron. So, then it should come down to which guy is willing to take a one year deal, no?

I mean, if either falls off the cliff but are on a one year deal, you just bury that guy on the bench or DL (or DFA them) and replace them with AJax (if he looks more ready) or whoever is available as a rental at the trade deadline.

What about grit though?

I just don’t want the Yankees limiting themselves to <strike>white</strike> <strike>“Red Sox-type”</strike> “gritty” players.

So the Mets got a 26yo career minor leaguer and a probable non-prospect for Wagner instead of the Braves 1st draft pick and Cleveland got a league average pitcher in Masterson and a guy who never gets to the post and may or may not be any good in Hagadone for V Mart but its the Yankees who overhype their prospects.

The only reason I’m not ready to declare that I absolutely prefer Cameron to Damon for next season is that Damon’s offense is clearly suited for the Stadium, whereas Cameron is the opposite.  I’m certain that Cameron will play better D.  I’m reasonably sure that, in a neutral context, Cameron is only slightly less of a hitter than Damon.  But DNYS isn’t a neutral context, and half the games will be played there.

They are both old.  From afar, it seems to me that Cameron has been healthy and steady.  Damon seems to be battling minor injuries more and more.  But who knows.

I still prefer Holliday as Plan A.

Heh, from afar it seems…

Cameron has averaged 140 games/season for the past three seasons (151-120-149).  Not bad or anything, but it’s actually a couple games worse than Damon.

Another thing I haven’t really considered… he’s doing what he’s doing in the NL.  The league difference thing can be overstated, but some adjustment for the AL being better seems necessary.  That might make the divergence between Cameron’s (righty) bat and Damon’s (lefty) one too much for me.  There’s about 20 points of OBP involved here…

[18] Even if Cameron is totally average with the bat he’ll still be one of the better CF/LF in the league for his defense. In this lineup, a .750 OPS is perfectly fine if it only costs $6 Mil given the alternatives.

I’d say they’re both at the same place as far as reliability. Don’t forget Damon is getting older and his value is highly from his speed. If he can’t steal 7 bases in 2 years and plays a horrible OF, then you fucked up.

And of course this assumes trust in Austin Jackson to be able to be a league average CF in 2 years, maybe Andrew McCutchen style.

Cameron only played 120 games in 2008 because of that 25 game suspension for failing a drug test due to amphetamines. He also may or may not have received an exception from the league to be allowed to take certain amphetamines due to post-concussion syndrome dating back to his collision with Beltran.

“his value is highly from his speed”

Not really, he had a career-low 12 SB last year but it was one of his best seasons ever.

[28] Please don’t let facts and stats get in the way of us talking ourselves into Cameron instead of Damon.

Cameron only played 120 games in 2008 because of that 25 game suspension for failing a drug test due to amphetamines. He also may or may not have received an exception from the league to be allowed to take certain amphetamines due to post-concussion syndrome dating back to his collision with Beltran.

So you’re saying that Cameron may derive a lot of his value from speed too?

So you’re saying that Cameron may derive a lot of his value from speed too?

Heh, but since he only had 7 SB last season, his speed doesn’t exactly kill.

Conkles for the win.

Yes, definitely need a drum-roll for that one!

You know, Yankee fans often get derided for making up silly trades - and we mock ourselves here for that - but here’s one on the Keith Law chat from a Sox fan:

Clay Bucholz, Josh Reddick, and Casey Kelly for Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson. Who says no?

Law let the guy off the hook mentioning only that Johnson was said to not be available.  But if Florida liked that package, I’d offer Joba, IPK, and Jackson…

That’s not enough for either Ramirez or Johnson.

How about the Marlins get to pick their favorite 9 Yankee prospects - 1 from each position and the Yanks get HanRam and Johnson.
I’d do it in a heartbeat.

Polanco signs with Phillies for 3/18

Does anyone ever get the sense that many of the newer, least euphonic nicknames stem from the simple and bland desire, in a texting/blogging world, ty type fewer letters?

ty=to

[38] IDK (LOL)!

That’s not enough for either Ramirez or Johnson.

Yes, but more than the suggested Boston offer…

There’s also the issue of what you do with Damon if you sign him. It’s a plus that he can still play defense, however badly,but the idea’s been floated that they bring Damon back it’s to replace Matsui, not himself. So the answer to the Damon/Cameron question could be to sign both of them.

[42] Or sign Cameron and Holliday… Or just Holliday and let Gardbrera man CF.

“Polanco signs with Phillies for 3/18”

What’s he worth or rather how much value does he lose as a 3b?  I guess there’s the NL adjustment.

The difference beween a 2B and a 3B offensively is around 3 runs over a full season.  Looking at Polanco’s three year forecast, he projects to hit .285/.330/.389 over around 1850 PAs as a Phillie, which would be worth about 20 runs above a replacement level 3B. 

If a marginal win is worth $4.5M, then his offense for the next three seasons would be worth about $9M, so he’d need to be around a +7 per season defender at 3B on average to be worth this contract.  I haven’t done my defensive projections yet, but I’m pretty sure Polanco would project to be about that good at 3B, if not better.

“3 runs over a full season”

Yikes, I thought 2b was a very weak offensive position and 3b a strong one.

3B is the coolest position.  Discuss.

Nettles made those plays at third base.  What else do you need?

“I thought 2b was a very weak offensive position and 3b a strong one”

I wonder if those numbers have been changing—it seems to me that more and more guys who play just OK 2B or SS get put there if they have a good bat.  Perhaps that narrows the difference?  And then again maybe if you’ve got good hitters at 2B/SS like the Phils, you say “hey, we’ll live with a glove guy at third” and that drags the 3B numbers down overall…

brought to you by those makers of quality athletic gear, POOMA

I think one of the oddest story lines in baseball history is the way that 3b and 2b swapped profiles in the first half of the twentieth century. For a long time 3b was primarily a glove position, and 2b was a place to stick a bat. It also seems like the last position to acquire players of heroic stature. Who was the greatest third baseman before Eddie Mathews, Frank Baker?

“Does anyone ever get the sense that many of the newer, least euphonic nicknames stem from the simple and bland desire, in a texting/blogging world, ty type fewer letters?”

Maybe, though “A-Rod” predates blogging and texting.  It may be more like [name of scandal]Gate—a way for lazy pressies to come up with copy fast.

What if the benchmark for all scandals was Teapot Dome?  AttorneyDome.  WhitewaterDome.  CigarDome.  Iran-ContraDome.  I know there’s a really funny joke in there somewhere…

The best 2010 Yankees team has Johnny Damon. No question. His swing is ideal for the short right-field porch…

Maybe that should be turned around.  The best 2010 Damon team is the Yankees, because with another team he loses the advantage of the short porch. So, if Damon is worth, say 1/19 to the Yankees, he should be worth less to another team.

On the other hand 3 runs is 0.3 wins is $1.5.

[49] I guess that makes sense - teams have to push good hitting prospects towards normally defensive positions to be efficient enough to compete these days.

I wonder if SS technique for big players was slow to evolve.

fgas, saw your name in the credits yesterday. Don’t ruin the finale for me!

fgas, saw your name in the credits yesterday. Don’t ruin the finale for me!

Only humans can explain

Robin wins.

I work on Top Chef.

I can’t wait to see Robin and Eli in the reunion special. Can you book Eli’s mom?

Also can you tell Gail I’m in love with her?

“Only humans can explain”

Rilkekind [referring to a small plastic toy]: “The frog’s a bat because he’s upside down.”  “The frog can’t have any candy because he didn’t have a good dinner”.

Explaining’s overrated.

“Also can you tell Gail I’m in love with her?”

I will.

How’s the food on that set?

who are the two left standing? i followed a bunch of episode while i was house sitting for my time warner’d friend. but that was when it was still over a handful of contestants.

i guess i can look for the eater.com recaps.

Hooray! My life is complete.

“time warner’d”

“Only humans can explain.”

[For Gene Wolfe readers, the latter quote sounds to me like something Loyal to the Group of Seventeen might say.]

Who was the greatest third baseman before Eddie Mathews, Frank Baker?

Maybe Pie Traynor?

By the way, Rilkef, I did have Western Wind on my shelf, since back in the creative writing undergrad time. The class skipped around to certain sections, but I’ve been going through it now. Pretty good. I must have my mind on other things back in the daze.

[50] Could that be due to better lefthanders playing the game now? Or more switch hitters? That would lead to more balls going to 2B and less to 3B.

...better lefthanders playing the game now? Or more switch hitters?

I think mostly more bunting.  A lot more bunting.

[69] So… It’s Girardi’s fault?

I meant more bunting back in the day.  So it will be Girardi’s fault when 3B goes back to being a defense first position.

Maybe baseball decision makers came to believe, at a time when state of the art in orthopedic surgery was not as advanced as it is now, that 2Bmen were more likely to get hurt by runners breaking up the DP, so they moved their better hitters to 3B.

Curry:

When the Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman visited Yankee Stadium in October, the Yankees asked his representative if Chapman could throw a bullpen session for them. Edwin Mejia, who has since been replaced as the agent, said Chapman would not at that time.

The Yankees, like every other major league team, had barely seen Chapman pitch, so his refusal disappointed them. Mejia mentioned that Chapman wanted a free-agent contract worth $50 million to $60 million. Without getting a chance to extensively evaluate him, the Yankees would not offer a fraction of that amount.

[...]

Joe Kehoskie, an agent who has represented Cuban defectors for 11 years, said Chapman “might have more upside than any pitcher on the planet.” But in terms of being ready for the major leagues, Kehoskie added that Chapman “is a strong candidate for being the fool’s gold of the current free-agent market” because he is still developing complementary pitches and working on his control.

[...]

The speculation about Chapman’s future contract has ranged from Daisuke Matsuzaka’s six-year, $52 million deal with Boston in 2006 to Jose Contreras’s four-year, $32 million deal with the Yankees in 2002 to Stephen Strasburg’s four-year, $15.1 million deal with the Washington Nationals. It would seem that Chapman, who will almost certainly start his career in the minor leagues, could come close to matching Strasburg’s contract.

Before the Yankees signed Orlando Hernandez (four-year, $6.6 million contract in 1998) and Contreras, they had scouted both multiple times and knew they were pursuing pitchers acknowledged as the best in Cuba. In the year before the Red Sox signed Matsuzaka, they watched each of his starts in Japan and knew he was the best pitcher in that country. No team has as detailed a dossier on Chapman, who was not yet the best pitcher in Cuba. “I find it very difficult to believe any team would offer Strasburg money, based on eight-month-old gun readings from the W.B.C.,” Kehoskie said. “Beyond that, Chapman was declared a free agent nine weeks ago. When was the last time a player was a free agent for nine weeks, generated little or no action, and then had teams suddenly making record-breaking offers?”

[...]

Robert Eenhoorn, a former Yankees infielder who is the general manager of the Netherlands national team, is the rare official who has seen Chapman pitch. Eenhoorn watched Chapman against South Korea in 2007 and said Chapman was impressive for that level of play.

“He has an exploding fastball, but was also wild with it,” Eenhoorn said. “He is, without a doubt, a great player. But, as everyone knows, velocity alone is not enough nowadays.”

Curry gives Kehoskie’s opinion an awful lot of weight.

Have any teams even presented offers yet?

Here’s some shit POOMA.

The 3baseman skillset has a lot to do with reflexes, as balls are pulled right down the line.  Were there fewer dead pull hitters during the dead ball era? 

What’s the history of the double play?  I know Tinker-Evers-Chance were so good at it that Gertrude Stein wrote a 1400 page book about them and Chance had a Monopoly card named after him.  Besides that, were DPs less expected to be turned when infields were pebblier?  It seems that a significant reason 2basemen need agility is to make that pivot.

Wildly off-topic but I seldom hear a NY politician and think get this woman on the Yankees somehow.

She gave a great closing argument.

Boston signs Scutaro. Will Boston’s SS no longer be a black hole? Or will Scutaro only be the newest black hole in a long line of black holes?

Black Hole.

Black Hole.

[76-77]  Groom her to be Mariano heir.  For now, she can pitch teh . . .

[78] Check FanGraphs; they suspedt Scutaro will play exactly like…Scutaro.  Which would normally be fine, except Boston fans will probably be expecting 1998 Nomar. 

Chances are, this will be a slight improvement for Boston, but unless they also address LF (resign Bay or add someone), or upgrade pitching w/o taking away from the big-league roster, they won’t be significantly better than last year.

In other news, decent article on pitch values on THT.  The article itself is nice, but I’m linking it b/c there are some FANTASTIC (IMHO) graphs of how a slider can be effective.

Boston fans will probably be expecting 1998 Nomar.

You really think so?  That was a long time ago.  Wouldn’t you think they’d be happy with a decent upgrade at the position relative to the horror shows of recent years?

Olney:

Item G) Rival executives are saying that while Detroit is willing to discuss Curtis Granderson, they haven’t aggressively shopped the outfielder. “I think they might be reconsidering their position on that,” said one official. “Maybe they reacted to the response they got (in Detroit) to the news that Granderson might be moved. I think they would have to be overwhelmed.”

[82] Well, that was partly the FanGraphs take, partly my taking a shot at Boston fans.  FanGraphs basically wrote that the previous “flops” in Boston (more or less) performed like you would expect them to, but were considered failures.  And they used that as an example of why Scutaro may end up being considered a failure as a SS, though they qualified at the end since they didn’t know the $$ it was difficult to say.

I added the Nomar-part as a shot at Boston fans.  No, Scutaro won’t need to perform nearly that well.  If he’s a 4-ish WAR player they’ll be plenty happy.  If he’s 2-3 WAR I think how happy they are will depend more on where Boston is relative to the Yankees…

ESPN’s Buster Olney has the terms on Scutaro: $5MM in 2010, $5MM in 2011, and a 2012 option with a $6MM club option, $3MM player option, and $1.5MM buyout.  That makes it a two-year, $11.5MM deal…

Thanks; I think they wrote the article before the numbers came out.  Seems a very reasonable deal, which is quite unfortunate…

Apparently, there’s a $1M signing bonus too.  So 2/$12.5M.

Mike K., those graphs are absolutely wild.

Rilke - yes, she’s well spoken.  Like Mo?  Jeter would be much more of a behind-the-scenes pol, I imagine.

Given the title of this thread, the Brandon Lyon era must have come and gone in a heartbeat.

[85] That’s a good deal. One the plus side Boston now only has one first round pick.

so that means the “Pedroia to short” noise was just a bluff to squeeze Scutaro a little more before they signed him.  At an AAV of 6.25M I think Boston would be pretty happy if he were a 3 WAR player.  Doesn’t seem like a difficult goal for him to reach if he stays healthy…

Scutaro should’ve had Boras as his agent.  Boras would’ve “compared him favorably to Jeter”.  Anyway doesn’t that phrase “compare favorably” mean “better than”?

[85] [89] Yeah, its really only a good deal when you factor out the type A status (and further reasons the system is messed). I guess it offsets the ridiculous Wagner as type A compensation somewhat. The Scutaro deal is fine, pretty good really, its just that they still need to desperately upgrade their offense. Adrian G. is really the right move for them, plus resigning Bay. Kind of a no brainer actually.

Anyway doesn’t that phrase “compare favorably” mean “better than”?

I’ve never thought of it that way.  If someone mentioned that to me, I would think of something that is generally thought of as inferior, but was actually similar in quality to something thought of as superior.  E.g. (in theory) perhaps a 20K Chevy could compare favorably to a 50K Mercedes; the Chevy may be slightly better or slightly worse, but if you didn’t know one was a Mercedes or the price difference ahead of time, you’d probably think they sold for about the same price.

But then again I don’t compare favorably to the literary geniuses (no snark) here, so…

Of course, if Boston upgrades their offense by signing Holliday, then Scutaro only costs them their second rounder.  If they also upgrade their rotation with Lackey or their bullpen with Gonzalez or Soriano, then Scutaro only costs their third rounder.  If they do both of those things, then Toronto gets Boston’s fourth round pick for Scutaro.

And yeah, “compares favorably to” is a lot closer to meaning “almost as good as” than it is to “better than.”  But that’s in English.  I really can’t tell what it’s supposed to mean in Boras-speak.

6.25M seems really reasonable for Scutaro.

I’ve been thinking that maybe the Yankees could sign a super-utility type of guy like Scutaro or DeRosa to be part of a “DH rotation,” someone who could DH some days, maybe in a platoon with a left-hander like Nick Johnson, and play just about anywhere in the field when the veterans need a rest.  Not sure if it’s a better or more cost-efficient option than just signing Holliday, or just re-signing Damon and Matsui.  Or how about signing Damon, Matsui and DeRosa to short-term deals?

Either way, if Scutaro got 6.25, I wonder if DeRosa would go for less than that?

I really can’t tell what it’s supposed to mean in Boras-speak.

“This is the best player at his position, in the history of the game.  If you pass on him, you will be mocked for all eternity.”

Not sure if it’s a better or more cost-efficient option than just signing Holliday, or just re-signing Damon and Matsui.

Depends of course on what the costs of each are, and also what you plan on doing in 2011 and beyond.  Holliday is a solid bet to give you 3-5 WAR of performance in LF, every year for the next 4-5 years. 

I think I’d rather have him and say, give the DH spot to Miranda, at least against lefties.  Then, many times anyway, you can DH Posada aginst lefties and catch Cervelli, or key that for a half-day for Jeter/ARod and play Pena (or Holliday/Swisher and have Melky+Gardner in the field).  If they need more offense, I think they should be able to (relatively) cheaply find a DH around July, or at that point promoting Montero might make sense.

Crap, that is a pretty reasonable deal.

Crap, that is a pretty reasonable deal.

Only if Scut is really an above 90 OPS+ player, I think.

I don’t think they will sign Holliday because they don’t appear to want to add another long term contract (although they would probably make an exception for Halladay if the cost in prospects is reasonable).

Jack Curry said on YES’ Hot Stove last night that he thinks that Damon will “only” get a contract for $6-7m. If he’s right, that makes him extremely cost-efficient, and would provide room to re-sign Matsui (who would probably get around $5m if Curry is right about Damon’s contract) unless they trade for another OF/DH.