Ehhh, screw counting stats, he does what he has done for two more years, I think he is in the Hall of Fame.

Yay CAIRO!

Also, finally fangraphs knocks down Jorge Posada for his defense and baserunning, but not as much as SG (he was still the worst baserunner in the league, and I have no reason to doubt that). They have him at 2.6 WAR unofficially.

Posado had 1.000 SB average in the post-season, though!

Do they only project AB and not PA? Is it just some remarkable coincidence that they all predicted the exact number of PA and close-but-not-quite on the AB?

Also, did the Yankees get insanely lucky, or is Girardi a genius at getting production out of old guys?

Of all the borderline HoF’ers there are, Posado is by far the one I most want to see make it, even among Yankees (like Moose, or even Pettite).  Not only is he deserving, I think, but I’ve just loved watching him hit (running the bases, not so much).  Unfortunately, Pudge-Rod has a better offensive reputation, and probably a better chance of getting in, even though Posado’s offensive production usually equalled or exceeded Pudge’s.

Being a “genius” at getting production out of old guys isn’t hard.  Just give everybody plenty of rest, even if it means that people like Angel Berroa and Cody Ransom get a few PAs.

[4] Both?  Some it has to be plain dumb luck, but I think Girardi did a decent job of giving his older players regular or semi-regular rest.  His only hiccup was not resting Alex for the first however many games after he came of the DL, but otherwise, I thought he was conscientious about giving Damon, Matsui, Posado, and even Jeter days off.

[6] Yeah, giving old guys rest hardly qualifies one as a genius… more like competent.  But with baseball managers, basic competency is so uncommon that it often feels almost genius-like.

I don’t think Posada’s going to accrue enough in the way of counting stats to get into the Hall of Fame, but he’s been one of the best catchers of his generation and now has five World Series rings.

This year will be a big year, but I think he’s got a solid shot.  Looking at the FanGraphs leaderboards, it seems for catchers it is the combination of 300HR and 2000H.  The only catcher w/ at least 300 HR that isn’t in the HOF (or thought to be a lock) is Mickey Tettleton, who is also well below 2000H.  Looking at it the other way, I think the only catchers in the HOF w/o reaching those milestones are either pre-WW2 (Cochrane, Dickey, Hartnett, etc), or Roy Campanella.

So, can Posada reach both of those milestones?  I think the answer is clearly yes.  The things he’ll need are 1) health 2) opportunity to become the full time DH/2nd or 3rd catcher after 2012.  Neither of course is guaranteed.  I’d probably give him a 50/50 chance, though he can’t afford to do (appreciably) worse than this past year.

is Mickey Tettleton

Correction, Lance Parrish.  I don’t know why I was thinking Tettleton.

It’s not “genius” so much as it is “brave”.  He never panicked (other than arod) when the Yankees fell behind the Sox.  He could have pushed his stars harder to gain ground, but he had confidence over the long haul.  Same reason why the bulpen eventually shaped up nicely.

Do they only project AB and not PA? Is it just some remarkable coincidence that they all predicted the exact number of PA and close-but-not-quite on the AB?

Sorry, I forgot to re-state that I’ve pro-rated the projections to actual 2009 PAs for a more direct comparison.  The actual projected PAs were:

chone: 499
marcel: 356
pecota: 257
tht: 362
zips: 376
cairo: 431
average: 380

Disparities in ABs will be due to different projections for BBs/HBPs.

I agree with whoever said, “screw counting stats” and “of all the borderline HOFers Posada is the one I want to see make it most.”

Posada is a badass. His longevity is amazing, his offense as a catcher is ridiculous, and his mystique and aura are off the charts. I don’t particularly like him either. I think he’s kinda annoying in a lot of ways, but of all the catchers who have played in my lifetime there are only 2 who I think are better and they are Piazza and Pudge.

How on earth is Pudge not tainted as a juicer the way other players are? He has the background, the associations, and he mysteriously lost a bunch of weight when the drug testing policy went into effect…

@14. I think Pudge is certainly suspect, but personally, i think the lid is off the jar. I just don’t care anymore. I assume that the majority of players did something, and I think the more high profile the player the higher the likelihood is. I mean, would you be shocked if Posada was on a list somewhere? I wouldn’t. Not saying I suspect him, just saying I’m past the point of surprise.

There are only a handful of players from the current era that I think are beyone suspicion, Jeter being one of them.

Off topic: SG, you may have weighed in on this before but I’d love to get your POV on the value of WARP/WARP3 in evaluating players. I know that Win Shares is out of vogue, wondering about WARP.

Background, associations and mysterious weight loss don’t count for much with the voters when compared to testing positive, being ratted out*, or sweating or failing to speak English in front of a Congressional committee.

* by someone other than Jose Canseco.  Although I’m not sure if Canseco ever did rat out I-rod.

I just don’t care anymore. I assume that the majority of players did something, and I think the more high profile the player the higher the likelihood is.

I agree, however, there are a LOT of Hall of Fame voters who will NOT vote for a player who used steroids, so it IS kind of annoying that players will make the Hall of Fame simply because they happened to not get caught while guys like Raffy Palmiero will have absolutely zero chance of making the Hall of Fame because he DID get caught.

On an unrelated note, Alex Ramirez won an MVP in Japan. He was last viewed in the US as a 25 year old not being able to hack it with the Pirates.

[18] Until someone gets caught after they get elected.  Preferably someone who’s been the subject of a few hundred “he did it the right way” articles penned by those voters who won’t vote for anyone who they consider “tainted.”

Posada’s surgery was fairly extensive. Given his age, I never thought that he would sniff 428 PA while continuing to be at least a credible catcher.

[20] Wouldn’t it be ironic if Jim Rice was outed?  Not that I’m accusing him of anything, but I’m pretty sure one of the arguments to get him in was that he hit all those HR w/o enhancement.

How on earth is Pudge not tainted as a juicer the way other players are?

I had thought he was suspected.  As in, was reported on “the list”.  That doesn’t mean he was, or even if he was that he is/was a user.  But at this point unless you make a big deal about it (Clemens), nobody cares.

I mean, would you be shocked if Posada was on a list somewhere?

They don’t do *that* kind of urine test…

Heyman:

The Yankees recently called the Blue Jays to express interest in superstar pitcher Roy Halladay. And while the Yankees made the very same call last summer with no hope of acquiring Halladay, this time they have a real reason to believe they may actually have a legitimate chance to make a blockbuster trade.

Cash is probably just doing his due diligence.

Cash is probably just doing his due diligence.

I can’t see a scenerio that doesn’t involve Montero AND at least one of Hughes/Chamberlain, plus several other parts.  I’m not sure if I’d be willing to do that for a pitcher in the last year of his contract.  B/c either A) he’s really not interested in signing with you so you’re giving away two or more potential stars for 1 year B) He’s inclined to sign with you anyway (money isn’t exactly a problem for them), so wait a year and keep the pieces.

Off topic: SG, you may have weighed in on this before but I’d love to get your POV on the value of WARP/WARP3 in evaluating players. I know that Win Shares is out of vogue, wondering about WARP.

WARP/WARP3 has two major issues.

1) They set replacement level way too low.  They may have corrected this recently, but they were generally about two wins too high for a full season player.

2) The fielding component of WARP was their FRAA/FRAR system, which is worse than worthless, especially post 1987 where we have play by play metrics that do a much better job of assessing defensive value (although still flawed as well).

The first thing is not really a big problem if you’re using it to compare two players, although it will tend to overrate any playing time edges.  But for me, the defensive component is a serious problem, and to me limits the use of the metric at all.

I think Sean Smith’s WAR numbers (available here) are probably the best way to compare players, at least in the Retrosheet era (post 1953).  His defensive system is far more well-designed than FRAA, and he includes non-SB baserunning as well.

Same reason why the bulpen eventually shaped up nicely.

What, lean on Joba and Marte?

Not necessarily saying Girardi didn’t do a good job with the bullpen, but whatever the game plan was during the regular season was basically thrown out the window, and wasn’t much reflected in the post season.

Cash is probably just doing his due diligence.

Maybe just using up some expiring rollover minutes.

[11] Actually, the Yankees were really proactive in changing the BP. A good number of the relievers that started the year in the BP did not finish the year on the Yankees. and as villainx pointed out the BP usage completely changed in the postseason as well.

[25] That’s a terrific resource, SG!

Something to think about: Would you make a case for Kenny Lofton as a Hall of Famer?

“Cash is probably just doing his due diligence.”

I’d guess he’s just monitoring so that somebody doesn’t get Halladay for a handful of B- prospects, like the Cliff Lee deal.

You don’t want to wake up one morning and find Boston got him for Jed Lowrie, Lars Anderson, Bowden and a couple of A ball arms.

Not sure about Lofton as a HOF.  He was probably the best CF in the AL for at least a few seasons, and I’m sure his high average/OBP, SB and fielding probably made up for the relative lack of power.  He also seemingly left the game while still being able to play passably well. 

I’d have to look at all the numbers, but I’d say he’s probably border-line.  Doesn’t seem like he’d be a bad selection at all, but I’d really be suprised if he actually got in.

Changing the subject again, here is a decent article about defensive metrics in ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=4666623

I can’t wait until SG is busting out “glove to throw times” on a regular basis.

I like how Posada is right in between Rizzuto and Rice on that list.

Changing the subject again, here is a decent article about defensive metrics in ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=4666623

From that link:

The eye test, however, tends to complicate matters. Several baseball executives told ESPN.com that they consider both Bay and Holliday below-average defenders, and one American League GM described Holliday as “brutal” with a glove.

I wonder if that was before or after he traded for for Yuniesky Betancourt?

You know who I’m surprised never gets suspected? Pedro. 2003, age 31, ERA+ of 210. Next year, age 32, ERA+ of 125. And he pitched 217 innings so I’m assuming he wasn’t injured. (He did bounce back to 145 the next year, but come on, it’s the NL. And he was never really healthy again.)

Re: Girardi, it could be something like limiting the morning/off-day workouts for the older guys to conserve energy for games.

Just remembered this:

“When Posada was asked if he worried that his name would get tainted by steroids, he replied, “I hope not. I think I’ve done things right. I don’t think I’ve put anything in my body that could be positive on one of those tests.”“

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2009/02/09/2009-02-09_derek_jeter_jorge_posada_vow_their_names-2.html

Wait forgot to include this:

“The Yankee catcher later reached out to a reporter to make sure that his remarks were understood; he was not hedging.

“I have never done it,” Posada said in a telephone interview. “Let me make myself clear: I will never be positive. I don’t take anything. I’ve never tested positive in anything and I never will.””

You know who I’m surprised never gets suspected? Pedro. 2003, age 31, ERA+ of 210. Next year, age 32, ERA+ of 125. And he pitched 217 innings so I’m assuming he wasn’t injured.

I think he had a rotator cuff tear that he pitched through, the one that eventually shelved him after 2006.  Side note, I was at his last start in 2006 in Atlanta where he got crushed (7 R, 2 HRs in 2.2 IP) and he was topping out around 84 on his fastball.

Fangraphs says his fastball went from 90.4 on average in 2003 to 89.5 in 2004.  Could be injury, could be getting of PEDs, could be inconsistencies in measurements, who knows?  The big thing was his HR/FB went from 4.0% (flukishly low) to 10.2%, which is around league average.  None of his other peripherals were that much worse in 2004.

I’d probably bet Pedro was on some sort of PEDs at some point, but I’d bet that about 80% of the players.

I’d have to look at all the numbers, but I’d say he’s probably border-line.  Doesn’t seem like he’d be a bad selection at all, but I’d really be suprised if he actually got in.

The reason why I asked this was: I looked at Smith’s 500 best position player list. Lofton ranks just ahead of Tim Raines in that list. Many saber-friendly writers speak glowingly of Raines and how his vote shares represent all that is wrong with BBWAA voting. Yet, by at least one objective measure, Lofton, who is unlikely to be endorsed by saber community, had a better career than Tim Raines. Or for that matter, Mark McGwire.

But whatever the game plan was during the regular season was basically thrown out the window, and wasn’t much reflected in the post season.

Too be fair, he did give several guys chances and they failed.  Also, given the off-days, and the fact he no longer had to save guys for anything, plus starters (generally) working late in games, riding a few guys is OK.  Especially as if he loses a game during the season in order to get guys some work/rest other guys, it isn’t that big a deal.  Losing a game in the post-season though, is a big deal.

To be clear, I don’t think Girardi was perfect in the post-season, especially wrt Robertson.  But there *are* different considerations.

Yet, by at least one objective measure, Lofton, who is unlikely to be endorsed by saber community, had a better career than Tim Raines. Or for that matter, Mark McGwire.

I think the SABR community will get behind Lofton eventually.  They can only have so many crusades (against Rice, against Morris, for Blyleven, for Raines), plus Lofton is still a couple of years from eligibility.  Once he starts getting closer to eligibility, and some of the other guys either get in or are no longer eligible, they’ll turn attention to others.

[32] Remember that this is only through 2008.  After this season is added in Posada should be anywhere from a little above Munson, to a little below Ralph Kiner.

I always laugh at the “Posada has 5 rings” thing.  I reminds of a NFL skills competition I was watching as a kid and Phil Simms was announcing on a 3 man team.  At some point non Simms announcer 1 make a joke about Simms.  NSA 2 said “He has two Super Bowls” to which NSA 1 replied “One of which he actually played in.”

I looked at Smith’s 500 best position player list. Lofton ranks just ahead of Tim Raines in that list.

Career value and defense and all that have a place, but you can’t not look at peak value. And, this will only make me look more like I don’t know what I’m saying cause I’m going at it rather simply by using OPS+, but Lofton’s top 3-5 OPS+ seasons is pretty different from the top 3-5 OPS+ seasons of Raines.

Too be fair, he did give several guys chances and they failed.

I’ve said for most of the season that I like the Yankee bullpen, a lot. But Girardi’s use of the bullpen was ... I don’t know, a little odd. Maybe it was due to the injuries and all that, but I didn’t get a sense of having a rhythm to it, where guys were used with enough regularity, and what they could do and couldn’t do was optimally explored. Which is not meant to slam the guy, he probably did no worse that what most other managers would have done, and more likely, worked things out much better than most managers.

[40] - That should be “He has two Super Bowl rings.”

Career value and defense and all that have a place, but you can’t not look at peak value. And, this will only make me look more like I don’t know what I’m saying cause I’m going at it rather simply by using OPS+, but Lofton’s top 3-5 OPS+ seasons is pretty different from the top 3-5 OPS+ seasons of Raines.

You don’t have to look at peak (and I agree with you, you do have to look at the peak), just look at career averages: Raines is at 123, and Lofton at 107. Which essentially implies that Lofton made up all that ground with his defense.

But that is an area which is quantified with tons and tons of uncertainty. I think that is the main reason why Lofton’s case will not find a Jonah Keri, unlike Raines.

Which essentially implies that Lofton made up all that ground with his defense.

I think it’s more position-adjustment, since Raines’s offense in LF is being compared to other LF, whereas Lofton’s being compared to CF.

From 1993 to 1999, Lofton hit .316/.390/.443 with 365 SB/ 94 CS while playing around +8 defense per season according to Smith’s TotalZone.  I don’t have my Zone Rating database handy to see what it says, but that’s a very good peak.  Around 40 WAR over seven seasons, which is around 5.7 WAR per season.  Generally, any season at 5.0 WAR is at least fringe-MVP worthy.

[44] SG, thanks for the clarification. That makes much more sense to me.

I know he was at the last legs of his career when he came to Yankees, and Joe Torre was just adamant on snubbing anyone who threatened to take Bernie Williams position and did not have a big profile (like Johnny Damon, a year later), but I think he could probably have helped the Yankees if Joe Torre had given him the opportunity. I understand why Yankee fans may not have a good appreciation for Lofton as a player, but he was a very, very good CF at his prime. And he sustained some very useful skills over a long period of time.

“Generally, any season at 5.0 WAR is at least fringe-MVP worthy.”

Note that I argued you up to a 4.5 WAR peak as plausible for Gardner the other day…

I agree that Torre should have given Lofton a chance to prove that he could contribute in 2004. Unfortunately, when it was apparent that he wasn’t going to get that chance, it almost seemed as though he decided to pack it in.

Apropos Torre, I found this interesting:

In a recent interview with Los Angeles Times columnist T.J. Simers, Torre and his wife Ali both explicitly compared Steinbrenner to Joe Torre Sr., the wife-beating ogre who threw Torre’s mother down the stairs when he found out she was pregnant with Joe Jr.

I have to think that Torre’s wife intended to use the Steinbrenner analogy in a very narrow context, and that Torre, ever the dutiful husband, just went with it, because he can’t be so bitter that he would compare George to his physically abusive father in any meaningful sense.

As an aside, Stick Michael once made an amusing comment on the Torre/Steinbrenner relationship during a YES broadcast of a Yankee game a few years ago. When he was asked how Torre was able to handle the pressure that Steinbrenner sometimes imposes on his manager, Stick replied that Torre never had to deal with the “old George,” apparently indicating that by the mid-‘90s, Steinbrenner had already mellowed somewhat from the man he was in the ‘70s and ‘80s.

Note that I argued you up to a 4.5 WAR peak as plausible for Gardner the other day…

I do think that’s a stretch, even though it’s numerically plausible, but it is probably worth noting that when I looked at the Brett Gardner Skillset, Lofton was the best on the list.

And I agree in regards to Lofton as a Yankee in 2004, he didn’t get a chance to contribute as much as he could have, although Bernie was still a reasonably good hitter.  Seems like a Bernie at DH, Lofton in CF alignment would have been better than Ruben Sierra DHing for 338 PAs of .244/.296/.456.

Wouldn’t have mattered anyway since they canceled the ALCS after Game 3.

“The Brett Gardner Skillset” sounds like an ‘80s techno-pop group.

Here’s the Torres inteview.  I agree it was probably not intended as “Your boss reminds me of your dad, Goebbels, because they were both such good speakers”, but as reported it reads pretty badly.

Easily my favorite Yankee.

[52] 1. Posted at 7:36:32 am on Wednesday, March 4, 2009 by MC in VA

“The Brett Gardner Skillset” sounds like an indie-rock band name.  I’ll read the post now.

On purpose?

[55] ?

The Brett Gardner Skillset is obviously post-rock.

We Were Promised Jetpacks?

It’s clearly math rock, a la Minus the Bear.

[48-9]  It’s funny that this should come up on the heels of the previous thread’s brief discussion of Righetti.  MC gave us the Yankees’ public justification from 1984 when they converted Righetti to a closer: that he had had more success the first time through the batting order.  This was probably true, as it is probably true of most pitchers.  Regardless, I’m pretty sure it was a bullshit excuse that the GM at the time (Stick? Clyde King? Does it matter?) had to put forth to the media because what had really happened was this:  From 1981 onward George Steinbrenner was even more batshit insane than normal.  Among many other actions , he insisted on getting rid of all the players who had not bothered to hide their lack of respect for him, even if that player was the team captain (Nettles) or an all-time great closer (Goose).  I figuer he would have gotten rid of Munson too, if, well . . . y’know.  So the GM couldn’t offer Goose a contract when FA arrived.  When the GM said to Steinbrenner, who is supposed to close games, Steinbrenner said something like, what do I care?  Righetti can do it.  He only won 14 games this year anyway.  So they moved Righetti and were able to tell the media that letting Goose go was a baseball decision.

It may sound implausible to more recent or younger fans that the most storied franchise in baseball would make decisions this way.  But that’s very much what George was like in those days.  And the thing was, everybody knew it!  Which is why when Reggie came back as an Angel in 1982 the entire Stadium chanted “Steinbrenner sucks” for 10 minutes.  There was a book out in the mid-1980s called <u>Steinbrenner’s Yankees</U> that laid it all out and was a good read to boot.  (At least I thought so at the time, but I was a kid.  I figure it’s as cringe-worthy as most MSM sportswriting.)

[60] Murray Chass’s take on the 1981 WS:

Was the crime the loss of the Series after the Yankees won the first two games? Was it the owner’s public apology to the people of New York for his team’s performance? Or was it the alleged fight George Steinbrenner had with two young men in an elevator at a Los Angeles hotel?

The Yankees’ trip to Los Angeles for a three-game interleague series this weekend is their first visit there since those devastating three games in 1981. That visit was memorable for the Steinbrenner fight, but the most unforgettable game moment in the series actually came back in the Bronx, when Yankees Manager Bob Lemon pinch-hit for Tommy John with two on and two out in the fourth inning of a 1-1 game in Game 6.

John had shut out the Dodgers for seven innings in Game 2 and was doing fine in Game 6. Nevertheless, Bobby Murcer batted for John and flied out. The Dodgers proceeded to break the game open, and clinch the series, by scoring seven runs in the next two innings against Yankees relievers.

Why did Lemon bat for John? All indications point to Steinbrenner as the reason. In the days and months after the game, players said they heard that Steinbrenner had called the dugout and told Lemon that the Yankees had to score runs that night and that the manager shouldn’t miss any chances to score.

The quotes in this excerpt from the Torre interview linked above are just wacky:

“The parallel was very similar to what you had with your father,” she tells him. “Some of the people in the Yankee organization were bullying you and not treating you with respect all along. You kept trying to survive until you got worn down.”

Well yeah, except that unlike a little boy, Joe was free to walk away at any time, and as a result of the millions that the disrespectful Yankee organization was paying him, Torre and his wife have been afforded more freedom than they could have ever imagined, including the ability to have a platform to make an impact in the lives of victims of domestic violence.

and was a good read to boot.  (At least I thought so at the time, but I was a kid.  I figure it’s as cringe-worthy as most MSM sportswriting.)

Too late, you admitted it. Now go make out with ... actually, I don’t know no NY MSM figure to say.

[62] Right, that’s what caught my attention - the juxtaposition, the context of the comparison was so odd.  I guess there probably was something from Torre’s perspective about the situation with Steinbrenner that was quite dysfunctional in that way - he could have walked away but found it emotionally hard because of his history.  Maybe that helps me understand some of Torre’s rancor when he finally left despite what seemed to me like a non-insulting contract offer and explains part of the reason for the book.

Frog- Madden and Klapisch (SIC) co-wrote a very nice tome detailing the many mistakes made by the Boss and his minions in the 80’s. Worst Team Money Could Buy. Nice read indeed. Dem days was dark. I never speculate on the the Munson to Cleveland shit. I may have crashed if that ever happened.
I’m still aglow from the 2 weeks ago events.
Rilke- Nice two c you phinally mizzpell sumthing.
Granpa Simpson? Are I that crochety?
I was just praising dak for thinking outside the box and having the balls to risk a rlyw amish type shunning. As you know.. fundameltizzm suxx.

How dare dakranker use a computer? Blasted technology!

“Are I that crochety?”

Just thought it was your turn to have the piss taken out of you.

“mizzpell”

Yep, just no escape - I sensed there was something wrong, and even looked up the phrase, but of course the googlescape is dense with errors.

Via Kepner:

“The time you start thinking you have enough pitching, that’s when problems start,” Cashman said. “I don’t think you ever have enough pitching.”

I wonder who Cash will target.

[68] Whoever it is, this has Joba/Hughes to start the season in teh ate written all over it.

If that’s because they obtain a top of the rotation stater who can be counted on for 180-200 IP, then I like it.

If it’s to waste $6M on let’s just make up a theoretical starter, Sen Bheets, who is “low risk, high reward” type all the kids are talking about, meaning he is a lock to get injured, then I don’t like it.

SG - For Posada at least, could you put up a comparison of the BR for the projections versus actual, using the projected playing time instead of the actual playing time?  Seems like Pecota not only missed way low on a rate basis, but also really missed on playing time.

SG - For Posada at least, could you put up a comparison of the BR for the projections versus actual, using the projected playing time instead of the actual playing time?

Sure, here’s the data for Posada.

system: PA, BR
chone: 499 PA, 68 BR
marcel: 356 PA, 53 BR
pecota: 257 PA, 31 BR
tht: 362 PA, 51 BR
zips: 376 PA, 56 BR
cairo: 431 PA, 66 BR
average: 380 PA, 54 BR
actuals: 438 PA, 71 BR

Wow, 31 BR vs 71.  That’s ... quite a difference.