First post thread hijack:

Olney was just on M & M saying that Halladay has informed the Blue Jays that he will not waive his NTC once the season starts.

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star says that the Jays “need a pitcher and a position player ready right now.”

27 runs below average and it looked great.  Guess thats just recent history clouding my judgment.

And BTW, today is the deadline to offer arbitration to FAs.

They’re still a so-so defensive team (at best), but it was way better than before.

ARod & Tex: both missing for a month or so, then great.  The end.

I have an irrational mancrush on Frankie Cervelli.  Great name, great enthusiasm, love the defense, and there’s enough in the bat to wishcast a decent line (in a “he won’t kill your offense” sort of way).

I think part of it is my general frustration with the common phenomenon of the old backup catcher who can’t hit a lick and whose defense hasn’t matched his reputation for years (or, in some cases, ever).

[5] BUT AJ PITCHES SO MUCH BETTER TO MOLINO!!11!!

Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star says that the Jays “need a pitcher and a position player ready right now.”

Yanks have a pitcher ready, but I don’t know about a position player, unless you count Austin Jackson.  Red Sox, it seems, are in the same boat with Laptop as the ready pitcher and someone like Lars Anderson as a not-so-ready position player.  I’m not down with the Phils system, so I don’t know if they have a position prospect ready to go, but they do have a pitcher in Happ.

I have a feeling that Halladay will end up being relatively cheap.  The Jays are in a corner and the Yanks can wait out the negotiations.  Sox have more holes to fill and less flexibility than the Yanks (it looks like Bay is a goner and they don’t have as many of their own free agents to resign, meaning trades or signing other teams’ FAs are needed). 

With patience, maybe they can swing a deal for Halladay like they did for Clemens a decade or so earlier: three young prospects that weren’t so great.

I have an irrational mancrush on Frankie Cervelli.

No mancrush here, but I do like him much more than Molino, especially considering the Yanks backup C will probably be catching a lot next year.  AJ Burnett can deal with Cervelli.  That’s what happens when you sign a big-money contract with the Yanks.  Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

No mancrush here, but I do like him much more than Molino, especially considering the Yanks backup C will probably be catching a lot next year.

Do you really believe he will be any better than Molino this year?  I prefer him b/c he’s cheaper but in reality he’s probably a little worse at throwing out basestealers and a good bit faster which is essentially a wash.  I would be surprised if throws up something noticeably better than an OPS just over .600.
Seems to me the only real advantage is cost, which matters a little but not much when calculating the worth of a BUC for the Yanks.

THAT is why Jeter deserved Sportsman of the Year.

What is your collective sage opinion as to the differences between ZR and UZR, which often seem striking?  Is there are discernable rhyme or reason?  Anything there that might help us in reading these numbers?
And for the vast majority of players who underperformed their defensive projections - I really, really hope that we ought to expect a rebound?  At least in the Cańo-Teix age group, if not in the Posada age group.

SG, thanks yet again!!!!!!!!
Fascinating, actually.

Do you really believe he will be any better than Molino this year?

I question whether Molino can play well for longer periods of time, if indeed Posada will need a lot more rest.  I think the ceiling is rising for Cervelli and is falling for Molino.  All things being equal, I’ll take the guy on the up escalator.  Give the kid a shot.

Give the kid a shot.

I agree, I just worry that people are expecting way more offensively than he can deliver.

What is your collective sage opinion as to the differences between ZR and UZR, which often seem striking?  Is there are discernable rhyme or reason?  Anything there that might help us in reading these numbers?

Zone rating treats every fieldable chance in the same way.  If a ball hit into a player’s zone of responsibility is fielded at least 50% of the time, it’s considered a chance.  Then you just divided the chances that were converted into outs by the total chances to get your zone rating value.

UZR rates plays on the degree of difficulty.  If a play is made 20% of the time, it still counts as a positive or negative if it’s made/not made.  It also adjusts for the ground ball/fly ball tendencies of the staff (ground ball pitchers yield easier ground ball chances, fly ball pitchers yield easier fly ball chances).  It makes another adjustment for handedness of the pitchers, lefties and righties give up a different distribution of chances in both location and difficulty at certain positions.

When it diverges and zone rating looks better than UZR, it generally means the player saw an easier than typical distribution of chances.  When UZR looks better than zone rating, it means the player saw more difficult chances and gets extra credit for it.

Do you really believe he will be any better than Molino this year?

FWIW, CAIRO projects Cervelli at .251/.322/.357, compared to Molina at .223/.268/.312.  Defensively, Cervelli played well in the majors but obviously we have severe sample size issues.  His defensive scouting reports have generally been pretty good too.

At least from my perspective, Teix appears to be a significantly better defensive 1Bman than defensive metrics suggest.

So that would suggest that Teixeira, for example, got a much greater number of difficult plays than projected… and did very poorly on them, on average?

So that would suggest that Teixeira, for example, got a much greater number of difficult plays than projected… and did very poorly on them, on average

No, it actually would mean that he got a higher percentage of easy chances since his zone rating was quite good.  It would also mean that he didn’t do well on the difficult chances he did get I guess.

Don’t get hung up what one year’s defensive metrics say.  The difference between a +10 defender and a -10 defender over a full season is something like one extra play made every eight games.

[13]  Thats a bigger delta between the two than I expected.  I suppose thats b/c I would have guessed less difference between the slugging percentage of the two.
Defensively Cervelli is well regarded but Molina is regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the majors (cautions about evaluating catcher defense apply).

A few things that defensive metrics may miss on Teixeira: his ability to make accurate throws (often from his knees) and how good he is at scooping balls in the dirt and keeping his foot on the bag while stretching/jumping for high throws.

I’m really looking forward to the unveiling of hitF/X and what it will do for defensive metrics.

I think it is important to look at a range of defensive metrics. UZR is probably the best as a stand alone, but Zone and RZR have their places as well.

Particularly, I like RZR’s out of zone plays.

The difference between a +10 defender and a -10 defender over a full season is something like one extra play made every eight games.

Of course, one extra hit every eight games is the difference between a .270 hitter and a .300 hitter.  Or almost the difference between Robinson Cano v.2008 and Robinson Cano v.2007.

FWIW, CAIRO projects Cervelli at .251/.322/.357, compared to Molina at .223/.268/.312.

Sweet.  My “wishcast” line I referenced earlier for Frankie is .270/.330/.365. 

His defensive scouting reports from the minors, IIRC, aren’t just good.  His rep is apparently excellent.  He flashed just that in the majors (SSS, yes).  He’s got Molina’s arm coupled with twice the agility (ah, youth).  And he can run better than most catchers.  If one believes pitchers really perform better when throwing to certain catchers (I don’t), the numbers (SSS again) there were excellent as well.

The upgrade is likely to be small, but I’ll take any upgrade I can get.  And this one comes with a payroll reduction.

It appears Pedroia could play SS. Too lazy to provide link.

I think it’s spin intended to keep the price down in their pursuit of an actual SS.

Defensively Cervelli is well regarded but Molina <strike>is</strike>was regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the majors (cautions about evaluating catcher defense apply).

To me, visually, Molina slipped last year.  The numbers back that up (SSS), and that Cervelli may in fact be better than him.  I’ve read some other attempts at quantifying catcher defense (don’t recall where, but I believe I found it linked off of FanGraphs) indicated Cervelli may have been one of the better defensive catchers in the majors last year.

I’d have to think in 2010 Molina and Cervelli would be roughly equal, but with the obvious cost savings (and 40-man roster savings).  Plus Cervelli has a chance to break out offensively.  Note that “breaking out” for him would be putting up a line like 290/340/380, which probably makes him borderline starting material.

It appears Pedroia could play SS.

If true the BoSox would do well to shift him over and sign the O’Dawg.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4701415

Chip Caray out at TBS!

Woohoo!

[24] That’s basically what Cervelli has been through his MiL career. Good average, mediocre OBP and little power. He looks like a good backup and an excusable starter since he’s a catcher. Cervelli certainly seems a better choice than Molina.

Yanks have a pitcher ready, but I don’t know about a position player, unless you count Austin Jackson.

“Ready position player” isn’t very definitive.  Ready for what?  Yankees have a ready corner OF in the Melky Cabrerra.  No really.  Playing LF/RF he’s probably about a 1 WAR player, maybe even 2 WAR, which is DEFINITELY a major-leaguer, if not an every-day player.

In the minors they have Kevin Russo, who I think is ready to play in the majors, as a utility IF (not to mention Pena).  Or Juan Miranda, who would probably be a 1-2 WAR player as a 1B (there are rumors Toronto is looking to move Overbay).

Yankees have lots of cost-controlled (less so with Melky), ML ready players.  But probably none that project to be better than average at best next year, more likely 4th OF/utility IF types.

Pedroia is above average defensively, so it isn’t too unreasonable.  Does he have a weak arm?

The Jays may prefer Gardner over Melky. He’s cheaper and his skillset could translate better on turf.

For what it’s worth, the Yankees are 13th in the majors according to BP’s PADE (Position adjusted defensive efficiency) with a score of -0.39 and 7th in the majors in DE with .097. Defensive Efficiency is the rate at which balls in play are converted into outs.

I’ll take it.

[30] Shh!  I’m hoping they won’t notice him!  The thing is Melky “looks” more like a corner OF, and the Jays may not be willing to take Wells out of CF (regardless of if it is the smart thing to do).  Hey, if we’re going to rob them, let’s do it the right way!

Pedroia was drafted as a SS.  He played more SS than 2B at AAA.  That was only three years ago.  It’s not completely ridiculous to think that he could move back.  But yeah, it’s mostly a negotiating ploy for the benefit of Scutaro’s agents.  Nothing wrong with that.

Shh!  I’m hoping they won’t notice him!

Sorry, but I’m pretty sure they’ll notice that he’ll work for the minimum for two more years while Melky will cost at least a couple of million this year.

So then it’s Kennedy, Gardner, Miranda and Romine.  Deal?

Anything more than Kennedy and Gardner is too much IMHO. The players we lose are only a part of the cost. The Yanks will have to pay Halliday what he’s worth.

It may be a negotiating ploy, but I think they’d at least consider actually doing it (O-Dog for 2nd base).  Scutaro screams “regression candidate” and they know it.  They’ve been burned by the SS position for years and years.  They have a homegrown player they KNOW is a very good player who is willing to move and is likely to be at least acceptable defensively at the position.

Try it for a season as a short-term measure while you hunt for a long-term solution for SS.  Why not?

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Halladay is a 6 WAR pitcher in 2010.  That’s worth about $27M, and will cost about $17M.  Let’s say that the four guys I mentioned are also worth about 6 WAR combined.  They’ll cost about $2M.  So the Jays are coming out about $35M ahead, which probably seems really lopsided in their favor.  But that’s before you consider the benefit of concentrating 6 WAR in one player as opposed to spreading it out among four.  It’s also before you consider the benefit of keeping Halladay from going to a competitor, the benefit of getting first crack at signing him to an extension, or the risk of him getting hurt or declining.  From the Jays side, there’s also the potential upside of relatively young players and the risk that they don’t develop.

[35] - I don’t think there’s any way Halladay gets traded unless the acquiring team gives up way too much.  I’d be willing to bet that a 1st season GM would rather live with “Why didn’t you trade Halladay????” than “You gave up ROY HALLADAY for THIS????”

They’ve been burned by the SS position for years and years.

Right, so they might as well go back to getting burned by the 2B position for a few years.  Or am I the only one who remembers the Jose Offerman contract?

[38] So are you saying you don’t think he’ll get traded, or are you saying that you think some team will be stupid enough to give up way too much?

Sorry, but I’m pretty sure they’ll notice that he’ll work for the minimum for two more years while Melky will cost at least a couple of million this year.

Sure, but part of the question becomes if they - and I stress they since that’s more important than us - view Melky as a potential starter in a corner OF and Gardner as a 4th OF.  If Melky is a starting corner OF they may feel the $2M (or whatever) is still a bargain.  Probably irrelevent b/c if they are looking for an OF from the Yanks it is likely Jackson.

So then it’s Kennedy, Gardner, Miranda and Romine.  Deal?

Can we keep Romine?  I’d be willing to throw in a signed Derek Jeter SI magazine instead?

Right, so they might as well go back to getting burned by the 2B position for a few years.  Or am I the only one who remembers the Jose Offerman contract?

You think Orlando Hudson for a year or two would be a bad thing for them?  Pedroia/Hudson vs Scutaro/Pedroia.  Including the money… I dunno, I think it’s worth pondering.  I’m not saying you definitely do it.  It depends on what Scutaro and Hudson are willing to take.

I don’t remember the contract itself, but I sure remember Jose Errorman.

[40] - I think it’s a coin-flip.  But basically, I’m fairly confident it won’t be the Yankees.  Because way too much is multiplied by “you traded ROY HALLADAY to the freakin’ YANKEES?????” premium, and it gets insane.

OT, I found this interesting.

[43] One thing we *don’t* know - has Halladay privately told the Toronto GM what teams he is willing to play for, and are the Yankees the only team on that list making a serious bid?  That is possible - not probable, I doubt even likely, but possible.  If so, when all is said and done, they may take the best bid by the Yankees at the end of the day and save face by Halladay telling the press he indicated to the Jays the Yankees were the only team showing interest he would accept a trade to.

Chances are, he ends up in Boston or Baltimore, or even Philly (I believe he’s indicated he wants to stay in the northeast).  You never know though; six years ago I would have guaranteed you ARod wouldn’t be in pinstripes the following April, and I doubt many would have disagreed.

This is completely POOMA, but I just think that Anthopoulos won’t pull the trigger on a deal unless it’s a complete and total win.  If I were the GM, I think I’d be very hesitant to make a deal like this even if it did make sense.  Even if Roy comes out and tells people he was only green-lighting a deal to the Yankees, the GM still has the option to not trade him to the Yanks.  It’s going to make a lot of very friendly Canadians very, very angry.  Not sure I would want that.  Then again, maybe I’m overly sensitive to criticism.

I really doubt that Halladay ends up in Baltimore.  Not only is Angelos unlikely to be interested in paying him, but Roy has made it clear that he wants to go someplace where he can win.

What about the Angels?

Or Juan Miranda, who would probably be a 1-2 WAR player as a 1B (there are rumors Toronto is looking to move Overbay).

Maybe the Yankees could take Overbay and his $7M off their hands (I think someone suggested this on another thread already) and include Miranda in the package? Miranda only makes $400K next season and his arbitration clock hasn’t even started ticking yet. Yankees could just stick Overbay at DH for one season, then let him walk. He wouldn’t be the best option at DH, but he would be the most likely to stay healthy. Also, he has extreme platoon splits over his career, so he can sit against LHP and they could still use the DH to half-rest Posada/Jeter/ARod.

Assuming the Jays would get back 3 other “free” players, Doc/Overbay for Miranda/???/???/??? would save them ~$21M next season, which is the amount they get the pleasure of paying Vernon Wells next season!

What about the Angels?

The lost in the ALCS to the Yankees. What about them? S*ck it, Scoscscscia!

Having said that (Curb!), they likely don’t want to pay Doc either as they are letting a cheaper, younger starter walk (Lackey) because they don’t want to pay him. The Angels only pay big money to outfielders.

Doc/Overbay for Miranda/???/???/???

I already told you who ???, ???, and ??? are.

...the amount they get the pleasure of paying Vernon Wells next season!

And the season after that.  And the season after that.  And the season…

[49] - Roy Halladay (SP/OF).  There, now the Angels can’t refuse.

Feinsand:

The Yankees haven’t made any official announcements yet, but according to a source, the team is unlikely to offer arbitration to any of its free agents before tonight’s deadline.

[52] - Not offering it to Damon is just stupid.  If you can get him for one year do it.  If he rejects his negotiating power is knee capped by the fact that other teams would have to give up their #1.  What’s the worry with Damon?  Given his comps (Abreu) and what he got over the last two off-seasons how much chance is there he gets a raise at all let alone a significant one?

Sherman says the same thing:

As I reported this morning, #Yankees will not be offering arbitration to any of their free agents: Damon, Pettitte, Matsui, Nady, Molina

Yeah, really don’t understand the Damon decision. Damon at $15MM isn’t a good deal but it isn’t the worst either.

Maybe this indicates a harder limit to the Yankees budget than anticipated.

As I posted the other day, if Cot’s is correct that their 2010 payroll currently stands at $170m, it’s hard to justify offering Damon arbitration if they think he would accept the offer and end up with $15m, because if that happens and they also want to re-sign Pettitte (10m) and possibly trade for Halladay ($15.75m), keeping the payroll at or just under $200m would be almost impossible.

When is the deadline for players to accept?  Isn’t it only like a week or something?  Seems like you’d really have to wonder if a player like Damon represented by an agent like Boras would take arbitration without even trying to get a multi-year contract first.  But what the hell do I know?

[58 Dec. 7th

if payroll is an issue, then let pettitte walk.  Damon for 1 year is perfect, and worth the extra 5 million or so that he’d get in arbitration.

A one year DH who can also play LF a lot?  That’s EXACTLY what the yankees need.  Plus, if the Yankees traded for Halladay, they wouldn’t need Andy at all.

[58] - That’s what I was thinking.  Pretty much the only Boras client I can think of accepting arbitration is Maddux, but that’s probably my limited memory.

Last week, Cash said:

“I think you have to look more at the rotation. You have to look obviously at left field. Our discussion will have to be whether you retain a Johnny Damon, whether you promote an Austin Jackson or you look elsewhere altogether. The rotation, you never have enough starting pitching…”

If pitching is their priority, it’s hard to let Pettitte walk until the market for Halladay (or Lackey or even Hardin) sets itself, and that could take some time.

Having said that, I thought they would offer Damon arbitration, but I thought the same thing about Abreu a year ago.

“and possibly trade for Halladay”

As shown in recent threads (assuming no one can come up a big correction factor the calculations are missing), his value doesn’t square with what the Jays will likely need back from a PR standpoint.  Maybe it’s useful to have the money to bluff with to help keep him from Boston, but then the RS make about the same value calculation as the Yankees and don’t actually know that the Yankees’ payroll is x+/-d and definitely < y.

[63] Their valuation model may be different. I’m not saying that their view is correct, but it’s possible that they are willing to overpay at least beyond the point that many of us would consider reasonable.

Or they may have another high cost player in mind.

“if payroll is an issue, then let pettitte walk.  Damon for 1 year is perfect, and worth the extra 5 million or so that he’d get in arbitration.

A one year DH who can also play LF a lot?  That’s EXACTLY what the yankees need.  Plus, if the Yankees traded for Halladay, they wouldn’t need Andy at all. “

I disagree with this totally.  They need Andy way more than Damon.

If they get Halladay, Joba or Hughes is going, so they still only have 4 SPs.

Damon at $15M is a huge overpay.  They can get Cameron for <$10M.

Andy works at a discount; he’ll take something like 1/10.  To get an equivalent pitcher you’ll need to go something like 4/60 if one’s even available.

Having said that, I thought they would offer Damon arbitration, but I thought the same thing about Abreu a year ago.

And I still thing that would have been the right call as well.  It doesn’t matter what he ended up getting, I just don’t think there was any way players were looking for 1 year deals at that point.  At that age they are looking to cash in on one more 3-4 year deal.  No way Boras admits he can’t get Damon a better deal than a no raise arbitration settlement.  I just can’t see it.

Abreu got 2/$19, I wouldn’t expect Damon to get much more, and the Yankees seem to be open to signing him for more than one year, so arbitration might be a bad risk.  I’m still sort of surprised.

Or they may have another high cost player in mind.

yeah, if they are looking at Holliday they might not want to have an overpriced Damon.

Abreu got 2/$19, I wouldn’t expect Damon to get much more, and the Yankees seem to be open to signing him for more than one year, so arbitration might be a bad risk.  I’m still sort of surprised.

I hope.  If he signs for that I’ll gladly admit I was wrong.  But I don’t see them getting him for just 2 years and I REALLY don’t want them to go over two years.  Honestly, I think they only need him for one.

yeah, if they are looking at Holliday they might not want to have an overpriced Damon.

I worry Holliday will be over priced because of his position in the market.  I’d rather have a player overpriced for one year than 6-8.  Hopefully I wrong about him too but I see him getting $20M per for that long and I’m not sure I want to tie up that much salary on him.

If they get Halladay, Joba or Hughes is going, so they still only have 4 SPs.

Then they shouldn’t get Halladay.

If the Blue Jays are going into this thing “needing” to get a Chamberlain, a Hughes, a Kershaw, or a Buchholz, then other GMs should be hanging up on Anthopoulos.  And I think they will.

So then it’s Kennedy, Gardner, Miranda and Romine.  Deal?

If that were actually a possibility, I would be on-board. If they got Doc, retain Pettitte, and don’t have to trade Hughes/Joba, IPK isn’t really needed for SP depth. Gardner seems to just be part of a place holding job-share with Melky until AJax is ready. Miranda is completely blocked. Romine isn’t Jesus. I don’t know if it works out WAR-wise, but I really just care about getting Doc without giving up Joba/Hughes/Jesus/AJax. Any deal that can accomplish that is fine with me.

Probably not splashy enough for the Toronto GM to sell it to the three existing Blue Jays fans.

BTW, Marlins not offering arbitration to Nick Johnson, so everybody’s favorite irrational mancrush lefty DH option is available.

Probably not splashy enough…

OK, then let’s go with the take Overbay back to be the lefty DH and save Toronto some more cash idea and make it Cervelli, Kennedy, Melancon, Miranda and Russo.  Still not all that flashy, but I’d wager there’s more actual value there than in whatever package the Jays wind up getting.

If the Blue Jays are going into this thing “needing” to get a Chamberlain, a Hughes, a Kershaw, or a Buchholz, then other GMs should be hanging up on Anthopoulos.

Other than selling the trade to the public, I am not sure the Toronto GM should be going after one of those guys. I mean, Hughes/Joba would be nice acquisitions for them, but if they are trading Doc and looking to rebuild around the package they get, I don’t see them as ideal guys. Hughes and Joba are both entering their last “free” year salary-wise, and will enter arbitration next off-season. Wouldn’t you want guys who are just about to break into the big leagues or are maybe one year away, who you would still get 3 “free” years from and 6 total years of service time? Doesn’t Toronto have to look at rebuilding loooong term? How would 1 free year of Hughes/Joba, followed by 3 increasingly expensive seasons, then losing them to FA help them?

The Jays can be outspent by 3 other teams in their division, and the fourth team just built a very nice team that is still young enough and cost controlled that they should be contenders for the next few seasons. Shouldn’t Toronto be looking to build a team that will be 2008 Rays-esque about four years from now? That’s when the Rays players will be getting/have gotten expensive to the point they will lose some of them, and the Yankees might be handicapped again with too many big contracts.

MC, I am also down with the Cervelli/IPK/Melancon/Miranda/Russo for Doc/Overbay.

Tons of value in their. Overall, they save over $20M and turn one year of service from each of Doc and Overbay (and the possibility of a late first round draft pick and two sandwich picks) during a season which the best case scenario is a 4th place finish into something like 28 years of service for players who likely all end up as better than replacement level. A couple of those guys having nice upsides. Four of whom likely start next season on their big league roster, which saves them even more money as they wouldn’t have to sign a BUC and a reliever.

Wouldn’t you want guys who are just about to break into the big leagues or are maybe one year away, who you would still get 3 “free” years from and 6 total years of service time?

Yes.  Of course.  Absolutely.  And I’d wager that Anthopoulos is more than smart enough to know this, and to realize that getting four or five guys who could all be useful parts of the next Jays team that contends is a much better deal than trying to get one guy who might be the next star that you can’t afford to keep when you’re starting your next rebuilding plan.

If that’s the case, then the Jays may prefer Romine and Banuelos instead of Cervelli and Miranda.

“Shouldn’t Toronto be looking to build a team that will be 2008 Rays-esque about four years from now?”

I don’t see how they could achieve that without tanking for a long time.  I doubt the Yankees’ entire farm system gets them very far along that path.  Esp. assuming the Rays are likely to be good for a long time - at the start of the season Fangraphs had them contending for “the next half decade at least”.  Bribing the commissioner’s office to move them to another division might be more productive.  (Maybe the central could be renamed “AL East Second” and every few years the ALE and ALES bottom and top teams get swapped, resp.)

I support both the plural and the singular of ale.

at the start of the season Fangraphs had them contending for “the next half decade at least”

And the Rays managed to contend for about half a season.  Then they traded a pitcher that I’m sure Fangraphs (and everyone else in the projection business) figured to be a mainstay of their rotation for most of that half-decade.  Their flash-in-the-pan bullpen turned back into a bunch of pumpkins (sorry, I’m in a metaphor-mixing mood).  Their all-star catcher went from giving them 2.7 WAR for league minimum to being replacement level for $2.1M and is likely to be non-tendered.  I could go on.  And on.  They’ve got a lot of work to do.  Unless they go in with the Jays on that realignment request you mentioned.

This situation is effed now that Halladay won’t waive his NTC mid season. Anthopolous can’t likely get any package that would allow him to save face with his fans. I just don’t see any of the expected teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Angels…. Dodgers?) stepping up to the plate with something that the Toronto fans could swallow. He might have had some leverage with a team in a playoff hunt that needed Halladay to put them over the top.

I’m glad.. this situation is similar to Santana. I don’t want to the Yankees to give up what it would take to get him, and I don’t want him in a Red Sox uniform. Trade him to the Mets or just let him pick up 1/3 of Toronto’s wins all by himself next year.

[80] It’s really a shame if Anthopolous does care what the Jays fanbase thinks about the return they get for Doc. Shouldn’t he just be trying to get the best return possible as long as it is better than a late first round pick plus a sandwich pick?

Shouldn’t that be the only thing that plays a part in his decision-making process on whether or not to trade Doc?

Sure, if they trade him they lose money in ticket sales/concessions/merch, but they also save $15.75M. Does Halladay earn them that much in one year? Even if trading him for a package of non-marquee talent causes the fanbase to dwindle, if it helps them become semi-competitive again in the future wouldn’t that bring those fans back?

Oh great. Anthopolous will pull a Bill Smith and trade Halladay to the Mets for package that isn’t even as good as Melky and McAllister.

“Shouldn’t he just be trying to get the best return possible as long as it is better than a late first round pick plus a sandwich pick? “

Nothing we’d want the Yankees to give up is better than a year of Halladay and the picks.  Better to make a statement for future negotiations that take the Yankees dross.

If there is a deal out there that’s better than a year of Halladay and the picks, though, he should CERTAINLY take it - he’ll regain any lost face if the team starts to do the only thing that matters, which is WIN.

But I feel about this pretty much the way j does in [80].

This is a Season In Review thread, isn’t it ?

“And the Rays managed to contend for about half a season.”

I thought more advanced metrics than wins had them very good regardless this season.

Fangraphs said Kazmir wasn’t sure to be the 2007 Kazmir again or put up lots of innings, and wasn’t cheap.  Re catcher, they just got Shoppach for free from the Indians - and Fangraphs has him expected to put up 2 WAR at a depressed salary.  Bullpen - well, ok, the only constant is change.  They should be in a good position to fill holes as their farm system matures.  But maybe not.  Anyway, I’m happy to wait to see what the projection systems say.

Nothing we’d want the Yankees to give up is better than a year of Halladay and the picks.

I did forget to include the year of Halladay into the equation. However, if the argument can be made that a few extra WAR are worth more to a contending team because it might push them from missing the playoffs to making the playoffs, I think a case can be made that a few extra WAR are worth less to a team that will be nowhere near contention.

Fangraphs has Halladay’s best season at 8 WAR, and let’s even assume they replace him with some who is really awful at let’s say -2 WAR. In theory, Doc is potentially worth 10 wins to the Jays next season (in the best case scenario for them). They still won’t finish above 4th place. If Doc takes them from a 65 to a 75 win team, or from 70 to an 80 win team, it still does nothing for them in the long run. In fact, it could slightly hurt them. It would lower their draft position.

If the equation is the WAR one year of Doc + 2 draft picks compared to WAR from potential trade compensation, why would a non-contender want to burn through most of the value (in this case one year of Halladay) when it doesn’t really help them get to the playoffs? Why not get as much future potential WAR value as possible when the team might be closer to the playoffs?

I know the Jays aren’t looking at it that way, and probably have some faint hope that if EVERYTHING goes right maybe they can hang in the playoff picture, but realistic that is just slowing their rebuilding process. So, actually I hope they keep Doc as it does nothing for them in the long run except keep them from becoming an obstacle in the way of the Yankees making the playoffs, like Rays have become and the O’s seem like they might (just maybe) be headed on the right track to becoming.

The Jays don’t want to give up Halladay for nothing of easily-explained value, win 65 games, and lose 97% of their fans.

I think we don’t want them to be so bad that they never beat the third-place team in the league.

Oops, in the division.

[88] Wouldn’t winning bring those fans back? Wouldn’t trading Halladay potentially increase there chances to win in 2011, 2012, 2013, and so on? Won’t they become a 65 win team and lose 97% of their fans once they lose Halladay in FA after next season?

Just playing devil’s advocate since it’s fun to advocate tanking, but being a Yankees fan rarely presents that opportunity (the Milwaukee Bucks fan in me is too accustom to TANK-mode arguments).

The idea was that trading your best player for what looks like a handful of beans and then losing a ton of games is worse for ticket sales.  The Jays might see no path to the playoffs for a decade or more but still want to stay at or near 0.500.  They surely want to avoid a death spiral of alienated fans and a starved revenue stream.

Nothing we’d want the Yankees to give up is better than a year of Halladay and the picks.

A year of Halladay and the picks is worth both more and less than most people seem to think.

Example A—Josh Beckett is younger and also in the last year of his contract.  He will make several million dollars less than Hallady in 2010.  But Roy Halladay is easily worth a good deal more than Josh Beckett.

Example B—Jesus Montero for Roy Halladay straight up is an overpay.  Really.  Even if Montero can’t catch in the majors he will hit in the majors.  If he’s only a 2 WAR bat for six years at a total salary ~$10M, that’s more value than the Jays are ever likely to get out of two draft picks in the 16-45 range, and they don’t have to pay the signing bonuses.  Adding that value to the $16M they save easily outweighs the value of one year of Halladay’s performance and whatever marginal revenue he might generate.

Just scanning the game logs briefly does not give the impression that Halladay starts were a big attendance booster for Toronto.

“Example B—Jesus Montero for Roy Halladay straight up is an overpay. Really.”

Actually, I think most people here agree with that.  My sense of the consensus is that we don’t want Halladay if it means giving up Montero, Joba or Hughes.  We’ll take him if we can get him by giving up any 3-4 other prospects.

[93] Hard to tell what effect, if any he has.  For example, having Halladay may help increase season-ticket sales (sometimes partial plans).  Both b/c fans believe the team will be more competitive w/ Halladay, and b/c fans hope to see him pitch in some of the games.  Maybe it is 0 tickets, maybe it is 1000 tickets. 

Second, some people already buy season tickets just b/c they like having them, but don’t go to all the games.  Those tickets count in attendance (unless they changed the rules and now report actual attendance as opposed to tickets sold), even if the holder doesn’t show up.  The ticket-holder may be more likely to attend a game Halladay is pitching.  Obviously, the Jays will get more revenue (perhaps indirectly) if the seat is filled as opposed to just bought.

Chances are the direct impact Halladay has on revenue is small, indirect may be larger.  Either way, a winning team would help them the most, even if they aren’t making the playoffs just being in contention in September is likely enough.

[94] For me anyway a little more complex than that.  Montero/Hughes no.  Joba…I’m waffling on him, but if he’s included nothing else above a C- prospect (something like Jason Schmidt or similar value).  Next year I’m sure Halladay would be more valuable.  2011 (assuming they resign Halladay) I’m pretty confident, and Joba starts to cost more.  2012 they may be equal, but now Joba is costing even more, and he’s soon to be a FA (after 2013 I think) and may not stay anyway.  I think Hughes>Joba - or at least Hughes the starter > Joba the starter.  Joba the reliever may be > Hughes the reliever, if it comes to that.

Second, I’m not quite up for *any* combination of 3-4 other prospects.  E.g. Jackson+Romine+McCallister+Brackman is probably too much, even if you take away one of the pitchers.  Jackson+McCallister+Russo/Laird would be OK though.

[96] If I was forced to choose, I would trade “Jackson+Romine+McCallister+Brackman” before I would trade Joba, and that’s even though I have been hearing that Brackman has looked great in the instructional league.

[97] I dunno, that’s a lot to give up for one player.  I guess find another pitcher around Joba’s age who has put up similar value, and ask if you’d trade those 4 for him.  The first hard part of course is finding the similar player…the big thing is parting with that much of their highly-ranked talent for ONE player limits Cashman’s ability to make a trade down the road if he needs to acquire a player during the season.

Plus too if Pettitte is also back, you’re either moving Hughes or Joba into the pen anyway - probably Hughes since Joba pitched more last year - which isn’t the best utilization of them.  If you move say Joba to the pen to accomodate Halladay,  you’ve chosen to not trade a setup man for Halladay.  Of course, you could just not sign Pettitte in that case, but if you assume Pettitte has already signed would you just not bother with Halladay at all? 

Probably best to do that, and revisit for 2011.

Actually, I think most people here agree with that.

Yeah, I know; just preaching to the choir.

[98] I wouldn’t make either trade, but with Joba, it’s reasonable to think that he will either return to being a dominant starter if his velo returns, but even if it doesn’t, he still probably has the stuff to be a #2, or an upper echelon closer. The ultimate career path of the other four requires more projection.