Monday, November 16, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Derek Jeter
After finishing second in the AL MVP balloting in 2006, Derek Jeter proceeded to decline in 2007 and 2008, and thngs didn’t look great heading into 2009. Jeter shocked the world by rebounding to put up another MVP-caliber season at the advanced baseball of age of 35. Here’s a look at his projections entering 2009 compared to how he ended up doing.
| derek jeter | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 716 | 644 | 189 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 64 | 106 | .294 | .366 | .415 | 86 | .339 | .301 | .320 | .358 | .377 | 90.5% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 716 | 637 | 193 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 59 | 104 | .303 | .355 | .428 | 86 | .333 | .295 | .314 | .351 | .370 | 88.8% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 716 | 639 | 184 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 59 | 100 | .288 | .350 | .383 | 77 | .319 | .282 | .301 | .338 | .357 | 85.3% |
| 2009 tht projection | 716 | 647 | 193 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 58 | 102 | .298 | .365 | .400 | 84 | .335 | .297 | .316 | .354 | .373 | 89.4% |
| 2009 zips projection | 716 | 645 | 195 | 32 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 60 | 104 | .302 | .371 | .421 | 88 | .344 | .306 | .325 | .363 | .382 | 91.8% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 716 | 635 | 192 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 61 | 104 | .303 | .370 | .427 | 89 | .343 | .305 | .324 | .362 | .381 | 91.5% |
| 2009 average projection | 716 | 641 | 191 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 60 | 103 | .298 | .363 | .412 | 85 | .335 | .298 | .316 | .354 | .373 | 89.6% |
| 2009 actuals | 716 | 634 | 212 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 5 | 72 | 90 | .334 | .404 | .465 | 104 | .374 | .336 | .355 | .394 | .413 |
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
Fangraphs has pulled their 2009 Bill James projections so I've removed them from the list. If anyone really wants them back and can provide them for me I'll consider adding them back, although I generally think they're not very good.
So, looking at Jeter's 2009, the bulk of the difference in his performance came in two areas, more singles and more HRs. His actual IsoD (isolated discipline, calculated as OBP - AVG) was just a hair higher than his projected IsoD (.069 to .065). He hit 7 more HRs than projected. With 13 of his 18 HRs coming at home, it's pretty clear he took special advantage of DNYS. Still, even his road line of .337/.399/.437 would have been far better than any of his projections.
Jeter was also able to steal more bases than projected, effectively stealing 15 more than projected on average without getting caught a single time more.
Although none of the projections were close, ZiPS was the closest if you go by wOBA, with CAIRO second. PECOTA was far and away the worst.
Jeter even played solid defense in 2009, coming in around +2 using an average of standard zone rating and UZR.
It was a great season for a great player, and a big part of the reason the Yankees won #27 this year.
Comments
Clap-clap-clapclapclap.
Jeter is pretty awesome.
Amazing, he just blew away all of those predictions and played a damn good short. What an awesome Yankee.
Jeter’s 2009 was a whole lot of fun to watch. Since I’m in my age 33 season, I love to see him still getting it done at 35 (improving, even, defensively).
What could be cooler? Why, having an even better season at age 36, of course!
What kind of numbers will Jeter have to put up for SG to stop hating him?
After finishing second in the AL MVP balloting in 2006, Derek Jeter proceeded to decline in 2007 and 2008, and thngs didn’t look great heading into 2009.
OTOH, now that 2009 is in the books, it’s 2008 that looks like the outlier.
What kind of numbers will Jeter have to put up for SG to stop hating him?
A few more 2009s would go a long way towards that. Plus I’d like to see him incorporate some of Miguel Cairo’s intangibles.
OTOH, now that 2009 is in the books, it’s 2008 that looks like the outlier.
Yeah, this is another good example that trends in baseball are not particularly predictive.
2006: .399
2007: .369
2008: .343
Those are Jeter’s wOBAs from 2006-2008. Assuming a similar trend would have pegged his wOBA in 2009 at something like .329. A 3/2/1 weighted average would have put it at .361. He ended up at .374, which means both were off, but the weighted average would have been much closer.
[4] seventh down...
[4] seventh down…
I find 99 Ks borderline unacceptable.
Jeter got an offhand mention on Curb Your Enthusiasm a couple of weeks ago where LD is discussing Jeter with some friends and gets a phune call from someone who tells LD that Jeter is the most overrated player in the game. BTW last night’s Curb was one of the funniest ever.
[8] Well he’s only 24, right? So he’s guaranteed to improve.
That’s what we say about our switch-hitting CFers.
Gil McDougald looks like a pretty good player. He did something bad? His stats suggest that he should have a more vocal fans nostalgiaics.
Bill James was very high on Gil McDougald saying among other thigs there were 3 men who made Stengel a genius Yogi, Mickey and Gil McDougald. Also he was the only player who played 2nd, short and 3rd and was gold glove at all 3 positions.
“Gil McDougald looks like a pretty good player. He did something bad?”
Huh, I didn’t even recall the name. Crowded out by the bigger names I guess.
He did something bad?
Nah, he just didn’t have a long enough career.
[12] and [14], thanks. Cool, learning a bit about the non inner circle Yankees is interesting.
Jeter is going to be in the new Wahlberg/Ferrell comedy directed by Adam McKay for those who hadn’t heard. Serial.
And if you had been at Nathan’s the other day you mighta seen him, speaking strictly for me the movie’s a pass sight unseen despite the Captain’s presence.
Ferrell is pretty funny/talented. But yeah, I would never pay movie theater prices for any of his comedy flicks.
On one hand I love Jeter. On the other, Incredible Hulk sized hand, Mark Wahlberg is a douche.
[18] With second-run cinemas, netflix, redbox, public libraries, and not-so-legal internet streaming/downloading methods, there are ways to see any movie with it costing somewhere between free and $3 per person.
[19] I like Wahlberg in Boogie Nights (despite the giant fake Chien Ming), We Own the Night, and The Departed, but I do agree that he is Douchey McDoucherson.
On another athlete in entertainment related note, Joba was featured in an episode of Man vs Food. Basically, he cheered on the host who was attempting to eat 6 “suicide wings” in 6 minutes.
Some of us have suggested for years that Jeter should leadoff. Props to Girardi for making that decision. It worked out pretty well.
[21] I remember many conversations about “Jeter should lead-off and Damon should bat 2nd, it’s the best way to utilize them, but Girardi will NEVER do that.”
For all of his flaws, Girardi does think outside the box (or binder, if you will) more than most managers.
[12 - 14] According to Dynasty, McDougald was involved in an incident with Herb Score. Been a while since I read the book, but I think it was late 50’s, early in Score’s career. McDougald hit a LD up the middle that went right off of Score’s face. Broken orbital bone I think. IIRC, McDougald said afterwards he was never the same, had difficulty standing in the box and batting.
I’m sure the incident itself is true, whether or not that had anything to do with McDougald’s short career or a convenient way to explain his decline and being out of the majors, I do not know.
Perhaps a little wiki?
On May 7, 1957, McDougald, batting against Herb Score of the Cleveland Indians, hit a line drive that hit Score in the eye. It caused Score to miss the rest of the 1957 and much of the 1958 season, and Score was never again the outstanding pitcher he had been up to that event. McDougald reportedly vowed at the time of the incident to retire if Score was blinded.
Ironically, only two years before, McDougald was struck in the left ear during batting practice by a ball hit by teammate Bob Cerv. Though initially believed to be a concussion (he missed only a few games), McDougald soon lost the hearing in his left ear and later also in his right. He retired in 1960 at only age 32, though not directly because of his hearing loss (see Jim Reisler, “Sounds Great to Him”, Sports Illustrated, September 16, 1996).
...
In 1961 (McDougald) was selected by the Washington Senators in the expansion draft. Rather than play for that team, he retired.
Perhaps a little wiki?
I’m delegating…
Herb Score was on his way to becoming one of the great pitchers in the game and was never the same afterwards. Bill James says even though the Angles acquired the rights to McDougald and offered him more money then he had ever earned McDougald wanted nothing to do with an expansion team. James also says that if McDougald were healthy he might have hit 30+ HRs since Yankee Stadium was a notoriously hard place for righties to hit HRs
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