Linked this before, but: IPK on Pettitte.

[1] Lohud also says Joba likes Pettitte a lot, already pressuring him to come back.

Bring back Battle Cat! If only to annoy Bill Simmons and other Sox fans who are apparently quite annoyed with close-ups of Andy’s face.

I can see Pettitte going year to year for another two or three seasons.

I heard in another thread that Wakefield just re-upped for 5 dollars for the next two seasons with another 5 dollars in incentives, so that should be the starting point in negotiations with Battle Cat.

I can see Pettitte going year to year for another two or three seasons.

Yeah, I think Pettitte is fine going year to year, but will want to be paid close to market value.  With Houston seemingly not close to contention, the Yankees should not have much competition for him, so going year to year at whatever the going rate for a 2-3 WAR pitcher is seems about fair.

I heard in another thread that Wakefield just re-upped for 5 dollars for the next two seasons with another 5 dollars in incentives, so that should be the starting point in negotiations with Battle Cat

I’d throw in an extra buck for True Yankee-ness, and a quarter as a postseason bonus.

[5] - That’s actually $5 that Wakefield is paying to the RS, not a salary.  He just loves pitching.

SG - Any comment on the projections all predicting ERA > FIP by a significant amount and then the actuals being pretty close?  Better Yankee defense?  Random?

I’d throw in an extra buck for True Yankee-ness, and a quarter as a postseason bonus.

Is that a Derek Jeter commemorative dollar with a Mark Teixeira quarter?

Any comment on the projections all predicting ERA > FIP by a significant amount and then the actuals being pretty close?

Yeah.  Pettitte’s one of the pitchers who generally has a BABIP higher than league average.  League average is around .304, Pettitte’s average from 2006-2009 was .331.  Just eyeballing his career numbers, he’s got a career ERA of 3.91 and a career FIP of 3.74.

FIP regresses to .304, but no projection system should use just FIP to do its ERA projection.  I don’t think any of them do, although the weight can vary.  For CAIRO I use about 20% FIP.  That’s basically the main reason you’ll see a projected disparity between FIP and ERA in a projection.

It should work the other way too.  Someone like Mo who consistently has a BABIP lower than league average should not have his BABIP regressed all the way to league average like what FIP would do.  You regress him some, but not all the way.  In Mo’s case, he has a career ERA of 2.25 compared to a career FIP of 2.78.

I’ll ignore the temptation to get on my soapbox now about using solely FIP to determine pitcher value.

Is that a Derek Jeter commemorative dollar with a Mark Teixeira quarter?

Pretty sure that Teixeira quarter is a nickel after his postseason.  Maybe we can throw in four of those and then one each of the Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Sergio Mitre and Chien-Ming Wang pennies?

George King > Bob Nightengale?

The Yankees denied a published report they have let teams know right fielder Nick Swisher is available.

According to a Yankees official, switch-hitting Swisher, who played a big part in the Yankees winning the AL East but struggled in the postseason, isn’t being shopped by the World Series winners.

Swisher will be happy to hear that.  His teammates too, no doubt.

Battle Cat is supremely awesome. Particularly when he is not battling.

Pettitte was even better in the postseason, pitching 30.2 innings with an ERA of 3.52, and starting all three series clinching games for the Yankees.

I’m pretty thankful, like really really thankful, about all that. I don’t really think I could have taken the extra game in any of the series.

SG, was one of the question/request made in earlier thread about how many IP the different projections had for pitchers (or PAs)? Do they do that sort of stuff? Is projecting health part of the formulas?

Good article about MLB rules committee on Sports Pickle.

SG, was one of the question/request made in earlier thread about how many IP the different projections had for pitchers (or PAs)? Do they do that sort of stuff? Is projecting health part of the formulas?

Every projection system comes in the form of projected innings/PAs, but it’s generally not something that forecasters spend a lot of time on.  For CAIRO I just use a weighted average of prior playing time.  Marcel uses a formula that’s something like .5 times most recent year +.25 times prior two years or something.  Not sure what the other systems uses, but since playing times are an amalgam of MLB and minor league time that will add up to more playing time than is feasible in the majors it’s generally not something that we spend a lot of time on.

I think that’s going to change a little going forward as everyone tries to distance themselves from the pack, because we’re now seeing that there’s not a ton of difference in most projection systems.

But I’ll go ahead and add the actual projected playing times to the rest of the review pieces.  I’ll update this one for Pettitte too.

For most players, projecting PAs is the same as projecting injuries, which is kind of hard.

On a more important note, where did the phrase “hot stove” come from with regards to the trading season?

Check out this Cardinals fan savagely ripping on Keith Law today for voting Javy Vazquez over Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter (note that WAR and FIP both had Vazquez ahead of Wainwright and Carpenter, but VORP had him behind, with Law’s explanation being that VORP is not defense-adjusted and the Cardinals had a better defense than the Braves).

http://twitter.com/JKSTL21

It’s pretty funny how much of a jerk the guy is to Law when his main argument against Law is that he finds Law condescending.

But otherwise, some good stuff (in a watching a train wreck sort of way), including an argument that the Cardinals defense is not better than the Braves.

[8, 10] Am I the only one who actually ordered, paid for, and still has not received this item ? And it’s a half-dollar and a quarter, not a dollar.

[3] I think at home games next season, we dedicate the uber-tron to displaying a giant Andy face the entire game. No stats, no batter profiles, no nothin. Just Andy, peering over the glove, looming. I say we do this whether Pettitte signs or not, which would actually make it more creepy.

to change a little going forward as everyone tries to distance themselves

I imagine so, or it’s a differentiate or supplement to an area that, if it has been saberized, not much publicity given too.

Fox Sports via LoHud:

Yankees pitching plan is unclear — 2:14 p.m.

There are a number of ways for the World Series champion Yankees to address their starting pitching.

One would be to sign a free agent such as right-hander John Lackey or trade for an ace such as Blue Jays righty Roy Halladay.

Another would be to strengthen the bullpen, allowing right-handers Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain to return to the rotation.

The Yankees’ direction, at this early stage of the offseason, is not clear.

The team, according to one rival executive, plans to pursue free-agent relievers Rafael Soriano, a right-hander, and Mike Gonzalez, a lefty. The Yankees have liked both pitchers in the past.

However, another source with knowledge of the Yankees’ thinking says the team prefers to address any bullpen holes from within, using the same strategy that they employed successfully last season.

Yankees officials spent this week in organizational meeting.

[22] Or the Yankees are going to do something. We don’t really know what, but writing an article about them will drive up our traffic.

Up next, breaking news! Yankees make no moves as of yet, some sort of action looming in the future!

Hey guys,
Here’s Pettite’s contract:

1 year/$5.5M (2009)
(re-signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 1/26/09)

$4.5M in performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 150, 160, 170 IP; $0.75M each for 180, 190, 200, 210 IP

$2M in roster bonuses: $0.1M for 120 days on active 25-man roster; $0.2M for 130 days; $0.25M each for 140, 150 days; $0.4M each for 160, 170, 180 days

[23] I am a Yankee news junkie.

[20] There may not be a comparative basis.  It’s possible you’re the only person to order the item.  In any event, I wouldn’t worry.  The US Mint will get cracking on production after it finishes up with the Guam and American Samoa quarters; the National Park Service quarters; the four sides of Abe Lincoln pennies; the Jefferson nickels; and the commemorative presidential assassination dime series.  I, for one, can’t wait for my James Garfield bleeding head dime.

I could totally see them going after Gonzalez hard. The problem is that Gonzalez just hired Boras to be his agent. He’s pretty clearly going for that one big payday, and it’s doubtful that he’ll accept a set-up role.

But boy would he be good as the primary set-up man to Mo (I mean, duh, but still!).

Are Soriano or Gonzalez type A? Losing a draft pick to sign a set-up man isn’t ideal, especially with Robertson and Marte already on the team.

Not to mention the whole BP pitchers not named Mariano Rivera are generally a crapshoot and have performance levels that can fluctuate wildly from season to season, so spending big money on those guys isn’t the greatest idea.

where did the phrase “hot stove” come from with regards to the trading season?

Folks used to spend the winter sittin’ ‘round the ol’ pot-bellied stove in the back of the general store talkin’ ‘bout what trades their favorite team should make.

“I hear the A’s are losin’ money again and Connie Mack is shoppin’ Al Simmons.  Maybe we can get him to throw in that Foxx fellow and move him back to catcher.  The Dickey kid is alright, but he’s no Hall of Famer.  Chapman, Bengough and a couple of young pitchers ought to get it done.”

Are Soriano or Gonzalez type A?

Yes.

Folks used to spend the winter sittin’ ‘round the ol’ pot-bellied stove in the back of the general store talkin’ ‘bout what trades their favorite team should make.

What I see is Cashman flipping pancakes in a diner kitchen, talking on his cellphone.

And it’s a half-dollar and a quarter, not a dollar.

I guess that runaway inflation has started already.

I’ll ignore the temptation to get on my soapbox now about using solely FIP to determine pitcher value.

No one uses soley FIP - they use innings-pitched too!

Seriously, on the FanGraphs page explaining pitcher WAR they discuss some of the problems using FIP, and suggest in the future they may use something like tRA.  They (at the time) weren’t comfortable using tRA yet b/c they weren’t sure of it.  I don’t recall exactly but probably along the lines of it’s stability. 

I understand the argument against using FIP b/c it doesn’t account enough for what *actually* happened, but RA - obviously - has issues too.  I don’t understand tRA enough to know if it would be better - I should probably rectify that.

If anyone is interested, here is a scouting report on Aroldis Chapman.  The whole article is a good read, but I’m sure everyone wants the conclusion.

Chapman is going to be a risk for whatever team signs him. His upside is tremendous, but he’s raw in every sense of the word. Does he have the mental capacity to turn himself into a pitcher and not be just a thrower? Does a team’s development staff have a good track record in developing a talent like Chapman? Does Chapman have what it takes to put it all together and develop into a legitimate number one starter? We’ll eventually get our answers, but some team will have to shell out millions of dollars before getting them.

Best Case Outcome – No. 1 starter

More Likely Outcome – Power arm closer out of the bullpen

My take, if $$‘s don’t get crazy, Yankees should take a chance on him.  Seems like a guy if he were in the draft would be a top-15 pick.

[33] Which is why if it’s in the area of the Strasburg contract, the Yankees would be foolish not to sign him. If he is likely to at least be a useful BP pitcher, then you just end up with a slightly overpaid (in terms of open market value) reliever.

If it goes above the Contreras contract, that would be tough knowing you still have to develop this kid.

If it goes above the Contreras contract, that would be tough knowing you still have to develop this kid.

Yeah, 4/32 would be tough.  I’d actually be OK with something that was like 6/60, IF the last 3 years were option years and if all options were declined it would work out to something like 3/18.  That way it isn’t costing them much while he’s still in the minors, and if he doesn’t pan out the cost isn’t great.  If in 3 years he’s in the majors you essentially have a player for 3/45 who is either an overpaid closer, an appropriately paid #3, or an under-paid #1/#2.  If he develops quickly enough they’ll have a bargain for a year or two as well.

While not equating the two in terms of talent, I would prefer that the Yankees overpay in dollars for Chapman rather than overpay in players for Halladay.

Keith Law ranks Chapman 5th among free agents (Pettitte is 6th):

Chapman is the wild card of the free-agent market, as his track record is largely unknown, he’s barely thrown for clubs since defecting and he’s represented by agents who haven’t handled a free agent of this magnitude before. When Chapman is on, he’ll show No. 1 starter stuff, with a fastball in the mid-90s (and yes, as high as 101 mph) with good tail and a mid-80s slider that will show plus with legitimate tilt, although the latter pitch isn’t consistent. He does have a soft changeup but lacks feel for it and pushes it out of his hand rather than selling it with good arm speed. His command isn’t good, and he’s more thrower than pitcher, with a very loose arm that makes the velocity come out easily. Since defecting, he has worked on his body and scouts who’ve seen him recently say he’s stronger and in better overall shape. He might be a No. 1 starter; he might be an ace closer; he might be a mountain of frustration. Is that worth $60 million? Or the fourth- or fifth-biggest contract of the offseason? Not to me, but he’s worth some eight-figure amount because of the almost limitless upside.

Not to mention the whole BP pitchers not named Mariano Rivera are generally a crapshoot and have performance levels that can fluctuate wildly from season to season

The obvious solution is to legally change the names of all Yanks relievers to Mariano Rivera.