I like what Gardner showed this year.  Love having a real top-rate defensive CF.  I hope he gets a bigger share of the CF starts next year.

I see no need to upgrade CF, certainly not with a 37 year old Mike Cameron.

To me the offseason plan should be Holliday or stand pat.

Looks to me like the projections were ok, assuming we look at 0.310 as a statistical fluctuation up.

To me the offseason plan should be Holliday or stand pat.

Well, they’ve got to at least bring back Damon or Matsui if they don’t get Holliday, but I’m leaning this way as well.  And I still think they’d be better off waiting a year and going after TSCC in 2011 instead of Holliday in 2010.

Looks to me like the projections were ok, assuming we look at 0.310 as a statistical fluctuation up.

Yeah, I was actually surprised how close they were.  I thought they would have been further off, although on July 25 (the day he got hurt) when Gardner was hitting .275/.354/.400 they all looked much worse.

I’m not sure about the averaging of the std - some of that’s correlated statistical uncertainty which doesn’t average away, but some of it’s uncorrelated systematics which should.

[3] Yeah, I’m assuming Holliday and Damon or Matsui, probably Damon unless he asks for a long/big contract.

I don’t think there’s any guarantee Crawford reaches FA.  There have been rumors he’s already talking extension with TB.

If the Holliday price is reasonable, I’d make the move.  Wouldn’t go too much above 6/120 though.

I think Gardner would be a more effective hitter if he stops uppercutting the ball so much. A level swing may increase the chances that he will get on base.

As for Holliday, if the Yankees are truly concerned about reducing their payroll (if only to parry any attempt to increase the Yankee tax in the next CBA), I wonder if Swisher’s contract (10: $6.75M, 11: $9M, 12: $10.25M club option ($1M buyout)) is now tradable as a result of the productive season that he had. Moving him would at least partially offset a large financial commitment made to Holliday.

Fair point, planning any strategy around something that may or may not happen in two years is probably not the best way to go about stuff.  I remember reading a lot of strategies in the 2007 offseason about letting Mo, Po and A-Rod go and signing Peavy, Santana and such in 2009.  That would have been a freaking disaster.

I think Gardner would be a more effective hitter if he stops uppercutting the ball so much. A level swing may increase the chances that he will get on base.

Yeah, I’d think if Gardner can move his GB% from around 49% where he’s at now to something like Jeter’s 55% that should boost his average some.  Groundballs are hits about 28% of the time, fly balls about 21% of the time.

Gardner hit almost 15% infield fly balls this year, that’s unacceptably high since those are essentially automatic outs.

With TSBG and TSCC, you could play five infielders!

those are essentially automatic outs

Unless you hit them to Erick Aybar or Luis Castillo.

[7]  Why would you trade Swisher?  He’s a youngish, above average RF at a decent price.

I’d rather have Swisher than Holliday or Damon going forward, given the respective prices.

If they want to reduce payroll, they’ll go for only Holliday or Damon, and go cheap on the DH.

Moving him would at least partially offset a large financial commitment made to Holliday.

Quick guess, in 2010 at least about $30M is coming off the books (assuming they resign Pettitte for around $10M).  I’d have to look up how many players are getting raises, but maybe after raises there is $25M left.  So if they limit Holliday to 6/108, and only pay $12M in the first year, they could either save $13M or fill a need.  I think they’re committed to lowering payroll, but I don’t know how much or how fast.

Yeah, I’d think if Gardner can move his GB% from around 49% where he’s at now to something like Jeter’s 55% that should boost his average some.

Do we have splits before/after injury?  It seems to me that after injury the upper-cut was worse than before.  It’s easier to fix the problem (I think) if he’s typically swinging level but something changed that caused the upper-cut.

[11] Why would you trade Swisher?  He’s a youngish, above average RF at a decent price.

I would only trade Swisher for the reason I mentioned. That is, if the Yankees are concerned about a possible increase in the current MLB tax structure if their payroll remains at the current level, and they have an interest in Holliday.

I don’t think the Yankees will add any long-term contracts during this offseason, unless perhaps if they have to replace Pettitte.

I’m not sure about the averaging of the std - some of that’s correlated statistical uncertainty which doesn’t average away, but some of it’s uncorrelated systematics which should.

Yeah, this may not be ideal although I was hoping it’d generally be close enough. If anyone has any better suggestions I’d be open to listening.

Do we have splits before/after injury?

Through 7/25: 56 FB, 81 GB, 29 LD
Post 7/25: 11 FB, 19 GB, 8 LD

In terms of percentages:     
Through 7/25: 33.7% FB, 48.8% GB, 17.5%  LD
Post 7/25: 28.9% FB, 50.0% GB, 21.1% LD

Probably not enough sample size in that post 7/25 split to draw any meaningful distinctions from.

[12] So if they limit Holliday to 6/108, and only pay $12M in the first year, they could either save $13M or fill a need.  I think they’re committed to lowering payroll, but I don’t know how much or how fast.

Cot’s projects their 2011 payroll to be at $132,112,000, without factoring in a new contract for Jeter and perhaps even   Rivera, which could present at least a transitory obstacle (if payroll reduction is a legitimate goal) to pursuing (hypothetically) Mauer, Halladay, and/or Crawford.

Quick guess, in 2010 at least about $30M is coming off the books

$166M committed to 12 players, 2 of whom don’t figure to be on the opening day active roster:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

Even going as cheap as possible with the rest of the team would put them at $175-180M, which is ~$25M below this year.

[12] The pitfall with $30M (or whatever the exact figure is) coming off the books in 2010 (or whenever) is that it’s merely an opportunity to replace the talent cheaply, not a guarantee. We’re seeing that same issue with Damon and Matsui right now.

Stealing from Steve Goldman, the AL average for LF in 2009 was .270/.341/.440. Melky Cabrera put up .274/.336/.416. The counting numbers are obviously not there, but with the big defensive upswing and some growth of that SLG (he’ll be entering his age 25 season), is it completely out of the question to plan on Cabrera factoring into LF for 2009? That certainly would be the plan if Melky slugged .450 and hit 20-25 HR’s, but it’s never mentioned.

Maybe he needs another year… yes I would very scared to start Melky in LF in 2009. But with the chance at league average (or slightly better) offense and above average defense, I could get behind trying to make Melky work as a LF for 2010 and beyond. All these talks about 1 year deals are great, but the only mentionable position player prospects late 2010/2011 are Jackson and Montero.

That’s not really a projected payroll, Rich.  It’s $132M in salary and pro-rated bonuses committed to 8 guys.  So a 2011 payroll projection would have to be at least $132M + (17 x league minimum).

Payroll maintenance may be a more realistic goal than payroll reduction, but who the hell knows what the actual goal might be?

It seems reasonable that the goal has to be move to just under the luxury tax threshold. What doesn’t seem fair about that threshold, however, is that it would but the Yankees as spending ~40% of their annual revenue instead of 55%, which isn’t really fair to the fans. If we’re willing to put $375M into the team annually, and most teams are spending 50% of their revenue on player salaries, the luxury tax threshold should be in that ballpark. I think it’s $170M for 2010.

All these talks about 1 year deals are great, but the only mentionable position player prospects late 2010/2011 are Jackson and Montero.

Of course, going the shorter term route this off-season doesn’t mean that you have to have internal solutions lined up for 2011.  It could also mean that you aren’t overly impressed with the value available among current FAs who would require long-term commitments.

Yep, tax threshold is $170M in 2010 and $178M in 2011.

I’m torn on what I’d like the Yankees to do with their OF predicament.  The Joe Bloggs answer would be to sign Holliday and keep Damon while letting Matsui walk - or some derivation of that.

Frankly, I’d love it if Cashman pulled a rabbit out of his hat and made another Swisher-like trade for an OF.  Let Matsui walk, let someone else overpay for Holliday and offer Damon arbitration* and a one-year deal.  If Damon declines, keep the draft pick.

*Assuming the current reports are true and Boras wants a multi-year contract for Damon and Damon is not offering a hometown discount.

It’s early and could go different ways, but my ideal scenario would have Cashman getting an OF in a trade.

“Yeah, this may not be ideal although I was hoping it’d generally be close enough. If anyone has any better suggestions I’d be open to listening.”

Assuming everybody has something like sigma_i = sqrt(sigma_stat**2 + sigma_systematic_common**2 + sigma_syst_i**2), you know the stat. unc. contribution, you look at the models to determine what’s common (MLE formula[?], the statistics of the MLE sample, etc.) and what’s not, then it’s just putting the root n factors in the right place.  Of course figuring out the common part is a pain, but maybe someone has done it well enough already.

[20] I agree, but the list of 2011 free agents is even less inspiring, even if you include all outfielders. There’s Crawford, DeJesus has a $6M option at age 31, and whoever is hanging around after being on a 1 year deal in 2010. My point is simply that we’ll certainly be having this exact conversation again in 12 months if there isn’t some sort of longterm solution in LF, be it internal or external. Oh, and we’ll also potentially be looking at SS.

Hmm.. that raises some interesting questions then. Is Damon as on 1 year contract with a vesting 2nd year a stop gap for 2009 LF, a 2010 DH plan, and a prelude to Jeter moving to LF? </thinking out loud>

[22] I’d really love to see Cashman swoop in and deal for David DeJesus from Kansas City. He basically matched Damon in WAR, and he’s relatively cheap. KC has got a lot of holes to fill, and isn’t going to compete before DeJesus become a FA.

Jeter and Texiera win Gold Gloves.

Isn’t DeJesus already on the all-trade team?

Yeah, he’s right after Swisher.

Sorry.. Nick Johnson. Not Swisher.

As long as we don’t start talking about moving him to CF again.

Amen.

What do y’all think of Hunter’s gold glove? deserved?

[32] Based on UZR/150, it’s based on past reputation.

Jeter ... win Gold Gloves.

Hahahaha, not sure who the joke is on though.

In awesome name news, Billy Wagner’s agent is named Bean Stringfellow!

I wonder if Cairo and figgins know about these projection systems

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4642325

Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira both won AL Gold Glove awards.

P   Mark Buehrle, White Sox
C   Joe Mauer, Twins
1B   Mark Teixeira, Yankees
2B   Placido Polanco, Tigers
3B   Evan Longoria, Rays
SS   Derek Jeter, Yankees
OF   Torii Hunter, Angels
OF   Adam Jones, Orioles
OF   Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners

[34] Jeter had the 4th best UZR/150 in the AL, behind 3 guys that probably would never even get vote (Izturis, C., Kennedy and Andrus). I guess it’s funny because he won for being a name brand guy at SS, but it’s not as bad as when he was near the bottom consistently.

I would like to know how people decide which pitcher gets a gold glove vote, since a pitcher’s usual contribution to a play is getting out of the way.

I also deserve a gold glove!

Yeah, DeJesus is on the all-trade team.  And yeah, he’s in center, platooning with Andruw.

I’d like to see the all-traded-away team.

If you limit it to Cashman’s reign of terror…

1B Nick Johnson
2B Alfonso Soriano
SS ?
3B Mike Lowell
LF Juan Rivera
CF Kenny Lofton
RF Marcus Thames
DH Wily Mo Pena/Mike Lamb?

SP Javy Vasquez
SP Jose Contreras
...?

That’s the best I can come up with off the top of my head. That team could probably do some serious damage in the NL West.

[42] J- SS why its the great Nick Green!!!!!!!!
I know he wasn’t traded but he’s just so damn great.

Not a bad list, but I was thinking more of all the guys that we armchair GMs would have traded away to bring in the all-trade team.

Not a bad list, but I was thinking more of all the guys that we armchair GMs would have traded away to bring in the all-trade team.

IPK has to head that list, right?  Let’s trade Kennedy and _____ for Roy Halladay!

[42] Ted Lilly? Or did he leave as a FA?

[45] And Melky. Pretty Sure that Shelley was mentioned a bit. What about the ubiquitous Cano for Kemp trades ideas?

[43] I’ve got it… SS Christian Guzman.

[46] Yes, I think Lilly along with some other assorted garbage for Jeff Weaver. Three way deal with Oakland.

So that makes

P Vasquez
P Contreras
P Lilly
P Westbrook
P Eric Milton?

Lilz left in the clever Weaver move. Thurm the Katt raped a deer that day.
Did his time. So did we.

Yes, Milton and Guzman were both in the Knoblauch deal.  So you’ve got a starting rotation, now get to work on the bullpen.

Marte?
The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff?

Bullpen? Come on..

Damaso Marte
Randy Choate
Matt Smith
Tyler Clippard
Armando Benitez
Graeme Lloyd
and of course… Felix Heredia.

Pardon my French, but Farnsworth.

Did they trade him or just not resign him?

Traded for Ivan Rodriguez.

Is it fair to count guys that they traded away and then traded for?  Especially if they’re currently on the team?

[55] Traded for Ivan Rodriguez.

Ahhh how could I forget.

[56] Yeah there are a few of those. Robin Ventura almost made the team at 3B. David Justice was on there also.

Carlos Pena was the 3rd player in that Weaver deal.

I thought about including Pena, but he was just released from AAA in 06 or whenever it was.

Pretty sure RP Ramon Ramirez (career ERA+ of 138, 165 the last two years ) was traded away in the Chacon deal.

[61] You’re right.

I also didn’t include Gary Sheffield. Not sure if

.. he would even make the team.

[42] C Dioner Navarro (but the RJ trade was made by Randy Levine)

D’Angelo Jiminez would be a good utility infielder!

Remember when the debate was over who would be better, Jiminez or Soriano?

Davidoff:

—Alan Nero, the agent for the Yankees’ Chien-Ming Wang, stopped by; he works in Chicago. Nero said that Wang saw James Andrews on Monday, and that the right-hander intends to start throwing on Dec. 1 and could be ready for major-league action by April 15. That seems quite optimistic; in any case, the Yankees must decide by Dec. 12 whether to tender Wang a contract, and right now, you’d have to be on “No.”

For a TSBG thread this has turned out well. No Schnark.

[66] - “tender Wang”

[68] Nice.
I’m falling in love with leokitty.
So is T the K.

Russell Branyan is a FA, is seeking a two year deal, and seems like he would produce well at DH playing half his game in the disgraceful launching pad.

He also offers the option of playing 3B or 1B when ARod or Teix need to rest at DH, and has played LF in the past. He probably isn’t very good at LF, but falls under the “break glass in case of emergency” ability to play LF.

31 HR last season.

Extreme platoon splits means you can justify sitting him against tough LHP and using those games to rest Jeter or Posada at DH.

Cool, George Lopez / Wanda Sykes Shows time!!!!

[70] So, Branyan is a rich man’s Eric Hinske?  Without the good luck charm aspect of course?

I’d be very wary about Branyan. 

-He’s never had a full season like he had in 2009, although I guess you can say he never got the opportunity to do it full-time.

-Yeah, you can spot him at 1B/3B and the OF corners, but the only place you’re likely to get average defense out of him is at 1B, where the Yankees have Teixeira and Swisher as a backup already.

- He’s going to be 34, and with his old player skills I’m not sure he’s a good bet to age particularly well.

- He missed the last month of the season with a back injury.  That’s never a good thing for a guy whose primary skill is his bat, especially one who’ll be 34.

I’d rather take my chances with Hideki Matsui’s knees.

Gardner actually had a .345 OBP

Fangraohs agrees with [74], making the predictions a bit farther low.

Gardner actually had a .345 OBP

Yeah, I forgot to subtract his 6 sac bunts from his PAs when calculating his actual OBP.

Fangraohs agrees with [74], making the predictions a bit farther low.

In terms of OBP.  In terms of wOBA and that comparison there’s no difference.

“In terms of OBP.  In terms of wOBA and that comparison there’s no difference.”

Ah, thanks.

“TSBG looks like an asset in CF, maybe 2.5-3 WAR if he can do what he did in 2009 over 500 PAs”

This assumes no platoon advantage this year and no age-related improvement I take it, and includes an implicit AL East penalty - you have him as having a good chance of being a league average hitter (2 WAR) plus 1-1.5 WAR fielding/running, putting his achievable ceiling at 3.5 WAR.  Cameron has been a 2-4 (more the latter than the former) WAR player in the NL West and Central - say he’s worth 3.5 WAR as a 37-y-o for the Yankees and costs $8 for one year: is that worth the 0.5-1 win upgrade (probably at lower risk, though of course it’s free to DFA a SBVOE Gardner in May)?  If it’s really 1-1.5, then I guess so, depending on what else one can do with the $8.

Of course I guess I should see what you project for Melky and say mid-season AJax.

And I see that Fangraphs has Gardner at 2.1 WAR in 2009.

Yeah, I’m not sure Cameron is an upgrade on Melky Gardnera, but I haven’t run 2010 CAIRO yet to confirm that.  My head says it’s not more than a 0.5 win gap most likely, with Cameron also a very high candidate to fall off a cliff.

Regarding Gardner and his 2.1 WAR in 2009 in 284 PAs, that probably works out to what, 4.5 WAR in a full season?  The only concern I have with that is pro-rating him out to a full season probably necessitates more playing time against lefties, which should mean a slightly worse overall performance.  That’s why I said 2.5-3.0 WAR over 500 PAs, assuming he needs to be platooned.  Maybe I’m wrong in that assessment.

If we project Gardner around +15 defensively, and + 10 baserunning, then he only has to be about 20 runs above replacement offensively (basically average) to be 4.5 WAR.  He’s still got a couple of years of development in him, so that doesn’t seem unreasonable. 

One caveat though, speed and defense peak much younger than offense, so it’s possible that his non-offensive value will decline some as his offense improves.

I will have to see Gardner put up a 4.5 WAR to believe it.  Probably over several seasons, given that the number would have to depend on non-hitting (aka less well-measured) stats.  Of course I’m all for trying the experiment.