So if the Yankees drop this one do Teix get the A-Rod treatment?

Utley is phenomenal.  Maybe, like Samsom, he’d lose his power if somebody shaved his head.  Kate Hudson stealth mission?

The only plus I have for Robbie is that I saw him hit three balls well last night.  Only one dropped in.  If he keeps squaring the ball up like that, he could have a big game.

Tex, on the other hand, isn’t even making solid contact.  Yikes.

Arg.  Samson, rather.

So, out of 15 homers this series, the split is 10 for them and 5 for us. That means we play the game the right way, no ? I say the following signs favor us over Philly:

1) Their fancy stadium is a bandbox.
2) Their ace is a former Cy Young winner from Cleveland.
3) They score all their runs on homers.
4) Their left fielder is a recycle everyone thought was washed up.
5) Their fans overreact to every win or loss.

The delta from Utley to Cano in 5 games is already pretty much a full win.
That’s pretty much insane.

I would no longer give Utley a pitch with which he can make solid contact.

Wow. If this is it for Matsui, a pretty great way to go out.

Cano and Melky out getting wasted every night?

Anyone else keep getting these page load frequency errors?

Anyone else keep getting these page load frequency errors?

I did last night.

I got them last night as well.

How did I ever survive off-days in the past? This is awful.

Anyone else keep getting these page load frequency errors?

I mentioned this in the chatter thread.  To prevent the 500 server errors I had to set up the site to limit people refreshing constantly.  If you refreshed 5 times in 60 seconds, you’d get locked out for 60 seconds. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable limit.

I remember when I used to think that Utley and Cano were similar players.

Teixeira is a mess, I was so hoping for a breaktrhough moment from him last night, that strikeout was awful.

Johnny Damon is unbelievable. I’ve underappreciated him all these years.

I felt sorry for AJ last night. If Game 2 was the most fun he’s ever had on a baseball field, I can’t imagine how bad last night must have sucked for him.

I have something of a man crush on David Robertson and I’m not afraid to admit it. He seems to have the makeup and confidence that Joba and Phil can’t seem to harness.

It’ll be sweeter winning it in the Bronx.

If we can score 5 runs off Cliff Lee, I feel pretty good about our chances against any of the starters the Phils have to throw at us.

Yeah, behind Alex, Damon is the guy I want batting with the game on the line.

David Robertson is the closer of the future. He’s become a man this postseason.

David Robertson is the closer of the future. He’s become a man this postseason.

I’ve always had an irrational(?) appreciation for his pitching motion.  Nice to see him putting it together.

Tex has 7 strikeouts in 19 AB. Yuck.

Burnett is holding back tears here:

http://web.yesnetwork.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=7116857

Though I guess Alex is 7 in 18.

Well, it appears the whole nation should be rooting for the Yankees.

It is good for the business side of things, after all.

Alex has had high leverage hits, or meaningful hits or whatever. Also, Alex is arguably the reason they are in the W.S. Teix hasn’t done much in the entire post season.

Girardi can’t really hold back from using Robertson in game 6 if needed, can he? I mean, shouldn’t it be Robertson, Marte, and Mo at this point? Hope and pray Andy can give you 5.1-6 with some lead, then Robertson/Marte and Mo for 2? Honestly, if anyone but those three touch the mound and Andy has given you 5 (and its not the victory pile of course), then…then…well, I just don’t know.

and anyone who throws utley a pitch that isn’t aimed at his plastic hair needs to be DFA.

[19] Walk off HR, no?

@22, that’s why I said “much.” And I have a hard time getting down on him, i really find him extremely likable, and he was a big part of the 103 wins that got the Yanks to the playoffs in the first place. But I fail to understand why if A-Rod sucks all postseason there are front page articles about how “an unnamed scout used a less than flattering word to describe Rodriguez, we won’t print it here but it rhymes with ‘loft.’ A yuk yuk yuk.” meanwhile Teix spits the bit and it’s ho hum.

But I fail to understand why

Really? ARod is the cover story whenever possible. There’s not really much to understand. They are trying to sell papers.

FWIW, Teixeira routinely makes 2-3 strong defensive plays at 1B. At least that’s what my eyes tell me.

Yeah.  Teixeira saved an XBH last night in the first inning (hard to imagine, I know). 

Still, it’s tough to watch him struggle so much with the offspeed stuff so far.

[23] Because the Yankees are one win away from a ring despite Teixeira’s struggles, while they made early exits from the postseason year after year when A-Rod struggled.  I’m pretty sure we’ll read a lot about Teixeira’s failures in these playoffs when all is said and done.  Hopefully, it will be in the context of how his teammates made his poor performance moot, or how he didn’t much, but he sure did have one huge game in the end.

If you refreshed 5 times in 60 seconds, you’d get locked out for 60 seconds. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable limit.

I don’t think that’s unreasonable, either, but I just got one when I tried to load a different thread after not having refreshed for a couple of minutes.

[27] Yeah, I get the same thing to. I also got it when I first came to the page in the morning.

I don’t think that’s unreasonable, either, but I just got one when I tried to load a different thread after not having refreshed for a couple of minutes.

Yeah.  That’s what happened to me last night.  I hadn’t read anything in a few hours and I loaded the man page but when I clicked on the comments section of the newest article I got the message.  2 clicks total.

Jeter has a hit in every WS game, but isn’t lately crushing drives around.  He goes through times when he slumps a bit but still manages to find holes from time to time. Cano on the other hand really gets out of control when going poorly. Seems to slash at anything at times.  Tex has made some fantastic plays at first and that has been an extremely important contribution.  Its just frustrating the way he has struggled particularly as a lefty which is his best side. Philly fans have to be equally frusterated with Howard. Both teams may not have been in the postseason without the slumping guys so we have to remember who got us here.  There’s still time for redemption, lets just hope it is our guys who rise to the occasion.  Pitching of course is the key first and foremost.

Isn’t the whole thing of calling out a player for having a bad postseason getting a bit tiresome?  We saw with Alex that it’s possible for a great player to have even multiple bad postseason series, only to bounce back in a big way.  Now we’re going to go through the same ritual with Teixeira (who I think has been mostly unlucky, but whatever).  Count me out.

Yeah.  That’s what happened to me last night.  I hadn’t read anything in a few hours and I loaded the man page but when I clicked on the comments section of the newest article I got the message.  2 clicks total.

I suspect all the comments/refresh just shorted the system. It’s especially exasperated when a big comment binge inducing play happens right when a new page is called for, doubles the use rate.

[31] I don’t remember Teixeira having a lot of “loud outs” (I hate Joe Buck) that suggest bad luck. He seems to be swinging at balls in the dirt and popping up to the edge of the outfield grass. Although I wouldn’t be shocked if I’m selectively remembering his worst at bats.

There is a line between saying, “This guy has sucked for three weeks and is capable of doing better” and saying, “This guy can’t handle it/Choke artist/Small on the biggest stage/Mr. May/Whatever.” Teixeira is a great player having an awfully inopportune slump. I think that’s fair to say. I don’t think it portends bad things about his character or clutchosity, and if (when!) he plays in the postseason again I won’t consider this performance predictive.

It’s really impressive that Cano has managed to be worse offensively than a guy who has struck out 12 times in 5 games.

It’s so impressive I have decided to not even be mad about it.

Now we’re going to go through the same ritual with Teixeira (who I think has been mostly unlucky, but whatever).  Count me out.

Teix is unclutch. He needs a new approach and a self portrait as a centaur.

and a self portrait as a centaur.

Already done.
Maybe as a sphinx?

Fire Girardi.

Or, thank the Yankees for saving baseball by not ending the series in 5 games?

If you refreshed 5 times in 60 seconds, you’d get locked out for 60 seconds. I don’t think that’s an unreasonable limit.

Similar to j, I came in this morning, read a post, clicked a link (w/o refreshing), and got the error.  That was maybe 7AM.  Haven’t gotten it since then.  Probably the blog itself getting in on the complaint thread the only way it knows how.

Honestly, if anyone but those three touch the mound and Andy has given you 5 (and its not the victory pile of course), then…then…well, I just don’t know.

Well, you’re also assuming everyone has been *successful* to that point.  And that the game is very close.  Depending on score/success of pitchers, I wouldn’t be opposed to Joba between Marte and Mo.  For example, Yankees are down a run going into the top of the 8th, I’d have no problem starting w/ Joba against the bottom of their lineup.  I don’t think you want to use Mo for two innings in a game you are already down, b/c you almost certainly can NOT

...use him for two the next day.  (lousy fat-fingers)

I don’t know why nobody thought of this but in retrospect starting AJ would leave us with Petitte/CC both on short rest if he lost and starting Gaudin was out of the question but Aceves for 3, Hughes and Robertson for 2, Joba and Marte when/if needed was our best option.  Girardi thought of it but only after AJ was again proved Serling’s adage “you just can’t predict AJ.”

Thank goodness for Marte, imagine if Girardi had to rely on Coke Zero to get lefties out this series.  Phil should be the designated hurler in ESPN’s home run derby next summer.

Teix could go the route of a merman self portrat.

[39] Well, yes, of course. I meant my sentence before to carry over, so that that sentence assumes the lead. Not that *I* assume the lead, but that if the Yanks do have the lead and Andy can give you 5+, it should be Robertson, Marte , Mo.

If they are losing or tied, clearly the best response is to bring in Coke, since that’s what Girardi seems to want to do judging by these last two games.

I just don’t really see what else Robertson has to do this post season to leapfrog Joba and Hughes, neither of whom inspire any confidence at this point.

“I don’t know why nobody thought of this”

We discussed variations of this here.

[33 “Teixeira is a great player having an awfully inopportune slump. I think that’s fair to say. I don’t think it portends bad things about his character or clutchosity, and if (when!) he plays in the postseason again I won’t consider this performance predictive. “

But if it doesn’t tell us anything about his makeup or predict future postseason performance, what’s the point of even focusing on it?  Obviously, it’s a FACT that Teixeira has gotten some pretty disappointing results with the bat; the numbers speak for themselves.  But why does it matter that Teixeira and Cano, e.g., happen to be sucking at the plate right now instead of say Matsui and Jeter?  This is a team sport, and the NYY right now are 10-4 in the postseason.  Overall, they’re doing great.  Some individual players are doing better than others, but that’s to be expected.

How about Teix the Carpathian?

44-guess I missed it, I know it didn’t occur to me until the 3rd inning last night.  Remember Girardi starting Stanton in a regular season game?  It just seems to me, AFTER THE FACT, that Aceves, Robertson, Hughes>> Gaudin and then if we lose we get Burnett at home and not on short rest.  Now everyone is worried about what we’ll get from Petitte tomorrow.

[45] That’s exactly the point of having a balanced line up. You don’t live and die by one player. But people will always find someone to bitch about.

Tex is just having a bad post season but he’s a great player.  On the other hand I’m not sure Cano will ever come up big for us when we need him most.

[49] Tex is just having a bad post season offensively

He has been stellar with the glove.

Hackinson is still young.  I continue to hope for some maturation that will alter his approach in certain spots.

Two things:

Tex, take the low pitches, because they aren’t strikes.
Pitchers, nothing inside to Utley for chrissakes.

Hackinson is now 27. We’re almost to the point where we can no longer call him young.

On the other hand I’m not sure Cano will ever come up big for us when we need him most.

So those walkoff hits this season were a fluke?  Cano’s a streaky hitter.  Most are I think but he’s probably at the extreme.  He picked* a poor time to have a bad streak, but he could start a good one tomorrow.  Of course, if he gets 3 or 4 hits tomorrow they’ll probably win, and he’ll be labelled with, “just one good game”.

*Obviously, he didn’t really “pick” now.

[49] That’s a pretty broad prediction. Can you look at my stock portfolio and my fantasy baseball picks for next year?

Off days suck.

Seems to me the problem with Cano is that he has changed his approach.  Taking the first pitch almost every time, and lots of times it’s looked like the best pitch to hit in the whole AB.

Aceves, Robertson, Hughes>> Gaudin and then if we lose we get Burnett at home and not on short rest.  Now everyone is worried about what we’ll get from Petitte tomorrow.

Of course, if they’d done it my way (which was a little different—eg—Marte, Gaudin, Aceves, Robertson, Chamberlain, etc) and lost anyway, everyone would be worried about what we’d get from Burnett tomorrow.  His propensity for completely losing the ability to command his pitches and throw an absolute stinker is not really subject to home/road and or rest splits.

  His propensity for completely losing the ability to command his pitches and throw an absolute stinker is not really subject to home/road and or rest splits.

that was a good point in arguing with friends who thought that AJ on full rest would be much better, guaranteed.  Watching him all year, the same friends gave him the nickname “5 Run” Burnett, because he was just so hit or miss.

Mike Schmidt hit .050/.050/.050 in the 1983 WS.  1 for 20 with no walks and six strikeouts.  Eddie Murray was very nearly as bad (2 singles, a walk and 4 Ks in 17 PA) until game 5, when he went 3 for 4 with two homers.  I don’t remember who the announcers were for the series, but I do remember one of them commenting that if the series had lasted a couple more games, Schmidt would have busted out too.  You’d never hear that kind of talk from the MSM these days.

The world is getting stupider and stupider.

[59] Celebrating peoples failures is more fun that celebrating peoples successes. I guess we live in a narcissistic world, where finding out that someone failed makes people feel better.

Continuing [60].. ever notice how, when Rivera comes into the game or when the Yanekes are trailing, or any other random situation, Fox goes with the “Rivera hasn’t blown a WS save since ______” (trying to jinxing him) or “The Yankees have never come back from a deficit of 6 or more in a World Series game.” I’m not sure what the reasoning behind this kind of research is, but it’s got to be purposeful.

54: Cano seriously underperformed with RISP the whole year and most of his career and now has been bad in the post season.  Is it possible to deny that?  Does that mean he’s never gotten a big hit?  Of course not.  Check his splits.

His propensity for completely losing the ability to command his pitches and throw an absolute stinker is not really subject to home/road and or rest splits.

Exactly.  He didn’t pitch on short rest all season before last night but it didn’t stop him from throwing up so “automatic loss” type games throughout the season.

Yeah, anyone who really thinks that Burnett would somehow magically be immune from his evil twin taking the mound because of extra rest and playing at home clearly hasn’t really paid attention to Burnett this year, or his career really.

I feel far more confident relying on getting 4 good-decent innings from Andy tomorrow than I ever would the same from AJ, no matter the rest or location. Doesn’t mean Andy will do any better, but AJ is one of the more infuriatingly inconsistent players I’ve ever seen. He’s really too good to be that bad that often.

Ok, regarding the exceeding the frequency thing, I think it’s possibly counting multiple elements on one page as multiple refreshes, so I upped the limit to 10.  Let me know if you are still getting the message despite not refreshing more than 10 times in a minute.

Re: Cano, his youth, his approach, etc:

I hope.  I wish.  I do not predict.

Mike Schmidt hit .050/.050/.050 in the 1983 WS.

Good Example MC.  I specifically remember that post season. Normally I don’t pay much attention when Yanks aren’t in it, but Mike Schmidt had a deplorable ALCS.  I remember though what really struck me was the grace he exhibited going back to the dugout so many times.  I don’t recall him ranting at the umps or anyone, simply putting his helmet back on the rack.  Of course he did finally get in the groove during the WS.

Just for the sake of discussion. If you knew prior to the World Series you could get one dominant winning performance from AJ out of two, would you have taken it?  I would have and that keeps me from being too hard on him after last night. What we need at a minimum is at least one more decent start from CC or Andy and some offensive urgency as was demonstrated in the last part of the two previous contests.

The thing that keeps bothering me is that while I’m watching Burnett go from giving up 3 runs to 5, and Coke giving up HR after HR, I’m saying to myself, “watch them lose this game by 2 or 3 runs.”

So common sense keeps telling me that Joe is playing a bit coy with Andy’s status.  They really need him for 15 outs and even if he was “gassed” after Game 3, he’ll have several months to recover.  If there was any thought that he wouldn’t be able to make this start, I have to believe that Gaudin or Aceves would have started yesterday’s game.

OTOH, given the bizarre way in which Manuel has managed his rotation, I am not over the fear that Joe has just made a strategic error.

[62] “Cano seriously underperformed with RISP the whole year and most of his career and now has been bad in the post season.  Is it possible to deny that?”

Of course he “underperformed” with RISP; nobody denies that.  The question is whether this is bad luck or something else, and if it’s “something else,” i.e., some flaw in his technique or approach, then what is it, specifically? 

The same thing goes for players who get into slumps, especially during the postseason.  Figuring out that a particular player isn’t getting hits or knocking in runs is the easy part.  The hard part is coming up with some kind of useful observation about what the player is doing or failing to do that could actually aid in their getting better results.  It’s not as if Robbie and Tex wouldn’t love to be driving in more runs. 

To say that you doubt Robbie will ever deliver big hits when we need them implies either (a) he lacks some specific component of batting skill that permits players to get meaningful hits in big games, and furthermore is incapable of ever acquiring that skill; or (b) certain players are inherently “unlucky” and can be expected to remain so throughout their careers.  Hopefully, you don’t believe “b”.  But if “a” is the answer, what is the specific skill he is lacking, and why is it something he can never acquire?

Tomorrow do we get Pedro killer Hairston?

[71]”(a) he lacks some specific component of batting skill that permits players to get meaningful hits in big games”

He lacks strikezone judgement.

I would think that particular trait makes you very vulnerable to better pitchers, in tense situations, where they are always going to try to make a “perfect pitch”.  i.e., no one is giving you a first pitch FB down the middle to get ahead in the count.

First name that came to mind was Alfonso Soriano (remembering some grizzly postseason of feeble hacks at sliders in the dirt).  His postseason line:
176 PA 213/263/299 562 OPS.

Totally unscientific, but I would guess “hacktastic” players perform poorly in postseason play.

Cano 09 bases empty 361 PA OPS 1.017 RISP 198 PA .574 2 outs RISP .577 PA

Career bases empty 892 RISP 689 2 outs RISP 680

Its hard for me to believe that this discrepancy is due to luck.  Some people can channel adrenaline positively and some people get tight.

I remain optimistic.

“To say that you doubt Robbie will ever deliver big hits when we need them”

It seems to me that it is totally reasonable to believe that there are likely times when players underperform in certain venues due to nerves, stagefright, etc., but its foolhardy to assume that it can’t change with additional experience and opportunity.  I remember wondering if A-rod would ever deliver on the big stage and after several tries he’s done a fine job on the whole this October.  There are a bunch of others to point to as well. Hopefully, Arod and Cano will be able to add to a strong finishing touch.

[70] Not sure if this has been brought up, but Pettitte’s “gassed” comment seems to have been taken well out of context.  He was specifically talking about his legs being tired out from running the bases and having to cover first.  Here’s the quote:  “I was gassed running around the bases,” Pettitte said. “Then the next inning I had to cover first, and that gassed my legs even more. It was a rough night for me.”

People seem to be alluding to this quote as evidence that Andy no longer has the physical stamina to get through a normal 6-7 inning start.  Andy may be on the decline in a general way, but I don’t think he’s literally down to his last couple of innings of pitches.  If he is, he’s being incredibly good natured about it.

I don’t think it is nerves or some character flaw with Cano.  He just doesn’t judge what is and is not a strike very well.

In a situation where a pitcher is really “bearing down”, i.e. trying extra hard to throw a perfect pitch, or even a pitch that’s 6 in outside the zone (given it is Cano up) he’s going to have trouble.

Pettitte, to me, shows absolutely no signs of being done.  37 is not old for a lefty starter.  He’s just entering the “crafty lefty” stage of his career.

His last 3 years with the Yankees he’s thrown 610 IP with a FIP under 4.00.  His K-rate this year was above his career average.  That’s not a guy who is “done”.

If he wants to put on a HoF drive, Pettitte can probably pitch 5 more years and get to 275 wins.  If he’s willing to work cheap (relatively) on one year deals he can be the Yankees permanent 4th starter.

[77] Not only that, but Pettitte also attributed the way he felt to the extended rain delay. He was ready to go and then had to put it on hold for, what, like 90 minutes?

On a completely differnt not we’d have to import Skip Caray to find a worse team to do the post game analysis then Lorenz and Flaherty.  Even Kay is much better then Lorenz and why is Cone so underused.

[73] and [76] I agree it’s possible a player can underperform with RISP or in the postseason for an identifiable reason (nerves, altering their approach, etc.)  I just don’t see how someone can declare that the problem (if there is one and it’s not just bad luck or an ill-timed slump) is permanent.  Again, we went through this with Alex.  People were utterly convinced he absolutely could not be the October player we are now witnessing.  Whether or not there was something concretely wrong with him during previous playoffs or not, it clearly wasn’t a permanent condition.

I think the Cano vs Soriano comparison is a bad one in general.  They both don’t walk a lot but Cano almost never strikes out whereas Soriano has one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball.  I forget whether this was Miller/Morgan on the radio or Buck/McCarver, but they mentioned at one point that during the regular season, Cano put like 572 balls out of 600-something in play.

I’m more optimistic about Cano because it looks like he’s had some hard hit balls and could be the victim of BABIP variance.  Teixera I’m less optimistic about, but he’s been able to get on base to not completely be an offensive void, and his 1B defense has been amazing.

[78] “In a situation where a pitcher is really “bearing down”, i.e. trying extra hard to throw a perfect pitch, or even a pitch that’s 6 in outside the zone (given it is Cano up) he’s going to have trouble.”

I guess what I find hard to swallow with this hypothesis is that it implies that pitchers are relatively indifferent about pitch location in non-stressful situations.  Seems to me pitchers are always trying to locate their pitches somewhere, whether it’s nibbling around the edges, safely outside the zone, or possibly right down the middle in cases where they’re pretty sure the batter will be taking the pitch.  Your theory seems to be that in an RISP situation, a batter will see a lot more “nibbling” around the edges, and this would penalize a “hacker” like Cano more so than a discriminating hitter like, I dunno, Bobby Abreu.  On the other hand, wouldn’t a hacker like Cano tend to benefit from seeing more pitches closer to the strike zone, since he presumably has a weakness for pitches that are well outside the zone?

If Billy Beane were our GM would he consider Cano overvalued and try to move him for fair market value before he declines?

[84] “On the other hand, wouldn’t a hacker like Cano tend to benefit from seeing more pitches closer to the strike zone, since he presumably has a weakness for pitches that are well outside the zone? “

Not if the pitcher knows he is a hacker.

“I guess what I find hard to swallow with this hypothesis is that it implies that pitchers are relatively indifferent about pitch location in non-stressful situations.”

I think pitchers are in general somewhat concerned with efficiency; if they go 3:2 on every batter, they won’t last long.  So, the tendancy to nibble is moderated.

I guess what I find hard to swallow with this hypothesis is that it implies that pitchers are relatively indifferent about pitch location in non-stressful situations.

Oh, I believe they often are less tuned in. It explains why non hitters like Al Weis homers in the 69 World Series, Phil Linz goes deep on Bob Gibson ‘64, the Dents and Doyles hit great in 78 and obviously you could point to many more in recent times. Yes I’m old, but the point remains.  There’s no question in my mind that pitchers take some breathers-or try to, that’s why sometimes the bottom of the lineup starts rallies.

Or sometimes random things happen-Bobby Richardson 1960.

Cano’s hacktastic ways definitely help out pitchers.  It is Soriano-like, except he doesn’t K much, but rather hits lazy flies and little grounders to 2nd.

I happen to believe he can improve that part of his game (and/or also get a little luckier).  He’s a very good hitter, if not a particularly smart one, IMO.  He still has time to refine his approach before he gets old and his phyiscal skills slip.  Might he never adjust?  Sure, it’s possible.

[86] Huh?  If the pitcher knows Cano is a hacker, Cano doesn’t benefit from seeing more pitches close to the strikezone as opposed to well outside the strikezone?  That makes no sense.

“I think pitchers are in general somewhat concerned with efficiency; if they go 3:2 on every batter, they won’t last long.  So, the tendancy to nibble is moderated.”

Let’s say a pitcher in a routine, non-stressful situation is comfortable throwing pitches that are clearly within the strikezone, in part out of concern for “efficiency.”  Since Cano rarely strikes out, he presumably hits well against that kind of pitcher because he is putting relatively hittable pitches in play.  Now a stressful situation arises, and the pitcher accordingly starts to avoid the heart of the plate.  Robbie is penalized, because his poor striekzone judgment causes him to offer at pitches that are only marginally hittable.  It all makes sense as far this goes, but it leaves open an imporant question:  Why would a pitcher, if he knows Cano is a hacker who will swing at anything, be throwing him a lot of strikes to begin with?  IOW, why would the pitcher wait until there are RISP to stop offering Cano pitches he can hit?

Maybe this is just beyond my ability to understand, but it seems to me that any general flaw in Robbie’s hitting skillset—e.g., an overall lack of “strikezone judgment” - is going to present problems for him regardless of whether there are RISP or not, or regardless of whether the calendar says it’s October or not (or November, whatever).

90 so then either Cano’s problems are a major statistical anomaly or they’re mental

[87]  I understand pitchers often don’t bear down as much when facing weak hitters.  I don’t get how this applies to Cano in particular.  First, he’s not a weak hitter by any means.  Second, while a pitcher might be expected to bear down more against Cano with RISP or in playoff game just because of the importance of the situation, this would be true of all batters and not just Cano.  It doesn’t explain why Cano, in particular, would have such dramatic splits in these situations.

[89] “Cano’s hacktastic ways definitely help out pitchers.”  That’s seems reasonable, but why would the effect be greater with RISP or in playoff games?

“His propensity for completely losing the ability to command his pitches and throw an absolute stinker is not really subject to home/road and or rest splits.”

We don’t know about the latter, at least the short-rest direction.

Pettitte, to me, shows absolutely no signs of being done.  37 is not old for a lefty starter.  He’s just entering the “crafty lefty” stage of his career.

yeah I agree.  good to great pitchers usually retire when they want to or because of injuries (back injuries are popular, and arm, of course), not ineffectiveness. and it’s always good to be a lefty.

If Billy Beane were our GM would he consider Cano overvalued and try to move him for fair market value before he declines?

Cano is one of the top 5 offensive second basemen in the league and is at least average offensively based on defensive metrics.  He’s also signed to a contract with reasonable options until he’s 31.

SG—with all the discussion about “hacktastic players” and their postseason performance, would it be possible to get concrete data on that?  As much as like anecdotal speculation about whether “pitchers try hard with RISP” it’s probably pretty easy to settle this debate.

If Billy Beane was the Yankees GM they wouldnt be in the WS since his teams are incapable of winning in the postseason.

/Joe Morgan’d

[67] I think you’re confusing 1980 and 1983.  Schmidt was a monster in the NLCS in ‘83 and then managed just the lone single in the five game loss to Baltimore.  He was WS MVP in ‘80.

[93] Yeah, but the short rest direction is always going to remain a ludicrously small sample.  We do know that he’s fully capable of total loss of command when on either regular or extra rest, so it seems safe to assume that it’s also a possibility on short rest.  More importantly to my point, we know that regular or extra rest does not immunize against it.

[97] But if AJ is 20% more likely to be awful on short rest, that actually affects the calculation of whether to put him in yesterday.  I was ok with going with SG‘s 5% worse overall #, but maybe there’s a statistically significant, identifiable subsample of 3-days-rest games pitched by AJ-like guys (i.e., on the inconsistent side of the spectrum) that looks rather worse than that.  Maybe looking at that data convinces Girardi to go with Marte/Robertson/Joba/Aceves/Mo yesterday.

SG—with all the discussion about “hacktastic players” and their postseason performance, would it be possible to get concrete data on that?

I suppose it’s possible, but:
1) We have to define what constitutes a hacktastic player. 
2) We have to control for the quality of their opposition.
3) With the small sample sizes inherent in any postseason series, there will be a lot of statistical noise that will possibly make whatever we see essentially meaningless.

Seems like a non-trivial amount of work for something that I don’t think would really tell us all that much.

maybe there’s a statistically significant, identifiable subsample of 3-days-rest games pitched by AJ-like guys (i.e., on the inconsistent side of the spectrum) that looks rather worse than that

As soon as you start talking about “AJ-like guys” you’ve left the realm of objective analysis and entered the realm of speculation.  And again, my point was to address the lack of validity to the assumption, rampant in some quarters, that there was no chance of bad AJ showing up on five days rest.  Bad AJ showed up on regular rest in game 5 of the ALCS.

Also, if a guy has a 20% clunker propensity and short rest increases that by 20%, then you’re still not talking about that big a change in the odds of finding yourself in the situation the Yankees found themselves in after three inning last night.  So it still gets back to the chances that the available alternatives would put you in the same boat.