The Howard-Werth-Ibanez part of the order is an opportunity for Girardi to go nuts with pitching changes.  It may even be a good idea…

Bring in Marte to get Howard, Gaudin to get Werth, Coke to get Ibanez.  Then go to Robertson for an inning.  Stuff like that.

About Shane Victorino:
He’s historically hit better against lefties .762 OPS vs. LHP compared to .836 vs. RHP).

?

SG, how are you dealing with your torn loyalties?  I know you want Cairo to get a ring.

[1] Yeah, depending on how everything works out.  Ideally, that is the 7th inning and you could go Coke/Marte-Joba-Coke/Marte, and then Hughes in the 8th with Mo in reserve.

Of course things won’t go that cleanly.  We’re more likely to hit that situation with one and one out in the sixth, IWC if it’s CC just let him get out of it, AJ start the above series of pitchers, Andy let him face Howard and bring Joba in for Werth, Coke leading off the 7th.  Hopefully it is moot with the Yankees taking a 5 run lead into the inning…

with one on

Hopefully it is moot with the Yankees taking a <u>10</u> run lead into the inning…

fixed.

?

It’s called a typo.

SG, how are you dealing with your torn loyalties?  I know you want Cairo to get a ring.

It’s tough, but you root for laundry.

also, does fangraph offer lefty/righty splits besides those charts that have like, two data points on them? I can’t seem to find them.

Let’s-Go-Laundry!

I imagine the odds depend strongly on the AAAA correction factor - did I miss that above?

[7] My bad. I need some sleep. Getting grumpy and abrasive.
Thanks for the great stuff as usual!

SG,

The pitching numbers - are they projections based on postseason numbers that were carried out over an entire season or are they 2009 numbers in aggregate (season + postseason)?

I just did a double check on Pedro and he’s only had 44.2 innings pitched in 2009 and 7 in the postseason.

[10] That sounds like it would be really hard to calculate, with the two leagues only meeting during interleague play. Based on those samples, I imagine it would be pretty difficult to calculate an overall talent difference between the AL and NL.

Or maybe I’m taking that post too seriously.

Naptime.
Toodles.

Rollins predicts Phils in five so this is all an exercise in futility

[11] Again, didn’t mean to nitpick. I appreciate everything, especially this site being free and all and offering some of the best analysis I’ve found anywhere on the internet.

Ok zzz fo’ real.

I don’t get all the Mets fans who will root for Phils.  I would never root for the Mets unless they played Boston then I’d become Mr Met.

[13] Looking at the RS and RA (or studying players who shift leagues) you get an estimate with some statistical uncertainty which you can beat down by looking at data over a few seasons.  I guess there’s some systematic difficulty concerning the DH but since the effect is pretty large I wouldn’t think one needs a ton of data to get a better than nothing correction factor.

Geez, I didn’t expect to write so much about Werth.

Why not?  I find him to be one of the most interesting players on that team.

Rollins predicts Phils in five so this is all an exercise in futility

Rollins also predicted he would have a good season, so…

It’s probably good to start discussing Worth as rumor has it the Sox will be acquiring him this offseason for the guy who holds EVERY postseason pitching record (Papelbon).

Of course these rumors are from the comments section at mlbtr.

also, does fangraph offer lefty/righty splits besides those charts that have like, two data points on them? I can’t seem to find them.

I like the splits at Baseball Reference, that’s usually where I get them.

The pitching numbers - are they projections based on postseason numbers that were carried out over an entire season or are they 2009 numbers in aggregate (season + postseason)?

I just did a double check on Pedro and he’s only had 44.2 innings pitched in 2009 and 7 in the postseason.

Projections are based on 2006-2009 regular season stats, with a weight of 35% on 2009.  Pedro’s projection would be one I wouldn’t trust at all because I don’t think he’s the same pitcher that he was before his injuries.  He may be worse, he may be better, but he’s different in many ways.

I imagine the odds depend strongly on the AAAA correction factor - did I miss that above?

Nope, I just didn’t include it yet..  I’m adding that now with the Yankees part of the post.

Looking at the RS and RA (or studying players who shift leagues) you get an estimate with some statistical uncertainty which you can beat down by looking at data over a few seasons.

Yeah, I tend to think it’s best to look at the players who’ve shifted leagues and how they performed in comparison to how we would have expected them to perform.  If we’re trying to isolate the difference in talent, I think player data would tell us more than team data.

I wonder if Rollins is popular amongst his teammates. All of these predictions have to grate on them if/when he is wrong.

I have this nightmare of Carlos Ruiz playing the Jeff Mathis ‘Johnny Bench’ role in the World Series for some reason.

SG, stealing my ideas ain’t cool! I’ll take my grievances to the basement owner or something.

Why not?  I find him to be one of the most interesting players on that team

Apparently I do too.

I’ll take my grievances to the basement owner or something.

Mom?  I think she’s going to side with me.

Thanks for the brain feast on this second off-day, SG.  Delish!

If you bring in Coke to get Howard with Werth on deck followed by Raul Ibanez, do you risk Coke against the righty Werth to deal with Ibanez after that, or do you pull Coke for a righty then figure out where to go with Ibanez after that?

Did Girardi get fired, cause otherwise, that question answers itself.

I guess the question is, after Coke gets brought in to throw the first 3 pitches to Howard, and then Marte is brought in to throw the next 3 to him, who do you go to for pitches 7 and 8 in the AB?

[27] Phil Hughes.  But only for pitch 7.  Teh ate belongs to Joba.

Marte has better spilits as LOOGY this year then Coke 494 OPS against compared to 584 but he’s been putrid vs righties 1175 against Coke’s 778.  So I guess I’d rather have Marte pitch to Howard in a big AB

Marte for Howard, Joba or Robertson for Werth, Coke for Ibanez then Hughes assuming its too early for Mo.

58.7% is pretty awesome considering the Phillies are winning this thing in 5.
I really do feel better - thought it was going to be closer to 50-50.

Probably can get a good price on Phils in 5 or less, thanks Jimmy.  Does that constitute insider trading?

I thought we were predicting phillies in 3…

[33] Angels in 7.

FWIW, BP has the amusingly precise 59.8706%.

Coolstandings has this at 60.7% Yankees, 39.3% Phillies.  They have the Yankees winning in 6 games, which was also their prediction for the Halos series.

Whatever the Yankees % to win is, I am just happy there is a 0% chance Jeff Weaver is brought into extra innings, David Wells leaves a start after one inning, Aaron Boone fails to get a runner in from third with one out, and Tim McCarver gives Josh Beckett a verbal blow-j.

” Aaron Boone fails to get a runner in from third with one out”

There are plenty of Yankees carrying that torch.

[37] I am also glad that Soriano is not getting benched for Enrique Wilson and that Luis Sojo is not on the roster and that Javier Vasquez, after leading the AL in HR allowed, will not be brought in to face a lefty hitter in NYS with the bases loaded.

I think I might be the only one is really scared of the Phillies. I mean their whole outfield is better than the Yankees outfield defensively and offensively, at first base it’s a push, second base slight edge to Phillies, shortstop slight edge to Yanks, third base base edge to Yankees, and catcher edge to Yankees but I don’t know how we can say that considering the fact that Carlos Ruiz is 100X better in the playoffs than he is in the regular season. Our pitching rotation is obviously better but I think our bullpen can be a question mark and that solely depends on whether Phil and Joba are going to show up. I might be too worried but this is how I feel.

NYT Bats blog says, “The Phillies, meanwhile, added the right-hander Brett Myers to the roster and dropped infielder Miguel Cairo”, which bites.

I’m not overly worried about the Phils necessarily, but I do think it will be a difficult series, and I’d be surprised if it was over before game 6.

Yankees have a 64.0633332% chance of winning.

[(Yanks payroll)/(Yanks payroll + Phils payroll)]

Advanced stats are easy.

The Phillies will regret that move as RLPW will have “the curse of oh lets say Miguel Cairo” ticker.

I mean their whole outfield is better than the Yankees outfield defensively and offensively…

Looks pretty even to me.  The OF that they’ll actually play in the DH games projects to be worth 11 BR for the series, and is +2 or 3 runs/150 games on defense.  The Yanks OF projects to 12 BR and + 2 on defense.

...I think our bullpen can be a question mark…

Yeah, and the Phils have seven Dennis Eckersley clones out there.

Oops, forgot the non-DH games.  The Phillies gain 4 projected batting runs but give back 4 or more defensive runs/150.  Also forgot to mention that I have a very difficult time accepting that Matt Stairs is an above-average defensive outfielder.

prior to this season I had the AL around 4% better than the NL ... In general, players who moved from the NL did 4% worse than they’d have projected to, and players who made the opposite switch did 4% better.

Isn’t that an 8% difference?

second base slight edge to Phillies, shortstop slight edge to Yanks, third base base edge to Yankees,

I still love Cano, but Utley is probably more than a slight edge over the ninja.
Jeter is more than a slight edge over Rollins when considering what he’s done all year (including the second half).
And the advantage at third probably accounts for more than a few other slight position edges the Phillies have over the Yankees.

I like the fact that Joe Blanton may actually start a game against the Yankees.  Damon could be the Yankees starting pitcher in that game and I’d still feel good about their chances.

I don’t want the series to go seven games because I’ll probably be dead before that happens, but it sure would make for an exciting Game 7 (unless the Yankees had just blown a 3-0 series lead).

I like the fact that Joe Blanton may actually start a game against the Yankees.

You are just asking for a perfect game against the Yankees right there, ya know.

I want a stress-free sweep. These pitching problems will go away if the bats perform. Nobody will care if Hughes gives up two doubles in a row if the Yankees are up 9.

Dear Mr. Rollins.
These lads ain’t the Mets
respectfully
      otf

Thanks for the preview SG

A.Phil, Jonathan- Chase Saxblauch better than Robby Morgan? Really?
Bebop, brogen- I just watched Sundays Curb. I want Maureen, what a lifesaver.
I’m still laughing. Up there with Bam Bam Funkhouser from September.

Isn’t that an 8% difference?

No.  How do you figure that?  Let’s say we have a player and he’s projected to be worth 100 runs in the NL.  If we move him to the AL he’d project to be worth 96 runs instead.  If he instead was originally in the AL and projected to be worth 96 runs, moving him the to the NL boosts him to 100.  Not sure how that turns out to be 8%.

If you were doing a neutral league projection, you’d project an NL player to be 2% worse in a neutral league and an AL player to be 2% better.

I’m with [50].  I don’t want a good series.  I want four straight 10-0 Yankees wins.

The Phillies will regret that move as RLPW will have “the curse of oh lets say Miguel Cairo” ticker.

It’s irrelevant, because Selig is about to announce an emergency Red Sox/Nationals world series, but I would support a “blessing of Miguel Cairo, the Yankees have been world champs for xxx” ticker.

Nobody will care if Hughes gives up two doubles in a row if the Yankees are up 9.

Cause Mo will be brought in?

Come on. All the stress is worth it if they win. Down 0-2 in ‘96 was a lot sweeter than steamrolling the Pads in ‘98. Who’s going to remember sweeping the Twins twice—but you know exactly where you were sitting for Aaron Boone, don’t you?

The valleys are lower, but the peaks are higher. Worth a little white-knuckle baseball.

... that having been said I never need to see the equivalent of Jay Witasick in a leveragey situation in the postseason ever again.

Damon could be the Yankees starting pitcher in that game and I’d still feel good about their chances. 

C’mon, we all know that Swisher should pitch.  Does’t he average 1 K/IP? Plus, he’d finally get to contribute something.

1996 was especially sweet because it had been a long time.  I guess for some of you whippersnappers it was the first time, but that would make it even more special.  OTOH, it means you have no idea what it’s like to wait eighteen years.

But steamrolling the Padres in 1998 was a pinnacle in its own right.  When a team has peaks that high, the perspective added by the valleys becomes superfluous.  Coronations have their own special charm.

Germantown looms, ehh Donno?

Elsewhere…....... The St. Louis Cardinals announce Barry Bonds as their new nutrition co-ordinator.

Coronations have their own special charm.

One of my favorite moments as a Yankee fan was watching the 1999 sweep of the Braves, with the fans in the upper decks at Yankee stadium waving the brooms like tomahawks and mock chanting: “whoaaa-oh-ohahohhhh!! whoaa-oh-oahohhhh!!!”  It was just cruel, joyous hilarity.  The nail biter doesn’t have this kind of extended dance.

In truth, should it come, I expect I’ll enjoy a series win pretty much the same now matter what its form.

I know Kruk is a Philly homeboy, but yeesh.  Every other player he claims “will not be intimidated by the Yankees.”

Interesting.  Just saw Robertson’s splits vs L/R on River Ave Blues: 189/277/324 vs lefties, 237/343/409 vs righties, with a slightly better K rate vs lefties as well.

Not a massive platoon difference, but enough of one to suggest that he pitches lefties very tough and should be used accordingly.

Of course, Girardi has had trouble recognizing that Robertson pitches everyone tough, so why would he start using him more now.

So long our prospective guests leave having been proven Germantown Pikers, OTF.

One of my favorite moments as a Yankee fan was watching the 1999 sweep of the Braves, with the fans in the upper decks at Yankee stadium waving the brooms like tomahawks and mock chanting: “whoaaa-oh-ohahohhhh!! whoaa-oh-oahohhhh!!!” It was just cruel, joyous hilarity. 

Dave, you heard it wrong, or you misremember.

It was a tomahawk chop, for sure.  But in the bleachers we were chanting/singing these words: “F***-the-bra-a-aves!  F***-the-bra-a-aves!”

Sweet, indeed.

Oh, and Don’s “the Phllies loom” looms.

Ah, good times. Lupica just filed a column about how the Yankees ... get this ... spent a lot of money on free agents. FFS, sportswriters. I can’t wait for newspapers to die. And I say this as a journalist.

Thanks for the write up. I don’t know the phillies too well.

Go Yanks! Only 13 1/2 hours away!

Rick Reilly on Swisher. Keep in mind, he describes his column as a “mind dump,” which is a revolting image, albeit honest. But worth reading for the part about Swisher’s collage.

Damon could be the Yankees starting pitcher in that game and I’d still feel good about their chances.

Sure he’d be fine.  As long as he had Jeter as a cutoff man betweent he mound and home plate.

Yes, in hindsight it would be the awesomest of awesomes if the Yankees went down 0-3 in the series, and were down each of the final 4 games heading into their half of the ninth, only to have a come-from-behind win.  Looking back it would be great to say I witnessed every minute of that.  However, in the interest of my health, I’ll take Yanksin 4 stress-free games, thanks.

I’m extremely disappointed in this poor analysis SG.  You mention that Posada and Matsui get paid, but don’t tell us the important stuff - how much!  And there isn’t a mention at all for how many millions Swisher, Cano, or Melky make.  And how can the pitching-staff be analyzed when you don’t mention how they have the #1 paid starter, closer, and overpaid #2 and #3 starters?  Follow the money man, follow the money…

I haven’t noticed any comments yet about Yankees’ roster: Guzman and Cervelli out, Bruney and Hinske in.  Bruney is a little controversial, but I guess if weather forces Gaudin to start it in Philly it could be useful to have another pitcher.

[64] “I know Kruk is a Philly homeboy, but yeesh.  Every other player he claims “will not be intimidated by the Yankees.””

Yeesh, indeed.  This is such a stupid and revealing argument on his part.  When people pick the Yankees to win, they’re not basing it on the idea that various opposing players will fail to perform due to intimidation.  They’re basing it on the idea that the Yankees have assembled a better collection of talent.  So what if Brad Lidge “won’t be intimidated”?  He’s still Brad Lidge, for heaven’s sake, and we’ve got Rivera.

I haven’t noticed any comments yet about Yankees’ roster: Guzman and Cervelli out, Bruney and Hinske in. 

It official?

[76] Sherman has it as official, yeah.

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/yankeesblog/hinske_bruney_on_yankees_roster_kibIquZENcPhHMpeIGxZmN

It official?

Reported in the NYPost as a “confidential”.  I’m not sure if they know what that word means.

So I guess I should have said the Yankees’ *rumored* roster, as this could be wrong, or Yanks could change their minds.

[77] Hah!  Should have just waited for J to save the day!

Didn’t I read somewhere that Miguel Cairo was left off the WS roster?

[79] What else am I going to do? Work?

So what if Brad Lidge “won’t be intimidated”?

So if Lidge comes in w/ a one-run lead, bottom nine, and proceeds to walk Teix and ARod hits a bomb, is that b/c Lidge *was* intimidated?  Would he then be intimidated next time?  Or just the fact that, you know, Teix and ARod are better than he is?

This is another interesting tidbit from Sherman:

Hideki Matsui hasn’t played the outfield all year because Joe Girardi didn’t want to blow out Matsui’s surgically repaired knees.

However, with a maximum 10 days remaining in the season, the Yankees aren’t ruling out using Matsui in the outfield as part of a double switch when the Series shifts to Philly for Games 3, 4 and 5 (if necessary) when the DH won’t be used.

“There is a possibility, it’s something we will discuss,” Girardi said. “The one thing about Matsui is you see how he is running and you know that you don’t necessarily have to keep him healthy the next two or three months. You have to keep him healthy for about 10 days. It’s something we will have to think about.”

Matsui is batting .233 (7-for-30) with five RBIs in nine postseason games.

Makes sense to at least keep it as an option for those NL games.

Does Cervelli out mean that Posada catches AJ?

Or just the fact that, you know, Teix and ARod are better than he is?

I think the answer is in the disgrace of a bandbox.

[84] I would think so, yeah. You can’t go into a game knowing you are going to pull your starting catcher in the 5th and not have a backup on the bench. Cervelli’s sole purpose seemed to be to catch in the later innings of the games where Molina started.

I’m concerned about Bruney’s command given the length of the layoff, but I like the makeup of this roster, especially if Po is starting every game.

I got a kick out of Girardi’s brutally utilitarian pronouncement about not needing to keep Matsui healthy.  Does this make me a bad person?

Here’s a more important question:  Has Matsui actually been maintaining his outfield skills (or “quote ‘skills’ endquote”) over lo these many months?  I agree there’s no health reason not to plug him in as part of a double-switch, but if the guy needs to rummage through his garage just to find his glove, that could be a problem.

[88] Here’s a more important question:  Has Matsui actually been maintaining his outfield skills (or “quote ‘skills’ endquote”) over lo these many months? 

That assumes he has/had OF skills.

I recall reading over the last few months that he told the Yankees that he wants to play the OF, but I don’t know if he has been working out there.

I suppose that with Guzman out, Cervelli would have been a serviceable pinch runner.  Not to steal a base, but possibly to score from first on an XBH.  After all, many of us get misty remembering Posada pinch running in the 1995 LDS.  Or maybe that’s just from laughing so hard.

But yeah, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll plan on pulling the starting catcher in the middle innings.  Also, carrying an extra pitcher makes it a little tougher to pinch run for Posada since it means burning two players.  Unless we’ve got a starting pitcher who is a viable pinch runner, and I don’t think we do.

Who’s the emergency catcher?

[89] That’s what I was thinking.. in a pinch, a pitcher can pinch run. Burnett, perhaps?  Actually.. I don’t know if that’s such a good idea. Maybe a reliever who was burned from throwing the day before? I remember Torre did this with Jaret Wright once - sort of a ‘you might as well pinch run, because you suck at pitching’ statement.

[90 ]Who’s the emergency catcher?

FWIW:

In an article dated August 29, 2009 in the NYT:

Since the Yankees acquired Hairston from the Cincinnati Reds on July 31, he has batted .382 with two homers, nine runs batted in and six walks in the 11 games that he has started. Manager Joe Girardi said he would not hesitate to use Hairston at any infield or outfield position, and also called him an emergency catcher.

“It’s a real luxury,” Girardi said. “You feel that you can almost put him in seven different spots. There’s not a lot of guys that can do that.”

[92] Best I can tell, Hairston has never caught professionally, majors or minors.  That of course doesn’t mean he *can’t* catch.  And for all I know he was a catcher in HS and didn’t move to 2B until college.  Hopefully it doesn’t come to that.

Also, carrying an extra pitcher makes it a little tougher to pinch run for Posada since it means burning two players.

That may be a good thing. Unless they are in a situation where “runner scores or game is over”, I think I’d rather keep Posada’s bat in the lineup.

Also, carrying an extra pitcher makes it a little tougher to pinch run for Posada since it means burning two players.

That may be a good thing. Unless they are in a situation where “runner scores or game is over”, I think I’d rather keep Posada’s bat in the lineup.

We are talking here about Girardi, right?

[93] You’re right. I noticed that too before I posted the above link. Obviously, it would truly have to be an emergency. But if anyone can assess a player’s aptitude for catching, it’s probably Girardi.

Re: Matsui in LF, Yankee LF saw 311 fieldable chances as defined by Stats Inc. for zone rating in 2009.  That works out to around 1.92 chances per game.  Assuming a similar distribution, putting Matsui out in LF for a few innings shouldn’t be a huge issue, although obviously one specific missed play could be the difference between an extremely important win or loss.

I’d think the Yankees would take into consideration who’s due up and who’s pitching and look for situations where there is less likelihood of a fly ball going to LF if Matsui’s going to be out there as well.

It’s not like Damon’s a Gold Glover out there anyway.