Does this take into account that Andy and CC are on 3day rest?

Does this take into account that Andy and CC are on 3day rest?

Yeah, I limited them both to 6 innings and made their projected RAs about 5% worse.

Man, would that suck.

Except it’s not going to happen, so stop worrying about it.

Question: IF (it is a big if) Andy has a “vintage” performance tonight, does it go a long way towards getting him into the HOF?  Say he’s just in a zone, and goes 8IP, 0R, 10K, 2H, 0BB, in a 3-0 win?  One of the big selling points for Jack Morris (who I don’t think belongs in, BTW) has been game 7 1991.  Will Andy get the same treatment?  Remember too I’m not asking if he’ll *deserve* the HOF any more (though I think he will, if only a little).  But will it make him more-likely?  I think yes, and that and another 20 wins or so would get him in.  Go Andy!

Of course, Morris has been on the ballot for ten years.  He hovered around 20% of the vote his first few years, then jumped to 33% and now has moved all the way up to 44%.  But he’s hovering again, not really on an upward trend.

A big game tonight certainly won’t hurt Pettitte’s case.  Lore always helps.  But I think he need to pile up several hundred more effective regular season innings (and wins, of course) before he’s got a legitimate shot at election.

Pettitte probably still needs more regular season counting stats, but if he gets a win tonight, that makes him 18-9 in the postseason.  Can he pitch another two seasons and win something like 30 games?  That gets him to 259, which may be a little low still.  But if he plays another two seasons and gets a couple of wins in the postseason on top of it, getting him to 20 postseason wins I think he gets more consideration.

Still not sure he would deserve it, but maybe that’s something we can look at in the offseason with a Keltner list or something.

Supposing Pettitte gets bombed tonight, but pitches a few more years, gets over 260 wins, the Yanks win this WS, and he gets those 20 PS wins.  What say you?

Andy’s not a HoF pitcher.  Neither is Morris, IMO, but Morris at least has over 250 wins and isn’t an admitted HGH user.  The only way I could see Andy getting in would be if he hangs around for a lot more years and gets close to 300 wins.

Another question: if Andy gets the clinching win tonight, that gives him 6 clinching wins in the postseason, most all-time by 2. Other than Whitey Ford, what starting pitcher has meant more to this team? I know the whole retiring numbers thing is out of hand, but how do you not retire Andy’s number?

Do Andy’s postseason numbers really add that much lustre to his resume?  Sure he’s got the wins, but his ERA and FIP in the playoffs are just a tad better than his regular season marks.  Contrast this with Schilling, who has a 3.46 career ERA in the regular season, but a 2.23 ERA in October.  Frankly, even Schilling seems like a pretty borderline HoF candidate to me, but at least you can say, in his case, that he really dominated in the postseason.

Back to the topic at hand, I’m not worried about the Yankees falling apart.  The only thing that worries me is the inherent element of luck that exists in every game (BABIP, etc.).  The Yankees have already satisfied me that they’re the better team.  It would be a shame if the baseball gods contrive to deny them the title.

[8] I think we’ll all see #2, #42, #20, #51, #46 and #13 retired at some point.

... and #6.

Triple-digit numbers, baby.

Still not sure he would deserve it, but maybe that’s something we can look at in the offseason with a Keltner list or something.

One way I think of doing it is looking at something like where he stands on the all-time WAR list.  We can use Sean Smith’s, which is through 2008.  Of course there are some limitations to the data - especially pre-1954 players - but I think it should be good enough for a swag.  Obviously too just b/c he’s ahead of player-X who’s in the HOF or behind player-Y who isn’t, isn’t a final say.  But I think it’s useful.

Through 2008, Andy was the 95th “best” pitcher in baseball history. 
Doesn’t sound great, but that also puts him ahead of HOF’ers Lefty Gomez, Bob Lemon, and Dizzy Dean (among others).  Those guys all have something Pettitte doesn’t - really high peak, 300-wins, etc - but Pettitte also has the rings, PS wins, etc.  Also of course there’s Pettitte’s 2009, which was probably around 3 WAR (by Smith’s version).  That would put him up around #80, right around Bob Friend and Dwight Gooden.  Mo will be right around there as well, and the only player behind Pettitte that has a chance of passing him this year would be Halladay.

So through 2009 I think he’s clearly borderline.  He’s right in the midst of guys who have and have not made it (and have/have not deserved it).  Now, if we also give him 2 more years w/ about 30 wins, he should get between 3-6 more WAR on top of that.  That would put him somewhere between David Wells and Whitey Ford (and others).  Still borderline, but obviously closer. 

FWIW, it looks like 60 WAR and you have a real good shot at getting in.  There are currently 42 pitchers w/ at least 60 WAR, and of those I think only 5 won’t get in (eventually).  They are (least to most) Luis Tiant, Jim McCormick, Kevin Brown, Tony Mullane, and Rick Reuschel.  So yeah, I think he’ll need about 12 more WAR *after* this year.  IOW, 4 more seasons like this past one.  I think then he’s definitely in, and almost definitely deserves it.

Austin Jackson can be 99A

[11] Agreed.  #24 has a good head start as well, but he’s still got a lot of work to do.

Also, FWIW, Jack Morris is #136 on Smith’s list, with 39.3 WAR.  Which is why I compared him, b/c Pettitte’s career has definitely been better (though maybe not perceived as better).  So how much did the post-season lore add to Morris?  5%?  10%?  20%?  Can Pettitte get a similar bounce, and if so would that put him over the top?  E.g. if Morris had bombed that game 7 would he instead have topped out at 25%?  Would Andy be at 40% w/o the lore, and this could get him to 60%?  I think studies have shown if you ever hit 50% in the HOF balloting, you are almost definitely going to get in (I think only one player hasn’t so far).

Do you guys seriously think that Andy Pettitte will be the first-ever confessed steroid user to reach the HOF?

[17] Bonds will certainly get in before all of them. Although, isn’t it shaping up to be Bonds and Clemens on the same ballot?

[18] Yeah, they both last played in 2007.  Technically neither one is a “confessed steriod user”.  And actually *being* a confessed user may help.

I don’t think either Bonds or Clemens will get in on the first ballot.  I think a lot of writers will want to get some of the “clean” players - like Maddox - in first.  A lot will also want to make a statement.  But year 2 or 3 - certainly by year 5 - they’ll be in.  And that will open it up to some of the others as well.

[18] I am not so sure about Bonds. The moral high horse is pretty darn high. Only a Centaur can rise on top of it.

[17] Who else has confessed?  I’m close to drawing a blank.  There’s A-Rod; Canseco of course.  Caminetti?  Virtually every player whose name has turned up has either denied it or stonewalled the question.

[21] Brian Roberts, I think.

Of the players who have been caught, I’d say the one who has the best chance of being the first to get into the HoF would be Manny.  He’s got a good combination of being close to retirement, impeccable HoF credentials, and no legal or serious moral entanglements stemming from his steroids use.

[21] I think lots of players have confessed, it’s just that most of them don’t have a shot at the HoF.  Knoblauch I think has confessed as well.  Wally Joyner I believe wrote (or consented to be interviewed for) an article where he confessed to “trying” steriods for a short while.

[23] Not that I think he won’t get in.  I just don’t think he’ll come up until after someone else gets in.  I’d say Manny will probably play for 2-3 more years, maybe longer.  So by the time he’s even up for election - 7+ years - one of the (many) others will get in.

I had a most satisfying moment watching the game on Saturday night at my local watering hole.  I got to talking to a fairly casual totally non-SABR savvy Yankee fan, and we were talking about the Hall, and out of the blue he exclaims: “You know what’s a f***ing crime, man?  That Blyleven isn’t in the Hall of Fame.  He had one of the best curveballs of all time.  I never understood that.”

I think Pettitte only confessed to using HGH, and even then, only as a means of speeding his recovery from injury.

[25] Like who?

[26] I think the question becomes whether or not you believe him about the injury thing. This steroids situation is a strange thing.. guys seem to get a pass if they have some combination of (1) likability before it was revealed that they took steroids, (2) a believable story and (3) a genuine (or what is perceived as a genuine) apology/confession. Pettitte gets all 3, but a guy Rodriguez didn’t seem to get any. Bonds and Clemens likewise. I really think that those circumstances will come into play for HOF voting, although, in Pettitte’s case, it will be interesting to hear what writers say after the voting since he’ll likely be a borderline HOF candidate at best anyway.

.. of course Bonds and Clemens made no attempt at (3), but didn’t have (1) or (2) either.

MC-  Previous thread-You are right about Schmidt- I was thinking of the 80 playoffs not 83.  I guess I probably paid more attention in 80 due to Yanks vs.KC.

As to Cano- he’s frusterating in a lot of ways, but to appreciate him fully is to think where second base was just prior to his arrival. Weren’t those the days of WOEmack?

2004’s primary second baseman was Miguel Cairo, who actually had a good year. I have no idea why Enrique Wilson got so many at-bats.

Tony Womack got all of one month at 2B in 2005 before giving way to Cano on my 18th birthday.

[11] Put me down in favor of retiting #21 as well.

I had no idea Vicente Padilla’s propensity to come inside applied to the firing range too.

Thurm, I owe you an email.

And wow Brett Myers really is a douche.

If Pettitte can pitch the Yanks to victory tonight, he’ll get first-ballot HOF votes from the NY/NJ media.  Everyone else?  As others have said, Pettitte will have to accumulate some more stats.

I don’t think the HGH use will harm his HOF chances. As the dust settles on the “steroids in baseball” scandal, people will begin to analyze it a bit more rationally.  People will being to differentiate between those who used HGH to heal more quickly and those who abused steroids year in and year out to boost muscle mass and/or performance.

In other words, history will treat guys like Pettitte much better than guys like Bonds.

If AJ Burnett had said what Cole Hamels had said, the media uproar would be deafening.

[33] Heard Al Leiter on Micheal Kay yesterday mention that he heard that Myers or Happ might be in line to start a would-be game 7 - partly because of Hamels lack of confidence (as evidenced by his comments) and partly because of his general ineffectiveness throughout the playoffs.

Hopefully this will be the last time these need to be posted this season.

As great as these posts have been, I echo this sentiment.

A brave few pundits had the Yanks winning in five.  Most had them at six or seven.  Here we are.

Id wager that both Bonds and Clemens get into the Hall.

I’ve always liked Pettite but has he ever been even the best pitcher on this team? (Looking back, maybe ‘97?  Though I thought of Cone as the top pitcher at the time.) I really hesitate about calling someone a hall of famer who wasn’t in the discussion as the best pitcher of his era.

[27] I already stated I think Bonds or Clemens will get in by year 5, probably earlier.  I think that will be before Manny is eligible.  There’s also a shot as time goes by that MacGuire starts to get more support and makes it in as well.  And, of course, it is quite likely that some other guy with can’t miss #‘s will be implicated in the next few years, as well.

I’ve always liked Pettite but has he ever been even the best pitcher on this team?

Well, there was all that time he spent in Boston.  Pretty sure he was damn good then.

Damn, I read “Clemens” instead of “Pettitte”.  nvrmnd

[39] It’s ok, I read ‘Houston’ instead of ‘Boston’.

[36] And they should. Steroids or not they were both great players, before steroid use. Also, as we’ve discussed in depth before, the actual effect of steroid use on baseball is questionable.

I’m not saying there is no effect, I’m just questioning how much of an effect it actually has.

[42] I would say that breaking the 60 HR mark 5 separate times (McGwire (70, 65) Bonds (73), Sosa (66, 63, 64)) when it had only been done once in 70+ is all the evidence some people need to say it has an effect.

[42] I’m always inclined to say “minor,” but Brady Anderson might tell you different.

I’m as big a Pettitte fan as anyone.  But, he has two seasons in the top five for ERA, and he only got close to a Cy Young once in 96.  He won’t even sniff the HOF, and probably shouldn’t.  He’s one of my favorite pitchers ever, but never because he’s an ace.

70+ years

Bman, Kruk and Gammons were totally sweeping the Myers/Hammel deal under the rug last night. Even maing excuses for them.

Myers was described as a “competitor” and IF anything happened maybe he was “just joking around and things got a little out of hand.”

Then they went on to say “no one would rather take the mound more in game 7 than Cole Hamels.” Any altercation that did happen apparently will help the Phillies because “they like to play with a chip on their shoulder.”

It’s funny how different the coverage would have been if let’s say Robertson had tried to fight Hughes for not stepping up this postseason.

I had a dream last night that Joba started game 6. He took a 1-0 lead into the 7th. He then intentionally drilled Ruiz. Ruiz then punched Joba followed by Joba knocking him down with a punch (using his pitching hand!). Then Joba slammed Ruiz’ head (WWE turnbuckle-style) into something in the dugout. Later on Joba was still in the dugout laughing about it (not sure why he wasnt ejected but mlb umps do make mysterious decisions).

The Yankees added an insurance run in the 8th with a Jeter RBI single.

My dream ended before the 9th started but its safe to assume Mo closed it out.

So Swisher jokes in front of some reporters about Gardner’s great catch that he was just trying to get on TV, and Gardner ripostes, “Him, of all people.”

Here’s something to get everyone pumped up. The loudest moment in Yankee Stadium history!

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=2685722

not sure why he wasnt ejected

Turns out they decided that was not an ejectable offense before the game, but neglected to tell either manager.

Or this!! This is loud too!

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=2685727

Rules question - can you move players in between position during the game and back again? For instance, could I start Teixiera at 1B in the top of the 1st, switch him and Rodriguez after 1 out, and then switch them back after 2 outs?

Braves signed Scott Proctor.  I didn’t know the Venus de Milo had any value on a baseball roster.

[54] Glad to hear. Proctor seems like a nice guy and I know he had some problems with depression and alcohol related to the troubles his baby went through early in her life. Hopefully Joe Torre didn’t completely destroy his arm.

2004’s primary second baseman was Miguel Cairo, who actually had a good year. I have no idea why Enrique Wilson got so many at-bats.

If memory serves me right, Wilson had a ridiculously good spring training, he hit something like .500 I think, seriously.  That won him the starting job out of camp, at which he point he became Enrique Wilson again.  Cairo was the UIF and got sporadic PT, but did well when he did.  Eventually, Torre made the move to Cairo as the primary 2B.  I’ll see what BB Ref says about my memory.

[47] If by “competitor” they mean general douche and all around bad person…

[53] Yes.  You can deploy everyone except the pitcher and catcher any way you want to on any given play.

Cool tidbit about the video in 50 is the brief shot of pinch runner extraordinaire Jorge Posada high fiving a youthful and gazelle-like Bernie Williams, who is rocking an early 90s Wesley Snipes haircut.

[58] How about bringing an OFer in to pitch and then back again?

[53] Actually, the rules about the pitcher having to stand on the rubber and the catcher having to stand in the catcher’s box are irrelevant to your question, so I should have just left my answer at “yes.”

[58] Yeah, I wasn’t really talking about they line up on the field. I guess I should have just went straight for to my pitching question. I vaguely remember somebody doing something like this.

Nice picture of Jeter on the new SI world series cover-for you collectors like me.

[60] Whitey Herzog did this in the WS when he was with the Cardinals.  He sent Todd Worrell to RF a couple of times so he could bring in a LOOGY.  Can’t remember who the LOOGY was OTTOMH.

Ok, I was right.  Wilson hit .462/.476/.718 in 41 PAs in the spring of 2004. 

He then proceeded to hit .167/.212/.167 through the end of April while starting around 89% of the games.  Cairo hit .250/.333/.500 over that same stretch. 

Looks like Torre starting giving Cairo more PAs from that point, and he played about 80% of the games at 2B over the rest of the season.

I’m thinking about a team that can manage their 25 man roster more effectively by having pitchers than can also play the OF well.

Cairo also had the two out bottom of the 11th game tying double off Curt Leskanic in the Jeter dive game.

[50] Gosh, Donnie Baseball looks positively diminutive, huh? Sure don’t really see pandemonium like that in the stands anymore.

I could be off, but I believe they changed the rule about pitchers swapping positions during an inning. I think you can still do it, just not during the inning (so you could have a lefty pitch the 12th and a righty pitch the 13th, with each guy swapping places in the outfield, but you couldn’t do it during at-bats).

As for the Hall of Fame stuff, I find it hard to believe that voters will be all that less douche-y in ten years than they are now when it comes to steroids.

That’s why A-Rod needs to play until 2017, because MAYBE by 2022 people will be less douche-y about steroids.

OK, my memory is playing tricks on me.  Can’t find the WS example that I was sure I watched on TV.  However, leading 1-0 with one out in the ninth inning of the game 6 of the 1987 NLCS, Herzog did bring in Ken Dayley when the Giants sent Harry Spilman, a LHB, up to pinch hit for Don Robinson.  Worrel went to RF and the Giants countered with Chris Speier.  Dayley retired Speier and Jose Uribe to end the game, so Worrel did not return to the mound.

Of course, if you did this in an AL game, the pitcher who moved to the OF would have to be inserted into the batting order.  So if he returned to the mound, you’d lose the DH.  No double switching with the DH spot allowed.

If A-Rod has more postseasons like this one, and the Yankees win a few more rings as a result, I think it’s likely to help his HoF chances almost as much as a change in the Zeitgeist regading PEDs.

Tex, Swish, Robbie, Gardner-the time has come the walrus said

[71] No, A-Rod doesn’t need any of that. There was never a question that his talent and stats are not HoF worthy. What you are saying is equivalent to saying that a couple more good post-seasons by Willie Mays will improve his Hall of Fame chances.

A-Rod’s on-field achievements don’t need any further embellishment. If he retired after this year, his on-field achievements are worthy of elite Hall of Fame status.

The only question is PEDs.

Also, history will be a lot more kinder to the likes of Bonds, Clemens and Rodriguez compared to a guy like Pettitte than the current populace are, or for that matter to Pete Rose. Just look at Shoeless Joe Jackson. It is irrelevant the man is not in the Hall of Fame. History will remember baseball players for their baseball talent, and not their character flaws. Otherwise, a guy like Ty Cobb, possibly the biggest douche to ever set foot on a baseball field, will not be recognized as one of the best ever to play the game.

People will remember Rodriguez, Clemens and Bonds for the sheer dominance they had in the era they played in fifty years from now. All of the BBWAA moral douches will be dead or incapacitated by then to spew their inconsequential venom.

Arod, Bonds and Clemens should be in the HOF; McGuire, Sosa, Palmiero shouldn’t.

I could be off, but I believe they changed the rule about pitchers swapping positions during an inning. I think you can still do it, just not during the inning (so you could have a lefty pitch the 12th and a righty pitch the 13th, with each guy swapping places in the outfield, but you couldn’t do it during at-bats).

I don’t know if this represents a recent change, but from the official rules:

Rule 3.03 Comment: A pitcher may change to another position only once during the same inning; e.g. the pitcher will not be allowed to assume a position other than a pitcher more than once in the same inning.

So you can send your pitcher to another position and bring him back to the mound after a batter or two, but if you want to replace that pitcher for a second time in the same inning, he’s got to come out of the game.  Changing pitchers during an at-bat depends on whether the pitcher being removed had faced the previous batter.  Except in cases of injury, any pitcher who enters the game must pitch to at least one batter until that batter is retired or reaches safely.

[75] Care to elaborate?  Is your reasoning that the former would have amassed HOF stats with or without PEDs while the latter only achieved what they did because of PEDs?  Or is it that the latter careers are not HOF worthy once you adjust for era?

I’ll take any sort of win tonight, but I’m now rooting for the “storybook ending” (A-Rod walk-off).

Lou Piniella put LOOGY Sean Marshall into left for one batter, then brought him back to the mound for the next earlier this year. Which isn’t to say that it’s legal—I can imagine an umpire crew not being that familiar with the rule. Neyer tracked down other instances of moving a pitcher to the field with the intention of bringing him back to the mound.

In the case above, opposing manager Tony LaRussa sought clarification and received confirmation that upon returning to the mound, the pitcher had to face one batter before being replaced (even though he had already faced a batter earlier in the inning before his move to the outfield.) Upon learning this, LaRussa promptly pinch hit a righty.

I saw one of those pitcher-outfielder swaps in a Reds game in the 80s, and a controversy arose as to whether the pitcher who came back onto the mound after being in the outfield for a batter or two was entitled to any warmup pitches.  I seem to recall they gave him the additional 8 pitches even though he obviously was permitted to warm up before initially starting the inning and was already IN the game when he called upon to pitch the second time.  At the time, however, nobody seemed to know if this was a correct interpretation of the rules.

Andy’s HOF monitor is well over 100. His leaderboard stats aren’t that great but I think he’s a shoe in

77-the former

Ha, you can see Jeter leaping out of the dugout to congratulate Mattingly on that HR. Just like now.

I love Centaur, but I’m rooting for a Jeter walkoff. He’s the only one that hasn’t been pied yet.

[78] I am rooting for the first inning A-Rod grand slam, followed by knocking Pedro out, and most Yankees getting standing ovations in the later innings.

Your scenario would be great drama, but for once, I want the Yankee offense to jump out early and keep pouring on. I know they are fully capable of coming back if they fall behind, but the best way for Phillies to put pressure on the Yankees is to jump out to an early lead. That way, you immediately increase the Phillies chances of winning the game, and in a game seven, anything can happen.

I want the specter of game seven dead within the first half hour or so.

Here’s another idea to think about while we attempt to pass the time:

Men on first and second, nobody out.  Pitcher or other ineffectual hitter comes to bat obviously intending to bunt.  Why not bring in one of the outfielders to cover third base so the actual 3B can position himself for an easy play at third or even a possible DP?

[82] In order to make that judgement, you have to know exactly when those players were taking PED’s, and quantify what they did with them that they couldn’t have done otherwise. I’ve yet to see evidence on either count.

[85] If I was the opposing manager and I saw that, I’d have my guy swing away.

“[71] No, A-Rod doesn’t need any of that. There was never a question that his talent and stats are not HoF worthy. What you are saying is equivalent to saying that a couple more good post-seasons by Willie Mays will improve his Hall of Fame chances.”

This only makes sense in a universe where the HOF voters don’t care about PEDs.  There was no case of any sort against Mays.  Of course A-Rod strolls into the Hall based on his [regular-season] on-field accomplishments.  Maybe though some voters who have a near no-PED-users policy would be swayed by his 4 rings and 2 WS MVP awards.

[87] True, but then isn’t it highly probable the batter will make an out or two without advancing the runners?

Pettitte’s HOF monitor score is 108.  He’s well below the average HOFer on black ink, gray ink and HOF standards.  He’s thrown just under 3,000 regular season innings.  Most HOF pitchers below that threshold get WWII credit, Negro Leagues credit, injury credit or were primarily relievers.  A bunch of them were VC selections.  His lifetime ERA is 3.91; the highest of any HOFer is 3.80 (Red Ruffing, who made it in his final year of eligibility).  His ERA+ is tied for 172nd all-time, with 16 others including only one HOFer (Dennis Eckersley).  Most of the guys below him on that list had much longer careers and/or got to big milestones like 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts.  Andy is anything but a shoe-in.

Yankees OF will be tonight?  Should be?

There was no case of any sort against Mays.

And yet, 23 writers did not vote for him.

[73] A-Rod’s on-field achievements don’t need any further embellishment. If he retired after this year, his on-field achievements are worthy of elite Hall of Fame status.

The only question is PEDs.

There is unquestionably a segment of prospective voters who are going to deny him admission to the HoF based on his PED usage, and there is likely nothing that Alex can do to change their minds, however, there may be a segment of voters who are on the fence as a result of the PED admission that could possibly be persuaded to vote for him based on additional historic achievements, especially if those achievements negate the two perceived voids in A-Rod’s career: clutch performances and WS rings.

[84] Sounds good to me.  Yankees managed to knock Penny and Smoltz out of the AL; now it would be nice if they could knock Pedro out of the majors.  Also nice to hear how Yankees “ruined” the World Series by taking all of the drama out of it early.

“And yet, 23 writers did not vote for him.”

On the first ballot?  Ok, so they were no-first-ballot-voters or bigots.

[89]  Is it a righty hitter who has the ability to flare a ball into LF?  B/c instead of 2nd and 3rd one out, you then have two runs in, runner on 2nd (or 3rd).  I don’t think it’s a good risk; and any manager who tried that and failed would be unlikely to *ever* have a job in the majors again.

Andy pitching. Facing Pedro. It kind of all makes sense.

(Also, Pettitte vs. Pedro? Suck it, Lincecum and Felix.)

especially if those achievements negate the two perceived voids in A-Rod’s career: clutch performances and WS rings.

And/or if those achievements came after his (proven) steriod use.  If nothing else, that could give some people an *excuse* to vote for him, while still (pretending to) staying on the high road for steriod users.

[95] Yeah, that was my point.  As you said, there was no argument against Mays.  But 23 people managed to concoct one.  There was no argument against Tom Seaver, but 5 people managed to concoct one.  In the latter case it’s probably safe to assume that this was the no first ballot voter limit as of 1992.

[98] Absolutely, good point.