Sounds like Melky is out for the rest of the series. Too bad, he was putting together some pretty good ABs. Hope Gardner can come in and be productive.

Yeah, kind of sucks about Melky, although it’s probably a slight defensive upgrade in CF to have Gardner in there.

And he has a better backhand than Melky.

Red Sox: 0.00%
Don’t count your chickens before they…

Cano, Gardner, Molina, and Burnett all in a lineup vs. Cliff Lee. I thought we weren’t supposed to punt World Series games?

Throw Tex in there as well.

I agree it sucks about Melky, but the drop-off to his replacement is small, whereas with anyone else in the starting lineup it would be notsmall. 

(I’m not counting Cano here.  I mean, Hairston could have sucked almost as much as Cano has, but Cano’s breaking out tonight against Cliff Lee.)

Point is, it’s the worst player in the starting lineup, and the best player on our bench.

And now Hairston can pinch-run for A-Rod.

And I’m spent

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hairston starting in center field tomorrow night.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hairston starting in center field tomorrow night.

I was just going to post the same thing.

I feel like the team is climbing Everest (and thus me vicariously) and is so close to the peak they can see it, but last time they were close Kevin Brown died from lack of oxygen to the brain and they had to carry his corpse down and werent able to summit.

It’s time to summit, motherfarnsers!

[9-10]  You mean, just to have Gardner available to pinch run?  Or because Lee’s a lefty?  I wonder how the numbers would play out, but, totally POOMA, I’d say Gardner to Hairston is a larger drop-off than Melky to Gardner, just based on defense.  Of course, Hairston’s played so little CF in his career (around 120 games, looks like) that the numbers are almost meaningless.

The Phillie Phanatic looms.

Watched a replay of the 9th. What a great steal.

Anyways,
what the heck is the deal with Posada’s base running? dude seems like he doesn’t gibe a rip half the time on the base paths. That out it was like he was worried he’d make the 3rd out before arod scored so he just stopped running.

Posada figured a three run lead was enough for Mo.  Didn’t want him to overexert himself warming up.

[14] The play went quick, but off the bat I thought “double”.  Good play by the LF.  Once Posada was definitely out, I think he was right to slow up.  As baserunning mistakes go, that one - while a mistake - was understandable.  Good play by the OF.

Actually a worse baserunning mistake was made by Melky and he got away with it.  The play were he scored but ran through Thompson’s stop-sign.  McCarver tried to make it that Melky chose the right play, but a good throw and he’s out.  It is NEVER the right play to ignore the 3B coach.

That out it was like he was worried he’d make the 3rd out before arod scored so he just stopped running.

Yes, and that’s what they teach you to do starting in middle school.  If he stops at first, there might be a play at the plate.  You go to make sure that they cut off the throw and try to get you.  Then you stop to make sure that the run scores before you get tagged out.  Posada has made a lot of baserunning blunders lately, but that wasn’t one of them.

2009 OPS v. L:

Hairston: .741 (128 AB)
Gardner: .781 (55 AB)

I’d start Gardner. I don’t like Hairston’s defense in the OF.

Following up from the previous thread about covering 3rd on that Damon play, I’m not sure who should have had it, but a heads up pitcher would have covered 3rd base - instead of squatting down to watch the throw like Lidge. Catchers are taught to stay at home with a guy on 2nd. Sort of a weird play.

I do think Gardner will get the start.  Hairston “can” play CF, but he’s not a center fielder, and Joe’s not going to want to let Burnett get beat on catchable fly balls.  The only reason to start Hairston is that you’d be more comfortable pinch hitting for him and then bringing in Gardner for defense rather than doing it the other way around.  And that’s not a good enough reason.

[19] Neyer blames Lidge:

Goat: If anyone should have covered third base and dissuaded Damon from advancing—or perhaps even tagged out Damon to end the inning—it was Lidge, who also managed to give up three runs and take the loss.

[19] It’s also a lot to expect a catcher to throw down on a SB and then immediately start hustling to 3B.  Manuel said “pitcher or catcher” when he was asked about it, but it’s really got to be Lidge.  Nobody else has a realistic chance to get there.  Even though he didn’t break for third until it was way too late, Lidge was within about ten feet when Damon got to the bag.

The other way to deal with it is to have Rollins cover second and Feliz break for third, but that kind of defeats the point of the shift (even though Rollins was closer to 2B when the pitch was thrown).

[22] Another way around it would be for Feliz to have the presence of mind to immediately start moving towards 3rd base as soon as he realizes that Damon is safe. Or apply the tag and keep you glove on him. There was a split second there where Feliz had the ball and was treating it just like a stolen base.. Damon was safe and the play was over, so he stopped.

[23] Only Derek Jeter has those kind of instincts…

How is Damon going to 3rd at all relevent to the outcome?  Is he not scoring from second on ARod’s double?

Lidge is a goat, but for his sucky pitching, not his fielding.

[25] I think the popular theory is that Damon being at 3rd made Lidge a little hand shy about throwing a biting slider, as a wild pitch would have allowed the winning run to score. Lidge threw two fastballs to ARod, one of which ended up one hopping the wall. Of course, we can never know what would have happened had Damon not stolen.. etc, etc.

[25] Olney’s take:

Johnny Damon explained after the game that the Yankees had talked for years about the possibility of stealing second and third on one pitch, during those seasons in which the Yankees saw defensive shifts all the time against Jason Giambi. And it was like an harmonic convergence of opportunity in front of him in the ninth inning. There was a defensive shift against Mark Teixeira; the throw to second base went on the first base side of the bag, taking Pedro Feliz toward first base; and Damon is faster than Feliz.

And in the back of Damon’s mind, he said he thought it was important to get to third because it could diminish the likelihood that Lidge would throw his best pitch—the slider down in the dirt. It turned out his was right. Consider Lidge’s pitch selection before and after Damon reached base. Here is his pitch selection by hitter:

Fastballs to Matsui: 2 of 4 (popped up a slider for an out)
Fastballs to Jeter: 2 of 7 (swung and missed thrice, two on sliders)
Fastballs to Damon: 6 of 9 (fouled off all three sliders he saw)
Fastballs to Tex: 1 of 3 (hit him with it)
Fastballs to A-Rod: 2 of 2
Fastballs to Posada: 4 of 5
Total fastballs: 17 of 30 (All three hits allowed in the inning—to Damon, A-Rod and Posada—came on fastballs)

So, to review: Before Damon reached third, Lidge had thrown fastballs on 10 of 21 pitches—and then after Damon reached third, 7 of his next 9 pitches were fastballs.

instead of squatting down to watch the throw like Lidge

He was right to squat down.  Lidge falls off towards 1B after he pitches.  If he immediately starts moving to third, he’s going to get plunk with the throw - or at least confuse the catcher who may put the ball in CF anyway.  However, AFTER the throw as past him, Lidge indeed should have gotten up and started moving towards 3rd.  Even if he was just jogging there, it may have caused Damon to not go.  It wasn’t just Feliz, EVERYONE on the Phillies thought the play was over.

How is Damon going to 3rd at all relevent to the outcome?

The theory is, b/c Damon was at 3rd instead of 2nd, Lidge wasn’t willing to throw his slider in the dirt, and his fastball is easier to hit.  Whether that’s true or not, the REAL reason it is being talked about is because it is a big, visible play that can be dissected.

However, AFTER the throw as past him, Lidge indeed should have gotten up and started moving towards 3rd.

Right, that’s what I meant. I was emphasizing the ‘watch’ part. Squat to avoid the throw, and then get your ass over to 3rd instead of watching the play.

What should be dissected is WTF Manuel lets Lidge pitch to ARod.  Did anyone here think that matchup was ending well for Phillie?

[23] You’re forgetting the throw.  It wasn’t terrible, but Feliz took it in on a bounce in front of the bag and to the first base side.  It’s not like he could have just reached back and slapped a late tag on Damon and held it there.  He almost would have had to dive.

[25] That whole predetermination thing again, eh?  Even if you don’t buy the slider-shy theory, we can’t know that Lidge takes the same approach to the subsequent hitters with Damon on second instead of third.

[23] I think this pegs the mishap: Feliz is the one who was at the bag when Damon slid in.  His moving away from Damon enabled the second steal.  If he keeps the glove on Damon, this doesn’t happen.

Great point from MC on Posada, too…the baserunner sacrifices himself to get the run in.  If that’s what Posada was in fact doing

It would be so, so sweet to get to Lee tonight.

Also, am I the only one who finds it interesting that Olney doesn’t think it’s worth wondering why Lidge went away from the slider when he was ahead in the count to Damon?

I had to watch me mum in the New York Marathon so I listened to the whole game with Sterling and Susan on the way back. Man, radio baseball is like a heart attack waiting to happen, especially with those two on the mic. I was so pumped after Joba’s first two hitters and then boom. Sterling called Damon struck out initially on the foul tip, also. I thought we was cooked. Huzzay!

But, I’d say Joba has earned Girardi’s trust, homer aside. He really looked good.

Does Molino get another start today? Yeesh, what a WOEful bottom of the lineup. Why don’t we just throw Gaudin.

What should be dissected is WTF Manuel lets Lidge pitch to ARod.

It’s not bad enough that Lidge can’t throw his best pitch?  You want to put him in a situation where he has to throw his fastball for strikes and can’t risk coming inside, either?

If he keeps the glove on Damon, this doesn’t happen.

Well, he never got the glove on Damon in the first place.

Why don’t we just throw Gaudin.

Is he a better hitter than Burnett?

[25] That whole predetermination thing again, eh?  Even if you don’t buy the slider-shy theory, we can’t know that Lidge takes the same approach to the subsequent hitters with Damon on second instead of third.

No predetermination.  If Lidge can’t pitch effectively with a man on 3B, that’s on him for being a sucky pitcher.  I don’t think it matters.  He was in deep trouble when he didn’t get Teixeira out.  I don’t think having Damon on 2B instead, would have made one bit of difference.

In fact, Damon on 3B could have been an advantage if it would have made Lidge pitch around ARod.

Also, am I the only one who finds it interesting that Olney doesn’t think it’s worth wondering why Lidge went away from the slider when he was ahead in the count to Damon?

That’s a good point. Looking at Gameday, it may be that Lidge lost his feel for his slider at the point at which he got ahead of Damon.

[26] Bobby Valentine roundly dismissed this point in the postgame. His view is that if your star closer in the world series can’t throw his best pitch when facing the other team’s best hitter, you have a big problem and if you haven’t fixed it by then, you have no excuse.

Something to consider the next time we’re incensed about the whole Posada-Molina-AJ thing. Girardi’s addressing the problem.

I am Jack’s Shit Eating Grin.

[41] I think I liked Bobby Valentine’s interpretation. I would take it further: a situation should not inhibit a pitcher from throwing his best pitch. And by all accounts, Carlos Ruiz is a good defensive catcher.

I believe the slider theory is hogwash. Maybe Lidge was affected by it, but that speaks more about him than the situation itself.

I know it won’t happen, but I wouldn’t have too much of a problem with them going with Gaudin.  It really comes down to the effectiveness differential of pitching Burnett and (if needed) Pettitte on full versus short rest.  Combine that with the crapular bottom of the order in Philly, and it’s even possible that fully-rested Gaudin + Posada > short-rested Burnett + Molina.  Plus, if the Yanks lose tonight, it’s actually good for business.  More take at NYS.

A centaur’s monstrous humanoid levels give it skill points equal to 7 × (2 + Int modifier). Its class skills are Listen, Move Silently, Spot, and Survival, Clutchitude.

[39]  Thanks for clarifying.

[41]  It didn’t sound to me like Bobby V was exactly dismissing that point.  It sounded like he thought it was exactly what happened and he was pissed as hell about it.  Then again, we are talking about a guy who presided over a team that issued a walk-off walk in an LCS clincher, aren’t we?  So I guess I can understand him being a little touchy about pitchers who can’t make pitches in big spots.

Re: wild pitch with Lidge, I agree it’s a red herring.  Despite his 111 baserunners in 58 2/3 IP this year, Lidge only had 4 WPs, his lowest total since 2004.  He pitched with a lot of guys on all year, and it wasn’t a real problem.

This is going to be the longest day ever.

Marte should start tonight, and Gaudin should start in right field.  Bring Gaudin in to pitch to Werth, then go back to Marte to face Ibanez, and back to Gaudin for the bottom of the order.  Pinch hit for both of them in the third inning with Sabathia and Swisher.  Then go to Robertson, etc.

I’m just worried that none of the three will have it on three days rest. I feel ok about Burnett but against Lee he might have zero margin forever. If it gets to Game 6 with Pettitte on short rest I won’t feel all that comfortable. You can bet your cats pajamas that in Game 7 with CC on short rest for the third straight start and all hands on deck for the Phils that anything can and will happen.

[45] LOL!

I’d add “Bash” as a special ability.

It didn’t sound to me like Bobby V was exactly dismissing that point.

He made a point of them shouting about it in the trailer - presumably someone else mentioned it on air, and he certainly was pretty animated about it.

[48] True that.

No, no starting Gaudin.  No.  Burnett >>> Chad Gaudin.  The Yankees have been winning by neutralizing the Phils’ lefties (mostly, but Utley is great).  Burnett’s curveball allows him to do that.  Gaudin has nothing for those lefties.  They’d eat him alive.

I think Jorge should catch, of course.

Rob,
  I suppose I’m thinking more of Game 6 and 7 than Game 5. Burnett on full rest in game 6 is a much more appealing matchup

Also, how hilarious is Jorge’s baserunning. He truly might be the worst baserunner who ever lived. How do you get thrown out by ten feet in that situation?? hahaha. How unfunny would it have been had he been tagged out before the second run scored.

he has figured out Mo, but he’s saving it for when it really matters

Was something like this expressed by Rollins?

“Rob,
I suppose I’m thinking more of Game 6 and 7 than Game 5. Burnett on full rest in game 6 is a much more appealing matchup”

Burnett can throw a stinker on full-rest just as easily as on 3-days rest.

My attitude is don’t think ahead, win tonight.  Lee is not so great that the Yankees should go with anything less than their best chance of winning.

If he stops at first, there might be a play at the plate.  You go to make sure that they cut off the throw and try to get you.  Then you stop to make sure that the run scores before you get tagged out.  Posada has made a lot of baserunning blunders lately, but that wasn’t one of them.

Did it seem to you that Alex was going to get caught at the plate? 

And Po can make sure they cut off the throw without necessarily getting tagged out. That wasn’t a baserunning blunder?

WJ - oh, I get it.  I know what you’re thinking.

Here’s the thing.  If this team had a decent 4th starter, this wouldn’t be an issue.  I like Gaudin, but this is a terrible matchup for him.  Go for the kill.

Jorge’s baserunning: not good.  To be fair, Victorino made a real nice play there.  But with the Yanks up 3, 3 outs to go and Mo warming, whatever.

And Po can make sure they cut off the throw without necessarily getting tagged out. That wasn’t a baserunning blunder?

Can’t answer for MC, but I mentioned this in [16].  I think it *was* a mistake, but not that horrible of one.  When it was off the bat I thought double, and it was a good play by the LF.  Got the ball quickly, fired a good throw to 2nd quickly.  Jorge’s reputation made it seem worse than it was.  If that’s the worse baserunning mistake Posada makes this series (fingers crossed), I’m not going to complain about his mistake.

Yeah, I’m not advocating Gaudin so much as saying that it wouldn’t kill me if he did pitch.  And at this point, it’s all academic anyway: Burnett is starting.

Over/under on AJ’s innings?  I have 6…

Has this been previously discussed?  Are any of you surprised a little that Jeter won the Aaron award again?  I mean if Mauer is the obvious choice for MVP wouldn’t he also be the odds on for this award?  I’m happy about it, but a little surprised.  Incidently, the WBC was played in 06 and Jeter wins the Aaron, and the same thing again this year.  Kind of interesting that his two best recent seasons started with early preparation and early competitive play.

I don’t really get the point of the Aaron award.  It’s just hitting, right?  Defense not included.  Odd.  Anyway, you’d think it would be a big bopper’s award (Pujols makes sense).  Jeter winning makes little sense.  Fan voting, whaddyagonnado?

If that’s the worse baserunning mistake Posada makes this series (fingers crossed)

Posada don’t really need a challenge in this department.

Jorge’s reputation made it seem worse than it was.

Exactly.  The ball was in the gap and Ibanez was almost on the warning track when he picked it up.  You have got to be thinking double when you hit that ball.  And you see that play quite often.  The reason he was out by so much is that he stopped running once he realized that the throw was coming to second, which is the best way to make sure that the runner crosses the plate before you get tagged out.  If Carlos Gomez was that smart, we might not be having this conversation.

Victorino made a real nice play there.

No, Ibanez did.

Over/under on AJ’s innings?  I have 6

I’ll take the over.  But not by much.

6 strong tonight is just fine.  The pen is well-rested.

[45] And Joba found SoulEater +5.

This site seems to be broken.  Where’s the link to the complaint thread?

[71]“This site seems to be broken.  Where’s the link to the complaint thread?”

Actually the BBTF post-game wrap thread is the complaint thread.  Lot’s of people disagreeing with using AJ tonight.

With Melky out and no DH, any chance we see a Matsui, Damon, Swisher outfield?

Oops, Ibanez not Victorino.  Anyway, good throw there.

[73] I thought about that for a minute and dismissed it.  HUGE defensive hit.

This site seems to be broken.  Where’s the link to the complaint thread?

Sorry.

I think if they can, they add Guzman to keep a pinch runner. It wouldn’t seem to make much sense to add another pitcher, Pena or Cervelli.

@40. I thought about this a lot last night. Only thing I can think of is that Lidge was not cool with walking Damon and knew that his slider is most effective when it’s out of the zone (POOMA) so he was trying to get him with the fastball once the count went full.

Ya know, you always hear a-holes in the media and at WasWatching, talking about all the Yankee “headcases” A-Rod, Burnett, Cano etc. but it’s pretty clear to me that Lidge is Headcase Number One. His body language after he hit Teixeira was that of a man who has surrendered. Also, his facial hair is pretty god damned painful to look at.

As for Lidge moving away from the slider—Damon said after the game that he was sitting slider the whole time, which is why he got some good swings on them. I think that Ruiz and Lidge saw the cuts he was getting and guessed correctly that he was sitting slider. Damon is a notorious guess hitter and everyone knows it, and they probably sensed he was trying to hook a slider, so they went to the fastball away. Teix got plunked, and then the Phillies tried to bust A-Rod inside with a fastball. Problem is, Lidge was throwing 92, not 98.

How has IPK been doing in the AFL?

Seriously, though, if you can replace an injured player, it should have to be with someone who plays the same position.

A centaur employing a lance deals double damage when it charges, just as a rider on a mount does.

Nice that with Lidge’s implosion last night, Mo is the only big-name closer in the playoffs who hasn’t cost his team a game yet

Well, yes, compared to 1)not scoring from second on a double in the ALCS and 2)the ridiculous rundown play, Posada’s blunder last night is hardly a blip. Were there any more doozies in this postseason? He did forget the outs but I chalk that up more to all the shots to head.

By the way, I say this all out of love. Posada is my favorite Yankee and he’s had a ton of big hits this postseason, even if his stat line is nothing too special.  Go ahead home run off Pavano in the clinching ALDS game three (and a RBI single to help ice it in the ninth of Nathan), game tying home run of Madsen in the eigth inning of Game 3 of the ALCS (do big hits in losses still count?), huge insurance run in the eighth inning of the World Series game 2 and another big hit in Game 3, and last night’s dagger.

IPK, AZFL: 15.1 IP, 14 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 0 HR, 8 R, 7 ER.

A centaur employing a lance deals double damage when it charges, just as a rider on a mount does.

that +8 strength is sexy, but a +2 level adjustment on top of the four monster hit dice makes the cost steep.

Imagine a giant 3rd baseman with unlimited strength, a massive inferiority complex and a real short temper.  He’s tear-assing around Manhattan in a brand new Centaur suit…

AFL stats are meaningless according to Keef Law.

so he was trying to get him with the fastball once the count went full

Except he went away from the slider after Damon barely fouled off the first 1-2 pitch.  Going to the fastball away if you think he’s sitting slider in makes sense, but five in a row?

Why not start Guadin to bean Utley or Werth and get ejected.

[85] +3 natural AC is pretty nice too.

[86] Haven’t seen MIB in quite sometime.  Great, esoteric reference.

Nice that with Lidge’s implosion last night, Mo is the only <strike>big-name</strike> closer in the playoffs who hasn’t cost his team a game yet

Every other closer has lost a game.

1. Nathan.
2. Papelbon.
3. Fuentes.
4. Franklin.
5. Street.
6. Broxton.
7. Lidge.

Add in the fact that Mo has had more opportunities to blow one than any of these guys.

[92] Ok, technically not lost (Nathan), but cost his team a game.

[92] That’s quite a list.

[64] I think the Aaron award is supposed to make it OK for pitchers to win the MVP.  The argument (and a correct one, IMHO), is that the Cy Young is basically the MVP for pitchers, so the MVP should only go to hitters.  Now there is an award for each, so anyone can (should) win the MVP.  Of course, the reason reason behind the award is Selig is pandering to anyone and everyone he can in order to score points for honoring the game and what-not.

I think Jeter is winning it b/c everyone knows he isn’t winning the MVP.  After Mauer, the difference between Jeter and everyone else (using something like Base Runs anyway) is very little.  So Mauer gets the MVP, Jeter gets the Hank Aaron.

why is damon getting credit for fastballs thrown to Posada?  Damon scores on Arod’s hit whether he’s on second or third.

I had the impression the Aaron award was in large part for off-the-field contributions.

[87] Yeah, I think he (Law) looks at it more as a scouting ability.  Look at FB velocity, how hitters are handling certain pitches, etc.  For example, Colin Curtis currently has an OPS of 1.087.  I like Curtis.  I think he has a future as a big leaguer.  But I’d be perfectly happy if he put up an OPS of .700 as a 5th OF.

I think the positives to look at though are 14.1 IP (so he’s healthy and getting innings), 17K’s, and 1BB.  He’s pitching, and he seems to have control.  If IPK has good control and keeps his walks down, he’s a #3/#4/ starter.  If he doesn’t, he’s AAAA or in the bullpen.

[97] No, that’s the Clemente award.  Which Jeter also won.

Basically when his career is done he’ll have won everything *except* the MVP and the Cy Young.  And some will use that as an excuse not to vote for him on their HOF ballot.

[81]—nice try at jinxing Mo but you’re not fooling me; you’re really Joe Buck in disguise, right?