Yeah, if Blanton starts game 4 CC is now obvious for game 4.  You get the big advantage in the matchup, AND you get CC back in game 7 if necessary.  You have until right before the game on Monday then to decide if AJ is pitching;  which is best because he should have a pretty good idea if he feels “off” or not day of game.

[99] I was maybe stupidly paranoidly imagining he would throw a bullpen inside in secret if at all.

[96] “What are the hitters going to catch on to?”

The tuning to see/hit the cutter.  I assume that if every starter threw a pretty good cutter as his main pitch, Mo would be much less effective.  E.g. if Mo were a starter (something I’ve argued for) he would need to throw much less than 90+% cutters.

“You have until right before the game on Monday”

I thought this didn’t work because of having a throw day, as discussed in parallel.

[84] Young guy, small lefty, signed out of Mexico, average to above average stuff, nothing mind blowing. But he has good control and command at a young age and advanced secondary stuff. It helps that he’s only l8.

[84] You may have heard of him as “Man-Ban”.

[94] & [102] I don’t know if I buy the over exposure argument. Rivera has thrown a lot of postseason innings and none of the teams he’s faced (save maybe the Red Sox) seemed to catch up. In this postseason alone, he pitched in all three games against the Twins, didn’t have a bad outing. He pitched 5 out of 6 games against the Angels and gave up a grand total of one run (in 7 IP total). The only question I have regarding Mo is overuse. If he can keep himself in top shape for the next 5 games, I wouldn’t worry too much about the Phillies figuring him out.

Actually, what I said in [91] obviously isn’t realistic, for a multitude of reasons as have been pointed out. But what I wanted to point out is Rivera is such a weapon. He could take on an entire bullpen if the starters are regularly pitching into the seventh.

Cameron pointed out the other day that the drawn out schedule has turned out to be a massive advantage for the Yankees, because they have been able to get about 80 percent of the IP from their 4 best pitchers (CC, AJ, Battle Cat and Mo). The reason why that works is that Mo is quantitatively equal to about 3 best relief pitchers the other teams can throw at you while being qualitatively superior to all of them.

[103] I don’t know; do they not do a throw day if they are pitching on 3-days rest?  Have the throw day earlier?  Have it regular day and shorten it?  I guess the question is if you get him ready to pitch Monday, and he’s not ready (tired arm, whatever), would it be better to pitch him or skip him until Wednesday?  80% AJ > 100% Gaudin, but might not beat Lee anyway.  100% AJ will beat Pedro, and if you are up 3-1 in the series I think it is worth taking that risk.  If Burnett wakes up and is 90% though I say give him the ball.

If ~every batter sees the cutter ~every day, would some of them start to catch on?

Mo’s been closing for over a decade and few have caught on.  There are players that have seen him plenty of times and have yet to make much of their ABs.
In a 7 game series I doubt a couple players seeing him in one AB translates to much of an advantage later in the series.  Is Carlos Ruiz suddenly going to pose a problem in Game 5 because he saw Mo for one AB in Game 2?
I’m sure they will be (or feel) more prepared but whether that gives them an advantage is highly unlikely.

On Mo, I think Girardi would like nothing more than to *not* use him tomorrow, or at most use him an inning.  So the idea is Andy goes 7IP/2ER, and Yankee offense scores at least 7.  Then the non-Mo bullpen can hopefully get through 2 innings and let up 3 or less runs.  After that Mo can go 3 or 4 innings (depending on pitch-count) Sunday and Monday, and with day off at least an inning Wednesday.

I was maybe stupidly paranoidly imagining he would throw a bullpen inside in secret if at all.

And I was just naively imagining that maybe he tried to throw today and couldn’t get loose or something.

Mo is quantitatively equal to about 3 best relief pitchers the other teams can throw at you while being qualitatively superior to all of them

The qualitative goes without saying.  The quantitative is mostly on other managers for not at least trying to get more innings from their best relievers.  IOW, we don’t know that Rivera is unique in being able to give more and/or longer outings without losing effectiveness.  We do know that he’s starting from a higher level and so can afford a slight loss of effectiveness more than his peers could.

[106] I don’t think it’s likely, or likely to be measurable or to matter, and anyway he can’t throw two innings every game for a whole series anyway.

Seems like he has been allowing a few more baserunners than normal - or is that just due to facing good offenses?  Hmm, baseball reference has that as my imagination.  I did see one cutter at 89 on Fox’s gun - is his velocity down a bit?

With 3 consecutive days of games he won’t be throwing 2 innings more then once, if that much.  Of course if our offense can wake up from its slumber or our set up guys can step up it won’t be a problem.

“There are players that have seen him plenty of times and have yet to make much of their ABs.”

I’ve already over-belabored this but while seeing Rivera one AB/mo is probably some preparation in terms of approach (i.e., learning a little what might work given one’s normal calibration), I’d be very surprised to learn that any neurons get gradually tuned to hit the cutter on that time-scale.  Seeing him every day might be different.

I’m liking Hamels and Blanton in the next two, and Lee just isn’t Randy Johnson and at some point the Yankees should realize that.

Also, Jonathan (and his wife) might be sensitive to terms like “overexposed cutter”.

The quantitative is mostly on other managers for not at least trying to get more innings from their best relievers.

I think one of the best things about Torre was how he recognized what he had in Rivera, and used him during the 1996-2001 period.

Then somehow, the Jeff Weaver/Alex Gonzalez thing in 2003 happened. And then, the Tom Gordon against Red Sox in 2004, and Torre brought in Rivera until a 2 run lead in the eighth shrank to 1 run with runners on first and third with no out.

It is refreshing to see Girardi going back to this usage of Rivera. Which may also explain why he is using pretty much every single other pitcher in the bullpen as strictly match-up guys, even though they are capable of more.

I’m surprised that Lee pitches after Blanton.  But if Lee’s only getting one more start, I might consider another starter against Lee lo let AJ pitch at home again againt Pedro and then, if necessary, choose between Andy and CC for a game 7.

I am concerned about Andy on three days rest, and UI don’t think anyone here will tell me, “It’s OK, they can bring in Gaudin or Aceves,” and you don’t want to burn the pen in game 6 and then come back the next day.

Seems like he has been allowing a few more baserunners than normal - or is that just due to facing good offenses?  Hmm, baseball reference has that as my imagination.  I did see one cutter at 89 on Fox’s gun - is his velocity down a bit?

Re: Mo’s velocity, it’s been down all year.  Last year, his average 4-seamer was at 93.1, this year it’s at 91.8.  Last year’s cutter was at an average of 92.8, this year it’s at 91.3.

He’s been able to maintain almost all of his effectiveness obviously, but his LD% allowed is up by about 7.3% from last year, and his his HR/FB this season was 15.2% compared to 6.6% career. 

He walked 11 unintentionally this year after walking six last year, which I think is at least partially due to him probably needing to be a little more precise with his location to compensate for slightly diminished velocity.

He’s still great, but he’s probably just a tick less great than he has been.  Will Carroll posited that Rivera typically makes a concerted effort to throw at slightly less than 100% in the postseason since he knows he’ll be relied on more frequently, but I have no idea if he has data to back that up or if it’s pure conjecture.

As advantageous as it would if Mo doesn’t have to pitch in Game 3, there would also be a major benefit if he doesn’t even have to warm up. So the burden is really on the offense and whatever relievers are used (assuming Pettitte pitches well) to provide a sufficiently comfortable lead to achieve that outcome.

[118]: “I am concerned about Andy on three days rest, and UI don’t think anyone here will tell me, “It’s OK, they can bring in Gaudin or Aceves,” and you don’t want to burn the pen in game 6 and then come back the next day. “

It’s okay.  They can bring in Gaudin or Aceves.  Better that than to let the fear of pitching AP on 3 days’ rest force you to give a START to Gaudin or Aceves. 

I’m also not worried about burning the BP in game 6.  Game 6 is an elimination game for somebody.  I’ll takes my chances that CC will get lit up early in game 7.  I’m not going to hold anything back in game 6 on account of that possibility.

in this case it would have been pretty simple because all of the players continued the play as if it had been a trap.  It would have gotten dicey if, for example, Posada had realized what the umps called sooner and tried to get back to first, or if Howard had realized it, but not right away.  It would have been a total cluster#### if he’d stopped in the middle of his throwing motion and gone to tag first, but Damon had gotten there ahead of him.

So one of the few times that Posada stumbles onto doing the right thing, he’s still screwed.

I guess I’m still wondering if the 1st base coach saw the trap and gave indication for Posada to keep running. The coach probably had a good angle as the play was happening in front of him.

And those Mo appearances have been the tight tight spots. Mo is freakin amazing.

I really can’t fathom the idea that the Yanks would basically give the Phillies a win by pitching Gaudin vs. Lee in Philly. Unless Aj says he can’t pitch on 3 days, I think he needs to. If they are up 3-1, end it. If its 2-2 or 1-3, then he absolutely HAS to, as you don’t want to fall into that hole/be eliminated.

And yes, I know nothing is an automatic win, but that pitching matchup in that park with that lineup sure seems to be pretty darn close.

Aceves, unlike Gaudin, doesn’t appear especially vulnerable against lefties (they actually slug 50 point lower against him over his career)....I’d be a little tempted to start Gaudin, go to Coke for Utley and Howard the second time through the order, then Aceves, finish as necessary.  We’ve got two loogies and Mo.

But that’s cause I like screwing around. 

Andy is pretty decent historically on 3 days rest; and Burnett has been decent this year with 3 days.  It’s only one more start for each guy.  I think it’s the best option.

AJ Burnett is a perfect 4-0 in four career starts on three days rest, with a 2.33 ERA, a 1.074 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts in 27 IP.  Andy Pettitte has been a mixed bag on short rest, and hasn’t tried it since 2006.  Cliff lee has never started a major league game on three days rest.

“Cliff lee has never started a major league game on three days rest.”

I was just wondering why teams expecting to have a good chance of making the postseason don’t try to test their top-of-the-rotation guys on three days rest during the season, say around the all-star break and perhaps a few times more, ideally against a division rival.

Blanton has to be the most favorable matchup this team sees all postseason.  I would wager that every Twins and Angels starter the Yankees faced this postseason has better stuff.
I can’t understand Manuel limiting Lee to just two WS starts, unless Lee told him he really doesn’t think he can pitch effectively on 3 days rest.

[129] Which means, of course, that the Yanks bats will still not show up.

I am pretty sure Joe will go Andy, CC, Gaudin, Aj, CC, but I really hope he doesn’t. Wouldn’t you rather win or lose this series with your best pitchers going the most amount of times, vs. starting a guy who has pitched 2 innings since Sept. 28th and generally stinks vs. lefties?

I would think that having pitched with extra rest between most of their starts since September could make it easier for AJ and perhaps Pettitte to pitch on three days rest, if necessary.

Blanton has to be the most favorable matchup this team sees all postseason.  I would wager that every Twins and Angels starter the Yankees faced this postseason has better stuff.

So he’d only toss a CG two hitter?

How does the weather look for this weekend?  I’m seeing 70% chance of rain tomorrow night, not necessarily around game time though.

I mean, we’re all pretty certain that Girardi won’t over think this and pitch Gaudin game 4, right? I know he has said he won’t announce the game 4 starter until after game 3, but that would be a colossally and epically bad decision, to go with Guadin in game 4, right?

So apparently there was a guy actually named Cy Blanton.  That surprised me.

If only I knew that beforehand.  Cy Blanton’s career high era+ was 159, according to baseball reference.  so I guess the yankees are screwed.

Gaudin: maybe if he gets a start, he outperforms his expectation.  Maybe, also, the hitters in Philly start to look like many of the NY hitters have looked much of the post-season (other than Jeter & A-Rod).

Maybe… that’s what I am hanging my hat on.

BTW, A-Rod hit .313 on the road this year, as opposed to .260 at home.  That may even be more pronounced in the post-season, but I haven’t looked closely at it.

Pettitte got extra rest because he was injured. I don’t think you can throw him on 3 days rest.

Mo’s command, while still great, is not Mo-like. Walking Jimmy Rollins and needing 40 pitches to get through 2? Definitely getting older.

Pettitte got extra rest because he was injured. I don’t think you can throw him on 3 days rest.

Not entirely. After pitching on 10/3 against TB, he has pitched on 10/11, 10/19, and 10/25, largely as a result of the schedule that the playoffs impose. That has given him additional rest. Whether or not that would enable him to pitch on 3 days rest, given his age and shoulder issues, I don’t know.

Andy may be decent historically on 3 days, but he’s not pitched on three days rest for three years. I’m not saying he should, but I think it’s defensible to avoid pitching Andy on 3 days and to get a better matchup for CC.

I dunno which choice is more a matter of managing “afraid to lose.”

To me, it’s an easy choice because Gaudin cannot realistically be expected to pitch to an ERA better than 4.50.  Even that might be optimistic given the strength of the lefty bats he’ll be facing, the pressure involved in this start, and the fact that he has made a start in about 5 weeks or so.  I realize Andy hasn’t pitched on 3 days’ rest for several years, but even if 3 days’ rest subtracts from his effectiveness to some degree, there’s no question in my mind he can still do better on short rest than Gaudin is likely to do under the circumstances.

“. . . HASN’T made a start in about 5 weeks or so.”

there’s no question in my mind he can still do better on short rest than Gaudin is likely to do under the circumstances.

I don’t know… Gaudin has been very aggressive, not bat-shy at all.  OTOH, like you said, its been a looong time since he started a game.

Just remembered a little nugget from last night.  Sterling actually tried, with no sense of irony, to “predict baseball”, and of course he failed miserably (which he should have known would happen, right?).  In the middle innings, Pedro was around 50+ pitches and Sterling said that Pedro would “undoutedly” get above 60 pitches by the end of the inning.  Of course, Pedro then got two quick outs and the inning was over before he hit 60.

I wish I could drop an anvil on his head, a la the Roadrunner.

I’ve never understood why MiLB prospects are ranked this way, or at least why these rankings mean so much.  The fact that a player is an organization’s #5 prospect doesn’t really tell us how good a prospect he is. You’d have to first figure out how good #4 and #6 are.  One team’s #5 might run circles around another team’s #5.

Bill Smith wishes he knew this when he traded Johan to the Mets.

Hey lads. YouTube/curb best of leon. enjoy.
Is anyone else going to the jets/mammals game sunday?

[115] WOE will demand satisfaction.

Pistols, sabres, or swords?

Have your seconds ready for sunup.

The Phillie Phanatic looms.

[145] “I brings the ruckus to the ladies.”

[148] “Spread that ass, Larry.”

[146] Donno, are you rereading Burr?

[150] Did you see that Hornblower ref. in a recent comment of mine?

[151] Reference, please ? I’m re-reading my way through CSF right now. Don’t make me search for it. I’ve got 4 glasses of Shiraz aboard already.

Yes I did Herr Rilke.
I must confess, sometimes it takes me a couple of minutes to figure out WTF you’re posting about.
I take back the chess match challenge. Nice links on that too, last week.
Frog… I’m sorry.

The Phillie <strike>Phanatic</strike> Frenetic looms.

Charlie Kelly’d.

[152] Pin, Shiraz? Really? Land of the noir and you’re going with mrs. otf wine?

Nerds.

Or geeks.  Or blog comm’nters.

[154] I just watched that one tonight. Dee and Chase> Alex and Kate?

Thurm, it’s called Trader Joe’s, and they get $36 for a case of it.

By the way, there’s no sales tax here. On anything. Nyah !

I’m only recently re-employed.

But I’m happily well stocked with Erath Pinot Noir and Argyle “sparkling wine”.

And it’s 5 glasses now.

[156] Dude with no cable.

otf, I am watching last sunday’s Curb right now. “Don’t Say Nothing Bad About My Baby.”

Teddy, check your messages. I think I just left you my phone #.

[152] The incident at the start of HH’s career where he engages in an intentionally semisuicidal duel.

[160] I guess that flowmaxx stuff really works. Tell maureen to be careful.
Thurm the katt needs a new scratching post.
Yay new job Pin!!!!! I hope it’s an upgrade.
Trader Joe’s can sell no wine here in puritanville. Ct.

[156] Dude with no cable.

I’ve been liking shiraz lately, the Koonunga shiraz/cab is cheap and good.  I’d drink just pinot noir if I knew stuff that was consistently good that worked in my budget.

<strike>Dee</strike> Mac and Chase > Alex and Kate

Fixed.

Ahh. bedtime in new england. Visions of yankee doodle andy kicking ass.
See yiz.

Pin, I was just about to do the same but I had to correct thurm’s Sunny math equation . Checking now…

[162] Know it well. Where’d you reference it ? Was it in the complaint thread ?

I’m just starting the Hotspur (again). I find it enjoyable to re-read before bed. I can enjoy the language and the story without worrying about the suspense since I’ve already read it.

Too close to Mac and Cheese.

[163] It is, and not just because I was on the beach for the whole summer. I’m totally digging it. Thanks for the well wishes, and thank jebus I had this board through it all.

[163-5] The Charles Shaw $2.99/btl stuff is just fine if you consider it “table wine” and manage expectations accordingly. I have a few bottles of ~10 year old Marlstone meritage that we keep for special occasions. May break one open next week if…you know.

I tried a box wine in the depths of my cheapitude and totally regret it.

[169] Bottom of this thread, referring to stuff above.

I’ve been slowly reading Aubrey/Maturin for a while (maybe one a year this decade) and recently started on HH, which I apparently can read more of more quickly without getting oversaturated.

[170] In that case,

Dee and Ryan > Alex and Kate

or

Green Man and Phillie Frenetic > Hank and Hal

“The Charles Shaw $2.99/btl”

Had a couple of bottles of the cab (?) maybe five years ago that were pretty good, then tried a few that were barely fit to pour down the drain.  No luck at all with the merlot and cab sauv.

I don’t have a special thing about French wines but when I lived there uhh 15-12 years ago I could go to the local minimart and for like $6 get a bottle of something that was perfectly consistent and totally unobjectionable by my standards and really tasty.  On the other hand I read the Yankees boxscores a day late in the IHT.

[172] OK, that’s scary, because I’m also in the middle of re-re-re-re-reading The Mauritius Command.

And yes, POB takes a bit more frontal lobe. CSF was definately more interested in the storyline and flow, whereas POB was…obsessed…with the richness of the language and the word picture. The depth of introspection he gifts upon his characters far outstrips CSF, and sometimes, late at night, the reader.

were pretty good, then tried a few that were barely fit to pour down the drain

That’s why you only invest $36 for the case. If you get lucky, WOOT ! Otherwise, you’ve only lost a few Andy’s. I believe the Trader Joe labels are from different wineries from year to year, and I expect variation. Ditto for the Shaw. That’s part of the fun of cheap wines. You just may stumble on a good wine cheap, but not be able to repeat it.

[175] Of the first 8, I thought _Post Captain_ was far and away the best - Jane Austen good in spots.  Don’t know if I’ll live long enough to rereread the others.  I’ll probably reread _Farewell My Lovely_ another half-dozen times at least, meteorite impacts aside.  I’ve started to wonder if O’Brian wants to make the reader suffer along with his characters - _must_ Jack get mixed up with Miss Smith?  But of course next year we have to play the RS a zillion times, and the year after that, and ...  I should get some dvds of the ‘98 season, just some nice smooth sailing.

Klapisch’s entire column isn’t quite as bad as his closing sentence, but I still find it objectionable:

The Series is about to become even more difficult, and if A-Rod wants the world to believe he hasn’t been freaked out by the biggest stage of his life, now would be a good time to start.

[176] Well, at least you know you’ve outlived POB. So you have the chance of catching up with him.

I feel, oftimes, like Aubrey, my enjoyment outpaces my comprehension in many areas.

FWIW I’m screening “Babette’s Feast” tonite, to remind myself that “films”, foreign included, can be every bit as entertaining as the works of Stone and Parker.

[177] Is that called “overthinking the thought” ?

[179] At this point, I think it’s a smear.

“if A-Rod wants the world to believe”

This is “L’etat, c’est moi”, journalism style.