BP agrees with you: NYY 53.9368%, PHI 46.0632%.

The real questions is: what are the odds if Girardi decides to start Gaudin in game 4 or 5? That has to tip the scales to at least even no? God, please Joe, do not let him start a game.

[2] you didn’t get the meme that Girardi is GENIUS?

Yanks just need to win tomorrow.  They definitely have the pitching matchup in their favor.  Winning one of the games in Philly means Yanks can’t be eliminated on the road.  Huge game…I think it’s the one ARod breaks out (for the WS) in as well.

“The real questions is: what are the odds if Girardi decides to start Gaudin in game 4 or 5? That has to tip the scales to at least even no? God, please Joe, do not let him start a game.”

He just can’t.  Not against those lefties.  He either has to start Joba in Game 4, or go with everyone on three days rest.

Can we win the World Series and still replace Girardi for next year?

[2 & 3]  I was just going to mention this; if Yankees win tomorrow, and Manuel announces Lee for game 4 and Blanton for game 5, it makes some sense to start Gaudin in game 4; especially if they aren’t comfortable starting Burnett on 3-days rest and would need to start him in game 5 anyway.  Basically, if Gaudin pitches well enough to win, you have a bonus.  Because CC vs. Blanton is a HUGE advantage for the Yankees.

Probably play it safe and go CC in game 4 regardless, and throw the dice on Burnett for game 5.  But from a Game Theory perspective, it would be interesting.  SG, if he were to get bored, could probably run some sims on it.

Can we win the World Series and still replace Girardi for next year?

Sigh.

Hamels has not been particularly good this postseason.

I think it’s the one ARod breaks out (for the WS) in as well.

I’m thinking a lot of guys are due for a serious breakout.  This lineup is way too good to continue along their current path.  A lot of these at-bats the past few weeks have been cringeworthy.

Because CC vs. Blanton is a HUGE advantage for the Yankees.

But then you lose CC for a possible Game 7.  Lots to weigh there.

I really hope they don’t go all WOE on us against Hamels.  As good as Hamels is, he has been struggling all postseason (much of the regular season, really).  If he dominates the Yankees tomorrow, it may be too much to take.
The Yankees have too good an offense.  At some point they need to go haywire on some Philly pitcher, no matter who it is.

It just can’t be Gaudin.  Lefties kill him and Phillie’s got great LHB.

Start Joba, start Aceves, start Hughes, anybody but Gaudin.

Hamesl has not ben particularly good this season.

Although it does look like a BABIP issue.

Another question is how will Girardi use Rivera with three games in three days. If the Yankees have a one run lead in Game 3 going into the 8th, does he use Rivera for a six out save and then not use him in Game 4, or does he restrict him to a three out save?

[10] Do you? Wouldn’t he be able to go on 3 days rest for a Game 7?

[12] Does it? It looks like a HR issue. 6 in 14.2 IP. Oof.

[13] I think it’s worth using him for two innings in Game 3 if the Yankees are up by one or two runs.  Being up 2-1 in the series is worth the opportunity cost of not having Mo for Game 4.

[13] I think you have to go for the throat there.  If you think Rivera is your best chance at getting six outs in a one run game - you have to do it.  You worry about game 4 once you get there.

I was talking about 2009 as a whole. ERA way up, FIP not, all the periphs look good.  BABIP up, but LD% not. 

Postseason, not so good.  I’m hoping they take him out early.

And Game 7 would be on 2 days rest for a game 5 starter.

“And Game 7 would be on 2 days rest for a game 5 starter.”

Start Pettitte in game 7 with CC as first man out of the pen.  He can certainly give you 3-4 IP on 2 days rest.  It would be a throw day anyway.

Hopefully you get Pettitte for 6 IP, CC for 2 and Mo for 1.

I’m a little surprised by these odds.  Philly has HFA now and also had the best road record in MLB this year.  I’d have expected them to come out slightly ahead.

[10] Do you? Wouldn’t he be able to go on 3 days rest for a Game 7?

If CC starts Game 5 instead of Game 4, he would only have two days rest before Game 7.

But then you lose CC for a possible Game 7.  Lots to weigh there.

Oh yeah, I agree.  Again, I think it comes down to if he (being Girardi) doesn’t feel comfortable pitching AJ and Andy on 3 days rest.  If Gaudin is going to pitch anyway, does it make sense to have two equally matched games, or likely sacrifice game 4 for a greater chance of winning game 5, and going home up 3-2?  We discussed stuff like this during the regular season, e.g. when Halliday was pitching and our better starter was going the next day. 

I think we’re probably going to see AJ and Andy on short rest, and I think that is likely the right move.  But there’s certainly some risk there as well.

Tons of faith in Battle Cat tomrrow. Also for some reason I expec WOE to get 5 or 6. You know jeter is going to do some damage vs the lefty.

Well, if Manuel decides to go with Lee in game 4, then he’s also going with Lee in game 7.  So punting the game 4 matchup means conceding the SP advantage in the final game if it goes that far.

[22] Its an interesting question. You have to think Lee won’t be as good as he was in game 1, simply because its unlikely for a pitcher to ever be that good period. Plus, its in Philly’s disgrace of a ballpark, plus it might be on three days rest. All of these are sort of possible reasons to think a CC-Lee matchup could swing the Yanks way.

I’d rather CC go on three days rest and get two more starts no matter the matchup. He should be good enough to beat anyone.

You know jeter is going to do some damage vs the lefty.

I think Swisher will probably start, and be curious what he does.  If he breaks out and has 3-4 hits, what’s the story?  Joe was stupid for sitting him yesterday since that could have been the day he broke out?  Or it was a genius pyschological move b/c Swisher was embarassed and refocused?

[18] I just noticed.. you sort of quoted me and changed my quote. ‘Postseason’ became ‘season.’

[21] Ahh.. I thought you were talking about Game 4. Sometimes I just read the last few comments and not all of them.. oops.

So punting the game 4 matchup means conceding the SP advantage in the final game if it goes that far.

Yes, but in this case Yanks would have Pettitte, the battlest of Battle Cats!  And of course the idea now is you have AJ against Pedro in NYS in game 6 to close it out, which has got to be advantage Yankees.

If anything I’m advocating CC in game 4 and go from there.  Even if you have to pitch Gaudin in game 5 you hope to win that one (closing out the series) or game 6 w/ Burnett, and then you have Pettitte in relief in games 5 and 7 (he can probably throw 2 innings in each).  But I think it is an interesting topic for discussion.

[26] If Swisher hits and the Yankees win, the MSM will be more likely to call him a genius than stupid because on some level the move worked as planned. Hairston got a key hit, and Swisher would have “responded” in a positive way to the benching.

[20] Maybe the fact that Philly has a better record on the road than they do at home actually hurts them in projections now that that they nominally hold HFA.

[20]  I can’t see sacrificing an entire game just to get a better CHANCE of winning a subsequent game.  Especially now that we’ve seen all three Yankees starters provide lights-out performances in the playoffs, the drop-off to Gaudin seems like way too high a price to pay just to give the top three marginally better matchups for their second starts.

[29] I think you HAVE to go CC in game 4. Starting Gaudin in game 4 would be just a terrible terrible move. Either force Charlie to pitch Lee in game 4 on short rest or to pitch a lesser option. Either way, I think I prefer CC on 3 days rest vs Lee on 3 days rest and then go from there.

If Rollins ends up being right, I may have to punch a panda.

The second “[20]” should be [22].

[33] There’s a baby panda at the national zoo. Probably won’t put up too much of a fight.

[31 & 32] I would only do this IF they wouldn’t start Burnett on short-rest.  And that would probably be a decision made Sunday morning then.  E.g. if Burnett says his arm feels tired Sunday morning you may not feel comfortable throwing him on short-rest.

And from the Game Theory standpoint it’s always a chance.  But think of it this way (and I haven’t done the math in a decade so I won’t do exacts)...if you start CC vs. Lee in game 4 and Gaudin vs. Blanton (again, if Burnett can’t start game 5), each game is then 50-50 chance to win.  Gaudin vs. Lee would be a 10% chance to win, CC vs. Blanton would be a 90% chance to win.  So it’s being almost certain you’re up 3-2 going into game 6, vs. a 50% chance you are, but also a 25% chance you’re down 3-2 (with a 25% chance the series is over).

Again, this is ONLY if there is a good reason not to start AJ in game 5.

[36] I think you are also discounting the WOE against Blanton, that has to bring it down to only 60% or so

yeah, I know you are just making up numbers, but 90% is really high.  I would guess 70% at best.  WOE might see Cy Blanton, or they could give Gaudin the Ponson treatment.

From Philly’s POV, if Hamels pitches poorly (again) in game 3, then they really have to go to Lee on short rest for game 4.  No way they’ll want to leave it with Hamels as their only/best option for a game 7.

[30]  Yeah, and I think it would be impossible to ever know for sure which it is.  Unless they start doing brain-scans of players before, during, and after games and can monitor patterns that point to success/failure.  That will probably happen at some point (maybe only at college), but likely not until long after Girardi is gone from managing (for better or worse).

[39] And building on that, if the Yanks are up 2-1, they really shouldn’t basically give the Phillies a win by starting Gaudin in game 4. You go for the jugular there. On the other hand, if the Yanks are down 1-2, I don’t think you can risk going down 1-3. So I really think in the end there is simply no way to argue not starting CC in game 4.

[41] - What if the series is tied at 1.5-1.5 after three games?

[38] Sure, but it might also not be 90% loss if Gaudin is pitching.  Yankee bats + some luck could score 10 off of Lee, and Gaudin could pitch 5 solid.  This is stuff you talk about more in the off-season, but we’ll forget about it by then anyway.  This is also where SG was supposed to have swept in and saved the day* w/odds of winning each case so we could put more exact numbers in.  Blame MGL - his article on bunting the other day got me thinking of this Game Theory stuff.

*Probably not worthwhile for him to do, at least not until after game 3 anyway.  I’m sure SG has other stuff to do, like clean the basement, take out the trash for his Mom, etc.

[42] Than we all blame Selig?

CC will show Lee how it’s done if they both are pitching on 3 days rest.

Just everyone do a rain dance after tomorrow’s game.

Than we all <strike>blame</strike>march on Selig’s home with torches and pitchforks?

Fixed.

[33] watch out for Pandas, striated muscles: much stronger than you’d think.

Also, THT really has Austin Jackson plummeting. He didn’t have the year many were hoping for but still hit .300 with a decent OBP. Yeah the lack of power and great discipline is disappointing and some other guys had really good years, but to drop from 1/2 to 9?

Just everyone do a rain dance after tomorrow’s game.

You think it is better if they both pitch on 4 day’s rest?  While it would get Burnett on regular rest (good), I doubt they’ll keep the off-day, so that still takes CC out of a game 7 and Pettitte would still be short rest game 6.

How about we just score lots-o-runs each game and skip this whole pitching thing?

As far as Top Prospect Alert, I have to question Betances in the top 10, if I had to pick one of Betances or Brackman to slide in at the 10 spot, I probably wouldn’t choose either, but gun to the head I take Brackman, because at least he’s stayed healthy.

Yeah the lack of power and great discipline is disappointing and some other guys had really good years, but to drop from 1/2 to 9?

I was surprised at that as well.  However, it looks like THT is really valueing “potential”, as there are only 3 guys who played above A ball on the list, and two of them (Jackson and McCallister) are on the bottom.  Possible they are ranking based on ceiling rather than likelihood of reaching it.  E.g. Heathcott may have a higher ceiling than Jackson, but given Jackson was the ROY in AAA and is still young, I’d have to think Jackson is more likely to contribute in the big leagues.

[49]  Yeah, why not Garcia then, if we’re taking oft-injured, high-ceiling pitchers?  I’d rate Melancon or even Russo (who projects to at least play in the majors) ahead of Betances right now.

http://yankeefan.blogspot.com/2007/02/looking-ahead-to-2007-robinson-cano.html

I think we know how speculative these prospect reports can be.

[51] Garcia will most likely be gone this offseason.

I think the deal with Jackson is the combination of a ton of strikeouts and no power, and then to top it all off, an impossible to sustain BABIP. None of those things bode well for the majors. Sure, he can turn it all around this season, and he clearly needs another season in AAA, but it definitely hurts his status, especially with some of the younger guys really taking steps forward this season.

gun to the head I take Brackman, because at least he’s stayed healthy.

You mean that he’s stayed relatively healthy during his extended rehab from a major injury that still might keep him from ever reaching the majors?

Anyhow, at least they both got #1 right.  Right?  And you’ve got to hand it to the Yankees’ scouts—they have an unmatched ability to find players named Melky.

[54] So far Betances has had 4(?) minor league seasons, none of which he has stayed healthy. Brackman has had 2, 1 lost to injury and one bad one that he pitched the entire time while recovering from surgery.

Sure, there’s a decent chance his stuff never returns, but I’d take my chances with Brackman over Betances.

I liked both lists first choice. After that, I have a bunch of issues.

I think I’ll make my own.

[58] Unheard of!

Yeah, Fabian, it’s been a while since you did much of anything to earn that lightning bolt. 

This is the headline on Yahoo’s front page (not sports but the main page):

Epic World Series moment denied by umps

More blown calls mar Game 2 and deny fans a matchup to remember, a writer says. Manager: ‘Utley was safe’

With a picture of Utley looking upset after being called out.

Wow, apparently a blown call that results in one out and no runs is more “epic” than one that results in two outs and denies a run.

There’s a baby panda at the national zoo. Probably won’t put up too much of a fight.

Maybe.  But you have to go through a phalanx of huge rats to get him.

As far as Top Prospect Alert, I have to question Betances in the top 10, if I had to pick one of Betances or Brackman to slide in at the 10 spot, I probably wouldn’t choose either, but gun to the head I take Brackman, because at least he’s stayed healthy.

I would question any Top 10 list that had Betances and/or Brackman.  Sure, they ooze potential.  But they also ooze injury and lack of progression.  There has to be someone else to occupy the #10 spot.

Who has abducted Joe Morgan and taken his place?

Steve (Middletown, CT)

Hey Joe, what do you think has changed to make A-Rod a postseason force? Do you think it was just random fluctuation over a small sample size that made previous playoff performances an aberration or has something suddenly clicked for him?

Joe Morgan (11:05 AM)

Part of it is the small sample size before. Remember when he played with Seattle, he did well in the playoffs. When he got to New York, he’s only been in the playoffs a few times. Now, he’s more relaxed and he’s not trying as hard. Before, he was forcing it and trying to make things happen.

Joe is an intelligent man. If only he were asked questions about things that would use his expertise.

It’s even worse than I thought.  Only halfway down the article does Passan even address the blown double play call against the Yankees, which was far more egregious.

Not that it makes things better, but bad calls did go both ways Thursday.

As if the blown call against the Yankees should only be looked at as possibly making up for the blown call against the Yankees. 
That’s some tremendous spin.

As if the blown call against the <strike>Yankees</strike> Utley.

As if the blown call against the Yankees should only be looked at as possibly making up for the blown call against <strike>the Yankees. </strike>  Utley.

Wow, I butchered that twice.

There has to be someone else to occupy the #10 spot.

Since they don’t give any context, it is tough to tell what they are rating on.  Fabian probably knows better who does what.  But I think some sites focus more on ceiling, some on how close they are to the majors, and some combine the two.  Some probably pick some names out of a hat.

I’ve heard Morgan make the case many years ago that postseason stats have a lot to do with SSS and luck.  Part of the reason, I think, is that Morgan himself has some pretty lamentable postseason stats.

[62] Ooze is the new loom.

[64] Later in the article he *does* mention that the two don’t equal out.  Of course, he doesn’t mention which one he thinks was worse.  Personally, I think the Yankees would have broke the game open if it is bases loaded, 1 out, Teix and Arod coming up.  But that’s just me.

Utley’s good enough to get a “the”, Scots-style.

I’ve never understood why MiLB prospects are ranked this way, or at least why these rankings mean so much.  The fact that a player is an organization’s #5 prospect doesn’t really tell us how good a prospect he is. You’d have to first figure out how good #4 and #6 are.  One team’s #5 might run circles around another team’s #5.

I think the bad call that went against the Yanks was more damaging in-game.  I think the blown call against the Phillies was the easier call, and thus more egregiously blown. 

Neither was nearly as bad as the calls in the ALDS and ALCS.

[61] Would Melky have scored on that?  Rollins did catch the throw.  I assumed it would have been Teixeira up with bases loaded and one out.

[74] I though Howard stepped on the bag before he threw to second?  No?

Oh, it’s Jeff Passan, right? Yahoo’s answer to Gene Wojo.

His checklist: Find material to

1. Bash A-Rod.
2. Bash Manny.
3. Try to work in steroids in any story.
4. Bash Yankees.

[75] No.

[74] I though Howard stepped on the bag before he threw to second?  No?

Nopes.

As if the blown call against the Yankees should only be looked at as possibly making up for the blown call against the Yankees.
That’s some tremendous spin.

It’s even better when you think that the supposed “make up” call happened *before* the call that he was actually complaining about. If you think that through, Passan is implying that Gorman knew he was going to make a bad call against the Phillies and intentionally screwed up the Damon liner to set it up.

[74] I though Howard stepped on the bag before he threw to second?  No?

No, he didn’t.

Does anyone know if the Yankees 1st base coach had any comments on the play?

I guess also, after the 1B ump threw up the out sign, Posada was screwed right? I mean, how are those things overturned when the rest of the play is suppose to be a reaction off of the presumed out? Just award the advanced base, if there was a call reversal?

So yeah, bases loaded, one out and Teix coming up is just a wee bit different than the inning being over.

Since they don’t give any context, it is tough to tell what they are rating on.  Fabian probably knows better who does what.  But I think some sites focus more on ceiling, some on how close they are to the majors, and some combine the two.  Some probably pick some names out of a hat.

I think the TPA list is, for the most part, defensible. They seem to be attempting to weight potential and demonstrated ability somewhat equally, I just have never been a big fan of their work because there’s not much in the way of analysis to let readers know how they’re arriving at their conclusions. The THT list seems to be operating off of some bad info.

Manuel announced Blanton to start game 4.

I never heard of the guy who’s #2 on THT list.  Anyone have anything to add?

Molicious from Neyer:

Rivera now has 14 six-out postseason saves. All other closers combined have 11 saves like that since 1996.

So apparently there was a guy actually named Cy Blanton.  That surprised me.

Rain between games 4 and 5 would be sweet

How about since 1997, since Mo wasn’t even the closer in 96?

Can you imagine if they had lost yesterday? Down 0-2 on an offday would be horrible.

I like CC vs. Blanton. If Battle Cat can come through they will be sitting very pretty.

I mean, how are those things overturned when the rest of the play is suppose to be a reaction off of the presumed out? Just award the advanced base, if there was a call reversal?

Since there’s no replay for such calls in MLB, I assume you mean a reversal by the umpires after conferring.  Although that can be a mess sometimes and probably contributes to umpires deciding not to change calls sometimes, in this case it would have been pretty simple because all of the players continued the play as if it had been a trap.  It would have gotten dicey if, for example, Posada had realized what the umps called sooner and tried to get back to first, or if Howard had realized it, but not right away.  It would have been a total cluster#### if he’d stopped in the middle of his throwing motion and gone to tag first, but Damon had gotten there ahead of him.

[86] Who actually played for Philadelphia Phillies? Now that is something.

Rivera has now pitched 12.2 innings this post-season. That is equivalent to having two starts, or more than 1 IP of relief work every game. And given up 1 run in the process.

The man is simply unprecedented in every freaking way.

Yankees could have done with just having a few specialists, 3 starters and Rivera. Maybe 8 pitchers overall. The rest of them are risk insurance, of course, but 8-man pitching staff could probably have been optimal.

[91] I used to think that way about postseason roster construction but what would you use the extra position player slots for?

In the AL park the Yankees aren’t going to be pinch-hitting for any of the regulars and you can only have so many pinch runners.  Maybe like five defensive replacements?  Seems like an extra LOOGY or ROOGY is actually way more valuable.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j899pxgMUvySap5l2PMjjeDfklKgD9BLJMM80

Blanton to start game 4 for the Phillies. Seems to me like you’ve got to go with CC on 3 days against Blanton. Either you’re up 2-1 and going for the jugular in a very winnable game, or down 2-1 and trying to avoid going down 3-1 and having to face Lee with the series on the line.

[91] I hadn’t thought about it before, but doesn’t pitching Mo that much in a seven-game series risk overexposing him?  If ~every batter sees the cutter ~every day, would some of them start to catch on?  It’s been claimed/speculated that the RS have done relatively well against him because they see him so much.

“Blanton to start game 4 for the Phillies.”

Hard to understand, esp. if we win game 3.

The problems with constructing your roster in anticipation of starters always getting into the seventh or eighth and Mo always getting four outs or more are pretty obvious.

But an over-exposed Mo is still a damned good option.  What are the hitters going to catch on to?  They already know what’s coming.  Seems to me that the bigger risk of overusing him is that his command suffers a bit and he leaves a few pitches in the middle of the plate.  The fact that he just never throws fat pitches is what makes him who he is.

Got to roll the dice with CC on 3 days rest twice.  He’s proven he can do it.  Don’t know about Andy however.

[83] Thanks.  When I read the THT list, my thinking is they were going entirely on (perceived) ceiling, and completely ignoring what they’ve done so far.  IMHO, a 22 year old CF who put up decent numbers while playing fine defense in AAA rates higher than an 18 year old draftee who played in a handful of games in the GCL.

I never heard of the guy who’s #2 on THT list.  Anyone have anything to add?

Not much.  I’m familiar with the name only from keeping track of Charleston’s box-scores.  I can tell you he has a good k-rate and a good k/bb rate, and he’s a starter.  I’d also guess by his success that the Yankees will promote him to Tampa next year, and he’s got a shot at coming up to the big-leagues sometime in 2011, but more likely 2012.  IF he stays healthy.

[95] I’d assume it has to be based on how Lee is feeling two days after his gem.  It’s easy to say that they should wait to make an announcement, but I imagine that a guy who’s going to pitch on Sunday would throw a bullpen today, right?

Or it could be based on Rollins’ prediction.  If they’re going to win in five, they want their ace on the mound for the clincher, right?