The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

2009 NLDS Preview: Rockies vs. Phillies

Since I have the numbers I used to look at the Twins, Tigers and Yankees for all the playoff teams, I figured I’d throw them up for anyone who’s curious. First up, the Rockies vs. the Phillies.

Phillies

Lineup Pos PA AVG OBP SLG pwOBA 09wOBA Diff BR Outs dRS
jimmy rollins ss 23 .274 .330 .452 .338 .309 -.029 3 15 3
shane victorino cf 22 .291 .352 .437 .346 .350 .004 3 14 -1
chase utley 2b 22 .299 .393 .519 .395 .394 -.001 4 13 11
ryan howard 1b 21 .280 .376 .567 .399 .391 -.008 4 13 0
raul ibanez lf 21 .294 .362 .513 .375 .378 .003 3 13 -5
jayson werth rf 20 .273 .374 .481 .372 .378 .006 3 13 6
pedro feliz 3b 19 .260 .303 .410 .310 .304 -.006 2 13 10
carlos ruiz c 19 .256 .342 .395 .328 .341 .014 2 12 2
greg dobbs 3b 10 .283 .333 .433 .334 .296 -.037 1 7 -3
matt stairs lf 10 .257 .347 .439 .344 .336 -.008 1 7 2
paul bako c 4 .222 .301 .311 .279 .292 .013 0 3 -1
ben francisco cf 1 .258 .326 .424 .328 .330 .002 0 1 -8
eric bruntlett 2b 1 .231 .307 .313 .282 .207 -.075 0 1 -6
miguel cairo 2b 0 .241 .292 .335 .278 .296 .018 0 0 4
total 193 .279 .352 .467 28 125 1


The Phillies have a solid lineup, with Chase Utley as probably their best all around player. In fact, you can make a case that Utley was the second most valuable player in the NL after Albert Pujols. Although they have a fairly minor platoon split this year (.248/.335/.452 vs. LHP compared to .262/.334/.445 vs. RHP), Ryan Howard is very susceptible to lefties with a career split of (.207/.298/.356 vs. LHP compared to .319/.395/.691 vs. RHP). The Rockies have Franklin Morales, Randy Flores and Alan Embree as lefties in the pen, which may help them when faced with Howard in a high leverage situation.

The Phils' defense is a bit above average overa all, with Utley and Pedro Feliz both amongst the best at their positions in baseball.

On the pitching side, the Phils have only announced the Games 1 and 2 starters, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. They are planning on having Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Pedro Martinez in the pen for Games 1 and 2, so I have no idea who may start games 3 and 4, For now I'll assume it's Blanton and Pedro, with Lee going in Game 5 if necessary.

Pitcher Role IP H HR BB K pRA pERA pFIP 09ERA 09FIP sIP sR
cliff lee SP1 180 189 16 54 126 4.02 3.75 3.87 3.14 3.30 12 5.4
cole hamels SP2 187 179 24 49 169 4.27 4.00 3.84 4.32 3.74 6 2.8
joe blanton SP3 202 210 25 61 140 4.45 4.24 4.29 4.06 4.43 6 3.0
pedro martinez SP4 93 90 12 31 79 4.60 4.36 4.25 3.62 4.12 5 2.6
brad lidge CL 67 64 9 32 79 5.24 4.77 3.94 7.21 5.30 3 1.7
ryan madson SU 84 86 8 27 71 4.30 4.07 3.76 3.26 3.21 3 1.4
brett myers SU 97 84 10 33 97 3.88 3.67 3.60 4.84 6.07 3 1.3
j.a. happ MR 122 114 13 47 100 3.85 3.72 4.09 2.93 4.34 3 1.3
jack taschner MR 48 54 5 21 38 5.46 5.01 4.31 4.91 5.28 2 1.2
chad durbin MR 109 109 16 44 71 5.27 4.87 5.03 4.39 4.94 1 0.6
scott eyre MR 44 42 5 20 40 4.09 3.79 4.07 1.50 4.63 1 0.5
paul byrd LR 134 159 20 31 64 5.41 4.93 4.87 5.82 5.05 0 0.0
Total 45 45 5 15 37 4.35 4.08 4.01 21.7


Obviously, the big question facing the Phillies is the closer role. Brad Lidge has had a brutal season after having a great one. While his projection is reasonable, there may be a physical reason that he was so bad this year that the projections wouldn't pick up. Ryan Madson and Brett Myers should give them the possibility of dealing with an ineffective Lidge, but their bullpen is probably their biggest Achille's heel right now.

Add it all up, and here's how the Phils look overall.

#games 5
home games 3
#outs 125
offense 27.6
pitching 21.7
defense 0.8
wpct .634
162 gm equiv 103-59


Rockies

Lineup Pos PA AVG OBP SLG pwOBA 09wOBA Diff BR Outs dRS
carlos gonzalez cf 23 .265 .318 .435 .327 .367 .040 3 16 3
seth smith lf 22 .304 .376 .489 .376 .382 .006 3 14 12
todd helton 1b 22 .309 .414 .467 .390 .396 .006 4 13 2
troy tulowitzki ss 21 .291 .367 .483 .369 .393 .024 3 13 3
brad hawpe rf 21 .288 .387 .495 .384 .389 .005 3 13 -18
yorvit torrealba c 20 .267 .323 .387 .313 .323 .010 2 14 0
ian stewart 3b 19 .262 .345 .465 .352 .337 -.014 3 12 4
clint barmes 2b 19 .263 .305 .419 .312 .311 -.001 2 13 4
dexter fowler cf 9 .271 .355 .392 .334 .334 .000 1 6 -9
garrett atkins 3b 9 .288 .355 .444 .350 .293 -.056 1 6 -5
chris iannetta c 4 .265 .375 .464 .368 .347 -.021 1 2 -1
ryan spilborghs rf 2 .288 .360 .436 .350 .308 -.042 0 1 1
omar quintanilla ss 2 .270 .330 .370 .312 .224 -.088 0 1 2
matt murton lf 1 .265 .332 .395 .323 .309 -.014 0 1 7
total 194 .280 .354 .448 27 125 0


PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.

Carlos Gonzalez had a pretty good year in 2009 although his projection thinks he was playing over his head. Seth Smith had a very good year offensively and defensively and deserves to be one of the better candidates in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Although he's lost his power, Todd Helton is still probably the best offensive player on the Rockies, and Troy Tulowitzki is also a solid offensive and defensive contributor. Brad Hawpe can hit, but he can't field. Chris Iannetta seems like the better hitting catcher on the roster, but for whatever reason the Rockies seem to prefer playing Yorvit Torrealba.

Defensively, they look to be about a touch above average, with Hawpe canceling out a lot of the good from Smith and the infield.

And the pitching...

Pitcher Role IP H HR BB K pRA pERA pFIP 09ERA 09FIP sIP sR
ubaldo jimenez SP1 193 187 18 83 156 4.98 4.67 4.05 3.47 3.33 12 6.6
aaron cook SP2 194 225 17 43 88 4.98 4.61 4.08 4.16 4.67 6 3.3
jason marquis SP3 196 209 21 79 106 5.38 5.00 4.70 4.04 4.15 6 3.6
jorge de la rosa SP4 151 155 18 62 138 5.29 4.98 4.17 4.38 3.86 5 2.9
huston street CL 65 53 6 19 72 3.56 3.34 3.15 3.06 3.04 3 1.2
rafael betancourt SU 57 50 6 19 53 3.88 3.60 3.82 3.52 3.85 3 1.3
franklin morales SU 106 118 15 41 72 6.30 5.96 4.79 4.50 4.18 3 2.1
matt daley MR 67 74 10 14 49 5.41 5.19 4.32 4.24 3.63 3 1.8
alan embree MR 49 53 6 19 39 5.28 4.93 4.29 5.83 5.26 2 1.2
josh fogg MR 115 124 18 35 64 6.03 5.59 5.00 3.74 5.32 1 0.7
jose contreras MR 151 139 11 63 117 4.60 4.08 3.86 5.41 4.07 1 0.5
randy flores LR 37 43 3 13 30 5.40 4.85 3.86 5.25 3.53 0 0.0
Total 45 46 5 16 33 5.05 4.72 4.17 25.2


pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP

Obviously the pitching projections are skewed by Coors field, but Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook are solid at the top. Jason Marquis had a very good year, but it was way out of character from his past history and CAIRO ain't buying it.

Huston Street and Rafael Betancourt are a good closer and setup man combination, but the rest of the pen isn't particularly awe-inspiring.

In summary:

#games 5
home games 2
#outs 125
offense 26.9
pitching 24.8
defense 0.2
wpct .539
162 gm equiv 87-75



#outs: 27 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching and defense for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season

And running the Phils and Rockies through the Monte Carlo Simulator yields the following odds of advancing past the first round.

Phillies: 67.0%
Rockies: 33.0%

Of course anything can happen in a short series.
--Posted at 1:50 pm by SG / 47 Comments | - (153)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Is anyone watching? Is Ubaldo Jimenez as filthy as gameday suggests?

Game day just had Jimenez at 101. Wow.

I’m watching the unproduced feed. He looks good. No good contact and very strong sequence with Utley.

Yeah, I’m not a huge fan of the raw feeds.  It sucks that the TBS feeds are blacked-out.  It also sucks that the raw-feed is noticbly behind Gameday, so you can’t really use both at the same time.

I love this note:

All Live games on MLB.TV are subject to BLACKOUT RESTRICTIONS.  Your current physical location helps us determine the best subscription package for you.

And by “best for you” they mean “best for us”.

[4] I’m getting my raw feed ahead of gameday. I’m not a huge fan either, but I have it , so I’ll live with it. I only wish that they synced it with a radio feed rather than the TV feed. Radio voices do tend to talk about the game a bit more often. i.e. outs and the count.

He seems to be throwing his secondary pitches a fair amount. I thought this was the NL, where manly men exclusively challenged batters with their fastball. Is he a girly man?

Lee seems to have settled down. Looks like a good pitching game.

What’s your preferred camera arrangement?  I’ve been using the tight CF in the big picture and mid-HP as the small corner.

I thought the NL was were soft tossers threw change-ups and mid-80s fastballs on the outside corner, and got away with it due to getting calls a foot off the plate?

I’m using 4 screens. Centerfield, the two home plates and 3rd baseline.

I don’t there’s a difference between centerfield and tight center.

Ugh now all my feeds are falling out of sync. damnit!

I’m guessing you guys bought postseason.tv?

Yeah.  Ambivalent.  Thought I was getting the TV feed.

there are…um…methods of watching the game online without paying. It’s not 100%, but it’s free.

there are…um…methods of watching the game online without paying. It’s not 100%, but it’s free.

TVU?

Yeah, or myp2p.

A ridiculous curve to get the K, then a high 99 MPH pitch for a swinging strike on Howard. Ubaldo is nasty.

They seem to want to get game 1 over with fast!

So basically, a guy who would be pitching teh ate in the AL, is the game one starter for a NL team.

Ubaldo is very, very good. TV voices saying he doesn’t use the curve in Coors. Get him out of there.

“Ubaldo is very, very good. TV voices saying he doesn’t use the curve in Coors. Get him out of there.”

After my apotheosis there will not be baseball in Denver or any other place where pitchers have to make such compromises.

Get him out of there.

Think Cashman and Theo know when he hits FA?

Can anyone tell me why Ryan Howard was trying to steal 2nd?  I mean, I know there were two outs, but still.  He’s not a fast man.

[15] - Yeah, I’m just worried about being on the school network.  They’ve already chased down one grad student who was doing things that he probably shouldn’t have been doing.

any other place where pitchers have to make such compromises.

Whew! Though all of Seattle fears your next apotheosis in defense of power hitters…

Was strike 2 to Werth an 85-MPH changeup?

Anyone else watching the TV broadcast?  Is anyone else getting muffled sound?  I’m hoping it’s just the feed coming from Philly and won’t affect the MIN-NYY game later.

Was strike 2 to Werth an 85-MPH changeup?

TV voices said it was a slider, in which case, I take it more as a bad sign as it seem like a hanging type.

[20] So you are saying Joba or Hughes or IPK could be the #1 starter for an NL team?

Is anyone else getting muffled sound?  I’m hoping it’s just the feed coming from Philly and won’t affect the MIN-NYY game later.

It was muffled for the Minn Det game too, so I’m assuming, and hoping, it’ll stay that way.  The ratio of things worth hearing to Carey blathering probably won’t favor crisp TV voice audio.

On a different note, I’m sure you’ve considered this already, now that you work in the Biz Jon, would a whole bunch of stuff you got, internet connection, cellphone, transportation, cable, certain food, etc, be deductible/expensible?  Hope I’m not getting too personal.

[29] Only if the team in question wanted to waste their talent.

Hawpe really is a terrible fielder.

Joe Beimel going with the Lawrence from “Office Space” look, I see.

Ubaldo isn’t very good at battle mode. He should talk to Andy.

[20] So you are saying Joba or Hughes or IPK could be the #1 starter for an NL team?

I could see that.

would a whole bunch of stuff you got, internet connection, cellphone, transportation, cable, certain food, etc, be deductible/expensible?

Yeah, some of it definitely is deductible.  My cousin is a CPA, and he said he would help me out with it next year.  I never took tax law so I’d probably end up in prison if I tried to do it myself.

the Phanatic apparently plays a mean tiny grand piano.

[36] Oops, I forgot the main point, save your receipts.

SG…you’re an absolute animal, a true master.  Every now and again I step back and admire the expanse of your contribution to my baseball life.

Lee - 72% strikes (and I have him at 80% first pitch strikes).

I’m looking forward to Lidge.  Adventure!

Wow. horrible play.

[41] He won’t be needed in this game if Lee keeps up his 103 pitch pace.

[43] Yeah, plus the Phils are blowing it open.  Boo!

Great job by Lee today.

Cliff Lee doesn’t seem to have broken a sweat.

If Hamels turns in a similar performance, I think it is practically game over for Colorado.

[45] Yup.  A CG to start off the division series definitely qualifies as a great job.  Let’s hope his former rotation-mate follows suit in a few.

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