Monday, March 30, 2009

2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - ZiPS edition

Below are are the results of Dan Szymborski’s 2009 ZiPS projections when run through Diamond Mind Baseball 1000 times.

To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post

Standings

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYA	96.5	65.5	883	732	501.8	300.8	90-103	840-925	694-771	97	97	531	317	136	15	1	0	100	95-105
BOS	94.8	67.2	857	713	360.0	362.2	89-101	815-899	676-750	95	94	387	369	227	13	4	0	94	90-98
TAM	90.2	71.8	791	681	136.8	264.7	84-96	752-830	644-718	90	89	154	279	490	68	9	0	88	84-92
TOR	76.4	85.6	687	730	1.3	13.3	70-83	651-724	693-767	77	74	3	16	63	514	404	0	79	74-84
BAL	74.8	87.2	796	851	0.3	5.3	69-81	757-834	809-892	75	72	1	8	50	403	538	0	72	67-77
AL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CLE	85.4	76.6	810	763	484.3	6.2	79-92	769-850	725-802	86	87	507	282	124	61	26	0	89	85-94
DET	83.5	78.5	816	785	327.2	15.0	77-90	777-855	744-825	84	85	348	320	189	102	41	0	84	80-87
MIN	78.7	83.3	758	793	120.0	11.3	72-85	720-795	751-836	78	76	132	211	277	262	118	0	79	76-83
KC	76.4	85.6	739	802	55.2	3.5	70-83	699-778	762-843	77	77	62	153	257	291	237	0	75	71-79
CHA	72.0	90.0	773	868	13.3	0.3	66-78	733-813	828-908	72	70	17	70	127	272	514	0	69	64-74
AL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAA	85.3	76.7	784	738	563.0	7.0	79-92	744-824	700-777	85	85	582	285	113	20	0	0	88	83-93
OAK	80.8	81.2	756	753	256.0	8.3	74-87	716-795	715-791	80	79	273	344	310	73	0	0	82	78-86
SEA	79.2	82.8	721	729	174.0	2.0	73-85	684-758	690-767	79	81	185	339	356	120	0	0	76	73-80
TEX	69.2	92.8	783	920	8.0	0.0	63-75	744-822	877-964	69	69	8	57	191	744	0	0	68	63-73
Avg WC	93.5
NL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYN	91.2	70.8	849	749	470.8	154.1	85-97	808-890	711-787	91	89	492	314	166	25	3	0	95	90-100
PHI	88.6	73.4	822	751	301.8	148.7	82-95	782-862	714-789	89	88	323	340	295	38	4	0	89	85-93
ATL	87.5	74.5	791	729	223.8	153.6	81-94	753-830	691-766	88	88	237	340	356	64	3	0	84	80-88
WAS	75.0	87.0	769	827	4.5	7.3	69-81	730-808	788-866	75	74	6	26	132	678	158	0	75	71-80
FLA	66.4	95.6	717	855	0.0	0.0	60-73	681-754	815-896	66	68	0	2	14	188	796	0	65	60-71
NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CHN	95.0	67.0	839	706	730.2	96.8	89-101	799-880	668-744	95	95	747	202	45	6	0	0	96	91-101
STL	87.2	74.8	777	713	195.2	163.5	81-93	737-816	676-749	87	85	212	459	241	73	15	0	88	84-92
MIL	82.5	79.5	802	785	66.7	83.3	76-89	763-841	745-825	82	82	74	268	387	211	58	2	82	79-86
CIN	77.1	84.9	749	785	6.0	16.8	71-83	713-786	747-823	77	79	6	80	245	457	190	22	77	73-81
HOU	71.0	91.0	723	824	2.0	6.0	65-77	685-762	784-864	71	73	2	20	82	207	583	106	70	65-74
PIT	60.2	101.8	678	880	0.0	0.0	54-66	641-715	839-921	60	61	0	0	2	23	143	832	60	54-65
NL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAN	89.1	72.9	817	747	574.8	50.8	83-95	778-856	710-785	89	88	601	266	98	28	7	0	92	87-96
ARI	84.6	77.4	733	709	228.7	69.5	78-91	696-769	670-748	85	82	251	340	255	127	27	0	86	82-90
COL	81.1	80.9	799	798	118.0	30.7	75-88	758-839	758-838	81	78	128	225	290	263	94	0	81	78-85
SF	79.0	83.0	698	713	73.2	18.0	73-86	661-735	673-752	79	79	83	151	261	347	158	0	77	73-80
SD	71.4	90.6	703	788	5.3	1.0	65-78	666-739	749-828	71	74	7	34	86	219	654	0	70	65-75
Avg WC	91.1

W:Average wins over 1000 seasons
L:Average losses over 1000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 1000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 1000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 1000 season. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

Pie Chart Madness!







Clustered Column Charts of Divisional Placings

Comments

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