SG, it seems you have the age wrong for a lot of players. Rodriguez is 33, not 31. I assume you are using the right control for ages in your projections.

So, getting rid of Giambi and Abreu should improve defense, although the degree depends on replacements. Nady is a 9 run improvement, it appears, Teixeira should be a bigger improvement on defense. Also hoping Cano meets or breaks your projections.

Gardner should get some consistent playing time. Hopefully, he can be an on-base threat.

Fun to read the previous thread when I got back, AFTER hearing the game.
Slightly worried that too many here are turning into pre-2004 RS fans - more worried about their rival’s team than about their own.
But we should be free now.  No dynasty.  Yucky’s good, but the whiner’s no cinch and Pap’s hardly Mariano.  Manny’s gone, Varitek and Ortiz are toast - and they’ll be relying upon Drew and Bay?  I’m not scared.  Honestly, think there’s a more than decent chance that the balance of the universe is restored sooner than anyone expects.

I don’t think we’re turning into pre-2004 RS fans, Wombat.  We still root for our team first and foremost!

Why would Melky be so much better in center than in left?  Why would Nady be 9 runs better or worse in one OF position than another?

I assume you are using the right control for ages in your projections.

Yeah, looks like a sort issue.

Why would Melky be so much better in center than in left?  Why would Nady be 9 runs better or worse in one OF position than another?

  Don’t read too much into the numbers for players with small sample sizes at their listed positions.

Ah, yes.  That.  Quite.

I can totally see Gardner hitting that projection. He’s like a gazelle out there with a pretty strong arm.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope Gardner is that good in CF, but the sample is pretty small.

It seems like the Yankees could mix and match in CF, but unfortunately all the options on hand are LH (Damon, Gardner) or effectively LH (Melky).  A decent RH CF with good range would be quite valuable on this roster.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope Gardner is that good in CF, but the sample is pretty small.

We’re talking about defense instead of offense, so it’s not like players will make adjustments to how Gardner catches the ball (as opposed to pitchers adjusting to hitters hitting the ball). The ball is hit into his zone and he goes to get it. IIRC, the starting pitching wasn’t particularly good down the stretch, but that should really be the only thing hiding any flaws he has. We’ve seen him play in that small sample size, and you can see that he has unbelievable speed, takes good routes to balls and has a strong arm.

A decent RH CF with good range would be quite valuable on this roster.

Damon for his career does not have a horrible platoon-split.  I think you can count on him for a .700-ish OPS against lefties, which isn’t bad.  Especially if Posada is healthy and they can get Tex (bigger “if” on the second), because they will have the RH bats to handle lefties then.

Gardner has an EXTREMELY small-sample in the majories against lefties, but in the minors in 2008 he actually hit them better - .910 OPS against .805 vs. righties - in a fair # of AB (104 AB + 16 BB, don’t see SF, SH, or HBP on MiLB.com).  Don’t know about previous years.

Anyway, a RH hitting CF that can field well would be nice, but unless they can find one to just be the starter, I wouldn’t put much resources towards it.  They have bigger problems (who pitches teh eighth!!?!!).  Okay, I’m joking about that.

We’re talking about defense instead of offense, so it’s not like players will make adjustments to how Gardner catches the ball (as opposed to pitchers adjusting to hitters hitting the ball).

The SSS part of the projection isn’t about adjustment, it’s about having enough datapoints to make it meaningful.  I think if SG provided a list of all CF who saved 14 or more runs by ZR since 1987, it would be definitely under 50 seasons, probably under 25.  IOW, he would be one of the top CF of the last 30 years.  And it’s not that he can’t be, it’s just one of those things that you can’t predict, you have to see it to believe it.

That said, I’m confident Gardner can be between 5-8 RS/162, plus maybe a few more with his arm.  Basically be a +1 WAR guy on defense.  So, can he be *only* -1 WAR on offense, or close enough?  I think yes, but I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

The SSS part of the projection isn’t about adjustment, it’s about having enough datapoints to make it meaningful.  I think if SG provided a list of all CF who saved 14 or more runs by ZR since 1987, it would be definitely under 50 seasons, probably under 25.  IOW, he would be one of the top CF of the last 30 years.  And it’s not that he can’t be, it’s just one of those things that you can’t predict, you have to see it to believe it.

That said, I’m confident Gardner can be between 5-8 RS/162, plus maybe a few more with his arm.  Basically be a +1 WAR guy on defense.  So, can he be *only* -1 WAR on offense, or close enough?  I think yes, but I wouldn’t bet my house on it.

I would rely a lot more on my eyes what I see from Gardner. That can’t have a quantified value like what SG puts in there, but I think Gardner can be no worse than Melky in CF as far as defense goes, and slightly better. So, I think he comes close to that projection, small sample notwithstanding.

SInce 1987, here’s the list of CF who’ve saved 14 or more runs per ZR.

It’s rarer than you’d think.

can be no worse than Melky in CF as far as defense goes, and slightly better

Melky last year was +7, I hacked it into a calculater that RS/162 would be either 9 or 10, and that’s really, really good.  So if you are saying you believe Gardner looks a little better, then yes, you’re up to the +14 range.  Still, that’s really, really good.  And I’ve seen Gardner play in Scranton.  I’m just not sure if he’s 1990’s Andrew Jones good, which I think being +14 ZR is.

Gabe Kapler?

The real question regarding Gardner is what sort of OBP he can manage.  If he’s in the .350 range, he deserves a shot to play regularly.

Abreu at -9 or -10?  I thought you had him at -15.

Abreu at -9 or -10?  I thought you had him at -15.

I had him at -15 plays made, -12 runs, but I forgot to regress his projection towards the mean.  Regression pulls him back to -10.

SInce 1987, here’s the list of CF who’ve saved 14 or more runs per ZR.

Thanks SG.  I figured probably under 25, but I left myself an out with “under 50” in case several guys were right at 14/15.  I would have thought Andrew Jones would be on this list a few more times…I suppose the good news is Juan Pierre is the player Gardner is most often compared too, and he’s on this list as well.  I wouldn’t mind having Juan Pierre at his prime, for under $1M.

I can’t see the Dodgers letting him go, but it’d be nice…

If I understand correctly, Bowa can opt-out of his contract.  Of course, the Dodgers could just extend him.  I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if he opts out, “to keep his options open”, and then lets LA and the Yanks bid on him.

If I understand correctly, Bowa can opt-out of his contract.  Of course, the Dodgers could just extend him.  I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if he opts out, “to keep his options open”, and then lets LA and the Yanks bid on him.

Dude, this is a friggin’ 3b coach we’re talking about!  Seriously, someone expects there to be a bidding war over him?  That’s insane.

Then again, these *are* the Yankees…

It’s rarer than you’d think.

Wow, I didn’t realize +14 was that rare. That’s pretty incredible.

I’d have to think the only reason Bowa would come to the Yankees would be so he could be first in line if Girardi is fired. Of course, I don’t know anything about Bowa.. but from everything I’ve read, he likes Torre and isn’t expected to want to leave LA. I guess it does usually come down to money, though.

These are the Yankees, plus there is speculation regarding Bowa’s affect on Cano, plus their last 3b coach was a disaster, plus the coaching staff, like scouting, is something you can throw relatively minor money at while maintaining your roster’s payroll—thus a good place to flex financial muscle.

Wow, look at Justin Christian in there. That’s nice OF defense coming off the bench.

The reason it’s probably difficult to find an CF who is more than +14 defensively is because most teams put one of their best athletes there.  Having suffered through the decline of Bernie Williams, most Yankee fans forgot this - which was why we were mostly excited about Melky until he started swinging at balls above his head on a regular basis.

By the way, I would say Matsui would be more like -30 over 162 games in LF rather than a mere -10.  Matt Stairs covers more ground in left than Hideki.

<i>Matt Stairs covers more ground in left than Hideki.<i>

Ouch.

Glennallen Hill?

(Shudder.)

Chad Curtis? Our Chad Curtis?

Also, are these numbers supposed to depress me as much as they are?

Ok guys, b/c im bored you get my plan for the offseason. (Oh and Europe is the best band ever)

(1) Sign Tex for up to 7 yrs and work with the money but.. give him an opt out after 5 that hell prob. take and thus get rid of the problem of years.

(2) Sign CC if the years work out, I’m scared of the innings counts and I wouldn’t want to go above 6. give him an opt out after 4 and see what you can develop in the meantime.

(3) See if you can convince both Moose and Pettitte to come back. I think that pitching depth (as in the 6,7 starters) is a very underrated part of a team. If either want more than one year then wave goodbye.

(4)Give CF to Gardner and hope to hell it works out.

(5) Offer arbitration to Pudge, Giambi, Abreu and let them all sign elsewhere.

(6) Pick up Marte’s option.

(7) See if you can pick up Marlon Byrd from the Rangers who are awash in OF’s

(8)Move Pena to 3b coach and pick up a players guy type of replacement to compliment Girardi’s style.

(6) Bet on Nady for RF

You end up with a pretty solid rotation

CC
CMW
Joba
Moose
Pettitte

with Hughes starting in AAA with Aceves and IPK to cover for the inevitable injuries.

IF Hughes wins a job out of ST then use him in the pen to start the year and to cover for Joba. There will be injuries, that is a certainty.

The pen is rock solid with

MO
Marte
Bruney
Coke (if he shows in ST)
Melancon (out of ST or at some point)
Robertson
Veras
Edwar etc.

The point is that all these can be easily flipped around as needed. If you have a coupla hot relievers in the minors come the deadline you can flip an Edwar or Veras for something.

The hitting is gonna be a mix and match situation and it’s gonna be on Girardi to make it gel.

1. Damon LF/ CF( on Wang days
2. Jeter SS ( Was really good once he got going, hope it carries over)
3. A-Rod 3B ( in the on again off again cycle this is a MVP year for A Rod)
4. Teixeira 1B ( A true Masher in a understated way)
5. Posada C
6. Nady RF
8. Cano 2B ( will have a huge rebound in keeping with rates from this year)
8. Matsui DH (Is a impact hitter if healthy)
9. Gardner/ Byrd CF

Bench will also cycle through the minors guys quite a bit as it always does.

Molina
Betemit
Melky
Ransom or whoever looks good in ST

Say NO to Manny and Peavy and AJ and Lowe

Let me Know what I missed eh.

A decent RH CF with good range would be quite valuable on this roster.

Can Rocco Baldelli still play center?  Juan Rivera?  How about Jay Payton?  Those are the three free agents that seem to be options.  I wouldn’t mind having one of these guys around if he came cheaply.  Of course, Payton’s offense has been pretty dreadful lately.

Also, are these numbers supposed to depress me as much as they are?

It’s just reality man.

Actually though, if the Yankees sign Teixeira, you’re looking a starting nine of:

1B: Teixiera (+7)
2B: Cano (+3)
SS: Jeter: (-7)
3B: Rodriguez: (-4)
LF: Damon (-4)
CF: Melky/Gardner (+10?)
RF: Nady (-5?)
C: Posado/Molino (-3)

Overall, that’s -3.  That’s pretty close to average.

Swapping Giambi for Teixeira is about a win and a half defensive upgrade.  Swapping Nady for 2008 Abreu is probably close to the same.

This is kind of why I don’t want someone like Dunn.  Even if it means a lesser offense in 2009, the Yankees have a chance to turn what’s been a bad defense for far too long into an average one with just a couple of moves.  Now you can’t ignore offense of course, but I don’t want to see the Yankees signing bad defenders long-term like they have been.

I don’t want to see the Yankees signing bad defenders long-term

I’m confused, so you’re against signing Manny to a 5 year contract?

I’ve said it before.  I wouldn’t take Manny for free.

I am hoping they sign Manny and Bonds to platoon in CF.

I was thinking they could rotate between CF and SS.

Glad I won’t have to throw away the sports section for the next week and a half

Overall, that’s -3.  That’s pretty close to average.

Just curious - what does Baldelli project to do in LF on a rate basis?

Please not Dale Sveum

Baldelli hasn’t played enough to really project as anything other than average.  He does project average in CF, so I guess we could say he’d be a few runs better than that in the corners.  But I wouldn’t put any numbers to him given his lack of playing time.

—-I’ve said it before.  I wouldn’t take Manny for free.—-

You don’t really mean that do you?  Manny for free, Matsui shipped out to Seattle, San Fran, or Queens…..that’s win-win.

I’ve said it before.  I wouldn’t take Manny for free.

As Estelle Costanza would say: “May I ask, why?”

You don’t really mean that do you?

Well, it would never happen.  It’s my way of saying I wouldn’t even kick the tires on him.  But if you really want to be literal, if he was free I’d hold my nose and take him.

As Estelle Costanza would say: “May I ask, why?”

I just don’t like the guy.  I’d have a hard time rooting for him.  He may project decently for 2009 offensively, but he has negative defensive value and he wants 6 f’ing years at $20 million+ per for his ages 37-42 years.  No thanks.

“I had him at -15 plays made, -12 runs, but I forgot to regress his projection towards the mean.  Regression pulls him back to -10.”

I’m from a rather different statistical world - what does the above mean in practice?  In my world, one has a model with some number of parameters, one fits the data (including statistical and systematic uncertainties) in some manner (like minimizing the chi^2), and one says, the value at x=blah is y+/- delta.

So, Baldelli has a $6M club option for 2009, but a $4M buyout.  Why wouldn’t the Rays exercise it?  And if they don’t, what does that mean about him? Am I missing something?

Re: Baldelli, the Rays bought him out rather than exercise his option. It seems they are pessimistic about his mitochondrial disorder.  He definitely can’t be penciled into the OF, but he’s certainly worth the risk I think. He’ll likely be willing to take a year or 2, and could be a solid platoon partner with Gardner or Melky.

I share SG’s sentiments on Manny.  The guy is a hitting machine but I just can’t stand him, even taking away the Sox uniform.  I would feel disgusting just watching him in pinstripes standing in the batter’s box for 5 seconds, staring at moonshots to center field in the new Yankee Stadium. 

So, Baldelli has a $6M club option for 2009, but a $4M buyout.  Why wouldn’t the Rays exercise it?  And if they don’t, what does that mean about him? Am I missing something?

I wouldn’t read too much into it either way.  The guy has been pretty fragile.  But a healthy Rocco is probably above average defensively.

I don’t have anything against Manny - he doesn’t seem to have the necessary awareness to be annoying.  The rumored contract’s not acceptable, which suffices for me.

Yeah, I don’t hate Manny, but the rumored contract is insane. The only way that deal would make sense is if it was a team that was just desperate to be relevant and wanted the attention Manny would bring.

Which I can see some team being willing to pay for - heck, I could see the Dodgers even willing to pay for that.

The Mets would too.

SG a few questions and you do a great job.

1.  How would Jeter do defensively at 2nd?
2.  Would Dunn be an improvement over Abreu in Rf defensively?
3.  How does Miranda compare to the average defensive play at first base?
4.  If the Yankees could swing a trade for either JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar how would there improved range reflect on Arod’s defensive play?

My team would be…

C.  Posada, Molina, Cervelli(if needed for the first month of the season)
1st Miranda, Nady
2nd Jeter
3rd Arod
SS   JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar from a trade with the Brewers
Lf   Nady, Spilborghs
Cf   Gardner, Spilborghs
Rf   Dunn, Nady, Spilborghs from a trade with the Rockies
DH   Matsui, Spilborghs

Bench

Ut   Betemit
Ut   Lorretta
4of Spilborghs
Bc   Molina

Rotation

CC or AJ
Wang
Joba
Matt Cain from a trade of Cano plus
Open competition Pettitte, Hughes, Aceves, Coke

Bullpen

Mo
Marte
Bruney
Melancon
Robertson
Coke if he does not make the rotation
Edwar, Jackson, Albaladejo or Cox

Jeter not playing SS in 2009 is a non starter.

Why Jeter is a lousy SS defensively and since the Yankees did not make the post season even he needs to be looked at.  Jeter means nothing to me going forward as he is likely a shell of ghosts past.

Barring something drastic happening you can pencil Jeter in at SS through 2010. Maybe longer. This was a terrible year for shortstops. Was there an AL shortstop that had a better season than Jeter (offensive and defensive combined)?

Mark Loretta? seriously?

he’s a low power righty that has put up meh hitting over the last 3 years in Fenway and Houston. that would look real good in death valley

Matt Cain?  How does a 1.36 WHIP and 114 ERA+ translate in the AL East? I’d use Cano to get someone better. As far as Jeter- it’s been discussed ad nauseum but he had a good season and it appears that his defense in 2007 was injury related.

I can’t beleive Sox fans are crying about injuries when only Mike Lowell was out.

Did anyone see Kotsay attempt a bunt down 2 runs with a man on first in the 9th?  WTF was he thinking? Maybe he was mad at the Red Sox Nantucket blue-collar mandatory facial hair policy.

Mark Loretta put up a nice year as a utility player.  He can give all infield positions a rest.  I like the idea of having two utility guys who can give both Jeter and Arod days off.  Also if Miranda is having a hard time against lefties I can put Loretta there and play small ball.  He hit .280 with a solid .350 obp which would be nice off the bench.  Plus it’s for just one year.

JJ Hardy 72 OOZ or out of zone plays made compared to Jeter 29 OOZ plays made with Hardy playing 10 more innings.  The Rays as a team had 95 more OOZ plays made then the Yankees so Jeter is a huge issue defensively imo.

Has anybody even mentioned those trades? Pulling shit out of your ass always feels like a waste of time to me.

Both Matt Cain and JJ Hardy have been mentioned as being available.  So yes those trades are out there to be made.

Dan, Jeter is not going to move off of shortstop next year. He likely will not move off of shortstop in 2010, either.

Whether we believe it or not, Jeter is viewed as a GOOD defensive shortstop, not a bad one (and hell, the -7 SG put up for Jeter is actually better than some of his years past).

He is not moving.

So any plan for next year that involves Jeter moving is not even in the realm of possibility.

My issue with Matt Cain has nothing to do with his stuff or ability, but his the fact that he’s been in the top ten in pitchers abuse points for 3 strait year running…

Both Matt Cain and JJ Hardy have been mentioned as being available.

Lane Meyer @ Nomaas today is espousing the idea of trading Cano for Cain.  Cain is a very-good pitcher, and maybe I’m being blind.  But I think after Kevin Long works with Cano this off-season, he’ll clearly be the #1 2B in the AL, and compete for an MVP.  Could definitely be one of those trades that you come to regret.

Also, is Hudson a type A FA (Hudson would be the player Meyer would sign to replace Cano)?  If so, you get Cain but limit who else you can sign in FA.

Hmm, here’s a comment from Chad Jennings, in response to a post about a fan that heard Miranda’s defense was as good as Mattingly’s:

“I don’t think Miranda is the butcher he’s sometimes made out to be, but he’s not a Gold Glove winner. He’s good enough to play first base. Better than Giambi. Worse than Mattingly.”

IMHO, from what I’ve seen of Miranda, that’s about right.  I’d hazard he would be about average at first.

“I had him at -15 plays made, -12 runs, but I forgot to regress his projection towards the mean.  Regression pulls him back to -10.”

I’m from a rather different statistical world - what does the above mean in practice?

All it means is that I add in some amount of league average performance into any projections be it offense, defense, or pitching, to account for both sample size issues and/or sampling error in the statistics being used.  Especially with defense, where the year to year correlation is not very strong (around .5), this helps to ensure that we aren’t overweighing defense compared to offense.

If you wanted to really get technical with the defensive #s, you should view them as binomials. The standard deviations in a single season is anywhere from 5 to 7 runs saved, and even with 4 years of data it doesn’t get any better than maybe 3 runs saved in either direction.  So mentally, when you see that someone like Abreu projects as a -10, knowing we have four years of data, figured that he’s anywhere from a -7 to a -13 in true talent.

“I don’t think Miranda is the butcher he’s sometimes made out to be, but he’s not a Gold Glove winner. He’s good enough to play first base. Better than Giambi. Worse than Mattingly.”

i’d guess half the readers on this site and almost every minor league 1Bman fit into the vast canyon of this definition…

if the Yankees move Jeter, and they won’t in 2009, they will NOT move him to 2B.

that just doesn’t make any sense.  he’d likely be worse at 2B than he is at SS, just from the lack of familiarity.  he’d have to learn an entirely new position at 35, and i don’t think moving from SS to 2B is as easy as some would think.

2B doesn’t really “fix” the problem of a defender with below average lateral range.  if you were going to move him, 2B would probably be the worst choice (besides catcher obviously) to move him to.

i could see the argument for LF, RF, 1B, maybe CF, maybe 3B….

1.  How would Jeter do defensively at 2nd?

I have no idea how he’d adjust to the pivot at age 34, but generally a SS is 3 runs better at 2B.  If we assume he can handle the change, he’d be a -4 or so.

2.  Would Dunn be an improvement over Abreu in Rf defensively?

My mom would be an improvement over Abreu in RF.  Dunn however, probably not.  He projects as around -3 in LF, and -19 in RF, but RF is a very small sample size.  The average LF is about 7 runs worse in RF, which makes him a -10.  He may be ok in a smaller RF like Yankee Stadium though.

3.  How does Miranda compare to the average defensive play at first base?

I wouldn’t go by any numbers here.  The scouting reports aren’t very good, but who knows?

4.  If the Yankees could swing a trade for either JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar how would there improved range reflect on Arod’s defensive play?

It probably should not make any difference.  It’s possible if Jeter is shaded up the middle slightly to account for his lesser range to his left, then Rodriguez is pulled further from the line than he might be, but other than that the impact should be neglible.

maybe I’m being blind.  But I think after Kevin Long works with Cano this off-season, he’ll clearly be the #1 2B in the AL, and compete for an MVP

I know that is likely that Cano will regress to the mean and put up numbers like he did in 2006 and 2007, but people here are very optimistic with him when he was one of the worst players in the AL this season.

Mike, don’t expect Cano to compete for an MVP. You’re not blind, but also you´re not objective with him. Remember that his horrible plate discipline makes him very vulnerable to fall in to long slumps resulting with a loss of confidence. Also, he doesn’t that much power to be the elite player you think he could be.

I don’t want to trade Cano now, as the Yankees will be selling low on him, but don’t over estimate Cano because maybe he’s not what we thought he could be.

he’ll clearly be the #1 2B in the AL, and compete for an MVP

I think Kinsler and Pedroia would have something to say about that. I don’t understand this “well, he’s gonna work all offseason with Kevin Long” stuff. C’mon, he had all freaking season to work with Long, and there was never a sustained turnaround. That said, I think Cano can definitely be the .300/.350/.480 hitter he was in 2007 again, and I wouldn’t be so quick to trade him.

C’mon, he had all freaking season to work with Long, and there was never a sustained turnaround.

Right, but it’s pretty well documented that they started - and will continue -working to reconstruct his swing near the end of the year.  Long talked about the fact that Cano had a swing that he (Long) didn’t like, but since it was working he was reluctant to change it.  They just tried to correct little things within it.

But now after having a prolonged period of *not* being effective, they were going to rework it.  I think the last month, you could see a different swing, much more compact.  Also, “all season”, Long also had to work with about 30 other hitters.  They’re talking about like 2+ weeks where Long will be working ONLY with Cano.  I’d have to think there’s a big difference between watching some video and working for 15 minutes in a cage w/ Long saying, “okay, keep working on that”, to spending 8 hours a day with continuous reinforcement about what is/isn’t working.

My mom would be an improvement over Abreu in RF.

I see why you are being nice to her; you want to keep occupying her basement.

I see why you are being nice to her; you want to keep occupying her basement.

Maaah!  The meatloaf!!!

Any hopes that Jeter is budging from SS should be abandoned.  He is not going to be playing anywhere else for the first season in the new Stadium. 
Honestly, its not really a huge issue for the Yankees.  I was actually far more concerned with his throwing accuracy than his range last season.  Even still, not so worried, am I.
Moving him anywhere but an OF position really doesn’t make much sense.

Let’s just hope the Red Sox resign Varitek for 4 years.

Let’s just hope the Red Sox resign Varitek for 4 years.

That’s actually an interesting topic.  I don’t think they resign him, but who do they get?  There really aren’t any catchers of decent ability on the market.  Do they swing a trade?  Could they go after Pudge?

I’d have to think there’s a big difference between watching some video and working for 15 minutes in a cage w/ Long saying, “okay, keep working on that”, to spending 8 hours a day with continuous reinforcement about what is/isn’t working.

I don’t think Long worked for 15 minutes, etc.., as you described, but I do think there is a lot more you can do in the offseason than you can do during the regular season. Breaking the guys swing down and starting all over would be impossible when he still has to get up to bat 3-4 times a day, 6-7 days/week. In the offseason, you can start from drills and work your way up to a full swing, with, like you said, the benefit of doing it all day long.

It’s not the living in the basement.  They say SG’s Mom may not have much range anymore, but she’s got a cannon of an arm.

I don’t think Long worked for 15 minutes, etc..

I have no idea how long he *actually* works with each player, each day, but the point is that during the season he can only devote a fraction of his time to each player.  I think we’re on the same page w/ that but I just want to make sure.  And as you point out as well, how much can you change his swing when he has to play in a game later that same day?

I think Cano still has all the tools to be an elite hitter - not just elite for 2B, but elite - for at least 4-5 years in his prime.  He just needs some technical adjustments, and to learn to be more selective.  Both of these things *can* be taught, the question is if one of Cano’s skills is the ability to learn them.

Moving him anywhere but an OF position really doesn’t make much sense.

Depending on the timeframe, makeup of the team, how Jeter ages, etc., 1B is always an option as well.  I agree 100% that moving to OF is likely the best for him when he can no longer play SS, but 1B is always an option, too.  I actually think Jeter could make a fine 1B, because the thing he does he worst (going to his right), is the thing he will likely be called upon to do the least.

worst (going to his right),

Er, left.  Going to my right when watching from home.

Wasn’t the story actually that Cano had a dismal first two months but the rest of the season didn’t hit that badly?  Too lazy to read through previous posts/discussions.

“All it means is that I add in some amount of league average performance into any projections be it offense, defense, or pitching, to account for both sample size issues and/or sampling error in the statistics being used.”

This seems wrong to me - does it yield better predictions?

We’ll find out how serious the Yankees are towards building a solid defensive club after 2010. Because if they re-sign Jeter, where will he play, but SS. Until they wake up to the issue, all bets are off. Especially with Hank being Hank.

Mattingly was one of the greatest glove men ever to play 1st base. ZR cannot begin to show his greatness.

I’d love to see Cashman swing Cano for Cain.  But that’s not happening.  Not straight-up at least.  The Giants don’t have a lot to work with except young pitching.  They’ll leverage what little trade bait they have and make it work.  I’d see them wanting Austin Jackson and maybe a young BP arm (Sanchez) as well as Cano.  I think the Giants won’t make a move until they see what Peavy nets the Padres.

Jeter’s not going anywhere in 2009.  And he’s not going anywhere under his own volition.  In fact, I’d bet he’d threaten to sign elsewhere rather than give up the SS position under duress.  Yanks would do well to use one of their 2009 first rounders on a SS if available.

I’d also kick the tires on one of the Rangers three young catchers.  See if the Rangers would be willing to take some of the younger pitching prospects.  Hoping Posada can last all year at catcher is one thing, expecting him to do it is another.  He may be DHing by the end of the year and it would be nice to have a good young catcher waiting in the wings.

It looks like the Yanks will hand CC an ATM linked to the Steinbrenners’ personal bank account.  CC can just withdraw what he wants, when he wants.  That’s on top of his official contract.  I can’t see the Yanks being outbid on CC and his public comments aside, I can’t CC saying no.

If the Yanks could get CC and Cain into the rotation, resign Petitte, then I think CC/Wang/Cain/Petitte/Joba is pretty sweet.  I’d love to have a Max Ramirez backing up Posada, with Posada turning to full-time DH after the season when Matsui is gone.  Sign Hudson to replace Cano.  Me likey.

The Yanks should just trade their current roster plus their entire minor league system for the Rays’ current roster.

The Yanks should just trade their current roster plus their entire minor league system for the Rays’ current roster.

That would be awesome because we’d finally find someone to pitch the eighth - David Price.

“The Yanks should just trade their current roster plus their entire minor league system for the Rays’ current roster.”

Except Mariano.

This seems wrong to me - does it yield better predictions?

In general, yes.

Mattingly was one of the greatest glove men ever to play 1st base. ZR cannot begin to show his greatness. 

Who are you arguing with?

Whatever happened to that icon of the banana firing a machine gun that Don was so fond of?

Mattingly was one of the greatest glove men ever to play 1st base. ZR cannot begin to show his greatness.

Who are you arguing with?

Isn’t that a moot point anyway, as the data needed to determine ZR wasn’t recorded at that point in time? And, haven’t we generally acknowledged the limits of defensive metrics, especially pertaining to 1B and C?

Who are you arguing with?

He’s just mouthing off against ZR again, that’s all.

Wasn’t the story actually that Cano had a dismal first two months but the rest of the season didn’t hit that badly?

Real quick…pre-AS .643, post-AS .815.  Second-half Cano was fine.  More specifically, the only month that he was *horrible* (sub .700 OPS), was a .447 April.  Swap April and September and his OPS is probably over (or at least really close to) .800 at the end of August…

Isn’t that a moot point anyway, as the data needed to determine ZR wasn’t recorded at that point in time?

ZR is available as of 1987, so first 3 years of Mattingly’s career aren’t tracked.  I don’t think ZR is *bad* for a 1B, it just doesn’t tell the complete story.

“Second-half Cano was fine.”

Hence my leeriness about reinventing his swing.  Ok, if it means the highs are similar and the lows are much briefer, then it makes sense.  But I seem to recall people praising Cano’s swing back in the day. 

Somebody here (j?) had some substantive comments about what was out of whack - dunno if that applied in 2006 but Cano was successfully compensating at the time.

Somebody here (j?) had some substantive comments about what was out of whack

Cano and Melky had similar problems. You’re supposed to load on your back foot and then lead with your hips, yet a lot of times, you would see Cano (and Melky) actually lift their back foot half way through their swing and let it slide back (towards the dugout).  It’s impossible to have your weight on your back foot and have it moving at the same time, so he’s obviously off balanced and leaning forward. From there, it just gets ugly.. you try to adjust and it snowballs into what we say this year. Just IMO.1

I’d love to see Cashman swing Cano for Cain.

I think this is would be an awful idea, Cano for Cain, even straight up.

Cano’s 2008 is certainly reason to wonder about what his future will be like, but would it really surprise anyone to see Cano be a .300/.360/.500 hitter at 2B with the highest RSAA in the AL as early as next year? That wouldn’t surprise me at all, because I’ve seen him show the ability to do that.

Sabathia is going to set the price ridiculously high for starting pitchers in the offseason, and for teams that don’t want to pay the money, GM’s are now shopping their Peavy’s and Cain’s (which is certainly a good idea.) But the price tag in prospects and players will be high as well.

I mentioned this before and nobody said peep, probably because it was before one of the ALCS games: if Sabathia is going to cost a king’s ransom, and then teams who can’t get him are forced to do with the likes of Burnett, Sheets, Lowe, Garland (and their warts), or trade the farm for Peavy (or Cain, if it’s to be believed), then does it make any sense at all to dangle Wang out there and see what you can get? That may be robbing Peter to pay Paul, but I think I would seriously consider a rotation of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Pettite, Mussina, and Hughes/Kennedy/etc, if it meant something like Loney and Broxton package in return, or something of that nature.

“Jeter’s not going anywhere in 2009.  And he’s not going anywhere under his own volition.  In fact, I’d bet he’d threaten to sign elsewhere rather than give up the SS position under duress.”

I love this quote and believe me I would be first in line to hold the door open for a disgruntled Jeter!  If the Yankees are a better team with him off SS I don’t give a damn what he thinks!  If you are the Captain and your mantra is always team team team and then you cry when you are asked to move off SS for the betterment of the team screw you.

Dan661, that’s true… but let’s not forget that we don’t know that this actual scenario has played out.  Until we do, we shouldn’t pretend that it has.  And he may have earned some degree of benefit-of-the-doubt over the years.

“you would see Cano (and Melky) actually lift their back foot half way through their swing”

Well, then, is the point getting him back to 2006 or doing something entirely new?

Well, then, is the point getting him back to 2006 or doing something entirely new?

I honestly can’t remember if he was doing this in 2006 or not, I just know that I saw it in 2008.

Just thumbing through some old names, the Yankees should keep an eye on Craig Wilson, who looks like he recovered nicely from his shoulder surgery and is now in Seattle’s system.

Was Jeter not the best SS in the AL last year, or damn near the top? Including his horrible start? Seems like a funny thing to whine about.