Are you somehow suggesting that the Sox should be favored because they’re the better team right now and not because they’ve beaten the Angels in the past?

Silly, I know.

Dick Gregory once said during the bad old days of the South that he had watched the Mississippi/Mississippi State football game and rooted for the commercials.

That said only one team resides in hell, the other more like purgatory and I’m rooting for the Halos because I think they will be easier and as much of a pleasure to beat whereas losing to Satan’s spawns would feel way worse.

Here’s a quick look at the Twins’ possible opponents for the next round…

I see what you did there…

So let me get this straight.  The high-quality analysis you put up here is completely uncompensated.  The analysis found at ESPN etc is highly paid for. Does that make sense?  That does not make sense.

[4] good point. How has SG not been stolen away from us by people with big pockets?

[5] They are not interested in analysis based on facts.

[5] Because he is a man of honor and courage.

[6] That too.

[7] He’s going to release a statement about how he wants loves RLYW and can’t imagine playing anywhere else. Then in the offseason he’s going to sign a huge contract and go play for the Yankees.

I was hoping to keep this quiet, but I’m leaving the RLYW after this postseason and going to write for Boston Dirt Dogs.

Let’s consider a player who’s probably heading to the Hall of Fame. This player bats cleanup for a very good team and has been an MVP. In the postseason, this player has hit .240/.337/.293 in the postseason in his career. Yet, Chip Caray doesn’t seem to feel the need to continually recite those stats. That’s what Vlad Guerrero has done in the postseason in his career. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad postseason player or is unclutch, it just means that he’s had 86 bad PAs. Just like it means for another former MVP who’s probably heading to the Hall of Fame as well.

Outstanding.

Red Sox 59.2%
Angels 40.8%

I’m surprised it’s not a little bit closer, considering that they’re only 2-3% different over 162 and the “weaker” team has HFA.

[9] that was ugly. You get the point though.

Outstanding.

Even though I said “In the postseason, this player has hit .240/.337/.293 in the postseason”?

If they pay him enough will he be on Baseball Tonight saying things like Ellsbury is batting .357 over the last 11 games and .411 with RISP or will he eschew the big bucks if intellectual dishonesty is the price?

I’m surprised it’s not a little bit closer, considering that they’re only 2-3% different over 162 and the “weaker” team has HFA.

Yeah, that’s actually wrong.  I had the numbers from an older version of the Angels depth chart I worked up.  Re-running it now.

[14] He’ll have to leave his mom’s basement and get some prescription strength acne cream though. Maybe even have to give up the weekly LAN parties.

How has SG not been stolen away from us by people with big pockets?

He refused to be a fool dancing on the strings held by all of those big shots.

Red Sox: %
Angels: %

So… what you’re saying is, there’s a chance?

[13] OK.  Let’s go with, “needs a bit of editing, but otherwise, outstanding.”

Best analysis I’ve seen yet, and I’ve been looking. SI’s #1 factor was that the Sox are in the Angels’ dome because of the past series. [loud buzzing sound] thanks for playing.

One note: Daniel Bard has fallen off some lately, about a 6 ERA for his last 20 innings or something. Might also be hitting the wall. Manny Delcarmen suffered minor injuries in a car accident—because his Hummer needs three football fields to go from 60 to 0. Anyway, he’s out for now.

Comments on the season win differential between NYY and RS?  I would have thought the Yankees have improved more over the year, but I guess having a nominally good Dice-K vs not having a good CMW is significant.  Did the Yankees win a lot of 1-run games while the RS lost more than expected or something?

Yanks were 22-16 in one-run games; Sox 22-17.

Estimated strength of schedule was surely nearly the same.

[5] They haven’t been able to locate SG, his mom, or her basement.

If the Angels don’t win tonight, I can’t see them winning the series.

I was hoping to keep this quiet, but I’m leaving the RLYW after this postseason and going to write for Boston Dirt Dogs.

This is unbelievably outstanding. Jonathan should forward this sentiment to Abraham.

Manny Delcarmen suffered minor injuries in a car accident—because his Hummer needs three football fields to go from 60 to 0. Anyway, he’s out for now.

Yeah, I listed him there but didn’t give him any innings.

Comments on the season win differential between NYY and RS?

As far as run differential as it translates to expected winning percentage using Pythagenpat:

Yanks: .594, 96 wins
Red Sox: .581, 94 wins

As for why the Yankees exceeded Pythagenpat by 7 wins, they essentially did the same as Boston in one run games (22-16 vs. 22-17), so that’s not really it.  I think one thing you’re seeing is the effect of something I’d call ‘concentrated suck’.  For example, the game where Wang and Claggett combined to give up something like 18 runs in 4 innings probably counts as two losses on virtual paper, even though it was really only one. 

The Red Sox essentially swapped out Varitek for Victor Martinez, which is something like a 3 win upgrade over a full season I think.  They also removed Julio Lugo for Alex Gonzalez which is another small upgrade.  Gone are Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Billy Traber, all of whom were worse than replacement level, which makes the Red Sox better as well.

The Yanks had better health in the pitching staff too I think, with three starters at 230, 207, and 195 IP.  After Lester and Beckett, Boston’s next highest IP total was 131 by Penny.  That advantage goes away when re-projecting going forward, especially if you add back a more effective Matsuzaka.

Eyeballing the projections here, it looks like CAIRO is giving the Red Sox boosts for Ellsbury, Pedroia and Ortiz as far as their projections compared to how they actually did in 2009, which also narrows the gap between the two teams going forward compared to the disparity in the 2009 regular season.  I think CAIRO didn’t see any of the Yankees playing better than they had in 2009, although I’d need to go back and check.

KLaw is the best:

MARTIN (MALVERN,PA)

NO ONE IN ESPN PICKED THE PHILLIES IN THE WORLD SERIES BARELY TO EVEN GET TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIEs. ID HAVE TO SAY THEY LOOKED THE BEST FROM EVERYONE YESTERDAY. THOUGHTS

Klaw (1:10 PM)

I PICKED THEM TO WIN THE NL PENNANT AND REALLY YOU SHOULD TRY TO FIND YOUR CAPS LOCK KEY IT’S NOT HARD IT’S ON THE LEFT SIDE OF YOUR KEYBOARD AND CONVENIENTLY SAYS “CAPS LOCK” IF YOU’RE STILL CONFUSED

klaw has more patience than I would

I’d add

COLE HAMELS IS GETTING SHELLED TODAY, RAISING SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PHILLIES’ ABILITY TO GET OUT OF THE NLDS.

The Red Sox essentially swapped out Varitek for Victor Martinez, which is something like a 3 win upgrade over a full season I think.  They also removed Julio Lugo for Alex Gonzalez which is another small upgrade.  Gone are Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Billy Traber, all of whom were worse than replacement level, which makes the Red Sox better as well.

And yet the early, flawed version of the Sox went 8-0 against the Yankees, while the improved version was 1-10. Could intangibles be at work here? cuz these aren’t tiny sample sizes.

What I don’t understand is why the ‘s’ in “SERIEs” is lowercase.  Did he hit the shift-key for that?

Really, did Chase Utley just try to bunt down 4?  Chase Utley?

[30]  They are tiny sample sizes.  11 games?  Seriously?

[30] No punctuation FAIL.

And yes, 10 games is a tiny sample. Just as the first 8 was. Or even the last 4 was in 200…

Wait, that never happened.

Two Red Sox fans are going to get into an argument on a Yankee fan site?  Cool.

If 8 = tiny SS and 11 = tiny SS, then what does 8 + 11 = 19 = ?

They are tiny sample sizes.  11 games?  Seriously?

For player data, of course. But do we take stats so seriously that we contend we learn nothing about the teams involved by three consecutive lopsided series in succession? Not willing to go that far myself.

Two Red Sox fans are going to get into an argument on a Yankee fan site?

Oh yeah? well I love the Sox inifinity plus one!!

I’ve never understood Joe Blanton. Never.

[30-36]

I thought they only played 18 times this year. 0-8 and then 9-1.

[36] Actually, when the Sox first played the Yankees, they were kind of a mess. Teix wasn’t firing all that much, Mariano wasn’t himself, no Rodriguez. Later, when they faced the Yankees, they were playing better. Not 9-1 better, but perhaps 6-4 better.

OK, maybe it was all just very good followed by very bad timing, w/r/t slumps. But I am paranoid about the Sox’ recent failures against the yankees, though it won’t matter if their season-long inability to hit good pitchers carries through into the ALDS.

Great stuff, SG.  *applause*

Does anyone else see the MLB marketing gods trying to cast Pedroia in Jeter’s image? I mean, without the mention of hot dates, the whole shpiel yesterday went “i live for the postseason” and “we’re here to win one day at a time” etc. Maybe they have the same speechwriter, but I think one Jeter is enough until he retires and we clone him.

For player data, of course. But do we take stats so seriously that we contend we learn nothing about the teams involved by three consecutive lopsided series in succession? Not willing to go that far myself. 

I mean, did we learn nothing?  No, that’s a little extreme.  But did we learn anything meaningful?  We learned the Yankees are playing pretty damn well down the stretch.  We learned that the Yankees were better in those games.  The Yankees caught some breaks in those game, got some timely hits that the Sox didn’t, just like the Sox did and the Yankees didn’t in the first eight.  There’s just very little you can glean from a subset of games like that in terms of predictive value, unless the Yankees had outsocred the Sox like 134-18 in those games - which, while it seemed like they did at times, they most certainly did not.

Does anyone else see the MLB marketing gods trying to cast Pedroia in Jeter’s image?

That could be as much Pedroia himself as much as it is MLB marketing - Pedroia is on the record as being a huge Jeter fan and supposedly basically followed him around thoroughout the WBC trying to emulate his habits.

[39] is correct.  Even smaller SS!

Ok, someone explain this to me:

“Clint Barmes hits a sacrifice bunt. Ryan Spillborghs to first. Clint Barmes to first. None out.”

And yet, Clint Barmes doesn’t get a hit per official scorer. Phillies haven’t made an error.

So, is the fact someone gets a hit based on intent? I.e., if you intend to sacrifice you can never have a hit? How do you verify intent then? Or am I getting too worked up on something that will be corrected in the next half inning or so?

Also, it appears Blanton didn’t stick around for long, Happ came in and was promptly injured from something, and so Scott Eyre is now in.

[45] SO nobody told him he should have been following Jimmy Rollins around instead?

“two losses on virtual paper”

Wow, we’ve moved past regular paper.

You know, I have to admit, I miss Pete Abe. Once you get past the pettiness, he was a funny guy. Way funnier than the current lot. And I don’t need Sam Borden staring down at me while I’m trying to get my news.

[47] I did not see the play, but fielder’s choice, no out, no error is a fairly common official scoring decision.  I would assume that the Phillies tried to get the lead runner and failed.  As we say, it doesn’t have to be a wise choice.  If the out at first was there for the taking, the Barmes deosn’t deserve to be credited with a hit.

How has SG not been stolen away from us by people with big pockets?

He refused to be a fool dancing on the strings held by all of those big shots.

SG has already secretly been picked to take over the Yankees GM post when Cashman retires.  Hopefully he’ll choose many of you as consultants and I can get his coffee.

What accounts for the uptick in Vlad’s projected wOBA from his actual one?

I don’t miss Abraham, but I do agree that they need a different picture of Borden.  He looks like Chad Jennings trying to act tough.  Very confusing and mildly disturbing.

[44] Thanks Joe, I accept your logic. Doesn’t stop me from worrying, though that says more about me than the facts.

Look who’s up to bat for the Phillies!  It’s Miguel Cairo!

Miguel Cairo is still in MLB?  Good for him!

Miguel Cairo!

He should be playing 1st base and batting 3rd.

Did a Phillies pitcher get literally knocked out of the game? Hope is wasn’t too grisly.

I detest this business of interviewing managers/coaches in the middle of the game.

And why can’t my 6-year-old watch the playoffs without me having to explain what an erection is and why you should call your doctor if it lasts more than 4 hours?

Pedroia is on the record as being a huge Jeter fan and supposedly basically followed him around thoroughout the WBC trying to emulate his habits.

I have a very disturbing image of a Keebler elf hiding behind a shrub taking down notes as he watches Jeter put the moves on Minka Kelly.

Giambino sighting.

[60] I have a very disturbing image of a Keebler elf hiding behind a shrub taking down notes as he watches Jeter put the moves on Minka Kelly.

Or worse, an image of that elf practicing those moves a Minka Kelly blowup doll.

Isn’t Pedroia married? I guess he could still have the doll.

Isn’t Pedroia married? I guess he could still have the doll.

With a newborn. And really, he is just 26 or something like that. He just lost a lot of hair due to continuous licking of his head by Neyer and Gammo, followed by the whole contingent of MSM.

A friend of my tried to by Pedroia a shot a Patron. He turned it down.

And I’m pretty positive the reason the Yankees chose the ALDS they did was so they could watch Jim and Pam get married tonight.

Interesting thing I just saw on KLaw’s chat:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2009-standings.shtml

It looks like the Cubs will have the 15th (and thus, the last protected) pick in the 2010 draft. The Rays have the 16th (first unprotected) pick. The Cubs finished 0.5 games ahead of the Rays by virtue of not making up a rain out. With the 15th pick, the Cubs can sign a type A free agent and not lose the draft pick - the Rays would lose that pick if they sign a type A free agent. This is probably good news for the Yankees, but I’d be pissed if I was the Rays.

A friend of my tried to by Pedroia a shot a Patron. He turned it down.

Man this is butchered. “buy Pedroia a shot of”

He just lost a lot of hair due to continuous licking of his head by Neyer and Gammo

OK, now I’m trying to get that image of the Keebler Elf stalker back into my head.

With a newborn. And really, he is just 26 or something like that. He just lost a lot of hair due to continuous licking of his head by Neyer and Gammo, followed by the whole contingent of MSM.

I peed a little.

I think Manny is going for this look:

Does it become distracting at some point?

Is it weird of me to be mad that Joe Torre just brought in his closer for the 8th inning, to face the Cards’ 3 best hitters, when he’s losing by a run? 

I mean, the move is smart, and unorthodox.  But this used to be Scott Proctor territory, back in 2006.

[71] - Ah, but you see, Torre has the benefit of having 2 “closers” now.  Sherrill has the all-important “closing experience” and therefor is able to pitch in the 9th inning without crapping himself.

[70] Manny wants to look like me?

“Good for him.”

I remember that.

With a newborn.
All true… and she’s apparently down with dying her hair dark brown and having her husband call her “Minka.”

Torre wishes that he had a Scott Proctor at his disposal this series, but he’s just forced to make do with the likes of Broxton and Sherrill.

Seriously, though, bringing the closer in down a run in a playoff game when you have the next day off isn’t all that unconventional.  Especially at home.

Seriously, though, bringing the closer in down a run in a playoff game when you have the next day off isn’t all that unconventional.  Especially at home.

In the 8th?  It wasn’t conventional 15 years ago.  I submit that it is now, and I challenge you, MC, to waste 5 minutes of your life proving me wrong.

Matt Kemp was born in Midwest City, Oklahoma.

Is there a more bland, generic city name?

So does Larussa go back to Wainwright in the 9th or does he roll the dice with Franklin?

To continue from the last thread, I’m hoping the Angels win. More satisfying to beat because it never happens, easier to stomach a loss because their fans (do they have fans?) are a million miles away, and I can’t bring myself to root for Boston.

[78] It would be awesome if La Russa decides to have two pitchers pitch in sequence to the same hitter. That would be some confusion and farce.

His number guy tells him that hitter A is pretty poor at hitting the first pitch from a RH pitcher, but he is pretty good at hitting the third pitch from a RH hitter, but not so good against a LH pitcher. So he will pitch the first pitcher for the first two pitches, and should the count go to the third pitch, he will bring in the lefty, and put the righty somewhere in the field. And maybe for the fifth pitch, he brings in the righty again.

Matt Holliday’s free agent price went down a little.

That call wasn’t unreasonable.

Steve Phillips, within a space of two minutes in his chat today:

Alfredo (Miami)

With Joba going to the bullpen, I see the Yankees having a similar situation then what happened in the late 90’s as they trim the game to 6 innings. However, if they advance will it be a good idea ti leave Joba in the Pen or place him back on the rotation?

Steve Phillips (2:07 PM)

I think at this point, Joba is probably better serving the Yankees in the bullpen than in the starting rotation. Chad Gaudin can pick up that starter’s role and be effective with that slider. It will be interesting to see if Girardi and the Yankees can be lucky enough to advance through the first round.

DG (Atlanta)

How well do the Yanks and Twins match up in the series?

Steve Phillips (2:09 PM)

The Yankees have a distinct advantage in that they by far the better bullpen, although I have great respect for Joe Nathan. The Yankees also have by far the better offense. The Yankees should win the series, and on paper, should probably sweep the series. It’s impossible to quantify the confidence and momentum the Twins have and how it will ultimately display itself in the series. It will be a major upset, however, if the Twins were to find a way to win the series.

Wow.  LA is going to win this series I guess.

Ryan Franklin is a closer? Yes, David Robertson can be a closer right now. Easily.

The Cards could probably bounce back in a seven game series. In a five game series, it will be very tough to do.

So, when does the “Pujols is a choker” storyline start?

STL absolutely needed to win at least one game with Carpenter or Wainwright on the mound.  They are toast.

Lohud:

The Post is reporting that the Yankees are “leaning heavily” toward keeping Chamberlain in the pen should they make the ALCS, which is hardly surprising – Gaudin has been miles better as a starter over the past month – but what if they need a starter in this series? Mother Nature may end up forcing the Yankees to make the call on Joba sooner than they expected.

I got the same impression about Joba’s likely role from listening to Girardi with Francesa earlier today.

So, when does the “Pujols is a choker” storyline start?

Probably not until that Homerun that he hit against Lidge in game 5 in Houston in 2005 finally lands.

So, when does the “Pujols is a choker” storyline start?

A ring grants immunity from such attacks.

[89] I can’t say I think this is that bad an idea. I want Joba in the rotation in the long run as much as the rest of you, but I can’t necessarily say that I think he has made the adjustments necessary to be effective as a starter right now. I don’t hate the idea of having Gaudin try to keep them in the game for 5 innings (or even 4+) and then mix and match after that. It is possible that Joba might be more effective coming in and throwing hard and angry for 1 inning.

But I don’t know. Maybe Gaudin will just get hammered. I certainly feel better about him pitching against the Twins than against the Sox.

A ring grants immunity from such attacks.

That’s probably true, but I suspect that there would be an A-Rodian exception to that general rule.

Why do the Red Sox fans get their own play by play, Don Orsillo, for TBS games and Yankee fans are stuck with Chip freakin’ Caray?

That’s probably true, but I suspect that there would be an A-Rodian exception to that general rule.

Hopefully, we’ll get to find out.

Careys and Bucks should be on that list of things you can check off so that the exterminators will eliminate them.

I love it when an announcer lauds a player’s versatility by saying “he can DH,” like that’s a special skill.

And Ellsbury is fast enough to make the first out before anyone else can get it.

[95] If the Yankees win the WS and AS-Rod wins series MVP, the storyline will be about how he finally learned to hit under pressure.  This will be just as annoying as the current storyline.

just as annoying
Having read this, MacEnroe is hurling things across my living room, hollering - “Frog - you cannot be serious!
Did you forget the phrase If the Yankees win the WS and AS-Rod wins series MVP?