Last night Neyer said if he had to pick between Lee and Sabathia, he would go with Lee, but that it was a slight edge.
Given the lineups each has to face, with Lee facing righties like A-Rod and Jeter, and SHs Teixiera, Posada and Swisher, I would think the edge when accounting for matchups goes to CC.  Especially considering the Phillies big three are lefties.

Cutter, can we get a early weather forecast?

Nobody besides Lee scares me, but I still am nervous by the offense. The pitching will have to continue to carry the team.

Lee hasn’t been especially effective against righties this year either.

You want a prediction about the weather - I’ll give you a prediction. It’s gonna be cold; it’s gonna be gray, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life.

Although it did seem like they were being extra patient yesterday. Hopefully Lee will be rusty and they can take advantage.

If Jeff “the Sultan of Swat” Mathis couldnt take down the Yankees, I dont see a reason to be overly concerned about anyone else.

But seriously, I get that the Phillies have a REALLY good lineup. However, wont the Yankees lineup be the best one the Phillies have faced? (Unless the Cardinals petition to allow Pujols to bat for everyone on their team was granted by the league)

From that Rosenheck piece:

Howard, in particular, has a large platoon split: over his career, he has hit righties as if he were Lou Gehrig and lefties as if he were Lou Merloni.

Is Graeme Lloyd available?

Is Graeme Lloyd available?

I think so. Didn’t his wife die?

No, I meant I’m nervous about the Yankees’ offense. If Groundzilla is here to stay they’ll just pitch around Alex all day.

Heyman:

nothing official yet but #yanks leaning toward rotation of 1 thru 7: CC, AJ, Pettitte, CC, AJ, Pettitte, CC.

[111] I’m not worried at all, but I think Cano is about to go on a hot streak. He can bat 5th.

[113]  No chance Joe bats Cano ahead of Matsui in the DH games.

Unless Puholtz is hitting 5th they’ll pitch around Arod.

That’s why they have to get runners on base when bats.

He’s already dropped the Zomb behind Mr. 10 LOB.  If that doesn’t change, they should be the 6&7 hitters.

If Jeff “the Sultan of Swat” Mathis couldnt take down the Yankees, I dont see a reason to be overly concerned about anyone else.

Wait until you meet Carlos “How the Farns did I have this 103 OPS+ year!” Ruiz.

That was against the lefty starters.

Also, for those looking for Phillie counterparts to gohalos.com or halosheaven.com, I don’t think there are any, but this one has some promise.

More from Heyman:

#phillies rotation plan appears to be lee in 1, 4 and 7 (3 dates with cc), pedro in 2, hamels in 3. 5 and 6 up in air.

Base solely on this series, Pettitte deserves the title of “Battle Cat”
In other news, this team is the most likable Yankees team I’ve seen in a great while.

I am surprised they would throw Pedro in game 2 instead of the lefty Hamels, but I welcome it.  That should be an awesome game.  Imagine if Pedro pulls off another great performance, and then the Yankees come back on him with a rally in the 7th?

It would be even better if he gets left in there for a batter too long.

I say start CC, AJ and Pettitte games 1-3 and then hope rainouts allow some of the guys to pitch on 4 days rest.

I wonder if Girardi would consider a pure bullpen game in game 4.  Have the game started by a reliever and pinch-hit for the pitcher everytime his spot came up.  You could even plan it so Marte and Coke face the string of lefties.  This is probably too crazy and the everyone on three days rest plan makes more sense.

constants thus far in the post season: When I watch an entire game the Yankees win, and when the Yankees play in NYS they win. These should remain constants.

I don’t really get the whole “Phillies are the deepest/best lineup the Yankees have faced” bit. I mean, its not like the Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, Angels, or Twins were exactly slouches.

[126] Although, now that I think of it, they will be put to the test as the Yankees will be home for game 1, but I will be unable to watch.

[127] Please remove the Twins from that. They have the fake M&M boys, a guy with a .400 OBP, two other above average-ish hitters, and 4 replacement level or below hitters. The back of their lineup is brutal. They count on Delmon Young for power.

So… how much longer until the World Series start?

Phils starting lineuo with Stairs @DH average ops+ 111, Halos 112, Sawx with V Mart catching and Green at SS 113, the Yankees 127

[131] Is OPS+ adjusted for league or are AL/NL numbers not really comparable? I can never keep track of these things.

I think they’re adjusted but am not sure.

I would think we’ll see Francisco in LF and Ibanez at DH.  Especially against CC (and Pettitte, should he start any home games).

wow it really just dawned on me this afternoon that we’re really back here rooting for our team in the World Series. This is great and I’m going to enjoy it win or lose.

I’d bet that OPS+ are per league.  It’s not a priori trivially obvious how to compare leagues.

baseball-reference.com has some interesting numbers for team batting.  I haven’t quite figured out how to reconcile them.  I would think aggregate OPS+ would have to be 100, but maybe it’s not due to park-factors?

You can sort these by OPS+, or anything you like:
2009 AL
2009 NL
2009 MLB

Now, obviously the NL teams include the pitcher hitting, but I thought it was interesting that the Twins had the second highest OPS+ in the AL, apparently having an all-world catcher makes a huge difference.

[129] People seem to mistake the Twins for a bad offensive club, which they most certainly were not.

[137] Hey, that backs up my comment perfectly! Huzzah!

Shouldn’t an NL away team (or the yankees when playing w/ NL rules) always “start” the pitcher who started the last game, just in case his spot comes up in an important spot in the 1st?

In other words, AJ pitches game 2, and is unavailable in game 3.  You start him in game three anyway (maybe not even in the 9 hole, depending on lineup construction), and if his spot comes up in the 1st, you pinch hit for him.  If his spot doesn’t come up on the first, then you bring in a reliever to get you one inning (or 2, depending on where you are in your own lineup).  Then, when that spot comes up, you pinch hit, and put in your “normal” starter.

[139] If they aren’t any rule preventing that I really don’t understand why team don’t always do that (in the NL of course).

presumably it would be legal, but I think people wouldn’t/don’t do it out of some combination of laziness and benches barely being deep enough to sustain the current amount of pinch hitting.  Also, I think having a reliever starting a game would be the more radical part of your plan, so the lineup would have to go around in the top of the first, in which case who cares if the pitcher makes an out.

[137] Hey, that backs up my comment perfectly! Huzzah!

Are we going back to threading about squirrels?

I say start CC, AJ and Pettitte games 1-3 and then hope rainouts allow some of the guys to pitch on 4 days rest.

a rainout would probably make things worse, depending upon when it comes, and whether or not they build another off day back into the schedule.

if game 4 was rained out, CC could have to pitch game 7 on 2 days rest…

Yeah, given the distance between the ballparks in question, I’m pretty sure they won’t be adding travel days back in if any games are rained out.  So a game five or six rainout might be marginally helpful, but any other rainout probably hurts.

Accpording to the guys in the BP IRC chat, a pitcher who starts in the pitchers spot in the order must face at least one batter.

[102] I would be totally down with only calling Jonathan “Cutter” unless and until he re-adopts what was one of the coolest screen names ever. A tragic sacrifice at the altar of domestic tranquility, that.

I hate off days. But they are more easy to take when, like tonite, Spike TV is running Kill Bill.

Hey, Thurm, has the Katt shown up yet ? I’m missing like $75 from my wallet and my best cigar lighter.

Aye Pin. He’s happy to be back. Gorging on tuna and cheese. He returned my Amex card. Said he needed the cash for lap dances in Toledo and Binghamton.
I ‘m not sure if I believe his scandanavian blarney.
I’ll get you the cash back ASAP.

Sorry about the lighter, he lost it in a casino.

[148] The sacrifices we all make in the name of Victory.

The Empire Stikes Back. mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Don- last nights celebration.. thanks for feeding him, the hair gel was good too. He looked much better than I did at 0600.
Binghamton to Westchester to New Haven, not a direct path home.
SSF- Thanks. I propped you and your team in 07 and hated doing it. Real men, man up. You did. Tip of the cap.

Would one of you whipper-snappers please clue this old fart into what the fuck the kids at work find so funny about walking around saying “Ma ! The meatloaf !” all day long ?

In return, I’ll clue you in to “Dy-no-mite !” and “Where’s the beef ?”

Fun with SSS: A-Rod now has a higher career BA (.307), OBP (.408), and OPS (.977) in the postseason than in the regular season (.305, .390, .965).

Aroldis Chapman was at Game 6?

[151] It’s a Wedding Crashers reference.

It stopped being relevant years ago. Do you work in 2005?

[145] I wonder what would happen if the pitcher got hurt in his first at bat and had to be removed from the game?

[154] Huh. Yeah, skipped that.

[155] IT/IS. Apparently they don’t “get out” much.

So, is it OK to bust on them ? This is touchy - they may be lame, but I’m so lame I didn’t know they were. It’s hard to fake being hipper than you really are.

I’d like to see a SG monte carlo on the series odds.

It’s hard to fake being hipper than you really are.

Wait until they find out you are a regular here.

It’s hard to fake being hipper than you really are.

You’d be surprised.  If you can pull off being an enigma, they won’t know what the hell to do with you.

I’m very, very excited for this series.  The Phils are a damn good team, almost a Bizarro Yankee squad.  I’ll knock on wood when I say that it’s the Mo/Lidge thing that will help me sleep soundly tonight.

Oh yeah.  And tomorrow night, too.  Bloody off-days.  Didn’t we just deal with this crap?

[157] At least they aren’t quoting Napolean Dynamite.

I really strongly dislike that movie.

Your mom went to college.

Rejoice…Steve Phillips has now been fired. You’re next Kruk!

The Freude/Schadenfreude ratio here is getting a bit low.

And if there are any problems with length from any of the starters, the Yankees have a deep enough bullpen that you’d feel comfortable (though not thrilled) if they needed 12 outs from it.

This would be true if Girardi actually trusted anyone out there.

In any case, you’d have Aceves right behind him, and then Hughes and Robertson

Again, Girardi has shown little inclination to do this, even though its what he did all season.

[153]

Sign Chapman!

So far in the post-season, Girardi hasn’t faced a situation where he needed to go get a starter before the seventh inning, so it’s pretty hard to predict what he would or would not do if this came up in the WS.

Plus, the got twenty outs from the bullpen in game 2.

[169] What did he do all season when he would pull a starter in the 7th? He’s not doing that in the post-season.

So, IOW, you think he should ignore the fact that the games mean more and that there are more off days for the best relievers to rest between appearances?

Bobby Cox is going into the HOF, arguably as one of the greatest managers of all time.  But he’s got a very mediocre post-season track record and what should have been a dynasty only got one ring, mostly because he never learned that the playoffs are not the regular season.

[170] Well for one he didn’t have Joba in the pen in the regular season.  For two he wasn’t (as) willing to use Mo in the 8th inning.  For three he’s facing tougher offenses.  For four losing a game has bigger ramifications now than losing one in August, so sure he’ll manage it different.

My only complaint is I think he should be using Robertson earlier in the game.  I still think Hughes should “pitch the eighth”, since he’s been so successful plus if he falters you can go to Mo.  Robertson should get the 7th, though I’d be okay using a LOOGY in there for a batter (either first batter or after two outs).  Joba should be part of the rotation for pre-7th inning.

add hinske. having two speedy pinch runners is all well and good except for the fact that they get thrown out all the time. or are used to replace A-rod in the 7th inning.

Speaking of Robertson, I wonder what surprises Girardi’s book will have for us this series.

[173] Wrong thread…

[174] I don’t want to give it all away, but you’ll find that heavy use of Masonic symbology is prevalent…oh wait, that’s Dan Brown’s new book.  Nevermind.

Ah, you joke, but I happen to have it on very good authority that Girardi’s picture will be on a new US currency denomination if the Yankees win the WS.  That’s right, the $27 bill.

[170] Not having Joba in the pen all season is exactly why I am perplexed by Joba being at the top of the pecking order.  Of course the games are faaar more important… why would you want to see a giant question mark coming out of the pen in those important games?

Oops, meant to put [171], not [170].  Also, I agree with [171]

[177] Well he’s not top, he’s 3rd.  And I did mention I think Robertson should be ahead of him.  I’m happy with Joba ahead of Aceves/Gaudin/Bruney.