The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, October 26, 2009

2009 ALCS Run Values

I was thinking about the fact that CC Sabathia was named ALCS MVP over Alex Rodriguez, so I thought I should see if there was a way to compare their actual contributions. Then I figured I may as well do it for everyone who played in the ALCS, so here it is.

Name TEAM Pos PA/IP BR/Rsaa
Alex Rodriguez NYY 3B 29 5.72
CC Sabathia NYY SP 16.0 5.17
Jeff Mathis LAA C 12 3.25
Mariano Rivera NYY RP 7.0 2.14
Vladimir Guerrero LAA DH 28 2.01
Andy Pettitte NYY SP 12.7 1.68
Melky Cabrera NYY CF 26 1.37
Derek Jeter NYY SS 33 0.99
Johnny Damon NYY LF 31 0.95
David Robertson NYY RP 2.0 0.90
Howard Kendrick LAA 2B 15 0.86
Kevin Jepsen LAA RP 3.7 0.64
Damaso Marte NYY RP 1.3 0.60
Robinson Cano NYY 2B 27 0.56
Brett Gardner NYY CF 3 0.48
Chad Gaudin NYY RP 1.0 0.45
Torii Hunter LAA CF 28 0.43
Brian Fuentes LAA RP 3.0 0.34
Jorge Posada NYY C 25 0.31
Phil Coke NYY RP 0.7 0.30
Phil Hughes NYY RP 2.7 0.20
Jerry Hairston Jr. NYY 3B 2 0.13
Jason Bulger LAA RP 2.3 0.05
Reggie Willits LAA CF 0 0.00
Jose Molina NYY C 3 -0.09
Darren Oliver LAA RP 6.3 -0.16
Jered Weaver LAA SP 6.3 -0.16
Francisco Cervelli NYY C 1 -0.22
Freddy Guzman NYY LF 1 -0.22
Joba Chamberlain NYY RP 1.7 -0.25
Erick Aybar LAA SS 21 -0.33
Joe Saunders LAA SP 10.3 -0.37
Ervin Santana LAA RP 5.7 -0.46
Hideki Matsui NYY DH 26 -0.49
Gary Matthews LAA CF 5 -0.70
Maicer Izturis LAA 2B 11 -1.07
Alfredo Aceves NYY RP 1.3 -1.40
Mike Napoli LAA C 9 -1.41
John Lackey LAA SP 12.3 -1.47
Mark Teixeira NYY 1B 30 -1.60
Bobby Abreu LAA RF 29 -1.74
Kendry Morales LAA 1B 25 -1.89
Nick Swisher NYY RF 23 -2.15
Juan Rivera LAA LF 25 -2.27
A.J. Burnett NYY SP 12.3 -2.47
Matt Palmer LAA RP 2.7 -2.80
Chone Figgins LAA 3B 26 -2.81
Scott Kazmir LAA SP 4.7 -2.91


I still haven't found any place that is tracking postseason defense, so I'm just looking at offense and pitching. The last column is the runs above average for each player. In this case, for hitters, I'm comparing their linear weights batting runs per PA to the ALCS average. So if we look at Rodriguez, he created 9.2 BR(batting runs) in 29 PAs, compared to the ALCS average of 59.35 in 494 PA. (9.2/29 - 59.35/494) gives us how many BR per PA he was above average, then multiplying that by his actual PA (29) gives us a total. In this case, 5.72. I'm not adjusting for park or for position.

For pitchers, I'm just using ALCS average RA minus pitcher RA divided by nine to get the rate of runs allowed per IP, then multiplying by IP. So for CC, it's 4.03 minus 1.13 divided by nine, which gives us CC saving .323 runs per IP compared to the ALCS average. Multiply that by the 16 IP and we get 5.17 runs saved above average.

It's pretty interesting to see how much greater Mo's impact can be in the postseason, simply by virtue of the percentage of IP he is responsible for compared to the regular season. Factoring in leverage, you can probably go back through the years and make a case for Mo as MVP in several postseasons.
--Posted at 9:21 am by SG / 179 Comments | - (577)

Comments

Page 1 of 2 pages:  1 2 >

matsui is an interesting case for me, because NO ONE looks worse when they are going bad than he does…but there are times when he looks awesome.

[1] I think Damon looks worse when he’s bad.

Melky turned out to be the Yankees’ second ranked offensive player? Whoa. You really can’t predict baseball.

Question for anyone who understands the rules governing post-season rosters:

The Phillies can’t add Jeff Mathis, can they?

Any word on the WS rotation yet?  No extra off-days, right?  So, if CC goes 1,4,7, Burnett has to pitch on short-rest too.

I think I’d go Joba in game 4 and hope for the best, with a short leash and Gaudin waiting.  That sets up Andy for game 7, with CC available in relief on his normal throw day.

[5] - I’d go…

C.C. 1-4-7
A.J. 2-6
Pettitte 3
Gaudin 5

I might swap Pettitte and A.J. but I doubt it.

Short leashes are fine in the NL park.  All you really need is for the starter to go through the lineup twice.

[6]  Really?  You only pitch Pettitte once!?  He’s pretty clearly the 2nd best guy right now, and Phillie has tons of good lefties.

If you us CC 1,4,7 I think you have to go Pettitte 2,6, or Burnett 2,5 and Pettitte 3,6.

Gaudin is horseshit vs. lefties.  He will get crushed by Howard/Utley/Ibanez etc.  Joba at least has a shot.

[6] - Agree with that in the sense that I would much rather AJ make all of his starts at home and not have to pitch on the road in this series. But, only 1 start for Andy ? I have no problem with Andy taking one of CC’s starts, considering CC would be starting TWICE on three days rest.

“Gaudin 5 “

This just doesn’t work given 1) Gaudin vs. LH 2009 296/408/415, Career 293/389/433 and 2) LHB Howard, Utley, Ibanez and Switch Rollins, Victorino.

Chamberlain at least is platoon neutral.

Hmmm…this is actually really tough.

You can’t pitch Gaudin, can you? Lefties kill him. Meanwhile, you’d like to see Pettitte pitch twice.

Man…I have no clue, really, except I doubt that they’re going to do 1-4-7 for CC, although I wouldn’t mind it if they did!

Pettitte has to utilized so that he is available for a second start (if necessary).

“Pettitte has to utilized so that he is available for a second start (if necessary). “

Yes.  100%  He’s pitching better than Burnett, and has the crucial platoon advantage against Phillies lefty hordes.

What is the Phillies rotation looking like over the course of their upcoming 4 game sweep ?

Pettitte should also be used in Yankee Stadium when considering Utley, Howard and Ibanez.

I think the rotation should be

1 - CC
2 - AJ
3 - BC
4 - CC
5 - AJ
6 - BC
7 - CC

where BC=Battle Cat.

I think both AJ and Andy can handle pitching once on 3 days rest, and CC can handle doing it twice.

And if there are any problems with length from any of the starters, the Yankees have a deep enough bullpen that you’d feel comfortable (though not thrilled) if they needed 12 outs from it.

Everyone on 3 days rest then?

[8] If I’m counting right, Pettite would be on 3 days rest if he pitched game 2, so it seems unlikely they’d start him over a fully rested AJ.

[17] Yeah, I think so.

I suppose it opens Girardi up to a lot of second guessing, but I’ll take AJ or Andy on 3 days rest over Joba or Gaudin, especially, as everyone has been saying, against the lefty-leaning Phils.

[1] A Mr. Posada is on the line for you. Something about begging to differ.

I like everyone on 3 days rest.  It also might leave the media confused on whether or not to support the Yankee’s old schoolness or to hand wring about injury.

The only thing I dont like about the above proposed rotation is BattleCat on 3 days rest. We now CC can handle it. AJ is a headcase so his performance on 3 days rest rather than 4 will have more to do with random luck than anything. But Pettitte on 3 days worries me.

I guess its better than Gaudin or Joba and it probably wont matter since the Phillies will wrap this up quickly (according to Kruk).

It’s extremely difficult to argue against using CC three times.  It’s also hard to argue against saving Pettitte for the hostile road environment and potentially enormous leverage of game 3.  I might be inclined to leave Gaudin off the roster for this round if there was another plausible LOOGY available.  Chamberlain just might be the game 5 starter, folks.

As for the Phils rotation, they’re being coy about it, but I’d guess Lee, Martinez, Hamels, Blanton.

Have we locked in “team of the decade”?  Going into the postseason, you could make an argument for the Yanks, Sox, and Cards, but now it HAS to be the Yanks, right?

Can Gaudin and Marte play the outfield?  You could rotate them for righties and lefties for the first couple of innings, then pinch hit for both of them first time up.

[4] - One of the things Scoscia was getting killed by the sabre community before the ALCS was for his overuse of the weak-hitting Mathis, but Mathis turns out as responsible as anyone else in the Angel’s lineup for extending the series to six.  Kinda like the debate over Posada and Molina.  Good thing for us Jorgie was able to put that whole issue to bed with his outstanding performance in the field, at the plate, and on the basepaths.

Can we drop Cervelli from the roster now? (I’d prefer dropping Molina but know it won’t happen). Also, get rid of Guzman. You don’t need two pinch runners, especially in an NL park. Hinske, Hairston, Gardner, Pena…Duncan?

I’d have to give Sox TOD because of their historical significance this decade.

If game 4 is CC—>Mo game 5 could be Joba 3 / Aceves 3 / Hughes 3 with a dash of Robertson.  With Matsui, Hinske, and CC as available pinch hitters.

[24] Pretty sure the Yanks have to win the WS.  If not, Sox and Phillies would both have 2.

It’s kind of ridiculous that they won 103 games and don’t have a viable fourth starter.

Going into the postseason, you could make an argument for the Yanks, Sox, and Cards, but now it HAS to be the Yanks, right?

Except that Red Sox apologists are all about counting the ringz all of a sudden, so they’d argue that the Yankees need to win the series to clinch TOTD.

I don’t really go for the whole team of the decade thing except when a team truly dominates with essentially the same core group of players.  But given the amount of roster turnover for all the contenders, this is really about “franchise of the aughts” and that just doesn’t excite me all that much.

There is no way guzman remains on the roster.

I’m not really sure anyone other than the Yanks would be worthy to be called TOD. Spotty resumes all around. If the Yanks win this one, they’ve got it hands down.

[27] I’m pretty sure they’ll add Hinske.  Playing at least two games sans DH, pinch hitting becomes much more likely and important than pinch running.

[31] They have plenty of viable fourth starters.  They wouldn’t have won all those games if they didn’t.  They just don’t have a fourth starter that inspires much confidence in a World Series game.

The problem with Phillies for TOTD is that they didn’t play a postseason game until 2007.

“Can we drop Cervelli from the roster now? (I’d prefer dropping Molina but know it won’t happen). Also, get rid of Guzman. You don’t need two pinch runners, especially in an NL park. Hinske, Hairston, Gardner, Pena…Duncan?”

Unfortunatley we don’t have 2 guys worth adding.

“If game 4 is CC—>Mo game 5 could be Joba 3 / Aceves 3 / Hughes 3 with a dash of Robertson”

If you have to use Joba as a SP, which I think you do, better to use him in game 4 and have CC on full rest twicw, and available in relief for game 7.

I go CC, AJ, Andy, Joba(+Hughes for 2-3 IP), CC, AJ, Andy(+CC/Mo)

[26] Scoscahia didn’t look to good continually using Matthews as a big spot pinch hitter, especially considering who he pinch hit for.

Too bad IPK didn’t make it back to the majors this year.

[16] AJ = BC, no?

[38]  I turned to my wife last night when Matthews came up and said, “I can’t believe the Angels are going to let their season end with Gary Matthews Jr. at the plate!”

Yeah, the Yankees need to win the World Series to get Team of the Decade.

However, if the Phillies win, while they have a good case for Team of the Decade, I think it would have to go to the Sox.

So one more reason why the Yankees need to win the Series! smile

I know he has looked terrible in the bullpen, but as a starter, would Aceves be much worse as an option than Joba?

I don’t really have a problem with Joba getting a game in the World Series (the Phllies might be pitching Pedro Martinez in Game 2, for crying out loud!), but it seems like he’s being locked into the bullpen role, and in THAT case, I’d prefer Aceves over Gaudin.

I don’t know if I see the Yankees passing up on the advantage of CC being able to pitch on 3 days rest, though.

So if they don’t, then we’d seriously be looking at a scenario of Pettitte only pitching once, and that just sounds so wrong.

Is there some official ‘Team of the Decade’ award I haven’t heard of, or was it invented about halfway through this complaint thread? Phillies in 4.

If you have to use Joba as a SP, which I think you do, better to use him in game 4 and have CC on full rest twicw, and available in relief for game 7.

OTOH, there’s a day off after game five, so maybe you’d rather have that be the one where you plan on Hughes and Rivera for 2 innings each.

Unfortunatley we don’t have 2 guys worth adding.

One thing the Yankees could have really used last series was a solid RH bat off the bench.  Unfortunately, the only one they have they *could* put on the roster is Duncan, and he hasn’t played in almost a month.  And it is obviously questionable just how much impact he would be. 

I’d take Pena and Hinske for the next round.  Having a second backup IF could come in handy, and though Pena isn’t as fast as Guzman he’s still fine as a PR for most players.  Hinske provides an actual PH option.

I might be inclined to leave Gaudin off the roster for this round if there was another plausible LOOGY available.

Michael Dunn I think is eligible, and he appears to have some decent splits in the minors.

It just came to me in a flash—secret plan to start David Robertson!

Are the Phils as fundamentally sound as the Halos and Twinkies?

[46] I think Dunn is eligible, and he might actually do just fine given the opportunity.  But I don’t think it’s plausible that they’d add him at this point.

Is there some official ‘Team of the Decade’ award I haven’t heard of, or was it invented about halfway through this complaint thread?

I’ve heard/read it bandied about a few times in the past month.  MSM likes labels of this sort - e.g. Jack Morris was the “pitcher of the decade” for the 80’s, though he really wasn’t.  I have no problems with these labels, as long as they praise the Yanks of course.  Yeah, if Yanks win they’re definitely TOD; 2 series, 4 pennants, (I think) most wins/playoff appearances.  If they lose they’ll still probably be most deserving, but it will go to the Sox.

<strike>Phillies</strike>Yankees in 4

That will make all this arguing over who should pitch when moot, wouldn’t it?

[48] Of course not.  They hit far too many home runs to be fundamentally sound.

As I reflect on what worried me the most prior to the ALCS, the most surprising development had to be the way the Yankees handled the fast guys and for the most part didn’t let them run wild. The best way of doing that is keeping them off base which they did very well.  Speed really didn’t influence the outcome very much on either side.

Angels will look different in the near future.  Could be a lot of different faces next season for better or worse.

I would limit the starting to three players and bring in Gaudin early if Pettitte or AJ falter.

“I know he has looked terrible in the bullpen, but as a starter, would Aceves be much worse as an option than Joba? “

Yes, yes he is.

Joba has the stuff to give you 5 strong.  It just depends if he shows up with his head on straight.  I think he might just rise to the occasion.

In any case, you’d have Aceves right behind him, and then Hughes and Robertson.

You’re facing Joe Blanton, so it’s not like we need 8 IP, 1 R.  If Joba can give you 5 IP 2-3 R, and then Aceves/Robertson/Hughes can give you 3 IP 1-2 R, I think the Yankees bats take the game.

If you start Gaudin or Aceves against that lineup I forsee being down 6-2 after 2.

“I don’t really have a problem with Joba getting a game in the World Series (the Phllies might be pitching Pedro Martinez in Game 2, for crying out loud!), but it seems like he’s being locked into the bullpen role, and in THAT case, I’d prefer Aceves over Gaudin.”

On this point, starting game 4 should not preclude Joba pitching in relief in games 1-2 and 6-7.  It’s the freaking World Series.  Rest in November.

[40] Battle Cat is Andy Pettite’s nickname (on this site), I believe.  I’m not sure why, but because CC and AJ can be penciled in by their initials, I decided to do the same for Andy.

[49] Yeah I think for pitching the only question is if they swap Bruney in for someone.  I suppose they could go another route and realize Gaudin was used only once - and I think that was a courtesy - in the series and remove him entirely.  That would let them keep Cervelli and add Pena and Hinkse, dropping Guzman.  Or add Hinske and keep Guzman.

The only change I see though is dropping Guzman and adding Hinske.  Another side-effect of those drawn-out series is Hinske is the only candidate to have seen game action in the last 4 weeks.

[55] I thought Burnett’s nickname was Battle Cat? My memory could be failing me.

In my fantasy world where I control the roster:

Drop Molina, add Hinske
Drop Guzman, add Pena

Michael Dunn throws hard and can only occasionally hit the broad side of a barn.  2 LOOGYs should be enough.

I wish they could get BattleCat 2 starts.  But unless my math is off, that cannot happen w/o him pitching on short rest.  I don’t see that happening.  Thus CC pitches in games 1, 4 and 7 (I.N.), AJ pitches 2 and 6 (I.N.), Pettitte pitches game 3, and the great questionmark starts game 4.

Chad Gaudin, game 4 WS starter.  Yikes.  But having thought it through, that’s probably the least worst option.

I’m assuming Cervelli stays as NL games, Molina might start, and Cervelli runs ok.

It just came to me in a flash—secret plan to start David Robertson!

I actually kind of love that idea.

Doesn’t it seem strange to be playing several of these games in November should it go long?  It doesn’t bother me but it will generate a lot of complaints from casual observers, for whom I have no regard. 

Gaudin to his credit with the large lead in the 10-1 game came right in and didn’t do a Bruney. He got three straight outs when he hadn’t pitched in two weeks. I’m not for starting him, but he may be a better option than Ace in high leverage. It’s hard to gauge, but Girardi should get him some work. And what in the world does Robertson need to do to get some attention?

Reviewed the boxes from the last time (only time in 06) that Yanks played at Citizens. I had forgotten they (Yanks)won 2 of 3. Bernie had a 5-5 in one game. B Myers beat them one game and of course he won the Friday game in NYS this summer.

Molina starting WS games…

Melky-Molina-Pitcher.  All hail WOE.

AJ has gone into “battle mode” on numerous occasions, leading to his sometimes being elevated to temporary Battle Cat status.  But Pettitte is the original BC.

[63] So, what you’re saying is.. we have two Battle Cats? That can’t be good for Phillies fans.

Melky-Molina-Pitcher.  All hail WOE.

Melky has shown he can get hot for stretches, and he’s hot right now.  Hopefully he can continue this for two more weeks.

Yes, we have two Battle Cats, but only when BC II doesn’t go psycho and BC I doesn’t go all 2001 WS on us.

They could start Swisher in game 4.  He’s been hitting like a pitcher.

Here is Dave Cameron’s take on whether Girardi should start AJ, Pettitte, and CC on 3 days rest:

I think he should.  The upside is really high, while I think the risk isn’t that significant - if Burnett or Pettitte struggle, you’ll have Chamberlain/Gaudin available out of the pen early, which isn’t that different from just starting them outright.

“which isn’t that different from just starting them outright”

Except in that case the team wouldn’t be down 4 runs.

I’m betting Molina doesn’t start any games in the WS

Probably the best thing is to go CC, AJ, Pettitte for the first three and go from there.  If down start CC; you don’t want to be eliminated with your best pitcher sitting, and don’t want to go down 3-1 on the road.  If you’re up 3-0 start CC; just end it right there.  The question mark I guess is if you are up 2-1.  Start CC to win and have Phillies facing elimination?  Or start Gaudin/Joba and hope to win, with worst case having fully-rest CC, AJ, Pettitte to win 2 of last 3 games?  Regardless, no reason to make the decision until after game 3.

“Regardless, no reason to make the decision until after game 3.”

Well, what else are we going to talk about?

Joba over Hughes last night lucky or smart?

I’m betting Molina doesn’t start any games in the WS

He shouldn’t make the roster. Run with Cervelli as the backup.

If Molina starts AJ has to be pitching game 2. No way should they lose both Posada’s and Zombie’s bats for a game.

Congratulations guys. Well done taking down the Angels of Los Anaheim. There is little doubt about who the best team was in the AL this year.

Get ready for a dogfight next round. This should be a pretty competitive WS, which from an outsider’s POV is a nice change. Enjoy…

Thankee, SSF.

Yeah, I have a feeling we’ll have our first long WS since 2003.

Man, from 2001-2003 there were 20 out of 21 potential WS games played. Since then we’ve had three sweeps and two five gamers.

BTW, game 1 is going to be annoying as hell for Indians fans, no?

BTW, game 1 is going to be annoying as hell for Indians fans, no?

I think baseball is annoying as hell for Indians fans.

Well, what else are we going to talk about?

Okay, I’ve got nothing.  Can we complain about football?

BTW, game 1 is going to be annoying as hell for Indians fans, no?

*Are* there any Indians fans?

WFAN just played audio highlights of Stephan Matteau’s goal. Fuckers!

Now that they got Manny Acta their future is unlimited

Melky-Molina-Pitcher.

Anyone else excited at the prospect of watching CC bat?

[85] Yes.

Anyone else excited at the prospect of watching CC bat?

In today’s NY Times, Dan Rosenheck argues (well sort of) that CC should start games 1 and 5 and relieve “in any number of other games.”  Putting aside the rather obvious fact that starting games 1 and 5 would pretty clearly rule out relieving in games 2 or 4, how cool would it be to see Sabathia pinch hit for Pettitte in the seventh inning of game 3 and stay in to pitch the bottom half?

[87] From a Phillies perspective, it would be great, as that would mean that CC isn’t warming up in the bullpen before pitching. Still, a cold CC is better than just about anyone warmed up that could come out of the Phillies bullpen.

Anyone found any Phillies counterparts to “Gohalos” yet?

I turned to my wife last night when Matthews came up and said, “I can’t believe the Angels are going to let their season end with Gary Matthews Jr. at the plate!”

Do we really need to know about your erotic life, Mike?

Other important points from the Frog.

Yes, CC in 1-4-7.  The Big 3 on short rest all series.  Pettitte’s the only one you worry about, but you’d worry more if Joba started.  Also don’t forget all the games postponed due to weather.

Joba was a decent MLB 4th starter this year. But he’s been bad for over a month.

I am very excited to see Pedro pitching against the Yankees in the WS.

Phillies in 2.

The team of the decade thing was around in the 90s and Sterling may have had something to do with it. I remember his call (its on the official highlight video of the series) from the 99 WS and he ends it with, “ball game over, World Series over, team of the decade, team of the century…”

One of the few times his hyperbole felt appropriate.

Sterling didn’t start that.  It was played up pretty big before the series started.  There was a press conference where Schuerholz discussed it at some length.  Paraphrasing Cashman’s response: “Aren’t we pretty much already the team of the century?”

[88] Why couldn’t he warm up the inning before the pitcher’s spot was due up?  And how would that be any different from what he does in six or seven out of every eight innings he pitches as a starter?

[85] Other than Mo potentially getting ANOTHER RBI, there is nothing that excites me more.

If Mo gets an RBI or CC goes yard, I will go Bam Bam Funkhouser.

As for Pettitte, he is THE BattleCat, and much like the highlander there can be only one. AJ does battle but those battles are usually preludes to implosions.

There’s this: http://www.thegoodphight.com/

Maybe a smidge smarter than HalosHeaven, but just as big assholes.

I have work to do but I just can’t stop reading everything there is to read

Mark Mcgwire named Cardinal’s new nuitrition er hitting coach.

[94]  Overall, those commenters seem waaaaaaay smarter than those at HalosHeaven.  For example, one posits that the core of Jeter/A-Rod/Teix is better than the core of Utley/Howard/Werth, though close, and another comes back to show that yes, the Yankee core mentioned comes in with a higher WAR/650 PAs.  Part of this exchange was a reference to BP having a 55% chance that the Yanks would win, and general nodding that it sounded about right, with admissions of Phillies picks to win being biased/affected by fanboyism.  They seem to overgeneralize Yankee fans as boorish, but then again, who doesn’t?  HalosHeaven had nothin’ like that going on.

Yeah, you’re right. But there is a bunch of umpire-conspiracying going on. And they weren’t even playing!!!

I did notice there were a few people at halosheaven that seemed ok. A couple people admonished the majority who were blaming the umps. One guy simply said,“it’s fitting the season would end with GMJ at the plate.”

They were clearly in the extreme minority, but not everyone there was awful. Not that it is going to stop me from trolling there in the offseason (thinking about suggesting trading Hunter and making GMJ the starting CF because GMJ plays the game the right way and doesnt hit rally killing HR)

[99]“Not that it is going to stop me from trolling there in the offseason (thinking about suggesting trading Hunter and making GMJ the starting CF because GMJ plays the game the right way and doesnt hit rally killing HR)”

While you’re at it, troll USS Mariner about trading Cano, a RP and IPK for Felix Hernandez.  He had a ludicrous Jose Lopez + crap for John Danks trade suggestion that I sparred with him on.  He was not gracious.

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