Wednesday, October 3, 2007
2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part Three
Today I conclude my ALDS preview with a look at the Yankee and Indian bullpens. First up, here's the Indians' pen.| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| Closer | Borowski | 2007 | 69 | 65.7 | 77 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 17 | 58 | .289 | .315 | .436 |
| Proj | 60 | 59 | 60 | 8 | 31 | 30 | 21 | 50 | .261 | .305 | .415 | ||
| Setup | Betancourt | 2007 | 68 | 79.3 | 51 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 80 | .183 | .197 | .277 |
| Proj | 60 | 69 | 55 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 69 | .215 | .235 | .332 | ||
| Middle | Laffey | 2007 | 9 | 49.3 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 25 | .287 | .338 | .388 |
| Proj | 37 | 205 | 233 | 19 | 120 | 111 | 12 | 25 | .279 | .287 | .412 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | 44 | 60.7 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 62 | .187 | .229 | .292 | |
| Proj | 33 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42 | .190 | .235 | .297 | ||
| Fultz | 2007 | 49 | 37 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 28 | .228 | .304 | .346 | |
| Proj | 57 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 44 | .245 | .302 | .388 | ||
| Mastny | 2007 | 51 | 57.7 | 63 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 52 | .283 | .336 | .435 | |
| Proj | 36 | 40 | 43 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 36 | .282 | .337 | .422 | ||
| Lewis | 2007 | 26 | 29.3 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 34 | .234 | .288 | .315 | |
| Proj | 26 | 115 | 121 | 15 | 57 | 56 | 43 | 93 | .261 | .321 | .415 | ||
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | ||
| Closer | Borowski | 2007 | 36% | 31% | 19% | 5.34 | 5.07 | 3.90 | 3.56 | 85 | 146 | 116 | -.067 |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 17% | 4.82 | 4.61 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 95 | 124 | 117 | -.012 | ||
| Setup | Betancourt | 2007 | 29% | 37% | 19% | 1.48 | 1.48 | 2.07 | 2.74 | 190 | 274 | 162 | .419 |
| Proj | 30% | 37% | 19% | 2.68 | 2.55 | 2.42 | 2.59 | 141 | 255 | 155 | .261 | ||
| Middle | Laffey | 2007 | 64% | 15% | 17% | 4.75 | 4.56 | 3.69 | 3.88 | 272 | 147 | 71 | -.022 |
| Proj | 64% | 15% | 17% | 6.92 | 6.40 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 118 | 607 | 17 | -1.364 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | 55% | 20% | 17% | 2.22 | 1.78 | 2.87 | 2.55 | 124 | 134 | 154 | .381 | |
| Proj | 55% | 22% | 16% | 2.51 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 3.03 | 121 | 133 | 160 | .297 | ||
| Fultz | 2007 | 37% | 35% | 22% | 2.92 | 2.92 | 3.77 | 4.57 | 208 | 75 | 104 | .150 | |
| Proj | 40% | 31% | 20% | 3.80 | 3.56 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 146 | 101 | 113 | .098 | ||
| Mastny | 2007 | 44% | 29% | 19% | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.05 | 3.96 | 115 | 70 | 116 | .004 | |
| Proj | 45% | 28% | 20% | 4.83 | 4.83 | 4.41 | 4.00 | 133 | 90 | 120 | -.015 | ||
| Lewis | 2007 | 36% | 33% | 18% | 2.46 | 2.15 | 2.35 | 3.17 | 328 | 107 | 159 | .282 | |
| Proj | 36% | 33% | 18% | 4.45 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 90 | 101 | 107 | .128 |
AVG: Opponents' batting average against
OBP: Opponents' on base percentage against
SLG: Opponents' slugging against
GB%: Groundball percentage
FB%: Fly ball percentage
LD%: Line drive percentage
ERA: Earned run average
ERC: Component ERA (31 times OBP times SLG)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
HR+: HRs per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
BB+: BBs per batters faced compared to league average 100 is average, > 100 is better
K+: Ks per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
RS/G: Runs saved per game compared to league average
Despite an ERA over 5, Joe Borowski racked up 45 saves. Borowski's peripherals are actually better than you'd expect by looking at his ERA. Opponents are hitting .289/.315/.436 against him, which translates to a component ERA of 3.90. His FIP is also decent at 3.56.
He's appeared in 69 games and allowed 37 earned runs. However, 14 of those runs came in just three appearances, April 19 against the Yanks, May 13 against Oakland and August 14 against Detroit. If you remove those three outings from his ledger, you get a more respectable 3.23 ERA. Of course you can play that game with anyone, but Borowski's not as bad as it first appears.
Borowski isn't the main reason to be concerned about the Indians bullpen. They have Rafael Betancourt setting him up, and he's been flat out dominant all season. His HR+, BB+, and K+ are all off the charts good. Opponents hit .183/.197/.277 against him this season. He's probably pitching over his head, but he's been a solid reliever for a few years now (career ERA of 2.80).
The other primary reason that the Indians' bullpen should concern us as Yankee fans are the lefties they'll be carrying.
Their primary lefty reliever is Rafael Perez. He throws a 92-94 mph fastball and a nasty slider, and has been nasty this season. He's not just a lefty killer, as he's pitched 60.2 innings in 44 games after getting called up from Buffalo where he was a starter. Betancourt and Perez are a sick combo to set up Borowski.
Aaron Fultz has bounced around a bit, and has been fairly pedestrian, but he has done well against lefties.
The third lefty that the Indians will carry in the bullpen is Aaron Laffey, who they've used exclusively as a starter. His splits against lefties aren't very good, but as the third man on the depth chart that shouldn't matter that much since he probably wouldn't have to be used in high-leverage situations.
Here's how the three lefties splits look for 2007 and over their careers.
| Pitcher | Split | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Fultz | 2007 | vs RHB | 79 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 | .265 | .342 | .353 |
| vs LHB | 79 | 68 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | .191 | .291 | .338 | ||
| Career | vs RHB | 1227 | 1072 | 295 | 65 | 7 | 39 | 121 | 223 | .275 | .350 | .458 | |
| vs LHB | 830 | 728 | 172 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 66 | 171 | .236 | .303 | .349 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | vs RHB | 144 | 136 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 40 | .217 | .257 | .324 |
| vs LHB | 92 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22 | .145 | .209 | .241 | ||
| Career | vs RHB | 173 | 162 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 48 | .222 | .272 | .352 | |
| vs LHB | 119 | 106 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | .142 | .214 | .217 | ||
| Laffey | 2007 | vs RHB | 139 | 129 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | .271 | .304 | .357 |
| vs LHB | 68 | 59 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | .322 | .412 | .458 |
Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis round out the Indians pen. Mastny's nothing special. Lewis has been great in his major league debut but his projections coming into the season weren't very impressive.
Overall this season, Cleveland's bullpen ranked fourth in the AL in ERA at 3.75. Late inning comebacks will be hard to come by in this series for the Yankees.
Here's the Yankee pen minus the 11th pitcher that they will announce at some point.
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| Closer | Rivera | 2007 | 67 | 71.3 | 68 | 4 | 25 | 25 | 12 | 74 | .248 | .285 | .350 |
| Proj | 67 | 75 | 62 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 69 | .224 | .263 | .300 | ||
| Setup | Chamberlain | 2007 | 19 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 34 | .145 | .200 | .229 |
| Proj | 44 | 49 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 63 | .180 | .245 | .279 | ||
| Middle | Vizcaino | 2007 | 77 | 75.3 | 66 | 6 | 38 | 37 | 44 | 62 | .235 | .301 | .384 |
| Proj | 72 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 35 | 61 | .237 | .300 | .398 | ||
| Farnsworth | 2007 | 64 | 60 | 60 | 9 | 35 | 32 | 27 | 48 | .256 | .327 | .415 | |
| Proj | 69 | 64 | 58 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 67 | .237 | .309 | .376 | ||
| Villone | 2007 | 37 | 42.3 | 36 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 25 | .234 | .324 | .344 | |
| Proj | 57 | 66 | 59 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 36 | 54 | .241 | .327 | .367 | ||
| Hughes | 2007 | 13 | 73 | 64 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 29 | 58 | .235 | .310 | .386 | |
| Proj | 13 | 73 | 67 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 26 | 59 | .246 | .310 | .397 | ||
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | ||
| Closer | Rivera | 2007 | 53% | 21% | 19% | 3.16 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 2.64 | 194 | 210 | 147 | .184 |
| Proj | 56% | 21% | 15% | 2.43 | 2.25 | 2.45 | 2.58 | 265 | 209 | 139 | .281 | ||
| Setup | Chamberlain | 2007 | 38% | 28% | 24% | 0.75 | 0.38 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 255 | 144 | 229 | .556 |
| Proj | 38% | 28% | 24% | 2.02 | 1.84 | 2.12 | 2.40 | 172 | 104 | 188 | .333 | ||
| Middle | Vizcaino | 2007 | 37% | 34% | 20% | 4.54 | 4.42 | 3.98 | 4.41 | 147 | 65 | 108 | .018 |
| Proj | 42% | 31% | 17% | 4.12 | 3.99 | 3.71 | 4.10 | 92 | 58 | 115 | .064 | ||
| Farnsworth | 2007 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 5.25 | 4.80 | 4.90 | 4.88 | 78 | 84 | 106 | -.056 | |
| Proj | 36% | 35% | 18% | 4.43 | 4.09 | 3.61 | 4.04 | 99 | 85 | 146 | .030 | ||
| Villone | 2007 | 37% | 31% | 22% | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.83 | 4.65 | 92 | 83 | 83 | .058 | |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 19% | 4.93 | 4.52 | 3.72 | 4.54 | 123 | 74 | 113 | -.028 | ||
| Hughes | 2007 | 38% | 32% | 22% | 4.83 | 4.46 | 3.72 | 4.31 | 108 | 84 | 115 | -.073 | |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 22% | 4.31 | 3.98 | 3.82 | 4.04 | 101 | 100 | 113 | .249 |
Unlike the Indians, the Yankees don't have depth in their bullpen. Mariano Rivera had a down year by his lofty standards, but he was still very effective, and his peripherals are all solid. He gave up more line drives this year, and more hits in general, but there's no reason to be concerned about him.
Joba Chamberlain. Man, myth, legend. We like Joba so much we sponsored his Baseball Reference page. The Joba rules are out the window for the postseason with the importance of the games and the added off days, so expect to see him late in any games the Yankees are leading.
It's been a tale of three seasons for Luis Vizcaino. From April 2 through June 2, Vizcaino pitched 27 innings and had an ERA of 7.33. Opponents hit .248/.381/.436 against him. From June 3 to August 29 Vizcaino pitched 40.1 innings with 1.12 ERA. He fanned 37 while opponents hit .181/.268/.264 against him. In September he struggled due to fatigue and was shut down several times. In 8 September innings he allowed 15 hits and had an ERA of 10.13, and opponents hit .417/.464/.722. Hopefully the rest he's getting now will get him back to form.
Phil Hughes will be the primary long reliever in the bullpen, likely to pick up the slack should one of the starters get bombed. Hughes has not pitched out of the pen yet. He showed glimpses of the promise that he had in the minors over his last five outings, throwing 29.2 innings with an ERA of 2.73. Hughes beat Cleveland on Aug 10, going six strong innings and allowing just one run.
Kyle Farnsworth scares me. Thankfully, Chamberlain's emergence has removed him from the nominal 8th inning role. Ron Villone scares me too, although less so than Farnsworth. Villone was actually decent this year overall, he held opponents to a .234/.324/.344 and put up an ERA around league average. He really had only two bad outings this year, where he gave 8 runs over 2/3 of an inning. If we could take those out, he'd have had an ERA of 2.59. But we can't, so he doesn't.
I'm not sure who the sixth man will be. Based on usage patterns over the last week of the season I think it's going to be Jose Veras. I'm not sold on him because of his lack of command, but his stuff is pretty good so maybe he could surprise us. Edwar Ramirez looks like he's pitched his way off the roster. I still like Ramirez's chances of contributing in the future, but I don't think he's ready yet. Ross Ohlendorf could end up being the choice, and that's probably who I'd like to see go. He had an unimpressive season in AAA but he has looked good in the big league pen, with a good sinking fastball and a sharp slider, and he has better command than Veras.
The Yankee bullpen struggled most of the year, and were tenth in the league in ERA.
This is going to be a tough series for the Yankees to take. The Yankees are the better offensive team, but the Indians have better pitching. The defenses are comparable. I think it's going to be up to the Yankee starting pitchers getting deep enough in the games that they can go to Vizcaino, Chamberlain, and Mo. If that happens the Yanks should be in good shape. I won't predict what might happen, because I have no idea. After the way this season started, I'm just glad to see the Yanks playing in October right now. I'm sure I'll feel differently after the first pitch on Thursday though.
Comments
I was cautiously optimistic for Farnsworth since he started throwing from the windup (although Bruney tried this trick, and it seemed to work for him for like 1 day) but then he tweaked his hip in the last game against Baltimore and proceeded to immediately give up a HR. However, if you’re talking about your 4th bullpen guy, I suppose things could be worse. Instead of having an average pitcher there, we have a guy with equal flashes of dominance and catastrophe, which end up averaging out to a just below average pitcher. Let’s hope the dominant one shows up. As for Villone and whoever else is in the pen (aside from Hughes), I think the one unforgivable thing is going to be walks.. if those guys get in the game they have to throw strikes. Nothing will infuriate me more than lead off walks in the 7th, 8th and 9th.
I’m not really concerned about the bullpen or offense, or even the indians. I’m just concerned about the 500 server error.
i sense nothing but fear on this blog over the last week and it is ridiculous. You cowardly yankee fans need to put your balls on the line and declare victory because nobody will stop us. Stop second guessing…the playoffs did not start yet.
That’s right, Jeter is King is going to show up here any minute and wipe the floor with all of this blog’s pusillanimous pussyfooters.
Ok then, dcristal and IE, how’s this (from the guy who, below, picked the Red Sox, based purely on the numbers).
F*ck conventional wisdom on pitching and defense in the playoffs. Somebody has to come along and take a bat to that wisdom, and we’re the team to do it. Conventional wisdom says that good hitters’ numbers go down in the postseason because they’re facing much better pitching. Well, that’s just stupid, because the same logic goes the other way: good pitchers’ numbers are going to go up when they face better hitting! Right?! And I’ve got numbers to back it up. Take a look at run differential. So our pitching is suspect. Our hitting is nonetheless so friggin’ good that our run differential is nearly double Cleveland’s (+191 to +107), and second only to Bos (+210) in all of baseball.
So guess what Cleveland (and Bos, and Cubbies)? We’re going to bludgeon the sh*t out of all of you on a nightly basis for the next three weeks or so.
There, is that better?
Gllllllllllluuuuuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrpppppppppppppppppp!
(That’s the sound of my attempt to participate in kind but instead choking on my own testosterone.)
Go Yankees.
The last time I was really confident going into a playoff series, the Yanks got bounced in 4 games, with the vaunted offense doing very little in the 3 losses.
It’s a simple game. You hit the ball. You catch the ball. You throw the ball. Hopefully, the Yankees do those things well (and a few other things besides) and win. They’re going to need to, because the Indians are a damned good team.
I’m already preparing for a 2008 where the Yankees try for a ‘98 impression. Bah, anything can happen in the playoffs, and so I’m preapred for anything.
If we lose, I’m blaming the horrible umpiring this year.
Does anyone know if BP does a postseason series predictor?
Or, SG, are you going to run each ALDS?
Diamond Mind did projections already, they’re posted here.
As unpredictable as the outcome of the regular season can be, luck plays an even greater role in a short series. Nevertheless, the results of our simulations project the Yankees and Red Sox as heavy favorites to face off again in the League Championship Series.
The Yankees won 572 of the 1,000 series against the Indians, with the most frequent outcome being the Yankees in four games:
“It’s a simple game. You hit the ball. You catch the ball. You throw the ball.”
Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.
Mike and Mad Dog announced Yankee lineup and Matsui is DHing instead of Duncan. Everything else as expected. I don’t like it. Lefties are barely hitting over 200 against Sabathia, Matsui has not had a great September and has a bad knee. I get the feeling that Torre is more loathe to sit Matsui then anyone else as if it sold be a blow to his honor. He was willing to bat Arod 8th but not sit Matsui.
Veras and Ohlendorf on roster, no Villone. I’m not crazy about Villone but I would have included him on the roster.
You are correct Bebop. Also announced was no Villone . Veras and Ohlly in .
“sold be a blow to his honor”-should read would be
world’s worst typist
Crikey I type slow.
Dougie-M over Duncan? Oh for crying out loud Torre, is 1st base defense the most important element in baseball or something?
I shouldn’t even bother watching the first game.
At least you didn’t have him selling blow.
For better or worse it’s no surprise that Men K is starting and unless he has an extended 0fer will probably start all the games. My guess is if they bench Men K it will be for Giambi and only then with a fly ball pitcher on the mound.
Good one Thurm
3-2 Rock candys , top of the sixth.
I reaaly really wanted Duncan in the lineup and I didn’t care whether it was for MenK, Abreu, Damon or Matsui.
What’s he on the roster for? Torre almost never pinch-hits for his regulars, so it’s not like he’s going to be a weapon when Perez is brought in to face Abreu in the 8th.
Prove me wrong, Joe. Prove . . . me . . . wrong.
Flash Gordon just gave up a bomb in the playoffs. I remember that movie.
I think my feelings regarding this series is mostly based on how I felt last year. I was very confident last year, and they were spanked. So how can any of us possibly be THAT confident this year?
I guess we DO have Joba - that part is awesome. 
Minky-Dinky-Do is starting because Chien-Ming the Merciless will be on the mound inducing many thousands of ground balls.
Not saying it’s the right move, but it’s defensible. I would’ve started Percy Bysshe over Gojira, but that’s why they don’t pay me the big bucks….
The pen numbers for Cleveland scared the s**t out of me until I remembered that the unbalanced schedule and the woeful offense of the White Sox (ranked last in many offensive categories), the Twins (ranked second to last in team SLG & HRs) & the Royals (again, ranked 13th & 14th in a bunch of offensive categories).
Was that a function of Cleveland’s pen or the pen’s perfomance due in part to the ineptitude of these three offenses in 57 games this year? I am guessing the latter.
Next entry: Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Torre announces lineup for Game 1
Previous entry: My Postseason Predictions
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