Boy, smart girls are tough to impress. I desperately need some tips. On a sidenote, nice post SG.

SG, you’re the best.

A.Phil, I find that intelligent women always get highly aroused when I tell them I post to a sabermetrically-inclined comment board.

Why do I get the sinking feeling that Ron Villone is going to give up a key homer to Travis Halfner during this series because Torre wants to use him as the LOOGY?

Hopefully, the Yanks will sweep in three blowouts.

SG, they don’t pay you enough for this.

Amazing, SG.
I didn’t realize the Tribe had such a complete lineup.  I was really surprised Barfield didn’t pan out this year.  The guy was almost 20-20 last year in Petco in about 3/4 of a season and I figured he would ultimately slot between Sizemore and Hafner, which coming into this year looked to be about the best lineup spot in baseball.
Also, Joba’s adjusted ERA+ this year was 1156.  Yeah.

Regular readers know what this means. It’s time for some charts!

Sweet.  :::sees no pie charts::: Damn.

Nice job.  Looking forward to the all important pitching matchups.

SG, you get paid for this?

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an exciting game (Padres-Rockies) called so boringly. It might as well be the 97th game between the Pirates and Houston.

Was Brocail on the Yankees for a few minutes?

SG, you get paid for this?

Knowledge is my only reward.  I do most of my blogging at work though, so I guess I do get paid indirectly.

Was Brocail on the Yankees for a few minutes?

Nope. Are you thinking Jim Brower?

This was more awesome than the one-game playoff going to the top of the 12th.

“Nope. Are you thinking Jim Brower?”

Dan Miceli.

Michael Barrett to be the hero.

Colorado and San Diego fans must be on pins and needles.  I’m just glad the Yanks don’t have to win an extra inning game in order to make the playoffs.

Are there any people of color in Colorado?

Besides professional athletes, I mean.

Colorado has used eight pitchers thus far.  That’s almost Torre-like, except for the results.

If the Rox win, all 5 teams from the NL West will have been in the playoffs over the last 6 years.  That’s pretty good for divisional parity.  Since 2000, only 2 teams from the AL East have played in the postseason, 4 from the Central, 3 from the West, 4 from the NL East, 3 from the Central.

If I were a Padre fan, I’d be real upset that Bud Black was consistently putting my team in a spot where they could lose with Hoffman on the bench.  This reminds me of another manager…

Colorado (which means “red” in Spanish) used to be part of Mexico, so the odds are that there are indeed a few non-Anglos.

This game got me thinking of The Greatest Baseball Game Of All Time, Game 2 of the ‘95 ALDS, and I forgot about this gem:

“Bottom of the 12th, Yankees Batting, Behind 4-5, Jeff Nelson facing 9-1-2
  O   —-  4 R Velarde     Strikeout Swinging
      —-  7 W Boggs       Walk
            Tim Belcher replaces Jeff Nelson pitching; Jorge Posada pinch runs for Wade Boggs batting 1st.”

Wheels Posado gets in the game!

“Colorado (which means “red” in Spanish) used to be part of Mexico, so the odds are that there are indeed a few non-Anglos.”

Well they’re clearly not Rockies fans (or can’t afford the tickets).

Hey Dan M., were you on the Yankees for a few minutes, pitching in relief, 2003 or 2004?

Colorado is 83% white as of 2000

Either these bullpens are doing a fantastic job or these lineups are inept.

Is this parade of San Diego relievers actually good, or is it merely the fact that they play in Petco Field?

If the Yanks manage extra innings from here on out, their only chance of winning is to score while Joba or Mariano is in the game.

You must be thinking of TanQuanGorMo.  They were the only ones who got relief innings those two years.

In each of the last four years now, a Yankee has finished in the top 3 in games pitched.

“Is this parade of San Diego relievers actually good, or is it merely the fact that they play in Petco Field?”

Don’t forget that they’re pitching a lot of innings in the NL West (high AAA).

Wow, Jorge Julio is in the game.  The edge definitely shifts to San Diego.

Dan M, you said it: I can’t believe Hoffman isn’t in this game?

Oh, he’s coming in now.

Nice call, IE.

8-6 San Diego.  Jorge Julio is perhaps the only reliever in baseball who is worse than Kyle Farnsworth.  He may even be worse than Sean Henn.

It would be cool if a WS game came down to Rivera and Hoffman, 9 years after ‘98.

Julio is still throwing hard, touching 97, but still can’t get anyone out - just like the days when he closed for Lee Mazzilli’s Orioles.

Personally, I’d rather see a Yankees-Cubs series.

Dang, I would’ve liked the Rox to pull it off - they have a lot of players that seem pretty likable.  Needless to say, very unlikely now.

OTOH I’m happy that it looks like Peavy will get another postseason shot.  The guy is probably the second best starter in baseball and has had some really rough October outings up to this point in his career.

Holliday’s error and the miscall on the Atkins non-HR loom HUGE.

He’s like a poor man’s Armando Benitez.

Yeah, I’d like the Cubs and Phillies to advance and it’d be fun to meet either one in the WS.  I’m not interested in playing franchises I still think of as expansion teams (anything after 1968).

I don’t know what the losing team’s fans are going to do tomorrow… this game is really emotionally draining.

Maybe I’m stereotyping unfairly, but I don’t think fans in Colorado and San Diego really care. 

Tomorrow, the Colorado people will go mountain biking and the San Diego people will go surfing.

All of them will be high.

“If the Yanks manage extra innings from here on out, their only chance of winning is to score while Joba or Mariano is in the game.”

Phil Hughes.  You’ll see.

8-8 and Holliday just won the MVP.

Colorado has tied the game at 8 against Hoffman and the winning run is on third base with no outs.  If San Diego does indeed have fans, they must be dying right now.

I guess Bud Black was right not to insert Hoffman earlier.

The announcer just said that Giles wasn’t tall enough to make the catch.

It’s funny cause he’s short.

That was a crazy game.

Wow. What a game! Great start to the postseason.

What agony for the non-surfing San Diego baseball fans.  It’s the equivalent of last Friday’s game against the Orioles where Mariano blew a 3 run lead - only in that case it didn’t really matter.

Looks like Holliday should have been called out but clearly Hoffman was doing his best to cough that one up.  Poor guy.

The umpires deserve a collective beating after the season ends - preferably by Shelley Duncan.

I’m not surprised the worst umpired season in my baseball viewing life ended on a blown call.
Un freakin’ believable.

And if the World Series ends in a similar fashion, the for Cuban heavyweight Teofilo Stevenson should be called out of retirement and flown into New York so as to mete out the grimmest of punishments.

Oh, and about first base… I don’t think it’s Dougie-M vs. Base Clogger as much as Dougie M. vs. a Betemit (or Giambi)/Duncan platoon.

I would rather have the platoon.

I don’t want Giambi to wear a glove in the post-season.  Errors can be overcome during a 162 game season but not as easily during a best of five series.  Moreover, errors lead to starters leaving games earlier due to higher pitch counts - meaning more innings for the Yanks’ wimpy middle relievers.  Lastly, Giambi’s bat has been rather anemic of late.  It’s not as if the choice to keep him on the bench is a difficult one at this point.

Having an out machine like Dougie-M vs. the best pitchers in the game makes less sense to me. He had a decent time at the plate this year (when not on the DL), we have no reason in the world to believe he’ll keep it up. Anything against Betemit/Duncan platoon?

A Betemit/Duncan platoon is fine by me - although there is zero chance Torre makes that choice.  There is a chance Duncan will start as the DH on Thursday rather than Matsui, which makes sense - especially as Hideki is 0-11 lifetime vs. Sabathia and hasn’t exactly been tearing up the league of late.  Basically, A-Rod, Jeter and Posada will have to do the damage against C.C.

Duncan vs. a lefty makes just too much freakin’ sense. I would kill for a Dougie-M/Duncan platoon at this point, though Torre probably thinks he can take the hitting hit for all that defense… sigh.

“I would kill for a Dougie-M/Duncan platoon at this point”

I also wish Mariano Duncan were here, hitting .340.

I didn’t include Bronson Sardinha or Alberto Gonzalez in here because it’s doubtful they’d be used for anything other than pinch-running. The thing is, if Giambi is not starting who do you pinch run for? Posada? I wouldn’t risk losing his bat in any games.

Depending on the situation, there are 3 guys it makes sense to pinch-run for (other than Giambi, of course):

1) S. Duncan
2) Matsui
3) Posada

In each case you need to be careful about it.  E.g., Posada gets a lead-off double with the game tied in the top of the eight, sure, pinch-run for him.  You’d have to feel good that if that run came home, Joba and Mo could finish the game.  But sure, you don’t want to pinch-run just because there is a formula.

Also, it probably wouldn’t hurt to project Gonzalez or Sardinha.  Unfortunately, players get hurt in the PS, and Sardinha could suddenly be the starting RF in game 3…

I would agree with IE that defense comes first and Minky is the best. Betemit would be a close second, but his bat has been less than impressive at times.
I wouldn’t play Matsui against CC, but instead use Duncan as the dh. Matsui can come off the bench. He’s been a litte slowed down anyway.
A year ago it seemed like everyone was stealing against Victor Martinez. Has he gotten better at throwing out runners and do any of you expect Torre to gamble on the basepaths, particularly if getting people on first is difficult?
Hoffman’s performance last night reminds that the playoff atmosphere can change what we come to expect on a routine basis and players don’t always play to their norms. Peavy often won’t give up five or more runs and Hoffman evidently was better than that during the season.
I also agree with IE that a game like that (last night’s) with the Indians won’t work well if our pen gets extended. The Yanks simply need to find a way to score often and especially late.

“I would agree with IE that defense comes first and Minky is the best. Betemit would be a close second, but his bat has been less than impressive at times”

And Minky’s bat has been impressive? Guys, why aren’t you pushing for Molina over Posada if defense is so important? Maybe Alberto Gonzalez over Jeter.

Sleepy- Remember that last Boston game where Jeter hit the 3 run homer. Probably my favorite game of the year so far anyway. Do you remember the runs Minky saved early in the game? If that play hadn’t been made the Rocket may have imploded. That was just as good in many ways as an offensive contribution and maybe worth more because it allowed Clemens some time to find himself. That’s the kind of moment I think may be important in a short series. There’s also the propensity for Jeter and A-rod to make poor throws and you need a guy who is good at making picks.

i would have much more energy to fight the giambi/mientkiewicz fight if Giambi hadn’t looked like absolute dogcrap for months.

it’s only an interesting debate when the guy with the poor glove is actually hitting.

but he’s not, so you may as well play mientkiewicz for all his glove-ery goodness.

Yeah.  You play the hot hand, and right now, ManCaveItch is the hot hand.  He’s not only a superior fielder, but he’s been out-hitting Giambi handily for a while now.  I know he’s not as good a hitter as Giambi when Giambi is right (few are!), but that does not appear to be the case.

joeln, I don’t give a flying crap what happens in one game. Anything can happen in one game. And it’s impossible to tell that a) Betemit or Shelly wouldn’t have made that play b)  how many games we will lose because Dougie-M is a bad hitter. You can tell me when an error costs a game, it’s obvious, but not a bad at-bat. It also underlines my point: why not have Molina catch over Posada if defense is THAT important?

Rob, “hot hands” is a ridiculous idea. There’s no reason why a guy who has a hit in five straight games will get one in the sixth, or a guy who has five straight hitless games wouldn’t.

why not have Molina catch over Posada if defense is THAT important?

Because there’s a 200 point difference in OPS, which no amount of good defense will make up for.

Currently Dougie M. (.789) has a 95 point edge on Betemit (.694) in OPS. Yes, he has a lower OPS than Duncan (.883) by about 90 points, but if we’re talking about giving at bats away, Duncan has a 33% K rate, Betemit has a 39% K rate, and Dougie M. has a 17% K rate.

The fact is, right now he’s an offensive threat roughly equivalent to Giambi and Duncan and provides superior defense. The one guy who may be able to play 1st base with a similar aptitude has just a few games under his belt at that position (gee, worked out great for us last October) and is a strikeout waiting to happen.

Great analysis, SG.  Cleveland hasn’t been getting enough respect in the AL.  As you pointed out, they have a solid lineup, they’ve been hotter than the Yankees over the last month and a half, and they have three strong lefty pitchers who have the potential to hurt the Yankee lineup.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an exciting game (Padres-Rockies) called so boringly. It might as well be the 97th game between the Pirates and Houston.

You know, I agree that the TBS guys are boring, but I actually found it kind of refreshing, and am sort of looking forward to a more subdued broadcast for the Yankee games, as opposed to the busy, over-hyped presentation of Fox or ESPN.

I guess Bud Black was right not to insert Hoffman earlier.
It’s a small sample size so it’s unfair, but Hoffman has blown a lot of big saves.  If he converts one Saturday or yesterday, the Pads are in the playoffs.

Regarding first base:  I think the anti-Minky sentiment is misguided at this point.  He’s without a doubt the Yanks’ best defender at first, he’s been one of the team’s hottest hitters in recent weeks, and though he may be below average offensively for a first baseman, his career OPS+ is an even 100.  I’ll take his plus defense and average offense over the other options.  And I like Betemit, but why do some seem so eager to get his .229 batting average into the lineup?

Rob, “hot hands” is a ridiculous idea. There’s no reason why a guy who has a hit in five straight games will get one in the sixth, or a guy who has five straight hitless games wouldn’t.

In the same way that the best predictor of a stock’s next tick is its previous tick, a guy’s last at bat IS the best predictor of his next at bat. Just don’t try to draw that trend line out very far into the future. If a good hitter is in a slump it is more likely that his slump will continue in the short run, even though he will likely pull out of it eventually. Giambi should not be at 1B over Haywire.

Cleveland hasn’t been getting enough respect in the AL.

Cleveland (as a city) gets less respect than Rodney Dangerfield. Yakov Smirnov used to do a funny bit about how every country has a city like Cleveland. In Soviet Union we have Cleveland…

—-If a good hitter is in a slump it is more likely that his slump will continue in the short run, even though he will likely pull out of it eventually.—-

Is this true?  I know I read a chapter about this in “the book”, but I can’t remember.  My gut says no.

CT that doesn’t make any sense at all. For one thing, a stock’s last tick is related to its next tick, at-bats are basically unrelated. Also, why would slumps ever end? You should define your terms. What constitutes a “slump” or “breaking out of a slump”

kronicfatigue, “The Book” concludes: “Knowing that a hitter has been in or is in the midst of a hot or cold streak has little predictive value.”

Man, I really wish the Yankees had drawn the Angels, who are so obviously the weakest team in the playoffs. I don’t care about history; the Indians are WAY better. I have a terrible feeling that the Yankees are going to get spanked. And I was really confident they would crush the Angels…I dunno, just gut feelings…The Yankees don’t miss enough bats.

I agree WJ- with Shields struggling the Indians are a much tougher draw.  They have a deeper lineup and facing Sabathia twice is not a picnic in the park.  At least we dodge Carmona twice and maybe we can get to Borowsi.

Cleveland pitchers have better ERAs+ in each game except for game 3 which is a push. The Yankees hitters have higher OPSs+.  Has anyone ever cross referenced what and OPS+ of x verus an ERA+ of Y will yield within a given confidence level?

I think Cleveland has been getting plenty of respect.

7 out of 10 ESPN “experts” picked Cleveland to win the series.

“Jorge Posada has hit .241/.358/.388 in the postseason in his career. It’d be nice if he could do better than that this year.”

He did better than that the past two post-seasons, with 1.012 & 1.449 OPS in 2005 & 2006, respectively.  Hope that continues this year.