The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

2007 Yankee Run Values - Through April 9

I figure it's a good time for a small sample-size look at how the Yankees have performed so far. Here's the position players on offense and defense. The last 3 columns are if you pro-rate over the rest of the season.
Player BR Def Total pBR pDef pTotal
A Rodriguez* 6.7 -0.3 6.3 180 -9 171
J Damon* 2.5 0.7 3.2 68 18 86
B Abreu* 1.8 1.2 2.9 48 32 79
J Posada* 1.6 0.2 1.8 43 4 48
J Phelps* -0.1 0.7 0.5 -4 18 15
W Nieves* -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -12 0 -12
M Cairo* -0.9 0.3 -0.6 -23 8 -15
J Giambi* -0.8 0.0 -0.8 -23 0 -23
D Mientkiewicz* -1.0 -0.3 -1.3 -26 -8 -34
H Matsui* -0.4 -0.9 -1.4 -11 -26 -37
M Cabrera* -3.0 1.4 -1.7 -82 37 -45
D Jeter* 0.2 -1.9 -1.7 6 -52 -46
R Cano* -0.8 -1.8 -2.6 -22 -48 -71
Total 5.2 -1.0 4.3 142 -26 115


Alex Rodriguez is on fire. Damon's not getting the hype, but he's doing really well too. The middle infield is sucking it up so far on both sides of the ball, but I don't expect that to continue for long. And what about the pitching?

Player RSAA pRSAA
S Henn* 2.2 59
M Myers* 1.9 51
B Bruney* 1.7 46
K Farnsworth* 1.4 38
M Rivera* 0.9 25
L Vizcaino* 0.6 15
A Pettitte* 0.3 9
S Proctor* -0.3 -8
C Pavano* -0.7 -18
D Rasner* -3.0 -80
M Mussina* -4.1 -111
K Igawa* -4.7 -126
Total -3.7 -100


BR Batting Runs above average (linear weights)
Def Runs saved above average by Zone Rating
Total BR + Def
RSAA Runs saved above average (lgERA - ERA)/9 x IP

The bullpen is carrying the pitching staff so far, which isn't exactly news to anyone who's been watching. They won't be able to keep up their performance, because if they're pitching as much as they have to this point they're going to get worn out, but you have to figure Moose will get better, and Igawa will either get better or be pitching in Scranton. Wang should return by the end of the month. As I mentioned at the top, small sample size clearly applies, but this should give you a rough idea of where the Yankees should get better. The fact that they've been scoring like they have with minimal to negative contribution from the bulk of their players is a very good sign. If they get their starting pitching to be serviceable, they'll be in pretty good shape.
--Posted at 7:58 am by SG / 13 Comments | No Trackbacks - (681)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

It’s strange to see Phelps on the positve side for defense while Minky is on the negative side? Could this be that Phelps has happened to play on the days when the rest of the Yankees’ infield have had their stuff together, while Minky has happened to play the games when Jeter plays SS like a little leaguer?

i demand a WPA breakdown!  WPA is the only stat that matters!

Hello one and all. My first post under the new format. I’m formerly joel, but now joeln. Great game last night. I have to admit that Pavano held up much better than I would have imagined. I can’t understand why he doesn’t register more K’s if the mph readings of 95 were accurate. I guess Wang throws just as hard and is similar in that respect. All that matters is that he gave seven solid innings and hopefully will be able to give the team 150 innings at a minimum this year. I will believe this when I see it. Last night’s opponent however was a bit of a set up as NY (as well as both leagues) have pounded Ponson over and over the past few years. Big game for Pettitte tonight and weather won’t be an excuse.  Would you tell me why Minnesota wants an open air stadium without a removable roof after what we have seen in Cleveland? I suppose it’s a cost matter, but pretty short sighted. Jeter had a pretty fortunate night with all of his rollers and bounders. I would like to see him drive the ball but generally it takes him a month to get the feel of it. And what’s the deal with the Melkman? Probably more important that A-Rod does well this year. Yankee fans need to realize if he walks there won’t be any compensation and we will have a huge hole to fill. Let’s show him the love and convince him to honor that contract! The past week is a good example of how special a player he can be when he believes in himself.

Wow.  Cairo in the middle of the pack.  Small sample size works to his benefit!

i demand a WPA breakdown!  WPA is the only stat that matters!

Name              WPA 
Alex Rodriguez    0.86
Delmon Young      0.76
Brian McCann      0.75
Miguel Cabrera    0.75
Akinori Iwamura   0.67
Adrian Gonzalez   0.65
Xavier Nady       0.65
Grady Sizemore    0.57
Eric Byrnes       0.56
Orlando Hudson    0.55
Aramis Ramirez    0.54
Ian Kinsler       0.54
Jose Reyes        0.5
B
.JUpton        0.46
Edgar Renteria    0.46
Jimmy Rollins     0.43
Vladimir Guerrero 0.43
Troy Glaus        0.41
Ivan Rodriguez    0.39
Carlos Beltran    0.38
David DeJesus     0.36
Derek Jeter       0.35
…    
David Ortiz       0.15 

I can’t understand why he doesn’t register more K’s if the mph readings of 95 were accurate.

I think ESPN’s gun was off yesterday, or they were measuring the pitch from his release point.  The Fox Sports Northwest gun had Pavano at around 91 on the pitches that Pavano was throwing at 95 on ESPN.  I think when he’s healthy he tops out in the low 90s, which is fine if he has his breaking stuff working and his control.

Whether it’s 91 or 95, it’s a good indicator that he’s healthy, and long-term, that’s the important thing.

YES had Pavano at 90-91, but keep in mind that Wang usually sits at 94-95, and tops out at 97 at times, and still doesn’t strike many batters out, although I think his K rate could inch up this season because he has been working on his secondary pitches.

shows you how silly and misleading “hitting streaks” can be.  cano was assumed to be hitting well b/c had a streak going, but he had hit almost all singles with no walks so far.

it’s probably for the best that his streak ended last night, b/c he was swinging at everything.

i love cano, but i’d love him even more if he took a few pitches.

Couldn’t agree more yup on Cano. He’ll come around and start driving the ball, but don’t know if he’ll ever get 50 BB in a season.  This is kind of encouraging as Eric Duncan has his first two AAA homers in the early season. The sample over three months will be more telling, but it sure would be nice if he could live up to the hype and turn it around. It would appear that NY will really have to look outside of the organization soon for a firstbaseman if he doesn’t pan out soon.  On the other hand just to show the power of the mind, the very talented Alex Gordon of KC is off to a 1-20 start. I have no doubt he’s the real thing as he was the minor league player of the year. Let’s just hope when he gets going it’s not at the Yanks expense as NY goes to KC twice this year. I really miss the team not making two trips to every AL city each year. The prospect of playing Tampa 18-19 times just makes me sick. They could still have a moderate interleague schedule and even play your own division rivals a few more games. The schedule makers are very nutty in the way they do things. The Yanks opening at home with a domed stadium in Tampa available is a good example. Evidently Bud likes the way things are running.

Sean Henn looks great also. Our bullpen looks mean and throws hard. If Farnsworth can be consistent and Henn and Bruney are not flukes, we could have one of the best ‘pens in the MLB.

The thing about a decent bullpen is that its most valuable when used rarely.  You can’t be a successful team if the only thing working is the bullpen.  If the starting pitching falters all season, the bullpen will be overused.  And no matter how good they are, eventually they will get tired.
So this bullpens successful will eventually be determined by the success of the starting pitching.

Do you guys feel Torre has done a better job spreading the load among his bullpen so far?  In my opinion this is the deepest and most versatile bullpen that Cashman has assembled.  We’ve seen Tom Gordon, Paul Quantrill, and Ron Villone get burnt out in Aug/Sept and have nothing left for the playoff push… let’s hope the same doesn’t happen here.

Do you guys feel Torre has done a better job spreading the load among his bullpen so far?

yes.

but he hasn’t had much of a choice. the first 4-5 games he basically needed 5 relievers per game.

but i agree, this bullpen *MIGHT* be Torre-proof.

The bullpen might be Torre-proof, but it might not be starter-proof, and it may just not be MLB 2007-proof. The bullpen is going to be used, most likely, a minimum of 150-155 games this year.

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