“Jeter 15 -12   2” 

Oof.

I find it interesting that Josh Phelps has a better defensive rating at 1B than Miguel Cairo (both of which, of course, are small sample sizes).  Also, Cano’s excellent defense is the best possible riposte to the murmurs that he “doesn’t care” or has “attitude problems.”  As for A-Rod, he is clearly the best player in baseball this year but he won’t win the MVP unless the Yanks make the playoffs - a situation he will be most familiar with from his years in Texas.

“Jeter 15 -12 2”

There’s a rounding issue there, but the good news is we should project Jeter to play better defense(relative to his current performance) going forward given his #s the last few seasons.  If he can keep his offense at the level he should be more valuable going forward.

I find it interesting that Josh Phelps has a better defensive rating at 1B than Miguel Cairo (both of which, of course, are small sample sizes).

Like you said, it’s small sample size.  Also, this is strictly fieldable chances converted into outs in the defined zone for first base.  Scooping ability is not considered here, nor tracking of foul pop ups in foul ground.

So what do you think the discrepancy is between the +47 result of your chart and the Yankees actual run differential of +72?

So what do you think the discrepancy is between the +47 result of your chart and the Yankees actual run differential of +72?

If I had to guess, it’s probably due to better than expected performances in certain situations, like with runners in scoring position.  I’d have to run the team stats through something like Baseruns to see if they’ve scored more runs than they should have.

Oh, and also, it looks like I’m double-counting defense here since the team -6 defense is already reflected in the team’s RA.  I shouldn’t really count them separately.  So the actual difference should be +38 on offense and +15 on defense, or +53 overall.  That’s still a 19 run difference, I’d have to see if that is explained by the hitting in clutch situations.  It seems counterintuitive that a team is doing so poorly in close games would hit better in the clutch, but it can probably be explained by how well they do in those rare games they actually do win.

It seems counterintuitive that a team is doing so poorly in close games would hit better in the clutch

Me personally, with no basis in scientific fact or anything but based on opinions when watching the games, I think that a lot of the reason they are losing close games is because of “small ball”.  In late-and-close games, they’ve been all about bunting, and it seems to me it rarely works, and even when it does, they get exactly what they play for - one run - and it ends up being just short of enough to win.

Does retrosheet have enough info to determine how the Yankees do when they try to sacrifice?  I mean, if they successfully sacrifice, I can tell how many runs they score afterwards.  And of course also see what the result of the game was.  But if the result of the play is a force-out at second, would I be able to tell that the out was the result of a failed sac attempt?

OK, I’m going to guess that the reason the run differential doesn’t line up has to do with the position-adjustments.  As a team, the Yankees have 463 batting runs by linear weights, compared to their actual total of 464.  I’ll have to look at how that’s messing things up, although I’d guess it has to do with the players that are playing multiple positions.  If you want to look at this in a way that maps closer to run differential, use the raw batting runs total from my offense post instead of the position adjustments above average.

Does retrosheet have enough info to determine how the Yankees do when they try to sacrifice?  I

It depends what seasons.  They started recording more detailed information like BG for bunt grounders, BP for bunt popup but I’m not sure how far back that goes.  We wouldn’t have any data for 2007 until the season is over anyway.

Thanks SG.  I actually felt kinda the same way last year anyway - that when they tried to sacrifice the results were poor even if there was success - so maybe I’ll try to come up with a way to quantify it.

the yankees have also lost 5 games this year by 1 run in which they’ve yielded unearned runs.

stuff like that happens every year, but the yankees are likely to fall a few games short this year and it’s hard to accept that.

jeter made 3 of those errors, abreu 1, and cairo 1.

I was just watching Game 7 of the 2001 World Series and something new occurred to me.

On Jay Bell’s sac bunt, after Mo gets the out at 3rd, Brosius had an EASY double play if he threw to first base, but he inexplicably eats it.

bah!

I don’t think I have ever fully recovered from Game 7 2001. Not even the 2004 “unpleasantness” was worse.

“On Jay Bell’s sac bunt, after Mo gets the out at 3rd, Brosius had an EASY double play if he threw to first base, but he inexplicably eats it”

I remember that I was screaming Brosius because he did not throw to first.

On Jay Bell’s sac bunt, after Mo gets the out at 3rd, Brosius had an EASY double play if he threw to first base, but he inexplicably eats it.

Buster Olney actually covers this very situation in depth in ‘The Last Night of the Yankees Dynasty.’ 

Basically when Torre huddled with all the players he told them “make sure we get one out,” and Brosius thought that meant “don’t do anything risky like attempt a double play.”  Also, apparently Rivera’s throw to third pulled Brosius off the bag a little bit, so it wasn’t going to be an easy throw to first anyway.

I have in my head that Brosius was more responsible for that loss than Mo.

Yes, me too Damien, although the Boston loss was like a slow death given being in the drivers seat. Both events mark a turning point in terms of breaks going the wrong way. We have had many weigh in on all of this in recent days. The 2001 series put the team within a whisker of doing the unthinkable-of winning four in row, five out of six, in an era of a two round playoff format. When A’s fans brag about the 70’s three-peat, they must concede that it was done with only one round of playoffs.  It seems that Yanks spent all its good will winning the 4th and 5th games of 01, and haven’t had too many breaks in the postseason since. I was also really disappointed with the 03 Series. I will alway wonder how a WS in Wrigley would have gone. No doubt the sympathy vote would have been very much in the Cubs corner around the nation, but we will never know. Wonder what Steve Bartman is doing these days? I think that was his name.

I think the 2001 Series hurt me so much because that win would have meant so much. Four in a row/five out of six would have been historic. But there were other reasons: Both of the teams they beat in the AL won over 100 games. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling are great (probably both hall of fame caliber) pitchers who were at the top of their game. The wins on four or five was as dramatic and improbable as it gets. Soriano’s eigth inning homerun came on one of the best splitters I have ever seen. And, it was October of 2001. It would have meant a lot to a lot of people.

But baseball is rarely polite enough to follow the script. I guess that’s why it can be so heartbreaking and compelling at the same time.

I have in my head that Brosius was more responsible for that loss than Mo.

i love Mo, but i don’t think so.

Mo threw the first bunt away. 

then he gave up a double to Tony Womack.

it was Mo’s fault.

And, it was October/November of 2001. It would have meant a lot to a lot of people.

That Halloween night when Tino pulled it out of the hat in the ninth will be a memory I will never forget and certainly Jeter winning it just after it turned November-wow! And then to repeat the unlikely script a night later-unbelievable. That’s why it was so hurtful to be teased and then dropped to the ground in the final game. In truth the team could have easily lost in five games, but to eak those out and get within an out seemed so cruel. Obviously, it delighted the rest of the country and my brother in law who moved to Phoenix just a year earlier. He of course had to give me a lot of crap about it. When you think of those twists and turns it makes you appreciate even more what happened from 96-2000. When you think of the glorious Mantle years, you can see how unpredictable the WS was even then without preliminary playoffs. Mantle won 7 times but lost in 55,57, 60- a real jip,63 and 64. So dynasties don’t always end up in Championships year after year and never did-even in that era.

Speaking of defense, maybe with how upset Pujols is we could grab our first baseman from St. Louis. They need starting pitching… we could send them Pavano or something. That would work… right?!?

I know you’re kidding Deryck, but your comment got me thinking about what one would have to give up to get Pujols. I think any trade for Pujols would have to be bad for the team that acquired him. For example, we’d probably have to give up Hughes, Wang, Cano and something else. The Sox would have to give up Papelbon, Beckett, Youkilis, and something else. The only way any team could justify trading Pujols (which WILL NOT happen, this is just an exercize), would be if they got back the equivalent of what the Cowboys got for trading Hershel Walker.

Yeah, theoretically I guess I see it something like this (though I’m sure smaller parts would be added or replaced somewhere):

NYY Get
Albert Pujols 1B

StL Get
Jose Tabata OF
Robinson Cano 2B
Chien Ming Wang P

You guys think that might work? I’m not saying either team would commit to it (in no way obviously) I’m just wondering in a theoretical world if thats what it would take.

The most painful loss is still Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS. What a shank to the guy that was. Mattngly’s tie breaking double bounces over the wall instead of staying in play, resulting in two runs instead of three, then Mike Stanley pops out with the bases loaded and one out on ball 4. David Cone walks DOUG FUCKING STRANGE with the bases loaded to tie the game, and worse, Buck asshat Showalter lets Cone go 146 pitches with Mariano in the pen. Mariano of course faces the next batter after strange, Mike Blowers, and strikes him out on 3 pitches.  For all of Torre’s faults, no way he doesn’t give the ball to a hot hand like Mo over a gassed vet at that point. Mo had shows his stuff plenty of times…no one knew he was going to be the best closer ever, but he clearly had the stuff to dominate, including great minor league numbers, a dominant regular season start against the White Sox, and a great performance in Game 2.

THEN, Tony Fernandez’s almost homer hits the top of the wall in the 9th. THEN, after taking the lead, asshat Buck lets Jack McDowell pitch a second inning instead of going to his closer. Yeah, Wetteland had gotten his ass handed to him the day before, but fuck man, Jack McDowell?

What a devestating loss that was.

What’s crazy about that is, I might actually consider pulling the trigger on that trade.  Pujols is sick.

I think the Brosius play was the only time I’ve seen Mo even remotely try to throw another player under the bus.

I would never make that trade.

—-

re 2001, I blame Torre for bringing the infield in. Mo only gives up cheap hits. Lugo’s ball was totally playable with a normal shortstop properly positioned. So let’s not get crazy blaming Brosius.

Wang is not only one of the 10 best pitchers in the majors, he is only 27 years old and won’t be a free agent for three more years.  Regardless of the pitching depth the Yanks have in the minors, trading him would be absolutely disastrous.  Let’s not forget how much the Yanks struggled when he began the season on the DL.  Having him come in and pitch 7-8 innings a few times during that period may have resulted in a more rested (and effective) bullpen.

Surely there’s something more interesting to talk about than trading Wang, Hughes and Tabata for Pujols.

I’m sure there probably is… what about A-Rod 8yrs 250m

Damn… tomorrows game can’t come fast enough