The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

2007 vs. 2008 through 45 games

Here's a game by game comparison of the first 45 games of the Yankees' 2007 and 2008.

2007 2008
Gm W/L RF RA W/L RF RA
1 1-0 9 5 1-0 3 2
2 1-1 6 7 1-1 2 5
3 1-2 4 6 2-1 3 2
4 2-2 10 7 2-2 4 13
5 2-3 4 6 2-3 3 6
6 3-3 8 2 3-3 2 0
7 4-3 10 1 4-3 6 1
8 4-4 1 5 4-4 2 5
9 4-5 4 5 4-5 0 4
10 5-5 4 3 5-5 6 1
11 5-6 4 5 6-5 4 1
12 6-6 10 3 6-6 3 4
13 7-6 9 2 6-7 5 8
14 8-6 8 6 7-7 8 7
15 8-7 6 7 8-7 5 3
16 8-8 5 7 9-7 15 9
17 8-9 6 7 9-8 5 7
18 8-10 8 10 9-9 2 8
19 8-11 4 6 9-10 0 6
20 8-12 0 6 10-10 7 1
21 8-13 4 11 11-10 9 5
22 9-13 3 1 12-10 6 4
23 9-14 4 7 12-11 6 7
24 10-14 10 1 12-12 4 6
25 11-14 4 3 12-13 3 4
26 12-14 5 2 13-13 1 0
27 12-15 11 15 14-13 5 2
28 13-15 8 1 14-14 4 6
29 14-15 5 0 14-15 2 6
30 14-16 2 3 14-16 4 8
31 15-16 8 2 15-16 5 1
32 16-16 6 2 16-16 6 1
33 16-17 2 14 17-16 8 2
34 16-18 0 3 17-17 3 5
35 17-18 7 2 17-18 0 3
36 17-19 1 2 18-18 6 3
37 17-20 3 5 18-19 5 6
38 18-20 8 1 19-19 5 2
39 18-21 1 4 19-20 1 7
40 18-22 2 3 19-21 1 2
41 18-23 7 10 20-21 2 1
42 19-23 6 2 20-22 2 5
43 20-23 6 2 20-23 4 7
44 20-24 3 7 20-24 2 11
45 21-24 8 3 20-25 2 12
244 212 181 209
PtyhagenPat 26-19 20-25
On Pace 87-75 71-91


Gm: Game # of season
W/L: Win-Loss record after that Gm
RF: Runs for
RA: Runs against

Although the Yankees are only one game off last year's pace, it's worth noting the difference in run differential between last year. Last year's team was 21-24 but if they played to their run differential for the rest of the season they'd have been expected to win 66 of their remaining games and a end up with a total of 87 wins using Pythagenpat (a more advanced form of the Pythagorean theorem). This year's team has allowed 3 fewer runs than last years, but has scored 63 fewer. The reduced run-scoring this year is part of the offensive reduction, but that also means the pitching/defense has been worse. If the 2008 Yankees play to their current run differential for the rest of the season, they're a 71 win team.

This team's record is reflective of their poor play to this point as opposed to last year, where there were reasonable expectations for improvement based on their runs for and runs against. That doesn't mean we shouldn't expect individual players to improve if they are playing below their talent level, but right now this team is every bit as bad statistically as they are in the standings.

Easier schedule starts tonight, I swear.
--Posted at 11:42 am by SG / 57 Comments | - (319)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

“Pythagorean theorem”

Didn’t know the Greeks knew about baseball…

O’s pitching a lefty that’s never easy for us

Didn’t know the Greeks knew about baseball…

Pythagoras had filthy stuff.

So… is it time to start worrying now…?

Pythagoras had filthy stuff.

But could he hit a curveball?

Actually, he threw a curveball.

Sure, the schedule will get easier.  The question is whether it will get easy enough.

So for three of the past four years (‘05, ‘07, ‘08), the Yankees have gotten off to slow starts.  Is there something to this?

Is there something to this?

Yes.  They have an old team that doesn’t play well in cold weather.  Which can also explain them shitting the bed in the playoff.  But it cannot explain Robinson Cano.  So whatever…

Pythagoras had filthy stuff.

Yeah, he was converted from catcher after he kept getting distracted trying to determine the distance his throws from home to second traveled.

Actually, Cleveland was quite warm last October - so much so that the midges paid a visit from Lake Erie.

In 07 we were unlucky as SGs graphic shows and could not win the close ones. This year we’ve sucked so far and have no excuses.  As best as I can remember 05 we were playing poorly and it turned around when we had a big inning against Oakland in which we had a few lucky breaks.

127’ 3.35”

127’ 3.35”

NEEEEEEEEEEERD!

Wait a second, I’m a nerd because I know the dimensions of a baseball diamond by heart?  Nerdiness ain’t what it used to be, I tell ya.

127’ 3.35”

Yeah, that’s a nice approximation. Pythagoras doesn’t believe in approximations!

Runs galore in the minors so far, Charleston has 20 and Trenton has 15. Austin Jackson with a grand slam and a triple, Tabata off the schneid with his first HR of 2008.

Hey! Maybe the big club wll catch the scoring fever tonight.

Hey! Maybe the big club wll catch the scoring fever tonight.

Don… optimism… systems… shutting down…

Runs galore in the minors so far, Charleston has 20 and Trenton has 15.

And Pythagoras weeps.

John—There’s optimism, and then there’s cockeyed optimism.

Mike Francessa begging, nay demanding, that the Yankees add an ‘arm’ to the starting staff. He does not illuminate us as to who and for what.  raspberry

He does not illuminate us as to who and for what.

Clearly he’s advocating moving Joba to the rotation.  Duh!

No, Francessa is not advocating Joba to the rotation. He’s advocating a trade, as my post indicates.

Francessa is clearly on record for keeping Joba in the bullpen.

Double duh!

I know, Don.  Adjust your sarcasm-o-meter tongue laugh

Hardly the way the your post played out :banana:

Wouldn’t it be great if the Yankees had an ace-type youngster that threw mid to upper 90’s to plug into the rotation now, when they so desperately need one?  It sucks that you just can’t find one around ever corner these days.  Oh well…..

Oh, and it would be also cool if he had a catchy first name.  Ya know, like Chewy.  Or Boba.

Oh, and it would be also cool if he had a catchy first name.  Ya know, like Chewy.  Or Boba.

I’m partial to Justin, myself.  I *would* like an interesting last name, like an English PM or some such, like Churchill or Thatcher.

I hear they have this kid Boba Fett in AA that’s been lights out.

He does not illuminate us as to who and for what.

I know a week or two ago he was advocating Bronson Arroyo, for what it’s worth.

It’s not fair to “demand” it, but it’s not crazy to suggest that the Yankees could use a veteran arm for the staff, and they certainly have a surplus of young arms to trade.  The difficult question is who to target for acquisition.

The annoying thing, as well, is that the Yankees starters have sucked in a year when offense is DOWN in the AL.

Anyone think the Yanks can swing a trade for Chad Tracy? He can play both 1st and 3rd, gets on base at a decent clip (.348 carrer OBP) and can hit for average (.288 career BA). He’s coming back from an injury and the D’Backs really have no place for him with Mark Reynolds at 3rd and Connor Jackson at 1st.

I wouldnt mind it. He could be a decent guy to take over 1st.

I *would* like an interesting last name, like an English PM or some such…

I don’t think we should be trying to appease Francesca.

If Chad Tracy is the answer, you’re not asking the right question.

If Chad Tracy is the answer, you’re not asking the right question.

The same thing can be said for Bronson Arroyo.

I honestly don’t think we need to trade for offense at this point. As noted above, the two guys who have been below average are also the two youngest players on offense. I’m not sure we should be trying to get older.

As for trading for pitching, I would rather see us trade for a quality bullpen arm that we can sell as Joba’s replacement than try to go get a starter. Pettitte and Wang aren’t going to be dropped from the rotation, which means that if you go get another starter then you have two spots for IPK, Phil, Moose, Joba, and Rasner. Sure, Phil and IPK have been bad, but unless people are ready to get rid of Moose after his first bad start in nearly a month or keep Joba in the bullpen, I just don’t see that as a great strategy.

The Yanks do not have an easily identifiable problem spot on their roster, which is why the talk has been focused on such vagaries as “lifeless” or “listless” play.

Honestly, even if the Yanks could trade for a bat, who’d sit on the bench?  Damon?  Matsui?  Giambi?  Abreu?  I don’t see the Yankees embarassing themselves and their veterans by relegating them to the bench for another veteran or has-been.  Abreu is the closest I can see, since he’s not a “true” Yankee yet and he’s a free agent at the end of the year.

You can demote/bench Melky or Cano, but I could see another team asking for Cano in a trade, as well as a few choice prospects.  Besides, are the Yanks ready to give up on Cano when he’s a notoriously slow starter and their best young bat?

I don’t see much help coming to the lineup.  What you see is what you get, unless someone like Matusi or Damon or Giambi go down with a season-ending injury.  Then, the Yanks can use that as an excuse to get a bat, preferably a younger one, but if Hank is like his pop, he’ll demand a couple of youngsters go to the Reds for Griffey.

The Yanks do not have an easily identifiable problem spot on their roster…

Actually, they do.  Second base.  But there’s nothing to be done about that except wait.

How long has Junior been stuck on 597 now, anyway?

...even if the Yanks could trade for a bat, who’d sit on the bench?  Damon?  Matsui?  Giambi?  Abreu? ...

Before we worry ourselves over the embarrassment of benching any of those guys, shouldn’t we first identify someone who might be available in a trade and would actually outhit at least one of them?

Even if guys like Damon, Matsui, etc haven’t performed up to par, let’s not forget that sometimes as many as 3 spots in the lineup are taken up by the likes of Ensberg, former AG, and Molina.  I’m pretty sure that if ARod and Posada had been in the lineup these past few weeks things would’ve looked much rosier, even with some other guys slumping.

Seriously, and this has been said many times already, getting ARod and Posada back will be better than any trade they could make at this moment.  It’s hard to have a good team when you’ve got 2 sure black holes on the roster.

shouldn’t we first identify someone who might be available in a trade and would actually outhit at least one of them?

Ryan Church?  I hear he’s the best thing going.

According to Mr. Pete Abraham, Jeter is in the lineup at short tonight. That’s awesome.

The Yanks do not have an easily identifiable problem spot on their roster…

I’d say starting pitcher is getting close to being a problem spot.  There’s Wang, Pettitte, and a lot of uncertainty.

Hughes and Kennedy were a big part of the Yankees’ plans, whether Joba was in the rotation or not.  The idea was for them to provide 300-plus league-average innings.  If it turns out that they’re just not ready this year, which has been the case so far, that’s a HUGE problem spot.  If the Yankees want to compete this year, they may need to find someone besides Moose, Rasner, McCutchen or whomever to replace the expected innings of Hughes and Kennedy.

If it turns out that they’re just not ready this year, which has been the case so far, that’s a HUGE problem spot.

True, but the only way to know if they aren’t ready is to keep pitching them. You either give up on them (for now) and go get someone else or have faith and keep pitching them.

I guess my point is this: you can’t just generically upgrade the team. You have to upgrade a specific spot. Which spot would you target?

If I had to make that choice, I’m not sure I could identify one key roster spot that I would be comfortable pulling the trigger on. You’d either be bailing on a young player with an excellent track record (Cano, Hughes, Kennedy) or supplanting a veteran who really isn’t playing that poorly (Abreu, Damon, Giambi, Mussina). It’s not as easy as just “upgrading” the team.

As I said, I would try to get another bullpen arm so that I could move Joba to the rotation with minimal fuss. Are there any relief pitchers out there that would both make sense to attempt to acquire and would be better than internal options?

Even if guys like Damon, Matsui, etc haven’t performed up to par, let’s not forget that sometimes as many as 3 spots in the lineup are taken up by the likes of Ensberg, former AG, and Molina.

I remember, early on, when people were stoked about the bench.  Now?  Not so much.  It amazes me that the Yanks can spend 200 million on a roster and have so many problems.  Sometimes, I think Hank is justified in his rants.  I would not want to spend that much and get so little in return.

From SG’s table above, Yankees have scored 3 runs or less in 20 of their games so far this season, including 2 runs or less in 15(!!) of them.  Not surprisingly they lost 15 of those 20.  It’s tough to ask your pitching to keep the opposition to >2 runs all the time.  Offense is definitely the bigger culprit in their futility.

I remember, early on, when people were stoked about the bench.  Now?  Not so much.  It amazes me that the Yanks can spend 200 million on a roster and have so many problems.  Sometimes, I think Hank is justified in his rants.  I would not want to spend that much and get so little in return.

You’re missing the point.  People were stoked about the bench because they had good *bench* players, ie, not good enough to play full time.  Because of the injuries, they’ve been forced to play their bench guys full time, which is where the problem lies.  Jose Molina is a fine backup for Posada to give him a day off here and there, but not a regular.  Similarly, if Morgan Ensberg was good enough to be a starter, he’d be starting somewhere.

I’d say the pitching has been fairly good at giving up >2 runs a game.  If only we could find a way to invert that symbol.

Oops.  That’s what I get for hanging out here instead of working raspberry

I remember, early on, when people were stoked about the bench.  Now?

A) If you looked at how the bench players projected this year, being stoked about the bench was certainly understandable.  That not a single bench player has even remotely approached their projections does not mean that the bench was constructed poorly.  It just means that they have not performed well.  There’s a distinction there.  Good in theory, horrible in execution

B) What YM said.  The bench was looked at as a strength when their role was to play once a week.  Jose Molina is a decent backup catcher.  He’s horribly over-exposed as a starter.  I though Ensberg had a chance to be useful but he’s been a bust, offensively and defensively, although you could argue that it’s too early to write him off completely.  Betemit hasn’t played well, but he also hasn’t enough to write off either, he’s been snakebitten with his pinkeye and his hamstring.  Anyone that could have predicted that would make a great GM.

Which spot would you target?

I’d want to have some potential deals for veteran starters on the table.  I’m not ready to pull the trigger just yet, but I’m also not ready to keep running ineffective starters out there and punt away the season.

Sometimes you have to punt one season to ensure 10 good ones.  Kids require time and patience to develop.

I’d want to have some potential deals for veteran starters on the table.  I’m not ready to pull the trigger just yet, but I’m also not ready to keep running ineffective starters out there and punt away the season.

Assuming Wang and Pettitte are starting and that Joba will be in the rotation at some point, you’ll need to acquire a starter that can be expected to be better than the worst three of Moose, Hughes, Kennedy, and Rasner. I’m not saying that can’t be done, but it very well could be expensive.

The Yanks are overstocked with pitching from an organizational standpoint.  I’d move Joba to the rotation and try both Alan Horne (who is set to come back from his injury), Dan McCutchen and even Dan Giese before trading for an overpriced and mediocre starter.  Let’s also not forget that a healthy Phil Hughes is due at some point and Kennedy deserves a few more starts before being written off.

Actually, they do.  Second base.  But there’s nothing to be done about that except wait.

Being a rotisserie owner can occasionally lend insight into the life of a real GM or manager. How many times have you (OK, I) waited out bad stats for a proven major leaguer to even up the score? How many times have I released Oliver Perez before he went on one of his scoreless IP/mega-strikeout binges? Here’s where Girardi starts earning his salary.

I’m not saying that can’t be done, but it very well could be expensive.

Who’s the big name at the deadline anyway, Daniel Cabrera? Even if the O’s would trade in the division (which in this case, they might be smart to), it wouldn’t be pretty, and worse it might not be an upgrade.

In the Yankee’s current situation, there really isn’t a lot they could do. the biggest culprit of suck amoung the starting lineup is the guy your suppose to be least worried about long term. the rest of the lineup has either been hurt or really not that far from their expectation level. (but generally on the low end) that they lost their 2 best hitter from last year to extensive DL and their 3rd best have been playing like he needs to start worshiping Jobu is really not something any GM could reasonablly forsee.

None of these guys seem to be needing a long term soluation, and the DL guys are not out long enough to realistically worth getting a good stopgap (not to meantion they still have a lot more years left on their contract.. unlike Sheffield)

the Pitching side could use some thought. but right now Rasner / Moose / Wang / Pettitte are all more or less reasonablly good. while the 5th spot you must hope that the kids come through. it’s too early to panic for a 5th starter that may or maynot work.

They could toss Ensberg and/or option Duncan. but it’s not like the options are that much better. nor is trading for one seems to be a practical option. if the starters don’t hit like they’re suppose to. it’s not going to help anyway.

I think Ensberg might go once Betemit is back anyway. but Wilson’s play at 3rd (at least that Kei Igawa game) scares me too.

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