does this mean that cleveland finished at +13?  i.e. do both sides have to balance out?

I have Cleveland at +10.  They don’t have to balance out since they are compared against the 2007 league average.

Cleveland +10 and Yankees -13 = A total difference of 23 runs, or 2.3 wins.  That makes sense since the Indians were two wins better over four games.

SG, what do you think of Angelini? The Yankees wouldn’t pony up 1 million to him (as a 10th rounder) for nothing. Does he have good range? I hope he does. I’m sick and tired of Jeter’s range, and his crappyiness altogether.

SG, what do you think of Angelini?

I think he’s 18 and we have no idea what will happen to him.  He’s at least three years away from even being a possibility.  Until he starts playing in AA I wouldn’t pay him any mind.

The Yankees wouldn’t pony up 1 million to him (as a 10th rounder) for nothing.

Well, Drew Henson and Jackson Melian would disagree.  Prospects are called prospects because they are uncertain propositions.  If they pan out, great, but the odds are against it.

If the Yankees are going to wait for Angelini to move Jeter it’s going to be a rough few years.  I hope they will do something before that, even as a stopgap.  I still imagine Jeter will be the SS in 2008.

Jeter will be the SS in 2008, a new SS is not even on their radar.  Jeter will probably bounce back a bit offensively and defensively next year and be one of the better SS in the league again.

one thing i do find fascinating is that during this off-season both Guillen and Tejada may move off of SS.  Tejada is still a superior defensive SS to Jeter, yet the media has been beating the drum for months that he can no longer play SS.  it’s insanely “ironic”, but at the same time it really paves the way for the Yankees to start having those discussions and maybe not take as big a PR hit were they inclined to do so.  it should be less of an “insult” to Jeter to move off SS when there are 2 other “All-Star” shortstops doing the same thing.

that said, jeter is still near the bottom of the yankees’ concerns.

i think Mo will be back, but A-Rod and Posada MUST be retained.  if they get away, the Yankees are looking at 3rd place next year.  i just don’t see any sort of right handed bat out there to make up for that loss.

First, to echo what others have said; I’ll be here during the offseason, but thanks for taking the blog up a notch this season, live-blogging and providing the ever entertaining pie-chart on occasion.

Second - Brian Cronin said this in a previous thread, or maybe it was someone else, but going into this offseason is very different than going into the others after ALDS loses. Knowing we’ve got Hughes, Joba and Kennedy ready to handle rotation spots next year makes me feel good. The team is on it’s way to being a pitching focused organization again - there are all those arms percolating in AAA and AA too. Gone are the days of having Jaret Wright start game 4 in the ALDS, or a hobbled 45 year old Clemens for that matter.

Third - A. Phil, don’t be holding your breath on high-school draftees. I’m not saying he won’t become anything, but Carmen Angelini is 18 years old and had exactly 1 at-bat in the GCL. He’s a looooong way off. Hoping for a healthy Jeter next year, and in 2009, and 2010 is probably your best bet.

The young pitching is exciting, no doubt about it.  yup is right about 3rd place if they don’t resign Posada, ARod and Mo, though (not to mention Pettitte!).  As good as the young pitchers are, there would be a massive dropoff without those guys. 

I’m excited about the 2008 rotation.  I’m intrigued by the bullpen possibilities, but not exactly confident.  The position players, well, obviously that comes back to ARod & Posada.

This La Russa crap I’m hearing has me a little upset. The father of the four hour game has never been one of my favorites. During the Bash Brother days in oakland when the A’s constantly beat the snot out of the Yankees, THE GENIUS would always use at least four and sometimes five pitchers against us . With a six run lead!! Time after time. I even recall Scooter protesting. I felt uncomfortable even wanting St. Louis to beat Boston simply because of this man.

i think we’ll hear all the big names tossed around.  i don’t see the yankees hiring TRL.

i think it will be Girardi in the end.

End of the year is always the perfect time to thank SG et al for the work on the blog. I personally waste hours of my day here - thanks guys.

The frustrating thing about this lost is there doesn’t seem to be any roster overhaul that needs to be done, unless they really want to get creative.  When faced with the Indians or Angels, you didn’t know which to prefer because the fact of the matter is that this team is not equipped to play well in a 5 game series. They damn near pulled it off this year (who knows what would have happened if it weren’t for the bugs), but until we have a pitcher who is a lights out legitimate ace, these 5 game series are going to be tough to get past.

Perhaps Joba can be that guy.  He was essentially unhittable through 30 innings, and only started to wear down when he was used everyday for a week.

I’d like to see them hold the roster the way it is, possibly make a move for a role playing 1B - not a Teixera type but just someone who can definitely give you a 100 OPS+ and strong defense (that could be a tall order considering this year’s FA class), and shed some roster spots that aren’t being used corectly (Giambi in particular.)  They have a lot of young pitching to make the bullpen what it needs to be.

What J said.  With an emphasis on the first two sentences.

Max Kellerman is GREAT today.  Even greater than usual- not puling punches in calling out the media for being “idiots” in a variety of ways.  As far as the offseason goes, I wouldn’t mind seeing the same team come back.  While I am somewhat ambivilant regarding Torre’s return, if it helps The Yankees bring back Mo, Posasa, and ARod I say keep him.  Torre is an excellent manager over the course of a full season (because he manages personalities well in a volatile environment) but his in-game tact is questionable.  But please NO TONY LARUSSA.  If we want to make changes, consider moving Giambi and possibly shaking up the OF.  Andruw Jones may be interesting in a short-term deal but I have my suspicions about his physical deterioration.  Jeter is our SS and will remain one of the best in baseball despite below average range.  AROd must be back and will have a huge 2008 postseason.  HUGE. 

p.s. I recently said I wish the Sawks plane crashed…meaning it metaphorically as in the plane representing their season…don’t want to upset the sensitive people out there.

Where is the LaRussa shit coming from?

I wouldn’t be opposed to experimenting with Shelley Duncan as the full the 1B. Perhaps his OPS in 100 ABs is a before-adjustment-by-AL-pitchers phenomenom, but I’d take my chances with that. He’s a powerful righty that helps balance the line up, and you’ve got to take into account the energy he brings this team.

Which bullpen possibilities intrigue you Rob? 

Seriously, this is the black hole that must be addressed once the Jorge/Alex/Mo signings are resolved.

Put Joba in the rotation and you have essentially no one who can be trusted other than Mariano.  And the problem is that free agency is normally not a reliable route to go for rebuilding a pen.

Vizcaino, if memory serves, is a free agent who will probably get 3 years from someone.  Cashman will probably stay away and should.  Since the rotation has some depth and the pen doesn’t, I genuinely wonder if Joba will be kept out there.  Though I was never happy with the conversion of Righetti in the mid-80s.

All this is largely moot until A-Rod makes his decision.  He’d be a damn fool to leave.  Imagine to boos if/when he returns to NY.  The knock on him, other than the un-clutch thing, is that he’s a bloodless mercenary.  Leaving confirms that in the minds of many, thus damaging the brand and the legacy.

Trading Giambi or Damon is not a must—only if value can be had in return, in the person of a decent reliever.  Wouldn’t be surprised to break camp next year with a Minky (re-signed at low dollars)-Phillips platoon at 1B.  Or maybe Betemit-Phillips.

I have very conflicted feelings re. Joe.  Anyone who followed this team from roughly 1976-1988—and there don’t seem to be that many of you in the RLYW community—has to acknowledge the value of a manager who is a stable grown-up that commands respect from the clubhouse.  Y’know, as opposed to a mercurial and insecure drunk who challenges his players to fistfights.  I think the focus on the quantitative elements of the game—for all its value—obscures certain realities about organizational politics and dynamics.

At the same time, Joe is not a great in-game strategist and that is a source of concern.  If he were to go, my first choice would be Girardi, though I was surprised that he acquired a rep in Fla as a hothead…I always thought of him asa pretty serene guy.  Love ya Donnie Baseball, but this guy just doesn’t strike me as managerial timber.  Please no LaRussa; Christ, why not Dick Williams or Dallas Green?

Oh and the thought that Derek Jeter won’t be the Yankee SS in 2008 is so absurd it barely deserves to be addressed.

Good point re. Shelley, j.  I was forgetting about him.  Why not a Betemit/Shelley platoon at 1B?

FROG Bill Madden.

I’ve always been amazed that you can’t take a “baby sitter” like Joe Torre and give him a nerdy stats guy as a bench coach to get the best of both worlds.  I like Torre the person, I think he’s a good face for the yankees, and I think he handles the egos of his players very well.  He just shouldn’t be allowed to make any decisions.

The thought that Jeter won’t play SS is absurd only because it won’t happen.  Whether or not it should happen is a different story.

B-Man.. I just reread Number 1 by Martin and Golenbock for the first time since 81. His ma nurtured him into becoming a psycho. Billy proudly tells anecdotes of Mama fighting with neighbors,cops and other family members. It’s incredible..That fella was going to be a trainwreck no matter what path he chose. Its a fascinating read.

By the way, interesting point from a Cards fan on Kellerman Show- supposedly LaRussa brings Duncan with him (who is Shelly’s father) and this guy- who seemed VERY knowledgable raved about Duncan’s ability to mold bullpen arms…although the Leo Mazzone and Rick Peterson star has already faded.

As someone who has absolutely followed the Yankees since the ‘70s, I really appreciate Joe Torre for coming on TV again and again and not being full of shit.  It’s made a big difference in my enjoyment of the team, and in general, I think his ability to command the respect of the assorted huge egos that inevitably come with the huge talents has outweighed his in-game foibles.  I wouldn’t mind seeing Joe come back. 

However, he’s not going to manage the team forever.  He’s getting older, and he’s already proved everything he ever needs to prove.  When he came out of the dugout in ‘96 to look in Cone’s eyes, he had a John Wayne-like presence.  These days, he seems more like Dad coming out to check on his boys.  From the organization’s point of view, this is a good time to bring in someone hungrier.  His contract is up.  The team is changing.  The new manager is likely to come from within the family: Girardi or Mattingly.  As far as the effect on free agents go, I don’t think Posada is going to reject playing for the guy who mentored him into being an all-star, etc.,etc.  If the Mets fired Randolph, and the Yankees hired him, I know at least Randolph would be ecstatic. 

My fear is that Cashman is going to pay the price of George’s impatience, which I think is a far more dangerous move.  We all like the organization’s newly enlightened approach.  I’m more afraid of an old-school GM than any possible new manager.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

-Rogers Hornsby

Also, does anyone know where to find the video of Tino hitting the ALCS home run in 2000?  It used to be on youtube, but I can’t seem to find it anymore.

I love that video.

Hey guys,

I have no doubt that Jeter is a mediocre defensive shortstop at best, but what are our other options?  If you move him to the OF, then how do you split time with Abreu, Cabrera, Damon, and Matsui?  If you move him to 1B, how do you split time with Shelley, Betemit, and Giambi?  And who the hell plays SS then?

I’m sure you could devise all sorts of transactions to trade some of those players and shift people around, but any realistic scenario involves Alberto Gonzales or some other no hit/good fielding type to play SS.  And is there any net value in doing that?

Seriously, if the Yankees just go into 2008 with a similar team as they had in 2007, is that so bad?  Resign Mo, Posada, and A-Rod, pick up some bullpen arms, maybe explore other options at 1B (although I think a Shelley/Betemit platoon would outperform most of the available options).  Maybe you try and do something with Damon or Giambi, but that’s about all I’d really do.

-Nate

Looking at the chart—Was Abreu’s defense really that bad during the ALDS?  (Maybe I’ve blocked it from my memory but I can’t remember him blowing a game in the outfield.)

In any event, I do think that Abreu, Giambi, and Farnsworth (and technically Pavano) are part of the reason that the Yankees are the highest paid team in the league instead of the best team in the league.

Personally, I wish they’d bring Joe back.  I can’t think of another manager who would have done a better regular season job than Joe did for the Yankees this year and, other than not trying harder to halt play during the bug attack, I really didn’t disagree (before seeing the result) with all that many of his moves during the playoffs.

And to second J’s comment, thanks SG and everybody else for making even the tough parts of this year entertaing.

Thurm, it’s been almost that long since I read it myself.  If you get the chance, pick up Golenbock’s biography after Billy’s death, which is an even more-unvarnished look at the man and his demons.

In the 80s, I was actually a huge Billy enthusiast.  Perhaps because I was an undersized high school secondbaseman who had to compensate with fearless moxie what I lacked in natural ability.  Now that I’m a grown-up, I can see that the man, for all his real gifts, was a dangerous psychotic.  It was so hard to be Yankee fan during the ‘83-‘88 period (which covers the last 3 Billy incarnations I believe).  Immensely talented teams knocked off-course by off-the-field shenanigans, lacking the X factor or the confidence of a champion.

Tony LaRussa batted Miguel Cairo 3rd in a game this year. That bullet alone should be enough to disqualify from managing the Yankees. It might even disqualify him from selling hot dogs at the Stadium.

Jeter at -3 and Wang at -9.  Kind of sums it up.  Its very disconcerting that such a good offense seems to disappear come October.  One more year in the old Yankee Stadium.  Hopefully it will end in grand fashion.

I don’t want to be the Atlanta Braves.

“Which bullpen possibilities intrigue you Rob?”

I was being positive.  Britton, Edwar, Ohlendorf, and some guys who are still in the minors.  Edwar may not ever pan out, but he IS interesting.  I’d like to see Britton get more of a trial.  Oh, and how about Kei Igawa for LOOGY?  Intriguing, no? 

Vizcaino… I agree, pass on him unless he’s an easy cheap resign.

My fear is that Cashman is going to pay the price of George’s impatience, which I think is a far more dangerous move.

Agreed.  Wholeheartedly.  Cashman actually has a vision.  If one of them has to go, I choose Joe.

The thought that Jeter won’t play SS is absurd only because it won’t happen.

And that was my point, j.  You can make the case, but there’s just no evidence that the organization agrees with RLYW majority sentiment on this matter.

You can make the case, but there’s just no evidence that the organization agrees with RLYW majority sentiment on this matter.

Oh, I agree. However, I think that Jeter’s defense at SS, while a problem, is low enough on the totem pole that if it becomes the biggest problem (assuming it doesn’t get much worse) then things aren’t that bad. I’d say the bullpen, issues at 1B and hitting LHP are higher on the list of things that need to be addressed.

The offense being shut down by good pitching is exactly what the Yankees used to do to other teams, back when the Yankees had the best pitching.  The Texas Rangers, for instance.  It sucks, but there is reason for hope.  One thing I’ll hold on to from this crappy series is Phil Hughes’ performance.  And Andy Pettitte’s awesome game two, and some vague fond memories of Cano hitting.  The rest is a nightmare.

Its very disconcerting that such a good offense seems to disappear come October.

did they really disappear last night?  4 runs is not an low amount of runs for a postseason game.  and it seemed like they hit a lot of balls hard that were right at people when people were on base and the bloops that were falling in for Cleveland were not falling in for the Yankees.  Lofton’s catch in the 1st comes to mind.  they had what, 11 hits and 2 walks?  3 HRs? 

the problem was not really the offense per se, but the distribution of their hits.  how much of that is just bad luck and how much of it is “clutchitude”, i don’t really know. 

but it’s hard to say a team that hit 3 HRs disappeared offensively.  if they get ANYTHING at all out of Wang, they should be able to win that game considering the bullpen gave them 8 innings of 2 run ball.

but last night aside, your larger point holds.

Fair enough Rob.  It would be nice to have somone else with a track record out there.  Wonder if the Braves could make use of Damon now that Andruw is gone.  They have an Australian reliever who was pretty strong this year.  Hopefully something could be wrung out of the Padres for Igawa—wonder what it would take to get Cla Meredith?

Someone; Torre, Girardi, God; must tell Jeter he has to move to LF for the good of the team. That Matsui doesn’t have the range anymore and Jeter is the best (if not the only) solution out there.

My dream lineup next year:
1)Cabrera- CF
2)Jeter- LF
3)Abreu- RF
4)A-Rod- SS
5)Posado- C
6)Matsui- 1B
7)Cano- 2B
8)Giambi/Duncan-DH
9)Betemit- 3B

If you want to mess with the batting order, or switch A-Rod’s and Betemit’s positions, fine… but the lineup should look more like this one than the one used this year. I see an improvement defensivily both IF and OF, with some added youth in the lineup, which is getting too freakin’ old.

did they really disappear last night?  4 runs is not an low amount of runs for a postseason game.

More specifically, they didn’t get big hits.  Lofton’s catch was good but it was still a looping fly ball.  How many hard doubles in the gap were run down?
They just never got a big hit with runners in scoring position; and they had plenty of opportunities.

B-Man..Remember when Billy elevated Alphonso Pulido over Rags after Rags blew a coupleof saves? Alphonso Pulido!  To put it in perspective we would have had Sean Henn closing this past April.  Those 80’s teams never had any starting pitching, aging Guidry was the best,Tommy John, Ed whitson,Dennis Rassmussen, Rick Rhoden and who could forget the great Britt burns.

They just never got a big hit with runners in scoring position; and they had plenty of opportunities.

oh, of course. everything you say is correct, and i am just rambling.

they certainly blew a lot of opportunities.  but to win that game, you are asking your offense to score 7 runs against a very good team.  is that reasonable?

is 7 runs reasonable when you are playing the cream of the crop?  are those missed opportunities the failure of the hitters or the work of the pitcher?  what about Cleveland in game 2?  was it their hitters “choking” inning after inning, or was it Pettitte “stepping it up” when it counted?  i don’t have the answer, but i’m pretty sure the 1996-2001 Yankees didn’t win all those game scoring 7 runs a game. 

part of the problem is that Yankee fans expect the same 6 runs per game they get during the regular season when teams spread the innings around among more pitchers and you see more lower-tier relievers. 

4 runs has to win you the game sometimes. but that can’t happen when your starter gives up 4 runs in 1+ inning.  it just can’t.

and if your starters aren’t going to be effective, all the offense is doing is delaying the inevitable for a few more games.  if Wang is going to suck, the Yankees were going to get SPANKED by the Red Sox.  i have no doubt about that.

it’s all about pitching.  and the yankees didn’t pitch this series.

When it comes down to it, Cleveland got extremely lucky with all their two out hits (and swamp of a park), and the Yankees didn’t.

I just realized that Jose Molina is on the list of FA’s. He needs to be resigned, too.

If they do anything this offseason, it should be via trade. I don’t want to waste a draft pick on anyone in this FA class.

Get rid of Giambi. Make Shelley the starting 1st basemen. Groom Cox, Robertson, etc… ETA for Tabata-2008. Same goes for Jackson.

I think it’s wishful thinking that A-rod would be a plus or average defender at SS anymore.  His body has gotten heavier—not fatter but more muscular.  That said, I’d like to see Jeter in the outfield too. 

If they can resign A-rod and Posada—and that’s a big if—no team can afford a light-highting glove wizard at SS more than the Yankees—especially since Gonzales hasn’t yet proven he won’t hit.  If I remember SG’s last spreadsheet correctly, this year for the first time, Jeter’s bat and D were a wash.  His D isn’t going to get better.

I have some belief that Cashman got Gonzales for a better purpose than to be a utility inflelder.  No one has been projecting him as a utility man—the line on him has been that if he can hit some he’ll be a major league starter.  From a PR point of view, it sounds desperately unlikely.  But the organization may use this latest first-round exit as an opportunity to justify large changes they feel are overdue: like a new manager and a new shortstop.

Ed, I don’t see why we need to take a really big offensive hit at SS since we already have Betemit.

Reporter from the locker room: “very somber, players upset- everyone knows there will be big changes next year.” WHY?  THERE SHOULD BE NO (few)CHANGES.  THOSE GUYS ARE GREAT!

oh, of course. everything you say is correct, and i am just rambling.

So am I.  You clarified what I said.  My head is a bit…muddy, right now.

And it really is all about pitching, you are correct.  Wang is the bigger culprit than the offense.

Sleepyirv, you want to put 2 players at positions they’ve never before played in the major leagues?  And A-Rod at short where he hasn’t been since George Bush was popular?  I dunno.

True ‘nuff, Thurm, about the 80s starting pitching.  Though I think if you looked at the numbers it wasn’t bad as you’re remembering.  Alphonso Pulido—wow, I haven’t thought about him since before I shaved, and my life’s been a lot better for it.  I recall he was a screwball-throwing lefty.  One of the most depressing nights of my Yankee fandom involved Cecilio Guante coughing up a walkoff grandslam to Alan Trammell at old Tiger Stadium.  1988 I believe.

1st Base and Left Field aren’t the most complicated positions in the world, they have the offseason to figure out their subtle mysteries. I can understand if A-Rod should be left at 3rd, you just have Betemit play SS then.

The other thing about Jeter is that it stands to reason that the corner OF defense will only get worse as Abreu/Damon/Matsui get a year older (although I think Melky will be even better next year, hopefully avoiding an inside the park homerun again.) It feels like a waste of time to even talk about it because the chances of it not happening are so high.  But it is frustrating to imagine we have a better team with the guys on our roster, but for whatever reason they are just unwilling to make the change.

If Jeter’s D > Damon’s D in left (we at least know his arm is better), and Gonzalez’s D > Jeter’s D at SS, then you’d have to do this if the improved defense outweights the loss in offense from Damon to Gonzalez. You can also rationalize this is if allows you to flip Damon and cash for some bullpen help or a 1B.

It feels like a waste of time to even talk about it because the chances of it not happening are so high. 

And there’s the rub. 

Is there any evidence at all that anyone in the organization recognizes a problem with Jeter’s defense?  Would be interesting if someone did and the ultimatum to Torre was you keep your job only by selling Jeter on a move to the OF

PeteAbe seems to think it’s all over but the closing of the coffin in re. Torre.  His list of potential replacements makes me want to hurl—egomaniac Bobby Valentine and control freak Buck Showalter, along with Mattingly, Girardi, LaRussa.

re Kellerman:when he talks baseball, he’s the best and today’s show with Brian Kenney was great, but some of his non sports schtick is just too narcissistic and juvenille for my taste.  I preferred him when he did the 7pm show before he decided he was a big star.

Cleveland is a team built to win a short series, and though they clearly outplayed us, their two out RISP percentage was off the charts.  Of course the goat was Wang delivering two of his worst three or four performances of the year in a four game span.  If our young pitchers stay healthy and continue to develop we might be looking at some awesome teams in the coming years.

Is there any evidence at all that anyone in the organization recognizes a problem with Jeter’s defense?

I would say the only thing that indicates this is that Cashman grabbed Alberto Gonzalez from Arizona. I don’t remember enough about the trade from last year - but I seem to recall there were a lot of names floating around that Cashman could have gone with, although maybe he was stonewalled on guys like Owings and Montero (both of whom I would have tried to get before Gonzalez and Ohlendorff.)

guys, i am as tough on jeter’s defense as anyone, but he is NOT about to replaced with Alberto Gonzalez, nor should he be.

that’s just crazy talk.

jeter doesn’t have to bounce back very far offensively and defensively to be a very good player.  it is very likely that Gonzalez’s offense will make him below replacement level. 

i have no doubt that Jeter will be a much better player than Gonzalez next year.

i am open to moving Jeter off SS, but there needs to be a viable major leaguer taking that position. 

a Johnny Damon+ for Edgar Renteria trade makes a lot of sense for both teams, but it’s not going to happen.

While I am somewhat ambivilant regarding Torre’s return, if it helps The Yankees bring back Mo, Posasa, and ARod I say keep him.

Yes.  I’d much rather put up with Torre’s managerial eccentricities than put up with next year’s team absent Pettitte, Posada, Rivera, and Rodriguez.

Or maybe Betemit-Phillips.

Wilson-Phillips?

Anyone who followed this team from roughly 1976-1988—and there don’t seem to be that many of you in the RLYW community—has to acknowledge the value of a manager who is a stable grown-up that commands respect from the clubhouse.

You mean like maybe Bob “pinch hit for my ace in the fourth inning” Lemon?

pick up Golenbock’s biography after Billy’s death, which is an even more-unvarnished look at the man and his demons

Golenbock is a hack and that book is a pure hatchet job of a guy who wasn’t around to defend himself.  It is of course true that Billy was a complete train wreck of a human being, but the only thing unvarnished about “Wild, High and Tight” is Golenbock’s unbridled hostility for every person in the book.

it is very likely that Gonzalez’s offense will make him below replacement level.

Well, that certainly is it. And not to cherry pick, but a guy who hasn’t hit in the minor leagues doesn’t always translate to a guy who doesn’t hit in the major leagues. Cano’s MiLB and Gonzalez’s MiLB line are comparable, but Cano really mashed in 05 at AAA while Gonazalez has pretty much sucked ass. Cano also did it at 22 while Gonzalez is now at the end of his age 24 season. It looks like Cashman tried to make something happen here, hoping Gonzalez would find something at AAA and it just didn’t work out, and in the process he missed out on getting someone useful, or at a lower level with higher potential, in the RJ deal. But at least it can be viewed as someone in the organization recognizing that a SS is going to be needed in the near future, and that’s somewhat comforting.

Am I the only who thinks Betemit can play SS? He won’t be a gold glover, but will certainly be better than Jeter… and his bat will be better than the AG.

If he stops hitting righty, sure. He looks like he has a tennis racket up ther.

Jeter’s defensive projection coming into the season was -2, IIRC. I’m guessing next year, it will be something like -8. SG can let me know if I’m off or something, but I bet A) Betemit will not be better then Jeter next year and B) Jeter will play much better in the field next year, making you all look silly for over reacting to one years worth of defensive data, in an year plagued by injuries. A. Phil has an excuse, he’s 10. Everyone else should know better.

Maybe a Betemit/Gonzalez platoon then.

That’s “a year”, I hate accidentally using an, makes me look like a moron.

Am I the only who thinks Betemit can play SS?

No, you’re not.  But the list of reasonably well-informed people who think he can’t is getting somewhat long-ish.  Cox and Schuerholz went out and got Renteria when Furcal left.  Would they have done that if they thought Betemit could play SS?  In fact, the Braves moved him off SS when he was a 21 year old in AAA.

We should expect some bounce back from Jeter defensively next year.  I’d project his zone rating to be .810 next year, which is around a -10.  I’m playing around with my own projection system for next year but it’s not done yet, right now it says Jeter should hit .321/.392/.468 next season, so overall he would be +25 on offense above an average SS, +15 overall.

Jeter shouldn’t be a problem next season.  I’m more worried about the bullpen than anything, assuming they bring back Rodriguez, Posada, Pettitte, Mo, and Abreu.  I like the rotation if it’s Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, with Igawa, Rasner and Karstens for depth.

For some reason I suspect next year’s team will look a lot like this year’s, with the exception that I suppose there’s some logic to trading Damon or Matsui, who essentially play the same position at this point.  A-Rod is a question mark, but I really have a hard time seeing Posada and Mo anywhere else. 

My thoughts on the points above:  a) Wilson Betemit will not be in the Yankees starting lineup next year, because he’s a pretty average player as far as I can tell; b)  Jeter is the starting SS; c)  Giambi is not going anywhere because his trade value is negative; d)  Shelley Duncan will not be in the starting lineup because he would strike out about 800 times as a full-time player.

A. Phil has an excuse, he’s 10.

Wow.  That makes taking all those AP classes a lot more impressive.

Wilson Betemit will not be in the Yankees starting lineup next year, because he’s a pretty average player as far as I can tell

An average player backing up all four infield spots is pretty damned valuable, though.  I bet he could even handle and OF corner in a pinch.  He just should never bat right-handed again.

I’ve got Betemit projected to hit .264/.333/.459 next season.  Not sure about his defense, his career numbers everywhere except third are poor, but he hasn’t played enough anywhere to make those meaningful.

Like MC says though, the fact that the Braves moved him off short when they had a need is probably a red flag.

Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, with Igawa, Rasner and Karstens for depth

Hey, don’t forget about Moose!

Seriously, though. What are the bullpen options for next year?

Rivera - Sign him. He doesn’t have to be the closer for his entire contract.
Vizcaino - I doubt they resign him
Farnsworth - I doubt they trade him, but he needs to go or needs to figure something out.
Britton - I’ll take him, but I’d like to see him get in shape next year.
Ramirez - Something tells me this kid caught them off guard this year. He’s an asset if he can develop another pitch.
Villone - Yawn.
Veras - Good tools, but put him in the same boat as Ramirez. It has to be more than good tools, and soon.
Bruney - See Villone.
Ohlendorff - Good stuff and throws strikes. I expect him to be in the mix as well.
Henn - Please, no. Never again in fact.
Igawa/Rasner/Karstens - Ok for long man, spot start duty. Igawa’s value should be massaged so he can be trade bait.

And then there’s the guys we didn’t see that we’re hopeful can help:
Sanchez - Understandbly forgotten because of the TJ surgery. I don’t know how realistic it is to expect that he can contribute, but he’s probably the pitcher with the most ability in the system that hasn’t thrown a pitch at the MLB level.
Cox - Good ERA/WHIP at AA in 77 innings. If he can make the jump (which I think Cashman/Torre thought he would this year but he was injured) he’ll help out.

As yup points out, there’s no sensible replacement for Jeter at short right now, and there’s still fair room for improvement from him both offensively and defensively next year.  I’m thinking Jeter remains at short in 2008 (obviously) and is the starting shortstop opening day 2009 in the new stadium, and then he starts to get some games at DH and another position, leading to a full-time position switch for 2010.

what does a Duncan/Betemit platoon project to be at 1st?  That seems like a nice, cheap alternative, and it also takes care of a backup to Arod/Jeter/Cano.

I don’t think this team can afford to keep all three of Matsui/Damon/Giambi.  Too left handed and too poor defensively.

Giambi can only go to an AL team.  Scratch the AL East, and I don’t see any good fits in the central.  However, he’d be a good fit in the AL West.

Damon could probably pass for CF for the right team.  A team going after Jones might consider Damon a decent plan B.

Matsui won’t be disrespected w/ a trade.

I think Ohlendorf will be fine in 2008, making a nice addition to the bullpen.

Don’t recall Joba pitching everyday for a week.

I would not bring Alex back, let that circus move to another town.

I’d still try and sign Wang to a long term deal now, even after his blow-p in two starts.

And try and sign Cano long term as well.

MLBTR has a discussion on teams in need of LH DH’s, done for trying to figure out where Bonds will play next year.  I suppose you can take their rationale and run with it for Giambi, except the moving parts that are added are Giambi’s huge 07 salary ($21M) and no trade clause. I suppose if Giambi thinks he can again become a full time player (since it is apparent he’s not going to be that on the Yankees) and Cashman were willing to eat a lot of his salary, he could be moved.

Damon, on the other hand, I like keeping. Between Melky, Damon, Abreu, and Matsui, you have a full outfield/DH platoon.  I don’t know if it’s too early to say that 1 of Austin Jackson/Brett Gardner/Jose Tabata can figure into the mix (I imagine AJax is the most likely of those) but I think I’d take that as my OF for 2008. Damon’s partial NTC is intriguing though and should probably be explored.

Don’t recall Joba pitching everyday for a week.

Tongue-in-cheek. I made some typos, too.

huge 07 salary = huge 08 salary

I’m more worried about the bullpen than anything

Right on, SG.  If Joba moves to the rotation, where I think the Yankees need him most, that leaves Mariano as the lone reliable arm in the bullpen.  That gap will need to be filled.

As for Betemit, I think he’d be terrific as the left-handed half of a first base platoon/utility player, but I don’t think he represents a sensible replacement for Jeter at short.

If Giambi is trade-able, you trade Giambi and slot Damon in at LF and Matsui in at DH.  For the 4th/5th OF’ers, you have Duncan and possibly Sardinha.  By mid-season next year, you have Gardner and Jackson in the mix to help out as well (I don’t see Tabata being ready yet).

If you can’t trade Giambi, you either need to be willing to DFA him (won’t happen), bench him (could happen, but unlikely), or look to trade one of Matsui/Damon.  Damon I think is more tradeable, so…

I thought I read somewhere that the Yankees could buy out the final year of Giambi’s contract for 5 mil-does anybody know anything about that?  Nothing in Sardinha’s ML career indicates that he’s major league caliber.  Jeter will be the SS next year.  Hopefully Sanchez will be healthy and good next year; that Ohlendorf will develop and we can add a lefty reliever so that the bullpen will be good and we can figure out what to do at 1b next year.

from cott’s:

Jason Giambi 1b-dh
7 years/$120M (2002-08), plus $22M 2009 club option

  * signed as a free agent 12/01
  * $17M signing bonus (paid over 6 years: $3M in 02, $4M in 03, $4M in 04, $4.5M in 05, $1M in 06, $0.5M in 07)
  * 02:$8M, 03:$9M, 04:$10M, 05:$11M, 06:$18M, 07:$21M, 08:$21M, 09:$22M club option ($5M buyout)
  * full no-trade clause
  * 3 years/$9.3M (1999-2001)
      o 99:$2.2M, 00:$3.1M, 01:$4M
  * agent: Arn Tellum
  * ML service: 11.095

Don’t forget, we stand to take several FA’s off the books in 08, most of which will be type A (or at least type B) if they resign somewhere (I think).  Mussina, Abreu, Giambi, Pavano, Pettite (I’m probably forgetting some). That could be a huge draft year and help us with the dearth of position player prospects.

That said, let’s hope Clemens resigns somewhere in the NL next year so we can get the draft pick!

you can’t offer guys like Giambi, Mussina, or Pavano arbitration though.

i don’t mean you “can’t” like it’s not allowed, but that you shouldn’t.

there is probably nothing to prevent Giambi from accepting arbitration, and i assume they will want him gone.

what does a Duncan/Betemit platoon project to be at 1st?

I’ve got Duncan projected at .274/.344/.516 right now but I’m still trying to figure out how much minor league data to include in my projections.  A Duncan/Betemit platoon projects to be about average on offense.

Duncan:  .274/.344/.516
Betemit:.264/.333/.459
Overall if platooned: .268/.337/.478
Average 1B, 2003-2007: .273/.349/.457

A little less OBP, a little more SLG, but overall it would be average.

I’d expect Betemit to be a plus defender at first, and Duncan minus, so overall they’d probably end up average again.

You could do worse, especially for the price.  The Yankees haven’t gotten above average production out of first base for a couple of years, so I’d take it.

And yeah, I forgot about Moose.  I guess you can slot him in as #5, especially if you have to watch Hughes, Joba’s, and Kennedy’s innings.

wait, not to sound dumb, but those projections are limited to the specific handed pitchers that they favor, right?  as in, you expect duncan to be .274/.344/.516 against lefties?  and so on and so forth.

b/c if so, i would have expected them to combine to be a little better than average.

there is probably nothing to prevent Giambi from accepting arbitration, and i assume they will want him gone.

Right, but I think it is still true that if a team signs a player BEFORE the arbitration deadline (Dec 7?), they have to forfeit their picks.  Though it may seem obvious that for any player where arbitration is in question, to wait until after the deadline, it happens every year where players like that are signed before December.  Who knows?  Probably at least one of the players the Yankees wouldn’t offer arb to, will be signed before Dec 7.

Slow down there Cowboy Popup. You know as well as I do that Jeter is below average in the field. Yeah, he was injured, but how about the previous year and the year before that? Injury? Banged up? So is every other ballplayer. It’s not as if Jeter is going to get any better at SS. He’ll be 34 next year and he’s not getting any better. A SS replacement would be viable now rather than later as Jeter will certainly get worse, and as a result cost the Yankees games with his defense. In addition, I only mention Angelini because if he is the real deal, and he reaches his potential, he would almost definitely replace Jeter. Oh yeah, I’m not 10; I’m 17.

And CP, I know you were joking about the age.

No, those projections don’t consider platoon split.  I think the league average platoon ratio for righties is 1.1, for lefties it’s 1.2, so…

Duncan (vs L): .285/.360/.540
Betemit (vs R): .276/.350/.480
Platoon: .278/.353/.500

That would +10 offensively over an average 1B.

Hey guys:

I won’t say much since you probably don’t want to hear from Sox fans right now. Just a thanks to RLYW (operators and assorted regulars) for running a great and interesting site, and expect more of the same as the hot stove gets fired up.

I thought the Yankees were as good as anyone but not ideally built for October. Obviously the pitching is about to correct itself, and the Yankees will be very serious contenders as early as next year or whenever their up-and-coming pitching is all sufficiently mature (warning: it’s usually not at age 22). I do fault Torre for not getting them ready for October: too many burnt-out arms, etc. This has been a problem even in the last few years when the Yankees weren’t scrambling for a playoff spot. So they could probably use some new direction. Torre won when the Yankees were inarguably the best team, he’s also a fine person and steady presence, but didn’t have a lot of magic up his sleeve. Not a sin.

Anyway, my only relief is knowing I don’t have to watch 35 hours of nailbiting ALCS games. Obviously Sox-Yanks is a cycle that will be renewing itself every spring for the foreseeable future. [Also I have a hunch that Toronto’s pitching will make them a rather noisy interloper sometime very soon.] Good luck wading through the big decisions this month.

A.Phil—

Angelini is barely older than you are.  Forget “real deal;” even if he’s the second coming he’s three years away.  What are you going to do in the meantime?  There aren’t a lot of real attractive options out there.  Hence, we are left with hoping that a healthier Jeter will suck a little bit less on defense.

How about this for a nightmare scenario:

The Mets uncharacteristically realize what it would take to get some mindshare in New York and bring in Torre as the manager.  Yeah, I know that they said Willie would be back, but that was before they knew Joe would be available.  Joe brings a couple of Yankee heroes with him as part of the bargain.  Jorge and Mariano don’t even have to move.  Sure it would require them to tear up their budget, but it might just be worth it.

This won’t happen because no one in the Mets organization will think big enough to do this, but if they did it would be huge.

EB what are you doing out there in LA ? Writing horror movies? The thought ofMo in a Mets clownsuit made my friigin skin crawl.  Don’t the Mets have a HOF closer already? With his own theme song.

How about this for a nightmare scenario:

While I think the Mets wouldn’t pull the trigger on something that grand, I could easily see a scenario where Torre leaves, New York becomes a circus (Steinbrenner makes a bunch of blowhard statements, A-Rod opts out, etc), and Torre goes to the Cardinals and Jorge and Mo follow.  If Torre is let go, let’s hope Cashman can guide the team through the turmoil and keep everything steady.

Torre, Posada and Mo all sign with the Mets.  Then the Yankees dump Cashman and pry Pat Gillick away from the Phils, with IPK as compensation.  Gillick immediately trades Cabrera and Hughes for Helton.  Then he signs Andruw Jones at 22 per for 7.  Then he talks Kevin Brown out of retirement.  Then John Sterling is elected President. 

I’m not saying your scenario is that far-fetched, EB.  I’m just trying to express my suffering at the thought.

I’m just impressed that no one bit on the “we shouldn’t re-sign A-Rod” bait.

Well done, fellas.

Why is it “bait”?

Oh, right, we should all think the same, this team will never win another WS if Alex walks.

After last nights game a few posters showed their true rooting colors when they posted that they felt the season was a success after Alex hit a HR. The team is down in flames and these guys were happy because Alex hit one out.

Sorry not to think in lockstep with y’all.

Right, but I think it is still true that if a team signs a player BEFORE the arbitration deadline (Dec 7?), they have to forfeit their picks.

This is what happened with Soriano, I believe. He was signed by the Cubs way before the arbitration deadline, so there is the formality of offering it to him, but he technically can’t accept it because he’s already entered into the new contract. The legal-ese may not be correct, but I think you’re right that if a team scoops up your FA before December 7th, you get their pick.

Giambi is probably a question mark as to whether that would happen. The Yankees obviously won’t offer him arbitration, so the wait will be to see if there is a market for him and if two teams can cause him to sign a contract before December 7th.  As for Abreu, Mussina and (gasp) even Pavano, I can see those guys finding homes quickly.

The team is down in flames and these guys were happy because Alex hit one out.

I’m confused - is that a good thing or bad thing?  Anger from the Yankees loss can only come if you buy into the assumption that the Yankees are mandated to win the WS every year. I was glad to see Alex hit a homerun - it brought us closer in the game and it will probably prevent us from reliving this “ARod sucks in October” story for the next 3 months.

SG, how about a poll. Give Alex whatever he wants, or not. You word it as you see fit.

He was signed by the Cubs way before the arbitration deadline, so there is the formality of offering it to him, but he technically can’t accept it because he’s already entered into the new contract.

No, there isn’t.  If a FA signs elsewhere before the deadline, the team losing him gets the pick.  Period.  No formalities required.

And Don, you don’t have to think the same as anyone, but it would be interesting to hear something resembling a plan for replacing Rodriguez’ production that goes beyond, “let the circus leave town.”  The Yankees are probably about 100 runs worse off without him.  Where is that coming from?

j, that isn’t my point. Those posters actually said that they felt the season was a success after Alex hit that HR. Your feeling was my feeling, it got us closer. Far removed from the sentiment of other guys, two of ‘em if I recall.

If he has to be a Yankee, I root for him. But he is a strange guy, reminds me of a young Andre Agassi. Only after Agassi won his first Wimbledon, he became a real person. Many people have this feeling re: Alex, that he is a phony through-and-through.

word it as you see fit

Q. Which batting line would you prefer from your regular 3B in 2008?
a) .264/.333/.459
b) .314/.422/.645