Friday, July 3, 2009
Blue Jays (42-38) @ Yankees (45-33), Friday, July 3, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**
Tor: B. Tallet (5-5, 4.47 ERA) NYY: A. Burnett (6-4, 3.93 ERA)
Lineups:
Toronto Blue Jays
M. Scutaro, SS (.279/.380/.414)
A. Hill, 2B (.301/.341/.504)
A. Lind, DH (.315/.389/.556)
S. Rolen, 3B (.333/.394/.494)
L. Overbay, 1B (.264/.386/.492)
V. Wells, CF (.248/.301/.388)
A. Rios, RF (.260/.319/.417)
D. Dellucci, LF (.275/.333/.350)
R. Chavez, C (.271/.271/.371)
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.307/.381/.447)
J. Damon, LF (.288/.364/.533)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.274/.381/.559)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.235/.398/.506)
R. Cano, 2B (.307/.340/.489)
N. Swisher, RF (.240/.369/.492)
H. Matsui, DH (.254/.350/.488)
F. Cervelli, C (.257/.278/.329)
B. Gardner, CF (.289/.367/.421)
Whatever.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Mariners (39-38) @ Yankees (45-32), Thursday, July 2, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
SEA: Jason Vargas (26, LHP, 3-3, 3.79) vs. NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 7-4, 3.55)
Lineups
Seattle Mariners
I. Suzuki, RF (.368/.400/.493)
R. Branyan, 1B (.298/.394/.596)
J. Lopez, 2B (.258/.288/.423)
M. Sweeney, DH (.263/.309/.404)
F. Gutierrez, CF (.278/.346/.409)
K. Johjima, C (.250/.272/.380)
R. Langerhans, LF - - -
C. Woodward, 3B (.333/.400/.333)
R. Cedeno, SS (.136/.212/.252)
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.307/.383/.449)
J. Damon, LF (.292/.369/.541)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.278/.386/.567)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.239/.401/.515)
R. Cano, 2B (.300/.332/.481)
N. Swisher, RF (.238/.371/.494)
H. Matsui, DH (.248/.347/.466)
M. Cabrera, CF (.287/.346/.454)
F. Cervelli, C (.269/.290/.343)
Whatever.
Fangraphs.com: Another Look at HRs at the New Yankee Stadium
Dave Allen at Fangraphs posted an article a couple days ago that looks at how the new outfield dimensions at the Stadium affect home runs. It seems that the general consensus now is that wind has little to do with the increase in long balls. Allen concludes that since the biggest increase in home runs coincides with the largest change in outfield fence dimensions, it is the fence that is responsible.
I’m not totally sold since wind currents might still increase home runs to one part of the park. Plus, without a full season of data, it is hard to make any conclusion just yet as to what is really responsible.
But it’s still an interesting study. Plus, there are some fun graphs for you to gaze upon.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Yankees.com: A-Rod puts Yanks’ win streak at seven
NEW YORK—Like Mark Teixeira before him, Alex Rodriguez has gone from puzzlingly cold to exceptionally hot in a flash. And with him have gone the Yankees. In such a funk as they slogged through the Interleague portion of their schedule, the Yankees won their last two games in Atlanta and have been soaring since.
They are now winning games—and quite a lot of them—with both efficiency and precision. The latest example came on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, when Andy Pettitte thrived, Rodriguez hit a towering home run and the Yankees won their seventh straight game, this one a 4-2 decision over the Mariners.
I love me a winning streak.
Mariners (39-37) @ Yankees (44-32), Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
SEA: Jarrod Washburn (34, LHP, 4-5, 3.22) vs. NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 7-3, 4.38)
Lineups
Seattle Mariners
I. Suzuki, RF (.373/.405/.500)
R. Branyan, 1B (.303/.400/.606)
J. Lopez, 2B (.259/.288/.422)
K. Griffey Jr., DH (.213/.329/.401)
F. Gutierrez, CF (.274/.340/.406)
W. Balentien, LF (.230/.279/.370)
C. Woodward, 3B (.400/.471/.400)
R. Johnson, C (.183/.238/.292)
R. Cedeno, SS (.140/.218/.260)
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.307/.381/.451)
J. Damon, LF (.291/.367/.532)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.275/.384/.568)
A. Rodriguez, DH (.233/.399/.497)
J. Posada, C (.275/.367/.513)
R. Cano, 2B (.300/.332/.482)
N. Swisher, RF (.237/.371/.496)
M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.346/.441)
C. Ransom, 3B (.200/.241/.345)
Whatever.
Yankees.com: Yanks make it six straight, pick up Bruney
NEW YORK—When Brian Bruney came off the disabled list, the plan was to immediately insert him back into the eighth-inning setup role. That was about two weeks ago, when there was nothing but doubt surrounding the Yankees’ bullpen situation. When the bridge to Mariano Rivera was teetering and in danger of crumbling, the Yankees took comfort in knowing Bruney would soon be back.
Then, suddenly, the bullpen without Bruney righted itself. Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson demonstrated they could pitch key innings. Phil Hughes went from being a struggling starter to a seemingly unhittable reliever. It wasn’t that they didn’t need Bruney. Instead, he would fit in as just another cog in a sturdy machine.
It hasn’t been quite that easy. Bruney has struggled of late in the eighth and has not slid back into the bullpen the way the Yankees hoped. True, they won on Tuesday, beating the Mariners, 8-5, in front of 46,181 at Yankee Stadium for their sixth straight victory. But in many ways the contest raised more questions than it answered.
PHil Hughes should pitch the eighth…
Bruney’s struggles were the major negative in last night’s win. I didn’t get to watch the game as I was on the road, but I listened and it sounded like Joba wasn’t great, but serviceable. It sounded like Phil Coke and Hughes were great, and then Bruney just stunk. Of course, John Sterling’s too busy telling us that you can’t predict baseball to give much in the way of details about how the game is actually unfolding, although I digress.
Anyway, the Yankees win coupled with the Red Sox blowing a 10-1 seventh inning lead made for a fun night in the AL East, with the Yankees moving within two games in the loss column of the AL East lead.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Mariners (39-36) @ Yankees (43-32), Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
SEA: Brandon Morrow (24, RHP, 0-3, 5.64) vs. NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 4-2, 3.81)
Lineups
Seattle Mariners
I. Suzuki, RF (.372/.402/.500)
R. Branyan, 1B (.303/.400/.609)
J. Lopez, 2B (.263/.290/.429)
K. Griffey Jr., LF (.218/.332/.409)
M. Sweeney, DH (.275/.322/.422)
F. Gutierrez, CF (.266/.335/.402)
C. Woodward, 3B (.364/.462/.364)
K. Johjima, C (.229/.253/.354)
R. Cedeno, SS (.133/.213/.224)
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.309/.384/.455)
J. Damon, LF (.288/.364/.526)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.276/.387/.575)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.232/.399/.484)
R. Cano, 2B (.297/.330/.482)
J. Posada, C (.272/.359/.513)
H. Matsui, DH (.246/.345/.463)
N. Swisher, RF (.237/.373/.500)
M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.348/.438)
Whatever.
LA Times: Yankees acquire Eric Hinske from Pirates for 2 minor leaguers
NEW YORK (AP) -- Eric Hinske has been acquired by the New York Yankees from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a pair of minor leaguers.
Pittsburgh will receive right-hander Casey Erickson and outfielder Eric Fryer for the utilityman. In addition, the Pirates will give the Yankees cash.
Entering 2009, here were Hinske's offensive projections as a Pirate:
| eric hinske | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR/650 | wOBA |
| 2009 chone projection | 126 | 111 | 17 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 1 | .242 | .333 | .420 | 16 | 82 | 19 | .320 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 126 | 111 | 16 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 27 | 1 | .244 | .331 | .435 | 16 | 84 | 22 | .322 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 126 | 110 | 16 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 1 | .245 | .332 | .435 | 16 | 85 | 22 | .322 |
| 2009 tht projection | 126 | 111 | 16 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 27 | 1 | .251 | .343 | .449 | 17 | 89 | 27 | .332 |
| 2009 zips projection | 126 | 111 | 16 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 1 | .234 | .328 | .430 | 16 | 82 | 20 | .319 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 126 | 111 | 16 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 1 | .240 | .332 | .440 | 17 | 85 | 23 | .324 |
| 2009 average projection | 126 | 111 | 16 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 28 | 1 | .243 | .333 | .435 | 16 | 85 | 22 | .323 |
| 2009 actuals | 126 | 106 | 18 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 3 | .255 | .373 | .368 | 16 | 81 | 4 | .330 |
And his defensive projections in ZR and UZR:
| Player | ZR | Pos | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| eric hinske | 1B | 54 | 45 | 408 | 398 | 30 | 3 | 40 | 66 | 77 | .856 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tm | 3B | 33 | 26 | 246 | 17 | 52 | 3 | 5 | 55 | 69 | .796 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| PIT | LF | 49 | 38 | 323 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 65 | 76 | .858 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| League | RF | 59 | 52 | 424 | 96 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 94 | 111 | .849 | -3 | -2 | -8 | |
| NL | Pos | G | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | DG | exO | RngR | ErrR | UZR | UZR/150 | |
| Age | UZR | 1B | 53 | 46 | 440 | 427 | 33 | 4 | 43 | 52 | 55 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | 3B | 31 | 25 | 261 | 18 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| LF | 47 | 39 | 350 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | ||
| RF | 54 | 49 | 425 | 98 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 49 | 97 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Combined | Pos | G | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | RS | RS/162 | |||||
| 1B | 54 | 46 | 424 | 413 | 32 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 3B | 32 | 26 | 254 | 18 | 53 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | ||||||
| LF | 48 | 39 | 337 | 70 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||||||
| RF | 56 | 50 | 425 | 97 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -2 |
We don't have a ton of sample size for those defensive projections, so take them with a grain of salt. It's probably reasonable to say that Hinske can play four positions competently though, 1B/3B and the OF corners.
If we project Hinske going forward, moving him to the Yankees and using his YTD performance to revise his projection, here's what that looks like:
| Revised projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2009 chone projection | 272 | 236 | 38 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 60 | 3 | .246 | .345 | .405 | 34 | 82 | 8 | .323 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 272 | 237 | 36 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 59 | 4 | .247 | .344 | .416 | 35 | 83 | 9 | .324 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 272 | 236 | 36 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 63 | 3 | .248 | .344 | .416 | 35 | 84 | 9 | .324 |
| 2009 tht projection | 272 | 236 | 36 | 59 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 33 | 58 | 3 | .252 | .352 | .425 | 36 | 87 | 10 | .332 |
| 2009 zips projection | 272 | 236 | 36 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 60 | 4 | .240 | .341 | .412 | 34 | 82 | 8 | .322 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 272 | 236 | 36 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 60 | 4 | .244 | .344 | .419 | 35 | 84 | 9 | .326 |
| 2009 average projection | 272 | 236 | 36 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 60 | 4 | .246 | .345 | .415 | 35 | 84 | 9 | .325 |
League average wOBA is around 0.332, so Hinske projects as essentially average offensively going forward (over 300 PA the difference between a .332 wOBA and a .325 wOBA is less than 2 runs), and with the ability to spot the four corners. Here are Casey Erickson's and Eric Fryer's minor league stats. I don't think either is a huge prospect by any means..
Hinske can replace Xavier Nady, who looks to be done for the year, and can spell Alex Rodriguez once a week or so while likely hitting/fielding better than Cody Ransom. The difference between Hinske and Ransom going forward over 200 PAs is around 9 runs offensively, so this could be a nice cheap pickup of a win. Hinske also gives the Yankees a little more OF depth and roster flexibility, since I'd assume this means Ransom becomes the primary backup MI, and Ramiro Pena goes to AAA to get full-time PT, although they could just cut Ransom and keep Pena. So they get a a little more OF depth without wasting another roster spot as well.
Tough to see any downside with this acquisition. Thumbs up from me.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Yankee Zone Rating and Pitching Bar Graphs through Games of June 28, 2009 (UZR added upon request)
CH: Playable Chances as defined by Stats Inc’s Zone Rating
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Yankees.com: Rivera notches 500th save
NEW YORK -- Mariano Rivera became just the second member of baseball's prestigious 500-save club on Sunday, getting four outs to preserve a 4-2 Yankees victory in a sweep of the Mets at Citi Field.Mo didn't just pick up save #500, he's now OBP-ing .500 as well.
Rivera was summoned in the eighth inning after Chien-Ming Wang went 5 1/3 innings and the bullpen brought the Yankees close to a series sweep of their cross-town rivals.
He answered the call, striking out Omir Santos looking to strand two Mets aboard in the eighth -- and working a bases-loaded, full-count walk in the ninth against fellow closer Francisco Rodriguez -- before setting down the side in the ninth, locking down his 18th save in 19 opportunities this season to reach the round "500" number.
Reader Ryan asked if Mo recorded his first RBI at the oldest age ever.
| Player | Year | Age |
| Satchel Paige | 1952 | 46 |
| Fred Johnson | 1938 | 44 |
| Diomedes Olivo | 1962 | 43 |
| Orlando Hernandez | 2006 | 41 |
| Chuck Hostetler | 1944 | 41 |
| David Wells | 2004 | 41 |
| Joe Berry | 1944 | 40 |
| Roger Clemens | 2002 | 40 |
| Chuck Finley | 2002 | 40 |
| Ed Green | 1890 | 40 |
| Frank Tanana | 1993 | 40 |
| Mariano Rivera | 2009 | 39 |
| Lou Koupal | 1937 | 39 |
| Connie Marrero | 1950 | 39 |
| Alex McColl | 1933 | 39 |
| Bill McGhee | 1944 | 39 |
| Bill Morrell | 1931 | 38 |
| Chi-Chi Olivo | 1966 | 38 |
| Steve Reed | 2003 | 38 |
| Lee Riley | 1944 | 38 |
| Bob Thurman | 1955 | 38 |
| Paul Abbott | 2004 | 37 |
| Buzz Clarkson | 1952 | 37 |
| Minnie Mendoza | 1970 | 37 |
We are lucky to have Mo playing for our favorite team.
Chien-Ming Wang wasn't great, but he was decent and he appears to be getting stronger with each outing. He's finally picked up his elusive first win of the year, working up to 85 pitches and recording 11 of his BIP outs via grounder. His season line is going to suck regardless of how he does from here on out, but I think he's shown enough to remain in the rotation for now. Over his last seven outings including tonight (two relief appearances and five starts), he's got an ERA of 5.21 but a FIP of 4.07. Here are his batted ball splits as well:
| Dates | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| Apr 8 - May 22 | 30% | 46% | 24% |
| May 27 - Jun 28 | 56% | 32% | 12% |
While I wouldn't say he's back just yet, I'd say he's heading in the right direction.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Yankees (42-32) @ Mets (37-36), Sunday, June 28, 2009, 8:05pm **Game Chatter**
NYY: Chien-Ming Wang (29, RHP, 0-6, 11.20) vs. NYM: Livan Hernandez (34, RHP, 5-2, 4.05)
Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.308/.377/.451)
N. Swisher, RF (.239/.373/.504)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.277/.387/.576)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.227/.387/.481)
R. Cano, 2B (.301/.334/.488)
J. Posada, C (.271/.361/.516)
M. Cabrera, LF (.291/.354/.447)
B. Gardner, CF (.293/.364/.427)
C. Wang, P (.000/.000/.000)
New York Mets
D. Murphy, 1B (.248/.316/.366)
A. Cora, SS (.257/.354/.324)
D. Wright, 3B (.346/.434/.493)
G. Sheffield, LF (.273/.387/.497)
F. Tatis, RF (.257/.325/.364)
F. Martinez, CF (.164/.247/.233)
B. Schneider, C (.237/.319/.424)
L. Castillo, 2B (.278/.373/.330)
L. Hernandez, P (.120/.120/.120)
Whatever.
Offense Pie Charts Through Games of June 27, 2009
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted)
Outs: Duh.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Yankees.com: Burnett’s gem all Yanks need in Queens
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and allowed just one hit in seven dominant frames, striking out a season-high 10 batters as the Yankees defeated the Mets, 5-0, on Saturday at Citi Field.
Jorge Posada hit a three-run homer to supplement Nick Swisher’s earlier solo shot, toppling starter Tim Redding as the Yankees defeated their crosstown rivals for the fourth time in five contests this season.
Beating the Mets is always enjoyable. Burnett lowered his ERA on the season to 3.93 in this game, That happens to be the exact ERA of his average projection entering 2009. His peripherals are still not quite as good as his ERA, but he’s been pretty good in June, throwing, 30 innings of 2.10 ERA, with 35 Ks, 16 BB, and 3 HRs. allowed.
Now we cross our fingers and hope the Wang comes up big tomorrow.
Yankees (41-32) @ Mets (37-35), Saturday, June 27, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**
NYY: A.J. Burnett (32, RHP, 5-4, 4.24) vs. NYM: Tim Redding (31, RHP, 1-2, 6.08)
Lineups
New York Yankees
B. Gardner, CF (.303/.374/.441)
N. Swisher, RF (.238/.369/.493)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.276/.384/.575)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.227/.389/.487)
R. Cano, 2B (.302/.335/.488)
J. Posada, C (.272/.364/.503)
M. Cabrera, LF (.287/.351/.446)
R. Pena, SS (.268/.310/.341)
A. Burnett, P (.500?.500/.500)
New York Mets
A. Cora, SS (.258/.357/.326)
A. Reyes, 2B (.500/.500/.500)
D. Wright, 3B (.351/.439/.500)
R. Church, RF (.273/.333/.380)
G. Sheffield, LF (.277/.388/.503)
D. Murphy, 1B (.251/.320/.372)
J. Reed, CF (.293/.321/.360)
B. Schneider, C (.246/.318/.439)
T. Redding, P (.111/.111/.111)
Whatever.
Brett Gardner: Better Than League Average?
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | BR | BR/650 | BRAR | BRAR/650 |
| Brett Gardner | NYA | AL | CF | 176 | 152 | 28 | 46 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 16 | .303 | .374 | .441 | 26 | 97 | 9 | 34 |
| Average | AL | CF | 176 | 156 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 7 | .261 | .329 | .407 | 21 | 79 | 4 | 16 | |
| Replacement | AL | CF | 176 | 161 | 20 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 6 | .228 | .293 | .356 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 0 |
BR: Batting runs as calculated by linear weights
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: Postion-adjusted batting runs above replacement
BRAR/650: BRAR pro-rated to 650 PA
In the interest of full disclosure, Gardner's performance over 170 PAs is still within range of his less than impressive projections entering 2009.
| Player | -2 SD | -1 SD | wOBA | +1 SD | +2 SD |
| Brett Gardner | .208 | .274 | .340 | .405 | .471 |
| Average | .176 | .243 | .310 | .377 | .444 |
| Replacement | .142 | .210 | .278 | .347 | .415 |
wOBA does not factor in baserunning. Gardner's 16 steals and 2 times caught are equal to around three runs.
Most encouraging to me is that Gardner's strikeout rate is much lower than projected. Gardner was projected to strike out in about 20% of his PAs based on his MLEs. He's striking out 12% of the time. He was projected to walk in about 10.5% of his PAs, and he's walking in 9.7% of them, so his BB rate hasn't suffered all that much from any change in approach he may have made to cut down on his Ks.
Like most statheads, I harp on sample size. 170 PAs are not enough to definitively say Gardner's going to be a starting caliber MLB CF. Still, part of the concerns about Gardner's game translating to the majors were based on his supposed physical limitations, particularly in the area of power, and his high strikeout rate. So far this season, we are seeing at least some evidence that those concerns may have been overblown and Gardner's game may be able to play at the major league level, so let's enjoy it while it lasts.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Yankees.com: CC’s Yanks take what Mets give them
NEW YORK—The Yankees held their breath regarding the state of CC Sabathia’s tight left biceps, with manager Joe Girardi hoping no bad news would trickle back from the bullpen during pregame warmups.
He needn’t have worried. Sabathia came out just fine, retiring the first 12 batters he faced and even contributing a run-scoring single as the Yankees defeated the Mets, 9-1, on Friday in the first Subway Series game played at Citi Field.
Alex Rodriguez homered for the second successive game, belting a two-run shot off Elmer Dessens in the eighth inning—the 564th of his Major League career, moving him past Reggie Jackson for sole possession of 11th place on baseball’s all-time list.
Now what will Buster Olney write about?
Burnett should be able to out-pitch Tim Redding tomorrow. Hopefully the Yankees can knock him out of the game early so we won’t have to look at that furry animal attached to his chin.
