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Monday, December 29, 2003

Slam Dunc

Before the 2003 major league draft, some publications had Eric Duncan going as high as the 14th pick, then on draft day, he fell into the Yankees’ lap, and they made sure to draft the bat they coveted. Duncan is currently 6’2’’ and 195 pounds so I am not sure he has too much wiggle room to work with when it comes to adding muscle mass. He has “passable third-actions and an average arm, but is destined to end up at first base” according to Baseball America. Despite that, I will evaluate him as a 3B because some observers feel he can stay there, and his bat works a lot better there in my opinion.

.278/.348/.400(AVG/OBP/SLG) .257 GPA
.373/.413/.695(AVG/OBP/SLG) .342 GPA

The first line is Duncan’s performance in the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League, where he was first assigned this summer. That line was compiled over the course of 201 plate appearances in a league where high school draft picks are commonly placed. The second line is Duncan’s performance in the New York Penn League, where the Yankees promoted him after he went on a hot streak near the end of his GCL stint. That line was compiled over the course of 63 plate appearances, so it is a much smaller sample size. With that said, what did Duncan demonstrate as he hit .301/.364/.473 (AVG/OBP/SLG) with a .282 GPA overall this summer?

He showed that he can hit for average. He showed that he had at least decent plate patience, though it went away a little once he faced tougher competition, he showed that he can hit for power by sending 35% of his hits for extra bases. He also made good contact, only striking out in 18% of his at bats. In a very positive development, his K rate saw no increase with the change in levels. Basically, Duncan lived up to his expectations as a hitter, showing why scouts have compared him to Chipper Jones at the plate.

With most offensive queries answered positively at this point, Duncan just needs to work on his defense and make sure he can stick at third. If he can stick there, and hit anywhere close to the way Chipper did during his prime, then he could solve the Yankees’ 3B woes for a long time. This potential makes Duncan an extremely exciting prospect that Yankee fans should definitely keep an eye on. At this point he looks like he can be a .300/.380/.500 (AVG/OBP/SLG) .296 GPA 3B, admittedly it is VERY early in the “game” and short season numbers are difficult to project.

*Sorry for the shorter than average post today, got college stuff to attend to. Once again, any questions, comments, suggestions, e-mail mcnallyf@taftschool.org