---

Sunday, December 28, 2003

Keep An Eye On

I highly doubt that Joaquin Arias will get much ink in prospect publications over the next few months, possibly a little blurb in Baseball America’s Top 10 Yankee Prospect Rankings. However, I think he is a better prospect than the initial glance at his statistics may give you. If you do that, what you see for the 2003 season is an OK batting average, poor on base percentage, and poor slugging percentage. Thankfully, there is more to prospecting than this and that is what makes it so exciting.

In a somewhat similar vein to the Rudy Guillen-Vladimir Guerrero comments from last offseason, Joaquin Arias received comparisons to Alfonso Soriano based on his speed, quick wrists, and similar 6’1’‘, 160 pound wiry build. So, physically Arias has some potential. He also plays shortstop and by accounts that I have seen, has the defensive tools to remain there.

Despite the physical aspects of being a prospect, one must also produce to some extent. This is my personal view on prospects as it allows one to make safer projections knowing there is evidence supporting their potential to perform at the major league level. With that being said, Joaquin’s 2003 line of .266/.306/.343(AVG/OBP/SLG) .223 GPA is very disappointing. However, as with many statistics, especially those involving prospects (who I tend to believe just have everything click at certain points), the line must be looked at contextually:

.234/.271/.312 (AVG/OBP/SLG) .200 GPA
.323/.359/.401 (AVG/OBP/SLG) .262 GPA

The first line is Joaquin Arias’ production through the first 65% of his season with the Yankees Low-A organization. Needless to say, he was not living up to expectations, then, something happened. While some may say it is sample size fluctuation I feel that there is more to it than this because the performance saw Arias’ already excellent K rate fall from 11% to an incredible 5%. During this change, Joaquin’s walk rate went from a walk once every 17 at bats, to a walk once every 15 at bats. A small change yes, but a small positive one nonetheless. The coupling of an increased walk rate and decreased K rate lead me to believe that Arias definitely brought his game to another level over the course of the last month and a half of the minor league season.

After analyzing the numbers and the physical tools, there is another aspect to look at for Joaquin. He played the entire 2003 season in a full season A-league as an 18 year old. That fact, coupled with decent overall numbers that showed dramatic improvement as the season went on, and good physical tools tell me that while Arias will probably be overlooked this season and next (I wouldn’t normally say this, but for the problem that Arias will have a hard time raising eyebrows in the hitter killing Florida State League), he could/should be one of the game’s big time prospects come 2005.