Monday, September 3, 2007
Ian Kennedy’s Debut
The Good: Kennedy’s velocity was a bit better than the “high 80s” thrown around by some in the prospect analysis community. In actuality, the range on his fastball was 87-92, which is more in line with the reports from Pinstripes Plus than anywhere else, so kudos to Patrick, Frankie, and the rest of the guys over there. The average velocity of the 54 fastballs thrown was 90.5. In addition to showcasing solid-good velocity, Kennedy had great fastball command. The home plate ump was a bit inconsistent, on both sides, but Kennedy did a great job of hitting the corners with his fastball.
Ian also showed flashes with his Vulcan change. The movement to the pitch was a bit funky because he places the ball between his middle and ring finger, forming the V for Vulcan. This was the pitch that he was able to fool left-handers with. Overall, he did a good job with this pitch.
The Bad: Kennedy also flashed his slider, curveball, and sinker on Saturday. On this day, I would say the slider probably showed the most promise. Despite that, I don’t think any of these pitches looked especially great (Don, don’t kill me). While the pitches themselves showed promise, Kennedy left more than his fair share of them up in the zone, so his command wasn’t great with respect to this portion of his arsenal. Fortunately, the Devil Rays were not able to take advantage of this and he escaped largely unscathed.
The Verdict: I was very pleased with Kennedy’s debut and feel he showed enough to warrant another start. With Hughes’ current struggles, I wouldn’t mind if the Yankees kept the 5-man rotation in tact just to have a better idea of who has the hot hand heading into October between the two rookies. I think Hughes has more long-term potential, but if at the end of the month the Yankees are in the playoffs and Kennedy has performed superior, he should get the post-season nod.
***
-The minor league season is, essentially, over. Austin Jackson was promoted to AAA as a reward for his great year and Marcos Vechionacci to AA as a reward for his hot finish. Both players will, almost assuredly, start next year for Trenton. AA will have its best collection of position player talent in quite some time between those two and Jose Tabata.
-The GCL Yankees won their league championship for what seems like the 12th time in the last 4 years. Jesus Montero, who very quietly had a good season, killed the ball in a small playoff sample. He hit .280/.366/.421 in 107 regular season ABs and then went 6 for 16 with a double, 2 homers, 2 walks and 4 Ks. Just a very solid year for a guy some wanted to write off so soon after being regarded as the best prospect on the international market.
-On a final, “funny” note, here at RLYW and within the Yankee blogosphere we’re all worried about Phil Hughes’ velocity. Hughes has been pitching at 90-93, touching 94. Within these same communities, we’re also all pleased with Kennedy’s velocity during his first game where he was 89-92. Over in Red Sox land, everyone is in love with Clay Bucholz. Bucholz is sitting 90-93. I’m not going to ignore that more troubling than Hughes’ velocity range has been his tendency to tire quickly, but for those who are dismayed regarding Hughes’ overall velocity…please calm down. Now, if only he could regain some feel for the change, we wouldn’t even have to have this discussion.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Joba To The Pen
-So, I’m sure most of you have heard by now, but Joba Chamberlain has been moved to the Scranton bullpen. The Yankees have said that the move is to see if he can help them out of the big league pen this year, but that his long term future is as a starter. I have mixed feelings about this move. On the one hand, it would be awesome if Joba could help the team this year because Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor aren’t QUITE getting the job done. On the other hand, working out of the bullpen is something Joba is not used to and he’s about to be asked to do this in the big leagues, in a playoff race, in New York, 1 year out of college. How Torre will use Joba also needs to be considered. I’m not the biggest fan of Joe Torre’s bullpen management because he tends to overuse guys when they’re going well and under use them if he doesn’t trust them. Ideally, I think the Yankee brass would have liked to have Edwar Ramirez in this spot, but since Torre was determined not to use him, they’re going to Joba. I hope this works out and that this doesn’t impact his long term ability to be a starter. He needs more time to refine his game, but has overpowering raw stuff, so maybe this will all work out. I would love to see SG run some sort of MLE projection of what Joba can contribute…taking into account guys getting better when they go to the pen and such things. Thanks, SG.
-Ian Kennedy was very good in his first AAA start. Ian has done a terrific job in the minors this season, but guys with average fastballs don’t get shots to help out the bullpen. One thing that I do like though is that Kennedy is being given the opportunity to get his innings totals so that, hopefully, it won’t be too difficult for him to transition to a 6-month season next year. This is something that Joba or Hughes may struggle with next year due to their relatively light workloads.
-Speaking of Phil…Phil didn’t seem to have his best command today, missing off the edges a bit, but still got the job done. He kept the ball down in the zone, even when missing, and was able to turn in a Wang-ian performance. Hughes’ next start will be in the big leagues and not a moment too soon. The Kei Igawa Experience has been…underwhelming.
-Looks like I jumped the gun on Austin Jackson cooling down. He’s swinging at everything and hitting it hard, impressive stuff.
-Jesus Montero has had a nice start to his pro career, .282/.364/.487 in 39 ABs with a 5:8 BB:K ratio.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Rushing?
-Phil Hughes was terrific tonight. His fastball was in the low 90s all night and he was locating it to the corners. He was getting both of his curveballs over for strikes and swings and misses and he even did a solid job of flashing the change. He might need one more outing to get his pitch count up, but stuff wise he’s good to go. The sooner the better, I tire of Kei Igawa.
-I don’t think Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain are being rushed. They’ve both done enough this season to convince me that they’re better than AA. At the same time, I do think they’re being rushed. Neither has demonstrated that they’re at a level where there is nothing more that they can learn from the AA experience. I would think the Yankees realize this, but feel that the promotion is a necessary step in figuring out how close these two are to contributing to next year’s rotation. For Joba, it is also probably a test to see how much he might help this year’s bullpen. Considering this, I support the promotions.
-To clarify, when I made my comment about Clippard losing his shot to be a part of the Yankee rotation I didn’t mean that he would never recover. Clippard has less stuff than Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy (probably). However, prior to this year he was more ready as far as inning totals and minor league level. Now, all 3 of those guys are ahead of him in terms of readiness, which means they are more than likely going to get full shots at a rotation spot before he does. Even assuming injuries, just having guys ahead of him lessens his shot.
-Despite rocky outings his last two times out, I’m curious as to how well Alan Horne has to pitch before he gets Ross Ohlendorf’s AAA rotation spot.
-After a terrible mid-season slump, Francisco Cervelli seems to be getting back on track. He’s 10 for his last 30 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homer, 2 walks, and 5 Ks.
-After a tremendous start, Austin Jackson has cooled down. He’s only hitting .256 with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last 10 games. Hopefully, he can start drawing walks again so he’s not using up as many outs.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Ryan Bradley Memorial
http://blog.nj.com/ledgeryankees/2007/07/chamberlain_kennedy_promoted.html
Kenney and Chamberlain were promoted to AAA with Wright and Clippard moved down to AA. This move speaks volumes about how highly the Yankees think of these two. The Wright demotion makes perfect sense, in my opinion, but I would have liked to see Clippard get some more time to overcome whatever problems he’s facing. It looks like any shot he ever had at consistent rotation time is now gone.
More later.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Ian Kennedy Fails His 1st Test
Injuries/News:
Jose Tabata has missed the last two games for Tampa with some minor nicks/bruises/soreness/whatever you want to call it. He’s fine…On another note; I would love to know where Tim Norton and George Kontos have been…Tyler Clippard was solid tonight. He did a much better job commanding his fastball, but is still not where he needs to be. He doesn’t seem to be ready yet, but hopefully he can continue to defy his peripherals. I’m surprised/disappointed Joe took him out as early as he did, but I guess he figured he was guaranteed to get 7+ innings out of Wang in the next game.
AAA:
Chase Wright took the mound for Scranton and was effective. Wright’s final line of 5.2-5-3-3-2-6-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR) was better than any of his recent outings and solid pitching overall. Wright now has 1 more K than BB at the AAA level. Today was a big day for him. Coming in to relieve Wright was Edwar Ramirez. Ramirez was scored upon for the 2nd game in a row, which is weird. His line was 2.1-2-1-1-1-2-0. One of the hits he gave up was a double to Andy Marte, which could be a good or bad thing depending on whether you still think Marte is a rising star or if his time has come and gone. Anyway, Ramirez is now at 13-8-2-2-4-19-0 at the AAA level. Britton is up, so Ramirez is next guy to campaign for.
Alberto Gonzalez led off and was 1 for 6, while Eric Duncan was 2 for 5 with a walk and a strikeout. Duncan is hitting .300+ over his last 13 or so games. Needs more power and more average. The discipline and patience are excellent.
AA:
Cody Ehlers had a tough day at the plate, 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts.
Ian Kennedy made his AA debut and there was some good and some bad in his 5-6-4-4-0-6-1 line. The home run was on a pitch that he didn’t get far enough in, which was bad. He was able to strike guys out painting corners and changing speeds, which was good. Kennedy’s performed very well this season, but I’m not THAT excited about him yet. I don’t think Clippard is a world beating prospect and I’m not sure I’d put Kennedy ahead of Clippard. I’m willing to be convinced otherwise, and once I can see him in person, I’ll be able to make a better judgment.
A+:
Colin Curtis and Juan Miranda continued to hit well, Reegie Corona continued to struggle, and Marcos Vechionacci continued being inconsistent. Vechionacci was 0 for 2 with a strikeout and a sac fly, following back to back 2 hit games. Reegie was 0 for 3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Despite a recent 5 for 14 stretch, Corona is only hitting .178 in his last 10 games. Curtis was 2 for 3 with a walk and a steal and Miranda was 2 for 4 with a double and 2 strikeouts. Miranda is up to .270/.342/.475 and starting to look like he might not be a waste of money.
A-:
The Riverdogs put 12 runs and 18 hits on the board as just about everyone had a great night. 38 Games Hilligoss was 1 for 6 with 2 strikeouts, as he continues to cool down. Action Jackson was 2 for 6 with a double. Seth Fortenberry was 3 for 6 with a homer. Fortenberry needs to go to Tampa, I think. He’s already 23 and in addition to hitting .277/.372/.477 on the year, he is hitting about .290/.380/.510 since May 1st. Wilmer Pino was 3 for 5 and Jose Gil was 1 for 4 with a homer and a walk. Gil and Pino are both guys I’d like to see heat up considering my preseason faith in them.
Spotlight On:
Jeff Marquez getting the early morning start for Trenton. Marquez needs to start picking up the K rate.
Friday, June 1, 2007
I Am A Witness
Injuries/News:
Mmmmm…Lebron James.
AAA:
Chase Wright made the start for Scranton and was…not very good. Wright’s K:BB ratio had been unimpressive in his AAA stint and now, so are the rest of his numbers. Wright could only muster a 3.2-6-7-7-4-3-3 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR) line. His AAA totals now stand at 36.2-34-20-19-18-15-5. Not very good. Despite the tremendous start at AA, Wright’s AAA performance would seem to indicate he is ill-prepared for the level. Edwar Ramirez came out of the bullpen and shut down the opposition, 3.1-2-0-0-0-5-0. Ramirez now has a AAA line of 9.2-5-0-0-2-15-0. Ramirez prospers because of a tremendous change, so he might be one of those one-trick ponies that get exposed at the MLB level. Then again, he might not be. Luis Vizcaino is uninspiring so it would be nice to see him or Britton get a shot.
Eric Duncan had a quiet night, 1 for 5 with a strikeout, and Alberto Gonzalez was 1 for 4 with a double and a strikeout.
AA:
Jeff Marquez started the game for Trenton and picked up the victory, but I’m going to say he needs to improve. The line on Jeff was 6-5-3-3-3-1-1. As you can see he only managed 1 strikeout on the night and his disappointing season total in that category is now 35 in 65.1 innings. These aren’t the types of numbers I envisioned from Jeff in ranking him higher than everyone else, but he’s been able to get the job done thanks to strong groundball tendencies. However, if his performance is going to be transferable to the major league level, he’s going to have to put up some more Ks.
A+:
Ian Kennedy continued to toil pointlessly in the Florida State League; tonight’s dominant outing entailed 7-2-0-0-1-8-0 line. Kennedy’s line in the month of May is 38.2-21-3-3-11-44-0. There’s no reason for him to be in Tampa anymore. None. Promote him, please. Promote Joba too.
Colin Curtis was 2 for 5 with a double to up his AVG to .281. In his last 10 games, Curtis is hitting .386, despite just a 2:10 BB:K ratio. Jose “Ichiro” Tabata, who in Player Journal on milb.com says he feels he’s ready for AA, still is not showing any power. The RF was 3 for 4 with a walk and a steal. With his OBP above his SLG, it’s clear that Tabata is going to make a great leadoff hitter someday. Marcos Vechionacci and Francisco Cervelli were each 0 for 3 with a walk as their discipline continued to help them contribute despite slumping.
A-:
Mitch Hilligoss now has one of the longest hit streaks in the last 50 years of minor league play or something. The Streak was extended to 37 games when the 3B went 4 for 5 today. Of the 4 hits, 1 was a homer and another was a double as Hilligoss is beginning to flash some power. If he continues to do that, I would think the Yankees will contemplate promoting him once his streak ends. The soon to be 22-year-old’s line stands at .335/.377/.437. Seth Fortenberry cooled down a bit, going 1 for 5 with 2 strikeouts. Austin Jackson was 2 for 4 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout.
Spotlight On:
Brett Smith going for Trenton.
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Hughes’ AAA Debut
4.6.07 Review:
Phil Hughes made his AAA debut last night and did so in impressive fashion. He worked in the low 90s with his fastball and spotted it to the corners and was able to go to his curveball for swings and misses as well. While Nardi Contreras was recently quoted as saying he’s impressed with how much Hughes’ changeup has advanced this past spring, I wasn’t able to confirm or deny that because Hughes didn’t go to the pitch that much. He might have just been trying to keep it simple for his AAA debut. Another thing I picked up on Hughes was that he seemed focus to get the out at 2nd whenever the ball was tapped back to him and there was a runner on first. For the most part, this strategy worked out last night, but I’m not sure how great of a tendency this is. After all, the last thing we need is to endanger The Hitting Machine™.
Also impressing in the Scranton game was Eric Duncan. Duncan was only 1 for 4 in the box score, but the 1 was an impressive home run to right-center field. In addition, in the at bat prior to the homer, Duncan hit a long fly ball to left-center field. Every at bat was a quality one and Duncan is looking good thus far in 2007. I was once again pleased with his defensive play.
Alberto Gonzalez had another nondescript afternoon with the most noteworthy moment being the 4 pitch walk he drew in his first plate appearance. The odds of this happening again are probably not great. His two hits were also of the right place at the right time variety as he hit one off of the 2B, which was a play that could have been made, and the other was a tapper.
Around The Minors:
Elsewhere in the minors, Jeff Marquez started his season off with 5 no-hit innings before finally giving in in the 6th. I was very encouraged by the start for Marquez as I have him rated higher than everyone else and as long as he keeps his walks in check, I feel confident he’ll make me look good.
Ian Kennedy made short work of the competition in Tampa, striking out 8 in 5 innings and really, he should not be long for Tampa. I expect him to consistently put up big strikeout totals in the FSL until the Yankees promote him. Most noteworthy, for me at least, will be his GB:FB ratio. He’s supposedly been working on a 2-seamer.
Jose Tabata continues to dominate in the early going as he was 3 for 4 with a triple and a strikeout. It’s early, but Tabata looks like he wants to make good on his goal of reaching Trenton and proving, by the end of the year, that he can hit big league pitching.
Austin Jackson showed off his newfound power in Charleston last night going 2 for 4 with a double and a home run. The double was to center and the home run was to left-center.
Spotlight On:
You could go with Scranton, where Ross Ohlendorf is making his system debut. At the same time, you could go with Tampa where Joba should be making his full-season debut. The choice is yours. I’m more interested in Joba, I think.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
What To Watch in 2007 (Minor Leagues)
Minor league opening day, the real opening day, is finally upon us. After much pomp and circumstance about the improvement in the quality of the Yankee farm system, it’s finally time to see who is going to back up their winter press clippings with impressive performances. With that in mind, here are a few players to watch/listen to internet audio/keep track of in box scores:
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Scranton
Clippard has succeeded at every level thus far in his minor league career, but because he does not throw particularly hard, he still has his share of doubters. He will be taking the mound for Scranton today as he attempts to pass his final minor league test. I am a big fan of Clippard and expect him to do what he has done at every other level: ERA in the low to mid 3s, eat innings, and strike out lots of guys.
Eric Duncan, 1B, Scranton
The Yankees have decided to start Duncan off at Scranton. No doubt, they feel that the hitting he did for the first 180 or so plate appearances in AA last year represent the real Duncan. If he can stay away from any recurring back problems, I expect Duncan to surprise a lot of people and put himself in line for a shot at the 1B job come next spring. Strikeouts have not been a problem for him for some time now and it is just a matter of knowing that his back is healthy so that he can drive the ball when he does connect.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, Scranton
With the A-Rod saga developing to the point where it is not set in stone that he will be a member of the 2008 Yankees, Gonzalez goes from future super utility player to potential infield regular. There is a weak 3B market coming up and if A-Rod bolts, the Yankees might look within. If they do, the quality of the season Gonzalez has will play a large role in deciding how confidently the Yankees go in that direction.
Brett Gardner, CF, Trenton
Gardner can run really, really, really fast. He also knows how to take a walk. Those two skills will not mean much if he fails to hit with enough power to stop pitchers from attempting to knock the bat out of his hands. He already strikes out a lot for someone of the speedy leadoff man ilk, so it will be interesting to watch whether the strikeouts increase as he tries to hit for at least gap power. I doubt he is going to show much power and will probably have to settle for being rated as a future 4th OF/defensive replacement, but I hope he does better.
Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, Tampa
Marcos has impressed everyone with his defensive performance for some time now, but it is time for the bat to start catching up. He is another guy whose season becomes just a little bit more crucial with A-Rod’s status as a Yankee up in the air. I’ve always been a big Vechionacci supporter and given that he looked stronger in spring training I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect a year that has him ending in Trenton.
Ian Kennedy, RHP, Tampa
Kennedy is basically Clippard with a smaller build. Much like Clippard, he’s going to have to prove himself every step of the way. Tampa is step 1.
Jose Gil, C, Charleston
I love Gil’s swing. I love his sense of the strike-zone. I think he’s got defensive potential. This year he’s going to cease switch-hitting and just stick to being a righty batter, hopefully he begins to live up to my expectations.
The overall team to track this year is Tampa as it will have the most prospects. Scranton should also be good for keeping track of the potential rotation injury replacements. Finally, for those that were not aware, Dellin Betances and Zach McAllister did not make the opening day Charleston roster. I’m not sure why, but I would speculate that it was due to refinements being made to their motion (Betances) or pitches (McAllister).
And finally, if you’re into prospects, I highly recommend going to minorleaguebaseball.com and subscribing to MiLB.tv and enjoy watching the outstanding Scranton rotation so that when one of them makes it to the bigs, you can tell your friends all about what to expect.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
#8: Ian Kennedy
Ian Kennedy, RHP, 22
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 6th, Baseball America 5th, John Sickels 10th (B-)
Physical Ability: Kennedy is another in the lineage of dominating USC pitchers. Unlike his predecessors Mark Prior, Randy Johnson, Tom Seaver, or even Barry Zito, he did not have something that made scouts say “wow”. A slightly built right-hander standing 6’0’’ tall and weighing in at 195, Kennedy does not throw as hard as the first 3 guys. Instead, his fastball is typically around 90. He does not have the awe inspiring breaking stuff that the two lefties on that list possess. Rather he throws a curveball that has been solid throughout his career, but can yell “hit me!” when he’s off. Despite those shortcomings, Kennedy still had a terrific first two years at USC and heading into his junior year was poised to etch his name alongside Prior’s in the history books. His success could be traced to terrific control and command and a plus changeup.
What Happened in ’06: Of course, Kennedy fell to the Yankees in the draft because he didn’t have the junior year he was expected to have. Instead of being terrific, he was merely solid. His fastball velocity dipped from solid to below average, he struggled with his curveball, and his changeup took a slight step back. In other words, everything went wrong. Despite this, Kennedy still had a solid season and the Yankees tabbed him with first pick, presumably because they had inside information on “fixing” him thanks to Mark Newman and the infamous USC network. Kennedy signed late and made a couple starts for Staten Island during the end of the regular season and playoffs. His performance there was similar to the performance he would go on to have in the Hawaiian Baseball League. He walked more than you would expect given his pedigree, allowed his share of runs, and struck out a ton of guys. This seems to have been an issue of rust more than anything else as he would struggle with his control early in games. This would leave him in a position where he HAD to get certain pitches over and batters would tee off.
What Lies Ahead: Kennedy will begin the 2007 season pitching for the Tampa Yankees. As he is now, I expect him to dominate in the Florida State League, he is the definition of a polished college pitcher and that is what they do there. Beyond that, how much success he has will be determined by how quickly he is able to improve his curveball. A changeup and command only gets you so far.
Grade: In ranking Kennedy as high as I am, I’m putting a lot of faith in Nardi Contreras’ ability to unlock what Kennedy had going prior to his junior year. Right now, he just isn’t that impressive of a pitching prospect. However, having been a known commodity and with his history of success, I feel Kennedy HAS to be given the benefit of the doubt. If he develops as expected, Kennedy can slide nicely into the middle of a rotation. Despite a similar build and somewhat similar pitching motion, he’s not Mike Mussina and never will be. At worst he’s a safe bet to contribute to the back of a rotation. B-
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Baseball America: Top 10 Yankees Prospects
1. Phil Hughes, RHP2. Jose Tabata, OF
3. Dellin Betances, RHP
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP
5. Ian Kennedy, RHP
6. Chris Garcia, RHP
7. Tyler Clippard, RHP
8. J. Brent Cox, RHP
9. Mark Melancon, RHP
10. Brett Gardner,
Not a big fan of Brett Gardner, but otherwise the list seems to be as expected.
Page 1 of 1 pages:
