Wednesday, August 15, 2007
Joba vs. Hughes
Fortunately, we have both.
Saturday, August 4, 2007
The Return of Hughes
So, as you may have heard, Phil Hughes made his return this afternoon. Hughes’ final line looks pretty poor, 4.1-7-6-6-2-5, but there was some good and bad mixed in there. The good is that Phil was pretty good through this first 4 innings. He needs to become more economical, but he was getting the job done. The bad is that, for whatever reason, he isn’t maintaining his velocity. He was throwing in the low 90s for the first couple innings, but then dropped to 88-91. I’m not sure what to make of this at the present time. I was able to watch Hughes in person last year, as well as get reports from others who attended his games, and he was always able to maintain his velocity. I’m hoping this is a matter of him just needing to get some innings under his belt. The one piece of evidence for this viewpoint would be that the 90-93, touching 94 that he was throwing in his first couple innings was better velocity than he had shown at any point in his first two ML starts.
Anyway, the velocity loss wasn’t much of a problem for Hughes until he began missing his spots with his fastball. The biggest example of this would be the home run. Phil missing spots with his fastball also wouldn’t have been as much of a problem if he was commanding his curveball, which he wasn’t. The change-up also wasn’t there today. So, Hughes wasn’t good today, but the command problems are solvable and hopefully the velocity is as well.
***
Meanwhile, in the minors…Austin Jackson is for real. He’s cut down on his K rate a ton and is drilling the ball. By the end of the season you could say he’s a better prospect than Tabata and get taken seriously. Hell, if you’re the aggressive type, you might even be able to pull it off now.
In addition, the Joba Chamberlain Relief Project is going swimmingly. Joba made his third relief appearance, this one a 2-inning outing. In his 2 innings Joba gave up 1 hit and struck out 5. He has 18 Ks in 8 AAA innings. I fully expect him to be with the team by the end of the week. I might not love the idea of him being in the pen, but at least it gives me another reason to watch.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Joba To The Pen
-So, I’m sure most of you have heard by now, but Joba Chamberlain has been moved to the Scranton bullpen. The Yankees have said that the move is to see if he can help them out of the big league pen this year, but that his long term future is as a starter. I have mixed feelings about this move. On the one hand, it would be awesome if Joba could help the team this year because Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor aren’t QUITE getting the job done. On the other hand, working out of the bullpen is something Joba is not used to and he’s about to be asked to do this in the big leagues, in a playoff race, in New York, 1 year out of college. How Torre will use Joba also needs to be considered. I’m not the biggest fan of Joe Torre’s bullpen management because he tends to overuse guys when they’re going well and under use them if he doesn’t trust them. Ideally, I think the Yankee brass would have liked to have Edwar Ramirez in this spot, but since Torre was determined not to use him, they’re going to Joba. I hope this works out and that this doesn’t impact his long term ability to be a starter. He needs more time to refine his game, but has overpowering raw stuff, so maybe this will all work out. I would love to see SG run some sort of MLE projection of what Joba can contribute…taking into account guys getting better when they go to the pen and such things. Thanks, SG.
-Ian Kennedy was very good in his first AAA start. Ian has done a terrific job in the minors this season, but guys with average fastballs don’t get shots to help out the bullpen. One thing that I do like though is that Kennedy is being given the opportunity to get his innings totals so that, hopefully, it won’t be too difficult for him to transition to a 6-month season next year. This is something that Joba or Hughes may struggle with next year due to their relatively light workloads.
-Speaking of Phil…Phil didn’t seem to have his best command today, missing off the edges a bit, but still got the job done. He kept the ball down in the zone, even when missing, and was able to turn in a Wang-ian performance. Hughes’ next start will be in the big leagues and not a moment too soon. The Kei Igawa Experience has been…underwhelming.
-Looks like I jumped the gun on Austin Jackson cooling down. He’s swinging at everything and hitting it hard, impressive stuff.
-Jesus Montero has had a nice start to his pro career, .282/.364/.487 in 39 ABs with a 5:8 BB:K ratio.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Rushing?
-Phil Hughes was terrific tonight. His fastball was in the low 90s all night and he was locating it to the corners. He was getting both of his curveballs over for strikes and swings and misses and he even did a solid job of flashing the change. He might need one more outing to get his pitch count up, but stuff wise he’s good to go. The sooner the better, I tire of Kei Igawa.
-I don’t think Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain are being rushed. They’ve both done enough this season to convince me that they’re better than AA. At the same time, I do think they’re being rushed. Neither has demonstrated that they’re at a level where there is nothing more that they can learn from the AA experience. I would think the Yankees realize this, but feel that the promotion is a necessary step in figuring out how close these two are to contributing to next year’s rotation. For Joba, it is also probably a test to see how much he might help this year’s bullpen. Considering this, I support the promotions.
-To clarify, when I made my comment about Clippard losing his shot to be a part of the Yankee rotation I didn’t mean that he would never recover. Clippard has less stuff than Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy (probably). However, prior to this year he was more ready as far as inning totals and minor league level. Now, all 3 of those guys are ahead of him in terms of readiness, which means they are more than likely going to get full shots at a rotation spot before he does. Even assuming injuries, just having guys ahead of him lessens his shot.
-Despite rocky outings his last two times out, I’m curious as to how well Alan Horne has to pitch before he gets Ross Ohlendorf’s AAA rotation spot.
-After a terrible mid-season slump, Francisco Cervelli seems to be getting back on track. He’s 10 for his last 30 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homer, 2 walks, and 5 Ks.
-After a tremendous start, Austin Jackson has cooled down. He’s only hitting .256 with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last 10 games. Hopefully, he can start drawing walks again so he’s not using up as many outs.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Ryan Bradley Memorial
http://blog.nj.com/ledgeryankees/2007/07/chamberlain_kennedy_promoted.html
Kenney and Chamberlain were promoted to AAA with Wright and Clippard moved down to AA. This move speaks volumes about how highly the Yankees think of these two. The Wright demotion makes perfect sense, in my opinion, but I would have liked to see Clippard get some more time to overcome whatever problems he’s facing. It looks like any shot he ever had at consistent rotation time is now gone.
More later.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Happy Catch Up Time
Injuries/News:
Tim Norton is rumored to be done for the year with major shoulder surgery, which pretty much means he’s done as a prospect…George Kontos finally returned last night…Brett Gardner returned from the DL during my silent period…Jesus Montero WILL play this year, hopefully by the end of the month…Eric Duncan has been placed on the DL with a thumb injury that has been bothering him all season according to the SWBY blog. On the one hand, it makes me hopeful that Duncan has an explanation for his poor performance, on the other hand, there always seem to be an excuse…
AAA:
The Yankee AAA rotation was supposed to be a source of excitement, but that can no longer be said. Clippard is in the bigs, Ohlendorf and Hughes are injured, and Steven Jackson has been moved to the bullpen, finally. Matt DeSalvo and Steve White are plugging away, but neither guy is terribly impressive.
On the offensive side, there’s not much to look for as Alberto Gonzalez continues to struggle and Eric Duncan has returned to the disabled list. The June sample size is small, but thus far Gonzalez has a 2007 OPS trend of .668, .605, and .527.
AA:
The recent news at AA is far more positive. Brett Gardner has returned from the disabled list and is playing extremely well. He is hitting .455/.520/.591 in 6 games back and his season line is up to a somewhat respectable .259/.357/.384. I wasn’t a huge fan of Gardner coming into the season and I still am not, but he’s been showing enough secondary skills to make himself interesting as a potential future reserve.
Unlike Brett Gardner, Cody Ehlers is struggling since coming off the DL. Ehlers seems to be trying to hit for power as his positive BB:K ratio from has been replaced by a ratio of 3:10 in June. While it has resulted in more power, it hasn’t been enough to make his line look good as his June stands at .213/.250/.340. For the season he is at .226/.317/.315 and with Juan Miranda raking in Tampa, he might not have much time left to correct himself.
With the recent promotions of Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy, the AA rotation now goes Chamberlain-Marquez-Horne-Kennedy-Smith. Wow. AAA was supposed to be impressive, but this quintet blows that one out of the water. Joba was impressive in his first AA start despite throwing a lot of pitches. However, that’s bound to happen when you strike out 9 guys in 5 innings. Chamberlain is still primarily a fastball pitcher, with his slider showing flashes, but he’s one of the few guys with a truly dominant fastball, it could probably be described as plus plus, so that’s ok for now.
During the offseason, Jeff Marquez mentioned that it was the development of his curveball that allowed him to start getting more strikeouts in the 06 season. During a recent interview with Pinstripes Plus, Marquez mentioned that he had struggled somewhat with the curve this year, but seemed to be getting the hang of it again and in his last 13 innings he’s struck out 13 men. It seems he has a good idea of how his repertoire works.
Ian Kennedy had a better go of it in his second AA start and so far so good. There are rumors Kennedy has touched 94 recently, I’m not so sure about that. If it’s true, and it becomes a consistent for him, it obviously helps his prospect status quite a bit. If not, he’s still a solid prospect.
Alan Horne and Brett Smith both continued to lay waste to AA batters. If you’re an EL hitter, you have to HATE facing Trenton. They have a team ERA of 2.38 and the second place team is at 3.51.
A+:
The Tampa lineup has been a bit of a feel good story. Marcos Vechionacci is as hot as he has been in his minor league career, Juan Miranda is hitting like Barry Bonds, Colin Curtis is proving that slow and steady wins the race, and the Tampa offense is doing all right for itself.
Jose Tabata is plugging along, doing well enough to keep respectable numbers, but not breaking out enough to need a promotion. It was recently rumored that Tabata has a cyst on his wrist, which is supposedly the source of his power troubles and wrist/hand maladies, but there has been no official word on it. Either way, to this point, Tabata’s prospect status has dimmed just a bit for me. Still an excellent prospect, it’s just that he’s looking more like a future Bobby Abreu than something otherworldly.
Francisco Cervelli is in the midst of a huge slump. He’s hitting just .188 in his last 10 games and his overall line is down to .302/.421/.407. That’s still a terrific line for a 21-year-old C in the FSL. If he can correct himself, or even just maintain his current line, Cervelli would have done a TON to enhance his prospect status this year.
Daniel McCutchen and George Kontos have replaced Kennedy and Chamberlain as the top two in the rotation. They aren’t as exciting a duo, but they get the job done. Kontos was out for a while with an undisclosed injury. It was rumored to be something having to do with the shoulder, but I REALLY REALLY think it was disciplinary action. Either way Kontos returned last night and pitched very well 4-2-0-0-1-6-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR) and McCutchen pitched well today 6-7-0-0-1-4-0. Hopefully, both guys can keep up the good work.
A-:
Ivan Nova continues to get the job done, but in a scary way. A guy throwing as hard as Nova, consistent low 90s and touching the mid 90s, should not have only 19 strikeouts in 43 innings. Even if his secondary pitches were all awful, and they’re not, you would expect more Ks at that level on the basis of his fastball. Until he starts getting the strikeouts up, I can’t get too excited about him.
While Nova has struggled with the lack of Ks, Mike Dunn has just struggled with what appears to be fatigue. He’s getting the job done, but not in an especially pretty matter.
The Charleston offense has been terrific lately. Mitch and Austin have been getting on base fairly consistently and Seth Fortenberry, who is in serious need of a promotion, has been driving them in. Jose Gil has continued to show flashes of power, which seems to be at the cost of his plate discipline, and Eduardo Nunez is struggling. The Yankees recently turned Nunez from a SH to a RHB, so when looking at his season numbers, keep this in mind.
Spotlight On:
Trenton, probably.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Stealing The Show
Injuries/News:
Cody Ehlers is rehabbing and should be back in Trenton sometime within a week…Great Joba footage (hat tip to PP forums)...As for the majors, Clippard has average velocity on a regular day and today he didn’t even have that. He also didn’t have any control. He was also facing a lineup heavily slanted to RH power bats. Despite all this, he somewhat luckily managed to go 5 innings and give up just 3 runs to earn his 2nd major league victory. Given how poorly Igawa and DeSalvo pitched this week, that is probably good enough to give Clip at least one more start as the 5th starter. Actually, given that Hughes is likely out until August, we could be seeing a lot of Clippard over the next two months. For a guy who wasn’t very highly regarded coming through the minors, this might be a make or break career opportunity.
AAA:
Steven Jackson was getting results early in the game, but his stuff didn’t look very crisp and by the end of his outing, it caught up with him. Jackson’s final line, 6-8-5-5-3-5-1 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR), fits in nicely with the rest of his year, which is not a good thing. He needs a demotion or some time off to fix himself because he’s been throwing BP for the better part of the season.
Alberto Gonzalez had a quiet night, going 0 for 3 and Eric Duncan collected 1 of Scranton’s 4 hits, going 1 for 4 with a K. Duncan had good ABs, as is his custom, and a hard hit out to left center, which is another custom of Duncan’s game.
AA:
Nothing to see.
A+:
Juan Miranda’s extra base hit streak ended as his lone hit in 4 at bats was a single. Colin Curtis was the only other prospect of note to get a hit; he was 2 for 4 with a strikeout. And what about the rest of the guys? Jose Tabata, Reegie Corona, Francisco Cervelli, and Marcos Vechionacci were a combined 0 for 12 with 1 walk and 2 HBPs. Hey, at least they didn’t strike out.
A-:
The longest hit streak in SAL history now belongs to Mitch Hilligoss. Mitch was 1 for 5 with a walk and a strikeout as he got a bunt single to extend his streak to 36 games. He also stole his 7th base of the year. Austin Jackson had a rough game, going 1 for 5 with 3 strikeouts. Seth Fortenberry has been stealing the show from Mitch and Austin. The LF was 3 for 5 with a homer and a walk. His season line is up to .278/.365/.485 as he has gone 15 for his last 34 with 3 doubles, 4 homers, 7 walks, and 5 strikeouts in that span. With Fortenberry being 23 years old, it might be time for a promotion.
Sunday, May 27, 2007
Joba For President
Injuries/News:
Steve White will be back soon, destination unknown.
AAA:
Eric Duncan was 2 for 3 with a walk to get his average up to .231. With the walk, Duncan’s K:BB ratio inched ever closer to becoming even. Alberto Gonzalez also had a 2-hit game, going 2 for 4 with a strikeout to reach .247.
Chris Britton pitched a scoreless inning of relief, granting 1 hit. Britton’s ERA dropped to .78. In 23 innings he has given up 20 hits and 9 walks while striking out 26.
AA:
The big news out of AA was Brett Smith’s first poor outing of the year. Smith’s line of 5-7-3-3-2-2-1 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR) would have made sense in year’s past, but not this time around. It could be just a blip on the radar in an otherwise tremendous season, or it could be a sign that Smith is beginning to cool off from the season long hot streak he’s been on.
A+:
Despite not picking up the victory, Joba Chamberlain was outstanding. Joba would post a final line of 8-2-0-0-2-9-0 while tossing 98 pitches. The most impressive part of the outing was that Chamberlain seemed to get stronger as the game went on, generating a ton of swings and misses in his last 3 innings. The Yankees have been slow to promote Ian Kennedy to AA despite his dominance, and I think that can be blamed on them wanting to promote Joba and Ian at the same time. Following this start, I can’t see the duo staying in Tampa past mid-June.
Jose Tabata was 1 for 4 with a walk, a double, and a strikeout. Tabata has hit 2 of his 6 doubles on the year in the last 3 games. Most impressive in his ABs today was the patience Jose was demonstrating. Reegie Corona does not seem to be seeing the ball well, as he went 1 for 4 with a walk and a strikeout. The box score wasn’t that bad, but Reegie had a lot of swings and misses and was able to put together a decent game in spite of that. The poorest showing of the day, however, belonged to Marcos Vechionacci. Marcos was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts and when he did make contact, it was excessively weak. Francisco Cervelli was 1 for 3 with a double and a strikeout and Colin Curtis was 1 for 4 with a walk. Both guys had the types of at bats that would have them classified as professional hitters by announcers across America. Unfortunately, while Curtis is heating up, Cervelli seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Francisco has struck out at least once in 9 straight games, including 2 games where he struck out thrice. He has 13 strikeouts in the last 36 at bats.
A-:
33. Mitch Hilligoss was 1 for 4 with a walk and a strikeout to push his streak to 33 games. Mitch has managed just 1 hit in 4 of the last 5 games, so it would seem that the streak is nearing its conclusion. Austin Jackson was 2 for 5 with a double and Jose Gil was 1 for 3 with a walk as the Charleston offense posted 6 runs on 11 hits. The member of the lineup most responsible for the scoring was Seth Fortenberry, who was 3 for 5 with his 9th double and 7th homer. Despite my love for age relative to league, I have a soft spot for Seth, so I’m happy to see that he seems to be warming up.
Mike Dunn, who definitely seems to be going through some type of fatigue, had a line of 5-7-3-3-1-5-0. It was good enough to pick up Dunn’s 5th victory of the year. As a converted pitcher, it makes sense that Dunn might have more battles with fatigue than the other guys on the farm.
Spotlight On:
Alan Horne and his 6:1 K:BB ratio going for Trenton.
Thursday, January 18, 2007
4: Joba Chamberlain
Joba Chamberlain, 21, RHPPreviously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 11th, Baseball America 4th, John Sickels 4th (B)
Physical Ability: Joba Chamberlain is yet another big bodied Yankee hurler. Standing 6’3’’ and listed at 225, Joba has actually been considered too big at times. As you would hope with a guy his size, Joba also possesses a terrific fastball. Joba The Hutt typically pitches in the mid 90s with his fastball and can even get it up to the high 90s at times. In addition to throwing his fastball very hard, Joba has uncanny control and command of the pitch. His repertoire is rounded out with a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. At the moment, none of these pitches is anything to write home about. Fortunately, they aren’t terrible either. The slider has shown the most promise thus far. It will be interesting to see whether the Yankees let him be with that as his breaking ball of choice or try and push him towards the curveball as is the organizational preference. As I’ve alluded to, Chamberlain has struggled with his weight at times. Some feel that his struggles with a knee injury during college can be attributed to carrying too much weight. It remains to be seen how much of a problem that, as well as his triceps tendonitis of the past year, will be in the pros.
What Happened in ‘06: Like just about every other Yankee draft pick in 2006, Chamberlain was an early favorite to go in the first round. In fact, he was projected in the top 10. However, due to the aforementioned injury concerns, which led to poor performance, Joba fell on draft day. Unlike a guy such as Ian Kennedy, Joba did not have much, if any, track record to fall back on as he had only emerged as a legitimate prospect the year prior. Fortunately for Joba he has greater physical talent than Kennedy and once he was signed and allowed to play, he made teams begin to regret their decision to pass on him. Chamberlain’s pro debut was in the resurrected Hawaiian Baseball League where he was probably the league’s best pitcher. While his control wasn’t as good as the 46:3 K:BB ratio would indicate, it was still impressive. More impressive was his command, especially on the occasions where he would fall behind batters only to perfect place a pitch and get opposing hitters to turn hitter’s counts into outs.
What Lies Ahead: Chamberlain will most likely begin 2007 in Tampa. I don’t expect him to be long for Tampa. In fact, I hope/think his 2007 will look a lot like Phil Hughes’ 2006. Despite that, I think he’s further away at this point than Phil Hughes was a year ago. In terms of top pitching prospects, Joba is more Mike Pelfrey than Phil Hughes. In other words, he’s going to be able to get at least decent minor league results because he has an overpowering fastball. What will determine how quickly he can be ready is getting one of his secondary offerings, most likely the slider, to the point where he can give batters a different look. Developing those secondary pitches will help him have the means to get outs against quality left-handed batters.
Grade: While Clippard lacks stuff, Joba lacks a performance record. While Clippard has never missed a turn in the rotation (hey, more Barry Zito similarities), Joba has injury concerns. Overall, I think they’re fairly comparable pitching prospects and I’m going to err on the side of potential and “tools”. We’ll see how it turns out. Hopefully, Joba makes good on his ability and can give the Yankees some terrific years near the front of the rotation. B
Tyler Clippard 5
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Baseball America: Top 10 Yankees Prospects
1. Phil Hughes, RHP2. Jose Tabata, OF
3. Dellin Betances, RHP
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP
5. Ian Kennedy, RHP
6. Chris Garcia, RHP
7. Tyler Clippard, RHP
8. J. Brent Cox, RHP
9. Mark Melancon, RHP
10. Brett Gardner,
Not a big fan of Brett Gardner, but otherwise the list seems to be as expected.
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