Saturday, December 27, 2003

Not So Vlad

Here we go again:

Player A: .260/.311/.414(AVG/OBP/SLG) .243 GPA
Player B: .276/.330/.450(AVG/OBP/SLG) .261 GPA
Player C: .333/.377/.544(AVG/OBP/SLG) .306 GPA

Many Yankee fans who give even the slightest bit of attention to the “farm system”, if one can call it that, should recognize the first line as that of Rudy Guillen. Guillen is yet another of baseball’s 5-tool prospects. This meaning he has the raw ability needed to hit for average, hit for power, run, throw, and field. The reports on Guillen are that he is ok defensively with a good right fielder’s arm, though he plays the majority of his games in center at this time. Most believe he is destined for right field, which he has patrolled in the minors also, this should be a good place for him and he apparently may be able to be at least an average defender there.

Offensively, just looking at Guillen’s season in the purest of forms, it is apparent that he could probably serve to improve his walk rate. However, this need is not as drastic because he only struck out in about 18% of his at bats, which leads me to believe that he has some idea of the process of swinging at pitches one likes. Guillen also displayed good raw power as 36% of his hits went for extra bases. This, accompanied with the fact that he has plenty of room to fill out his 6’3’’ 180 pound frame, leads me to believe Guillen has some pretty good power potential.

Now here is where the Player B comparison comes in handy, for you see, Player A and Player B are actually one and the same. The difference being, that Player A is Gullen for the entire season, and Player B is Guillen from April 30th to the end of the season. Why April 30th? Because Guillen, for whatever reason, began the season hitting horribly and this is around the time he began to turn things around. Perhaps the greatest difference, and most encouraging part of this transformation is that Guillen’s BB:K ratio was about .5 from April 30th on, this, combined with his relatively insignificant K rate, leads me to believe that Guillen does have a better understanding of the strike zone than many would give him credit for and I can see him being the type of player to average about 60 or so BBs per season. Guillen’s other peripherals remained at about the same ratios as his overall season performance.

I felt that Guillen was somewhat overrated by Baseball America following his Gulf Coast League season*, but with one full season under his belt I now feel much more confident about his abilities. With the usual prospect caveats of health and continued progression, I see Guillen becoming the type of hitter can give a team 30-35 HRs along with a line of .290/.355/.525(AVG/OBP/SLG) .291GPA, all in all a good right fielder.

*The main reason I felt Guillen was overrated was that he was being compared to Vladimir Guerrero, who in his age 19 minor league season put up the line belonging to Player C.

Comments

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