Tuesday, May 29, 2007

2007 Draft Preview (Part 1)

This year will mark the first time that the Major League Baseball draft will be televised. Tune to ESPN2 on June 7th at 2PM to check it out. The MLB Draft is much more difficult to peg than the drafts of the other major sports since the players selected often don’t make a difference for a few years. This means rather than draft for a need, teams are drafting whoever their scouting staff has decided is the best player available, and there’s almost never a consensus as to who that is. All that noted, I’d like to highlight a few players that could be available for the Yankees’ first two selections in the draft. I’m determining availability by first checking out players who Baseball America has ranked around where the Yankees are set to pick and from there making adjustments for guys who supposedly will have high bonus demands and the like. This is unscientific, I’m not a scout, and the guys I recommend will be based on my personal biases.

Pick #30:

Kevin Ahrens, 3B, HS - B:S T:R - 6’1’’ 180 - I’m not hopeful of him being available when the Yankees’ first pick rolls around, but this is the guy that I’m in love with right now. Ahrens seems to be a polished hitter with room for growth on his 6’1’’ frame. There also seems to be good reason to believe that he will develop solid power as he firms up his left-handed swing. The negatives to his game are that he’s currently a SS/3B and might be headed to 3B and then from there may even slide further down the defensive spectrum. Overall, he’s got good defensive tools, but his speed is already below average and may get worse. At first, this concerned me, but I just have a good feeling about Ahrens being one of those guys who’ll work at it and be able to stick.

Tim Alderson, RHP, HS - B:R T:R - 6’7’’ 210 - Alderson is a tall RHP that throws in the low 90s. He’s got a weird herky jerky delivery that, honestly, terrifies me. That combined with the fact that there’s already a scouting school of thought that his future role would be as a closer, just makes Alderson a no go for me.

Corey Brown, OF, College - B:L T:L - 6’2’’ 210 - Brown is an OF that can kind of play all positions and has solid tools with a solid performance record. Doesn’t seem to be a guy with a terribly high ceiling and, in addition, he’s got some makeup concerns in his past as well as having struggled with strikeouts during his college career. No go.

Michael Burgess, OF, HS - B:L T:L - 5’11’’ 200 - Burgess hails from the same high school as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield, and Elijah Dukes. However, he hasn’t had any red flags raised about his behavior to this point. Burgess currently plays CF, but judging by his lower half, his general build, and his arm strength, he’s definitely going to end up in RF. Despite his struggles this year, Burgess was ranked highly going into the year, but has dropped a bit with a disappointing senior campaign; I think he’s still a pretty good prospect. However, I also think he’s a project and given the spotty track record that the Yankees have had developing position players, I don’t think they can be trusted with a project.

Chris Carpenter, RHP, College - B:R T:R - 6’4’’ 210 - Carpenter is a college trained righty with a good fastball, but not much else. He’s had a bit of an injury history, including Tommy John, and as a result isn’t even as polished as you would expect a guy coming out of college to be. Furthermore, there are questions about how good his secondary arsenal is, so he might just be a reliever at the next level. Not a fan.

Brett Cecil, LHP, College - B:R T:L - 6’2’’ 225 - Cecil is a college lefty who’s worked really hard to get where he is. He wasn’t highly regarded coming out of high school, but now possesses a low 90s fastball and a great slider. I did not mention a change-up because, apparently, he doesn’t have one. Cecil is projected as a reliever and, in my book that automatically makes him a no for the first pick.

Matt Latos, RHP, CC - B:R T:R - 6’5’’ 210 - Latos was one of the more highly regarded high school pitchers in last year’s draft, but has gone unsigned due to bonus demands. While Latos throws hard, he doesn’t seem to offer much other than that, at least on a consistent basis. Because of that, I’m not so enamored with him.

Michael Main, RHP/OF, HS - B:R T:R - 6’1’’ 171 - Main’s been front and center on the prospect radar since being featured in Baseball America as a 15-year-old. He’s highly regarded both as a pitcher and an outfielder. The consensus seems to be that he will be drafted as a pitcher and there’s enough there for the Yankees to work with. He throws hard, but doesn’t have the greatest movement on his fastball and he’s got iffy secondary stuff. Despite being a short right-hander, Main seems to have projection to him in that he’s very thin and he doesn’t seem to get full extension in his delivery. He would probably be a good pick for the Yankees, but it’s doubtful he will be on the board at pick 30.

Jack McGeary, LHP/1B, HS - B:L T:L - 6’3’’ 200 - McGeary is a big bodied lefty who, at the moment, only throws high 80s and 90. Despite this, he seems like one of those guys who’s going to go to pro ball, figure things out, and start getting more consistent low 90s velocity. He also has a pretty good curveball and a change-up that’s shown signs of life as a legitimate pitch. The Yankee organization would love that repertoire and I think he’d be a solid first round pick for the Yanks, if available.

Devin Mesoraco, C, HS - B:R T:R - 6’1’’ 195 - Mesoraco has great tools for a C, for the position he is plus in every category, and combines that with what seems to be a great work ethic (one of those hustle all the time players). C is one of the Yankee minor league organizational weaknesses as well as a position that is generally tough to fill. Prior to going to crap, Jeff Mathis was one of the more highly ranked prospects around, and Mesoraco seems to be around those lines, but with a slightly better physical package due to superior speed and arm strength. Another guy I would love to have in the organization, but I’m doubtful he’ll be around.

Will Middlebrooks, 3B/RHP, HS - B:R T:R - 6’4’’ 215 - Similar to Ahrens, the primary concerns about Middlebrooks are in regards to his range. He’s also being recruited to the same school as Ahrens, but isn’t entirely the same prospect. Ahrens is regarded as more polished, with Middlebrooks offering more ceiling, especially in terms of power. He’s another guy I would love for the Yankees to pick up at number 30. As a plus, he’s shown signs of being a good pitching prospect, so if he can’t hit, after a couple years you can turn him into a pitcher and still recoup on your investment.

Aaron Poreda, LHP, College - B:L T:L - 6’6’’ 240 - Poreda burst onto the scene as a prospect this year. He’s a lefty with a mid 90s fastball so he’s going to attention, but beyond that, he doesn’t offer much. His performance is spotty, understandable considering his recent emergence, his secondary pitches aren’t anything to get too excited about, and according to BA, despite the low walk totals he lacks command. Not interested in a first round college pick that’s going to be this much of a project.

Kyle Russell, OF, College - B:L T:L - 6’5’’ 185 - Russell’s made headlines this Spring by rewriting the University of Texas record books, but I can’t say I would be happy if the Yankees drafted him. When a guy puts up huge offensive numbers and scouts don’t make much noise about him, it gives me reason to pause and reconsider what the guy has done and whether or not that will translate to the next level. His offensive performance was also not without its warts as he struck out a lot. Other than the power, which scouts are only calling plus, Russell does not bring much to the table and I don’t think a 1-tool guy, no matter how good the tool, or a reliever, no matter how good the reliever, should ever be picked in the first round.

Nick Schmidt, LHP, College - B:L T:L - 6’5’’ 230 - Schmidt is a pretty safe first round pick. Based on his scouting reports, I think of a bigger, slightly harder throwing Brad Halsey. I advocated for the Yankees to give Halsey some innings at the back of the rotation while he was here, but can’t advocate for the drafting of Schmidt.

Brad Suttle, 3B, College - B:S T:R 6’2’’ 213 - Suttle is a college 3B with a fairly unexciting scouting report. There are questions about whether he will stick at 3B due to those pesky range issues and there’s nothing about him that scouts are raving about, he just seems like a good bet to be a solid player. As a safe position player, he reminds me of Matt Antonelli from last year’s draft, but perhaps less athletic. That’s not a good thing. I was terrified of the Yankees picking Antonelli then and while I won’t say I’m terrified of the Yankees picking Suttle, I wouldn’t be happy.

All of this established here are my top 5 guys I would like to see the Yankees pursue with the number 30 pick, assuming they are available:

1. Kevin Ahrens, 3B
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
3. Devin Mesoraco, C
4. Jack McGeary, LHP
5. Michael Main, RHP

More draft coverage later in the week.

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