Saturday, May 19, 2007
Tyler Clippard Day
Injuries/News:
Since my last post, Marcos Vechionacci has returned from his lengthy stay on the disabled list. This leaves Tim Norton and George Kontos as the remaining DL casualties of unknown injury timetable.
The big news for today is that Tyler Clippard will be making his major league debut. I’ve been a huge fan of Clippard since he was drafted in the 9th round of the 2003 First Year Player Draft and as a result I am incredibly excited to see him reach the big stage. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Clippard’s start tonight will be the biggest start in the history of Major League Baseball, ever. The first reason why is that the Yankees are currently playing terrible baseball and have dug themselves an almost insurmountable hole in the division. If they want any chance at making the playoffs, the charge needs to begin now. The second reason is that Tyler Clippard has been one of the most controversial prospects in recent memory. He’s always put up eye catching stats, but scouts have been slow to warm to him. Despite scouts’ concerns about Clippard, he has, in my uneducated opinion, a good repertoire. He throws a fastball regularly clocked at 89-91 MPH, touching 92, a change-up at about 80 and a curveball around 75. Clippard’s change-up is his best pitch, his curve his second best, and his fastball a third offering. In the past Tyler has struggled with keeping the ball down, but has done a pretty good job of that this year. I’m cautiously optimistic about his chances.
AAA:
Due to injuries, both at the major league and minor league level, the AAA pitching rotation has become very uninteresting outside of Steve Jackson and Chase Wright. Even focusing on those two, the rotation isn’t that interesting. Jackson was knocked around in his last outing, with a line of 5.2-10-6-6-2-3-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR). Jackson’s ERA is now up to 5.53 and he has just had an extremely uninspiring year. Jackson is looking more and more like Ramiro Mendoza Red Sox edition and less like Ramiro Mendoza Yankee edition. This is not a good thing.
Chase Wright’s start today was uninspiring in the sense that he is just continuing to get lucky rather than actually pitch well. With a final line of 7.2-6-3-2-3-2-0, Wright now has a AAA ERA of 2.93 despite an 8:13 K:BB ratio in 27.2 innings. Given Rasner’s injury, if Clippard does poorly today, Wright may be back in the bigs.
Alberto Gonzalez is 4 for his last 15 with a double, 3 walks, and a strikeout. The 3 walks in the stretch are half of his total for the year, which really hurts when you have a .235 AVG. Eric Duncan was 4 for 16 with a double, 3 walks, and a strikeout. One strange thing about Duncan’s performance this year, other than the extremely low BABIP, is that he has really struggled against LHP. Despite being a LHB, Eric has actually hit LHP better than he’s hit RHP over the last two years. Hopefully this means he’s going to begin hitting lefties again and get his AVG out of the low .200s.
AA:
With the AAA rotation starting to feel the crunch of constant roster movement, the AA guys continued to shine and wait for their chance. Brett Smith, Jeff Marquez, and Alan Horne put up a combined line of 20-11-6-6-6-16-1 during the past week. Based on his peripherals, Marquez isn’t quite where he needs to be yet, but the reports from those who’ve seen him have been glowing, so I’m not going to worry much, if at all, but I will acknowledge that his ERA is due for some correction. Smith has been a beast with run prevention and Alan Horne has put up phenomenal peripherals. Overall, the pitching at the major league level has been righting itself as of late, and the minor league prospects are serving notice that the club should not have to worry about pitching in the future.
A+:
Ian Kennedy, Daniel McCutchen, and Joba Chamberlain continued to perform as the FSL version of the Smith, Marquez, and Horne. The combined line of the advanced A trio was 18.2-14-5-5-4-23. Kennedy has done a terrific job overall, but I am a bit worried by his walk total, 18 in 44 innings. When these guys are promoted may depend on some of the people behind them. I would like to see the Trenton Three go to AAA, and the Tampa Three to AA as soon as possible. The only problem is that other than Michael Dunn, there are really no easy choices to step into the Tampa rotation.
Reegie Corona is 4 for his last 19 with 1 double, 1 homer, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts, and 3 steals. I wasn’t a big believer in Corona prior to this season, but the way he’s been playing this year as well as the way he looked in the Clemens game has me reconsidering my evaluation. Corona seems to have a live body with room for growth, a solid sense of the strike zone, good range, and a solid arm. He might not be a star, but looks to be a good player nonetheless. He just has to get more under control in the field and not rush the game too much. With Robinson Cano’s nightmare season, middle infield prospects in the Yankee organization are becoming important once again.
Jose Tabata is 6 for his last 22 with 1 walk and 3 strikeouts in that stretch. There was a point this off-season when I was considering placing Tabata ahead of Hughes on my prospect ranking. It was partially to be controversial and partially because I didn’t feel there was much difference between the two as prospects. However, I decided against it because doing it just to be controversial would have been stupid and because I couldn’t get over my fears about his history of hand injuries and his weight. Spring training came and it seemed all was well. Tabata looked to be in better shape than he was last year and he was driving the ball, but a month and a half into the season and Tabata is having trouble driving the ball, expected in the FSL, and is very much out of shape, not as expected. I scoffed at the initial Baseball America reports of Tabata being 220 pounds, but now I’m not sure. Making matters worse, Tabata seems to be loafing, both at the plate and in the field. While I hope Tabata can work his way back into shape, he has established himself as a guy who struggles to keep his weight under control and that is going to be a huge mark against his prospect status.
Juan Miranda is 3 for his last 16 with a home run, a walk, and 4 strikeouts. Miranda’s performance has been highly uninspiring, but he stood out in the Clemens game as an impressive physical specimen. He has monstrous forearms and despite being at least 24 years old, looks like he has room on his frame to get even bigger. I’m not sure he’s going to hit much, but he could probably sell a few jeans.
Colin Curtis was 2 for 10 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Curtis is really struggling at the moment, which is something a guy with questionable tools can’t afford to do, as he will be buried quickly. Colin didn’t leave much of a lasting impression in the Clemens game as he seemed to be your run of the mill scrappy player.
Francisco Cervelli was 3 for 11 with a double, a homer, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts. My concern when I saw Cervelli play last year was his discipline or lack thereof. This season his statistics have shown him to be a much more disciplined hitter and he looked the part as well. I’ve been straddling the fence a bit on him, but right now I’m a big Cervelli backer. He is probably a Top 3 position prospect in the system at the moment. Hopefully he finishes the year as strong as he started it and Posada does the same, so that we can then begin planning the Posada to Cervelli transfer.
After a month off with injury, Marcos Vechionacci returned to the lineup to go 0 for 7 with a walk. Vechionacci’s eye didn’t suffer any from the layoff, but his timing did as he is not squaring up with the ball when he swings. This is a critical year in Marcos’ development as I, and many others, have been waiting on him for some time now. He needs to get things going, which he seemed to be doing prior to his DL stint. Luckily for him, he’s only had 42 at bats, so even if things don’t go smooth immediately, he will have ample time to make his numbers look nice.
A-:
Michael Dunn and Ivan Nova both had good outings this past week. Dunn posted a 6.2-4-0-0-1-3-0 night and Nova had a 7-5-1-1-0-4-0 night. Both guys had rough outings last time out, so it was nice to see them bounce back. If Reyes can get his issues with the strike zone in control, the Yankees may have another pitching trio on their hands.
Mitch Hilligoss is now the proud owner of a 26 game hit streak. Over the last 5, Hilly was 7 for 20 with 2 walks, 6 strikeouts, and a steal. Hilly’s season line now stands at .323/.367/.406 (AVG/OBP/SLG). That isn’t too impressive and is a concern about his overall future effectiveness, but his flashy AVG and extended hit streak is also evidence of why scouts think he’s such a great pure hitter. Hopefully he’s one of the great pure hitters who is able to eventually develop some power; otherwise, that tool/skill won’t do him much good.
Austin Jackson is 6 for his last 19 with 3 doubles, a walk, 5 strikeouts, and 2 steals. The production has been solid, but the strikeout total is beginning to creep up again and more than anything else, that is what he needs to keep under control. Eduardo Nunez went 5 for his last 15 with 4 walks, 2 strikeouts, and 2 steals in 3 attempts. Despite only having 3 extra base hits through 39 games, I’ve been impressed with the way Eduardo has played. If he can continue to raise his average and pick up his walks, I’m comfortable, for now, with the lack of power.
Spotlight On:
Tyler Clippard going in the majors and Jeff Marquez going for Trenton. It should be an exciting day/night.
Housekeeping:
I just finished Finals this past week, I have LSATs on June 11th, and I begin work for the Yankees on Monday. If my posting slows, you know why.
Comments
Good luck with the LSAT work etc.
We have no great position prospects before 2010. Tabata smells like Ruben Rivera and Duncan plain stinks. However, our pitching prospects seem quite impressive. I dream of one day having young players who can run and play the field and perhaps hit for power (i.e. not Robbie Cano). Soriano is the only star position player who has come up through our system since Cashman took over as GM. I know there’s the Tampa/NY argument but the fact is Cashman took over as GM in 1997 and since then- a decade- we’ve had three (Soriano, Wang, & Cano) quality major leaguers come up through the system and excel in the pinstripes. If you also include guys we’ve traded- Lilly, Nick Johnson, and MAYBE Juan Rivera are the only one who comes to mind- it’s still a pathetic number of major leaguers coming up through what is probably the best-financed minor league system in baseball with the most money available for contracts. Am I missing something here? I’m not seeing how Cashman’s record- based on present, not future, performance- justifies him being considered anything more than an average GM at best. Sure, he is a great communicator and likeable guy but I don’t see any brilliance in his record. I hate to say it but that other dick is looking pretty smart getting Oliver Perez and John Maine for peanuts and making every other move work. Maybe he’s just getting lucky but it’s quite annoying.
To compare Tabata to Rivera at this point is absurd. Duncan, as I said before the season started, should have begun his season at Trenton. Cano will be an above average defensive 2Bman. He has good range and a strong arm, and will also have 20+ HR power.
The first draft that Cashman supervised was in 2006, so to pin the failure to produce position players on him is more than unfair, it’s inaccurate.
If this year’s draft is as productive as last year’s draft appears to be with regard to pitching prospects, it could yield multiple high ceiling position players, who are fairly close to the major leagues.
Cashman also did a very good job during the international signing period this year.
Cashman was only the nominal GM since 1998. In actuality, he was one member of George’s crack baseball committee, which was characterized by a shifting power base. He only gained full decision making power in October 2005. He, for example, according to all reports, wanted to sign Vlad instead of Sheff, and wanted to use the available funds to sign Beltran instead of trading for Johnson.
That said, he has made mistakes. His trades for Weaver, Vazquez, and Brown didn’t work out, and the Pavano signing was beyond awful. According to Joel Sherman, he could have had Owings for Johnson if he would have accepted a smaller overall package. He has admitted that he knew that Sanchez could require TJ surgery, and according to Bill Madden in today’s Daily News, “sources” say that he knew that Ohlendorf had pre-exisiting back issues.
Either way, he traded Sheff and RJ without getting any immediate help, which is problematic for a team whose “mission statement,” in his own words, is to win the WS every year.
btw, Good luck, Fabian.
PagsRags - The Yanks have trotted out Nick Johnson, Alfonso Soriano and Robbie Cano in the last 7 years, and off the top of my head, the only team I can think of that produced 3 position players that good in that span are the Twins with Mauer-Morneau-Cuddyer. The Yanks also produced Dioner Navarro, and they can take some of the credit for Wily Mo Pena. That’s not bad at all.
Good luck Fabian, hopefully you’ll be feeding us that inside info…(wink wink)
(seriously, you know my email address)
I’m really looking forward to Clippard today. The team itself is pretty depressing, but I still find it hard to believe there isn’t a ten game winning streak or something in the cards or some point to vault them back into wild card contention.
Yesterday was frustrating, but hell, at least the team showed some life and fire making the game exciting in the end. Torre is a fucking knobhead for sending Myers out there. There had to be, HAD to be, a better option than that. The guy is fucking completely impotent against a good right handed better and Wright basically gelded him on national TV. Really, the most logical thing to do in that situation is to just start with your best and go down the list, since you know you will probably need them all anyway. Rivera for two, Proctor for two, Bruney for two, Farnsworth for two, and close the game with, uh, Villone?
Pags - Good heavens, Johnson - Soriano - Cano is the 2nd best tandem you can think of? How about Rollins - Utley - Howard - Victorino - Burrell, McCann - Francoeur - K Johnson, Hardy - Weeks - Hall - Fielder, Hafner - Sizemore - Peralta, Youkilis - H Ramirez - Pedroia, or Swisher - Ethier - Crosby? Four of the five Yankees you list (Johnson, Cano, Navarro, and Pena) haven’t really done much of anything yet.
Sorry, that comment was really for Mike A.
On the other hand, the Yanks have (as Fabian pointed out) a very good catching prospect in Francisco Cervelli. If he keeps progressing, the Yanks will be stocked at the two most difficult positions to develop - namely starting pitching and catching. Their excess of the latter should, if need be, be able to net the odd position player.
So, how did Clippard get on the 40 man roster?
According to Joel Sherman, he could have had Owings for Johnson if he would have accepted a smaller overall package
ahh, if Sherman said it, it has to be true. color me skeptical.
Hafner - Sizemore - Peralta
Hafner came from the Rangers, Sizemore was traded to the Indians by none other than PagRags’ favorite GM Omar Minaya. Minaya traded one of the 5 best players in baseball for 1/2 a season of Bartolo Colon. sweet.
it’s still a pathetic number of major leaguers coming up through what is probably the best-financed minor league system in baseball with the most money available for contracts. Am I missing something here?
yes, the Yankees’ minor league system was NOT the best-financed for the last decade. the Yankees largely ignored the draft for a decade for whatever reasons.
Cashman, in one of his FIRST MOVES after consolidating his authority, was to start overseeing the draft and increasing the drafting budget. bingo, 2 good drafts in a row. doesn’t the fact that this was one of his first orders of business tell you it was something he WANTED to do earlier but didn’t have the authority for? that’s what i take from it.
So, how did Clippard get on the 40 man roster?
well, Rasner goes to the 60 day DL for starters…
Good luck on the LSATs Fabian. What’s your goal score? If you hit 165 you’re golden.
OK, OK- I may not be fully in tune with the inner power struggle that was the Yankees front office pre-2006 but it’s fair to say that the Yankees front-offcie, nominally led by Cashman, failed miserably.
I don’t love Omar Minaya, I hate him…but I to be fair and say, at this moment (a key qualifier), he appears to have made some brilliant moves. Getting that punk Oliver Perez as a throw-in; getting John Maine and trading Bannister instead; always somehow having a great bullpen without big names; signing up Wright and Reyes for peanuts; adding bench guys like Endy Chavez and Damian Easly; and generally changing the attitude of that organization. I hate that he is from NYC and understands the Mets/Yankees tension here. I am from NYC but I feel a lot of Yankee fans from CT or further away don’t understand how important it is to remain “the team” in NYC and widen the margin. The Yanks corporate attitude does not appeal to a lot of people and they shouldn’t have let the Mets have the BK Cyclones. But that is done and the Yankees have to market their team more aggressively in NYC, especially in BK. And they have to get rid of their broadcasters. This is not just a baseball competition, this is a business competition and Thee Mutts are competing with The Yankees as much or mre than Boston.
Oh, and I can’t say teh Weaver trade was terrible, even in retrospect, and looking at what Vazquez is doing now that was a decent trade as well. Lately it seems like teh atmosphere around The Yankees has been stifling talent.
for the record, i think Minaya is a pretty good GM.
but like the Yankees, the Mets needed to hit rock bottom (Kazmir trade) before ownership was ready to stay out of the kitchen and let the GM start making the decisions.
the difference is that when each occurred, the Yankees and Mets were in completely different positions from a roster/payroll perspective.
the Mets really had no where else to go but up. the Yankees were coming off a decade of success, yet were paying the price of that with a bloated roster of huge, unmovable contracts, older players, and a barren farm system.
the Mets had some young impact players waiting in the wings, and a few key acquisitions could make a huge difference quickly. it helps that this coincided with an era where the NL is MUCH weaker than the AL.
any wholesale changes the Yankees were going to make would have to take much longer. cashman is taking a much longer term strategy, so that he NEVER finds the organization again in the same state as it was 2 years ago. and that strategy begins with building up a massive talent pipeline from the farm, through spending more on the draft and on international signings, and remaining FLEXIBLE. he’s not above spending on guys like Clemens and Pettitte, but that means paying more for fewer years. he has seen the folly of 6-7 year deals, and as such, stayed away from the Zitos and Lees this off-season.
it is what it is. it’s a long term vision, and just looking at what has happened to some of the older players on the team this year, it HAD to be done. it’s a little painful, but i am not ready to declare it a failure after 42 games. especially just b/c the Mets are playing better right now.
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